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Applicability of Portfolio Theory in Nepali Stock Market 投资组合理论在尼泊尔股票市场的适用性
Pub Date : 2016-05-06 DOI: 10.3126/nrber.v28i1.52553
S. Adhikari, P. Jha
In the rapidly growing stock market of Nepal, this study tests the applicability of the portfolio creation model and attempts to aware investors about the potential portfolio alternatives they can make to achieve their peculiar risk-return need, through a robust optimization model. A portfolio model using Markowitz mean-variance method is applied to calculate the optimal portfolio and portfolios fitting the investor specific needs, from a sample of 20 Group “A” listed companies on NEPSE. The monthly stock prices between April 2010 and December 2014 of sample companies are used as training data. And, the applicability of the model is tested based on their prices on April 2015. From the analysis it is concluded that such mean-variance optimization is applicable in Nepal. Furthermore, most of the stocks, even from different sectors, are highly correlated to each other illustrating the lack of diversification opportunity at NEPSE. Additionally, the significantly high volatility even at global minimum variance level illustrated the risky nature of business environment in the country. There is an opportunity for high return, but the investor’s willingness to gain this is tested through the high magnitude of minimum risk. These findings call for the policy makers’ immediate attention in creating a favorable environment to bring the real sector companies in the public trading realm and enhancing the commodities and derivatives market in the country, thereby helping stimulate the investment environment in Nepal.
在快速增长的尼泊尔股票市场中,本研究检验了投资组合创建模型的适用性,并试图通过稳健的优化模型来了解投资者可以做出的潜在投资组合替代方案,以实现其特殊的风险回报需求。本文以20家NEPSE A类上市公司为样本,采用Markowitz均值方差法建立投资组合模型,计算最优投资组合和符合投资者特定需求的投资组合。样本公司2010年4月至2014年12月的月度股价作为训练数据。并以2015年4月的价格为基准,对模型的适用性进行了检验。分析表明,这种均方差优化方法在尼泊尔是适用的。此外,大多数股票,即使来自不同行业,彼此高度相关,说明NEPSE缺乏多样化的机会。此外,即使在全球最小方差水平上,显著的高波动性也说明了该国商业环境的风险性。这是一个获得高回报的机会,但投资者获得高回报的意愿要通过最低风险的高度来检验。这些发现呼吁政策制定者立即关注创造一个有利的环境,将实体部门公司带入公共贸易领域,并加强该国的商品和衍生品市场,从而有助于刺激尼泊尔的投资环境。
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引用次数: 0
Effect of Credit Risk on the Performance of Nepalese Commercial Banks 信用风险对尼泊尔商业银行绩效的影响
Pub Date : 2016-05-06 DOI: 10.3126/nrber.v28i1.52552
Yuga Raj Bhattarai
This study has examined the effect of credit risk on performance of Nepalese commercial banks. The descriptive and causal comparative research designs have been adopted for the study. The pooled data of 14 commercial banks for the period 2010 to 2015 have been analyzed using regression model. The regression results revealed that 'non-performing loan ratio' has negative effect on bank performance whereas 'cost per loan assets' has positive effect on bank performance. In addition to credit risk indicators, bank size has positive effect on bank performance. Capital adequacy ratio and cash reserve are not considered as the influencing variables on bank performance. This study concludes that there is significant relationship between bank performance and credit risk indicators.
本研究考察了信用风险对尼泊尔商业银行绩效的影响。本研究采用了描述性和因果性的比较研究设计。采用回归模型对14家商业银行2010 - 2015年的汇总数据进行分析。回归结果显示,“不良贷款率”对银行绩效有负向影响,而“每笔贷款资产成本”对银行绩效有正向影响。除了信用风险指标外,银行规模对银行绩效也有正向影响。资本充足率和现金储备不作为影响银行绩效的变量。本研究得出银行绩效与信用风险指标之间存在显著关系的结论。
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引用次数: 53
Poverty Dynamics in Nepal between 2004 and 2011: An Analysis of Hybrid Dataset 2004 - 2011年尼泊尔贫困动态:混合数据集分析
Pub Date : 2016-05-06 DOI: 10.3126/nrber.v28i1.52550
S. Adhikari
Poverty trends describe changes in poverty incidence over time; however, this can mask poverty dynamics. Poverty dynamics discusses the length of time experiencing poverty and explains about movements into and out of poverty. Evidence on poverty dynamics is important for policy makers to design appropriate anti-poverty policies. Panel data is central to obtaining a better understanding of poverty dynamics. Due to the absence of panel data, the paper constructs hybrid dataset using two rounds of cross sectional surveys in 2003/04 and 2010/11 in Nepal to assess the poverty dynamics. Incidence of poverty estimated from hybrid dataset may not be directly comparable with the estimation of poverty through conventional approach. The results indicate that chronic poverty is almost 21 percent for 2003/04 and 2010/11. Movements into and out of poverty, non- poor to poor and poor to non-poor, are 6 percent and 14 percent respectively. Almost 60 percent people are in non-poor category in both periods. Chronic poverty exists in all regions, marginalized ethnic and Dalit (occupational caste) groups. Different anti-poverty policies are required to address chronic or transitory poverty. The policies or opportunities such as increasing credit facilities, increasing access to services, remittances, or social safety net programmes that can stabilize short-term income fluctuations may be more appropriate to address transitory poverty. In contrast, the policies that are related to structural or long-term interventions such as development of basic infrastructure, increasing of social and political inclusion, redistribution of assets, increasing rates of capital accumulation among others are required to address chronic poverty.
贫困趋势描述了贫困发生率随时间的变化;然而,这可能掩盖了贫困的动态。贫困动力学讨论了经历贫困的时间长度,并解释了进入和摆脱贫困的运动。关于贫困动态的证据对于决策者设计适当的反贫困政策非常重要。小组数据对于更好地了解贫困动态至关重要。由于缺乏面板数据,本文利用2003/04年和2010/11年在尼泊尔进行的两轮横断面调查构建了混合数据集,以评估贫困动态。从混合数据集估计的贫困发生率可能无法与通过传统方法估计的贫困发生率直接比较。结果表明,2003/04年度和2010/11年度的长期贫困率接近21%。从贫困到贫困、从贫困到贫困、从贫困到非贫困的流动比例分别为6%和14%。在这两个时期,近60%的人都属于非贫困阶层。所有地区、边缘化的民族和达利特(职业种姓)群体都存在长期贫困。需要采取不同的扶贫政策来解决长期或暂时的贫困问题。增加信贷设施、增加获得服务的机会、汇款或社会安全网方案等能够稳定短期收入波动的政策或机会,可能更适合解决暂时性贫困问题。相反,与结构性或长期干预有关的政策,如发展基础设施、增加社会和政治包容、资产再分配、提高资本积累率等,是解决长期贫困问题的必要手段。
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引用次数: 1
Macroeconomic Impact of International Reserves: Empirical Evidence from South Asia 国际储备的宏观经济影响:来自南亚的经验证据
Pub Date : 2016-03-01 DOI: 10.3126/nrber.v28i1.52538
Prakash Shrestha
In recent years, many emerging countries have been accumulating substantial amount of international reserves by outpacing traditional benchmark in response to a series of financial crises in the world. In this context, this paper constructs a dynamic macro model with new monetary policy rule to examine the implications of international reserve accumulation for macroeconomic outcomes such as economic growth and inflation. Such a macro model is empirically examined in the data of South Asian countries, namely Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka by using Panel VAR method for the period of 1990-2014. The empirical results show that increase in international reserves tends to cause higher economic growth in these countries but without significant impact on inflation. This implies that these countries can move further utilizing the accumulated international reserves productively which will enhance economic growth and maintain internal and external balances.
近年来,许多新兴国家为应对全球一系列金融危机,以超过传统基准的速度积累了大量的国际储备。在此背景下,本文构建了一个包含新货币政策规则的动态宏观模型,考察国际储备积累对经济增长和通货膨胀等宏观经济结果的影响。采用Panel VAR方法对1990-2014年南亚国家孟加拉国、印度、尼泊尔、巴基斯坦和斯里兰卡的数据进行实证检验。实证结果表明,国际储备的增加往往会使这些国家的经济增长更快,但对通货膨胀没有显著影响。这意味着这些国家可以进一步采取行动,有效地利用积累的国际储备,从而促进经济增长和维持内部和外部平衡。
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引用次数: 10
Nepal's Fiscal Federalism Model in the New Constitution: Agenda for Amendments 尼泊尔新宪法中的财政联邦制模式:修订议程
Pub Date : 2015-11-24 DOI: 10.3126/nrber.v27i2.52563
U. Prasad
The first Constituent Assembly (CA) was dissolved without producing the constitution. The Constitution of Nepal as Federal Democratic Republic was promulgated on September 20, 2015 by the second CA. The primary objective of this study is to review the modality presented in the new constitution on the natural resources, economic rights and revenue allocation and recommend some amendments. The study finds that the fiscal decentralization initiatives have not been successful in minimizing the political, social, economic, regional and ethnic inequalities inherent for nearly 240 years of a unitary system of governance in Nepal. The study recommends: VAT and income taxes will have to be collected concurrently at both the central and sub-national levels. Other taxes including excise duties will have to be collected by the sub-national governments which will support the expenditure responsibilities of the sub-national governments adequately in federal Nepal. Intergovernmental transfer modality has to be included in the constitution. A Federal Finance Commission (FFC) and the National Planning Commission will have to be constituted at the central level to make national level development plans and to make recommendations for additional grants and loans. A State Planning Commission (SPC) and a State Finance Commission can be established in each state to prepare state development plans and to deal with the transfers to be made to local bodies.
第一届制宪会议(CA)在没有制定宪法的情况下解散。尼泊尔联邦民主共和国宪法于2015年9月20日由第二届宪法委员会颁布。本研究的主要目的是审查新宪法中关于自然资源,经济权利和收入分配的模式,并提出一些修改建议。研究发现,财政分权倡议未能成功地减少尼泊尔近240年的单一治理制度所固有的政治、社会、经济、区域和种族不平等。该研究建议:增值税和所得税必须在中央和地方两级同时征收。包括消费税在内的其他税收将由地方政府征收,这将充分支持尼泊尔联邦地方政府的支出责任。政府间转移方式必须列入宪法。必须在中央一级成立联邦财政委员会和国家计划委员会,以制定国家一级的发展计划,并就追加赠款和贷款提出建议。各州可设立国家计划委员会和国家财政委员会,以编制国家发展计划和处理向地方机构转移的资金。
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引用次数: 3
The Impact of Remittances on Central Bank Balance Sheets and Inflation in Nepal 汇款对尼泊尔中央银行资产负债表和通货膨胀的影响
Pub Date : 2015-11-24 DOI: 10.3126/nrber.v27i2.52555
N. Maskay, Sven Steinkamp, F. Westermann
Starting from a set of stylized central bank balance sheets, we analyze how central bank policies influence the inflationary impact of remittances. We also estimate the impact of remittances on inflation empirically, using a Vectorautoregression (VAR) framework and a quarterly data set from Nepal. We find this impact to be positive, even after controlling for inflation from India. The domestic monetary base, on the other hand, has lost significance as an independent factor for inflation in the latest 10 years of our sample period. This evidence is consistent with the "impossible trinity" hypothesis. In the conclusions we discuss policy options to accommodate large remittances inflows.
从一组程式化的央行资产负债表开始,我们分析了央行政策如何影响汇款的通胀影响。我们还使用向量自回归(VAR)框架和尼泊尔的季度数据集,从经验上估计了汇款对通货膨胀的影响。我们发现,即使在控制了印度的通胀因素后,这种影响也是积极的。另一方面,在我们的样本期的最近10年里,国内货币基础作为通货膨胀的一个独立因素已经失去了重要意义。这一证据与“不可能的三位一体”假说相一致。在结论中,我们讨论了容纳大量汇款流入的政策选择。
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引用次数: 1
Determinants of Corporate Dividend Payout in Nepal 尼泊尔公司股利支付的决定因素
Pub Date : 2015-11-24 DOI: 10.3126/nrber.v27i2.52559
N. Adhikari
There are several studies that investigated determinants of corporate dividend payout in developed and emerging stock markets. Such a study is scant in pre-emerging stock markets like that of Nepal. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the determinants of corporate dividend payout in Nepal. This paper examines whether enterprises’ characteristics affect dividend payouts of the enterprises listed on Nepal Stock Exchange Ltd. A priori hypothesis between relationship of the dividends paid by the enterprises and enterprises’ characteristics- net profits, size, lagged dividends, liquidity, risk, investment opportunity set, and number of shareholders are set based on theoretical framework and other empirical studies, and tested on 22 listed enterprises covering a 5-year period, 2009 to 2013 by employing regression model. Purposive sampling technique is used to select the enterprises for the study. The relationships of variables firstly analysed for overall sector and further for sub-sectors of financial and non-financial sector. Overall sector analysis is performed through pooled cross-sectional data. Further to check sectoral differences, sector wise regression analysis is performed. The results, in overall, reveal that profitability, size, and liquidity are major determinants of corporate dividend payout in Nepal. This study also reveals that there is sector specific importance of the determinants of corporate dividend payout in Nepal.
有几项研究调查了发达和新兴股票市场公司股息支付的决定因素。在尼泊尔等新兴市场出现之前的股市中,这样的研究很少。因此,本文的目的是研究尼泊尔公司股息支付的决定因素。本文考察了尼泊尔证券交易所有限公司上市企业的企业特征是否影响股利支付。在理论框架和其他实证研究的基础上,提出了企业股利支付与企业特征——净利润、规模、滞后股利、流动性、风险、投资机会集、股东人数之间关系的先验假设,并运用回归模型对2009 - 2013年22家上市企业5年的数据进行了检验。采用有目的抽样的方法选择研究对象。首先分析了整个行业的变量关系,然后分析了金融和非金融细分行业的变量关系。整体部门分析是通过汇集的横截面数据进行的。进一步检查部门差异,部门明智的回归分析进行。总体而言,结果表明,盈利能力,规模和流动性是尼泊尔公司股息支付的主要决定因素。本研究还表明,尼泊尔公司股息支付的决定因素具有部门特定的重要性。
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引用次数: 3
Cost Efficiency of Nepali Commercial Banks in the Context of Regulatory Changes 监管变化背景下尼泊尔商业银行的成本效率
Pub Date : 2015-11-24 DOI: 10.3126/nrber.v27i2.52561
Sabin Bikram Panta, Devi Prasad Bedari
Nepal has witnessed substantial quantitative growth in the banking sector after the regulatory reforms in early 1990s by Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB). The substantial increases in the number of banks have created intense competition among them. This has resulted in a sharp upward trend in the number of financially troubled banks. The study examined the level of cost efficiency of 18 “A” class commercial banks during the period of 2005/06 to 2011/12 by using stochastic frontier analysis. The overall result indicates that the level of cost efficiency has increased substantially over the period of time with small size banks exhibiting higher cost efficiency as compared to the medium size ones. Similarly, result also shows that change in the regulation after 2008 even though is positively related with the cost, but not statistically significant.
尼泊尔拉斯特拉银行(NRB)在20世纪90年代初进行监管改革后,尼泊尔银行业的数量大幅增长。银行数量的大幅增加导致了银行之间的激烈竞争。这导致陷入财务困境的银行数量急剧上升。本研究采用随机前沿分析法对18家“A”类商业银行2005/06 - 2011/12年间的成本效率水平进行了研究。总体结果表明,成本效率水平在一段时间内大幅提高,与中型银行相比,小型银行表现出更高的成本效率。同样,结果也表明,2008年以后的规制变化虽然与成本呈正相关,但并不具有统计学意义。
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引用次数: 4
Theoretical Paradigm on Bank Capital Regulation and its Impact on Bank-Borrower Behavior 银行资本监管的理论范式及其对银行-借款人行为的影响
Pub Date : 2015-09-01 DOI: 10.3126/nrber.v27i2.52557
G. Bhatta
Bank equity plays an important role in the credit allocation process of financial intermediaries. Financial institutions with higher level of equity are in better position to absorb losses and repay deposits in a timely manner. This relates to the bank capital channel of monetary policy transmission mechanism stating that banks having sound financial health could contribute significantly in transmitting monetary impulses to the real sector. Considering the important role that bank equity plays in shaping the risk taking behavior of financial intermediaries, central banks set the minimum paid-up capital requirement for banks and financial institutions. Though this regulatory requirement is aimed at ensuring the smooth financial intermediation, this could become costlier in extending loans particularly in the times of business cycle fluctuations. A higher capital requirement might also constrain the lending capacity of a bank. Given the conflicting theoretical assumptions on the role of equity capital on financial stability and economic growth, this paper develops a theoretical model examining the relationship between bank equity and its effect on bank-borrower behavior. The theoretical model recommends that higher level of bank equity might be helpful in ensuring financial stability by altering the behavior of the bank and borrower.
银行股权在金融中介机构的信贷配置过程中起着重要作用。权益水平越高的金融机构吸收损失、及时偿还存款的能力越强。这涉及到货币政策传导机制的银行资本渠道,即拥有良好财务状况的银行可以在向实体部门传导货币冲动方面做出重大贡献。考虑到银行股本在塑造金融中介机构风险承担行为方面的重要作用,央行为银行和金融机构设定了最低实收资本要求。尽管这一监管要求的目的是确保金融中介的顺利进行,但在发放贷款方面,特别是在商业周期波动时期,这可能会增加成本。更高的资本要求也可能限制银行的贷款能力。鉴于关于权益资本对金融稳定和经济增长的作用的相互矛盾的理论假设,本文建立了一个理论模型,研究银行股权及其对银行-借款人行为的影响之间的关系。该理论模型建议,更高水平的银行股本可能有助于通过改变银行和借款人的行为来确保金融稳定。
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引用次数: 4
Financial Literacy for Increasing Sustainable Access to Finance in Nepal 尼泊尔金融知识普及促进可持续融资
Pub Date : 2015-09-01 DOI: 10.3126/nrber.v27i2.52558
R. Chaulagain
Recent policies and practices of Nepali financial sector are focused to establish financial institutions to increase people’s ‘access to finance’. As a result, the numbers of financial institutions licensed both by Nepal Rastra Bank and Government of Nepal are growing rapidly. All the institutions are doing the similar functions in the same market. The financial institutions licensed by Nepal Rastra Bank are classified into commercial banks, development banks, finance companies and micro finance development banks, whereas the Government of Nepal licenses to the saving and credit cooperative socieites (SACCOS). Despite the supply sided endeavors, the demand side considerations in financial sector is more silent. This creates a concern about the capability of people in consuming financial services. As a result, quality and sustainable access to finance are in question. Furthermore, the expansions of such institutions are also concentrated in urban, semi-urban and priviledged areas causing unequal distribution of institutions and limited access to finance. This situation has given rise to unhealthy competition among the actors focusing on earning rather than empowering the financial consumers. This paper explores how far the expansion of Banks and Financial Institutions including cooperatives assures the access to finance and its sustainability. The secondary data shows a significant growth of financial sector and an increment of number of people involved in financial transactions in the banking industry. However, the primary data of the study shows that such expansion is necessary but not sufficient condition to assure a sustainable access to finance. The study also explores the worth of financial literacy among the people both in urban and rural areas as one of the means to enhance people’s access to finance and its sustainability. The paper is based more on the discussion and analytical approach with a mix of secondary and primary sources of data.
尼泊尔金融部门最近的政策和做法侧重于建立金融机构,以增加人们的“融资渠道”。因此,获得尼泊尔拉斯特拉银行和尼泊尔政府许可的金融机构数量正在迅速增长。所有的机构都在同一个市场上做着类似的工作。尼泊尔拉斯特拉银行许可的金融机构分为商业银行、开发银行、金融公司和微型金融开发银行,而尼泊尔政府许可储蓄和信用合作社(SACCOS)。尽管有供给方面的努力,但金融领域的需求方面的考虑更为沉默。这引发了人们对消费金融服务能力的担忧。因此,高质量和可持续的融资渠道成为问题。此外,这类机构的扩张也集中在城市、半城市和特权地区,造成机构分布不均和获得资金的机会有限。这种情况导致了关注收入的行为者之间的不健康竞争,而不是赋予金融消费者权力。本文探讨了包括合作社在内的银行和金融机构的扩张在多大程度上确保了融资的可获得性及其可持续性。二级数据显示,金融业显著增长,银行业参与金融交易的人数增加。然而,研究的初步数据表明,这种扩大是必要的,但不是充分条件,以确保可持续获得资金。该研究还探讨了在城市和农村地区的人们中,金融知识作为提高人们获得金融服务及其可持续性的手段之一的价值。本文更多地基于讨论和分析方法,结合了二手和一手数据来源。
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引用次数: 5
期刊
NRB Economic Review
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