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National Security and International Policy Challenges in a Post Stuxnet World 后震网时代的国家安全和国际政策挑战
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2014-12-01 DOI: 10.2478/lasr-2014-0001
Vytautas Butrimas
Abstract The international community has focused too much on addressing cybercrime and cyber hacktivist questions. The list of usual suspects responsible for cyber incidents associated with attacks involving the theft of intellectual property, sensitive private data, money and disruption of web services unfortunately has grown beyond the attention seeking student hacker, cybercriminal or social hacktivist. The public appearance of the Stuxnet family of malware designed to destroy specifically targeted critical infrastructure components in June of 2010 gave perhaps the first indication that States have entered cyberspace as one of the perpetrators of malicious cyber activity. The problem of States actively preparing and executing cyber-attacks against the critical infrastructures of other States has been largely ignored by the international community. These attacks raise national security issues concerning threats to the economic and social well-being of States. However the pervasive presence of cyber space as the common environment where all modern industrial processes take place and the interrelations developed among the critical infrastructure of other States raise cross-border security issues as well. The international community must act in order to insure that the use of this new weapon by States will not get out of hand and be the cause of new and more serious international conflicts. Three solutions and a possible model are proposed to manage this disruptive activity of States in cyberspace at the international level.
国际社会过于关注网络犯罪和网络黑客问题。不幸的是,与窃取知识产权、敏感私人数据、资金和网络服务中断等攻击相关的网络事件的常见嫌疑人名单,已经超出了学生黑客、网络犯罪分子或社会黑客主义者的关注范围。2010年6月,Stuxnet系列恶意软件的公开出现,其目的是破坏特定目标的关键基础设施组件,这或许是第一次表明,国家已作为恶意网络活动的肇事者之一进入网络空间。一些国家积极准备和实施针对其他国家关键基础设施的网络攻击,这一问题在很大程度上被国际社会所忽视。这些攻击引起了国家安全问题,涉及对各国经济和社会福利的威胁。然而,网络空间作为所有现代工业过程发生的共同环境的普遍存在以及其他国家关键基础设施之间发展的相互关系也引发了跨境安全问题。国际社会必须采取行动,以确保各国对这种新武器的使用不会失去控制,不会成为新的和更严重的国际冲突的根源。为在国际一级管理国家在网络空间的这种破坏性活动,提出了三种解决办法和一种可能的模式。
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引用次数: 5
The First Decade of Lithuania in the European Union: between Meta-Political Values and “Pragmatic” Politics 立陶宛加入欧盟的第一个十年:在元政治价值与“实用主义”政治之间
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2014-12-01 DOI: 10.2478/lasr-2014-0003
Žygimantas Pavilionis
Abstract At present, the accommodative and technocratic policy of Europe, dominant in Lithuania (as well as in the European Union), is pushing Lithuania (and the European Union) to the margins of global politics, and it reflects the inability to fight for Lithuania’s meta-political interests in the European Union and the region. With a decade of its membership in the European Union at hand, Lithuania has not yet formulated a strategic vision of its presence in the European Union; all the previous attempts to develop such a strategy have been exhausted or failed; meanwhile the strategic capabilities of Lithuania are consistently weakening. The main objective of this article is to enrich the current technocratic policy with a meta-political, values-based, strategic dimension. Seeking the best feasible alternatives for the horizontal and fragmented level of Lithuania’s studies on Europe, the researcher has consciously chosen the European policy of the Holy See which stands out as to its verticality, capability to maintain the continuity of its principles and essential goals and its impact on the formation of Europe itself. It is an attempt to find the most general attitude to the European Union perspective which is lacking in the current discussions on European policy in Lithuania and in the policy itself. Christian meta-politics provides Lithuania with a possibility to consciously choose a positive rather than negative freedom in Europe. A positive freedom in the European Union would enable Lithuania to maintain its political and cultural identity, and would grant it a weighty role in the region, the European Union and the world. In its own turn, in the social and economic areas a Christian metapolitics would strengthen societal integrity, solidarity, personal and communal responsibility, and would enhance humanity-an action in short supply in Lithuanian policy. *
目前,在立陶宛(以及欧盟)占主导地位的欧洲的通融和技术官僚政策正在将立陶宛(和欧盟)推向全球政治的边缘,这反映了立陶宛在欧盟和该地区为其元政治利益而战的无能。立陶宛加入欧洲联盟已有十年,但它尚未就其在欧洲联盟的存在制定战略愿景;以前制定这种战略的所有尝试都已用尽或失败;与此同时,立陶宛的战略能力也在不断削弱。本文的主要目的是用元政治、基于价值观的战略维度来丰富当前的技术官僚政策。为了寻找立陶宛关于欧洲的横向和碎片化研究的最佳可行替代方案,研究人员有意识地选择了罗马教廷的欧洲政策,该政策在其垂直性、保持其原则和基本目标连续性的能力以及对欧洲本身形成的影响方面表现突出。它试图找到对欧洲联盟观点的最普遍的态度,这种态度在立陶宛目前关于欧洲政策的讨论和政策本身中都是缺乏的。基督教元政治为立陶宛在欧洲有意识地选择一种积极而非消极的自由提供了可能。在欧洲联盟中的积极自由将使立陶宛能够保持其政治和文化特性,并将使它在该区域、欧洲联盟和世界中发挥重要作用。反过来,在社会和经济领域,基督教元政治将加强社会诚信、团结、个人和公共责任,并将加强人道主义——这是立陶宛政策中缺乏的行动。*
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引用次数: 1
The Manifestation of Cultural Awareness of Military Personnel Participating in International Operations 军事人员参与国际行动的文化自觉表现
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2014-12-01 DOI: 10.2478/lasr-2014-0011
Agnietė Žotkevičiūtė
Abstract The article provides a model of cultural awareness applied to the assessment of the manifestation of cultural awareness of military personnel participating in international operations and empirically assesses the manifestation of cultural awareness of the Lithuanian military personnel that have participated in international operations. In the first part of the article, competences constituting cultural awareness and methods of their acquisition are defined and, on the basis of the peculiarities of the cultural awareness of military personnel revealed in the article, a model of cultural awareness is formed. In the second part, the cultural awareness and methods of its acquisition of the Lithuanian military personnel that have participated in international operations is empirically assessed. Having assessed the cultural awareness of the Lithuanian military personnel that have participated in international operations, generalizations and recommendations concerning the cultural awareness of Lithuanian military personnel are provided.
摘要本文提出了一种文化意识模型,应用于参与国际行动的军事人员文化意识表现的评估,并对参与国际行动的立陶宛军事人员的文化意识表现进行了实证评估。本文第一部分界定了构成军人文化意识的能力及其获取方法,并根据本文揭示的军人文化意识的特点,构建了军人文化意识的模式。在第二部分中,对其获得参与国际行动的立陶宛军事人员的文化意识和方法进行了经验评估。在评估了参加国际行动的立陶宛军事人员的文化意识之后,提出了关于立陶宛军事人员文化意识的概括和建议。
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引用次数: 0
The Euro Zone Crisis and Differentiation in the European Union: a Threat to the Goals of the EU or an Instrument of Managing the Divergence of National Interests? 欧元区危机与欧盟内部分化:对欧盟目标的威胁还是管控国家利益分歧的工具?
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2014-12-01 DOI: 10.2478/lasr-2014-0004
Ramūnas Vilpišauskas
Abstract This article discusses the institutional evolution of the European Union (EU) in reacting to the euro zone crisis and the new forms of differentiation in the EU. It presents and elaborates several arguments. First, despite calls to complete the creation of the “genuine Economic and Monetary Union“ and to make a step towards federal structure of the Union with single currency and single central budget used to react to asymmetric shocks, most decisions actually agreed upon by member states since the start of the crisis can be seen as attempts to avoid exactly such a scenario. Second, although the divide between the “Northern“ and “Southern“ groups of the EU member states seems attractive in its simplicity, it is a gross simplification of the current situation and hides important differences of member state preferences within each of the groupings. Third, it is also too simplistic to see the membership in the euro zone as the main characteristic defining the state of differentiation in the EU. As it is discussed in the text, both euro zone member states and EU countries outside the euro zone participate in different initiatives of integration and show different national preferences. Finally, the text concludes with a formulation of the main policy dilemmas for Lithuania in terms of ongoing process of complex differentiation and taking into account the prospect of joining the euro zone in 2015.
摘要本文探讨了欧盟应对欧元区危机的制度演变以及欧盟内部分化的新形式。它提出并阐述了几个论点。首先,尽管有人呼吁完成“真正的经济和货币联盟”的创建,并朝着联盟的联邦结构迈出一步,使用单一货币和单一中央预算来应对不对称冲击,但自危机开始以来,成员国实际上达成的大多数决定都可以被视为试图避免这种情况的发生。其次,尽管欧盟成员国的“北方”和“南方”集团之间的划分似乎简单而有吸引力,但这是对当前形势的粗略简化,并且隐藏了每个集团内部成员国偏好的重要差异。第三,将欧元区成员国身份视为界定欧盟分化状态的主要特征也过于简单化。正如文中所讨论的,无论是欧元区成员国还是欧元区以外的欧盟国家,都参与了不同的一体化倡议,并表现出不同的国家偏好。最后,考虑到立陶宛在2015年加入欧元区的前景,本文总结了立陶宛在复杂分化过程中面临的主要政策困境。
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引用次数: 0
The Impact of Force Structures and the Army on Maintaining the Regime in Belarus 部队结构和军队对维持白俄罗斯政权的影响
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2014-12-01 DOI: 10.2478/lasr-2014-0009
Jovita Neliupšienė, Valentinas Beržiūnas
Abstract The article analyzes how the army and other Belarusian institutions constituting the architecture of security can make an impact on the stability of the regime. Two problematic issues are raised. The first issue deals with how the force structure system and its formal and informal control, management and definition of short-and medium-term functions determine the stability of the Belarusian regime. The second issue poses the question whether the centralization of internal and army management, definition of control and functions is the decisive factor or militarization. Attention is paid to institutional analysis. Attempts are made to reveal how and why functions of the army and security institutions are defined, which of them are formal and which are informal, and what informal institutions or organizations contribute to the efforts of formal institutions to ensure the stability of the regime.
摘要本文分析了军队和其他白俄罗斯机构构成的安全架构如何对政权的稳定产生影响。提出了两个问题。第一个问题涉及部队结构系统及其正式和非正式控制、管理和确定短期和中期职能如何决定白俄罗斯政权的稳定。第二个问题是内部和军队管理的集中化、控制和职能的界定是否是军事化的决定性因素。注重制度分析。他们试图揭示军队和安全机构的职能是如何界定的以及为什么界定的,哪些是正式的,哪些是非正式的,以及哪些非正式机构或组织有助于正式机构确保政权稳定的努力。
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引用次数: 3
Banking System Stability and Public Security: the Cases of the Collapse of the Commercial Banks “Snoras” and “Ūkio bankas” in Lithuania 银行体系稳定与公共安全:立陶宛商业银行“Snoras”和“Ūkio bankas”倒闭案例
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2014-12-01 DOI: 10.2478/lasr-2014-0012
L. Mažylis, Ingrida Unikaite-Jakuntaviciene
Abstract The stability of the banking system is analyzed in the article as an important condition of security of the society. The article analyzes the short term and long term impact of the collapse of two commercial banks, “Snoras” and “Ūkio bankas”, on the public attitude about the banking activities in Lithuania. Employing new institutionalism theoretical approaches, an analytical model is constructed based on the reconstruction of discursive devices of two Lithuanian Internet news portals, Delfi.lt and Lrytas.lt. The positions of the main process actors (Bank of Lithuania, Heads of the State, and media itself) within a changing structural environment are assessed. The article argues that new institutionalism presents an appropriate theoretical framework for characterizing the processes analyzed, taking into account calculations of actors and explaining development of political processes, and taking into account circumstances of consensus reached in the former stages of political processes. Employing the discursive institutionalism approach enables the understanding of actors as actively influencing and changing structural environment. Five stages of bank collapse are defined according to the reflections in the news media portals. They differ by their continuity, intensity and by the means used for (re-)constructing discourses, comparing former case of collapse with the latter one. For instance, the position of the society caused by the “Snoras” bank collapse can be characterized as a classical case of cognitive dissonance: commercial banks are treated by the society as untrustworthy and at the same time society’s behavior shows that society is benefiting from the bank services. Politically the problem analyzed seems like a marginal one without any important influence on mainstream political processes. It seems that the situation after the bank collapse is different from early post-Soviet times when “safety of savings” was an important argument in the fight of political parties for the power. However, taking into account the influence of these two banks’ collapses for international country ratings we note that collapse as a “frequent phenomenon” worsened Lithuania’s position. “Normatively” interpreting the collapse cases we may argue that actors of the political field (mainstream media channels included) coped with the dynamic situation by appropriately minimizing negative outcomes of the collapse of the two commercial banks.
摘要本文分析了银行体系的稳定性作为社会安全的重要条件。本文分析了“Snoras”和“Ūkio bankas”两家商业银行的倒闭对立陶宛公众对银行活动态度的短期和长期影响。本文运用新制度主义理论方法,以立陶宛两个互联网新闻门户网站Delfi的话语装置重构为基础,构建了一个分析模型。它和莱塔斯。评估了主要进程行动者(立陶宛银行、国家元首和媒体本身)在不断变化的结构环境中的立场。本文认为,新制度主义提供了一个适当的理论框架来描述所分析的过程,考虑到行动者的计算和解释政治进程的发展,并考虑到政治进程前阶段达成共识的情况。运用话语制度主义方法,可以将行动者理解为积极影响和改变结构环境的行动者。根据新闻媒体门户网站的反映,确定了银行崩溃的五个阶段。它们的不同之处在于它们的连续性、强度以及用于(重新)建构话语的手段,将前者与后者进行比较。例如,“Snoras”银行倒闭导致的社会地位可以被描述为认知失调的经典案例:商业银行被社会视为不值得信任的,同时社会的行为表明社会从银行的服务中受益。在政治上,分析的问题似乎是一个边缘问题,对主流政治进程没有任何重要影响。银行倒闭后的情况似乎与后苏联时代早期不同,当时“储蓄安全”是政党争夺权力的重要论据。然而,考虑到这两家银行破产对国际国家评级的影响,我们注意到,破产作为一种“频繁现象”恶化了立陶宛的地位。“规范地”解释倒闭案例,我们可能会认为,政治领域的行动者(包括主流媒体渠道)通过适当地减少两家商业银行倒闭的负面后果来应对动态情况。
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引用次数: 3
The Model of Turkish Foreign Policy: Opening New Horizons 土耳其外交政策模式:开辟新视野
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2014-12-01 DOI: 10.2478/lasr-2014-0005
Valerij Špak
Abstract Seeking international authority Turkey uses a self-designed democracy model; therefore, this Muslim state has more possibilities to address societies of the Middle East region and propose to them a new paradigm concerning the future of these countries, thus guaranteeing their aspirations for justice and equality. Turkey is the only Muslim state with a functioning democracy, oriented towards the world of the West. The position of the political elite of Turkey concerning a vision for the country’s modernization and its traditional Muslim society world outlook, reflects the compatibility of the internal development of the country. While analyzing the principles of Turkish foreign policy, the doctrine of the “Strategic Depth”, the guidelines, tendencies, strategies, directions and visions of Turkish foreign policy, one may discern the possibilities of the use of doctrine principles, taking into consideration essential geopolitical changes of the 20th and 21st centuries. The issue of Turkey’s accession to the European Union is a complicated and controversial aspect of the foreign policy of the EU. Therefore, an understanding of the decision-taking model of the Turkish political elite will enable European Union politicians (as well as those of Lithuania) to make clear substantiated decisions regarding this country.
寻求国际权威,土耳其采用自主设计的民主模式;因此,这个穆斯林国家有更多的可能性来解决中东地区的社会问题,并向他们提出一个关于这些国家未来的新范式,从而保证他们对正义和平等的渴望。土耳其是唯一一个民主运作良好的穆斯林国家,面向西方世界。土耳其政治精英对国家现代化愿景及其传统穆斯林社会世界观的立场,反映了该国内部发展的兼容性。在分析土耳其外交政策的原则、“战略纵深”学说、土耳其外交政策的指导方针、倾向、战略、方向和愿景时,人们可以在考虑到20世纪和21世纪重要的地缘政治变化的情况下,看出运用学说原则的可能性。土耳其加入欧盟的问题是欧盟外交政策中一个复杂而有争议的方面。因此,了解土耳其政治精英的决策模式将使欧盟政治家(以及立陶宛的政治家)能够对这个国家做出明确的、有根据的决策。
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引用次数: 0
Security Policy at Road’s End? The Roles of Sweden and Finland in the Nordic-Baltic Defence Cooperation Process 路尽头的安全政策?瑞典和芬兰在北欧-波罗的海防务合作进程中的作用
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2014-12-01 DOI: 10.2478/lasr-2014-0007
M. Winnerstig
Abstract The article addresses a number of questions related to Nordic and to an extent also Nordic-Baltic defence cooperation. First of all, how far has Nordic and Nordic-Baltic defence cooperation come today? Secondly, what are the differences in the approaches of Sweden and Finland when it comes to defence cooperation, especially regarding NATO, in the Nordic-Baltic area? As a first analytical result, it is apparent that the rhetorical standing of the Nordic and Nordic-Baltic defence cooperation process is greater than its real achievements, especially in terms of defence integration. Secondly, it seems also to be clear that the defence and security policy debates of Sweden and Finland are quite different. Some problems identified in the debates within the two countries, respectively, are very similar although the suggested solutions vary very remarkably. Regarding the key issue of NATO membership, the developments of the last few years suggest that the Swedish political establishment, as well as the general public, might be closer to a substantial discussion of NATO membership than their Finnish equivalents.
本文讨论了与北欧以及在某种程度上也与北欧-波罗的海防务合作有关的一些问题。首先,北欧和北欧-波罗的海防务合作今天取得了多大进展?第二,瑞典和芬兰在北欧-波罗的海地区的防务合作,特别是北约方面的做法有什么不同?作为第一个分析结果,北欧和北欧-波罗的海防务合作进程的口头地位显然大于其实际成就,特别是在防务一体化方面。其次,瑞典和芬兰的国防和安全政策辩论似乎也很明显是完全不同的。在两国内部辩论中分别确定的一些问题非常相似,尽管建议的解决办法差别很大。关于北约成员这一关键问题,过去几年的事态发展表明,瑞典的政治机构以及一般公众可能比芬兰的政治机构更接近于实质性地讨论北约成员问题。
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引用次数: 4
Latvian Security and Defense Policy within the Twenty-First Century Security Environment 21世纪安全环境下的拉脱维亚安全和国防政策
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2014-12-01 DOI: 10.2478/lasr-2014-0008
Raimonds Rublovskis
Abstract The aim of this paper is to analyze fundamental factors which form and profoundly shape security and defense policy of the Republic of Latvia. One can argue that historical background, geographical location, common institutional history within the former Soviet Union, the Russia factor, the relative smallness of the territory of state and the population, the ethnic composition of the population, the low density of the population and rather limited financial and manpower resources available for the defense of the Republic of Latvia are the key factors of influence on the state security and defense policy. The core principles of the security and defense policy of Latvia are the membership in powerful global military alliance of NATO and bilateral strategic partnership with the United States. However, security and defense cooperation among the three Baltic States as well as enhanced cooperation within the Baltic-Nordic framework is seen as an important supplementary factor for the increased security of the Republic of Latvia. Latvia has developed a sustainable legal and institutional framework in order to contribute to state security and defense; however, security challenges and significant changes within the global security environment of the twenty-first century will further challenge the ability of the Republic of Latvia to sustain its current legal framework, and more importantly, current institutional structure of Latvian security and defense architecture. Significant internal and external challenges will impact the fundamental pillars of Latvian security and defense policy, such as American strategic shift to the Pacific, and lack of political will to increase defense budgets in European part of NATO. It has to be clear that very independence, security and defense of the Republic of Latvia depend on the ability of NATO to remain an effective organization with timely and efficient decision-making, and the ability of the United States to remain militarily effective and committed to the security and defense of Europe.
摘要本文旨在分析构成并深刻影响拉脱维亚共和国安全与防务政策的基本因素。可以说,历史背景、地理位置、前苏联内部共同的体制历史、俄罗斯因素、国家领土和人口的相对较小、人口的种族构成、人口密度低以及可用于保卫拉脱维亚共和国的财政和人力资源相当有限是影响国家安全和国防政策的关键因素。拉脱维亚安全和防务政策的核心原则是加入强大的全球军事联盟北约和与美国的双边战略伙伴关系。然而,三个波罗的海国家之间的安全和防务合作以及波罗的海-北欧框架内的加强合作被视为拉脱维亚共和国加强安全的一个重要补充因素。拉脱维亚制定了可持续的法律和体制框架,以促进国家安全和国防;然而,21世纪全球安全环境中的安全挑战和重大变化将进一步挑战拉脱维亚共和国维持其现有法律框架的能力,更重要的是,挑战拉脱维亚安全和防务架构目前的体制结构。重大的内部和外部挑战将影响拉脱维亚安全和国防政策的基本支柱,例如美国向太平洋的战略转移,以及缺乏增加北约欧洲部分国防预算的政治意愿。必须明确的是,拉脱维亚共和国的独立、安全和防御取决于北约是否有能力保持一个及时有效决策的有效组织,以及美国是否有能力保持军事上的有效性,并致力于欧洲的安全和防御。
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引用次数: 2
Sharing the Burden? Assessing the Lithuanian Decision to Establish a Provincial Reconstruction Team in Afghanistan 分担负担?评估立陶宛关于在阿富汗建立省级重建队的决定
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2014-12-01 DOI: 10.2478/lasr-2014-0010
Asta Maskaliūnaitė
Abstract The paper assesses theories explaining the states’ burden-sharing decisions in an alliance and uses them to evaluate the Lithuanian decision to establish a Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) in Afghanistan. In the literature, several influences on such decision-making are identified. These fall into two broad categories of systemic and domestic factors. From the former, threat perception, alliance dependence, systemic pressures of alliance politics are analysed; and from the latter three clusters of aspects such as: state autonomy, elite consensus, space of manoeuver of the executive; bureaucratic politics and organizational interests, and third, some additional elements of strategic culture/state identity. While most factors have some explanatory value, the analysis invites the conclusion that in case of the decision to lead a PRT, the two most important elements were alliance dependence from the first cluster and strategic culture and bureaucratic politics from the second.
摘要:本文评估了解释联盟中国家负担分担决策的理论,并用它们来评估立陶宛在阿富汗建立省级重建队(PRT)的决定。在文献中,确定了对这种决策的几个影响。这些因素可分为两大类:系统性因素和国内因素。从前者出发,分析了联盟政治的威胁感知、联盟依赖、系统压力;从后三组方面看:国家自治、精英共识、行政操作空间;官僚政治和组织利益,第三,战略文化/国家认同的一些附加因素。虽然大多数因素具有一定的解释价值,但分析得出的结论是,在决定领导PRT的情况下,两个最重要的因素是来自第一个集群的联盟依赖和来自第二个集群的战略文化和官僚政治。
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引用次数: 3
期刊
Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review
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