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Analisis inflasi di lihat dari permintaan dan penawaran di Indonesia Tahun 2000-2018
Pub Date : 2020-04-01 DOI: 10.22437/pim.v8i1.7189
Desy Martauli, Amri Amir, Candra Mustika
This study aims to determine the analysis of inflation in terms of demand and supply in Indonesia in 2000-2018, the variables studied are the exchange rate, loan interest rates, world oil prices, public consumption. The type of time series data with the analytical method used in this study is using simple linear regression analysis and multiple linear regression (OLS) methods. The results of the trend of each variable inflation, exchange rate, interest rates on loans, world oil prices and public consumption fluctuate and have a tendency to increase with average inflation of 2.71%, the exchange rate of Rp. 14,143, the loan interest rate of 12.15%, the price of world oil is 91.67% and Indonesian people's consumption is 6,850,384 billion rupiah. The results of simple linear regression and multiple linear regression are shown through the simultaneous test (F test) that the exchange rate, loan interest rate, world oil price, and public consumption have a positive and significant effect on inflation in Indonesia. The results of the partial test (t-test) show that the loan interest rate and world oil prices have a positive and significant effect on inflation in Indonesia and public consumption has a negative and significant effect on inflation in Indonesia, while the exchange rate has a positive and significant effect on inflation in Indonesia.Keywords: Inflation, Exchange rate, Loan interest rate, World oil price, Community consumption
本研究旨在确定2000-2018年印度尼西亚需求和供应方面的通货膨胀分析,研究的变量是汇率,贷款利率,世界石油价格,公共消费。本研究使用的分析方法对时间序列数据的类型采用简单线性回归分析和多元线性回归(OLS)方法。各变量通货膨胀、汇率、贷款利率、世界石油价格和公共消费的趋势波动的结果有上升的趋势,平均通货膨胀率为2.71%,汇率为14,143卢比,贷款利率为12.15%,世界石油价格为91.67%,印度尼西亚人民消费为6,850,384亿卢比。简单线性回归和多元线性回归的结果通过同时检验(F检验)表明,汇率、贷款利率、世界石油价格和公共消费对印度尼西亚的通货膨胀有显著的正向影响。部分检验(t检验)的结果表明,贷款利率和世界石油价格对印度尼西亚的通货膨胀有正显著的影响,公共消费对印度尼西亚的通货膨胀有负显著的影响,而汇率对印度尼西亚的通货膨胀有正显著的影响。关键词:通货膨胀,汇率,贷款利率,国际油价,社区消费
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引用次数: 0
Determinan impor Indonesia 决定进口印尼
Pub Date : 2020-04-01 DOI: 10.22437/pim.v8i1.8035
Andi Andini Adhalia, R. Rachmad, Rahma Nurjanah
The purpose of this study is to analyze: 1) The development of import values, inflation, exchange rates, FDI, and Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves for the period 1996-2017. 2) The influence of Indonesia's import determinants for the 1996-2017 period. In this study, the type of data used is secondary data based on the period 1996-2017. The method used in this research is descriptive analysis and quantitative analysis, namely multiple regression analysis. The results of this study indicate: 1) The average development of imports is 8.68% per year, the average inflation is 10.30% per year, the average development of the rupiah exchange rate against the dollar is 11.17% per year, the average development FDI is 5.66% per year, and the average development of foreign exchange reserves is 11.83% per year. 2) Simultaneously or together inflation, exchange rate, FDI, and foreign exchange reserves have a positive and significant impact on Indonesian imports. Partially, inflation has a positive and significant effect on Indonesian imports, the exchange rate has a negative and significant effect on Indonesian imports, FDI has a positive but not significant effect on Indonesian imports, and foreign exchange reserves have a positive and significant effect on Indonesian imports.Keywords: Imports, Inflation, Exchange rates, Foreign direct investment, Foreign exchange reserves
本研究的目的是分析:1)1996-2017年期间进口价值、通货膨胀、汇率、外国直接投资和印度尼西亚外汇储备的发展。2) 1996-2017年期间印尼进口决定因素的影响。在本研究中,使用的数据类型是基于1996-2017年期间的二手数据。本研究使用的方法是描述性分析和定量分析,即多元回归分析。研究结果表明:1)进口平均发展为8.68% /年,通货膨胀平均为10.30% /年,印尼盾兑美元汇率平均发展为11.17% /年,外国直接投资平均发展为5.66% /年,外汇储备平均发展为11.83% /年。2)通货膨胀、汇率、FDI和外汇储备同时或共同对印尼进口产生积极且显著的影响。通货膨胀对印尼进口有正向显著影响,汇率对印尼进口有负向显著影响,外国直接投资对印尼进口有正向但不显著影响,外汇储备对印尼进口有正向显著影响。关键词:进口,通货膨胀,汇率,外国直接投资,外汇储备
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引用次数: 0
Hubungan kausalitas ekspor batubara dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi Provinsi Jambi 煤炭出口关联性与Jambi省经济增长的关系
Pub Date : 2020-04-01 DOI: 10.22437/pim.v8i1.7617
Iis Puji Wahyuni, Amri Amir, Rahma Nurjanah
In this study aims to (1) know the development of economic growth and know the development of coal exports (2) find out the causality of coal exports with the economic growth of Jambi Province. The data used in this study are secondary data sourced from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) of Jambi Province. To answer these objectives, this study uses a type of quantitative descriptive research with an analysis model for the first and second problems using simple regression analysis and granger causality test. The results of the study show that (1) the average development of economic growth in Jambi Province in 2004-2018 was 6.15 percent; (2) the average development of coal exports is 149.64 percent, and (3) partially coal exports do not have a causal relationship to the economic growth of Jambi Province Keywords: Economic growth, Coal exports
本研究旨在(1)了解经济增长的发展情况,了解煤炭出口的发展情况(2)找出煤炭出口与占碑省经济增长的因果关系。本研究使用的数据是来自占碑省中央统计局(BPS)的二手数据。为了回答这些目标,本研究使用了一种定量描述性研究,并使用简单回归分析和格兰杰因果关系检验对第一和第二问题进行了分析模型。研究结果表明:(1)2004-2018年占碑省平均经济增长率为6.15%;(2)占壁省煤炭出口的平均增长率为149.64%;(3)占壁省部分煤炭出口与经济增长不存在因果关系
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引用次数: 1
Pengaruh ekspor, utang luar negeri, neraca transaksi berjalan dan neraca transaksi modal terhadap cadangan devisa di Indonesia 出口国、外债、经常交易和资本交易对印尼外汇储备的影响
Pub Date : 2020-04-01 DOI: 10.22437/pim.v8i1.7861
Graselita Aritonang, A. Amril, Zulgani Zulgani
The purpose of this study is to (1) see the description of Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves, exports, foreign debt, current account balance, and capital account balance for the period 1998-2017. (2) analyze the effect of exports, foreign debt, current account balance, and capital account balance on Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves. The method used in this research is quantitative descriptive analysis with multiple regression model analysis using the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method. The results of this study show that the average development of Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves is 11.87 percent, exports are 7.38 percent, foreign debt is 4.51 percent, the current account balance is 514.89 percent and the capital account balance is 66.92 percent. Based on the results of the analysis carried out by exports, foreign debt, current account balance, and capital account have a positive and significant effect on foreign exchange reserves with a coefficient of determination of 98.37 percent.Keywords: Foreign exchange, export, Foreign debt, Current account, Capital account
本研究的目的是(1)查看1998-2017年期间印度尼西亚外汇储备、出口、外债、经常账户余额和资本账户余额的描述。(2)分析出口、外债、经常项目余额和资本项目余额对印尼外汇储备的影响。本研究采用的方法是定量描述性分析,采用普通最小二乘(OLS)方法进行多元回归模型分析。研究结果表明,印尼外汇储备的平均发展率为11.87%,出口为7.38%,外债为4.51%,经常项目余额为514.89%,资本项目余额为66.92%。从出口的分析结果来看,外债、经常项目余额和资本项目对外汇储备的正向显著影响,其决定系数为98.37%。关键词:外汇,出口,外债,经常项目,资本项目
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引用次数: 0
Analisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi pendapatan pengusaha depot air minum isi ulang di Kecamatan Tungkal Ilir Kabupaten Tanjung Jabung Barat
Pub Date : 2019-12-26 DOI: 10.22437/pim.v7i3.10007
Surya Asnelly, S. Hodijah, Candra Mustika
This study aims to analyze the socio-economic characteristics of refill drinking water depot entrepreneurs and analyze the influence of opinions of refill drinking water depot entrepreneurs in Tungkal Ilir District, Tanjung Jabung Barat Regency. The data used in this study is primary data obtained through field research sourced from refill drinking water depot entrepreneurs as samples. The sampling method used in this study is Stratified Random Sampling. The analysis tool uses multiple linear regression. Based on the socio-economic characteristics of refill drinking water depot entrepreneurs in Tungkal Ilir District, Tanjung Jabung Barat Regency, some differences can be seen from the majority group of respondents based on the majority gender, age, education level, number of family members, length of business and income of refilled drinking water depot entrepreneurs repeat. The results of data processing the payment of refill drinking water depot entrepreneurs will increase obtained from the regression coefficients of each tube machine variable, education level, and family dependents, which significantly affect the income of refill drinking water depot entrepreneurs. At the same time, the operating hours variable has no significant effect on the payment of refill drinking water depot entrepreneurs in Tungkal Ilir District, Tanjung Jabung Barat Regency.Keywords : Income, Characteristics of refill drinking water depot entrepreneurs.
本研究旨在分析丹戎贾邦巴拉特县东噶伊力区续饮水库企业家的社会经济特征,并分析续饮水库企业家意见的影响。本研究使用的数据是通过实地调查获得的原始数据,这些数据来自于饮用水补给站的企业家作为样本。本研究采用的抽样方法是分层随机抽样。分析工具采用多元线性回归。社会经济特征的基础上补充饮用水仓库企业家Tungkal梅区海岬Jabung强烈阵雨摄政,可以看到一些不同的多数集团基于绝大多数的受访者的性别、年龄、教育水平、家庭成员的数量、长度的业务和收入的饮用水加得宝企业家重复。各管机变量、受教育程度、家庭受抚养人的回归系数对补水补水补水补水补水补水补水补水补水补水补水补水补水补水补水补水补水补水补水补水补水补水补水补水补水补水补水补水补水补水补水补水同时,运营时间变量对丹戎Jabung Barat reggency东加尔伊利尔区补水饮水库企业家的支付没有显著影响。关键词:收入,补水饮水库特点,创业者。
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引用次数: 0
Analisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi utang luar negeri Indonesia 分析影响印尼海外债务的因素
Pub Date : 2019-12-26 DOI: 10.22437/pim.v7i3.7314
Reza Fahlepi, Syaparuddin Syaparuddin
The purpose of this study is to (1) see the description of Indonesia's foreign debt, saving-investment gap, current account balance, and the budget deficit for the period 1990-2016. (2) analyze the effect of the saving-investment gap, current account balance, and budget deficit on Indonesia's foreign debt. The method used in this research is descriptive quantitative analysis with multiple regression model analysis using the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method. The results of this research are the average development of Indonesia's foreign debt is 6.21 percent, the Saving-Investment gap is 12.47 percent, the current account balance is 394.19 percent, and the budget deficit is 60.91 percent. Based on the analysis results, the Saving-Investment gap and budget deficit have a positive and significant effect on foreign debt. In contrast, the current account balance has a negative and insignificant effect on foreign debt, with a coefficient of determination of 85.52 percent.Keywords: Foreign debt, Saving-investment gap, Current account, Budget deficit
本研究的目的是(1)查看1990-2016年期间印度尼西亚的外债、储蓄-投资缺口、经常账户余额和预算赤字的描述。(2)分析储蓄-投资缺口、经常账户余额和预算赤字对印尼外债的影响。本研究采用的方法是描述性定量分析,采用普通最小二乘(OLS)方法进行多元回归模型分析。研究结果表明,印尼的平均发展外债为6.21%,储蓄-投资差额为12.47%,经常项目余额为394.19%,预算赤字为60.91%。根据分析结果,储蓄-投资缺口和预算赤字对外债有显著的正向影响。相反,经常项目余额对外债的影响为负且不显著,其决定系数为85.52%。关键词:外债;储蓄-投资缺口;经常项目
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引用次数: 1
Estimasi model neraca perdagangan Indonesia dalam periode 1998-2017 1998-2017 年期间印度尼西亚贸易平衡模型的估算
Pub Date : 2019-12-26 DOI: 10.22437/pim.v7i3.7206
Liza Azizah, Syamsurijal Tan, E. Emilia
This study aims to analyze Indonesia's trade balance dynamics and the factors that influence fluctuations in Indonesia's trade balance in the period 1998-2017. The method used in this study is a quantitative descriptive method. The data used in this study is time-series data on Indonesia's trade balance, exchange rate, GDP, inflation, and interest rates from 1998-2017. The data is processed through multiple regression analysis and development model analysis. The results showed that the variables of the exchange rate, GDP, inflation, and interest rates simultaneously significantly affected Indonesia's trade balance. Partially, the exchange rate, GDP, and interest rates have a significant effect on Indonesia's trade balance. In contrast, inflation does not substantially impact Indonesia's trade balance during the study period. R-square is 0.6882 or 68.82%, which means that Indonesia's trade balance for 1998-2017 is influenced by exchange rates, GDP, inflation, and interest rates, while other factors outside the estimation model influence the remaining 31.18%.Keywords: Trade balance, Exchange rate, GDP, Inflation, Interest rates.
本研究旨在分析1998-2017年印尼贸易平衡动态及影响印尼贸易平衡波动的因素。本研究采用的方法是定量描述法。本研究使用的数据是1998-2017年印度尼西亚贸易平衡、汇率、GDP、通货膨胀和利率的时间序列数据。通过多元回归分析和开发模型分析对数据进行处理。结果表明,汇率、GDP、通货膨胀和利率四个变量同时显著影响印尼的贸易平衡。在一定程度上,汇率、GDP和利率对印尼的贸易平衡有显著影响。相比之下,在研究期间,通货膨胀并未对印度尼西亚的贸易平衡产生实质性影响。r平方为0.6882或68.82%,这意味着印度尼西亚1998-2017年的贸易平衡受到汇率、GDP、通货膨胀和利率的影响,而估计模型之外的其他因素影响了剩余的31.18%。关键词:贸易平衡,汇率,GDP,通货膨胀,利率。
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引用次数: 1
Pengaruh industri kecil terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Provinsi Jambi 贾比省小型工业对经济增长的影响
Pub Date : 2019-12-26 DOI: 10.22437/pim.v7i3.7307
F. Sitanggang, Purwaka Hari Prihanto, Etik Umiyati
This study aims to determine the effect of the number of business units, investment, and labor on economic growth in Jambi Province in 2001-2017. This type of research is descriptive quantitative. The use of secondary data from the publication of the Central Statistics Agency of Jambi Province in the form of time series data, namely Economic Growth, number of small industrial business units, small industrial investment, small industrial workforce. The results showed that, from the results of the t-test, it can be concluded that for each small industrial business unit variable, the number of small industrial business units and small industrial workers has a significant effect on economic growth. The results of the coefficient of determination test (R²) show that the ability of the independent variables (small industrial business units, small industrial investment and small industrial workers) in explaining the dependent variable (economic growth) is 98.69 percent. In comparison, the variable others explain the remaining 1.31 percent outside the model.Keywords:  Economic growth, Business units, Labor, Investment
本研究旨在确定2001-2017年占碑省企业数量、投资和劳动力对经济增长的影响。这种类型的研究是描述性定量的。本文采用的二手数据来自中央统计局公布的占比省时间序列数据,即经济增长率、小工业经营单位数量、小工业投资、小工业劳动力数量。结果表明,从t检验的结果可以得出结论,对于每一个小工业经营单位变量,小工业经营单位数量和小工业工人数量对经济增长都有显著的影响。决定系数检验(R²)的结果表明,自变量(小产业单位、小产业投资、小产业工人)对因变量(经济增长)的解释能力为98.69%。相比之下,其他变量解释了模型之外剩下的1.31%。关键词:经济增长,企业,劳动力,投资
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引用次数: 1
Pengaruh FED rate, inflasi, dan indeks NIKKEI 225 terhadap IHSG di Indonesia (2016-2017)
Pub Date : 2019-12-26 DOI: 10.22437/pim.v7i3.7432
Joventus Partogi Silaen Joventus, H. Haryadi, E. Emilia
This study aims to analyze the influence and look at the Fed Rate, Inflation in Indonesia, and the NIKKEI 225 Index on the Composite Stock Price Index (JCI). The data used in this study is secondary data obtained from Bank Indonesia, Investing.com, library sources, journals, and other scientific articles. The analytical method used in this study is the multiple linear regression analysis method using the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method. Data is processed using software using monthly data with the research period from January 2016-December 2017 sourced from the internet, scientific journals, and books. The results of this study indicate that partially the FED Rate variable has a negative effect on the JCI, Inflation has a negative effect on the JCI, and the NIKKEI 225 Index has no effect on the NIKKEI 225 Index. Meanwhile, simultaneously all variables affect the JCI.Keywords: Fed Rate, Inflation, NIKKEI 225 Index, IDX
本研究旨在分析美联储利率、印尼通货膨胀和日经225指数对综合股票价格指数(JCI)的影响。本研究使用的数据是从印度尼西亚银行、Investing.com、图书馆资源、期刊和其他科学文章中获得的二手数据。本研究采用的分析方法是使用普通最小二乘法(OLS)的多元线性回归分析法。数据使用软件处理,使用每月数据,研究期间为2016年1月至2017年12月,数据来源于互联网、科学期刊和书籍。本研究结果表明,部分美联储利率变量对综合指数有负向影响,通货膨胀对综合指数有负向影响,日经225指数对日经225指数没有影响。同时,所有变量同时影响JCI。关键词:美联储利率,通货膨胀,日经225指数,IDX
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引用次数: 1
Pengaruh variabel-variabel di sektor riil dan perbankan terhadap Shock Credit Default Swap (CDS) di Indonesia
Pub Date : 2019-12-26 DOI: 10.22437/pim.v7i3.13071
Dwi Hastuti, Muhammad Edhie Purnawan, Sunargo Sunargo
The rapid development of the global financial market today is getting faster and integrated with the existence of advanced technology. Along with economic issues in various worlds, directly related to the global economic crisis that occurred in 2008-2009 greatly influenced the development of credit default swaps (CDS) in developing countries such as Indonesia. The increase in the value of the credit default swap, which carries a high risk of default, will further impact investor confidence and weaken the exchange rate. This is reflected in the shocks of the global crisis and the subprime mortgage prime in the United States. However, the onset of a global crisis can be early with early indicators of crisis from credit default swaps so that crisis management can be carried out faster. The results of this study indicate that the credit default swap is responded to faster by the banking sector than the real sector.  Keywords: Financial crises, Credit Default Swap (CDS), Riil and  banking sector
当今全球金融市场的快速发展越来越快,与先进技术的存在融合在一起。随着世界各国的经济问题,与2008-2009年发生的全球经济危机直接相关的信用违约掉期(CDS)在印度尼西亚等发展中国家的发展受到了很大的影响。信用违约互换具有较高的违约风险,其价值的上升将进一步影响投资者信心,使汇率走弱。这反映在全球危机和美国次贷危机的冲击中。然而,全球危机的爆发可以很早,信用违约掉期可以提供危机的早期指标,以便更快地进行危机管理。研究结果表明,银行部门对信用违约互换的反应速度快于实体部门。关键词:金融危机,信用违约互换(CDS),里尔,银行业
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引用次数: 5
期刊
e-Journal Perdagangan Industri dan Moneter
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