Pub Date : 2024-01-01DOI: 10.1016/j.fsisyn.2024.100466
Stijn van Lierop , Daniel Ramos , Marjan Sjerps , Rolf Ypma
There is increasing support for reporting evidential strength as a likelihood ratio (LR) and increasing interest in (semi-)automated LR systems. The log-likelihood ratio cost (Cllr) is a popular metric for such systems, penalizing misleading LRs further from 1 more. Cllr = 0 indicates perfection while Cllr = 1 indicates an uninformative system. However, beyond this, what constitutes a “good” Cllr is unclear.
Aiming to provide handles on when a Cllr is “good”, we studied 136 publications on (semi-)automated LR systems. Results show Cllr use heavily depends on the field, e.g., being absent in DNA analysis. Despite more publications on automated LR systems over time, the proportion reporting Cllr remains stable. Noticeably, Cllr values lack clear patterns and depend on the area, analysis and dataset.
As LR systems become more prevalent, comparing them becomes crucial. This is hampered by different studies using different datasets. We advocate using public benchmark datasets to advance the field.
越来越多的人支持用似然比(LR)来报告证据强度,对(半)自动化 LR 系统的兴趣也与日俱增。对数似然比成本(Cllr)是此类系统的常用指标,它对误导性的似然比(LR)进行惩罚,离 1 越远,惩罚越多。Cllr = 0 表示系统完美,而 Cllr = 1 则表示系统信息不全。我们研究了 136 篇关于(半)自动 LR 系统的出版物,旨在了解什么情况下 Cllr 是 "好 "的。结果表明,Cllr的使用在很大程度上取决于领域,例如,在DNA分析中就不存在Cllr。尽管随着时间的推移,关于自动 LR 系统的论文越来越多,但报告 Cllr 的比例却保持稳定。值得注意的是,Cllr 值缺乏明确的模式,取决于领域、分析和数据集。随着 LR 系统的普及,对它们进行比较变得至关重要。由于不同的研究使用不同的数据集,因此比较工作受到阻碍。我们主张使用公共基准数据集来推动这一领域的发展。
{"title":"An overview of log likelihood ratio cost in forensic science – Where is it used and what values can we expect?","authors":"Stijn van Lierop , Daniel Ramos , Marjan Sjerps , Rolf Ypma","doi":"10.1016/j.fsisyn.2024.100466","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fsisyn.2024.100466","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>There is increasing support for reporting evidential strength as a likelihood ratio (LR) and increasing interest in (semi-)automated LR systems. The log-likelihood ratio cost (<em>C</em><sub><em>llr</em></sub>) is a popular metric for such systems, penalizing misleading LRs further from 1 more. <em>C</em><sub><em>llr</em></sub> = 0 indicates perfection while <em>C</em><sub><em>llr</em></sub> = 1 indicates an uninformative system. However, beyond this, what constitutes a “good” <em>C</em><sub><em>llr</em></sub> is unclear.</p><p>Aiming to provide handles on when a <em>C</em><sub><em>llr</em></sub> is “good”, we studied 136 publications on (semi-)automated LR systems. Results show <em>C</em><sub><em>llr</em></sub> use heavily depends on the field, e.g., being absent in DNA analysis. Despite more publications on automated LR systems over time, the proportion reporting <em>C</em><sub><em>llr</em></sub> remains stable. Noticeably, <em>C</em><sub><em>llr</em></sub> values lack clear patterns and depend on the area, analysis and dataset.</p><p>As LR systems become more prevalent, comparing them becomes crucial. This is hampered by different studies using different datasets. We advocate using public benchmark datasets to advance the field.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":36925,"journal":{"name":"Forensic Science International: Synergy","volume":"8 ","pages":"Article 100466"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589871X24000135/pdfft?md5=ba5837ba032d15cb5b24187d341f287f&pid=1-s2.0-S2589871X24000135-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140606624","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-01-01DOI: 10.1016/j.fsisyn.2024.100455
David A. Keatley
No-body homicide cases are typically difficult to investigate, owing to the lack of forensics and leads. Researchers in the fields of forensics, criminology, and psychology have attempted to provide assistance to these investigations through their respective disciplines. The focus of the current case study review is on a combined approach to assisting in no-body homicides and cold cases. The proposed approach will outline a geographical profiling technique that has previously been used in no-body homicide investigations, Winthropping. Alongside this, forensic linguistic analyses will be outlined to show how a combination may provide fresh leads and investigative avenues for further exploration. A series of 4 real-world cases in which bodies were moved, dumped, and hidden by a suspect, who subsequently revealed knowledge of the clandestine grave are given. The aim is that readers from related fields and disciplines might synergistically collaborate to develop the area and further help in these cases.
{"title":"Finding the here in where: Keatley’s Winthropping in missing persons and no-body homicide cases","authors":"David A. Keatley","doi":"10.1016/j.fsisyn.2024.100455","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fsisyn.2024.100455","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>No-body homicide cases are typically difficult to investigate, owing to the lack of forensics and leads. Researchers in the fields of forensics, criminology, and psychology have attempted to provide assistance to these investigations through their respective disciplines. The focus of the current case study review is on a combined approach to assisting in no-body homicides and cold cases. The proposed approach will outline a geographical profiling technique that has previously been used in no-body homicide investigations, Winthropping. Alongside this, forensic linguistic analyses will be outlined to show how a combination may provide fresh leads and investigative avenues for further exploration. A series of 4 real-world cases in which bodies were moved, dumped, and hidden by a suspect, who subsequently revealed knowledge of the clandestine grave are given. The aim is that readers from related fields and disciplines might synergistically collaborate to develop the area and further help in these cases.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":36925,"journal":{"name":"Forensic Science International: Synergy","volume":"8 ","pages":"Article 100455"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589871X24000020/pdfft?md5=af0d66967003491444984cb14e8aa880&pid=1-s2.0-S2589871X24000020-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139699654","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-01-01DOI: 10.1016/j.fsisyn.2024.100483
Anna L. Heavey , Max M. Houck
The high value placed on forensic information in the criminal justice process is demonstrated by the fallout resulting when questions are raised as to the validity of methods used, deficiencies in the understanding of the limitations of results, or uncertainties around the professional expertise or ethical practices of the provider of the information. To effectively act as the “speaker” for the scientific evidence in court, forensic science needs to have credibility. The workshop “Rethinking scientific communication in courts” held at the Australian National University College of Law in November 2023 explored the subject of science communication in the legal context through the lens of philosophy, law, forensic service provision and meta-science, demonstrating the unique challenges placed on the field of forensic science as a scientific profession confined and defined within a non-scientific system. Stemming from the discussions at the workshop, this paper examines the notion of credibility in science, how forensic science aligns with the hallmarks of a credible scientific community and the influence this has on our understandings of scientific communication in courts.
{"title":"Rethinking scientific communication in courts: A question of credibility","authors":"Anna L. Heavey , Max M. Houck","doi":"10.1016/j.fsisyn.2024.100483","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fsisyn.2024.100483","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The high value placed on forensic information in the criminal justice process is demonstrated by the fallout resulting when questions are raised as to the validity of methods used, deficiencies in the understanding of the limitations of results, or uncertainties around the professional expertise or ethical practices of the provider of the information. To effectively act as the “speaker” for the scientific evidence in court, forensic science needs to have credibility. The workshop “Rethinking scientific communication in courts” held at the Australian National University College of Law in November 2023 explored the subject of science communication in the legal context through the lens of philosophy, law, forensic service provision and meta-science, demonstrating the unique challenges placed on the field of forensic science as a scientific profession confined and defined within a non-scientific system. Stemming from the discussions at the workshop, this paper examines the notion of credibility in science, how forensic science aligns with the hallmarks of a credible scientific community and the influence this has on our understandings of scientific communication in courts.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":36925,"journal":{"name":"Forensic Science International: Synergy","volume":"9 ","pages":"Article 100483"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589871X24000305/pdfft?md5=eef4af45476f648582889923d4279af2&pid=1-s2.0-S2589871X24000305-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141333224","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-01-01DOI: 10.1016/j.fsisyn.2024.100471
Ray A. Wickenheiser , Catherine M. Knutson
Forensic laboratories face a multitude of challenges when striving to deliver services to the criminal justice system. While many of these issues change over time, one in particular seems to endure the test of time … the need for faster results. Law enforcement wants and needs quicker response times to access critical information required to investigate their cases. One answer to this persistent problem is evolving technology. Technology not only permits a much quicker response than forensic laboratories are currently delivering, it can open the door to solving previously unsolvable cases. Along with applying new technology, an evaluation of current forensic laboratory product lines, service delivery models, and mindset regarding the role of forensic science-based investigative leads (termed forensic leads) is warranted. Resources and strategic planning are needed to realize the full potential of evolving technologies and what forensic laboratories can do to provide actionable and timely forensic leads to our criminal justice partners as a normal course of action instead of as an exception.
This proposal is to establish a permanent, designated Forensic Lead Program (FLP) that resides under the umbrella of an accredited forensic laboratory and is tasked with the development and release of forensic leads. The FLP involves a focused menu of services, defined personnel roles, strict protocols, short turnaround time, standardized expectations, and targeted training, combined with the sense of urgency needed for consistent delivery of timely and actionable forensic leads. A dedicated FLP will save time and money by providing critical information for more focused investigations. ‘Speed is the need’ … for quick identification of those that threaten public safety and for the equally quick elimination of those wrongfully accused.
Programs at two large state forensic laboratories will demonstrate how these concepts could be implemented along with their learning experiences. A business case will also be included to demonstrate the cost benefit of the Forensic Lead Program for DNA (CODIS – Combined DNA Index System) and NIBIN (National Integrated Ballistic Information Network), however other section services are expected to see similar benefits. Improving the response time by one day saves $1677.75 per $1 spent [1]. The return on investment (ROI) for applying DNA to firearms evidence returns $47.88 per $1 spent, or an 4,788 % ROI. Applying NIBIN (National Integrated Ballistic Information Network) to firearms evidence to provide investigative leads is $502.19 per $1 spent, which is a 50,219 % ROI. Recasting the forensic laboratory product line and service delivery model to ‘Lead with Speed’ makes both economic and investigative sense.
{"title":"Lead with speed: Recasting the forensic laboratory product line and service delivery model","authors":"Ray A. Wickenheiser , Catherine M. Knutson","doi":"10.1016/j.fsisyn.2024.100471","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fsisyn.2024.100471","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Forensic laboratories face a multitude of challenges when striving to deliver services to the criminal justice system. While many of these issues change over time, one in particular seems to endure the test of time … the need for faster results. Law enforcement wants and needs quicker response times to access critical information required to investigate their cases. One answer to this persistent problem is evolving technology. Technology not only permits a much quicker response than forensic laboratories are currently delivering, it can open the door to solving previously unsolvable cases. Along with applying new technology, an evaluation of current forensic laboratory product lines, service delivery models, and mindset regarding the role of forensic science-based investigative leads (termed forensic leads) is warranted. Resources and strategic planning are needed to realize the full potential of evolving technologies and what forensic laboratories can do to provide actionable and timely forensic leads to our criminal justice partners as a normal course of action instead of as an exception.</p><p>This proposal is to establish a permanent, designated Forensic Lead Program (FLP) that resides under the umbrella of an accredited forensic laboratory and is tasked with the development and release of forensic leads. The FLP involves a focused menu of services, defined personnel roles, strict protocols, short turnaround time, standardized expectations, and targeted training, combined with the sense of urgency needed for consistent delivery of timely and actionable forensic leads. A dedicated FLP will save time and money by providing critical information for more focused investigations. ‘Speed is the need’ … for quick identification of those that threaten public safety and for the equally quick elimination of those wrongfully accused.</p><p>Programs at two large state forensic laboratories will demonstrate how these concepts could be implemented along with their learning experiences. A business case will also be included to demonstrate the cost benefit of the Forensic Lead Program for DNA (CODIS – Combined DNA Index System) and NIBIN (National Integrated Ballistic Information Network), however other section services are expected to see similar benefits. Improving the response time by one day saves $1677.75 per $1 spent [1]. The return on investment (ROI) for applying DNA to firearms evidence returns $47.88 per $1 spent, or an 4,788 % ROI. Applying NIBIN (National Integrated Ballistic Information Network) to firearms evidence to provide investigative leads is $502.19 per $1 spent, which is a 50,219 % ROI. Recasting the forensic laboratory product line and service delivery model to ‘Lead with Speed’ makes both economic and investigative sense.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":36925,"journal":{"name":"Forensic Science International: Synergy","volume":"8 ","pages":"Article 100471"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589871X24000184/pdfft?md5=03772c2365e808825151e915718915c2&pid=1-s2.0-S2589871X24000184-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140822735","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-01-01DOI: 10.1016/j.fsisyn.2024.100478
Pernille Lund Hansen , Peter Mygind Leth , Pernille Aagaard Nielsen , Dina Maria Bech , Julie Brandhøj Nielsen , Svea Deppe Mørup , Anette Koch Holst , Lene Bak , Mette R. Poulsen , Pernille W. Greisen , Dennis Lund Hansen , Helle Precht
Aim
Postmortem Computed Tomography (PMCT) is gradually introduced at forensic institutes. Image reconstruction software can increase diagnostic potential in CT by increasing distinction between structures and reduction of artifacts. The aim of this study was to develop and evaluate novel image reconstruction parameters for postmortem conditions, to increase image quality and diagnostic potential of CT scans.
Method
Twenty PMCT scans of deceased hereof two in severe decay were subjected to four reconstruction techniques: a standard reconstruction algorithm, the detail reconstruction algorithm and two novel algorithms based on the standard algorithm, but with different Hounsfield settings. Image quality was evaluated by visual grading analysis (VGA) by four forensic radiologist observers.
Results
The VGA did not prove that any of the reconstruction techniques were superior to the others. For standard and detail, the two pre-defined reconstruction algorithms, VGA scores were indiscernible and were superior to the equally indiscernible Hounsfield reconstructions on parameters translated into Sharpness and Low Contrast Resolution. The two alternative Hounsfield settings were superior with respect to Noise and Artifacts/Beam Hardening.
Conclusion
The study elucidates the possiblity for multiple reconstructions specialized for PMCT conditions, to accommodate the special conditions when working with the deceased. Despite the lack of clear improvements in the tested reconstructions, this study provides an insight into some of the possibilities of improving PMCT quality using reconstruction techniques.
{"title":"Optimization of Postprocessing parameters for abdominal Forensic CT scans","authors":"Pernille Lund Hansen , Peter Mygind Leth , Pernille Aagaard Nielsen , Dina Maria Bech , Julie Brandhøj Nielsen , Svea Deppe Mørup , Anette Koch Holst , Lene Bak , Mette R. Poulsen , Pernille W. Greisen , Dennis Lund Hansen , Helle Precht","doi":"10.1016/j.fsisyn.2024.100478","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fsisyn.2024.100478","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Aim</h3><p>Postmortem Computed Tomography (PMCT) is gradually introduced at forensic institutes. Image reconstruction software can increase diagnostic potential in CT by increasing distinction between structures and reduction of artifacts. The aim of this study was to develop and evaluate novel image reconstruction parameters for postmortem conditions, to increase image quality and diagnostic potential of CT scans.</p></div><div><h3>Method</h3><p>Twenty PMCT scans of deceased hereof two in severe decay were subjected to four reconstruction techniques: a standard reconstruction algorithm, the detail reconstruction algorithm and two novel algorithms based on the standard algorithm, but with different Hounsfield settings. Image quality was evaluated by visual grading analysis (VGA) by four forensic radiologist observers.</p></div><div><h3>Results</h3><p>The VGA did not prove that any of the reconstruction techniques were superior to the others. For standard and detail, the two pre-defined reconstruction algorithms, VGA scores were indiscernible and were superior to the equally indiscernible Hounsfield reconstructions on parameters translated into Sharpness and Low Contrast Resolution. The two alternative Hounsfield settings were superior with respect to Noise and Artifacts/Beam Hardening.</p></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><p>The study elucidates the possiblity for multiple reconstructions specialized for PMCT conditions, to accommodate the special conditions when working with the deceased. Despite the lack of clear improvements in the tested reconstructions, this study provides an insight into some of the possibilities of improving PMCT quality using reconstruction techniques.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":36925,"journal":{"name":"Forensic Science International: Synergy","volume":"8 ","pages":"Article 100478"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589871X24000251/pdfft?md5=074253a54ad14b2e492b70be0c2f2794&pid=1-s2.0-S2589871X24000251-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140918527","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-01-01DOI: 10.1016/j.fsisyn.2024.100546
M. Vink , J.A. de Koeijer , M.J. Sjerps
Most of the forensic evidence evaluations given activity level propositions are centered around an item which is assumed to be linked to an alleged activity. However, the relation between an item of interest and an activity may be contested. This study presents a template Bayesian network (BN) for the evaluation of transfer evidence given activity level propositions considering a dispute about the relation of an item to one or more activities. The template BN includes a set of association propositions that enables the combined evaluation of evidence concerning alleged activities of the suspect and evidence concerning the use of an alleged item in those activities. Since the two types of evidence are often from different forensic disciplines, the BN is especially useful in interdisciplinary casework. Throughout the paper, we use a fictive case example that captures the essence of cases for which the template model can be used. The template BN provides a flexible starting point that can be adapted to specific case situations and supports structured probabilistic reasoning by a forensic scientist.
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Pub Date : 2024-01-01DOI: 10.1016/j.fsisyn.2024.100518
Mark Mogle, Gian Cho
{"title":"Leadership in the International Forensic Community - A Panel Discussion","authors":"Mark Mogle, Gian Cho","doi":"10.1016/j.fsisyn.2024.100518","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.fsisyn.2024.100518","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":36925,"journal":{"name":"Forensic Science International: Synergy","volume":"8 ","pages":"Article 100518"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589871X24000652/pdfft?md5=e6b0b5e2d9a744a92a634cb54d29a774&pid=1-s2.0-S2589871X24000652-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142147617","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}