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The impact of Covid-19 on the finances of multinational enterprises from the perspective of Balance of Payments transactions 从国际收支角度看新冠肺炎疫情对跨国企业财务的影响
Pub Date : 2021-06-22 DOI: 10.18559/978-83-8211-061-6/i8
Monika Andrzejczak
Purpose: The analysis of the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the finances of economic entities from the perspective of the structure of financing, investments and dividend policy. Design/methodology/approach: The research covered the countries of the EU, due to the specific type of ties between these countries. Research stages: 1. Classification of countries in terms of the selected IIP and the BP statistics and macroeconomic data in 2018–2019 (pre-pandemic period), average levels for 2018–2019 in relation to GDP; 2. Presentation of the development of selected monthly BP statistics during the pandemic period (from January 2020), in terms of: (i) changes in the share of GDP (first half of 2020 in relation to the first half of 2019); (ii) year on year changes. Research methodology: data source: Eurostat, annual, quarterly, and monthly data in million EUR, the collected statistics were adjusted to the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). Findings: At the end of November 2020, it is difficult to identify the pattern of changes to the flows of the discussed categories based on the analysis of information from the pre-pandemic period. Practical implications: The creation of a“new” division between the EU countries as a result of Covid-19 may result in a change in the priorities of functioning within the entire Union and in a change in the rules of redistribution of the EU funds. Originality and value: An original way of framing decisions on capital structure, investment decisions and dividend policy through the prism of the Balance of Payments flows.
目的:从融资结构、投资结构和股利政策等角度分析新冠肺炎疫情对经济主体财务的影响。设计/方法/方法:由于这些国家之间的特定类型的关系,该研究涵盖了欧盟国家。研究阶段:1。根据选定的IIP和BP统计数据以及2018-2019年(大流行前时期)的宏观经济数据对国家进行分类,2018-2019年与GDP相关的平均水平;2. 介绍大流行期间(自2020年1月起)选定的月度BP统计数据的发展情况,包括:(i) GDP份额的变化(2020年上半年与2019年上半年相比);(ii)年度变动情况。研究方法:数据来源:欧盟统计局,年度、季度和月度数据,单位为百万欧元,收集的统计数据根据消费者价格协调指数(HICP)进行调整。调查结果:截至2020年11月底,根据对大流行前时期信息的分析,很难确定所讨论类别的流量变化模式。实际影响:2019冠状病毒病在欧盟国家之间造成的“新”划分可能导致整个联盟内部运作优先事项的变化,以及欧盟资金再分配规则的变化。原创性和价值:通过国际收支流动的棱镜,对资本结构、投资决策和股息政策进行框架决策的一种原始方式。
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引用次数: 2
Internal substitution in the tourism market: Effects of the Covid-19 pandemic 旅游市场的内部替代:Covid-19大流行的影响
Pub Date : 2021-06-22 DOI: 10.18559/978-83-8211-061-6/ii1
A. Niezgoda, E. Markiewicz, K. Kowalska
Purpose: The effects of the global COVID-19 pandemic are difficult to estimate, but the impact on the tourism industry is undeniable. This also applies to consumers’ behavior in the tourism market, whose attitudes towards travel may change radically. The aim of this chapter is to analyze substitution processes in the tourism market caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Design/methodology/approach: This paper is a review in nature and includes papers on tourism economics, particularly the tourism market, as well as secondary data on changes in tourism (tourism participation and consumer behavior) due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings: The Covid-19 pandemic does not have to be the factor slowing travels, as it may affect internal substitution on the tourism market. In the situation of the Covid-19 pandemic, all internal substitution options listed in the chapter were noticed on the tourism market in Poland. Research limitations/implications: As long as the emergency situation restricting the functioning of the tourism market continues, the results of the study cannot be definitive. Practical implications: The results can be useful for tour operators, especially in the process of planning tourism development after the crisis caused by the pandemic. Social implications: The chapter indicates changes in consumer behavior on the tourism market caused by COVID-19 pandemic, which may characterize tourists after the end of the pandemic. Originality and value: The article identifies types of internal substitution that occurred in the tourism market in Poland as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.
目的:全球COVID-19大流行的影响难以估计,但对旅游业的影响是不可否认的。这也适用于旅游市场消费者的行为,他们对旅游的态度可能会发生根本性的变化。本章的目的是分析COVID-19大流行导致的旅游市场替代过程。设计/方法/方法:本文本质上是一篇综述,包括关于旅游经济学,特别是旅游市场的论文,以及关于2019冠状病毒病大流行导致旅游业(旅游参与和消费者行为)变化的二手数据。研究结果:新冠肺炎大流行不一定是旅游放缓的因素,因为它可能会影响旅游市场的内部替代。在2019冠状病毒病大流行的情况下,波兰旅游市场注意到本章列出的所有内部替代方案。研究局限/影响:只要限制旅游市场运作的紧急情况继续存在,研究的结果就不可能是确定的。实际影响:研究结果可对旅游经营者有用,特别是在疫情造成危机后规划旅游业发展的过程中。社会影响:本章指出了COVID-19大流行导致的旅游市场消费者行为的变化,这可能是大流行结束后游客的特征。原创性和价值:本文确定了由于COVID-19大流行而在波兰旅游市场上发生的内部替代类型。
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引用次数: 3
Future competences in times of an economic crisis 在经济危机时期的未来能力
Pub Date : 2021-06-22 DOI: 10.18559/978-83-8211-061-6/iii2
Anna Łupicka
Purpose: The aim of the chapter is to present the competence patterns before and during the economic crisis and to determine the importance of individual competences for doing business in a turbulent environment. In many sectors of the economy, global changes triggered by Covid-19 called into question the use of existing sets of competences needed to run businesses effectively in supply chains. The continuous improvement of supply chains – or lean and agile management – will no longer work in current conditions. Faced with an increasingly unstable economy triggered by a global pandemic, many economists ask whether the existing competence patterns in companies or supply chains remain appropriate and proper for the current economic situation. Design/methodology/approach: In 2017, a survey was conducted among selected experts in the pharmaceutical sector. The same questionnaire distributed in September 2020, during the Covid-19 pandemic. The experts were highly qualified managers employed in transnational companies. The 10 respondents were asked to indicate selected competencies. The choice of the pharmaceutical sector was motivated primarily by its specific characteristics as it is particularly important not only economically but also socially, by providing life-saving medicines. Findings: Technical competences are becoming the necessary ones. This is due to the need for self-sufficiency in lockdown situations, when it is difficult to find external employees and the possibility of outsourcing skills. In the case of managerial competence, it is clear that creativity and entrepreneurial thinking have increased in importance. When analyzing social competences, what comes to the fore is diversity of intercultural skills: foreign language skills, the ability to compromise, the ability to transfer knowledge, and finally, the ability to adapt to change. Originality and value: This chapter answer what competences seem necessary for future managers in the pharmaceutical industry in a turbulent environment, which is crucial for research and teaching centers who seek to educate future managers at the highest level of specific competences and skills. Due to the dynamic development of the industry, the text identifies the needs in the areas of technical, managerial, and social skills.
目的:本章的目的是呈现经济危机前和危机期间的能力模式,并确定在动荡的环境中开展业务的个人能力的重要性。在许多经济部门,新冠肺炎引发的全球变化对在供应链中有效运营企业所需的现有能力的使用提出了质疑。供应链的持续改进——或精益和敏捷管理——将不再适用于当前的条件。面对全球大流行引发的日益不稳定的经济,许多经济学家质疑,现有的企业或供应链能力模式是否仍然适合当前的经济形势。设计/方法/方法:2017年,在选定的制药行业专家中进行了一项调查。在2019冠状病毒病大流行期间,2020年9月分发了相同的问卷。这些专家都是受雇于跨国公司的高素质管理人员。10个答复者被要求指出选定的能力。选择制药部门的动机主要是考虑到它的具体特点,因为它不仅在经济上而且在社会上都特别重要,因为它提供挽救生命的药物。发现:技术能力正在成为必备技能。这是由于在封锁情况下需要自给自足,因为很难找到外部员工,而且有可能外包技能。就管理能力而言,很明显,创造力和企业家思维的重要性有所增加。在分析社交能力时,最突出的是跨文化技能的多样性:外语技能、妥协能力、知识转移能力,最后是适应变化的能力。原创性和价值:本章回答了在动荡的环境中,制药行业未来管理者所必需的能力,这对于那些寻求以最高水平的特定能力和技能培养未来管理者的研究和教学中心至关重要。由于行业的动态发展,文本确定了在技术,管理和社会技能领域的需求。
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引用次数: 2
Consumer acceptance of AR Technology in e-commerce in the light of the Covid-19 pandemic: A conceptual perspective 新冠疫情背景下消费者对电子商务中增强现实技术的接受程度:概念视角
Pub Date : 2021-06-22 DOI: 10.18559/978-83-8211-061-6/ii6
Ma³gorzata Bartosik-Purgat, T. Grzegorczyk, Wiktoria Rakowska
Purpose: The main objective of the chapter is threefold: to conduct literature review, to develop a model of consumer acceptance of augmented reality (AR) in e-commerce, and research hypotheses. The model will emphasize the factors (motives and risks) affecting the acceptance of AR technologies by e-commerce consumers. Design/methodology/approach: The study used inductive research approach whose results will be the key basis for primary research. The main research method was literature review: the meta-synthesis method. Findings: We developed a model of factors influencing the acceptance of AR technology in e-commerce based on the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT2). The following factors were included into the proposed model as predictors of acceptance: performance expectancy, effort expectancy, hedonic motivation, perceived AR risk, privacy risk. Research limitations/implications: The main limitation of this research is its conceptual character. Future research should aim to empirically verify the proposed model. Practical implications: By showing the possibilities and actual acceptance of AR’s use in selected countries, the research might contribute to the development of a set of guidelines for enterprises in the e-commerce branch and, eventually, improve their international competitiveness, e.g. by guiding product and promotion strategies. Originality and value: Based on the literature review, this chapter proposes anovel research model of consumer acceptance of AR in e-commerce, which can be verified in the future research.
目的:本章的主要目的有三个:进行文献综述,建立消费者对电子商务中增强现实(AR)的接受度模型,研究假设。该模型将强调影响电子商务消费者接受AR技术的因素(动机和风险)。设计/方法/方法:本研究采用归纳研究法,其结果将成为主要研究的关键基础。主要的研究方法是文献综述:综合方法。研究结果:基于技术接受与使用统一理论(UTAUT2),我们建立了影响电子商务中AR技术接受程度的因素模型。以下因素被纳入到所提出的模型中作为接受度的预测因子:绩效预期、努力预期、享乐动机、感知AR风险、隐私风险。研究局限/启示:本研究的主要局限在于其概念性。未来的研究应旨在实证验证所提出的模型。实际意义:通过展示AR在选定国家使用的可能性和实际接受度,本研究可能有助于为电子商务部门的企业制定一套指导方针,并最终提高其国际竞争力,例如通过指导产品和促销策略。原创性与价值:在文献综述的基础上,本章提出了一种新的电子商务中AR消费者接受度的研究模型,可以在未来的研究中进行验证。
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引用次数: 2
The adoption of Industry 4.0 solutions as a remedy against the pandemic crisis– the case of Polish companies 采用工业4.0解决方案作为应对流行病危机的补救措施——以波兰公司为例
Pub Date : 2021-06-22 DOI: 10.18559/978-83-8211-061-6/iii1
B. Jankowska, Ewa Mińska‐Struzik
Purpose: The authors aim to briefly present the adoption of Industry 4.0 technologies among Polish companies in the realm of the VUCA world. These solutions may work as measures that increase the resilience of companies against the Covid-19 crisis and support the recovery in “the new normal” reality. Design/methodology/approach: The paper combines literature studies with an empirical investigation in the form of computer-assisted telephone interviews conducted among 400 Polish manufacturing companies. Findings: Polish industrial manufacturing firms lag in implementing I4.0 technologies compared to their Western European counterparts. Research limitations/implications: The empirical part of the study was conducted among Polish companies. Similar studies among firms from other CEE countries will be necessary to conclude about this part of the world’s readiness to adopt 4.0 technologies. Practical implications: The pandemic era and increasing I4.0 adoption pose particular tasks for companies. They should revise their contractual arrangements with IT service providers and focus on data privacy and security topics, but also industry-specific regulations. Triggered by the Covid-19 crisis, these actions may contribute to developing companies’ comprehensive digital strategy in the “new normal” reality. Originality and value: The chapter contributes to the discussion on the readiness of companies and economies to adopt the Industry 4.0 technologies. It also provides the level of the adoption of these solutions in the context of a post-transition economy.
目的:作者旨在简要介绍波兰公司在VUCA领域采用工业4.0技术的情况。这些解决方案可以作为增强企业抵御新冠肺炎危机的能力,并在“新常态”现实中支持复苏的措施。设计/方法/方法:本文将文献研究与以计算机辅助电话访谈形式对400家波兰制造公司进行的实证调查相结合。研究发现:波兰工业制造企业在实施工业4.0技术方面落后于西欧同行。研究局限性/启示:研究的实证部分是在波兰公司中进行的。有必要对其他中东欧国家的公司进行类似的研究,以得出世界这一地区采用4.0技术的准备情况。实际影响:大流行时代和越来越多的工业4.0应用给公司带来了特殊的任务。他们应该修改与IT服务提供商的合同安排,关注数据隐私和安全主题,以及特定行业的法规。在新冠肺炎危机的推动下,这些行动可能有助于企业在“新常态”现实中制定全面的数字战略。原创性和价值:本章讨论了企业和经济体采用工业4.0技术的准备情况。它还提供了在转型后经济背景下采用这些解决办法的水平。
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引用次数: 1
Challenges for innovation cooperation in the biopharmaceutical industry during the Covid-19 pandemic 新冠肺炎大流行期间生物制药行业创新合作面临的挑战
Pub Date : 2021-06-22 DOI: 10.18559/978-83-8211-061-6/ii7
Łukasz Puślecki
Purpose: This chapter seeks to verify the development of new partnerships and R&D alliances in the biopharmaceutical industry during the Covid-19 pandemic, but also to present the related challenges for innovation cooperation. Design/methodology/approach: The main method applied in this research was scientific study, meaning that the study applied descriptive, comparative, documentation, and desk research methods, along with deductive and inductive forecasting. Findings: The text presents new partnerships undertaken by biopharma companies (in and outside the industry) in order to face the pandemic and to discover and deliver anew vaccine for SARS-CoV-2 to the market. Moreover, the chapter describes the research projects in the European Union focused on the Covid-19 pandemic defeating. Thanks to more flexible and open cooperation, companies will greatly support the possibility to defeat the Covid-19 pandemic faster. Practical Implications: We should consider that due to the current situation caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, the cooperation of companies and all entities in the biopharmaceutical R&D innovation ecosystem is even more challenging than before. Moreover, we should remember that the organizational fluidity of open innovation initiatives and multiparty relations increases the complexity of alliance management. The use of an open innovation model can significantly hasten the production process of new drugs and vaccines. Originality and value: Biopharma-university alliances can significantly increase the likelihood of creating better medical therapies for patients. Results of such cooperation enable a number of innovative projects, given the significant pressure on innovativeness and challenges caused by the pandemic. Using the latest IT technologies will allow physicians to even better monitor, diagnose, and care for patients with afocus on the patient-centered approach.
目的:本章旨在验证新冠肺炎大流行期间生物制药行业新伙伴关系和研发联盟的发展情况,并提出创新合作面临的相关挑战。设计/方法论/方法:本研究采用的主要方法是科学研究,即研究采用了描述性、比较性、文献研究性和案头研究性方法,以及演绎和归纳预测。研究结果:本文介绍了生物制药公司(行业内外)为应对大流行,发现并向市场提供新的SARS-CoV-2疫苗而开展的新伙伴关系。此外,本章还介绍了欧盟的研究项目,重点是战胜Covid-19大流行。通过更加灵活和开放的合作,企业将为更快战胜新冠肺炎疫情提供巨大支持。现实启示:我们应该考虑到,在当前新冠肺炎疫情的形势下,生物制药研发创新生态系统中企业和所有实体的合作比以往更具挑战性。此外,我们应该记住,开放式创新计划和多方关系的组织流动性增加了联盟管理的复杂性。采用开放式创新模式可以大大加快新药和疫苗的生产进程。原创性和价值:生物制药-大学联盟可以显著增加为患者创造更好的医疗疗法的可能性。鉴于这种流行病对创新造成的巨大压力和挑战,这种合作的成果使一些创新项目成为可能。使用最新的IT技术将使医生能够以患者为中心,更好地监测、诊断和护理患者。
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引用次数: 2
The impact of the crisis on the maintenance of sustainable development initiatives: A comparative analysis of local and international companies 危机对维持可持续发展倡议的影响:本地和国际公司的比较分析
Pub Date : 2021-06-22 DOI: 10.18559/978-83-8211-061-6/iii3
Łukasz Małys
Purpose: The aim of the chapter is to compare the declarations of local and international companies regarding the maintenance of sustainable development initiatives during acrisis. Design/methodology/approach: The article presents the results of a survey conducted in September 2020 on a sample of 500 enterprises located in Poland. Respondents were asked to declare if they will maintain or abandon sustainable development initiatives in a crisis situation. The examples presented a pandemic similar to the one caused by Covid-19, an economic crisis, or a significant decrease in company revenues. Findings: The research showed that the largest group of companies in acrisis situation will completely abandon their initiatives in the field of sustainable development. Another group will give up those initiatives that generate the highest cost. There are some small differences in responses of local and international companies. Companies with foreign entities in the ownership structure seems less likely to give up all initiatives in the field of sustainable development. International companies more often than local companies declare that they do not know which initiatives they will abandon and which will they keep. Research limitations/implications: Factors other than international involvement (e.g. company size, strategic approach to sustainable development) may have a decisive impact on decisions regarding the maintenance of sustainable development initiatives in acrisis. Originality and value: The chapter illustrates the approach to sustainable development by companies classified into various categories: local and international.
目的:本章的目的是比较本地和国际公司关于在危机期间维持可持续发展倡议的声明。设计/方法/方法:本文介绍了2020年9月对位于波兰的500家企业样本进行的调查结果。受访者被要求声明他们在危机情况下是否会维持或放弃可持续发展倡议。这些例子包括类似于新冠疫情的大流行、经济危机或公司收入大幅下降。研究发现:最大的企业群体在危机情况下会完全放弃其在可持续发展领域的主动权。另一组人将放弃那些产生最高成本的计划。国内企业和国际企业的反应略有不同。在所有权结构中有外国实体的公司似乎不太可能放弃可持续发展领域的所有主动行动。国际公司比本地公司更经常宣称,它们不知道将放弃哪些计划,保留哪些计划。研究局限/影响:国际参与以外的因素(例如公司规模、可持续发展的战略方针)可能对危机中维持可持续发展倡议的决策产生决定性影响。原创性和价值:本章阐述了按本地和国际公司分类的可持续发展方法。
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引用次数: 1
Donation crowdfunding as a source of relief for small businesses 捐赠众筹作为小企业的救济来源
Pub Date : 2021-06-22 DOI: 10.18559/978-83-8211-061-6/iii6
Marcin Wieczerzycki
Purpose: The purpose of this chapter is to examine advantages and limitations of donation crowdfunding as away of providing relief for small businesses and assessing its potential development in that field in the post-pandemic future. Design/methodology/approach: The chapter is based on critical literature analysis, supported by empirical examples for illustrative purposes. Findings: Donation crowdfunding can be aviable way of providing relief to small companies during the times of crisis, by positioning companies as beneficiaries of charitable endeavors carried out by consumers. Practical implications: Companies ability to trigger altruistic responses in their consumers is an important information in times of crises. Moreover, the information serves as an additional argument for building meaningful relationships with consumers and establishing locally embedded or virtual communities, which make securing relief through donation crowdfunding easier. Originality and value: The subject of using donation crowdfunding by companies to secure relief funds has seen very limited elaboration in the current literature.
目的:本章的目的是研究捐赠众筹作为向小企业提供救济的一种方式的优点和局限性,并评估其在大流行后未来在该领域的发展潜力。设计/方法论/方法:本章以批判性文献分析为基础,并辅以实证例子进行说明。研究发现:通过将企业定位为消费者慈善活动的受益者,捐赠众筹可以在危机时期为小企业提供救济。实际意义:公司在危机时期激发消费者利他反应的能力是一个重要的信息。此外,这些信息还可以作为与消费者建立有意义的关系和建立本地嵌入式或虚拟社区的额外论据,这使得通过捐赠众筹获得救济变得更加容易。原创性和价值:目前的文献对企业利用捐赠众筹获得救灾资金这一主题的阐述非常有限。
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引用次数: 1
International portfolio diversification during the Covid-19 onset: A study of correlations among CEE post-transition and developed countries 新冠疫情期间国际投资组合多元化:中东欧转型后国家与发达国家相关性研究
Pub Date : 2021-06-22 DOI: 10.18559/978-83-8211-061-6/i6
P. Śliwiński
Purpose: The chapter examines the hypothesis that during the Covid-19 onset, the higher positive correlations between stock exchange indices persist, preventing the use of international diversification to reduce the volatility of global portfolio. Design/methodology/approach: The study focuses on CEE post-transition countries and their main stock exchange indices’ correlations with developed markets stock exchange indices. The data cover the period starting from January 8, 2004, until the end of October, 2020. The bivariate relationship between stock indices and VIX was measured by the Pearson coefficient of correlation. Findings: The findings of correlations estimation in three periods (long-term, Covid-19 on-set, and recovery) indicate that except for a period of large volatility measured by the VIX index lower relationships between developed and emerging stock markets persist. However, the results of the study concerning the shaping of correlation between the stock indices and the global risk shows a significant negative relationship between them, approaching very high levels close to 1 during the Covid-19 onset. All the CEE stock exchanges – even those low correlated in the longer term – behaved very similarly during the stock exchange crunch with its epicenter in March 2020. Practical implications: The answer to the research questions concerning the shaping of correlations on international markets is important for the portfolio theory itself in its international aspect, but also from the viewpoint of its applicability in practice. Huge market synchronization in terms of comovements in stock indices is troubling. It significantly reduces or even eliminates the benefits of international diversification during market crashes.
目的:本章检验了以下假设:在Covid-19爆发期间,证券交易所指数之间的高正相关性持续存在,阻止了使用国际多元化来降低全球投资组合的波动性。设计/方法/方法:研究重点是中东欧转型后国家及其主要股票交易所指数与发达市场股票交易所指数的相关性。数据覆盖时间从2004年1月8日至2020年10月底。用Pearson相关系数来衡量股指与VIX之间的二元关系。研究结果:三个时期(长期、新冠疫情爆发和复苏)的相关性估计结果表明,除了VIX指数衡量的大波动时期外,发达市场与新兴市场之间的较低关系持续存在。然而,关于股票指数与全球风险之间相关性形成的研究结果显示,它们之间存在显著的负相关关系,在新冠肺炎发病期间接近1的非常高水平。所有中东欧证券交易所——即使是那些长期相关性较低的交易所——在2020年3月的证券交易所危机期间的表现非常相似。实践意义:回答有关国际市场相关性形成的研究问题不仅对投资组合理论本身的国际方面很重要,而且对其在实践中的适用性也很重要。股市指数波动方面的巨大市场同步令人不安。它大大减少甚至消除了市场崩溃期间国际多元化的好处。
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引用次数: 2
Challenges in currency derivatives management in the OTC market in Poland during the Covid-19 pandemic 2019冠状病毒病大流行期间波兰场外交易市场外汇衍生品管理面临的挑战
Pub Date : 2021-06-22 DOI: 10.18559/978-83-8211-061-6/iii5
Piotr Wybieralski
Purpose: The aim of the chapter is to analyze the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and market volatility increase on risk management in the OTC derivatives market in Poland. Design/methodology/approach: The chapter describes the legal background of derivatives trading with non-financial enterprises, then identifies the main risks, and discusses possible actions of market participants. In this regard, the study conducts volatility analysis based on selected market data. Findings: Due to volatility increase and the resulting negative valuation of non-matured currency derivatives by Polish exporters, margin call clauses were triggered, entailing the need to post additional collateral or prematurely close contracts. The described situation is particularly difficult when the pre-settlement limit is fully utilized on deal date, usually in the case of long-lasting large open exposures in non-flexible transactions. Research implications: To determine market risk, studies often apply the VaR approach. Inthis way, the specific amount of risk is analyzed on adaily basis and used by banks both to determine the maximum amount of the contract and to control pre-settlement risk. Apart from many advantages of the VaR approach, there are some drawbacks, especially related to volatility estimation, which usually relies on historical market fluctuations. It may cause that the risk will not be properly valued under crisis conditions. In such situations, supplementary methods should be also implemented (stresstests). Practical implications: Under high market volatility, preventive actions should be prepared in advance, including treasury limit increase, additional funds for collaterals, or contracts modification (flexible products should be considered).Originality and value: The study covers a challenge that banks face, which is rarely described in professional literature but very serious for bank management. Under normal market conditions, if the margin call clause appears and no additional collateral is posted, the transaction should be closed to limit the counterparty’s loss. However, this type of action during the pandemic may impose the risk of force majeure. From the company perspective, using such instruments threatens their early settlement and the need to finance closeout amount.
目的:本章的目的是分析Covid-19大流行和市场波动性增加对波兰场外衍生品市场风险管理的影响。设计/方法/途径:本章描述了与非金融企业进行衍生品交易的法律背景,然后确定了主要风险,并讨论了市场参与者可能采取的行动。为此,本研究选取市场数据进行波动性分析。研究结果:由于波动性增加以及波兰出口商对未到期货币衍生品的负估值,触发了追加保证金条款,导致需要提供额外抵押品或过早交割合约。当在交易日期充分利用预结算限额时,通常是在非灵活交易中长期大额敞口的情况下,所描述的情况尤其困难。研究启示:为了确定市场风险,研究通常采用VaR方法。这样,银行就可以根据每天的具体风险量来确定合同的最大金额,并控制预结算风险。除了VaR方法的许多优点之外,它也有一些缺点,特别是在波动率估计方面,它通常依赖于历史市场波动。这可能导致在危机条件下风险无法得到适当的评估。在这种情况下,还应实施补充方法(压力测试)。实际影响:在市场波动较大的情况下,应提前做好预防措施,包括提高国库限额、增加抵押品资金或修改合同(应考虑灵活产品)。原创性和价值:本研究涵盖了银行面临的挑战,这一挑战在专业文献中很少被描述,但对银行管理来说是非常严重的。在正常的市场条件下,如果追加保证金条款出现,并且没有追加抵押品,交易就应该结束,以限制交易对手的损失。然而,在大流行期间采取这类行动可能会带来不可抗力的风险。从公司的角度来看,使用这些工具会威胁到他们的早期结算和融资关闭金额的需要。
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引用次数: 2
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Towards the „new normal” after COVID-19 – a post-transition economy perspective
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