Christine Taylor, Erik Vargo, Emily Bromberg, Tyler Manderfield
The future vision for traffic flow management is one that leverages advanced automation to assist human decision-makers in the identification of potential constraints and the development of resolution strategies. What makes this problem so challenging is the inherent uncertainty associated with forecasting these constraints, leaving human decision-makers reliant on experience to devise effective traffic management initiatives to mitigate demand in excess of resource capacity. This paper proposes to employ artificial intelligence-based methods to recommend traffic management initiatives under forecast uncertainty and to do so in a real-time planning context. The proposed algorithm consists of 1) a policy network that is generated offline using an Expert Iteration algorithm, 2) a statistical model that updates the likelihood of constraint futures based on observations, and 3) a Monte Carlo tree search algorithm that explores possible combinations of traffic management initiatives to identify the recommended actions for the current decision. The skill introduced by each of the algorithmic components is assessed for a case study focused on managing arrivals into the Atlanta Hartsfield–Jackson International Airport over 92 validation days.
交通流量管理的未来愿景是利用先进的自动化技术来帮助人类决策者识别潜在的限制因素并制定解决策略。这个问题之所以如此具有挑战性，是因为预测这些限制因素所固有的不确定性，使得人类决策者依靠经验来设计有效的交通管理举措，以缓解资源容量过剩的需求。本文建议采用基于人工智能的方法，在预测不确定性的情况下推荐交通管理举措，并在实时规划环境中这样做。提出的算法包括:1)使用专家迭代算法离线生成的策略网络;2)基于观察更新约束未来可能性的统计模型;3)探索交通管理举措可能组合的蒙特卡罗树搜索算法，以确定当前决策的建议行动。每个算法组件所引入的技能将在一个案例研究中进行评估，该案例研究的重点是管理亚特兰大哈茨菲尔德-杰克逊国际机场(Atlanta Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport)在92个验证日内的抵港旅客。
{"title":"Designing Traffic Management Strategies Using Reinforcement Learning Techniques","authors":"Christine Taylor, Erik Vargo, Emily Bromberg, Tyler Manderfield","doi":"10.2514/1.d0339","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2514/1.d0339","url":null,"abstract":"The future vision for traffic flow management is one that leverages advanced automation to assist human decision-makers in the identification of potential constraints and the development of resolution strategies. What makes this problem so challenging is the inherent uncertainty associated with forecasting these constraints, leaving human decision-makers reliant on experience to devise effective traffic management initiatives to mitigate demand in excess of resource capacity. This paper proposes to employ artificial intelligence-based methods to recommend traffic management initiatives under forecast uncertainty and to do so in a real-time planning context. The proposed algorithm consists of 1) a policy network that is generated offline using an Expert Iteration algorithm, 2) a statistical model that updates the likelihood of constraint futures based on observations, and 3) a Monte Carlo tree search algorithm that explores possible combinations of traffic management initiatives to identify the recommended actions for the current decision. The skill introduced by each of the algorithmic components is assessed for a case study focused on managing arrivals into the Atlanta Hartsfield–Jackson International Airport over 92 validation days.","PeriodicalId":36984,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transportation","volume":"43 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136161164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
William J. Penhallegon, Bridget A. Lewis, Randall S. Bone, H. Peter Stassen, Mike Germain
Interval management (IM) uses Automatic Dependent Surveillance–Broadcast to provide greater air traffic system throughput and efficiency by improving inter-aircraft spacing precision. The IM Dependent Staggered Approach (DSA) application enables aircraft within a pair to achieve a spacing objective when arriving to parallel, dependently scheduled runways. These operations may require lengthier or more complex IM clearance communications that, coupled with manual entry of ownship route information and forecast winds, can result in a more challenging setup task than has been previously examined. An experiment with 16 pilots was conducted to examine the flight crew acceptability, feasibility, and technical assumptions related to conducting IM DSA operations in a metering environment with voice communications. Results show flight crew errors during entry of the clearance elements into the Cockpit Display of Traffic Information traffic display, especially with a long and highly complex IM clearance. The manual entry of ownship route and forecast wind information also appeared to increase the complexity of the entry task and the potential for errors. Recommendations are made to the Federal Aviation Administration and equipment manufacturers regarding IM communications and the design of related flight deck displays to avoid entry errors and, when they occur, indicate the source to pilots.
{"title":"Flight Deck Simulation of Complex Clearance Information Entry During Relative Spacing Arrival Operations","authors":"William J. Penhallegon, Bridget A. Lewis, Randall S. Bone, H. Peter Stassen, Mike Germain","doi":"10.2514/1.d0342","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2514/1.d0342","url":null,"abstract":"Interval management (IM) uses Automatic Dependent Surveillance–Broadcast to provide greater air traffic system throughput and efficiency by improving inter-aircraft spacing precision. The IM Dependent Staggered Approach (DSA) application enables aircraft within a pair to achieve a spacing objective when arriving to parallel, dependently scheduled runways. These operations may require lengthier or more complex IM clearance communications that, coupled with manual entry of ownship route information and forecast winds, can result in a more challenging setup task than has been previously examined. An experiment with 16 pilots was conducted to examine the flight crew acceptability, feasibility, and technical assumptions related to conducting IM DSA operations in a metering environment with voice communications. Results show flight crew errors during entry of the clearance elements into the Cockpit Display of Traffic Information traffic display, especially with a long and highly complex IM clearance. The manual entry of ownship route and forecast wind information also appeared to increase the complexity of the entry task and the potential for errors. Recommendations are made to the Federal Aviation Administration and equipment manufacturers regarding IM communications and the design of related flight deck displays to avoid entry errors and, when they occur, indicate the source to pilots.","PeriodicalId":36984,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transportation","volume":"97 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135149606","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Richard M. Unkelbach, T. Dautermann, Carlos Gonzaga-López, M. Uijt de Haag
The approach to landing on runway 33 of Salzburg Airport in Austria is severely impacted by mountainous terrain on the extended runway centerline. This renders all straight-in approaches, except those based on required navigation performance (RNP) with authorization required (AR), impossible. Only the high navigation accuracy available under RNP-AR minimizes the required obstacle protection areas sufficiently to not be penetrated by the terrain. The combination of RNP-AR and localizer performance with vertical guidance makes it further possible to use a more precise angular guidance for the final approach. In Salzburg, this enables a reduction of the decision height from 368 to 218 ft above aerodrome level because the critical terrain and obstacles now fall outside of the protection areas. A level D full flight simulator test with an Airbus A350 showed that advanced RNP 0.1 coding is sufficient to achieve RNP 0.1 performance under all permitted environmental conditions.
{"title":"Design and Testing of a Vertically Guided High-Precision Approach into Salzburg Airport","authors":"Richard M. Unkelbach, T. Dautermann, Carlos Gonzaga-López, M. Uijt de Haag","doi":"10.2514/1.d0363","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2514/1.d0363","url":null,"abstract":"The approach to landing on runway 33 of Salzburg Airport in Austria is severely impacted by mountainous terrain on the extended runway centerline. This renders all straight-in approaches, except those based on required navigation performance (RNP) with authorization required (AR), impossible. Only the high navigation accuracy available under RNP-AR minimizes the required obstacle protection areas sufficiently to not be penetrated by the terrain. The combination of RNP-AR and localizer performance with vertical guidance makes it further possible to use a more precise angular guidance for the final approach. In Salzburg, this enables a reduction of the decision height from 368 to 218 ft above aerodrome level because the critical terrain and obstacles now fall outside of the protection areas. A level D full flight simulator test with an Airbus A350 showed that advanced RNP 0.1 coding is sufficient to achieve RNP 0.1 performance under all permitted environmental conditions.","PeriodicalId":36984,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transportation","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44512041","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
P. Banerjee, Matteo Corbetta, K. Jarvis, Kyle M. Smalling, A. Turner
Incorporating unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) into the United States National Airspace System would demand enhanced airspace safety technologies for the safety of the UAVs, people, and property on the ground. One of the safety-critical factors to consider is the risk of a UAV deviating from its planned trajectory, which may result in loss of separation between other vehicles or obstacles or may cause early depletion of battery power. In this paper, we studied the effect of wind on UAV trajectory deviation by incorporating wind velocity as a drag component in a six-degrees-of-freedom trajectory simulation comprising a rotorcraft lumped-mass model. Both steady-state wind and wind turbulence effects were investigated. We validated our approach using real flight data from UAV experiments conducted at NASA Langley Research Center. The proposed approach would enable risk-informed decision making by timely mitigation of current and future collision events in an uncertain and dynamic environment.
{"title":"Probability of Trajectory Deviation of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle in Presence of Wind","authors":"P. Banerjee, Matteo Corbetta, K. Jarvis, Kyle M. Smalling, A. Turner","doi":"10.2514/1.d0337","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2514/1.d0337","url":null,"abstract":"Incorporating unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) into the United States National Airspace System would demand enhanced airspace safety technologies for the safety of the UAVs, people, and property on the ground. One of the safety-critical factors to consider is the risk of a UAV deviating from its planned trajectory, which may result in loss of separation between other vehicles or obstacles or may cause early depletion of battery power. In this paper, we studied the effect of wind on UAV trajectory deviation by incorporating wind velocity as a drag component in a six-degrees-of-freedom trajectory simulation comprising a rotorcraft lumped-mass model. Both steady-state wind and wind turbulence effects were investigated. We validated our approach using real flight data from UAV experiments conducted at NASA Langley Research Center. The proposed approach would enable risk-informed decision making by timely mitigation of current and future collision events in an uncertain and dynamic environment.","PeriodicalId":36984,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transportation","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45240240","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Introduction to the Virtual Collection of Best Papers from Air Traffic Management Research and Development Seminar 2021","authors":"","doi":"10.2514/1.d0388","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2514/1.d0388","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":36984,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transportation","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49192973","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Philippe Meister, Kexin Wang, M. Dorneich, E. Winer, L. Brown, G. Whitehurst
Current aviation weather training for novice pilots provides limited opportunities to practice correlating information in weather-related situations to develop cognitive skills. Current training materials are largely print based: restricted to text and two-dimensional images. However, interactive print training materials can include interactive augmented reality (AR) weather activities overlaid on text and images. This study compared learner-centered interactive print to print-only training. The participants completed both knowledge-based and scenario-based learning activities. The interactive print training activities significantly improved motivation to learn and engagement with the activities. There was no difference between the two groups when rating the perceived effectiveness. Both training groups improved factual knowledge; however, there was no difference between the two training groups. The participants in the interactive print training group performed significantly better in the knowledge-based activities but worse in the scenario-based activities as compared to the print training group. In the AR visual environment, participants may have relied on visual cues rather than the knowledge learned in the text. The evaluation suggests that AR-enhanced training can improve factual knowledge, positively impact motivation and engagement, and provide learning opportunities in a safe environment.
{"title":"Evaluation of Augmented Reality Interactive Print for General Aviation Weather Training","authors":"Philippe Meister, Kexin Wang, M. Dorneich, E. Winer, L. Brown, G. Whitehurst","doi":"10.2514/1.d0364","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2514/1.d0364","url":null,"abstract":"Current aviation weather training for novice pilots provides limited opportunities to practice correlating information in weather-related situations to develop cognitive skills. Current training materials are largely print based: restricted to text and two-dimensional images. However, interactive print training materials can include interactive augmented reality (AR) weather activities overlaid on text and images. This study compared learner-centered interactive print to print-only training. The participants completed both knowledge-based and scenario-based learning activities. The interactive print training activities significantly improved motivation to learn and engagement with the activities. There was no difference between the two groups when rating the perceived effectiveness. Both training groups improved factual knowledge; however, there was no difference between the two training groups. The participants in the interactive print training group performed significantly better in the knowledge-based activities but worse in the scenario-based activities as compared to the print training group. In the AR visual environment, participants may have relied on visual cues rather than the knowledge learned in the text. The evaluation suggests that AR-enhanced training can improve factual knowledge, positively impact motivation and engagement, and provide learning opportunities in a safe environment.","PeriodicalId":36984,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transportation","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43483231","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
When new entrants invade an overlooked segment of the market, they can overtake established incumbents by providing innovative technologies or solutions in a small way. These disruptive innovations can grow to be highly lucrative markets in their own right (Bower, J. L., and Clayton, M. C., “Disruptive Technologies: Catching the Wave,” Harvard Business Review, Vol. 73, No. 1, 1995, pp. 43–53). One such disruptive innovation is advanced air mobility (AAM), which represents the diversity of operations using advanced vehicles with varying levels of autonomy and technologies. These operations will present unique challenges to integration in the National Airspace System. The goal of this research was to conduct a systematic review of AAM-related human factor publications, categorize human factor research areas, delineate issues, and identify gaps where future research can be focused. Findings in the current study identified qualifications, roles, and responsibilities where future research would be crucial to inform policy and standardization of regulations.
{"title":"Advanced Air Mobility: Systematic Review of Human Factors’ Scientific Publications and Policy","authors":"L. Vempati, V. Gawron, S. Winter","doi":"10.2514/1.d0366","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2514/1.d0366","url":null,"abstract":"When new entrants invade an overlooked segment of the market, they can overtake established incumbents by providing innovative technologies or solutions in a small way. These disruptive innovations can grow to be highly lucrative markets in their own right (Bower, J. L., and Clayton, M. C., “Disruptive Technologies: Catching the Wave,” Harvard Business Review, Vol. 73, No. 1, 1995, pp. 43–53). One such disruptive innovation is advanced air mobility (AAM), which represents the diversity of operations using advanced vehicles with varying levels of autonomy and technologies. These operations will present unique challenges to integration in the National Airspace System. The goal of this research was to conduct a systematic review of AAM-related human factor publications, categorize human factor research areas, delineate issues, and identify gaps where future research can be focused. Findings in the current study identified qualifications, roles, and responsibilities where future research would be crucial to inform policy and standardization of regulations.","PeriodicalId":36984,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transportation","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45321041","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The Unites States commercial unmanned aerial system (UAS) market was valued at $99.6 million in 2020 and is projected to reach $3.7 billion by 2030. Applications for these commercial UAS range from risk mitigation and surveillance to package delivery. Coupled with these emerging applications are the unique factors that arise with a commercial UAS’s compact size and low-altitude flights among the civilian populace. In this work, a value model was created to attempt to aid in determining the infringement of a UAS operation configuration on a civilian environment. Value functions were developed in an additive model that measures infringement (a UAS’s encroachment or trespass on a right or privilege of a civilian) based on these attributes. The resulting value model was tested by running 100,000 random simulations. Analysis of the simulation results and sensitivity analysis of the model showed that fleet size, proximity, duration of the operation within a certain proximity, and total operation duration were the attributes that drove a UAS operation’s infringement on an environment. A use case of an Amazon delivery application was then examined. This is a realistic scenario simulated to study if duration of an operation and time near a structure are kept to a minimum, the infringement of an operation remained low. This study provides initial determination of how infringement of UAS can be quantified and what infringement values may look like for different operational scenarios.
{"title":"Modeling Public Concerns for Unmanned Aerial System Operations in the National Airspace System","authors":"R. Philpott, E. Winer","doi":"10.2514/1.d0346","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2514/1.d0346","url":null,"abstract":"The Unites States commercial unmanned aerial system (UAS) market was valued at $99.6 million in 2020 and is projected to reach $3.7 billion by 2030. Applications for these commercial UAS range from risk mitigation and surveillance to package delivery. Coupled with these emerging applications are the unique factors that arise with a commercial UAS’s compact size and low-altitude flights among the civilian populace. In this work, a value model was created to attempt to aid in determining the infringement of a UAS operation configuration on a civilian environment. Value functions were developed in an additive model that measures infringement (a UAS’s encroachment or trespass on a right or privilege of a civilian) based on these attributes. The resulting value model was tested by running 100,000 random simulations. Analysis of the simulation results and sensitivity analysis of the model showed that fleet size, proximity, duration of the operation within a certain proximity, and total operation duration were the attributes that drove a UAS operation’s infringement on an environment. A use case of an Amazon delivery application was then examined. This is a realistic scenario simulated to study if duration of an operation and time near a structure are kept to a minimum, the infringement of an operation remained low. This study provides initial determination of how infringement of UAS can be quantified and what infringement values may look like for different operational scenarios.","PeriodicalId":36984,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transportation","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49258899","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
With the increased use of small unmanned aircraft systems, the collision risk between manned aircraft and small unmanned aircraft systems is increasing. One promising solution to avoid such risks is preflight information sharing and conflict resolution between manned aircraft and small unmanned aircraft systems. However, detailed flight plan information is often not available for aircraft operating under visual flight rules. The authors developed flight estimation methods for a visual flight rules helicopter flight by using the information extracted from the visual flight rules flight plan, such as the origin/destination points, the estimated flight time, and the names of the points on the route. Furthermore, one method estimates the positional coordinate of points on the route by using the track data of the previous flights. The proposed methods were evaluated by comparing the results with the actual track, and they are discussed from the viewpoints of information quality and implementation effort. Potential implementation for future operational environment in a low-altitude airspace was investigated based on the evaluation results. Finally, recommendations are provided for preflight information sharing and conflict resolution between visual flight rules aircraft and small unmanned aircraft systems.
{"title":"Analysis of Flight Plans for Visual Flight Rules Toward Preflight Information Sharing","authors":"D. Toratani, H. Hirabayashi","doi":"10.2514/1.d0288","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2514/1.d0288","url":null,"abstract":"With the increased use of small unmanned aircraft systems, the collision risk between manned aircraft and small unmanned aircraft systems is increasing. One promising solution to avoid such risks is preflight information sharing and conflict resolution between manned aircraft and small unmanned aircraft systems. However, detailed flight plan information is often not available for aircraft operating under visual flight rules. The authors developed flight estimation methods for a visual flight rules helicopter flight by using the information extracted from the visual flight rules flight plan, such as the origin/destination points, the estimated flight time, and the names of the points on the route. Furthermore, one method estimates the positional coordinate of points on the route by using the track data of the previous flights. The proposed methods were evaluated by comparing the results with the actual track, and they are discussed from the viewpoints of information quality and implementation effort. Potential implementation for future operational environment in a low-altitude airspace was investigated based on the evaluation results. Finally, recommendations are provided for preflight information sharing and conflict resolution between visual flight rules aircraft and small unmanned aircraft systems.","PeriodicalId":36984,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transportation","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43996887","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study estimates the probability of extreme fatalities from civil airplane accidents in the United States since the early 1980s. To this end, extreme civil airplane accidents were modeled using extreme value statistics, allowing for changes in the distribution due to other factors. The analysis revealed that an extreme aircraft accident causes 18 to 20 fatalities every two years with costs between 111.6 and 124 million U.S. dollars (USD); whereas accidents with (at least) between 70 and 100 fatalities will occur every 20 years, costing between 424 and 620 million USD. The findings also indicate that higher volumes of air traffic increase the return levels of severe aviation accidents, whereas higher ticket prices reduce the likelihood of these. The findings emphasize the serious consequences of airplane accidents with respect to the number of fatalities but also how these depend on market conditions.
{"title":"Predicting the Number of Fatalities in Extreme Civil Aviation Accidents","authors":"Joel Huesler, E. Strobl","doi":"10.2514/1.d0357","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2514/1.d0357","url":null,"abstract":"This study estimates the probability of extreme fatalities from civil airplane accidents in the United States since the early 1980s. To this end, extreme civil airplane accidents were modeled using extreme value statistics, allowing for changes in the distribution due to other factors. The analysis revealed that an extreme aircraft accident causes 18 to 20 fatalities every two years with costs between 111.6 and 124 million U.S. dollars (USD); whereas accidents with (at least) between 70 and 100 fatalities will occur every 20 years, costing between 424 and 620 million USD. The findings also indicate that higher volumes of air traffic increase the return levels of severe aviation accidents, whereas higher ticket prices reduce the likelihood of these. The findings emphasize the serious consequences of airplane accidents with respect to the number of fatalities but also how these depend on market conditions.","PeriodicalId":36984,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transportation","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46646918","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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