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The Military Power of Russia – a Means for Activating an Expansionist Policy 俄罗斯的军事力量——激活扩张主义政策的手段
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2015-12-01 DOI: 10.1515/lasr-2015-0005
Erikas Kaukas
Abstract The majority of scientific research on the international behavior of Russia has so far been largely grounded on political decisions made exceptionally by its political elite. However, in this article, the author is trying to prove that political decisions are first of all based on material resources of the state, and this, in turn, can likely determine the causality between the military power of the state and its foreign policy. Therefore, Russian military power is treated in this article as a means of carrying out expansionist foreign policy. The premise is raised that the growth of Russia‘s military power is related to its aspiration to strengthen its influence in the post-Soviet region. The analysis of Russia‘s security and defense policy, defense expenditure, military capabilities and military activeness reveals that the military power of Russia is growing with a dual aim: (1) to deter NATO and the EU from further enlargement; and (2) to retain and/or expand its influence in the post-Soviet states.
迄今为止,大多数关于俄罗斯国际行为的科学研究在很大程度上是基于其政治精英做出的例外政治决策。然而,在本文中,作者试图证明政治决策首先是基于国家的物质资源,而这反过来又可能决定国家军事实力与其外交政策之间的因果关系。因此,本文将俄罗斯的军事力量视为实施扩张主义外交政策的一种手段。有人提出,俄罗斯军事力量的增长与俄罗斯希望加强在后苏联地区的影响力有关。通过对俄罗斯安全与国防政策、国防开支、军事能力和军事活跃度的分析,可以发现俄罗斯军事力量的增长具有双重目的:(1)遏制北约和欧盟的进一步扩大;(2)保持和/或扩大其在后苏联国家的影响力。
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引用次数: 0
The Relevance and Influence of Small States in NATO and the EU Common Foreign and Security Policy 小国在北约和欧盟共同外交和安全政策中的相关性和影响
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2015-12-01 DOI: 10.1515/lasr-2015-0004
V. Urbelis
Abstract Small states are important and visible players in international politics. Their power is limited, and their economy and military capability may not match those of their larger neighbours, but small states enjoy certain advantages that increase their abilities to influence international politics. This article tries to show and explain how small states can act and exploit their advantages in a wider international arena. The main aim is to show ways and methods for small states to act and pursue their policy goals. This article analyses the behaviour of small states inside two major European security actors: NATO and the EU. Several examples will be presented in detail, namely, air policing in the Baltic states and the Lithuanian Presidency in the European Council. These examples clearly show the achievements and failures of small states in international politics.
小国是国际政治中重要的、可见的参与者。他们的力量有限,他们的经济和军事能力可能比不上他们的大邻居,但小国享有某些优势,这些优势增加了他们影响国际政治的能力。本文试图展示和解释小国如何在更广泛的国际舞台上采取行动并利用其优势。主要目的是展示小国采取行动和追求其政策目标的途径和方法。本文分析了两大欧洲安全主体——北约和欧盟——内部小国的行为。将详细介绍几个例子,即波罗的海国家的空中治安和立陶宛担任欧洲理事会主席。这些例子清楚地显示了小国在国际政治中的成就和失败。
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引用次数: 6
Paris, Moscow, and “Europe out of the EU” 巴黎,莫斯科和“脱欧的欧洲”
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2015-12-01 DOI: 10.1515/LASR-2015-0003
Philippe Perchoc
Abstract Under the presidencies of Nicolas Sarkozy and François Hollande, the French diplomats were keen to strengthen the partnership between Paris and Moscow as it served French interests on the international stage. In this context, this article demonstrates that Eastern-Central Europe (Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova and the Caucasus) is of secondary interest for French diplomacy, unless it provides an opportunity to highlight Paris’ role in international affairs. The Georgian war in 2008, the Mistral issue, and the Ukraine crises are several good illustrations of this phenomenon.
在法国总统萨科齐和奥朗德的领导下,法国外交官热衷于加强巴黎和莫斯科之间的伙伴关系,因为这符合法国在国际舞台上的利益。在这种背景下,本文表明,东欧-中欧(白俄罗斯、乌克兰、摩尔多瓦和高加索)是法国外交的次要利益,除非它提供了一个突出巴黎在国际事务中的作用的机会。2008年的格鲁吉亚战争、西北风问题和乌克兰危机就是这一现象的几个很好的例证。
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引用次数: 2
Intellectual Reflection and Civil-Military Relations in Lithuania 立陶宛的思想反思和军民关系
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2015-12-01 DOI: 10.1515/lasr-2015-0011
Deividas Šlekys
Abstract Civil-military relations in Lithuania have serious deficiencies, which have appeared because of the emulation of a recommended Western model of civilian control. After regaining Independence, Lithuania had the difficult task of creating its armed forces and system of national defence following the Western model. At the same time we had to implement two political programs: to create functioning armed forces and a institutional-legal system of democratic civil-military control. However, this control is not only proper laws and functioning institutions. Equally, an important role must be given to intellectual reflection, which enables the posing of questions such as: what is war; how is the character of war changing; how does this affect Lithuanian defence policies and the perception of threats? Raising such questions inside the armed forces and in wider political and civil society is an essential condition for having effective and flexible civilian control over the military.
立陶宛的军民关系存在严重缺陷,这是由于模仿西方的文官控制模式而出现的。获得独立后,立陶宛面临着按照西方模式建立武装力量和国防体系的艰巨任务。与此同时,我们必须实施两项政治计划:建立有效的武装部队和民主的文官-军队控制的制度-法律体系。然而,这种控制不仅是适当的法律和有效的机构。同样,智力反思也必须发挥重要作用,它使人们能够提出这样的问题:什么是战争;战争的性质是如何变化的?这对立陶宛的国防政策和对威胁的看法有何影响?在武装部队内部以及在更广泛的政治和民间社会提出这些问题是文官对军队实行有效和灵活控制的必要条件。
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引用次数: 0
Analysis of Volunteer Soldiers‘ Attitudes to Service in the Lithuanian Military 立陶宛军队志愿兵服役态度分析
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2015-12-01 DOI: 10.1515/lasr-2015-0012
Eglė Vileikienė, Aušra Pocienė, Jolanta Aleknevičienė
Abstract The article presents an analysis of volunteer soldiers as a link between the Lithuanian military and society, their attitudes towards military service and their motivation to serve in the Lithuanian army. The authors looked at soldiers’ dedication to defend their Homeland and motives for serving in the Lithuanian army, presenting an assessment of the situation in the ranks and their overall satisfaction with military service. Volunteer soldiers’ expectations are also discussed, as well as their motives to remain in service, plus there are also recommendations for attracting new soldier recruits. The article concludes with the statement that Lithuanian volunteer soldiers are an important unifying link between the Lithuanian army and society, and can significantly contribute to the formation of the image of the soldier’s profession in society. Besides the social status that comes with military service and the satisfaction of financial needs, volunteer soldiers are exclusively characterised by strong patriotic feelings which determine their motivation to serve and defend their Homeland. The article’s findings rest on data from the complex sociological research study “Motivation to serve in the Ministry of Defence Volunteer Forces of the Lithuanian Military” which was conducted in April–November, 2014 by the Strategic Research Centre at the Institute of Military Science of the General Jonas Žemaitis Military Academy of Lithuania.
摘要本文分析了作为立陶宛军队与社会联系纽带的志愿兵,以及他们对兵役的态度和在立陶宛军队服役的动机。作者考察了士兵们保卫祖国的奉献精神和在立陶宛军队服役的动机,对军队的情况和他们对兵役的总体满意度进行了评估。还讨论了志愿军士兵的期望,以及他们继续服役的动机,此外还有吸引新兵新兵的建议。文章最后指出,立陶宛志愿兵是立陶宛军队与社会联系的重要纽带,对军人职业在社会中的形象形成具有重要作用。除了服兵役所带来的社会地位和经济需求的满足之外,志愿士兵的唯一特点是强烈的爱国感情,这决定了他们为祖国服务和保卫祖国的动力。这篇文章的结论基于复杂的社会学研究“在立陶宛军队国防部志愿部队服役的动机”的数据,该研究于2014年4月至11月由乔纳斯将军军事科学研究所战略研究中心Žemaitis立陶宛军事学院进行。
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引用次数: 1
Constitutional Fundamentals of Conscription and Some Aspects of the Ordinary Legal Regulation of Constitutionality 征兵制度的宪法基础与普通法律合宪性规制的几个方面
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2015-12-01 DOI: 10.1515/lasr-2015-0010
Kristina Kenstavičienė
Abstract Article 139 of the Constitution of the Republic of Lithuania is one of the constitutional fundamentals of state defense and stipulates the defense of the state as the right of citizens on the one hand and the duty on the other. This article of the Constitution gives the legislative power the right of discretion to detail by law the order of the implementation of citizens’ duty to perform military or alternative country defense service. Due to the reorganization of the armed forces into a professional and volunteer army, the issue of some ordinary regulation rules concerning the constitutionality of nationwide conscription, though at present suspended but not abolished, is becoming urgent. Though the Constitutional Court of the Republic of Lithuania presented their ruling on the constitutionality of the suspension of military conscription, it does not mean that all problems related to conscription have been settled. The aim of this article is to analyze the constitutional basis of nationwide conscription as well as the constitutionality of some ordinary regulation provisions related to nationwide conscription. Therefore, the issue to be analyzed is whether nationwide conscription, if it were to be implemented, complies with the constitutional principles of human equality and military justice1. Consequently, the question is posed how the constitutional objective of ensuring the defense of the state determines conscription. Because of the growing employment of the army abroad, yet the dwindling demand for conscripts, it should be explored whether the suspension of the nationwide conscription as a part of the defense reform is further feasible in order to guarantee the defense of the state. In answering the raised questions, the author will analyze the abundant and long-lasting constitutional doctrine of Germany which provides clarifications of the Basic Law, as the legal act of the establishing power, which can doubtless be of assistance in interpreting (nationwide) conscription as established in the Constitution of Lithuania.
立陶宛共和国宪法第139条是国防的宪法基础之一,规定保卫国家既是公民的权利,又是公民的义务。宪法的这一条款赋予立法权以自由裁量权,以法律详细规定公民履行军事或替代性国防服务义务的次序。随着军队改编为专业军和志愿军,虽然目前暂停但尚未废除的有关全国征兵合宪性的一些普通规章制度的问题变得紧迫。虽然立陶宛共和国宪法法院就暂停征兵是否符合宪法提出了裁决,但这并不意味着与征兵有关的所有问题都已得到解决。本文的目的是分析全民征兵制度的宪法基础,以及与全民征兵有关的一些普通规定的合宪性。因此,要分析的问题是,如果实行全国范围的征兵制,是否符合人类平等和军事正义的宪法原则。因此,问题就出现了,确保国家防卫的宪法目标如何决定征兵。由于国外军队的就业人数不断增加,而对义务兵的需求却不断减少,为了保障国家的国防,应该探讨在国防改革中暂停全民征兵是否进一步可行。在回答所提出的问题时,笔者将分析德国丰富而悠久的宪法学说,它对《基本法》作为建制国的法律行为进行了澄清,这无疑有助于解释立陶宛宪法中确立的(全国)征兵制。
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引用次数: 0
World Future Mapping and Scenarios for the 21st Century 21世纪世界未来地图和情景
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2015-12-01 DOI: 10.1515/lasr-2015-0001
E. Vareikis
Abstract The aim of this text is to describe the methods of future studies, its possibilities and limitations, as well as to make some predictions about the real picture of the development of the 21st century. However, the planning is still not very reliable, and far from a “road map” framework. Thus, future studies are still balancing between science and scientific/artistic fiction. The set of methods of future investigation permits one to compose a few or even up to dozens of medium term or long term scenarios of the world’s future. There are a few well-proven laws of social and economic development as well as some partially predictable phenomena in the area of environment, biology, human ethic, etc. No future planning is secure from unpredictable phenomena – “black swans” – and their impact, nor secure from “political decisions” that destroy natural developments in society. So no one scenario can pretend to be absolutely right. The most frequent future scenarios are based on the wish to implement a copy of an existing “happy nation”, to fight undesirable trends, and create some kind of “dream society” while stimulating positives and inhibiting negative trends. The final version of a scenario depends also upon the “human factors”, e.g. knowledge, stereotypes of thinking, as well as the wishes of those who are financing the project. Generally they are “happy end” projects. This makes scenarios rather useless. Only the independent experts that present more realistic and reliable scenarios can help in the planning of medium term and long term futures. Currently many scenarios foresee the so-called American or European way of development, which is in fact the continuation of the existing world order. There is a growing number of publications about the emergence of China (and Russia) as a great power as well as possibilities of a New Caliphate, New Messiah or new Orwellian style regimes.
本文的目的是描述未来研究的方法,其可能性和局限性,并对21世纪发展的真实图景做出一些预测。然而,规划仍然不是很可靠,离“路线图”框架还很远。因此,未来的研究仍然在科学和科学/艺术小说之间保持平衡。未来调查的一套方法使人们能够对世界未来的中期或长期情景作出几个甚至几十个设想。在环境、生物、人类伦理等领域,存在着一些已被证实的社会经济发展规律和一些部分可预测的现象。任何未来规划都无法避免不可预测的现象——“黑天鹅”——及其影响,也无法避免破坏社会自然发展的“政治决策”。因此,没有任何一种情况可以假装绝对正确。最常见的未来情景是基于对现有“幸福国家”的复制,对抗不良趋势,创造某种“梦想社会”,同时刺激积极趋势,抑制消极趋势。情景的最终版本还取决于“人为因素”,例如知识、思维定式以及项目资助者的愿望。一般来说,它们都是“皆大欢喜”的项目。这使得场景毫无用处。只有提出更现实、更可靠的情景的独立专家才能帮助规划中长期的未来。目前许多情景都预见到所谓的美国或欧洲的发展方式,这实际上是现有世界秩序的延续。越来越多的出版物都在谈论中国(和俄罗斯)作为一个大国的崛起,以及新哈里发国、新弥赛亚或新奥威尔式政权的可能性。
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引用次数: 1
The Impact of the Conflict in Ukraine on Lithuanian Security Development 乌克兰冲突对立陶宛安全发展的影响
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2015-12-01 DOI: 10.1515/lasr-2015-0009
Linas Kojala, Vytautas Keršanskas
Abstract After regaining independence in 1990, Lithuania chose a strategic path to integrate into Western organizations, with clear priorities for the European Union and NATO, the biggest military alliance in the world. In Russia, such direction was regarded as a threat to its influence in the post-Soviet area. Hence the article seeks to provide an overview of Lithuania’s security policy, with specific emphasis on the role of Russia, in the recent quarter century. The aim is to distinguish key priorities for Lithuania and assess their practical implementation. Furthermore, the paper seeks to analyse the impact of the war in Ukraine, both on Lithuanian and regional security as well as the development of key security priorities.
1990年恢复独立后,立陶宛选择了融入西方组织的战略路径,明确优先加入欧盟和世界上最大的军事联盟北约。在俄罗斯,这种方向被视为对其在后苏联地区影响力的威胁。因此,本文试图概述立陶宛的安全政策,特别强调俄罗斯在最近25年中的作用。其目的是区分立陶宛的关键优先事项并评估其实际执行情况。此外,本文试图分析乌克兰战争对立陶宛和地区安全的影响,以及关键安全优先事项的发展。
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引用次数: 4
Of Iron or Wax? The Effect of Economic Integration on the Reliability of Military Alliances*** 铁的还是蜡的?经济一体化对军事联盟可靠性的影响***
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2015-12-01 DOI: 10.1515/lasr-2015-0002
Vincentas Vobolevičius, Greta Gerazimaitė
Abstract In this paper we analyze what determines if a military alliance represents a credible commitment. More precisely, we verify if economic integration of military allies increases the deterrent capability of an alliance, and its effectiveness in the case of third-party aggression. We propose that growing intra-alliance trade creates audience costs and sunk costs for political leaders who venture to violate conditions of an alliance treaty. Therefore, intensive trade can be regarded as a signal of allies’ determination to aid one another in the case of third party aggression, and a deterrent of such aggression. Regression analysis of bilateral fixed-term mutual defense agreements concluded between 1945 and 2003 reveals that large trade volumes among military allies indeed reduce the likelihood that their political leaders will breach alliance commitments. Intra-alliance trade also displays a number of interesting interaction effects with the other common predictors of military alliance reliability such as shared allies’ interests and values, symmetry of their military capabilities, their geographic location and domestic political institutions.
摘要本文分析了军事同盟是否代表可信承诺的决定因素。更准确地说,我们验证军事盟友的经济一体化是否增加了联盟的威慑能力,以及它在第三方侵略情况下的有效性。我们认为,不断增长的联盟内贸易为冒险违反联盟条约条件的政治领导人创造了受众成本和沉没成本。因此,密集的贸易可以被看作是盟国在第三方侵略时决心相互援助的信号,也是对这种侵略的威慑。对1945年至2003年间签订的双边定期共同防御协议的回归分析表明,军事盟国之间的大量贸易确实降低了其政治领导人违反联盟承诺的可能性。联盟内贸易还与军事联盟可靠性的其他常见预测因素(如共同的盟友利益和价值观、军事能力的对称性、地理位置和国内政治制度)显示出许多有趣的相互作用效应。
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引用次数: 0
The Dynamics of Lithuanian-Polish Strategic Partnership 立陶宛-波兰战略伙伴关系的动态
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2014-12-01 DOI: 10.2478/lasr-2014-0006
Andžej Pukšto, Ieva Karpavičiūtė, Mindaugas Norkevičius
Abstract The paper aims at identifying relations between the events which influence Lithuanian-Polish strategic cooperation, defining principal aspects of cooperation dynamics, and analysing recent challenges in relations between Lithuania and Poland. For the purpose of analysis the following objectives have been set: 1) to analyse the development of strategic partnership and political dialogue in bilateral relations; 2) to evaluate the importance of security, defence policy, and economic projects in cooperation between the states; 3) to assess the aspect of ethnic minorities in the context of bilateral relations. The authors of the paper seek to review the principal internal and external factors which affect bilateral cooperation between Lithuania and Poland. The following methods of analysis are used in the paper: public statements made by officials, document analysis and discourse formed by the media. The key areas of analysis are the development of political dialogue, strategic cooperation, security and defence policy, economic and energy cooperation, and questions of ethnic minorities in bilateral relations. Presently in the field there is a lack of thorough investigation of similarities and differences of strategic cooperation between Lithuania and Poland.
本文旨在确定影响立陶宛-波兰战略合作的事件之间的关系,定义合作动态的主要方面,并分析立陶宛和波兰关系中最近的挑战。为了进行分析,设定了以下目标:1)分析双边关系中战略伙伴关系和政治对话的发展;2)评估国家间合作的安全、国防政策和经济项目的重要性;3)在双边关系的背景下评估少数民族方面。本文的作者试图审查影响立陶宛和波兰之间双边合作的主要内部和外部因素。本文使用了以下分析方法:官员的公开声明,文件分析和媒体形成的话语。主要分析领域是政治对话的发展、战略合作、安全和国防政策、经济和能源合作以及双边关系中的少数民族问题。目前在这一领域,对立陶宛与波兰战略合作的异同缺乏深入的研究。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review
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