Pub Date : 2021-03-08DOI: 10.21098/BEMP.V24I0.1464
Anasuya Haldar, N. Sethi
This study investigates whether the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic caused a contagion and negatively affected the stock market. Using data from the 10 worst-hit countries over the period from December 2019 to May 2020 and an EGARCH model, the study shows that market speculations lead to negative stock returns and higher stock market volatility. Further, estimates of both bivariate time-series regression and random-effects panel regression show significant effects of COVID-19 related media coverage on the stock market.
{"title":"THE NEWS EFFECT OF COVID-19 ON GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKET VOLATILITY","authors":"Anasuya Haldar, N. Sethi","doi":"10.21098/BEMP.V24I0.1464","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21098/BEMP.V24I0.1464","url":null,"abstract":"This study investigates whether the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic caused a contagion and negatively affected the stock market. Using data from the 10 worst-hit countries over the period from December 2019 to May 2020 and an EGARCH model, the study shows that market speculations lead to negative stock returns and higher stock market volatility. Further, estimates of both bivariate time-series regression and random-effects panel regression show significant effects of COVID-19 related media coverage on the stock market.","PeriodicalId":36737,"journal":{"name":"Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49062414","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-12-31DOI: 10.21098/BEMP.V23I4.1043
Farhad Taghizadeh‐Hesary, N. Yoshino, Aline Mortha, Alvin Chiu, Niki Naderi
Hong Kong’s housing market witnessed a dramatic housing price appreciation in recent years, with the price index for private domestic housing units being three times higher than ten years ago. This trend is supported by both internal and external factors, as illustrated in this paper. By developing a theoretical model and an empirical analysis on the key variables influencing housing prices using monthly data from 1999 to 2018, we find that the main drivers of housing price appreciation are from the demand side and include income level, money supply and inflation. The main contribution of this study is the quantification of the role of Mainland China’s macroeconomic factors in housing price booms in Hong Kong. Our study shows that capital inflow from and inflation and recessions in Mainland China contribute to increasing housing prices in Hong Kong because the city’s real estate is seen as a way to preserve asset value. These findings call for the need for control of capital inflow between the two economies as well as for stricter regulations against empty houses in Hong Kong.
{"title":"INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL DETERMINANTS OF HOUSING PRICE BOOM IN HONG KONG","authors":"Farhad Taghizadeh‐Hesary, N. Yoshino, Aline Mortha, Alvin Chiu, Niki Naderi","doi":"10.21098/BEMP.V23I4.1043","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21098/BEMP.V23I4.1043","url":null,"abstract":"Hong Kong’s housing market witnessed a dramatic housing price appreciation in recent years, with the price index for private domestic housing units being three times higher than ten years ago. This trend is supported by both internal and external factors, as illustrated in this paper. By developing a theoretical model and an empirical analysis on the key variables influencing housing prices using monthly data from 1999 to 2018, we find that the main drivers of housing price appreciation are from the demand side and include income level, money supply and inflation. The main contribution of this study is the quantification of the role of Mainland China’s macroeconomic factors in housing price booms in Hong Kong. Our study shows that capital inflow from and inflation and recessions in Mainland China contribute to increasing housing prices in Hong Kong because the city’s real estate is seen as a way to preserve asset value. These findings call for the need for control of capital inflow between the two economies as well as for stricter regulations against empty houses in Hong Kong.","PeriodicalId":36737,"journal":{"name":"Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42283818","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-12-31DOI: 10.21098/BEMP.V23I4.1112
Chai-Thing Tan, A. Mohamed
This paper investigates whether monetary policies in Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore are best represented by either the Taylor rule or the augmented Taylor rule. It finds that the augmented Taylor rule, which incorporates the exchange rate and government spending, best represents monetary policies in these countries. The results show that past inflation and the output gap play a role in the monetary policy reaction function in Malaysia and Thailand. The results further show a strong preference towards interest rate smoothing, government spending, and the exchange rate by the central banks.
{"title":"MONETARY POLICY RULES IN MALAYSIA, SINGAPORE AND THAILAND","authors":"Chai-Thing Tan, A. Mohamed","doi":"10.21098/BEMP.V23I4.1112","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21098/BEMP.V23I4.1112","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates whether monetary policies in Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore are best represented by either the Taylor rule or the augmented Taylor rule. It finds that the augmented Taylor rule, which incorporates the exchange rate and government spending, best represents monetary policies in these countries. The results show that past inflation and the output gap play a role in the monetary policy reaction function in Malaysia and Thailand. The results further show a strong preference towards interest rate smoothing, government spending, and the exchange rate by the central banks.","PeriodicalId":36737,"journal":{"name":"Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46095269","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-12-02DOI: 10.21098/bemp.v23i3.1251
Vaseem Akram, B. N. Rath
In this study, we examine the role of export diversification in the convergence of per capita income (output). By applying the dynamic system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator to a panel dataset consisting of 95 countries, we find evidence of both absolute and conditional divergence for the full sample and the subsamples based on income and regions. Thus, our findings suggest that, although high export diversification boosts the per capita income (output), it does not significantly reduce per capita income (output) gap between rich and poor countries.
{"title":"DOES EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION LEAD TO INCOME CONVERGENCE? EVIDENCE FROM CROSS-COUNTRY ANALYSIS","authors":"Vaseem Akram, B. N. Rath","doi":"10.21098/bemp.v23i3.1251","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v23i3.1251","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, we examine the role of export diversification in the convergence of per capita income (output). By applying the dynamic system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator to a panel dataset consisting of 95 countries, we find evidence of both absolute and conditional divergence for the full sample and the subsamples based on income and regions. Thus, our findings suggest that, although high export diversification boosts the per capita income (output), it does not significantly reduce per capita income (output) gap between rich and poor countries.","PeriodicalId":36737,"journal":{"name":"Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47600506","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-12-02DOI: 10.21098/bemp.v23i3.1180
K. Makun, T. Jayaraman
This study examines the role of ICT as a factor in Indonesia’s financial sector development, remittances, and economic growth nexus using annual data from 1984-2017. We use the bounds testing procedure based on the Autoregressive Distributed Lag framework and the neoclassical growth model. The findings of the study reveal that ICT has indeed emerged as a significant factor in the remittance-growth nexus by playing a complementary role in financial sector development. The policy implication is that ICT needs to be supported at all levels and the financial inclusion process should be carried forward as it has all the potential to speed up economic growth and development.
{"title":"ROLE OF ICT AS A CONTINGENCY FACTOR IN FINANCIAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENT, REMITTANCES, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH NEXUS: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF INDONESIA","authors":"K. Makun, T. Jayaraman","doi":"10.21098/bemp.v23i3.1180","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v23i3.1180","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the role of ICT as a factor in Indonesia’s financial sector development, remittances, and economic growth nexus using annual data from 1984-2017. We use the bounds testing procedure based on the Autoregressive Distributed Lag framework and the neoclassical growth model. The findings of the study reveal that ICT has indeed emerged as a significant factor in the remittance-growth nexus by playing a complementary role in financial sector development. The policy implication is that ICT needs to be supported at all levels and the financial inclusion process should be carried forward as it has all the potential to speed up economic growth and development.","PeriodicalId":36737,"journal":{"name":"Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49044864","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-06-30DOI: 10.21098/bemp.v23i2.1173
S. N. M. Daud
This paper addresses the gap in the literature by investigating the role of the institutional quality in the nexus of external debt and economic growth. By employing a dynamic panel data analysis, we found that the institutional quality plays some role in complementing the effect of external debt on a country’s economic growth. We also found that the negative effect of external debt and a country’s economic growth monotonically increases with the level of institutional indicator, which implies the possibility of debt overhang may still happen in economies endowed with good institutions, but for higher values of debt.
{"title":"EXTERNAL DEBT, INSTITUTIONAL QUALITY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH","authors":"S. N. M. Daud","doi":"10.21098/bemp.v23i2.1173","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v23i2.1173","url":null,"abstract":"This paper addresses the gap in the literature by investigating the role of the institutional quality in the nexus of external debt and economic growth. By employing a dynamic panel data analysis, we found that the institutional quality plays some role in complementing the effect of external debt on a country’s economic growth. We also found that the negative effect of external debt and a country’s economic growth monotonically increases with the level of institutional indicator, which implies the possibility of debt overhang may still happen in economies endowed with good institutions, but for higher values of debt.","PeriodicalId":36737,"journal":{"name":"Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47044577","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-02-29DOI: 10.21098/bemp.v23i1.1084
Mutiara Aini, Deddy P. Koesrindartoto
This paper examines the determinants of systemic risk across Indonesian commercialbanks using quarterly data from 2001Q4 to 2017Q4. Employing four measures ofsystemic risk, namely value-at-risk (VaR), historical marginal expected shortfall(MESH), marginal expected shortfall from GARCH-DCC (MESdcc), and long-runmarginal expected shortfall (LRMES), we find that bank size is positively related tosystemic risk, whereas banks and economic loan activity are negatively related tosystemic risk. These findings suggest that the government needs to regulate loanactivities and to monitor big banks as they have significant impacts on bank systemicrisk.
{"title":"THE DETERMINANTS OF SYSTEMIC RISK: EVIDENCE FROM INDONESIAN COMMERCIAL BANKS","authors":"Mutiara Aini, Deddy P. Koesrindartoto","doi":"10.21098/bemp.v23i1.1084","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v23i1.1084","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the determinants of systemic risk across Indonesian commercialbanks using quarterly data from 2001Q4 to 2017Q4. Employing four measures ofsystemic risk, namely value-at-risk (VaR), historical marginal expected shortfall(MESH), marginal expected shortfall from GARCH-DCC (MESdcc), and long-runmarginal expected shortfall (LRMES), we find that bank size is positively related tosystemic risk, whereas banks and economic loan activity are negatively related tosystemic risk. These findings suggest that the government needs to regulate loanactivities and to monitor big banks as they have significant impacts on bank systemicrisk.","PeriodicalId":36737,"journal":{"name":"Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-02-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48616183","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-31DOI: 10.21098/bemp.v23i0.1160
Zhichao Yin, L. Meng, Yezhou Sha
This paper investigates agriculture-related loan default in 2002–2009 through a largedata set from a leading Chinese state-owned bank. Using logit regression, we findthe default rate on agriculture-related loans is significantly higher than that on non–agriculture-related loans. We find that base interest rates, loan maturity, the typeof collateral, firm size, ownership structure, and managerial quality rating have asignificant impact on agriculture-related loan default, but this also depends on howagriculture-related loans are defined. The results provide insight into the real impactof monetary policy on agriculture-related lending.
{"title":"DETERMINANTS OF AGRICULTURE-RELATED LOAN DEFAULT: EVIDENCE FROM CHINA","authors":"Zhichao Yin, L. Meng, Yezhou Sha","doi":"10.21098/bemp.v23i0.1160","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v23i0.1160","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates agriculture-related loan default in 2002–2009 through a largedata set from a leading Chinese state-owned bank. Using logit regression, we findthe default rate on agriculture-related loans is significantly higher than that on non–agriculture-related loans. We find that base interest rates, loan maturity, the typeof collateral, firm size, ownership structure, and managerial quality rating have asignificant impact on agriculture-related loan default, but this also depends on howagriculture-related loans are defined. The results provide insight into the real impactof monetary policy on agriculture-related lending.","PeriodicalId":36737,"journal":{"name":"Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45220749","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-31DOI: 10.21098/bemp.v23i0.1178
K. Makun, T. Jayaraman
This paper investigates the impact of information and communications technology(ICT) on economic growth in Pacific Island countries by employing an augmentedproduction function model and panel data analysis from 2002 to 2017. The empiricalfindings reveal that ICT-related indicators have a positive and significant impact on theeconomic growth process, along with the fundamental variable of capital stock. Theeffect of control variables such as foreign direct investment and exports have a positiveeffect on the real gross domestic product per capita, whereas inflation has a negativeeffect. The sensitivity evaluation of ICT indicators with different control variablesproduces consistent evidence of ICT’s effect on economic growth. Policymakersas well as ICT stakeholders should enhance investments for improving ICT-relatedinfrastructure and promoting technology to boost economic growth in Pacific Islandcountries.
{"title":"SPREAD OF ICT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES: A PANEL STUDY","authors":"K. Makun, T. Jayaraman","doi":"10.21098/bemp.v23i0.1178","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v23i0.1178","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the impact of information and communications technology(ICT) on economic growth in Pacific Island countries by employing an augmentedproduction function model and panel data analysis from 2002 to 2017. The empiricalfindings reveal that ICT-related indicators have a positive and significant impact on theeconomic growth process, along with the fundamental variable of capital stock. Theeffect of control variables such as foreign direct investment and exports have a positiveeffect on the real gross domestic product per capita, whereas inflation has a negativeeffect. The sensitivity evaluation of ICT indicators with different control variablesproduces consistent evidence of ICT’s effect on economic growth. Policymakersas well as ICT stakeholders should enhance investments for improving ICT-relatedinfrastructure and promoting technology to boost economic growth in Pacific Islandcountries.","PeriodicalId":36737,"journal":{"name":"Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41916320","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-17DOI: 10.21098/bemp.v22i4.1236
M. Ibrahim, S. Law
This paper empirically analyses the role of Islamic banking in financial intermediation costs as measured by net interest margins for a leading dual banking country, Malaysia. Controlling for theoretically motivated determinants of the margins, the paper compares the interest/financing margins of conventional and Islamic banks and examines the impacts of Islamic banking presence on bank margins. The analysis provides evidence of the higher margins of Islamic banks compared to those of conventional banks. Further, the difference in bank margins between the two types of banks can be attributed to differences in market power, operating costs, and diversification. Finally, Islamic banking presence or penetration, as represented by the ratio of Islamic financing to aggregate bank credit/financing and, alternatively, the share of Islamic banking assets, is robustly associated with lower bank margins, on average. These results bear important implications for the development of the Islamic banking industry and in fostering the efficient allocation of financial resources by the banking system.
{"title":"FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION COSTS IN A DUAL BANKING SYSTEM: THE ROLE OF ISLAMIC BANKING","authors":"M. Ibrahim, S. Law","doi":"10.21098/bemp.v22i4.1236","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v22i4.1236","url":null,"abstract":"This paper empirically analyses the role of Islamic banking in financial intermediation costs as measured by net interest margins for a leading dual banking country, Malaysia. Controlling for theoretically motivated determinants of the margins, the paper compares the interest/financing margins of conventional and Islamic banks and examines the impacts of Islamic banking presence on bank margins. The analysis provides evidence of the higher margins of Islamic banks compared to those of conventional banks. Further, the difference in bank margins between the two types of banks can be attributed to differences in market power, operating costs, and diversification. Finally, Islamic banking presence or penetration, as represented by the ratio of Islamic financing to aggregate bank credit/financing and, alternatively, the share of Islamic banking assets, is robustly associated with lower bank margins, on average. These results bear important implications for the development of the Islamic banking industry and in fostering the efficient allocation of financial resources by the banking system.","PeriodicalId":36737,"journal":{"name":"Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47608712","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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