Pub Date : 2016-12-11DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2016.7822171
Xin Liu, Dong Jin, Cheol Won Lee, Jong Cheol Moon
We present ConVenus, a system that performs rapid congestion verification of network updates in software-defined networks. ConVenus is a lightweight middleware between the SDN controller and network devices, and is capable to intercept flow updates from the controller and verify whether the amount of traffic in any links and switches exceeds the desired capacity. To enable online verification, ConVenus dynamically identifies the minimum set of flows and switches that are affected by each flow update, and creates a compact network model. ConVenus uses a four-phase simulation algorithm to quickly compute the throughput of every flow in the network model and report network congestion. The experimental results demonstrate that ConVenus manages to verify 90% of the updates in a network consisting of over 500 hosts and 80 switches within 5 milliseconds.
{"title":"Convenus: Congestion verification of network updates in software-defined networks","authors":"Xin Liu, Dong Jin, Cheol Won Lee, Jong Cheol Moon","doi":"10.1109/WSC.2016.7822171","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2016.7822171","url":null,"abstract":"We present ConVenus, a system that performs rapid congestion verification of network updates in software-defined networks. ConVenus is a lightweight middleware between the SDN controller and network devices, and is capable to intercept flow updates from the controller and verify whether the amount of traffic in any links and switches exceeds the desired capacity. To enable online verification, ConVenus dynamically identifies the minimum set of flows and switches that are affected by each flow update, and creates a compact network model. ConVenus uses a four-phase simulation algorithm to quickly compute the throughput of every flow in the network model and report network congestion. The experimental results demonstrate that ConVenus manages to verify 90% of the updates in a network consisting of over 500 hosts and 80 switches within 5 milliseconds.","PeriodicalId":367269,"journal":{"name":"2016 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"37 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122116290","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-12-11DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2016.7822244
Daniela Angulo Diaz, Raha Akhavan-Tabatabaei, I. Mura
Cervical cancer (CC) is the second leading cause of cancer-related deaths among Colombian women, caused most commonly by Human Papillomavirus (HPV) infection. Screening programs, vaccination against HPV and improved socio-economic conditions have significantly reduced CC mortality rate over the last 40 years. Understanding the transmission dynamics of HPV infection is essential to the definition of cost-effective disease control strategies. We propose a compartmentalized epidemiological simulation model based on differential equations, which represents HPV transmission within the population, likelihood of infection clearance, virus induced appearance of precancerous lesions and eventually of CC. Time-dependent birth and natural mortality rates inferred from census are used to calibrate model population dynamics. Literature data and 5-years medical records of 3,428 Colombian women are used to estimate the infection dynamics and cancerous stages. The model allows evaluating the predicted effects of vaccination strategies against HPV, providing valuable support to healthcare decision-makers.
{"title":"A compartmentalized simulation model for evaluation of HPV vaccination policies in Colombia","authors":"Daniela Angulo Diaz, Raha Akhavan-Tabatabaei, I. Mura","doi":"10.1109/WSC.2016.7822244","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2016.7822244","url":null,"abstract":"Cervical cancer (CC) is the second leading cause of cancer-related deaths among Colombian women, caused most commonly by Human Papillomavirus (HPV) infection. Screening programs, vaccination against HPV and improved socio-economic conditions have significantly reduced CC mortality rate over the last 40 years. Understanding the transmission dynamics of HPV infection is essential to the definition of cost-effective disease control strategies. We propose a compartmentalized epidemiological simulation model based on differential equations, which represents HPV transmission within the population, likelihood of infection clearance, virus induced appearance of precancerous lesions and eventually of CC. Time-dependent birth and natural mortality rates inferred from census are used to calibrate model population dynamics. Literature data and 5-years medical records of 3,428 Colombian women are used to estimate the infection dynamics and cancerous stages. The model allows evaluating the predicted effects of vaccination strategies against HPV, providing valuable support to healthcare decision-makers.","PeriodicalId":367269,"journal":{"name":"2016 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122181022","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-12-11DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2016.7822288
R. Leachman
It has been my good fortune and great privilege to lead major projects in the semiconductor industry to automate production planning, delivery quotation and factory execution. Looking back, successful development and implementation of systems for managing on-time delivery and efficient factory operation always entailed empathy for the professionals in terms of understanding and appreciating the challenges they face, garnering thorough domain knowledge, designing an excellent manufacturing systems architecture, reaching consensus on more structured business rules for factory operation and operations planning, careful and complete data maintenance - automated as much as possible - and practical algorithms and logic fully addressing the challenges. It also required equipping professionals with new skills, information and perspective plus changes in job descriptions and performance evaluations to better align professional efforts with company value and with new manufacturing systems. Analytical approaches will be described for the entire production cycle: capacity planning, production planning and delivery quotation, and factory floor execution.
{"title":"The engineering of speed and delivery","authors":"R. Leachman","doi":"10.1109/WSC.2016.7822288","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2016.7822288","url":null,"abstract":"It has been my good fortune and great privilege to lead major projects in the semiconductor industry to automate production planning, delivery quotation and factory execution. Looking back, successful development and implementation of systems for managing on-time delivery and efficient factory operation always entailed empathy for the professionals in terms of understanding and appreciating the challenges they face, garnering thorough domain knowledge, designing an excellent manufacturing systems architecture, reaching consensus on more structured business rules for factory operation and operations planning, careful and complete data maintenance - automated as much as possible - and practical algorithms and logic fully addressing the challenges. It also required equipping professionals with new skills, information and perspective plus changes in job descriptions and performance evaluations to better align professional efforts with company value and with new manufacturing systems. Analytical approaches will be described for the entire production cycle: capacity planning, production planning and delivery quotation, and factory floor execution.","PeriodicalId":367269,"journal":{"name":"2016 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128377245","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-12-11DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2016.7822319
K. Miwa, J. Nomura, S. Takakuwa
A systematic procedure for module-based modeling is designed and proposed to simulate of any multistage manufacturing flow type system adopting a dual-card kanban system with a delivery cycle. First, a functional analysis was performed to present kanban flows in exactly the same fashion in a simulation model as they actually appear in a real manufacturing system. One shipping area module, the required number of parts store modules, and one supplier center module were used to develop a designated simulation. Proposed modules have focused dialogs, animation, and modeling functionality. In addition, a procedure to obtain the necessity minimum number of kanbans to achieve no stock-out events is proposed. Then, a numerical example is shown to apply the proposed procedure.
{"title":"Module-based modeling and analysis of a manufacturing system adopting a dual-card kanban system with a delivery cycle","authors":"K. Miwa, J. Nomura, S. Takakuwa","doi":"10.1109/WSC.2016.7822319","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2016.7822319","url":null,"abstract":"A systematic procedure for module-based modeling is designed and proposed to simulate of any multistage manufacturing flow type system adopting a dual-card kanban system with a delivery cycle. First, a functional analysis was performed to present kanban flows in exactly the same fashion in a simulation model as they actually appear in a real manufacturing system. One shipping area module, the required number of parts store modules, and one supplier center module were used to develop a designated simulation. Proposed modules have focused dialogs, animation, and modeling functionality. In addition, a procedure to obtain the necessity minimum number of kanbans to achieve no stock-out events is proposed. Then, a numerical example is shown to apply the proposed procedure.","PeriodicalId":367269,"journal":{"name":"2016 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128591515","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-12-11DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2016.7822139
Xiaowei Zhang, Liang Ding
We consider a Bayesian ranking and selection problem in the presence of input distribution uncertainty. The distribution uncertainty is treated from a robust perspective. A naive extension of the knowledge gradient (KG) policy fails to converge in the new robust setting. We propose several stationary policies that extend KG in various aspects. Numerical experiments show that the proposed policies have excellent performance in terms of both probability of correction selection and normalized opportunity cost.
{"title":"Sequential sampling for Bayesian robust ranking and selection","authors":"Xiaowei Zhang, Liang Ding","doi":"10.1109/WSC.2016.7822139","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2016.7822139","url":null,"abstract":"We consider a Bayesian ranking and selection problem in the presence of input distribution uncertainty. The distribution uncertainty is treated from a robust perspective. A naive extension of the knowledge gradient (KG) policy fails to converge in the new robust setting. We propose several stationary policies that extend KG in various aspects. Numerical experiments show that the proposed policies have excellent performance in terms of both probability of correction selection and normalized opportunity cost.","PeriodicalId":367269,"journal":{"name":"2016 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128676913","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-12-11DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2016.7822177
Casey N. Bowman, J. Miller
Improving the efficiency, safety, and cost of road systems is an essential social problem that must be solved as the number of drivers, and the size of mass transit systems increase. Methodologies used for the construction of traffic simulations need to be examined in the context of real world big traffic data. This data can be used to create models for vehicle arrivals, turning behavior, and traffic flow. Our work focuses mainly on generating models for these concepts and using them to drive microscopic traffic simulations built upon real world data. Strengths and weaknesses of various simulation optimization techniques are also considered as a methodology issue, since the nature of traffic systems weakens the effectiveness of some optimization techniques.
{"title":"Modeling traffic flow using simulation and Big Data analytics","authors":"Casey N. Bowman, J. Miller","doi":"10.1109/WSC.2016.7822177","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2016.7822177","url":null,"abstract":"Improving the efficiency, safety, and cost of road systems is an essential social problem that must be solved as the number of drivers, and the size of mass transit systems increase. Methodologies used for the construction of traffic simulations need to be examined in the context of real world big traffic data. This data can be used to create models for vehicle arrivals, turning behavior, and traffic flow. Our work focuses mainly on generating models for these concepts and using them to drive microscopic traffic simulations built upon real world data. Strengths and weaknesses of various simulation optimization techniques are also considered as a methodology issue, since the nature of traffic systems weakens the effectiveness of some optimization techniques.","PeriodicalId":367269,"journal":{"name":"2016 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"70 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123491048","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-12-11DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2016.7822180
Lachlan Birdsey, Claudia Szabo, K. Falkner
Complex adaptive systems (CAS) are ubiquitous across many domains, such as social networks, supply chains, and smart cities. Currently, the modeling and analysis of CAS relies on adapting techniques used for multi-agent simulation, an approach which lacks several features crucial to CAS modeling, such as agents comprised of other agents, and considering methods for adaptation. Moreover, many existing approaches do not scale well, thus making them difficult to employ in analyzing realistic scenarios. In this paper, we propose the Complex Adaptive System Language (CASL), a declarative language that is able to capture the salient features of CAS while being general enough to be used across multiple domains. CASL facilitates the construction of complex models and our code generation method allows CASL models to be executed on a variety of platforms. We demonstrate the flexibility of CASL by implementing three distinct models, which are then executed using Repast.
{"title":"CASL: A declarative domain specific language for modeling Complex Adaptive Systems","authors":"Lachlan Birdsey, Claudia Szabo, K. Falkner","doi":"10.1109/WSC.2016.7822180","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2016.7822180","url":null,"abstract":"Complex adaptive systems (CAS) are ubiquitous across many domains, such as social networks, supply chains, and smart cities. Currently, the modeling and analysis of CAS relies on adapting techniques used for multi-agent simulation, an approach which lacks several features crucial to CAS modeling, such as agents comprised of other agents, and considering methods for adaptation. Moreover, many existing approaches do not scale well, thus making them difficult to employ in analyzing realistic scenarios. In this paper, we propose the Complex Adaptive System Language (CASL), a declarative language that is able to capture the salient features of CAS while being general enough to be used across multiple domains. CASL facilitates the construction of complex models and our code generation method allows CASL models to be executed on a variety of platforms. We demonstrate the flexibility of CASL by implementing three distinct models, which are then executed using Repast.","PeriodicalId":367269,"journal":{"name":"2016 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123612349","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-12-11DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2016.7822163
G. Thiers, Timothy Sprock, L. McGinnis, Adam Graunke, Michael Christian
A multi-year research project focused on a global aerospace company's design-to-production transition, and in particular how to answer production-related questions much earlier in a program's design cycle than is possible today. A fundamental difficulty is that the time and expertise required to formulate appropriate analysis models prevents their routine use, especially in new program development. The project's goal was to reduce these requirements, and by late 2014 a methodology had been developed for on-demand analysis generation to answer routine questions about production systems. A pilot project was conducted in 2015 to demonstrate efficacy, that an implementation of the methodology could in fact reduce by at least an order of magnitude the time required to answer a frequently-asked question, in a repeatable way while specification of the products, their process plans, planned facilities, and available resources were frequently changing. This paper summarizes the methodology, its pilot project implementation, and preliminary results.
{"title":"Automated production system simulations using commercial off-the-shelf simulation tools","authors":"G. Thiers, Timothy Sprock, L. McGinnis, Adam Graunke, Michael Christian","doi":"10.1109/WSC.2016.7822163","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2016.7822163","url":null,"abstract":"A multi-year research project focused on a global aerospace company's design-to-production transition, and in particular how to answer production-related questions much earlier in a program's design cycle than is possible today. A fundamental difficulty is that the time and expertise required to formulate appropriate analysis models prevents their routine use, especially in new program development. The project's goal was to reduce these requirements, and by late 2014 a methodology had been developed for on-demand analysis generation to answer routine questions about production systems. A pilot project was conducted in 2015 to demonstrate efficacy, that an implementation of the methodology could in fact reduce by at least an order of magnitude the time required to answer a frequently-asked question, in a repeatable way while specification of the products, their process plans, planned facilities, and available resources were frequently changing. This paper summarizes the methodology, its pilot project implementation, and preliminary results.","PeriodicalId":367269,"journal":{"name":"2016 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123613199","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-12-11DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2016.7822116
Dashi I. Singham, R. Szechtman
We introduce a new framework for performing multiple comparisons with a standard when simulation models are available to estimate the performance of many different systems. In this setting, a large proportion of the systems have mean performance from some known null distribution, and the goal is to select alternative systems whose means are different from that of the null distribution. We employ empirical Bayes ideas to achieve a bound on the false discovery rate (proportion of selected systems from the null distribution) and a desired probability an alternate type system is selected.
{"title":"Multiple comparisons with a standard using false discovery rates","authors":"Dashi I. Singham, R. Szechtman","doi":"10.1109/WSC.2016.7822116","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2016.7822116","url":null,"abstract":"We introduce a new framework for performing multiple comparisons with a standard when simulation models are available to estimate the performance of many different systems. In this setting, a large proportion of the systems have mean performance from some known null distribution, and the goal is to select alternative systems whose means are different from that of the null distribution. We employ empirical Bayes ideas to achieve a bound on the false discovery rate (proportion of selected systems from the null distribution) and a desired probability an alternate type system is selected.","PeriodicalId":367269,"journal":{"name":"2016 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114171626","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-12-11DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2016.7822190
Anatoli Djanatliev, F. Meier
Processes in hospitals or in other healthcare institutions are usually analyzed and optimized isolated for enclosed organizations like single hospital wards or certain clinical pathways. However, many workflows should be considered in a broader scope in order to better represent the reality, i.e., in combination with other processes and in contexts of macro structures. Therefore, an integrated view is necessary which enables to combine different coherences. This can be achieved by hybrid simulation. In this case, processes can be modeled and simulated by discrete simulation techniques (i.e., DES or ABS) at the meso-level. However, holistic structures can be comfortably implemented using continuous methods (i.e., SD). This paper presents a theoretical approach that enables to consider reciprocal influences between processes and higher level entities, but also to combine hospital workflows with other subjects (e.g., ambulance vehicles).
{"title":"Hospital processes within an integrated system view: A hybrid simulation approach","authors":"Anatoli Djanatliev, F. Meier","doi":"10.1109/WSC.2016.7822190","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2016.7822190","url":null,"abstract":"Processes in hospitals or in other healthcare institutions are usually analyzed and optimized isolated for enclosed organizations like single hospital wards or certain clinical pathways. However, many workflows should be considered in a broader scope in order to better represent the reality, i.e., in combination with other processes and in contexts of macro structures. Therefore, an integrated view is necessary which enables to combine different coherences. This can be achieved by hybrid simulation. In this case, processes can be modeled and simulated by discrete simulation techniques (i.e., DES or ABS) at the meso-level. However, holistic structures can be comfortably implemented using continuous methods (i.e., SD). This paper presents a theoretical approach that enables to consider reciprocal influences between processes and higher level entities, but also to combine hospital workflows with other subjects (e.g., ambulance vehicles).","PeriodicalId":367269,"journal":{"name":"2016 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121434352","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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