Pub Date : 2023-06-01DOI: 10.13060/23362839.2023.10.1.551
J. Kazak, Natalia Kłysz, J. Kamińska
Many aspects of the global economy changed during the Covid-19 pandemic, including the real estate market. This study examines the primary residential property market in Opole during the Covid-19 pandemic. It uses property transaction data from 2018 to 2021 to conduct statistical analyses and independent group tests and also takes into account the real-estate price trend from 2014 to 2020. The study finds that both property prices and preferences relating to the structure and location of housing changed during the pandemic. In the case of Opole, the number of transactions involving residential units in the primary market increased in 2020 compared to previous years. After adjusting the unit price value of residential properties for the trend in the pre-pandemic period, the study finds that there was also an increase in property transaction prices. The study confirms three important facts relating to phenomena that are occurring globally in cities today. First, local communities are more diverse in terms of the economic heterogeneity of real estate buyers. Second, unlike big urban areas, small cities may be more resistant to the process of citizens migrating to suburban areas, thereby limiting the negative phenomenon of urban sprawl. Third, the housing real estate market in small cities is considered a reliable form of investment of assets, as real estate prices increased during the Covid-19 pandemic.
{"title":"Housing Market in Central European City during the COVID-19 Pandemic","authors":"J. Kazak, Natalia Kłysz, J. Kamińska","doi":"10.13060/23362839.2023.10.1.551","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13060/23362839.2023.10.1.551","url":null,"abstract":"Many aspects of the global economy changed during the Covid-19 pandemic, including the real estate market. This study examines the primary residential property market in Opole during the Covid-19 pandemic. It uses property transaction data from 2018 to 2021 to conduct statistical analyses and independent group tests and also takes into account the real-estate price trend from 2014 to 2020. The study finds that both property prices and preferences relating to the structure and location of housing changed during the pandemic. In the case of Opole, the number of transactions involving residential units in the primary market increased in 2020 compared to previous years. After adjusting the unit price value of residential properties for the trend in the pre-pandemic period, the study finds that there was also an increase in property transaction prices. The study confirms three important facts relating to phenomena that are occurring globally in cities today. First, local communities are more diverse in terms of the economic heterogeneity of real estate buyers. Second, unlike big urban areas, small cities may be more resistant to the process of citizens migrating to suburban areas, thereby limiting the negative phenomenon of urban sprawl. Third, the housing real estate market in small cities is considered a reliable form of investment of assets, as real estate prices increased during the Covid-19 pandemic.","PeriodicalId":37598,"journal":{"name":"Critical Housing Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43332530","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-12-26DOI: 10.13060/23362839.2022.9.2.546
Emmanuel Kabundu, Sijekula Mbanga, B. Botha, G. Crafford
The adoption of innovative building technologies (IBTs) and social welfare policies in South Africa has facilitated an increase in decent homeownership among low-income groups, thus improving their quality of life. However, due to the escalating costs of building materials, the capital and lifecycle costs of implementing these technologies may no longer be affordable. This research aims to provide a comparative evaluation of the affordability of some readily available IBTs in the South African construction industry, relative to existing homeownership subsidy grants. The method used involved the use of secondary data for these IBTs and the income constraint methods. The results showed that, apart from the technologies suitable for the provision of temporary structures, most of the other technologies were not affordable for the complete subsidisation of the top structure when both capital and lifecycle costs were used, except the Moladi and Robust structure IBTs under some low-income homeownership programmes. Further analysis using credit-linked subsidies revealed that the minimum household income required to achieve affordable homeownership (and their rankings) depends both on the evaluation technique (lifecycle or capital costs) and technology used. To improve affordability, any implementing government can either raise the amount of the top structure subsidy grant, promote the use of cheaper but durable IBTs, or promote the use in incremental building methods, such as the Enhanced People’s Housing Process (EPHP) for the case of South Africa.
{"title":"Housing Quantum and Innovative Building Systems in South Africa – the Affordability Perspective for 2020","authors":"Emmanuel Kabundu, Sijekula Mbanga, B. Botha, G. Crafford","doi":"10.13060/23362839.2022.9.2.546","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13060/23362839.2022.9.2.546","url":null,"abstract":"The adoption of innovative building technologies (IBTs) and social welfare policies in South Africa has facilitated an increase in decent homeownership among low-income groups, thus improving their quality of life. However, due to the escalating costs of building materials, the capital and lifecycle costs of implementing these technologies may no longer be affordable. This research aims to provide a comparative evaluation of the affordability of some readily available IBTs in the South African construction industry, relative to existing homeownership subsidy grants. The method used involved the use of secondary data for these IBTs and the income constraint methods. The results showed that, apart from the technologies suitable for the provision of temporary structures, most of the other technologies were not affordable for the complete subsidisation of the top structure when both capital and lifecycle costs were used, except the Moladi and Robust structure IBTs under some low-income homeownership programmes. Further analysis using credit-linked subsidies revealed that the minimum household income required to achieve affordable homeownership (and their rankings) depends both on the evaluation technique (lifecycle or capital costs) and technology used. To improve affordability, any implementing government can either raise the amount of the top structure subsidy grant, promote the use of cheaper but durable IBTs, or promote the use in incremental building methods, such as the Enhanced People’s Housing Process (EPHP) for the case of South Africa.","PeriodicalId":37598,"journal":{"name":"Critical Housing Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42423740","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-12-26DOI: 10.13060/23362839.2022.9.2.545
A. Watson
Significant growth in Scotland’s private rented sector over the last 25 years has been led by a large number of individual lay investors/landlords who each own a smattering of properties. These characteristics, which are replicated in several countries where neoliberal housing policies prevail, have implications for the efficacy of PRS investments, but also for conditions and the stability of investment patterns within the sector. This study examines landlord investment risk awareness and behaviours via qualitative interviews with a small sample of Scottish landlords operating at the ‘bottom end’ of the market, which is disproportionately home to vulnerable groups and where some investment risks are believed to be more acute. The findings suggest that some landlords have relatively low levels of risk awareness, fail to adequately consider risk prior to investing in the PRS, have mixed success in selecting and implementing risk management and mitigation strategies, and incur significant risk-borne costs, which can limit returns.
{"title":"Diving in at the ‘Bottom End’: The Risk Awareness and Risk Management Practices of Sub £65K Landlords","authors":"A. Watson","doi":"10.13060/23362839.2022.9.2.545","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13060/23362839.2022.9.2.545","url":null,"abstract":"Significant growth in Scotland’s private rented sector over the last 25 years has been led by a large number of individual lay investors/landlords who each own a smattering of properties. These characteristics, which are replicated in several countries where neoliberal housing policies prevail, have implications for the efficacy of PRS investments, but also for conditions and the stability of investment patterns within the sector. This study examines landlord investment risk awareness and behaviours via qualitative interviews with a small sample of Scottish landlords operating at the ‘bottom end’ of the market, which is disproportionately home to vulnerable groups and where some investment risks are believed to be more acute. The findings suggest that some landlords have relatively low levels of risk awareness, fail to adequately consider risk prior to investing in the PRS, have mixed success in selecting and implementing risk management and mitigation strategies, and incur significant risk-borne costs, which can limit returns.","PeriodicalId":37598,"journal":{"name":"Critical Housing Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47252006","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-12-26DOI: 10.13060/23362839.2022.9.2.547
Konrad Żelazowski, Ewa Kucharska-Stasiak, Anna Mikłaszewska, Beata Wieteska-Rosiak
The level of satisfaction that households have with their housing is important for people to function properly, as it largely determines their life satisfaction. Housing satisfaction is a multidimensional concept that can be defined, measured, and analysed in various ways. The aim of the article is to identify the housing satisfaction of Polish households in terms of living space, housing standard, and housing expenses, and to identify the main determinants of housing satisfaction. Factors that have a major impact on housing satisfaction are classified based on a literature review. The sources of Poles’ housing satisfaction are identified using ordered logistic regression. This article is one of the first attempts to analyse housing satisfaction in a post-socialist Central and Eastern European economy.
{"title":"The Housing Satisfaction of Polish Households and Its Determinants","authors":"Konrad Żelazowski, Ewa Kucharska-Stasiak, Anna Mikłaszewska, Beata Wieteska-Rosiak","doi":"10.13060/23362839.2022.9.2.547","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13060/23362839.2022.9.2.547","url":null,"abstract":"The level of satisfaction that households have with their housing is important for people to function properly, as it largely determines their life satisfaction. Housing satisfaction is a multidimensional concept that can be defined, measured, and analysed in various ways. The aim of the article is to identify the housing satisfaction of Polish households in terms of living space, housing standard, and housing expenses, and to identify the main determinants of housing satisfaction. Factors that have a major impact on housing satisfaction are classified based on a literature review. The sources of Poles’ housing satisfaction are identified using ordered logistic regression. This article is one of the first attempts to analyse housing satisfaction in a post-socialist Central and Eastern European economy.","PeriodicalId":37598,"journal":{"name":"Critical Housing Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44056805","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-12-26DOI: 10.13060/23362839.2022.9.2.548
I. Costarelli
The residualisation of social housing sectors requires housing managers to intensify social management activities aimed at promoting tenants’ wellbeing and social cohesion. This paper discusses the implementation of such activities in the Italian public housing sector. It juxtaposes the vision conceptualised at the policy level with the daily activities of housing managers in practice on the ground and highlights the gaps between policy goals and realities of tenants’ involvement. While social management activities are expected to contribute to breaking the vicious circle of financial, technical, and social decline that has long affected public housing estates, the short timeframe of the planned interventions raises the question of the potential for structural change.
{"title":"‘The Social Managers Are Back in Town’: the Challenges of Housing Management in a Residualised Public Housing Sector","authors":"I. Costarelli","doi":"10.13060/23362839.2022.9.2.548","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13060/23362839.2022.9.2.548","url":null,"abstract":"The residualisation of social housing sectors requires housing managers to intensify social management activities aimed at promoting tenants’ wellbeing and social cohesion. This paper discusses the implementation of such activities in the Italian public housing sector. It juxtaposes the vision conceptualised at the policy level with the daily activities of housing managers in practice on the ground and highlights the gaps between policy goals and realities of tenants’ involvement. While social management activities are expected to contribute to breaking the vicious circle of financial, technical, and social decline that has long affected public housing estates, the short timeframe of the planned interventions raises the question of the potential for structural change.","PeriodicalId":37598,"journal":{"name":"Critical Housing Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66170763","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.13060/23362839.2022.9.1.537
Jörg J. Dötsch, Tamás Ginter
This paper develops some analytical perspectives for a proper assessment of the dynamics observed on the Hungarian residential property market over the last decade. These dynamics are examined in comparison to official policy objectives. On the one hand, sustainable development and social balance were particularly urgent issues after the last financial crisis. On the other, the residential property market was officially instrumentalised to achieve them. We examined real estate market processes using data from the Hungarian Central Statistical Office and found a change in investment motives and in the main groups of actors dominant in the market, and we also examined the role of foreign investment. At the aggregate national level, the past decade looks like a process of recovery. Nonetheless, the factors relevant for the observable dynamics do not seem to correspond to the goals also formulated in the new constitution, but rather document the investment fever of certain groups.
{"title":"Sustainable Recovery? Deciphering Hungary’s Residential Property Market before the Pandemic","authors":"Jörg J. Dötsch, Tamás Ginter","doi":"10.13060/23362839.2022.9.1.537","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13060/23362839.2022.9.1.537","url":null,"abstract":"This paper develops some analytical perspectives for a proper assessment of the dynamics observed on the Hungarian residential property market over the last decade. These dynamics are examined in comparison to official policy objectives. On the one hand, sustainable development and social balance were particularly urgent issues after the last financial crisis. On the other, the residential property market was officially instrumentalised to achieve them. We examined real estate market processes using data from the Hungarian Central Statistical Office and found a change in investment motives and in the main groups of actors dominant in the market, and we also examined the role of foreign investment. At the aggregate national level, the past decade looks like a process of recovery. Nonetheless, the factors relevant for the observable dynamics do not seem to correspond to the goals also formulated in the new constitution, but rather document the investment fever of certain groups.","PeriodicalId":37598,"journal":{"name":"Critical Housing Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66170477","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.13060/23362839.2022.9.1.544
Zaira Lofranco
This article explores the nexus between the financialisation of housing and socio-economic inequality in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). In this context, since the post-war economic reforms, driven by deindustrialisation, the precarisation of labour, and dependent financialisation, housing loans have become a ‘privilege’ for a restricted group of people with high and stable incomes. Instead, the housing aspirations of Bosnians are generally met with the aid of consumer loans and the ostensibly cheaper FX loans that were introduced in the mid-2000s. Drawing on quantitative and qualitative data, this paper highlights the enduring features of the polarised credit market in BiH. It particularly focuses on the period after the 2008 crisis when lending policies were only mildly re-regulated. FX loans never became the object of an ad hoc law to convert them to Bosnian convertible marks. This institutional approach has been unable to challenge the extreme class segmentation of housing finance and is still fostering indebtedness and precarious housing conditions among the lower-income segments of Bosnian society even after the pandemic.
{"title":"Housing Uncertainty: Socio-economic Inequality and Forex Loans Trajectories in the Bosnian Housing Market","authors":"Zaira Lofranco","doi":"10.13060/23362839.2022.9.1.544","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13060/23362839.2022.9.1.544","url":null,"abstract":"This article explores the nexus between the financialisation of housing and socio-economic inequality in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). In this context, since the post-war economic reforms, driven by deindustrialisation, the precarisation of labour, and dependent financialisation, housing loans have become a ‘privilege’ for a restricted group of people with high and stable incomes. Instead, the housing aspirations of Bosnians are generally met with the aid of consumer loans and the ostensibly cheaper FX loans that were introduced in the mid-2000s. Drawing on quantitative and qualitative data, this paper highlights the enduring features of the polarised credit market in BiH. It particularly focuses on the period after the 2008 crisis when lending policies were only mildly re-regulated. FX loans never became the object of an ad hoc law to convert them to Bosnian convertible marks. This institutional approach has been unable to challenge the extreme class segmentation of housing finance and is still fostering indebtedness and precarious housing conditions among the lower-income segments of Bosnian society even after the pandemic.","PeriodicalId":37598,"journal":{"name":"Critical Housing Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66170665","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.13060/23362839.2022.9.1.540
A. Saulitis
The stubborn decision of the Latvian government to join the eurozone at any cost put a great burden on Latvian households after the crisis of 2008. Nevertheless, no popular protest movement emerged to change the course of this decision. This study discusses why Latvians undertook individual strategies to cope with the forex loan crisis. Particularly, I look at the choice between formal debt relief procedures and emigration as alternative individual strategies for defaulted debtors. These programmes have not reversed the negative migration trends or significantly decreased the number of Latvian households in arrears. Debt discharge is mainly attainable for wealthy individuals who are able to mobilise their financial and kinship resources. Worse-off debtors cannot attain debt discharge or are stigmatised during the process. Alternatively, emigration has offered a way to cope with overindebtedness and keep up with mortgages and consumer loan payments for a much larger segment of the debtor population.
{"title":"Debt Relief or Exit: The Long-Term Effects of Forex Loans on Latvian Households","authors":"A. Saulitis","doi":"10.13060/23362839.2022.9.1.540","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13060/23362839.2022.9.1.540","url":null,"abstract":"The stubborn decision of the Latvian government to join the eurozone at any cost put a great burden on Latvian households after the crisis of 2008. Nevertheless, no popular protest movement emerged to change the course of this decision. This study discusses why Latvians undertook individual strategies to cope with the forex loan crisis. Particularly, I look at the choice between formal debt relief procedures and emigration as alternative individual strategies for defaulted debtors. These programmes have not reversed the negative migration trends or significantly decreased the number of Latvian households in arrears. Debt discharge is mainly attainable for wealthy individuals who are able to mobilise their financial and kinship resources. Worse-off debtors cannot attain debt discharge or are stigmatised during the process. Alternatively, emigration has offered a way to cope with overindebtedness and keep up with mortgages and consumer loan payments for a much larger segment of the debtor population.","PeriodicalId":37598,"journal":{"name":"Critical Housing Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66170604","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.13060/23362839.2022.9.1.538
M. Tomal
This paper aims to examine whether self-reported home valuations can be a substitute for objective market data in studies on the level of housing wealth inequality. In order to achieve this aim, information on subjective values of flats and their features in Warsaw (Poland) and Prague (Czechia) was used. Next, hedonic models were estimated to calculate the objective values of these residential properties. The results indicated that, on average, homeowners overestimated their real estate by 2.10% in Warsaw and underestimated by 5.49% in Prague. Finally, using tests for the equality of variances, it was examined whether the level of housing wealth inequality differed significantly when calculated using subjective and objective home values. The findings showed that self-reported home values cannot serve as a perfect proxy for market values when assessing the level of housing wealth inequality in both cities.
{"title":"Self-reported and Market Home Values in Housing Wealth Inequality Measurement: Evidence from Warsaw and Prague","authors":"M. Tomal","doi":"10.13060/23362839.2022.9.1.538","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13060/23362839.2022.9.1.538","url":null,"abstract":"This paper aims to examine whether self-reported home valuations can be a substitute for objective market data in studies on the level of housing wealth inequality. In order to achieve this aim, information on subjective values of flats and their features in Warsaw (Poland) and Prague (Czechia) was used. Next, hedonic models were estimated to calculate the objective values of these residential properties. The results indicated that, on average, homeowners overestimated their real estate by 2.10% in Warsaw and underestimated by 5.49% in Prague. Finally, using tests for the equality of variances, it was examined whether the level of housing wealth inequality differed significantly when calculated using subjective and objective home values. The findings showed that self-reported home values cannot serve as a perfect proxy for market values when assessing the level of housing wealth inequality in both cities.","PeriodicalId":37598,"journal":{"name":"Critical Housing Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66170592","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-06-01DOI: 10.13060/23362839.2021.8.1.520
M. Tomal
The aim of the article is to determine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the level of housing rents using the example of the City of Krakow. This study is based on objective data on rental prices and subjective information obtained from real estate agents using a questionnaire survey. The research revealed that the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic actually led to a 6-7% decrease in prices in the rental market in Krakow, while at the same time the surveyed real estate agents had estimated that rents would drop by about 13%. With the second wave of the pandemic, it is possible to see that its immediate impact, i.e. between the third and fourth quarter of 2020, has led to a further 6.25% drop in rents. It should be noted that the latter decrease was very accurately predicted, both by the survey respondents and by the econometric models used. Finally, the results of the analysis also indicated that the worsening of the pandemic in the last quarter of 2020 will have a significant impact on rent levels in Krakow for all of next year. Regardless of how the economy develops, rental prices are forecast to fall further in 2021q1. However, in the subsequent quarters of 2021, rents are projected to increase, but ultimately their level will not return to pre-pandemic values even in 2021q4. The latter is likely to happen only in the second half of 2022.
{"title":"The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Private Rental Housing Market in Poland: What Do Experts Say and What Do Actual Data Show?","authors":"M. Tomal","doi":"10.13060/23362839.2021.8.1.520","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13060/23362839.2021.8.1.520","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of the article is to determine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the level of housing rents using the example of the City of Krakow. This study is based on objective data on rental prices and subjective information obtained from real estate agents using a questionnaire survey. The research revealed that the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic actually led to a 6-7% decrease in prices in the rental market in Krakow, while at the same time the surveyed real estate agents had estimated that rents would drop by about 13%. With the second wave of the pandemic, it is possible to see that its immediate impact, i.e. between the third and fourth quarter of 2020, has led to a further 6.25% drop in rents. It should be noted that the latter decrease was very accurately predicted, both by the survey respondents and by the econometric models used. Finally, the results of the analysis also indicated that the worsening of the pandemic in the last quarter of 2020 will have a significant impact on rent levels in Krakow for all of next year. Regardless of how the economy develops, rental prices are forecast to fall further in 2021q1. However, in the subsequent quarters of 2021, rents are projected to increase, but ultimately their level will not return to pre-pandemic values even in 2021q4. The latter is likely to happen only in the second half of 2022.","PeriodicalId":37598,"journal":{"name":"Critical Housing Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66170369","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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