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Financial Literacy in Nepal: A Survey Analysis from College Students 尼泊尔大学生金融素养调查分析
Pub Date : 2015-05-24 DOI: 10.3126/nrber.v27i1.52567
B. Thapa, S. Nepal
This study surveys 436 college students to examine their financial literacy; the impact of demographic, educational and personality characteristics on financial literacy. Mean, ANOVA and logistic regression were used in carrying out analysis. Results show that most of the students have basic level of financial knowledge but they lack in understanding of credit, taxes, share market, financial statement and insurance. Students are highly influenced by their parents at home and they have positive attitude towards savings. The study further identified income, age, stream of education, types of college, and attitude of students as determinants of financial knowledge; and financial knowledge is unaffected by gender, university affiliation, financial behavior and influence. It is concluded that college students have basic level of financial knowledge. However, overall financial knowledge of the students is affected by some of their demographic, educational and personality characteristics.
本研究对436名大学生进行了财务素养调查;人口、教育和人格特征对金融素养的影响。采用均值、方差分析和logistic回归进行分析。结果表明,大多数学生具有基本的金融知识水平,但对信贷、税收、股票市场、财务报表和保险的了解不足。学生在家里受到父母的影响很大,他们对储蓄的态度很积极。该研究进一步确定了收入、年龄、教育流、大学类型和学生态度是金融知识的决定因素;金融知识不受性别、大学背景、金融行为和影响力的影响。结果表明,大学生具有一定的金融知识基础。然而,学生的整体金融知识受到一些人口、教育和个性特征的影响。
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引用次数: 52
Role of Financial Development in Economic Growth of Nepal: An Empirical Analysis 金融发展在尼泊尔经济增长中的作用:一个实证分析
Pub Date : 2015-05-24 DOI: 10.3126/nrber.v27i1.52564
B. P. Gautam
Economic growth and financial development are closely related. The interaction between them is crucial and has attracted great attention of researchers. This study attempts to examine the relationship between economic growth and financial development in Nepal between 1975 and 2012. The paper has used Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Philips-Perron tests to test for the existence of unit root, Co-integration test to examine long run relationship and Granger Causality test to find out causal relationship. In addition, vector error correction method has been applied to find out the speed of adjustment and the dynamics of relationship. The empirical evidence confirms that the financial development causes economic growth. In fact, financial development is the cause for economic growth in terms of short-term dynamics, while economic growth sustains financial development in the long-run. Based on the empirical findings, this study recommends that it is necessary to launch the reform programs in the financial system to consolidate and improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the financial system as well as to cope with the emerging changes. Thus, it asks for the consolidation of the system not only for the positive reinforcement between economic growth and financial development but also for the post crisis resilience and sustainability.
经济增长与金融发展密切相关。它们之间的相互作用是至关重要的,引起了研究者的极大关注。本研究试图考察1975年至2012年间尼泊尔经济增长与金融发展之间的关系。本文采用增广Dickey-Fuller检验和phillips - perron检验来检验单位根是否存在,协整检验来检验长期关系,格兰杰因果检验来找出因果关系。此外,还采用矢量误差修正方法来确定调整速度和动态关系。实证证明,金融发展促进了经济增长。事实上,从短期动力来看,金融发展是经济增长的原因,而从长期来看,经济增长又支撑着金融发展。基于实证研究结果,本研究建议有必要启动金融体制改革方案,以巩固和提高金融体系的效率和有效性,并应对新出现的变化。因此,它要求巩固这一体系,不仅是为了经济增长和金融发展之间的积极加强,也是为了危机后的复原力和可持续性。
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引用次数: 0
An Examination of Nepal’s Export Choice based on Revealed Comparative Advantage 基于显性比较优势的尼泊尔出口选择研究
Pub Date : 2015-05-24 DOI: 10.3126/nrber.v27i1.52568
Nimesh Salike, Benli Lu
This paper examines the comparative advantage of a selection of 27 Nepal’s export products, of which 16 are extracted from the Nepal Trade Integration Strategy (NTIS 2010) list of potential priority exports. The primary purpose of this study is to investigate if these priority export products are in alignment with the concept of comparative advantage. Balassa’s revealed comparative advantage (RCA) index is used as the methodology for analysis while the data used spans from 2000 to 2011. Empirical results show that out of the 16 NTIS 2010 potential priority exports, only 10 are products which Nepal has comparative advantage in producing, major ones being pashmina, wool and agro food products. The findings also reveal that there are at least three other products- carpets, textile and juice that Nepal poses high RCA indices but are not included under NTIS 2010 priority list.
本文考察了尼泊尔27种出口产品的比较优势,其中16种是从尼泊尔贸易一体化战略(NTIS 2010)潜在优先出口清单中提取的。本研究的主要目的是探讨这些优先出口产品是否符合比较优势的概念。本文采用Balassa’s revealed comparative advantage (RCA) index作为分析方法,数据跨度为2000年至2011年。实证结果表明,在NTIS 2010年的16种潜在优先出口产品中,只有10种是尼泊尔在生产方面具有比较优势的产品,主要是羊绒、羊毛和农产品。调查结果还显示,至少还有其他三种产品——地毯、纺织品和果汁——尼泊尔的RCA指数很高,但没有被列入NTIS 2010年优先清单。
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引用次数: 3
Testing the J-Curve Hypothesis: A Case of Nepal j曲线假设的检验:以尼泊尔为例
Pub Date : 2015-04-01 DOI: 10.3126/nrber.v27i1.52565
M. K. Chaulagai
This paper attempts to explore the J-curve phenomenon in the case of Nepalese foreign trade sector in order to examine whether devaluation2 of Nepalese currency can be taken as a policy tool for improving Nepalese trade imbalance with the rest of the world economies. Johansen's cointegration test, vector autoregression (VAR) model, impulse response function as well as autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing cointegration approach has been employed in order to see the relationships between the nominal effective exchange rate index (NEER) and trade balance (TB) as well as the real effective exchange rate index (REER) and trade balance (TB) of Nepal. The study found no evidence of "J-curve" in the case of Nepalese trade. On the contrary to the "J-curve" phenomenon as explained by the classical text books, the findings of the study suggest that depreciation of Nepalese exchange rate rather produces a flatter "L-curve" phenomenon indicating that there is no room for improving Nepalese trade imbalance through a currency devaluation process.
本文试图探讨尼泊尔对外贸易部门的j曲线现象,以检验尼泊尔货币贬值是否可以作为改善尼泊尔与世界其他经济体贸易不平衡的政策工具。采用Johansen协整检验、向量自回归(VAR)模型、脉冲响应函数以及自回归分布滞后(ARDL)界检验等协整方法,考察尼泊尔名义有效汇率指数(NEER)与贸易差额(TB)以及实际有效汇率指数(REER)与贸易差额(TB)之间的关系。该研究没有发现尼泊尔贸易中存在“j曲线”的证据。与经典教科书解释的“j曲线”现象相反,研究结果表明,尼泊尔汇率贬值产生的是更平坦的“l曲线”现象,表明通过货币贬值过程无法改善尼泊尔的贸易不平衡。
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引用次数: 5
Cyclicality in the Fiscal Policy of Nepal 尼泊尔财政政策的周期性
Pub Date : 2015-04-01 DOI: 10.3126/nrber.v27i1.52566
T. Koirala
This paper examines discretionary fiscal policy response to the business cycle of Nepal using annual time series ranging from 1975 to 2013. The Cyclically Adjusted Balance (CAB) of overall budget balance is utilized as a measure of discretionary fiscal actions and the output gap a measures of business cycles. Graphical depiction of the CAB accompanied with the output gap shows that the government of Nepal has been pursuing counter-cyclical fiscal policy in the post liberalization period and pro-cyclical in the pre-liberalization period. In line with the recent empirical finding that only counter-cyclical fiscal policy is capable in performing stabilization function, this paper found that the fiscal stimulus of the government of Nepal has also been adding aggregate demand during downturns (bad time) and withdrawing demand during upturns (good time) as envisaged by counter-cyclical discretionary fiscal policy. The counter-cyclicality as such is strong during 2000s whereas there is mild pro-cyclicality during the period 2011-13. For computing CAB, this paper assumes unitary elasticity of revenue with respect to output gap and zero expenditure elasticity with respect to output gap. The output gap has been estimated based on the trend component of the GDP using Kalman filter method. Factors like stronger institutions and sound macroeconomic policies might overcome recent pro-cyclicality of Nepal and allows room for counter-cyclical fiscal policy in the future. Similarly, the phenomenon of high fluctuations in the fiscal impulse over time indicates uncertain and inconsistent fiscal stance of the government. It demands for focus more on automatic stabilizers rather than more discretionary fiscal actions by broadening tax bases and social safety nets.
本文利用1975年至2013年的年度时间序列,考察了尼泊尔自由裁量性财政政策对经济周期的反应。总体预算平衡的周期调整平衡(CAB)被用来衡量自由裁量的财政行为,而产出缺口被用来衡量商业周期。CAB与产出缺口的图形描述表明,尼泊尔政府在自由化后时期一直奉行反周期财政政策,而在自由化前时期一直奉行顺周期财政政策。根据最近的实证发现,只有反周期财政政策能够发挥稳定功能,本文发现尼泊尔政府的财政刺激也在经济低迷时期(坏时间)增加总需求,在经济好转时期(好时间)减少需求,这是反周期自由裁量财政政策所设想的。2000年代的逆周期性很强,而2011- 2013年期间则有轻微的顺周期性。为了计算CAB,本文假设收入相对于产出缺口的弹性为一元,支出相对于产出缺口的弹性为零。利用卡尔曼滤波方法,根据GDP的趋势分量估计了产出缺口。更强大的制度和健全的宏观经济政策等因素可能会克服尼泊尔最近的顺周期性,并为未来的反周期财政政策提供空间。同样,随着时间的推移,财政冲动的高度波动现象表明政府的财政立场不确定和不一致。它要求更多地关注自动稳定器,而不是通过扩大税基和社会保障网络来采取更多自由裁量的财政行动。
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引用次数: 0
Relevance of Keynesianism in Nepal: An Empirical Analysis 凯恩斯主义在尼泊尔的相关性:一个实证分析
Pub Date : 2014-10-08 DOI: 10.3126/nrber.v26i2.52584
Hom Nath Gaire
In this paper, the relevance of Keynesian postulates has been examined in the Nepalese context for the period 1975-2012 using annual time series data. The empirical results from the Johansen co-integration tests clearly show that there is long run equilibrium relationship between government expenditure and real GDP, private consumption and gross fixed capital formation. Likewise, Granger Causality test confirms that there is bilateral causal relationship between government expenditure and gross fixed capital formation in Nepal. However, no causal relationship is observed between government expenditure and real GDP and private consumption. Thus, it is confirmed by this study that the Keynesian postulates are relevant for capital formation rather than for increasing real GDP growth and private consumption in Nepal.
在本文中,使用年度时间序列数据,在尼泊尔背景下检查了1975-2012年期间凯恩斯假设的相关性。johnson协整检验的实证结果清楚地表明,政府支出与实际GDP、私人消费与固定资本形成总额之间存在长期均衡关系。同样,格兰杰因果检验也证实了尼泊尔政府支出与固定资本形成总额之间存在双边因果关系。然而,政府支出与实际GDP和私人消费之间没有因果关系。因此,本研究证实,凯恩斯主义假设与尼泊尔的资本形成有关,而不是与增加实际GDP增长和私人消费有关。
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引用次数: 0
Determinants of Inflation in Nepal: An Empirical Assessment 尼泊尔通货膨胀的决定因素:一个实证评估
Pub Date : 2014-10-08 DOI: 10.3126/nrber.v26i2.52583
S. Paudyal
This paper examines short term and long term effects of the macroeconomic variables on the inflation in Nepal during 1975-2011. The variables considered are budget deficits, Indian prices, broad money supply, exchange rate and real GDP. The regression results from Wickens-Breusch Single Equation Error Correction model suggest that all variables considered are significant in long run implying that these variables are the determinants of inflation in Nepal. However, only budget deficit, money supply and Indian prices cause inflation in the short run. The results are consistent with monetarists’ hypothesis of money matters and inflationary gap theory of Keynesian as well as supply constraints approach to inflation.
本文考察了1975-2011年间宏观经济变量对尼泊尔通货膨胀的短期和长期影响。考虑的变量包括预算赤字、印度物价、广义货币供应量、汇率和实际GDP。Wickens-Breusch单方程误差修正模型的回归结果表明,所有考虑的变量在长期内都是显著的,这意味着这些变量是尼泊尔通货膨胀的决定因素。然而,只有预算赤字、货币供应和印度物价在短期内导致通货膨胀。研究结果与货币主义者的货币问题假设、凯恩斯的通货膨胀缺口理论以及通货膨胀的供给约束理论相一致。
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引用次数: 10
Bank Credit and Economic Growth in Nepal: An Empirical Analysis 尼泊尔银行信贷与经济增长:实证分析
Pub Date : 2014-10-08 DOI: 10.3126/nrber.v26i2.52577
Neelam Timsina
This study examines the impact of commercial bank credit to the private sector on the economic growth in Nepal from supply side perspectives. The study has applied Johansen co-integration approach and Error Correction Model using the time series data for the period of 1975-2014. The empirical results show that bank credit to the private sector has positive effects on the economic growth in Nepal only in the long run. Nevertheless, in the short run, it has been observed a feedback effect from economic growth to private sector credit. More specifically, the growth in real private sector credit by 1 percentage point contributes to an increase in real gross domestic product by 0.40 percentage point in the long run. The empirical results imply that, policy makers should focus on long run policies to promote economic growth – development of modern banking sector, efficient financial market and infrastructure so as to increase the private sector credit which is instrumental to promote growth in the long run.
本研究从供给侧的角度考察了商业银行对私营部门信贷对尼泊尔经济增长的影响。本研究使用1975-2014年的时间序列数据,采用Johansen协整方法和误差修正模型。实证结果表明,银行对私营部门的信贷仅在长期内对尼泊尔的经济增长有积极影响。然而,在短期内,已经观察到经济增长对私人部门信贷的反馈效应。更具体地说,长期来看,私人部门实际信贷每增长1个百分点,实际国内生产总值(gdp)就会增长0.40个百分点。实证结果表明,政策制定者应关注促进经济增长的长期政策——发展现代银行业、高效的金融市场和基础设施,以增加私营部门信贷,这对促进经济增长具有长期作用。
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引用次数: 5
Structural Change and Per Capita Income in Nepal: Empirical Evidences 尼泊尔结构变迁与人均收入:实证证据
Pub Date : 2014-10-08 DOI: 10.3126/nrber.v26i2.52581
G. Bhatta
This paper empirically examines Nepalese economic structure by applying OLS technique on the annual series of sectoral growth, population and capital related variables ranging from 1975 – 2012. The estimates obtained with due consideration of stationarity of the series including HP filter revealed that industrial sector is significant to increase per capita income compared to the agriculture and service sectors in Nepal. Moreover, health as indicated by life expectancy and population at working age are found to be substantial to increase the income but, education and capital formation are found insignificant. It is inferred that employment matters for raising per capita income, requiring employment-led growth rather mere growth of economic sub-sectors. Hence, it is needed to have balanced contribution of economic sub-sectors and their employment share to national economy along with healthy workforce to raise the per capita income.
本文通过运用OLS技术对1975年至2012年的部门增长、人口和资本相关变量的年度序列进行实证研究,对尼泊尔的经济结构进行了实证研究。在适当考虑了包括HP过滤器在内的系列平稳性后得出的估计数显示,与尼泊尔的农业和服务部门相比,工业部门对增加人均收入具有重要意义。此外,预期寿命所显示的健康和工作年龄人口被认为对增加收入有重要作用,但教育和资本形成被认为是微不足道的。由此可以推断,就业对提高人均收入很重要,需要以就业为主导的增长,而不仅仅是经济分部门的增长。因此,需要平衡经济子部门及其就业份额对国民经济的贡献以及健康的劳动力,以提高人均收入。
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引用次数: 2
Determinants of Stock Market Performance in Nepal 尼泊尔股市表现的决定因素
Pub Date : 2014-10-08 DOI: 10.3126/nrber.v26i2.52578
Prakash Shrestha, Biggyan Raj Subedi
This paper empirically examines the determinants of the stock market performance in Nepal using monthly data for the period of mid-August 2000 to mid-July 2014. The impact of major changes in politics and Nepal Rastra Bank’s policy on lending against share collateral has also been assessed. Empirical results obtained from OLS estimations of behavioural equations reveal that the performance of stock market is found to respond positively to inflation and broad money growth, and negatively to interest rate. This suggests that, in Nepal, share investors seem to take equity as a hedge against inflation and consider stock as an alternative financial instrument. Further, availability of liquidity and the low interest rates stimulate the performance of the Nepalese stock market. More importantly, stock market has been found to respond significantly to changes in political environment and the policy of Nepal Rastra Bank. These findings help to design policies to stabilize or stimulate the share market in Nepal.
本文利用2000年8月中旬至2014年7月中旬的月度数据,实证检验了尼泊尔股市表现的决定因素。还评估了政治和尼泊尔拉斯特拉银行股票抵押贷款政策的重大变化的影响。从行为方程的OLS估计中获得的实证结果表明,股票市场的表现发现对通货膨胀和广义货币增长的反应是积极的,对利率的反应是消极的。这表明,在尼泊尔,股票投资者似乎将股票作为对冲通胀的工具,并将股票视为另一种金融工具。此外,流动性的可用性和低利率刺激了尼泊尔股票市场的表现。更重要的是,我们发现股票市场对政治环境和尼泊尔拉斯特拉银行的政策变化有显著的反应。这些发现有助于制定稳定或刺激尼泊尔股票市场的政策。
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引用次数: 48
期刊
NRB Economic Review
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