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The Economic Effects of Private Equity Buyouts 私募股权收购的经济效应
Pub Date : 2019-10-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3465723
S. Davis, J. Haltiwanger, Kyle Handley, Ben Lipsius, J. Lerner, Javier Miranda
We examine thousands of U.S. private equity (PE) buyouts from 1980 to 2013, a period that saw huge swings in credit market tightness and GDP growth. Our results show striking, systematic differences in the real-side effects of PE buyouts, depending on buyout type and external conditions. Employment at target firms shrinks 13% over two years in buyouts of publicly listed firms but expands 13% in buyouts of privately held firms, both relative to contemporaneous outcomes at control firms. Labor productivity rises 8% at targets over two years post buyout (again, relative to controls), with large gains for both public-to-private and private-to-private buyouts. Target productivity gains are larger yet for deals executed amidst tight credit conditions. A post-buyout widening of credit spreads or slowdown in GDP growth lowers employment growth at targets and sharply curtails productivity gains in public-to-private and divisional buyouts. Average earnings per worker fall by 1.7% at target firms after buyouts, largely erasing a pre-buyout wage premium relative to controls. Wage effects are also heterogeneous. In these and other respects, the economic effects of private equity vary greatly by buyout type and with external conditions.
我们研究了1980年至2013年期间数千起美国私募股权(PE)收购交易,这一时期信贷市场紧缩和GDP增长都出现了巨大波动。我们的研究结果显示,根据收购类型和外部条件的不同,私募股权收购的实际副作用存在显著的系统性差异。在收购上市公司的过程中,目标公司的就业人数在两年内减少了13%,但在收购私人控股公司的过程中,目标公司的就业人数增加了13%,两者都与控股公司同期的结果有关。在收购后的两年内,劳动生产率按目标提高8%(同样,相对于控制),公私收购和公私收购都有很大的增长。在信贷紧缩的情况下执行的交易的目标生产率增幅更大。收购后信贷息差扩大或GDP增长放缓会降低目标就业增长,并大幅削减公私收购和部门收购的生产率增长。收购后,目标公司员工的平均收入下降了1.7%,这在很大程度上抵消了收购前相对于控制公司的工资溢价。工资的影响也各不相同。在这些和其他方面,私人股本的经济影响因收购类型和外部条件而有很大差异。
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引用次数: 26
The BoC-BoE Sovereign Default Database: What’s New In 2019? 中国央行-英国央行主权违约数据库:2019年有什么新动向?
Pub Date : 2019-09-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3460540
D. Beers, Patrisha de Leon-Manlagnit
Until recently, few efforts have been made to systematically measure and aggregate the nominal value of the different types of sovereign government debt in default. To help fill this gap, the Bank of Canada (BoC) developed a comprehensive database of sovereign defaults that is posted on its website and updated in partnership with the Bank of England (BoE). Our database draws on previously published datasets compiled by various public and private sector sources. It combines elements of these, together with new information, to develop comprehensive estimates of stocks of government obligations in default. These include bonds and other marketable securities, bank loans and official loans, valued in US dollars, for the years 1960 to 2018 on both a country-by-country and a global basis. This update of the BoC-BoE database, and future updates, will be useful to researchers analyzing the economic and financial effects of individual sovereign defaults and, importantly, the impact on global financial stability of episodes involving multiple sovereign defaults.
直到最近,人们还很少系统性地衡量和汇总不同类型违约主权政府债务的名义价值。为了填补这一空白,加拿大银行(BoC)开发了一个全面的主权违约数据库,该数据库发布在其网站上,并与英国央行(BoE)合作更新。我们的数据库借鉴了以前公布的由各种公共和私营部门来源汇编的数据集。它将这些要素与新的信息结合起来,对违约政府债务存量作出全面估计。这些包括1960年至2018年各国和全球以美元计价的债券和其他有价证券、银行贷款和官方贷款。此次中国央行-英国央行数据库的更新以及未来的更新,将有助于研究人员分析单个主权违约对经济和金融的影响,更重要的是,分析涉及多个主权违约事件对全球金融稳定的影响。
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引用次数: 12
Liquidity Transformation Risks in U.S. Bank Loan and High-Yield Mutual Funds 美国银行贷款和高收益共同基金的流动性转换风险
Pub Date : 2019-08-09 DOI: 10.17016/2380-7172.2412
Kenechukwu Anadu, F. Cai
Assessing liquidity transformation risks in MFs is difficult, largely due to a lack of detailed data on fund assets’ liquidity. In this note, we identify some indicators of funds’ liquidity profiles, and examine them in a sample of bank loan (BL, also referred to as “leveraged loans”) and high-yield corporate bond (HY) MFs, which invest in relatively illiquid and riskier assets and, thus, for which vulnerabilities associated with liquidity transformation are generally most salient. We find that the ten largest BL MFs have increased their holdings of the hardest-to-value, generally most illiquid assets over the past decade. Moreover, the average fraction of liquid assets (by our measure) to total assets held by BL MFs have held relatively stable over the same period. This combination of rising hard-to-value, illiquid holdings amid generally stable liquid holdings might indicate rising liquidity risks. We also find that the ten largest HY MFs’ relative holdings of the hardest-to-value assets declined modestly in recent years, and liquid assets have held relatively stable, although the range has widened.
评估基金公司的流动性转换风险是困难的,主要原因是缺乏有关基金资产流动性的详细数据。在本文中,我们确定了基金流动性概况的一些指标,并在银行贷款(BL,也称为“杠杆贷款”)和高收益公司债券(HY)基金的样本中进行了检查,这些基金投资于相对非流动性和风险较高的资产,因此,与流动性转换相关的脆弱性通常最为突出。我们发现,在过去十年中,十大BL基金公司增持了最难估值、通常是流动性最差的资产。此外,流动资产占BL mf持有总资产的平均比例(根据我们的衡量)在同一时期保持相对稳定。难以估值的非流动性资产不断增加,而流动性资产总体稳定,这种组合可能表明流动性风险正在上升。我们还发现,近年来十大高净值基金对最难估值资产的相对持有量略有下降,流动资产保持相对稳定,尽管范围有所扩大。
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引用次数: 4
China: From Imitator to Innovator? 中国:从模仿者到创新者?
Pub Date : 2019-08-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2846428
F. Zhan, J. Proelss, D. Schweizer
For a long time, China was viewed as the world's “workbench,” rather than as a global innovator. However, recently, China undertook significant efforts to transform towards a research and innovation orientation, by, e.g., setting research goals in its 12th Five-Year Plan that established a Chinese National Patent Development Strategy. In this paper, we examine the effects of that government policy change and assess how it has impacted firm innovation. To address potential endogeneity concerns, we use the policy change as a quasi-natural experiment, and explain the exogenously caused variations. We also use a “difference-in-differences” approach to, e.g., propensity score matched U.S. peers, and find that the policy change had a positive effect on Chinese firms’ research spending, as measured by research intensity. We also show that Chinese firms increased their research spending in response to the strategic shift by the government in 2008, relatively outpacing their U.S. peers during the same time period. However, Chinese companies have not yet overtaken their U.S. peers. Rather, they have reduced the gaps between them.
在很长一段时间里,中国被视为世界的“工作台”,而不是全球创新者。然而,最近,中国在向研究和创新方向转变方面做出了重大努力,例如在“十二五”规划中制定了研究目标,并制定了中国国家专利发展战略。在本文中,我们考察了政府政策变化的影响,并评估了它如何影响企业创新。为了解决潜在的内生性问题,我们将政策变化作为准自然实验,并解释外生引起的变化。我们还使用了“差异中的差异”方法,例如,倾向得分匹配美国同行,并发现政策变化对中国公司的研究支出有积极影响,如研究强度测量。我们还发现,中国企业在2008年为响应政府的战略转变而增加了研究支出,在同一时期相对超过了美国同行。然而,中国企业尚未超过美国同行。相反,它们缩小了它们之间的差距。
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引用次数: 6
Financial Journalism and Quarterly Earnings Guidance 金融新闻和季度盈利指导
Pub Date : 2019-08-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3432334
Jihun Bae, Robin Litjens, Yachang Zeng
Financial journalists have two countervailing incentives when reporting on a firm’s quarterly earnings guidance. On the one hand, their explicit incentive to attract readership leads them to express discrepant views that deviate from the guidance news managers intend to deliver. We hypothesize that journalists’ tendency to express discrepant views induces managers to stop issuing guidance because it leads to greater investor response uncertainty and, in turn, nondisclosure in equilibrium (media framing hypothesis). On the other hand, financial journalists have implicit quid pro quo incentives to curry favor with managers in exchange for information access or advertising revenue. Their coverage of guidance news would reinforce the intended guidance message and have no incremental impact on future guidance decisions (media reinforcing hypothesis). Using a comprehensive dataset of financial journalists’ articles covering quarterly earnings guidance, we find evidence supporting the media framing hypothesis. Our study provides fresh insight into the information flow in financial markets. We document evidence that the media, through the effect of its discrepant views, curtails the likelihood of managers issuing earnings guidance.
金融记者在报道一家公司的季度盈利指引时,有两个相互抵消的动机。一方面,他们吸引读者的明确动机导致他们表达与新闻管理者意图传递的指导背道而驰的观点。我们假设,记者表达不同观点的倾向导致管理者停止发布指导意见,因为这导致投资者反应的不确定性更大,进而导致不披露均衡(媒体框架假设)。另一方面,财经记者也有暗含的交换动机,为了获取信息或广告收入而讨好管理者。他们对指导新闻的报道将强化预期的指导信息,对未来的指导决策没有增量影响(媒体强化假设)。使用涵盖季度盈利指引的金融记者文章的综合数据集,我们找到了支持媒体框架假说的证据。我们的研究为金融市场的信息流提供了新的视角。我们记录的证据表明,媒体通过其不同观点的影响,降低了经理人发布盈利指引的可能性。
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引用次数: 1
Firm Listing Status and the Investment Home Bias 企业上市状况与投资归国倾向
Pub Date : 2019-07-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3426143
Casey Dougal, Daniel A. Rettl
Abstract Are public firm investment rates more sensitive than private firm rates to new investment opportunities? We offer a new explanation for differences in public and private firm investment sensitivities: investment sensitivities differ because the type of investments favored by firms varies with their listing status. Specifically, we consider the geography of investment opportunities and find that private firms have a much stronger investment home-bias than similar public firms which makes their investment decisions more sensitive to local investment opportunities than public firms. Controlling for local investment opportunities explains four-fifths of the differential sensitivity between public and private firms not explained by more traditional measures of investment opportunities.
对于新的投资机会,上市公司的投资率是否比私人公司的投资率更敏感?我们对上市公司和民营公司投资敏感性的差异提供了一种新的解释:投资敏感性的不同是因为上市公司所青睐的投资类型不同。具体来说,我们考虑了投资机会的地理位置,发现私营公司比类似的上市公司有更强的投资本土偏好,这使得它们的投资决策比上市公司对当地投资机会更敏感。对当地投资机会的控制解释了五分之四的上市公司和私营公司之间的敏感性差异,这些差异无法用更传统的投资机会衡量标准来解释。
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引用次数: 1
La proiezione internazionale della Cina nell'era di Xi Jinping [China’s International Projection in the Xi Jinping’s Era]
Pub Date : 2019-07-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3446740
L. Bencivelli, Flavia Tonelli, Alberto Coco, Raffaele De Marchi, A. Furgeri, maurizio ghirga, Pietro Ginefra, Alessandro Giraudo, S. Iezzi, S. Longoni, Giovanni Majnoni d'Intignano, D. Marconi, Anna Marra, I. Musu, Elisa Sales, Raffaele Tartaglia Polcini, G. Trebeschi, A. Zanotti, A. Zucchini
Italian Abstract: Dall’inizio della sua presidenza, Xi Jinping ha progressivamente riorientato la politica estera al fine di meglio proteggere gli interessi cinesi nel mondo. A questo fine, Pechino ha significativamente aumentato la propria esposizione internazionale su vari fronti, alternando spesso approcci assertivi con altri piu cooperativi, ai quali si associa la proposta di un “modello alternativo” di cooperazione economica mondiale. La proiezione esterna dell’economia cinese ha continuato a crescere e a diversificarsi, come si desume dall’andamento della quota delle esportazioni, dalla loro composizione (oggi caratterizzate da maggiore valore aggiunto che in passato), dall’ammontare di investimenti esteri e di linee di credito internazionali accordate da istituti finanziari cinesi. Questa evoluzione si confronta con l’incompiutezza della trasformazione della Cina in economia di mercato, evidente nel perdurante ruolo dello Stato nell’indirizzare le decisioni economiche (anche attraverso la leva delle imprese e delle banche di proprieta pubblica), fonte di crescenti tensioni con i maggiori partner commerciali. English Abstract: [Since the beginning of his presidency, Xi Jinping has progressively redirected foreign policy in order to better protect Chinese interests around the world. To this end, Beijing has significantly increased its international exposure on various fronts, often combining assertive approaches with more cooperative ones, among them the proposal of an "alternative model" of world economic cooperation. The external projection of the Chinese economy has continued to grow and diversify, as can be seen from the trend in exports, their composition (today characterized by greater added value than in the past), the amount of foreign investments and the credit granted by Chinese financial institutions to foreign borrowers. This evolution faces up to the incompleteness of China’s transformation into a market economy, evident in the ongoing role of the State in directing economic decisions (also through the lever of companies and public-owned banks), a source of growing tensions with its major trading partners.]
为此目的,北京在许多方面大大增加了其国际影响力,经常与更合作的“替代模式”相结合,并提出了一种全球经济合作的“替代模式”。中国外部经济继续增长和多样化,出口份额的趋势可以看出,他们的特点(今天组成更大的附加值,在过去),外国直接投资数量和中国金融机构的国际信贷额度。这一发展与中国向市场经济转型的不完善有关,这一点从中国政府在指导经济决策方面(包括通过企业和国有银行的杠杆)的持续作用中可以明显看出,这是中国与主要贸易伙伴关系日益紧张的根源。到目前为止,北京已经大大增加了它在不同方面的国际曝光,十种坚定地结合了更多的合作伙伴的方法,其中许多是世界经济合作的“替代模式”。中国经济的外部预测继续增长和多样化,可以从出口趋势、外国投资流动和中国金融机构向外国borrowers提供的大量信贷中看到。这一演变导致了中国向市场经济转型的不完善,反映在美国正通过其主要贸易伙伴的公司和公共所有权银行的杠杆作用,造成越来越大的压力。
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引用次数: 0
Private Deposit Insurance, Deposit Flows, and Bank Lending 私人存款保险、存款流动和银行贷款
Pub Date : 2019-06-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3436040
Piotr Danisewicz, chun hei lee, K. Schaeck
We examine the role of private deposit insurance for deposit flows and bank lending during a financial crisis. Exploiting the availability of private deposit insurance to banks in Massachusetts, we show that banks whose deposits are privately insured experience greater deposit inflows and expand lending during the recent crisis, in contrast to banks whose deposits are only federally insured. The deposit inflows are particularly pronounced prior to the increase of the federal deposit insurance limit and the introduction of the Transaction Account Guarantee Program. Our results highlight the complementary role of private sector solutions for the regulatory framework in banking.
我们研究了金融危机期间私人存款保险对存款流动和银行贷款的作用。利用马萨诸塞州银行私人存款保险的可用性,我们表明,与存款只有联邦保险的银行相比,存款由私人保险的银行在最近的危机中经历了更多的存款流入和扩大贷款。在提高联邦存款保险限额和引入交易账户担保计划之前,存款流入尤其明显。我们的研究结果强调了私营部门解决方案对银行业监管框架的补充作用。
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引用次数: 1
Engineering Value: The Returns to Technological Talent and Investments in Artificial Intelligence 工程价值:技术人才和人工智能投资的回报
Pub Date : 2019-05-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3427412
Daniel Rock
Engineers, as implementers of technology, are highly complementary to the intangible knowledge assets that firms accumulate. This paper seeks to address whether technical talent is a source of rents for corporate employers, both in general and in the specific case of the surprising open-source launch of TensorFlow, a deep learning software package, by Google. First, I present a simple model of how employers can use job design as a tool to exercise monopsony power by partially allocating employee time to firm-specific tasks. Then, using over 180 million position records and over 52 million skill records from LinkedIn, I build a panel of firm-level investment in technological human capital (information technology, research, and engineering talent quantities) to measure the market value of technological talent. I find that on average, an additional engineer at a firm is correlated with approximately $854,000 more market value. Firm fixed effects and instrumental variables analyses provide mixed evidence on the marginal causal value of engineers in general. Specifically for AI talent, the value of engineering skills is clearer. AI skills are strongly correlated with market value, though variation in AI skills from 2014-2017 does not explain contemporaneous revenue productivity within firms. AI-intensive companies rapidly gained market value following the launch of TensorFlow, while companies with opportunities to automate relatively larger quantities of labor with machine learning did not. Using a differencein- differences approach, I show that the TensorFlow launch is associated with an approximate market value increase of 4-7% for AI-using firms. Firms outside the top quintile of AI use (as measured by skill counts on LinkedIn) grow by approximately $3.56 million for a 1% increase in AI skill. AI superstar firms in the top quintile also appear to benefit, but show pre-trends in market value growth.
工程师作为技术的实施者,与企业积累的无形知识资产具有很强的互补性。本文试图解决技术人才是否是企业雇主的租金来源,无论是在一般情况下,还是在谷歌令人惊讶的开源推出TensorFlow(一个深度学习软件包)的具体案例中。首先,我提出了一个简单的模型,说明雇主如何利用工作设计作为一种工具,通过将员工的部分时间分配给公司特定的任务来行使垄断权力。然后,利用LinkedIn上超过1.8亿条职位记录和超过5200万条技能记录,我建立了一个企业层面的技术人力资本投资面板(信息技术、研究和工程人才数量),以衡量技术人才的市场价值。我发现,平均而言,一家公司增加一名工程师,其市场价值就会增加约85.4万美元。固定效应和工具变量分析对工程师的边际因果值提供了混合证据。特别是对于人工智能人才来说,工程技能的价值更加清晰。人工智能技能与市场价值密切相关,尽管2014-2017年人工智能技能的变化并不能解释企业同期的收入生产率。在TensorFlow推出后,人工智能密集型公司迅速获得了市场价值,而那些有机会通过机器学习实现相对大量劳动力自动化的公司却没有。使用差异中的差异方法,我表明,对于使用人工智能的公司来说,TensorFlow的推出与大约4-7%的市场价值增长有关。人工智能使用排名前五分之一的公司(以LinkedIn上的技能数量衡量)每增加1%的人工智能技能,就会增长约356万美元。排名前五分之一的人工智能超级明星公司似乎也从中受益,但在市值增长方面表现出超前趋势。
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引用次数: 46
Moderating Effect of Economic Instability in the Relationship between Concentration of Control and Market Value: Empirical Evidence in Latin America 经济不稳定性对控制权集中度与市场价值关系的调节作用:拉丁美洲的经验证据
Pub Date : 2019-04-16 DOI: 10.15728/BBR.2019.16.4.6
D. Viana, D. Caixe, V. Ponte
This paper investigates the moderating effect of economic instability in the relationship between the concentration of control and market value of firms. For this purpose, we built an unbalanced panel dataset composed of 341 Latin American companies from six countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru. The results of the dynamic models, estimated using the systemic generalized method of moments, indicate, in general, that concentration of control only reduces the market value of firms in environments with high economic instability. Thus, this study provides empirical evidence that times of economic instability encourage controlling shareholders to act even more strongly in their own interests, which may result in the expropriation of the wealth of smaller shareholders.
本文考察了经济不稳定性在控制权集中与企业市场价值关系中的调节作用。为此,我们建立了一个非平衡面板数据集,由来自六个国家的341家拉丁美洲公司组成:阿根廷、巴西、智利、哥伦比亚、墨西哥和秘鲁。使用系统广义矩量法估计的动态模型的结果表明,通常情况下,控制权集中只会降低经济高度不稳定环境中企业的市场价值。因此,本研究提供了经验证据,表明经济不稳定时期会鼓励控股股东更强烈地为自己的利益行事,这可能导致小股东的财富被剥夺。
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引用次数: 3
期刊
SPGMI: Capital IQ Data (Topic)
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