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A Simple Macrofiscal Model for Policy Analysis: An Application to Cambodia 一个用于政策分析的简单宏观财政模型:在柬埔寨的应用
Pub Date : 2020-09-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513556857.001.A001
D. Baksa, Aleš Bulíř, Dyna Heng
The paper describes a semistructural macrofiscal approach to simulating and forecasting macroeconomic policies. Our canonical model is adapted to Cambodia and we demonstrate its application with an illustrative scenario of macroeconomic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. Complemented with near-term forecasting tools and expert judgment, the dynamics of the model helps to inform policymakers about medium-term transmission channels and thus guide policy advice.
本文描述了一种模拟和预测宏观经济政策的半结构性宏观财政方法。我们的标准模型适用于柬埔寨,我们通过Covid-19大流行的宏观经济影响的说明性情景来演示其应用。与近期预测工具和专家判断相辅相成,该模型的动态有助于决策者了解中期传播渠道,从而指导政策建议。
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引用次数: 7
Did the Recognition of Operating Leases Cause a Decline in Equity Valuations? 经营租赁的确认是否导致了股权估值的下降?
Pub Date : 2020-08-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3509373
Jonathan A. Milian, E. Lee
We examine whether investors react to a significant change in balance sheets absent a significant change in underlying economics. Beginning in 2019, ASC 842 requires the recognition of operating leases, which were previously only disclosed in the footnotes. This change in accounting standard has no effect on firms' economics but results in firms with significant operating leases recognizing a considerable increase in debt. We find that firms with significant operating leases, on average, earn negative returns around the initial recognition of their operating leases. For example, firms in the top decile of operating lease intensity experience a mean abnormal return of -3.10% around their first quarter 2019 earnings announcements. Our results provide timely, new evidence consistent with equity market prices failing to reflect an adequate level of fundamental analysis.
我们考察投资者是否会对资产负债表的重大变化做出反应,而基本经济状况却没有发生重大变化。从2019年开始,ASC 842要求确认以前仅在脚注中披露的经营租赁。会计准则的这一变化对企业的经济状况没有影响,但会导致拥有大量经营租赁的企业确认债务的大幅增加。我们发现,拥有大量经营租赁的公司,平均而言,在其经营租赁初始确认前后获得负回报。例如,运营租赁强度最高的十分之一的公司在2019年第一季度财报公布前后的平均异常回报率为-3.10%。我们的研究结果及时提供了新的证据,证明股票市场价格未能充分反映基本面分析的水平。
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引用次数: 10
Credit Default Swaps and Corporate Debt Structure 信用违约互换和公司债务结构
Pub Date : 2020-08-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3170485
Yangyang Chen, W. Saffar, Chenyu Shan, Sarah Qian Wang
Credit default swaps (CDSs) are an effective tool to trade credit risk, and they can improve the corporate information environment. We find that firms use more public debt and less bank debt when CDSs reference their debt start trading. The results are robust to the endogeneity of CDS trading. Furthermore, the increase in public debt is concentrated in senior bonds and notes, which are the most common CDS reference assets. The effect of CDS trading is most pronounced when bond underwriters take a net selling CDS position and for informationally opaque firms. These findings suggest that the hedging and informational roles of CDSs have real effects on corporate debt structure.
信用违约互换(cds)是一种有效的信用风险交易工具,可以改善企业的信息环境。我们发现,当cds参考其债务开始交易时,企业使用更多的公共债务和更少的银行债务。结果对CDS交易的内生性具有鲁棒性。此外,公共债务的增加集中在优先债券和票据上,这是最常见的CDS参考资产。CDS交易的影响在债券承销商持有CDS净卖出头寸和信息不透明的公司时最为明显。这些发现表明,cds的套期保值和信息作用对企业债务结构具有真实的影响。
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引用次数: 3
The VIX Index and Volatility-Based Global Indexes and Trading Instruments - A Guide to Investment and Trading Features 波动率指数和基于波动率的全球指数和交易工具-投资和交易功能指南
Pub Date : 2020-08-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3668983
M. Moran, Berlinda Liu
During the past two decades, the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX® Index), a key measure of investor sentiment and 30-day future volatility expectations, has generated much investor attention because of its unique and powerful features. The introduction of VIX futures in 2004, VIX options in 2006, and other volatility-related trading instruments provided traders and investors access to exchange-traded vehicles for taking long and short exposures to expected S&P 500 Index volatility for a particular time frame. Certain VIX-related tradable products may provide benefits when used as tools for tail-risk hedging, diversification, risk management, or alpha generation. Gauges of expected stock market volatility for various regions include the VIX Index (United States), AXVI Index (Australia), VHSI Index (Hong Kong), NVIX Index (India) and VSTOXX Index (Europe). All five of these volatility indexes had negative correlations with their related stock indexes price movements, and all five volatility indexes rose more than 50% in 2008. Although the five volatility indexes are not investable, investors can explore VIX-based benchmark indexes that show the performance of hypothetical investment strategies using VIX futures or options. Before investing in volatility-related products, investors should closely study the pricing, roll cost, and volatility features of the tradable products and read the applicable prospectuses and risk disclosure statements.
在过去的二十年中,芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX®指数)是衡量投资者情绪和未来30天波动率预期的关键指标,因其独特而强大的功能而引起了投资者的广泛关注。2004年推出的波动率指数期货,2006年推出的波动率指数期权,以及其他与波动率相关的交易工具,为交易员和投资者提供了在交易所交易的工具,以便在特定时间框架内对标准普尔500指数的预期波动率进行多头和空头敞口。某些与vix相关的可交易产品在用作尾部风险对冲、多样化、风险管理或alpha生成的工具时可能会带来好处。不同地区的预期股市波动指标包括VIX指数(美国)、AXVI指数(澳大利亚)、VHSI指数(香港)、VIX指数(印度)和VSTOXX指数(欧洲)。这五个波动率指数都与其相关股指的价格变动呈负相关,2008年这五个波动率指数的涨幅都超过50%。虽然这五个波动率指数是不可投资的,但投资者可以探索基于波动率指数的基准指数,这些基准指数显示了使用波动率指数期货或期权的假设投资策略的表现。投资者在投资波动率相关产品前,应仔细研究可交易产品的定价、展期成本和波动率特征,并阅读适用的招股说明书和风险披露说明书。
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引用次数: 3
Corporate Social Responsibility and the Term Structure of CDS Spreads 企业社会责任与CDS价差期限结构
Pub Date : 2020-07-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3356165
Feng Gao, Yubin Li, Xinjie Wang, Z. Zhong
This paper examines the role of corporate social performance in the CDS market, with a focus on the differential effect conditional on the lengths of time horizons. We find that strong social performance is negatively associated with the slope of CDS term structure, by reducing the long-term credit risk and increasing the short-term credit risk. After controlling for credit ratings in a “path analysis”, we find that the direct effect of social performance remains significant, suggesting that CDS market participants incorporate this information more efficiently than credit rating agencies. Furthermore, the effects of social performance are stronger for firms with speculative-grade ratings, smaller size, or less analyst coverage.
本文考察了企业社会绩效在CDS市场中的作用,重点关注了时间跨度的差异效应。我们发现,强社会绩效与CDS期限结构斜率呈负相关,降低了长期信用风险,增加了短期信用风险。在“路径分析”中控制信用评级后,我们发现社会绩效的直接影响仍然显著,这表明CDS市场参与者比信用评级机构更有效地吸收了这些信息。此外,社会绩效的影响对具有投机级评级、规模较小或分析师覆盖面较少的公司更强。
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引用次数: 11
Manager Uncertainty and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns 经理人不确定性与股票收益横截面
Pub Date : 2020-07-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3654376
Tengfei Zhang
This paper evidences the explanatory power of managers’ uncertainty for cross-sectional stock returns. I introduce a novel measure of the degree of managers’ uncertain beliefs about future states: manager uncertainty (MU), defined as the count of the word “uncertainty” over the sum of the count of the word “uncertainty” and the count of the word “risk” in filings and conference calls. I find that manager’s level of uncertainty reveals valuation information about real options and thereby has significantly negative explanatory power for cross-sectional stock returns. Beyond existing market-based uncertainty measures, the manager uncertainty measure has incremental pricing power by capturing information frictions between managers’ reported uncertainty and investors’ perception of uncertainty. Moreover, a short-long portfolio sorted by manager uncertainty has a significantly positive premium and cannot be spanned by existing factor models. An application on COVID-19 uncertainty shows consistent results.
本文证明了经理人不确定性对横截面股票收益的解释力。我介绍了一种衡量管理者对未来状态的不确定信念程度的新方法:管理者不确定性(MU),定义为“不确定性”一词的计数除以文件和电话会议中“不确定性”一词的计数和“风险”一词的计数之和。我发现经理人的不确定性水平揭示了实物期权的估值信息,从而对横截面股票收益具有显著的负解释力。除了现有的基于市场的不确定性度量之外,管理者不确定性度量通过捕捉管理者报告的不确定性和投资者对不确定性的感知之间的信息摩擦,具有增量定价权。此外,根据经理人不确定性排序的短-长组合具有显著的正溢价,并且现有的因子模型无法跨越。对COVID-19不确定性的应用结果一致。
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引用次数: 1
Measuring Corporate Culture Using Machine Learning 用机器学习衡量企业文化
Pub Date : 2020-06-28 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.3256608
Kai Li, Feng Mai, R. Shen, Xinyan Yan
We create a culture dictionary using one of the latest machine learning techniques—the word embedding model—and 209,480 earnings call transcripts. We score the five corporate cultural values of innovation, integrity, quality, respect, and teamwork for 62,664 firm-year observations over the period 2001–2018. We show that an innovative culture is broader than the usual measures of corporate innovation – R&D expenses and the number of patents. Moreover, we show that corporate culture correlates with business outcomes, including operational efficiency, risk-taking, earnings management, executive compensation design, firm value, and deal making, and that the culture-performance link is more pronounced in bad times. Finally, we present suggestive evidence that corporate culture is shaped by major corporate events, such as mergers and acquisitions.
我们使用最新的机器学习技术之一——单词嵌入模型——和209480份财报电话会议记录创建了一个文化词典。我们对2001年至2018年期间62,664家公司的年度观察结果进行了评估,对创新、诚信、质量、尊重和团队合作这五种企业文化价值观进行了评分。我们表明,创新文化比企业创新的通常衡量标准——研发费用和专利数量——更为广泛。此外,我们还表明,企业文化与经营成果相关,包括运营效率、风险承担、盈余管理、高管薪酬设计、公司价值和交易达成,而且文化与绩效之间的联系在经济不景气时更为明显。最后,我们提出了具有启发性的证据,表明企业文化是由重大的企业事件(如兼并和收购)塑造的。
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引用次数: 204
The Separation of Voting and Control: The Role of Contract in Corporate Governance 表决权与控制权的分离:契约在公司治理中的作用
Pub Date : 2020-06-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3637204
G. Rauterberg
The default rules of corporate law make shareholders’ control rights a function of their voting power. Whether a director is elected or a merger is approved depends on how shareholders vote. Yet, in private corporations, shareholders routinely alter their rights by contract. This phenomenon of shareholder agreements—contracts among the owners of a firm—has received far less attention than it deserves, mainly because detailed data about the actual contents of shareholder agreements has been lacking. Private companies disclose little, and shareholder agreements are thought to play a trivial or nonexistent role in public companies. I show that this is false—15% of corporations that go public in recent years do so subject to a shareholder agreement. With this dataset in hand, I show the dramatic extent to which these shareholders redefine their control rights by contract. Shareholders restrict the sale of shares and waive aspects of the duty of loyalty. Above all, however, shareholders use their agreements to bargain with each other over votes for directors, and to bargain with the corporation itself for other control rights, such as vetoes over major corporate actions. In essence, while statutory corporate law makes control rights a function of voting power, shareholder agreements make control rights a function of contract instead, separating voting and control. Studying this phenomenon raises new questions of doctrine, theory, and empirics that go to foundational issues in corporate law. Is it desirable to let shareholders redesign corporate control rights wholesale by contract? What should be the law that governs their contracts when they do so? I provide a novel account of shareholder agreements’ use in public firms, before offering preliminary views on their welfare effects, implications for corporate theory, and on their governing law, which remains strikingly underdeveloped.
公司法的默认规则使股东的控制权成为其投票权的函数。无论是选举董事还是批准合并,都取决于股东如何投票。然而,在私营公司,股东通常会通过合同改变他们的权利。这种股东协议现象——公司所有者之间的契约——受到的关注远远不够,主要是因为缺乏有关股东协议实际内容的详细数据。私人公司很少披露信息,股东协议被认为在上市公司中起着微不足道或根本不存在的作用。我证明这是错误的——近年来,15%的上市公司都是根据股东协议上市的。有了这个数据集,我展示了这些股东通过合同重新定义控制权的戏剧性程度。股东限制出售股份,放弃忠诚义务的某些方面。然而,最重要的是,股东们利用他们的协议相互讨价还价,争夺董事的投票权,并与公司本身就其他控制权进行讨价还价,比如对重大公司行动的否决权。从本质上讲,法定公司法使控制权成为表决权的功能,而股东协议则使控制权成为合同的功能,将表决权和控制权分离开来。对这一现象的研究提出了关于公司法基础问题的学说、理论和经验的新问题。让股东通过合同批发方式重新设计公司控制权是否可取?当他们这样做时,应该用什么法律来管理他们的合同?我对股东协议在上市公司中的应用进行了新颖的描述,然后对其福利效应、对公司理论的影响以及其治理法律(这方面的研究仍明显不发达)提出了初步看法。
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引用次数: 4
Asset Productivity, Local information Diffusion, and Commercial Real Estate Returns 资产生产率、地方信息扩散与商业地产收益
Pub Date : 2020-06-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3628872
David C. Ling, Chongyu Wang, Tingyu Zhou
The geography of a firm’s assets is an important determinant of its investment decisions and productivity, which, in turn, drives stock returns. We construct a novel measure of the returns earned by private market investors in the metropolitan areas where each equity REIT owns properties. We then risk-adjust this geographically weighted proxy for each REIT’s property portfolio return (PPR) by regressing it against the sensitivity of the REIT’s returns to systematic risk factors. We find that this risk-adjusted property portfolio return (αPPR) predicts the cross-section of returns in the public REIT market, suggesting a slow diffusion of asset-level information into stock returns. Our findings also suggest it is the slow diffusion of information about “local” prices changes, not current rental income or local liquidity, that predicts REIT returns. Moreover, the αPPRs associated with REIT allocations to major “gateway” markets are more predictive of REIT returns than the property portfolio returns produced by allocations to secondary and tertiary markets. This study improves our understanding of the extent to which “local” information about the productivity of a firm’s assets is capitalized into stock prices and the speed at which it is capitalized. This study also contributes to the literature on the predictability of REIT returns and the relation between private and public CRE returns using firm-level, instead of index level, returns.
公司资产的地理位置是其投资决策和生产率的重要决定因素,而投资决策和生产率反过来又推动股票回报。我们构建了一个衡量大都市地区私人市场投资者收益的新方法,其中每个股权REIT都拥有物业。然后,我们通过对REIT回报对系统风险因素的敏感性进行回归,对每个REIT的房地产投资组合回报(PPR)的地理加权代理进行风险调整。我们发现,风险调整后的房地产投资组合收益(αPPR)预测了公开房地产投资信托基金市场的收益横截面,表明资产水平信息扩散到股票收益的速度较慢。我们的研究结果还表明,预测房地产投资信托基金回报的是“当地”价格变化信息的缓慢传播,而不是当前租金收入或当地流动性。此外,与房地产投资信托基金配置到主要“门户”市场相关的α ppr比配置到二级和三级市场产生的房地产投资组合回报更能预测房地产投资信托基金的回报。这项研究提高了我们对公司资产生产率的“本地”信息在多大程度上被资本化为股票价格以及资本化的速度的理解。本研究也有助于研究REIT收益的可预测性以及使用公司水平而非指数水平回报的私有和公共CRE收益之间关系的文献。
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引用次数: 21
Venture Capital's Role in Financing Innovation: What We Know and How Much We Still Need to Learn 风险投资在融资创新中的作用:我们知道什么以及我们还需要学习多少
Pub Date : 2020-06-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3633054
Josh Lerner, Ramana Nanda
Venture capital is associated with some of the most high-growth and influential firms in the world. Academics and practitioners have effectively articulated the strengths of the venture model. At the same time, venture capital financing also has real limitations in its ability to advance substantial technological change. Three issues are particularly concerning to us: 1) the very narrow band of technological innovations that fit the requirements of institutional venture capital investors; 2) the relatively small number of venture capital investors who hold and shape the direction of a substantial fraction of capital that is deployed into financing radical technological change; and 3) the relaxation in recent years of the intense emphasis on corporate governance by venture capital firms. While our ability to assess the social welfare impact of venture capital remains nascent, we hope that this article will stimulate discussion of and research into these questions.
风险投资与世界上一些最具高增长和影响力的公司联系在一起。学者和实践者已经有效地阐述了风险投资模式的优势。与此同时,风险资本融资在推动重大技术变革方面也有实际的局限性。我们特别关注三个问题:1)符合机构风险资本投资者要求的技术创新范围非常狭窄;2)相对较少的风险资本投资者持有并塑造了用于资助激进技术变革的相当一部分资本的方向;三是近年来风险投资公司对公司治理的高度重视有所放松。虽然我们评估风险资本的社会福利影响的能力仍处于初级阶段,但我们希望本文将激发对这些问题的讨论和研究。
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引用次数: 7
期刊
SPGMI: Capital IQ Data (Topic)
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