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The Practical Realities of Local-Level Economic Evaluations: Toward Informed Decision Making in Health Care. 地方一级经济评估的实际现实:实现医疗保健领域的知情决策。
Q3 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Pub Date : 2024-04-17 eCollection Date: 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1177/23814683241247151
Todd H Wagner, Alayna Carrandi
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引用次数: 0
A Scoping Review of Personalized, Interactive, Web-Based Clinical Decision Tools Available for Breast Cancer Prevention and Screening in the United States. 对美国乳腺癌预防和筛查中可用的个性化、交互式、基于网络的临床决策工具的范围审查。
IF 1.9 Q3 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Pub Date : 2024-03-17 eCollection Date: 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1177/23814683241236511
Dalya Kamil, Kaitlyn M Wojcik, Laney Smith, Julia Zhang, Oliver W A Wilson, Gisela Butera, Jinani Jayasekera

Introduction. Personalized web-based clinical decision tools for breast cancer prevention and screening could address knowledge gaps, enhance patient autonomy in shared decision-making, and promote equitable care. The purpose of this review was to present evidence on the availability, usability, feasibility, acceptability, quality, and uptake of breast cancer prevention and screening tools to support their integration into clinical care. Methods. We used the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews Checklist to conduct this review. We searched 6 databases to identify literature on the development, validation, usability, feasibility, acceptability testing, and uptake of the tools into practice settings. Quality assessment for each tool was conducted using the International Patient Decision Aid Standard instrument, with quality scores ranging from 0 to 63 (lowest-highest). Results. We identified 10 tools for breast cancer prevention and 9 tools for screening. The tools included individual (e.g., age), clinical (e.g., genomic risk factors), and health behavior (e.g., alcohol use) characteristics. Fourteen tools included race/ethnicity, but no tool incorporated contextual factors (e.g., insurance, access) associated with breast cancer. All tools were internally or externally validated. Six tools had undergone usability testing in samples including White (median, 71%; range, 9%-96%), insured (99%; 97%-100%) women, with college education or higher (60%; 27%-100%). All of the tools were developed and tested in academic settings. Seven (37%) tools showed potential evidence of uptake in clinical practice. The tools had an average quality assessment score of 21 (range, 9-39). Conclusions. There is limited evidence on testing and uptake of breast cancer prevention and screening tools in diverse clinical settings. The development, testing, and integration of tools in academic and nonacademic settings could potentially improve uptake and equitable access to these tools.

Highlights: There were 19 personalized, interactive, Web-based decision tools for breast cancer prevention and screening.Breast cancer outcomes were personalized based on individual clinical characteristics (e.g., age, medical history), genomic risk factors (e.g., BRCA1/2), race and ethnicity, and health behaviors (e.g., smoking). The tools did not include contextual factors (e.g., insurance status, access to screening facilities) that could potentially contribute to breast cancer outcomes.Validation, usability, acceptability, and feasibility testing were conducted mostly among White and/or insured patients with some college education (or higher) in academic settings. There was limited evidence on testing and uptake of the tools in nonacademic clinical settings.

导言。针对乳腺癌预防和筛查的个性化网络临床决策工具可以弥补知识差距,提高患者在共同决策中的自主权,并促进公平护理。本综述旨在提供有关乳腺癌预防和筛查工具的可用性、可用性、可行性、可接受性、质量和使用率的证据,以支持将这些工具纳入临床护理。方法。我们使用《系统综述和元分析首选报告项目扩展范围综述核对表》进行了此次综述。我们检索了 6 个数据库,以确定有关工具的开发、验证、可用性、可行性、可接受性测试以及在实践中的应用情况的文献。我们使用国际患者决策辅助标准工具对每种工具进行了质量评估,质量评分范围为 0 至 63 分(最低-最高)。结果。我们确定了 10 种乳腺癌预防工具和 9 种筛查工具。这些工具包括个人(如年龄)、临床(如基因组风险因素)和健康行为(如饮酒)特征。有 14 种工具包括种族/民族,但没有一种工具包括与乳腺癌相关的背景因素(如保险、就医途径)。所有工具均经过内部或外部验证。六款工具在样本中进行了可用性测试,其中包括白人(中位数,71%;范围,9%-96%)、有保险(99%;97%-100%)、大学或以上学历(60%;27%-100%)的女性。所有工具都是在学术环境中开发和测试的。有七种(37%)工具显示出在临床实践中被采用的潜在证据。这些工具的平均质量评估分数为 21 分(范围为 9-39)。结论。关于乳腺癌预防和筛查工具在不同临床环境中的测试和使用情况的证据有限。在学术和非学术环境中开发、测试和整合工具可能会提高这些工具的使用率和公平性:根据个人临床特征(如年龄、病史)、基因组风险因素(如 BRCA1/2)、种族和民族以及健康行为(如吸烟),对乳腺癌结果进行了个性化处理。这些工具并不包括可能对乳腺癌结果产生潜在影响的环境因素(如保险状况、筛查设施的可及性)。验证、可用性、可接受性和可行性测试主要是在学术环境中对受过一定大学教育(或更高)的白人和/或投保患者进行的。有关在非学术临床环境中测试和使用这些工具的证据有限。
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引用次数: 0
Understanding the Impact of Different Modes of Information Provision on Preferences for a Newborn Bloodspot Screening Program in the United Kingdom. 了解不同信息提供模式对英国新生儿血斑筛查计划偏好的影响。
Q3 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Pub Date : 2024-03-04 eCollection Date: 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1177/23814683241232935
Stuart J Wright, Caroline M Vass, Fiona Ulph, Katherine Payne

Introduction. This study aimed to understand the impact of alternative modes of information provision on the stated preferences of a sample of the public for attributes of newborn bloodspot screening (NBS) in the United Kingdom. Methods. An online discrete choice experiment survey was designed using 4 attributes to describe NBS (effect of treatment on the condition, time to receive results, whether the bloodspot is stored, false-positive rate). Survey respondents were randomized to 1 of 2 survey versions presenting the background training materials using text from a leaflet (leaflet version) or an animation (animation version). Heteroskedastic conditional logistic regression was used to estimate the effect of mode of information provision on error variance. Results. The survey was completed by 1,000 respondents (leaflet = 525; animation = 475). Preferences for the attributes in the DCE were the same in both groups, but the group receiving the animation version had 9% less error variance in their responses. Respondents completing the animation version gave higher ratings compared with the leaflet version in terms of ease of perceived understanding. Subgroup analysis suggested that the animation was particularly effective at reducing error variance for women (20%), people with previous children (16.5%), and people between the ages of 35 and 45 y (11.8%). Limitations. This study used simple DCE with 4 attributes, and the results may vary for more complex choice questions. Conclusion. This study provides evidence that that supplementing the information package offered to parents choosing to take part in NBS with an animation may aid them their decision making. Further research would be needed to test the animation in the health system. Implications. Researchers designing DCE should carefully consider the design of their training materials to improve the quality of data collected.

Highlights: Prior to completing a discrete choice experiment about newborn bloodspot screening, respondents were shown information using either a leaflet-based or animated format.Respondents receiving information using an animation version reported that the information was slightly easier to understand and exhibited 9% less error variance in expressing their preferences for a newborn screening program.Using the animation version to present information appeared to have a larger impact in reducing the error variance of responses for specific respondents including women, individuals with children, individuals between the ages of 35 and 45 y, and individuals educated to degree level.

导言。本研究旨在了解英国新生儿血斑筛查(NBS)的其他信息提供方式对样本公众的既定偏好的影响。调查方法设计了一项在线离散选择实验调查,使用 4 个属性来描述 NBS(治疗对病情的影响、收到结果的时间、是否储存血点、假阳性率)。调查对象被随机分配到 2 个调查版本中的 1 个,这 2 个版本分别使用传单(传单版)或动画(动画版)中的文字介绍背景培训材料。采用异方差条件逻辑回归估计信息提供方式对误差方差的影响。结果共有 1000 名受访者完成了调查(传单版 = 525 人;动画版 = 475 人)。两组受访者对 DCE 中属性的偏好相同,但接受动画版本的受访者在回答中的误差方差减少了 9%。与传单版本相比,完成动画版本的受访者在易懂程度方面给出了更高的评分。分组分析表明,动画在减少女性(20%)、有过子女的人群(16.5%)和 35-45 岁人群(11.8%)的错误差异方面尤为有效。局限性。本研究使用了包含 4 个属性的简单 DCE,对于更复杂的选择问题,结果可能会有所不同。结论。本研究提供的证据表明,在向选择参加新生儿疾病筛查的父母提供的信息包中加入动画片可能有助于他们做出决定。需要进一步开展研究,在卫生系统中对动画进行测试。影响。设计离散实验的研究人员应仔细考虑培训材料的设计,以提高所收集数据的质量:在完成有关新生儿血斑筛查的离散选择实验之前,受访者会看到以传单或动画形式提供的信息。接受动画版信息的受访者表示,这些信息更容易理解,在表达他们对新生儿筛查项目的偏好时,误差方差减少了 9%。
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引用次数: 0
What Affects Perceived Trustworthiness of Online Medical Information and Subsequent Treatment Decision Making? Randomized Trials on the Role of Uncertainty and Institutional Cues. 是什么影响了在线医疗信息的可信度和随后的治疗决策?关于不确定性和机构线索作用的随机试验。
Q3 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Pub Date : 2024-02-15 eCollection Date: 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1177/23814683241226660
Gabriel Recchia, Karin S Moser, Alexandra L J Freeman
<p><p><b>Background.</b> Online, algorithmically driven prognostic tools are increasingly important in medical decision making. Institutions developing such tools need to be able to communicate the precision and accuracy of the information in a trustworthy manner, and so many attempt to communicate uncertainties but also use institutional logos to underscore their trustworthiness. Bringing together theories on trust, uncertainty, and psychological distance in a novel way, we tested whether and how the communication of uncertainty and the presence of institutional logos together affected trust in medical information, the prognostic tool itself, and treatment decisions. <b>Methods.</b> A pilot and 2 online experiments in which UK (experiment 1) and worldwide (experiment 2) participants (N<sub>total</sub> = 4,724) were randomized to 1 of 12 arms in a 3 (uncertainty cue) × 4 (institutional cue) between-subjects design. The stimulus was based on an existing medical prognostic tool. <b>Results.</b> Institutional trust was consistently associated with trust in the prognostic tool itself, while uncertainty information had no consistent effect. Institutional trust predicted the amount of weight participants reported placing on institutional endorsements in their decision making and the likelihood of switching from passive to active treatment in a hypothetical scenario. There was also a significant effect of psychological distance to (perceived hypotheticality of) the scenario. <b>Conclusions/Implications.</b> These results underline the importance of institutions demonstrating trustworthiness and building trust with their users. They also suggest that users tend to be insensitive to communications of uncertainty and that communicators may need to be highly explicit when attempting to warn of low precision or quality of evidence. The effect of the perceived hypotheticality of the scenario underscores the importance of realistic decision-making scenarios for studies and the role of familiarity with the decision dilemma generally.</p><p><strong>Highlights: </strong>In a world where information for medical decision making is increasingly going to be provided through digital, online tools, institutions providing such tools need guidance on how best to communicate about their trustworthiness and precision.We find that people are fairly insensitive to cues designed to communicate uncertainty around the outputs of such tools. Even putting "ATTENTION" in bold font or explicitly pointing out the weaknesses in the data did not appear to affect people's decision making using the tool's outputs. Institutions should take note, and further work is required to determine how best to communicate uncertainty in a way that elicits appropriate caution in lay users.People were much more sensitive to institutional logos associated with the outputs. Generalized institutional trust (rather than trust in the specific institution whose logo was shown) was associated with how trustw
背景。在线算法驱动的预后工具在医疗决策中越来越重要。开发此类工具的机构需要能够以值得信赖的方式传达信息的精确性和准确性,因此许多机构在尝试传达不确定性的同时,还使用机构标识来强调其可信度。我们以一种新颖的方式将有关信任、不确定性和心理距离的理论结合在一起,测试了不确定性的交流和机构标识的存在是否以及如何共同影响人们对医疗信息、预后工具本身以及治疗决策的信任。研究方法我们在英国(实验 1)和全球(实验 2)的参与者(总人数 = 4,724 人)中进行了一次试点实验和两次在线实验,在 3(不确定性提示)×4(机构提示)的主体间设计中,参与者被随机分配到 12 个臂中的一个臂中。刺激以现有的医疗预后工具为基础。结果显示机构信任与对预后工具本身的信任一致,而不确定性信息则没有一致的影响。机构信任能够预测参与者在决策过程中对机构认可的重视程度,以及在假设情景下从被动治疗转为主动治疗的可能性。与情景的心理距离(感知情景的假设性)也有明显的影响。结论/意义。这些结果强调了机构展示可信度并与用户建立信任的重要性。这些结果还表明,用户往往对不确定性的传播不敏感,传播者在试图警告低精确度或低质量的证据时可能需要非常明确。情景假设的影响强调了研究中现实决策情景的重要性,以及熟悉决策困境的一般作用:在医疗决策信息越来越多地通过数字化在线工具提供的世界里,提供此类工具的机构需要得到指导,了解如何以最佳方式宣传这些工具的可信度和精确度。我们发现,人们对旨在宣传此类工具输出结果不确定性的提示相当不敏感。即使用粗体字标注 "注意 "或明确指出数据的弱点,似乎也不会影响人们使用工具输出结果做出决策。机构应该注意到这一点,并且需要进一步开展工作,确定如何以最好的方式传达不确定性,以引起非专业用户的适当警惕。对机构的普遍信任(而不是对显示徽标的特定机构的信任)与人们认为该工具、其算法及其产生的数字的可信度、准确度和可靠性有关。最后,作为对研究人员的提示,我们发现参与者认为实验情景的假设性或可信度有显著影响。这是一个在研究中似乎很少被控制的变量,但却与我们感兴趣的一些变量一样发挥着重要作用,因此我们建议在未来的实验中对其进行测量。
{"title":"What Affects Perceived Trustworthiness of Online Medical Information and Subsequent Treatment Decision Making? Randomized Trials on the Role of Uncertainty and Institutional Cues.","authors":"Gabriel Recchia, Karin S Moser, Alexandra L J Freeman","doi":"10.1177/23814683241226660","DOIUrl":"10.1177/23814683241226660","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;Background.&lt;/b&gt; Online, algorithmically driven prognostic tools are increasingly important in medical decision making. Institutions developing such tools need to be able to communicate the precision and accuracy of the information in a trustworthy manner, and so many attempt to communicate uncertainties but also use institutional logos to underscore their trustworthiness. Bringing together theories on trust, uncertainty, and psychological distance in a novel way, we tested whether and how the communication of uncertainty and the presence of institutional logos together affected trust in medical information, the prognostic tool itself, and treatment decisions. &lt;b&gt;Methods.&lt;/b&gt; A pilot and 2 online experiments in which UK (experiment 1) and worldwide (experiment 2) participants (N&lt;sub&gt;total&lt;/sub&gt; = 4,724) were randomized to 1 of 12 arms in a 3 (uncertainty cue) × 4 (institutional cue) between-subjects design. The stimulus was based on an existing medical prognostic tool. &lt;b&gt;Results.&lt;/b&gt; Institutional trust was consistently associated with trust in the prognostic tool itself, while uncertainty information had no consistent effect. Institutional trust predicted the amount of weight participants reported placing on institutional endorsements in their decision making and the likelihood of switching from passive to active treatment in a hypothetical scenario. There was also a significant effect of psychological distance to (perceived hypotheticality of) the scenario. &lt;b&gt;Conclusions/Implications.&lt;/b&gt; These results underline the importance of institutions demonstrating trustworthiness and building trust with their users. They also suggest that users tend to be insensitive to communications of uncertainty and that communicators may need to be highly explicit when attempting to warn of low precision or quality of evidence. The effect of the perceived hypotheticality of the scenario underscores the importance of realistic decision-making scenarios for studies and the role of familiarity with the decision dilemma generally.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Highlights: &lt;/strong&gt;In a world where information for medical decision making is increasingly going to be provided through digital, online tools, institutions providing such tools need guidance on how best to communicate about their trustworthiness and precision.We find that people are fairly insensitive to cues designed to communicate uncertainty around the outputs of such tools. Even putting \"ATTENTION\" in bold font or explicitly pointing out the weaknesses in the data did not appear to affect people's decision making using the tool's outputs. Institutions should take note, and further work is required to determine how best to communicate uncertainty in a way that elicits appropriate caution in lay users.People were much more sensitive to institutional logos associated with the outputs. Generalized institutional trust (rather than trust in the specific institution whose logo was shown) was associated with how trustw","PeriodicalId":36567,"journal":{"name":"MDM Policy and Practice","volume":"9 1","pages":"23814683241226660"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10870812/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139900595","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Integrating Patient Involvement Interventions within Clinical Practice: A Mixed-Methods Study of Health Care Professional Reasoning. 在临床实践中整合患者参与干预措施:医疗保健专业人员推理的混合方法研究》。
Q3 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Pub Date : 2024-02-14 eCollection Date: 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1177/23814683241229987
Anna Holm, Lotte Ørneborg Rodkjær, Hilary Louise Bekker

Background. Patient involvement interventions are complex interventions that improve patient involvement in treatment and care in health care systems. Studies report several benefits of patient involvement interventions and that health care professionals are positive about using them. However, they have not been explored as a collected group of interventions throughout the continuum of care and treatment. In addition, the relationship between patient involvement interventions and the clinical reasoning process of health care professionals has not been thoroughly studied. Design. This mixed-methods study was conducted at Aarhus University Hospital in Denmark between April and November 2022 using interview data from 12 health care professionals and survey data from 420 health care professionals. Informants were medical doctors, nurses, midwives, dietitians, physiotherapists, and occupational therapists who had direct contact with patients during their daily care and treatment. Quantitative data were analyzed using descriptive statistics; qualitative data were analyzed via inductive and deductive content analysis. Results. Communication and interaction were seen as overarching aspects of patient involvement, with patient involvement interventions being defined as concrete tools and methods to enhance health care professionals' explicit clinical reasoning process. Limitations. It is unclear if results are representative of all health care professionals at the hospital or only those with a positive view of patient involvement interventions. Conclusions. Patient involvement interventions are viewed as beneficial for patients and fit with the clinical reasoning of health care professionals. Clinical reasoning may be an active ingredient in the development and implementation of patient involvement interventions. Implications. In practice, health care professionals need training in person-centered communication and the ability to articulate their clinical reasoning explicitly. In research, a more in-depth understanding of the interrelations between patient involvement interventions and clinical reasoning is needed.

Highlights: Communication and interaction are the fundamental goals of patient involvement in practice, regardless of which patient involvement intervention is being used.Clinical reasoning is often an unconscious process using tacit knowledge, but the use of patient involvement interventions may be a way for health care professionals (at both individual and group levels) to become more explicit about and aware of their reflections.Clinical reasoning can be viewed as a mechanism of change in the development and implementation of patient involvement interventions.

背景。患者参与干预是一种复杂的干预措施,可提高患者在医疗保健系统中参与治疗和护理的程度。研究报告显示,患者参与干预措施有多种益处,而且医护人员对使用这些措施持积极态度。然而,在整个护理和治疗过程中,这些干预措施还没有作为一组干预措施进行研究。此外,患者参与干预措施与医护人员临床推理过程之间的关系也未得到深入研究。设计。这项混合方法研究于 2022 年 4 月至 11 月在丹麦奥胡斯大学医院进行,使用了 12 名医护人员的访谈数据和 420 名医护人员的调查数据。受访者包括医生、护士、助产士、营养师、物理治疗师和职业治疗师,他们在日常护理和治疗过程中与患者有直接接触。定量数据采用描述性统计方法进行分析;定性数据则采用归纳和演绎内容分析方法进行分析。研究结果沟通和互动被视为患者参与的主要方面,而患者参与干预则被定义为加强医护人员明确临床推理过程的具体工具和方法。局限性。尚不清楚研究结果是否代表了医院的所有医护人员,还是仅代表了那些对患者参与干预持积极态度的医护人员。结论。患者参与干预被认为对患者有益,并符合医护人员的临床推理能力。临床推理可能是制定和实施患者参与干预措施的一个积极因素。影响。在实践中,医护人员需要接受以人为本的沟通培训,并具备明确阐述临床推理的能力。在研究方面,需要更深入地了解患者参与干预和临床推理之间的相互关系:无论使用哪种患者参与干预措施,沟通和互动都是患者参与实践的基本目标。临床推理通常是一个使用隐性知识的无意识过程,但使用患者参与干预措施可能是医护人员(在个人和团体层面)更加明确和意识到其反思的一种方式。临床推理可被视为制定和实施患者参与干预措施的一种变革机制。
{"title":"Integrating Patient Involvement Interventions within Clinical Practice: A Mixed-Methods Study of Health Care Professional Reasoning.","authors":"Anna Holm, Lotte Ørneborg Rodkjær, Hilary Louise Bekker","doi":"10.1177/23814683241229987","DOIUrl":"10.1177/23814683241229987","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p><b>Background.</b> Patient involvement interventions are complex interventions that improve patient involvement in treatment and care in health care systems. Studies report several benefits of patient involvement interventions and that health care professionals are positive about using them. However, they have not been explored as a collected group of interventions throughout the continuum of care and treatment. In addition, the relationship between patient involvement interventions and the clinical reasoning process of health care professionals has not been thoroughly studied. <b>Design.</b> This mixed-methods study was conducted at Aarhus University Hospital in Denmark between April and November 2022 using interview data from 12 health care professionals and survey data from 420 health care professionals. Informants were medical doctors, nurses, midwives, dietitians, physiotherapists, and occupational therapists who had direct contact with patients during their daily care and treatment. Quantitative data were analyzed using descriptive statistics; qualitative data were analyzed via inductive and deductive content analysis. <b>Results.</b> Communication and interaction were seen as overarching aspects of patient involvement, with patient involvement interventions being defined as concrete tools and methods to enhance health care professionals' explicit clinical reasoning process. <b>Limitations.</b> It is unclear if results are representative of all health care professionals at the hospital or only those with a positive view of patient involvement interventions. <b>Conclusions.</b> Patient involvement interventions are viewed as beneficial for patients and fit with the clinical reasoning of health care professionals. Clinical reasoning may be an active ingredient in the development and implementation of patient involvement interventions. <b>Implications.</b> In practice, health care professionals need training in person-centered communication and the ability to articulate their clinical reasoning explicitly. In research, a more in-depth understanding of the interrelations between patient involvement interventions and clinical reasoning is needed.</p><p><strong>Highlights: </strong>Communication and interaction are the fundamental goals of patient involvement in practice, regardless of which patient involvement intervention is being used.Clinical reasoning is often an unconscious process using tacit knowledge, but the use of patient involvement interventions may be a way for health care professionals (at both individual and group levels) to become more explicit about and aware of their reflections.Clinical reasoning can be viewed as a mechanism of change in the development and implementation of patient involvement interventions.</p>","PeriodicalId":36567,"journal":{"name":"MDM Policy and Practice","volume":"9 1","pages":"23814683241229987"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10868494/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139742203","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Predicting COVID-19 Outbreaks in Correctional Facilities Using Machine Learning. 利用机器学习预测惩教机构中 COVID-19 的爆发。
IF 1.9 Q3 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Pub Date : 2024-01-29 eCollection Date: 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1177/23814683231222469
Giovanni S P Malloy, Lisa B Puglisi, Kristofer B Bucklen, Tyler D Harvey, Emily A Wang, Margaret L Brandeau
<p><p><b>Introduction.</b> The risk of infectious disease transmission, including COVID-19, is disproportionately high in correctional facilities due to close living conditions, relatively low levels of vaccination, and reduced access to testing and treatment. While much progress has been made on describing and mitigating COVID-19 and other infectious disease risk in jails and prisons, there are open questions about which data can best predict future outbreaks. <b>Methods.</b> We used facility data and demographic and health data collected from 24 prison facilities in the Pennsylvania Department of Corrections from March 2020 to May 2021 to determine which sources of data best predict a coming COVID-19 outbreak in a prison facility. We used machine learning methods to cluster the prisons into groups based on similar facility-level characteristics, including size, rurality, and demographics of incarcerated people. We developed logistic regression classification models to predict for each cluster, before and after vaccine availability, whether there would be no cases, an outbreak defined as 2 or more cases, or a large outbreak, defined as 10 or more cases in the next 1, 2, and 3 d. We compared these predictions to data on outbreaks that occurred. <b>Results.</b> Facilities were divided into 8 clusters of sizes varying from 1 to 7 facilities per cluster. We trained 60 logistic regressions; 20 had test sets with between 35% and 65% of days with outbreaks detected. Of these, 8 logistic regressions correctly predicted the occurrence of an outbreak more than 55% of the time. The most common predictive feature was incident cases among the incarcerated population from 2 to 32 d prior. Other predictive features included the number of tests administered from 1 to 33 d prior, total population, test positivity rate, and county deaths, hospitalizations, and incident cases. Cumulative cases, vaccination rates, and race, ethnicity, or age statistics for incarcerated populations were generally not predictive. <b>Conclusions.</b> County-level measures of COVID-19, facility population, and test positivity rate appear as potential promising predictors of COVID-19 outbreaks in correctional facilities, suggesting that correctional facilities should monitor community transmission in addition to facility transmission to inform future outbreak response decisions. These efforts should not be limited to COVID-19 but should include any large-scale infectious disease outbreak that may involve institution-community transmission.</p><p><strong>Highlights: </strong>The risk of infectious disease transmission, including COVID-19, is disproportionately high in correctional facilities.We used machine learning methods with data collected from 24 prison facilities in the Pennsylvania Department of Corrections to determine which sources of data best predict a coming COVID-19 outbreak in a prison facility.Key predictors included county-level measures of COVID-19, facility population,
导言。由于生活条件恶劣、疫苗接种率相对较低以及检测和治疗机会减少,包括 COVID-19 在内的传染病传播风险在惩教机构中格外高。尽管在描述和降低 COVID-19 以及其他传染病在监狱和看守所的传播风险方面已经取得了很大进展,但关于哪些数据可以最好地预测未来的疫情爆发,仍有很多问题有待解决。方法。我们使用了从 2020 年 3 月到 2021 年 5 月从宾夕法尼亚州惩教署的 24 所监狱设施收集的设施数据、人口和健康数据,以确定哪些数据源最能预测监狱设施中即将爆发的 COVID-19 疫情。我们使用机器学习方法,根据类似的设施级特征(包括规模、乡村化程度和被监禁者的人口统计学特征)将监狱分组。我们建立了逻辑回归分类模型,以预测每个群组在疫苗供应前后是否会出现无病例、爆发(定义为 2 例或更多病例)或大规模爆发(定义为未来 1 天、2 天和 3 天内出现 10 例或更多病例)。我们将这些预测与已发生的疫情数据进行了比较。结果。医疗机构被分为 8 个群组,每个群组的规模从 1 到 7 个不等。我们对 60 个逻辑回归进行了训练;其中 20 个测试集检测到的疫情爆发天数在 35% 到 65% 之间。其中,8 个逻辑回归在 55% 以上的时间内正确预测了疫情的发生。最常见的预测特征是监禁人群在 2 到 32 天前出现的病例。其他预测特征包括 1 至 33 d 前的检测次数、总人口、检测阳性率以及县级死亡、住院和发病病例。累计病例、疫苗接种率以及被监禁人群的种族、民族或年龄统计数据一般不具有预测性。结论。县级 COVID-19、惩教机构人口和检测阳性率似乎是惩教机构中 COVID-19 爆发的潜在预测因素,这表明惩教机构除了监测惩教机构的传播情况外,还应监测社区的传播情况,以便为未来的疫情应对决策提供信息。这些工作不应仅限于 COVID-19,还应包括任何可能涉及机构-社区传播的大规模传染病疫情:我们使用机器学习方法,利用从宾夕法尼亚州惩教署 24 所监狱设施收集的数据,确定哪些数据源最能预测监狱设施中即将爆发的 COVID-19 疫情。主要预测因素包括 COVID-19 的县级衡量标准、设施人口以及设施中的检测阳性率、加强惩教机构监测当地社区感染率的能力(例如,通过改善机构间合作和数据共享),同时继续对在押人员和工作人员进行检测,可以帮助惩教机构更好地预测和应对未来的传染病爆发。
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引用次数: 0
Resource Utilization and Costs Associated with Approaches to Identify Infants with Early-Onset Sepsis. 与识别早发败血症婴儿的方法相关的资源利用率和成本。
IF 1.9 Q3 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Pub Date : 2024-01-29 eCollection Date: 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1177/23814683231226129
Grace Guan, Neha S Joshi, Adam Frymoyer, Grace D Achepohl, Rebecca Dang, N Kenji Taylor, Joshua A Salomon, Jeremy D Goldhaber-Fiebert, Douglas K Owens

Objective. To compare resource utilization and costs associated with 3 alternative screening approaches to identify early-onset sepsis (EOS) in infants born at ≥35 wk of gestational age, as recommended by the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) in 2018. Study Design. Decision tree-based cost analysis of the 3 AAP-recommended approaches: 1) categorical risk assessment (categorization by chorioamnionitis exposure status), 2) neonatal sepsis calculator (a multivariate prediction model based on perinatal risk factors), and 3) enhanced clinical observation (assessment based on serial clinical examinations). We evaluated resource utilization and direct costs (2022 US dollars) to the health system. Results. Categorical risk assessment led to the greatest neonatal intensive care unit usage (210 d per 1,000 live births) and antibiotic exposure (6.8%) compared with the neonatal sepsis calculator (112 d per 1,000 live births and 3.6%) and enhanced clinical observation (99 d per 1,000 live births and 3.1%). While the per-live birth hospital costs of the 3 approaches were similar-categorical risk assessment cost $1,360, the neonatal sepsis calculator cost $1,317, and enhanced clinical observation cost $1,310-the cost of infants receiving intervention under categorical risk assessment was approximately twice that of the other 2 strategies. Results were robust to variations in data parameters. Conclusion. The neonatal sepsis calculator and enhanced clinical observation approaches may be preferred to categorical risk assessment as they reduce the number of infants receiving intervention and thus antibiotic exposure and associated costs. All 3 approaches have similar costs over all live births, and prior literature has indicated similar health outcomes. Inclusion of downstream effects of antibiotic exposure in the neonatal period should be evaluated within a cost-effectiveness analysis.

Highlights: Of the 3 approaches recommended by the American Academy of Pediatrics in 2018 to identify early-onset sepsis in infants born at ≥35 weeks, the categorical risk assessment approach leads to about twice as many infants receiving evaluation to rule out early-onset sepsis compared with the neonatal sepsis calculator and enhanced clinical observation approaches.While the hospital costs of the 3 approaches were similar over the entire population of live births, the neonatal sepsis calculator and enhanced clinical observation approaches reduce antibiotic exposure, neonatal intensive care unit admission, and hospital costs associated with interventions as part of the screening approach compared with the categorical risk assessment approach.

目的根据美国儿科学会(AAP)2018 年的建议,比较 3 种替代筛查方法的资源利用率和相关成本,以识别胎龄≥35 周出生婴儿的早发性败血症(EOS)。研究设计。对 AAP 推荐的 3 种方法进行基于决策树的成本分析:1)分类风险评估(根据绒毛膜羊膜炎暴露状态进行分类);2)新生儿败血症计算器(基于围产期风险因素的多变量预测模型);3)强化临床观察(基于连续临床检查进行评估)。我们评估了资源利用率和卫生系统的直接成本(2022 美元)。结果如下与新生儿败血症计算器(每千名活产儿 112 天,3.6%)和强化临床观察(每千名活产儿 99 天,3.1%)相比,分类风险评估导致的新生儿重症监护室使用率(每千名活产儿 210 天)和抗生素使用率(6.8%)最高。虽然这三种方法的每活产儿医院成本相似--分类风险评估成本为 1360 美元,新生儿败血症计算器成本为 1317 美元,强化临床观察成本为 1310 美元,但接受分类风险评估干预的婴儿成本约为其他两种方法的两倍。结果对数据参数的变化很稳定。结论。与分类风险评估相比,新生儿败血症计算器和强化临床观察法可能更可取,因为它们能减少接受干预的婴儿数量,从而减少抗生素暴露和相关成本。对所有活产婴儿而言,这三种方法的成本相近,先前的文献也显示了相似的健康结果。应在成本效益分析中评估新生儿期抗生素暴露的下游影响:在美国儿科学会2018年推荐的3种识别出生≥35周婴儿早发败血症的方法中,与新生儿败血症计算器和强化临床观察方法相比,分类风险评估方法导致接受评估以排除早发败血症的婴儿人数约为前者的两倍。虽然在所有活产婴儿中,这三种方法的住院费用相似,但与分类风险评估方法相比,新生儿败血症计算器和强化临床观察方法减少了抗生素暴露、新生儿重症监护室入院率以及筛查方法中与干预相关的住院费用。
{"title":"Resource Utilization and Costs Associated with Approaches to Identify Infants with Early-Onset Sepsis.","authors":"Grace Guan, Neha S Joshi, Adam Frymoyer, Grace D Achepohl, Rebecca Dang, N Kenji Taylor, Joshua A Salomon, Jeremy D Goldhaber-Fiebert, Douglas K Owens","doi":"10.1177/23814683231226129","DOIUrl":"10.1177/23814683231226129","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p><b>Objective.</b> To compare resource utilization and costs associated with 3 alternative screening approaches to identify early-onset sepsis (EOS) in infants born at ≥35 wk of gestational age, as recommended by the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) in 2018. <b>Study Design.</b> Decision tree-based cost analysis of the 3 AAP-recommended approaches: 1) categorical risk assessment (categorization by chorioamnionitis exposure status), 2) neonatal sepsis calculator (a multivariate prediction model based on perinatal risk factors), and 3) enhanced clinical observation (assessment based on serial clinical examinations). We evaluated resource utilization and direct costs (2022 US dollars) to the health system. <b>Results.</b> Categorical risk assessment led to the greatest neonatal intensive care unit usage (210 d per 1,000 live births) and antibiotic exposure (6.8%) compared with the neonatal sepsis calculator (112 d per 1,000 live births and 3.6%) and enhanced clinical observation (99 d per 1,000 live births and 3.1%). While the per-live birth hospital costs of the 3 approaches were similar-categorical risk assessment cost $1,360, the neonatal sepsis calculator cost $1,317, and enhanced clinical observation cost $1,310-the cost of infants receiving intervention under categorical risk assessment was approximately twice that of the other 2 strategies. Results were robust to variations in data parameters. <b>Conclusion.</b> The neonatal sepsis calculator and enhanced clinical observation approaches may be preferred to categorical risk assessment as they reduce the number of infants receiving intervention and thus antibiotic exposure and associated costs. All 3 approaches have similar costs over all live births, and prior literature has indicated similar health outcomes. Inclusion of downstream effects of antibiotic exposure in the neonatal period should be evaluated within a cost-effectiveness analysis.</p><p><strong>Highlights: </strong>Of the 3 approaches recommended by the American Academy of Pediatrics in 2018 to identify early-onset sepsis in infants born at ≥35 weeks, the categorical risk assessment approach leads to about twice as many infants receiving evaluation to rule out early-onset sepsis compared with the neonatal sepsis calculator and enhanced clinical observation approaches.While the hospital costs of the 3 approaches were similar over the entire population of live births, the neonatal sepsis calculator and enhanced clinical observation approaches reduce antibiotic exposure, neonatal intensive care unit admission, and hospital costs associated with interventions as part of the screening approach compared with the categorical risk assessment approach.</p>","PeriodicalId":36567,"journal":{"name":"MDM Policy and Practice","volume":"9 1","pages":"23814683231226129"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-01-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10826394/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139643083","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Using Expert Elicitation to Adjust Published Intervention Effects to Reflect the Local Context. 利用专家征询调整已公布的干预效果,以反映当地情况。
IF 1.9 Q3 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Pub Date : 2024-01-25 eCollection Date: 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1177/23814683231226335
Jodi Gray, Tilenka R Thynne, Vaughn Eaton, Rebecca Larcombe, Mahsa Tantiongco, Jonathan Karnon

Background. Local health services make limited use of economic evaluation to inform decisions to fund new health service interventions. One barrier is the relevance of published intervention effects to the local setting, given these effects can strongly reflect the original evaluation context. Expert elicitation methods provide a structured approach to explicitly and transparently adjust published effect estimates, which can then be used in local-level economic evaluations to increase their local relevance. Expert elicitation was used to adjust published effect estimates for 2 interventions targeting the prevention of inpatient hypoglycemia. Methods. Elicitation was undertaken with 6 clinical experts. They were systematically presented with information regarding potential differences in patient characteristics and quality of care between the published study and local contexts, and regarding the design and application of the published study. The experts then assessed the intervention effects and provided estimates of the most realistic, most pessimistic, and most optimistic intervention effect sizes in the local context. Results. The experts estimated both interventions would be less effective in the local setting compared with the published effect estimates. For one intervention, the experts expected the lower complexity of admitted patients in the local setting would reduce the intervention's effectiveness. For the other intervention, the reduced effect was largely driven by differences in the scope of implementation (hospital-wide in the local setting compared with targeted implementation in the evaluation). Conclusions. The pragmatic elicitation methods reported in this article provide a feasible and acceptable approach to assess and adjust published intervention effects to better reflect expected effects in the local context. Further development and application of these methods is proposed to facilitate the use of local-level economic evaluation.

Highlights: Local health services make limited use of economic evaluation to inform their decisions on the funding of new health service interventions. One barrier to use is the relevance of published intervention evaluations to the local setting.Expert elicitation methods provide a structured way to consider differences between the evaluation and local settings and to explicitly and transparently adjust published effect estimates for use in local economic evaluations.The pragmatic elicitation methods reported in this article offer a feasible and acceptable approach to adjusting published intervention effects to better reflect the effects expected in the local context. This increases the relevance of economic evaluations for local decision makers.

背景。地方医疗服务机构在决定是否资助新的医疗服务干预措施时,对经济评估的利用十分有限。其中一个障碍是已公布的干预效果与当地环境的相关性,因为这些效果可能会强烈反映最初的评估背景。专家征询法提供了一种结构化的方法,可以明确、透明地调整已公布的效果估计值,然后将其用于地方一级的经济评估,以提高其地方相关性。专家征询法被用于调整针对预防住院病人低血糖症的两种干预措施的已发表效果估计值。方法。对 6 位临床专家进行了征询。他们系统地了解了已发表研究与当地情况之间在患者特征和护理质量方面的潜在差异,以及已发表研究的设计和应用情况。然后,专家们对干预效果进行了评估,并对当地情况下最现实、最悲观和最乐观的干预效果大小进行了估计。结果。专家们估计,与公布的效果估计值相比,两种干预措施在当地环境中的效果都会较差。对于其中一项干预措施,专家们预计在当地环境下,入院病人的复杂程度较低,这将降低干预措施的效果。对于另一项干预措施,效果降低的主要原因是实施范围的不同(在当地环境下是在全院范围内实施,而在评估中则是有针对性地实施)。结论。本文报告的实用诱导方法为评估和调整已公布的干预效果提供了一种可行且可接受的方法,以更好地反映当地的预期效果。建议进一步开发和应用这些方法,以促进地方一级经济评估的使用:重点:地方医疗服务机构在决定是否资助新的医疗服务干预措施时,对经济评估的使用非常有限。专家征询法提供了一种结构化的方法来考虑评价与当地环境之间的差异,并明确、透明地调整已公布的效果估计值,以便用于当地经济评价。这提高了经济评估与地方决策者的相关性。
{"title":"Using Expert Elicitation to Adjust Published Intervention Effects to Reflect the Local Context.","authors":"Jodi Gray, Tilenka R Thynne, Vaughn Eaton, Rebecca Larcombe, Mahsa Tantiongco, Jonathan Karnon","doi":"10.1177/23814683231226335","DOIUrl":"10.1177/23814683231226335","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p><b>Background.</b> Local health services make limited use of economic evaluation to inform decisions to fund new health service interventions. One barrier is the relevance of published intervention effects to the local setting, given these effects can strongly reflect the original evaluation context. Expert elicitation methods provide a structured approach to explicitly and transparently adjust published effect estimates, which can then be used in local-level economic evaluations to increase their local relevance. Expert elicitation was used to adjust published effect estimates for 2 interventions targeting the prevention of inpatient hypoglycemia. <b>Methods.</b> Elicitation was undertaken with 6 clinical experts. They were systematically presented with information regarding potential differences in patient characteristics and quality of care between the published study and local contexts, and regarding the design and application of the published study. The experts then assessed the intervention effects and provided estimates of the most realistic, most pessimistic, and most optimistic intervention effect sizes in the local context. <b>Results.</b> The experts estimated both interventions would be less effective in the local setting compared with the published effect estimates. For one intervention, the experts expected the lower complexity of admitted patients in the local setting would reduce the intervention's effectiveness. For the other intervention, the reduced effect was largely driven by differences in the scope of implementation (hospital-wide in the local setting compared with targeted implementation in the evaluation). <b>Conclusions.</b> The pragmatic elicitation methods reported in this article provide a feasible and acceptable approach to assess and adjust published intervention effects to better reflect expected effects in the local context. Further development and application of these methods is proposed to facilitate the use of local-level economic evaluation.</p><p><strong>Highlights: </strong>Local health services make limited use of economic evaluation to inform their decisions on the funding of new health service interventions. One barrier to use is the relevance of published intervention evaluations to the local setting.Expert elicitation methods provide a structured way to consider differences between the evaluation and local settings and to explicitly and transparently adjust published effect estimates for use in local economic evaluations.The pragmatic elicitation methods reported in this article offer a feasible and acceptable approach to adjusting published intervention effects to better reflect the effects expected in the local context. This increases the relevance of economic evaluations for local decision makers.</p>","PeriodicalId":36567,"journal":{"name":"MDM Policy and Practice","volume":"9 1","pages":"23814683231226335"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-01-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10812103/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139571880","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Application of Time-Series Analysis and Expert Judgment in Modeling and Forecasting Blood Donation Trends in Zimbabwe. 时间序列分析和专家判断在津巴布韦献血趋势建模和预测中的应用。
Q3 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Pub Date : 2024-01-18 eCollection Date: 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1177/23814683231222483
Coster Chideme, Delson Chikobvu
<p><p><b>Background.</b> Blood cannot be artificially manufactured, and there is currently no substitute for human blood. The supply of blood in transfusion facilities requires constant and timely collection of blood from donors. Modeling and forecasting trends in blood collections are critical for determining both the current and future capacity requirements and appropriate models of adequate blood provision. <b>Objectives.</b> The objective of this study is to determine blood collection or donation patterns and develop time-series models that can be updated and refined in predicting future blood donations in Zimbabwe when given the historical data. <b>Materials and Methods.</b> Monthly blood donation data for the period 2009 to 2019 were collected retrospectively from the National Blood Service Zimbabwe database. Time-series models (i.e., the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average [SARIMA] and Error, Trend and Seasonal [ETS]) models were applied and compared. The models were chosen because of their ability to handle the seasonality and other time-series components evident in the blood donation data. Expert opinions and experience were used in selecting the models and in making inferences in the analysis. <b>Results.</b> Time-series plots of blood donations showed seasonal patterns, with significant drops in blood donations in months associated with Zimbabwe's school holidays (April, August, and December) and public holidays. During these holidays, there is a reduced number of school donors, while at about the same time, there is increasing blood demand as a result of road accidents. Model identification procedures established the <math><mrow><mi>SARIMA</mi><mspace></mspace><mrow><mo>(</mo><mn>1</mn><mo>,</mo><mn>1</mn><mo>,</mo><mn>2</mn><mo>)</mo></mrow><msub><mrow><mo>(</mo><mn>0</mn><mo>,</mo><mn>1</mn><mo>,</mo><mn>1</mn><mo>)</mo></mrow><mrow><mn>12</mn></mrow></msub></mrow></math> model as the appropriate model for forecasting total blood donation in Zimbabwe. The results and forecasts show an upward trend in blood donations. According to the accuracy measures used, the SARIMA model outperforms the ETS model. <b>Conclusions.</b> Expert knowledge in the blood donation process, coupled with statistical models, can help explain trends exhibited in blood donation data in Zimbabwe. These findings help the blood authorities plan for blood donor campaign drives. The findings are key indicators of where to allocate more resources toward blood donation and when to collect more blood units. The increasing blood donation projections ensure a stable blood bank inventory in the near future.</p><p><strong>Highlights: </strong>A SARIMA model can be used to predict the flow of blood donations in Zimbabwe.The seasonal blood donation pattern peaks in the months of March, June/July, and September.The donations troughs are in the months of April, August, December, and January. These are the months coinciding with school holidays in Zimbabwe.Both t
背景。血液无法人工制造,目前也没有人类血液的替代品。输血设施的血液供应需要持续、及时地从献血者那里采集血液。对采血趋势进行建模和预测,对于确定当前和未来的能力需求以及适当的血液供应模式至关重要。目标。本研究的目的是确定采血或献血模式,并建立时间序列模型,以便在获得历史数据的情况下更新和完善模型,预测津巴布韦未来的献血情况。材料和方法。从津巴布韦国家血液服务数据库中回顾性收集了 2009 年至 2019 年期间的每月献血数据。应用并比较了时间序列模型(即季节自回归综合移动平均模型 [SARIMA] 和误差、趋势和季节模型 [ETS])。之所以选择这些模型,是因为它们能够处理献血数据中明显的季节性和其他时间序列成分。在选择模型和进行分析推断时参考了专家的意见和经验。分析结果献血量的时间序列图显示出季节性规律,在与津巴布韦学校假期(4 月、8 月和 12 月)和公共假期相关的月份,献血量明显下降。在这些节假日期间,学校献血者人数减少,而与此同时,由于道路交通事故,血液需求增加。模型识别程序确定 SARIMA(1,1,2)(0,1,1)12 模型是预测津巴布韦献血总量的合适模型。结果和预测显示献血量呈上升趋势。根据所使用的准确度衡量标准,SARIMA 模型优于 ETS 模型。结论献血过程中的专家知识与统计模型相结合,有助于解释津巴布韦献血数据的发展趋势。这些发现有助于血液管理机构规划献血活动。这些发现是重要的指标,表明应在哪些方面为献血分配更多的资源,以及何时采集更多的血液单位。不断增加的献血预测确保了血库库存在不久的将来保持稳定:SARIMA模型可用于预测津巴布韦的献血流量。季节性献血模式的高峰期在3月、6月/7月和9月,低谷期在4月、8月、12月和1月。SARIMA模型和ETS模型提供了相似的预测结果,但在预测津巴布韦的献血流量时,SARIMA(1,1,2)(0,1,1)12模型的拟合度和专家知识略胜一筹。
{"title":"Application of Time-Series Analysis and Expert Judgment in Modeling and Forecasting Blood Donation Trends in Zimbabwe.","authors":"Coster Chideme, Delson Chikobvu","doi":"10.1177/23814683231222483","DOIUrl":"10.1177/23814683231222483","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;Background.&lt;/b&gt; Blood cannot be artificially manufactured, and there is currently no substitute for human blood. The supply of blood in transfusion facilities requires constant and timely collection of blood from donors. Modeling and forecasting trends in blood collections are critical for determining both the current and future capacity requirements and appropriate models of adequate blood provision. &lt;b&gt;Objectives.&lt;/b&gt; The objective of this study is to determine blood collection or donation patterns and develop time-series models that can be updated and refined in predicting future blood donations in Zimbabwe when given the historical data. &lt;b&gt;Materials and Methods.&lt;/b&gt; Monthly blood donation data for the period 2009 to 2019 were collected retrospectively from the National Blood Service Zimbabwe database. Time-series models (i.e., the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average [SARIMA] and Error, Trend and Seasonal [ETS]) models were applied and compared. The models were chosen because of their ability to handle the seasonality and other time-series components evident in the blood donation data. Expert opinions and experience were used in selecting the models and in making inferences in the analysis. &lt;b&gt;Results.&lt;/b&gt; Time-series plots of blood donations showed seasonal patterns, with significant drops in blood donations in months associated with Zimbabwe's school holidays (April, August, and December) and public holidays. During these holidays, there is a reduced number of school donors, while at about the same time, there is increasing blood demand as a result of road accidents. Model identification procedures established the &lt;math&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mi&gt;SARIMA&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;mspace&gt;&lt;/mspace&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mo&gt;(&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;mn&gt;1&lt;/mn&gt;&lt;mo&gt;,&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;mn&gt;1&lt;/mn&gt;&lt;mo&gt;,&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;mn&gt;2&lt;/mn&gt;&lt;mo&gt;)&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;msub&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mo&gt;(&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;mn&gt;0&lt;/mn&gt;&lt;mo&gt;,&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;mn&gt;1&lt;/mn&gt;&lt;mo&gt;,&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;mn&gt;1&lt;/mn&gt;&lt;mo&gt;)&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mn&gt;12&lt;/mn&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;/msub&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;/math&gt; model as the appropriate model for forecasting total blood donation in Zimbabwe. The results and forecasts show an upward trend in blood donations. According to the accuracy measures used, the SARIMA model outperforms the ETS model. &lt;b&gt;Conclusions.&lt;/b&gt; Expert knowledge in the blood donation process, coupled with statistical models, can help explain trends exhibited in blood donation data in Zimbabwe. These findings help the blood authorities plan for blood donor campaign drives. The findings are key indicators of where to allocate more resources toward blood donation and when to collect more blood units. The increasing blood donation projections ensure a stable blood bank inventory in the near future.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Highlights: &lt;/strong&gt;A SARIMA model can be used to predict the flow of blood donations in Zimbabwe.The seasonal blood donation pattern peaks in the months of March, June/July, and September.The donations troughs are in the months of April, August, December, and January. These are the months coinciding with school holidays in Zimbabwe.Both t","PeriodicalId":36567,"journal":{"name":"MDM Policy and Practice","volume":"9 1","pages":"23814683231222483"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10798106/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139514116","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Understanding Treatment Preferences for Patients with Tricuspid Regurgitation. 了解三尖瓣反流患者的治疗偏好。
Q3 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Pub Date : 2024-01-17 eCollection Date: 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1177/23814683231225667
Vijay Iyer, Nadeen N Faza, Michael Pfeiffer, Mark Kozak, Brandon Peterson, Mortiz Wyler von Ballmoos, Sarah Mollenkopf, Melissa Mancilla, Diandra Latibeaudiere-Gardner, Michael J Reardon

Background. Tricuspid regurgitation (TR) is a high-prevalence disease associated with poor quality of life and mortality. This quantitative patient preference study aims to identify TR patients' perspectives on risk-benefit tradeoffs. Methods. A discrete-choice experiment was developed to explore TR treatment risk-benefit tradeoffs. Attributes (levels) tested were treatment (procedure, medical management), reintervention risk (0%, 1%, 5%, 10%), medications over 2 y (none, reduce, same, increase), shortness of breath (none/mild, moderate, severe), and swelling (never, 3× per week, daily). A mixed logit regression model estimated preferences and calculated predicted probabilities. Relative attribute importance was calculated. Subgroup analyses were performed. Results. An online survey was completed by 150 TR patients. Shortness of breath was the most important attribute and accounted for 65.8% of treatment decision making. The average patients' predicted probability of preferring a "procedure-like" profile over a "medical management-like" profile was 99.7%. This decreased to 78.9% for a level change from severe to moderate in shortness of breath in the "medical management-like" profile. Subgroup analysis confirmed that patients older than 64 y had a stronger preference to avoid severe shortness of breath compared with younger patients (P < 0.02), as did severe or worse TR patients relative to moderate. New York Heart Association class I/II patients more strongly preferred to avoid procedural reintervention risk relative to class III/IV patients (P < 0.03). Conclusion. TR patients are willing to accept higher procedural reintervention risk if shortness of breath is alleviated. This risk tolerance is higher for older and more symptomatic patients. These results emphasize the appropriateness of developing TR therapies and the importance of addressing symptom burden.

Highlights: This study provides quantitative patient preference data from clinically confirmed tricuspid regurgitation (TR) patients to understand their treatment preferences.Using a targeted literature search and patient, physician, and Food and Drug Administration feedback, a cross-sectional survey with a discrete-choice experiment that focused on 5 of the most important attributes to TR patients was developed and administered online.TR patients are willing to accept higher procedural reintervention risk if shortness of breath is alleviated, and this risk tolerance is higher for older and more symptomatic patients.

背景。三尖瓣反流(TR)是一种与生活质量差和死亡率相关的高发疾病。这项患者偏好定量研究旨在确定三尖瓣反流患者对风险-收益权衡的看法。研究方法。开发了一个离散选择实验来探索 TR 治疗的风险-收益权衡。测试的属性(水平)包括治疗(手术、医疗管理)、再干预风险(0%、1%、5%、10%)、2 年内用药(无、减少、相同、增加)、呼吸急促(无/轻度、中度、重度)和浮肿(从不、每周 3 次、每天)。混合对数回归模型估计了偏好并计算了预测概率。计算了属性的相对重要性。进行了分组分析。结果150 名 TR 患者完成了在线调查。呼吸急促是最重要的属性,占治疗决策的 65.8%。与 "类似医疗管理 "的治疗方案相比,患者倾向于 "类似手术 "的治疗方案的预测概率平均为 99.7%。当 "类似医疗管理 "配置文件中的呼吸急促程度从重度变为中度时,这一概率降至 78.9%。亚组分析证实,与年轻患者相比,64 岁以上的患者更倾向于避免严重呼吸急促(P P 结论。如果呼吸急促得到缓解,TR 患者愿意接受较高的手术再介入风险。年龄较大和症状较重的患者的风险承受能力更高。这些结果强调了开发 TR 疗法的适当性以及解决症状负担的重要性:这项研究提供了临床确诊的三尖瓣反流(TR)患者的定量患者偏好数据,以了解他们对治疗的偏好。通过有针对性的文献检索以及患者、医生和食品药品管理局的反馈,我们开发了一项带有离散选择实验的横断面调查,重点关注对TR患者最重要的5个属性,并进行了在线管理。
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