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The effects of COVID-19 on employment, labor markets, and gender equality in Central America COVID-19对中美洲就业、劳动力市场和性别平等的影响
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.2478/izajodm-2022-0001
A. Webster, S. Khorana, Francesco Pastore
Abstract This study considers the economic impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on commercial enterprises in four Central American countries – El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. At the time of analysis, neither the pandemic nor its economic consequences had fully run their course. It is not, therefore, a definitive analysis, but it is important to try to draw important lessons as soon as possible. The main focus of the study was the initial impact on labor markets. The analysis was based on World Bank Enterprise Surveys undertaken before the outbreak of COVID-19 and follow-up surveys on the effects of the pandemic, also undertaken by the World Bank (Source: Enterprise Surveys, The World Bank, http://www.enterprisesurveys.org). These were combined with data on both government containment measures and rates of morbidity and mortality. The use of enterprise data to analyze labor market issues has some limitations but also many strengths. The data are useful for analyzing the consequences for gender equality in employment. Since the demand for labor is a derived demand, firm-level data provide a clear link to labor market effects. The pandemic has caused a significant loss in sales for many firms. This has created a loss of liquidity, which, in turn, has caused some firms to reduce employment, working hours, and wages. Government containment measures necessary to save lives, such as temporary workplace closures, have added to the burden for both firms and employees. The study starts by using the surveys to identify the important stylized facts. Although some issues are already well documented anecdotally through media reports, this method provides a more evidence-based approach. It also helps identify several issues, such as the impact on gender equality, which has received less journalistic attention. The study is further supported by a regression analysis (ordinary least squares and seemingly unrelated regression equations models) of several key outcomes (changes in sales, employment, the share of females in employment, and expectations of firm survival). A limitation of such an analysis at any enterprise level is heterogeneity and, consequently, a risk of sample selection bias. To provide robustness checks, we use a matching approach. The results suggest that a significant proportion of surviving firms are vulnerable to permanent closure. The ability of firms to retain labor depends on sales, which are affected by both the pandemic itself and the government containment measures. Only a small proportion of firms have received government support, and there is evidence that it could help both firm survival and the retention of labor. There is some doubt whether the four countries have the institutional capacity to provide effective support. If such doubts prove well founded, then support may need to be externally driven.
摘要本研究考虑了2019冠状病毒病(新冠肺炎)对萨尔瓦多、危地马拉、洪都拉斯和尼加拉瓜四个中美洲国家商业企业的经济影响。在进行分析时,无论是疫情还是其经济后果都没有完全结束。因此,这不是一个明确的分析,但尽快吸取重要教训是很重要的。这项研究的主要焦点是对劳动力市场的最初影响。该分析基于新冠肺炎爆发前世界银行进行的企业调查和世界银行也进行的关于疫情影响的后续调查(来源:企业调查,世界银行,http://www.enterprisesurveys.org)。这些数据与政府遏制措施以及发病率和死亡率的数据相结合。使用企业数据分析劳动力市场问题有一些局限性,但也有很多优势。这些数据有助于分析就业中两性平等的后果。由于劳动力需求是一种衍生需求,企业层面的数据提供了劳动力市场效应的明确联系。疫情给许多公司的销售额造成了重大损失。这造成了流动性的损失,反过来又导致一些公司减少了就业、工作时间和工资。政府为挽救生命而采取的必要遏制措施,如临时关闭工作场所,增加了公司和员工的负担。该研究首先使用调查来确定重要的程式化事实。尽管一些问题已经通过媒体报道得到了很好的记录,但这种方法提供了一种更基于证据的方法。它还有助于确定几个问题,例如对性别平等的影响,而这一问题较少受到新闻界的关注。这项研究得到了对几个关键结果(销售额、就业、女性就业份额和企业生存预期的变化)的回归分析(普通最小二乘法和看似无关的回归方程模型)的进一步支持。这种分析在任何企业层面的局限性都是异质性,因此存在样本选择偏差的风险。为了提供稳健性检查,我们使用匹配方法。研究结果表明,相当一部分幸存的公司很容易被永久关闭。企业留住劳动力的能力取决于销售额,而销售额既受到疫情本身的影响,也受到政府遏制措施的影响。只有一小部分公司得到了政府的支持,有证据表明这有助于公司生存和留住劳动力。这四个国家是否有提供有效支持的体制能力,存在一些疑问。如果这种怀疑被证明是有根据的,那么支持可能需要外部驱动。
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引用次数: 3
Gender Imbalances and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from Large-Scale Mexican Migration 性别失衡和劳动力市场结果:来自大规模墨西哥移民的证据
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.2478/izajodm-2021-0002
E. Conover, Melanie Khamis, S. Pearlman
Abstract We study the consequences of international migration on labor market outcomes in a developing country. Specifically, we look at the case of Mexico, where large-scale international migration has led to significant declines in the male/female ratio. We explore whether this results in Mexican women entering high-skilled and better paying jobs over time. This question is relevant since there has been an increase in women's education and labor force participation across the developing world, but less evidence of improvements in the gender wage gap. Using an instrumental variables strategy that relies on historical migration patterns, we find that when there are relatively fewer men, women are more likely to work, have high-skilled jobs, and some earn higher wages. These results are robust to the inclusion of state, age group, and year fixed effects, and to different measures of migration and data sources. We explore investments in human capital as a key mechanism. We find that the gains in schooling are concentrated among women with the same average level of education of the men who migrate. From an aggregate perspective, these improvements in job type and wages are important given that higher female income may benefit the status, education, and health of both women and children, which in turn increases a country's development and growth. Our findings are among the few that show some movement toward improvements in the gender wage gap in a developing country setting.
我们研究了国际移民对发展中国家劳动力市场结果的影响。具体来说,我们看看墨西哥的情况,大规模的国际移民导致男女比例显著下降。随着时间的推移,我们探索这是否会导致墨西哥妇女进入高技能和高薪的工作。这个问题是相关的,因为在整个发展中国家,妇女的受教育程度和劳动参与率都有所提高,但性别工资差距改善的证据较少。使用依赖于历史迁移模式的工具变量策略,我们发现,当男性相对较少时,女性更有可能工作,从事高技能工作,有些人的工资更高。这些结果对于包括州、年龄组和年份固定效应,以及不同的移民措施和数据来源都是稳健的。我们将探索人力资本投资作为一个关键机制。我们发现,受教育程度的提高主要集中在与移民男性平均受教育程度相同的女性身上。从总体来看,工作类型和工资方面的这些改进是重要的,因为女性收入的提高可能有利于妇女和儿童的地位、教育和健康,从而促进一个国家的发展和增长。我们的研究结果是少数显示发展中国家性别工资差距有所改善的研究之一。
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引用次数: 4
Migrating out of mega-cities: Evidence from Brazil 从特大城市迁出:来自巴西的证据
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.2478/izajodm-2021-0003
Eva-Maria Egger
Abstract Traditional economic models predict rural to urban migration during the structural transformation of an economy. In middle-income countries, it is less clear which direction of migration to expect. In this article, the author shows that in Brazil as many people move out as into metropolitan cities and they mostly move to mid-sized towns. The author estimates the determinants of out-migrants’ destination choice accounting for differences in earnings, living costs, and amenities and tested whether the migrants gain economically by accepting lower wages but enjoying lower living costs. The findings suggest that in their destination choice, out-migrants aim to minimize costs of moving. On average, city-leavers realize higher real wages, including low-skilled migrants who would lose in nominal terms. The article thus provides new evidence on economic incentives to leave big cities in a middle-income country.
摘要传统的经济模型预测了经济结构转型期间农村向城市的迁移。在中等收入国家,预期的移民方向不太清楚。在这篇文章中,作者表明,在巴西,搬出去的人和搬到大都市的人一样多,他们大多搬到中等规模的城镇。作者估计了考虑收入、生活成本和便利设施差异的外来移民目的地选择的决定因素,并测试了移民是否通过接受较低的工资但享受较低的生活成本而获得经济利益。研究结果表明,在选择目的地时,外来移民的目的是尽量减少搬迁成本。平均而言,离开城市的人实现了更高的实际工资,包括名义上会损失的低技能移民。因此,这篇文章为中等收入国家离开大城市的经济激励提供了新的证据。
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引用次数: 0
Spaniards in the wider world: the role of education in the choice of destination country 更广阔世界中的西班牙人:教育在目的地国家选择中的作用
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.2478/izajodm-2021-0006
Héctor Bellido, Miriam Marcén, Marina Morales
Abstract This paper examines the relationship between the education level of Spanish emigrants and their destination country. Since Spanish emigrants were born under the same laws and institutions, the differences in their destination countries can be due to dissimilarities in their level of education. To explore this, we use census microdata, covering the period from 2000 to 2007, of 21 countries with Spanish emigrants. Results suggest that with low unemployment rates, English- and Spanish-speaking countries are the most likely to become the host countries for more educated individuals, regardless of their location.
摘要本文考察了西班牙移民的教育水平与移民目的地国之间的关系。由于西班牙移民出生在相同的法律和制度下,他们的目的地国家的差异可能是由于他们的教育水平不同。为了探讨这一点,我们使用了涵盖2000年至2007年期间的21个西班牙移民国家的人口普查微观数据。结果表明,由于失业率低,英语和西班牙语国家最有可能成为受教育程度更高的个人的东道国,而不管他们在哪里。
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引用次数: 0
Working beyond the normal retirement age in urban China and urban Russia 在中国城市和俄罗斯城市超过正常退休年龄工作
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.2478/izajodm-2021-0005
B. Gustafsson, L. Nivorozhkina, Haiyuan Wan
Abstract The incidence of working for earnings beyond the normal pension age of 55 for females and 60 for males in urban China and Russia is investigated using micro-data for 2002, 2013, and 2018. Estimated logit models indicate that, in both countries, the probability of working after normal retirement age is positively related to living with a spouse only, being healthy, and having a higher education level. It is negatively associated with age, the scale of pension, and, in urban China, being female. We find that seniors in urban Russia are more likely to work for earnings than their counterparts in China. Two possible reasons that are attributable to this difference are ruled out, namely cross-country differences in health status and the age distribution among elderly people. We also demonstrate that working beyond the normal retirement age has a much stronger negative association with earnings in urban China than in urban Russia. This is consistent with the facts that the normal retirement age is strictly enforced in urban China and seniors attempting to work face intensive competition from younger migrant workers. We conclude that China can learn from Russia that it has a substantial potential for increasing employment among healthy people under 70.
摘要利用2002年、2013年和2018年的微观数据,调查了中国和俄罗斯城市中女性55岁和男性60岁的正常养老金年龄以外的工作收入发生率。估计的logit模型表明,在这两个国家,在正常退休年龄后工作的概率与仅与配偶生活、健康和受教育程度较高呈正相关。它与年龄、养老金规模以及在中国城市中的女性呈负相关。我们发现,俄罗斯城市的老年人比中国的老年人更有可能为收入而工作。排除了造成这种差异的两个可能原因,即健康状况的跨国差异和老年人的年龄分布。我们还证明,在中国城市,超过正常退休年龄工作与收入的负相关要比在俄罗斯城市强得多。这与中国城市严格执行正常退休年龄的事实是一致的,试图工作的老年人面临着来自年轻农民工的激烈竞争。我们得出的结论是,中国可以从俄罗斯那里学到,它在增加70岁以下健康人群就业方面具有巨大潜力。
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引用次数: 1
Queuing to leave: A new approach to immigration 排队离开:一种新的移民方式
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.2478/izajodm-2021-0007
N. Sarma
Abstract This paper uses queuing theory to examine the linkages between legal and illegal immigration. This approach is particularly appropriate for periods of mass migration and can be used to look at how the magnitude of people trying to migrate affects the choice between legal and illegal channels. An empirical illustration shows how origin-country conflict and past migration differently affect current legal and illegal flows. With data for Schengen countries from Eurostat for documented immigration and the European Agency for the Management of Operational Cooperation at the External Borders of the Member States of the European Union (Frontex) for illegal border crossings (IBCs), I implement a generalized method of moments (GMM) strategy using different estimates of conflict-related deaths and lagged flows of immigration as external and internal instruments, respectively. Violent conflict has a positive and significant effect on IBCs but not on documented migration flows. I find evidence of positive spillovers from the legal channel of immigration into the illegal channel but not vice versa.
摘要本文运用排队理论考察了合法移民与非法移民之间的联系。这种方法特别适用于大规模移徙时期,并可用于研究试图移徙的人数如何影响合法和非法渠道之间的选择。实证说明了原籍国冲突和过去的移徙如何以不同的方式影响当前的合法和非法流动。根据欧盟统计局关于有证件移民的申根国家数据和欧洲联盟成员国外部边界业务合作管理机构(Frontex)关于非法越境(IBCs)的数据,我实施了一种广义矩量法(GMM)战略,分别使用与冲突有关的死亡和滞后移民流动的不同估计作为外部和内部工具。暴力冲突对ibc有积极和显著的影响,但对有记录的移民流动没有影响。我找到了从合法移民渠道向非法移民渠道产生积极溢出效应的证据,但反之则不然。
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引用次数: 1
Informal work in sub-Saharan Africa: Dead end or stepping-stone? 撒哈拉以南非洲的非正式工作:死胡同还是敲门砖?
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.35188/unu-wider/2019/743-9
Michael Danquah, Simone Schotte, Kunal Sen
Abstract Despite rapid economic growth in recent decades, informality remains a persistent phenomenon in the labor markets of many low- and middle-income countries. A key issue in this regard concerns the extent to which informality itself is a persistent state. Using panel data from Ghana, South Africa, Tanzania, and Uganda, this paper presents one of the very few analyses providing evidence on this question in the context of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results reveal an important extent of heterogeneity in the transition patterns observed for workers in upper-tier versus lower-tier informality. Given the limited alternative job opportunities available, particularly to those in lower-tier informal self-employment who often remain locked in a situation of inferior pay and conditions, specific policies that seek to enhance the livelihoods of workers in this most disadvantaged segment may be more relevant in the sub-Saharan context than policies that aim to reduce the regulatory barriers to formalization.
摘要尽管近几十年来经济快速增长,但在许多中低收入国家的劳动力市场上,非正规化仍然是一种持续存在的现象。这方面的一个关键问题涉及非正式本身在多大程度上是一种持久状态。本文利用加纳、南非、坦桑尼亚和乌干达的小组数据,提出了为数不多的在撒哈拉以南非洲背景下提供证据的分析之一。我们的研究结果揭示了在上层和下层非正规工人的过渡模式中观察到的重要程度的异质性。鉴于可供选择的工作机会有限,特别是那些从事低层次非正规自营职业的人,他们往往仍处于工资和条件较差的境地,在撒哈拉以南地区,寻求改善这一最弱势群体工人生计的具体政策可能比旨在减少正规化监管障碍的政策更具相关性。
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引用次数: 20
Temporary migration as a mechanism for lasting cultural change: evidence from Nepal 临时移民作为持久文化变革的机制:来自尼泊尔的证据
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.2478/izajodm-2021-0016
S. Janzen, Savannah Noray
Abstract When a husband migrates, his wife may control more household resources and therefore change how the household spends income. Given the prevalence of seasonal migration in developing countries, even these temporary changes could affect economic development. The extent to which these changes persist after migration spells will magnify these consequences. Using panel data on rural households in Nepal, we examine how a husband's migration interacts with intrahousehold decision-making and consumption patterns both during and after migration spells. We find that a husband's absence is associated with a 10 percentage point increase in the expenditure decisions over which the wife has full control. This coincides with a shift away from expenditures on alcohol and tobacco in favor of children's clothing and education. Importantly, we find that migrant husbands resume their role in decisions following their return, but decisions are more likely to be made jointly. These persistent effects are consistent with a model in which households are pushed to a new, more-equitable equilibrium and then are driven to form habits, which, in turn, cause the new equilibrium to stick, thus facilitating long-term cultural change in gender norms.
当丈夫外出务工时,妻子可以控制更多的家庭资源,从而改变家庭收入的使用方式。鉴于发展中国家普遍存在季节性移徙,即使是这些暂时的变化也可能影响经济发展。在移民期过后,这些变化持续的程度将放大这些后果。利用尼泊尔农村家庭的面板数据,我们研究了丈夫的迁移在迁移期间和之后如何与家庭内部决策和消费模式相互作用。我们发现,丈夫的缺席与妻子完全控制的支出决策增加10个百分点有关。与此同时,消费从烟酒转向儿童服装和教育。重要的是,我们发现移民丈夫在返回后恢复了他们在决策中的作用,但决策更有可能是共同做出的。这些持续的影响与一种模式是一致的,在这种模式中,家庭被推向一种新的、更公平的平衡,然后被驱使形成习惯,而这些习惯反过来又会使新的平衡保持下去,从而促进性别规范的长期文化变化。
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引用次数: 0
Gender gaps in education: The long view 教育中的性别差距:长远来看
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.2478/izajodm-2021-0001
David K. Evans, Maryam Akmal, Pamela Jakiela
Abstract Many countries remain far from achieving gender equality in the classroom. Using data from 126 countries, we characterize the evolution of gender gaps in low- and middle-income countries between 1960 and 2010. We document five facts. First, women are more educated today than 50 years ago in every country in the world. Second, they remain less educated than men in the vast majority of countries. Third, in many countries with low levels of education for both men and women in 1960, gender gaps widened as more boys went to school, then narrowed as girls enrolled; thus, gender gaps got worse before they got better. Fourth, gender gaps rarely persist in countries where boys attain high levels of education. Most countries with large, current gender gaps in educational attainment have low levels of male educational attainment, and many also perform poorly on other measures of development such as life expectancy and GDP per capita. Fifth, in the youngest cohorts, women have more education than men in some regions of the world. Although gender gaps in educational attainment are diminishing in most countries, the empirical evidence does not support the hypothesis that reducing the gender gap in schooling consistently leads to smaller gender gaps in labor force participation.
许多国家还远远没有在课堂上实现性别平等。利用来自126个国家的数据,我们描绘了1960年至2010年间低收入和中等收入国家性别差距的演变特征。我们记录了五个事实。首先,当今世界各国妇女的受教育程度都高于50年前。其次,在绝大多数国家,女性受教育程度仍然低于男性。第三,在许多1960年男女受教育程度都很低的国家,性别差距随着更多的男孩上学而扩大,然后随着女孩入学而缩小;因此,性别差距在改善之前变得更大。第四,在男孩接受高水平教育的国家,性别差距很少持续存在。目前在受教育程度上存在巨大性别差距的大多数国家,男性受教育程度都很低,而且许多国家在预期寿命和人均国内生产总值等其他发展指标上也表现不佳。第五,在最年轻的人群中,在世界某些地区,女性的受教育程度高于男性。尽管在大多数国家,受教育程度上的性别差距正在缩小,但经验证据并不支持这样一种假设,即不断缩小受教育程度上的性别差距,就会缩小劳动力参与方面的性别差距。
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引用次数: 60
Better together: Active and passive labor market policies in developed and developing economies 更好地合作:发达经济体和发展中经济体的主动和被动劳动力市场政策
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.2478/izajodm-2021-0009
C. Pignatti, Eva Van Belle
Abstract We investigate the macroeconomic impact of public expenditure in active labor market policies (ALMPs) and passive labor market policies (PLMPs) on main employment indicators (i.e., unemployment, employment, and labor force participation) for a large and novel panel database of 121 countries (36 developed, 64 emerging and 21 developing economies). Compared to previous studies, we include for the first time evidence from developing and emerging economies and explicitly examine the possible presence of complementarities between active and passive policies. We find that the interaction between interventions is crucial, as the effect of spending in either of the two policies is more favorable the more is spent on the other. Even the detrimental labor market effects of passive policies disappear on the condition that sufficient amounts are spent on active interventions. This complementarity seems even more important for emerging and developing economies.
摘要我们在一个由121个国家(36个发达经济体、64个新兴经济体和21个发展中经济体)组成的大型新颖面板数据库中,调查了积极劳动力市场政策(ALMP)和被动劳动力市场政策中公共支出对主要就业指标(即失业、就业和劳动力参与)的宏观经济影响。与以前的研究相比,我们首次纳入了来自发展中经济体和新兴经济体的证据,并明确研究了主动政策和被动政策之间可能存在的互补性。我们发现,干预措施之间的互动至关重要,因为这两项政策中的任何一项支出的效果都更有利,另一项支出越多。即使是被动政策对劳动力市场的不利影响,也要在积极干预上投入足够资金的情况下消失。这种互补性对新兴经济体和发展中经济体来说似乎更为重要。
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引用次数: 17
期刊
IZA Journal of Development and Migration
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