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India's Agricultural Exports to China: Some Constraints 印度对中国的农产品出口:一些制约因素
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2705289
A. Tandon
Over the years, the composition of Indian merchandise exports to China has transformed further in favour of manufactured goods. The combined share of agricultural exports declined from 34.5 per cent during triennium ending 1999 to only 5.2 per cent during triennium ending 2005. This revelation comes as a surprise despite the global competitiveness of India in most of its agricultural exports. This paper attempts to identify the future potential for India’s agricultural exports to China. The paper identifies agricultural exports of Indian origin that have revealed comparative advantage in the international market but reveal a comparative disadvantage vis-a-vis China. This points to the presence of any prohibitive or restrictive policies against such agricultural products of Indian origin. Such exports have been identified to include mostly Animal or vegetable fats, oils & their wastes products and exports of Tobacco & manufactures. Removal of constraints in these categories would unleash the potential of exports under these categories and lead to diversification of Indian agricultural exports to China. Diversification in the agricultural exports would help in balancing the structure of India’s overall exports to China.
多年来,印度对华商品出口的构成进一步转变,有利于制成品。农业出口的总份额从1999年底三年期的34.5%下降到2005年底三年期的5.2%。尽管印度在大多数农产品出口方面具有全球竞争力,但这一发现还是令人惊讶。本文试图确定印度对中国农产品出口的未来潜力。本文确定了印度原产农业出口在国际市场上显示出比较优势,但与中国相比却显示出比较劣势。这表明存在针对印度原产农产品的任何禁止或限制性政策。这类出口已确定主要包括动植物脂肪、油及其废物产品以及烟草和制成品的出口。消除这些类别的限制将释放这些类别下的出口潜力,并导致印度对中国的农产品出口多样化。农业出口的多样化将有助于平衡印度对中国的整体出口结构。
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引用次数: 0
Poverty Effects of Expansion and Policies in Cotton Economies in Rural Mozambique: An Economy-wide Approach 莫桑比克农村棉花经济扩张和政策对贫困的影响:一种全经济的方法
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3305085
Rui Benfica, C. Arndt, D. Tschirley, D. Boughton
This paper uses a Regional Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model calibrated with a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for the Mozambique Zambezi Valley cotton concession sub-region to examine the economy-wide impacts and relative changes in the levels of income poverty of grower and non-grower household groups, following exogenous shocks, such as contract faming specific capital expansion, technology improvements, changes in world prices, and Government policies. Simulation results indicate that productivity gains have a broad-based income growth and poverty reduction potential, even greater than increased cotton world prices; because sustained increases in world prices are unlikely, this result is encouraging. While employment linkages are relatively weak in these economies when compared to tobacco growing areas, income diversification strategies by non-grower households, particularly through non-farm selfemployment and food crop marketing, ensure that they are not left behind when interventions are focused on cotton growers. Even when impacts are limited among growers, any expansion in cotton production results in some positive effects to nongrowers. The implied potential of interventions focused on increasing cotton productivity present a great opportunity for concession firms and policy makers to design strategies that are beneficial to both grower farmers, firms and the population at large. This will require public-private coordination efforts stressing better research and extension, the use of high yielding seed varieties, and emphasis on quality. Although results indicate limited negative effects of high import prices for inputs, measures aimed at reducing the costs of importation and transportation are highly encouraged as they can help minimize or counterbalance any negative effects from factors outside the control of domestic agents. While current poverty impacts of cotton cropping are relatively small, there is high potential for significant broad based gains under a more productive system.
本文以莫桑比克赞比西河流域棉花特许分区域为研究对象,采用社会会计矩阵(SAM)校准的区域可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型,考察了承包制农业特定资本扩张、技术改进、世界价格变化和政府政策等外生冲击对种植户和非种植户家庭群体收入贫困水平的影响和相对变化。模拟结果表明,生产率的提高具有广泛的收入增长和减贫潜力,甚至大于棉花世界价格的上涨;由于全球价格不太可能持续上涨,这一结果令人鼓舞。虽然与烟草种植区相比,这些经济体的就业联系相对较弱,但非种植户家庭的收入多样化战略,特别是通过非农业自营职业和粮食作物销售,确保在干预措施侧重于棉花种植者时,他们不会被落在后面。即使对棉花种植者的影响有限,棉花产量的任何扩大也会对非棉花种植者产生一些积极影响。以提高棉花生产力为重点的干预措施的潜在潜力为特许经营公司和决策者提供了一个很好的机会,可以设计对种植农民、公司和广大人口都有利的战略。这将需要公私协调努力,强调更好的研究和推广,使用高产种子品种,并强调质量。虽然研究结果表明投入的高进口价格的负面影响有限,但大力鼓励采取旨在降低进口和运输成本的措施,因为它们可以帮助尽量减少或抵消国内代理人无法控制的因素的任何负面影响。虽然目前棉花种植对贫困的影响相对较小,但在生产力更高的制度下,有很大的潜力取得广泛的重大收益。
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引用次数: 0
Identifying Priority Value-chains in Ethiopia 确定埃塞俄比亚的优先价值链
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3305040
Rui Benfica, J. Thurlow
This paper uses an economy-wide model to identify agricultural activities and value-chains in Ethiopia whose expansion would be most effective at generating economic growth, reducing national and rural poverty, creating jobs, and diversifying diets. Results indicate that expanding cereals production would continue to contribute positively to national pro-poor growth. However, the analysis suggests that there is no single value-chain that can achieve all policy objectives. Instead, a more balanced portfolio of valuechains would not only enhance agriculture’s future contribution to poverty reduction and economic growth, but also promote faster rural transformation and dietary diversification, both of which are needed to create job opportunities and improve nutrition outcomes over the longer-term. After considering alternative weighting schemes for competing policy goals, the final analysis suggests that vegetables and fruits/tree crops should be considered “priority” value-chains, because these are among the most effective at achieving multiple policy objectives. Other highly-ranked value-chains include oilseeds, tobacco/cotton/tea, and milk/dairy.
本文使用一个全经济模型来确定埃塞俄比亚的农业活动和价值链,这些活动和价值链的扩张将最有效地促进经济增长,减少国家和农村贫困,创造就业机会,并使饮食多样化。结果表明,扩大谷物生产将继续对国家扶贫增长作出积极贡献。然而,分析表明,不存在能够实现所有政策目标的单一价值链。相反,更均衡的价值链组合不仅可以增强农业未来对减贫和经济增长的贡献,还可以促进农村转型和饮食多样化,而这两者都是创造就业机会和改善长期营养结果所必需的。在考虑了相互竞争的政策目标的替代加权方案之后,最后的分析表明,蔬菜和水果/树木作物应该被视为“优先”价值链,因为它们是实现多个政策目标最有效的。其他排名靠前的价值链包括油籽、烟草/棉花/茶叶和牛奶/乳制品。
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引用次数: 10
The Significance of Social Innovation for Blue Growth in the North Sea 社会创新对北海蓝色增长的意义
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.22004/AG.ECON.291833
S. V. D. van den Burg, K. Soma, T. Selnes
The usage of the North Sea is in transition, influenced by the European blue growth strategy and the national follow-ups. Based on the principles of smart, sustainable and inclusive growth at sea, policies are formulated to stimulate growth in the existing and new maritime sectors. Creating blue growth will not be confined to technological change, but it will also cover changes in the human system, including ways of interacting and exchanging ideas, roles of responsibilities, as well as institutional settings of formal and informal rules. This also affects the rural hinterlands. Social innovation is needed to secure sustainable growth. Understanding the significance of social innovation is a first step to formulate governance efforts to stimulate social innovation. This chapter assesses the significance of social innovation with regards to blue growth in the North Sea. Social innovation can be explained both as process and outcome and these are strongly interwoven. The significance of social innovation – is here assessed by means of three core characteristics: scale, scope and resonance. The results show that the significance of social innovation varies considerable across the sectors; offshore wind energy, offshore mussel cultivation and offshore seaweed farming. Social innovation promises the benefit to further development of maritime sectors – just like it can benefit rural areas.
受欧洲蓝色增长战略和各国后续行动的影响,北海的使用正在转变。根据海上智能、可持续和包容性增长的原则,制定政策以刺激现有和新兴海事部门的增长。创造蓝色增长将不局限于技术变革,它还将涵盖人类系统的变革,包括互动和交流思想的方式、责任的角色,以及正式和非正式规则的制度设置。这也影响到农村腹地。确保可持续增长需要社会创新。了解社会创新的重要性是制定治理措施以刺激社会创新的第一步。本章评估了社会创新对北海蓝色增长的意义。社会创新既可以被解释为过程,也可以被解释为结果,两者是紧密交织在一起的。社会创新的重要性在这里是通过三个核心特征来评估的:规模、范围和共鸣。结果表明,社会创新的重要性在不同行业之间存在较大差异;海上风能、海上贻贝养殖、海上海藻养殖。社会创新有望为海洋部门的进一步发展带来好处——就像它可以为农村地区带来好处一样。
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引用次数: 0
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