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A bayesian shared component spatial modeling approach for identifying the geographic pattern of local associations: a case study of young offenders and violent crimes in Greater Toronto Area. 确定地方关联地理模式的贝叶斯共享成分空间建模方法:大多伦多地区青少年罪犯和暴力犯罪案例研究。
IF 3.1 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-01-01 Epub Date: 2024-10-30 DOI: 10.1186/s40163-024-00235-5
Jane Law, Abu Yousuf Md Abdullah

Background setting: Traditional spatial or non-spatial regression techniques require individual variables to be defined as dependent and independent variables, often assuming a unidirectional and (global) linear relationship between the variables under study. This research studies the Bayesian shared component spatial (BSCS) modeling as an alternative approach to identifying local associations between two or more variables and their spatial patterns.

Methods: The variables to be studied, young offenders (YO) and violent crimes (VC), are treated as (multiple) outcomes in the BSCS model. Separate non-BSCS models that treat YO as the outcome variable and VC as the independent variable have also been developed. Results are compared in terms of model fit, risk estimates, and identification of hotspot areas.

Results: Compared to the traditional non-BSCS models, the BSCS models fitted the data better and identified a strong spatial association between YO and VC. Using the BSCS technique allowed both the YO and VC to be modeled as outcome variables, assuming common data-generating processes that are influenced by a set of socioeconomic covariates. The BSCS technique offered smooth and easy mapping of the identified association, with the maps displaying the common (shared) and separate (individual) hotspots of YO and VC.

Conclusions: The proposed method can transform existing association analyses from methods requiring inputs as dependent and independent variables to outcome variables only and shift the reliance on regression coefficients to probability risk maps for characterizing (local) associations between the outcomes.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40163-024-00235-5.

背景设定:传统的空间或非空间回归技术要求将单个变量定义为因变量和自变量,通常假设所研究的变量之间存在单向和(全局)线性关系。本研究将贝叶斯共享成分空间建模(BSCS)作为一种替代方法,用于识别两个或多个变量之间的局部关联及其空间模式:在贝叶斯共享成分空间模型中,待研究的变量--青少年罪犯(YO)和暴力犯罪(VC)--被视为(多重)结果。此外,还分别建立了将青年罪犯作为结果变量、将暴力犯罪作为自变量的非 BSCS 模型。从模型拟合、风险估计和热点地区识别等方面对结果进行了比较:结果:与传统的非 BSCS 模型相比,BSCS 模型能更好地拟合数据,并识别出 YO 和 VC 之间的密切空间联系。使用 BSCS 技术可将 YO 和 VC 作为结果变量建模,假定共同的数据生成过程受到一组社会经济协变量的影响。BSCS 技术为已确定的关联提供了平滑、简便的映射,映射图显示了 YO 和 VC 的共同(共享)和独立(个别)热点:结论:所提出的方法可以将现有的关联分析从需要输入因变量和自变量的方法转变为只需要输入结果变量的方法,并将对回归系数的依赖转变为概率风险图,以描述结果之间的(局部)关联:在线版本包含补充材料,可查阅 10.1186/s40163-024-00235-5。
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引用次数: 0
Operationalizing deployment time in police calls for service 在报警服务中落实部署时间
IF 6.1 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2023-12-19 DOI: 10.1186/s40163-023-00198-z
Samuel Langton, Tim Verlaan, Stijn Ruiter

Abstract

Analyses of emergency calls for service data in the United States suggest that around 50% of dispatched police deployment time is spent on crime-related incidents. The remainder of time is spent in a social service capacity: attending well-being checks and resolving disturbances, for instance. These findings have made a considerable contribution to the discourse around public perceptions of the police and the distribution of public funds towards (or away) from law enforcement. Yet, an outstanding issue remains. No investigation has been undertaken into whether findings are robust to the different ways in which ‘time spent’ is operationalized in these studies. Using dispatch data for Amsterdam during 2019, this study compares three operationalizations of ‘time spent’. Additionally, in order to provide some context on the potential mechanisms through which these different operationalizations might yield different results, we report on dispatch numbers per incident category and provide an initial exploration into ‘multi-dispatch’ incident types. We find that general proportional breakdowns are fairly robust to the time measure used. However, for some incident categories (e.g. Health) and incident types (e.g. Shootings), analyzed in isolation, the results are not robust to the different operationalizations. We propose that the mechanism explaining this lack of robustness can be traced to the high dispatch numbers for specific incident categories and types, particularly those with an imminent threat to life.

Preregistration: This study has been preregistered under the title: Scale and composition of emergency reactive police demand in Amsterdam, Netherlands (https://osf.io/qgwv6/).

摘要 对美国紧急服务呼叫数据的分析表明,约 50%的出警时间用于处理与犯罪有关的事件。其余的时间则用于社会服务:例如,参加福利检查和解决骚乱。这些研究结果对公众对警察的看法以及公共资金在执法方面的分配做出了巨大贡献。然而,一个悬而未决的问题依然存在。在这些研究中,"花费的时间 "有不同的操作方式,这些研究结果是否具有稳健性,还没有进行过调查。本研究使用 2019 年阿姆斯特丹的调度数据,比较了 "花费时间 "的三种操作方式。此外,为了说明这些不同的操作方式可能产生不同结果的潜在机制,我们报告了每个事件类别的调度数量,并对 "多调度 "事件类型进行了初步探讨。我们发现,一般的比例细分对所使用的时间衡量标准相当稳健。然而,对于某些事件类别(如健康)和事件类型(如枪击),单独分析的结果对不同的操作方法并不稳健。我们认为,造成这种不稳定性的原因可归结为特定事件类别和类型的派遣人数较多,尤其是那些对生命有紧迫威胁的事件。预先登记:本研究已预先注册,标题为 "紧急反应性需求的规模和构成":荷兰阿姆斯特丹紧急反应性警务需求的规模与构成》(https://osf.io/qgwv6/)。
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引用次数: 0
Predictors of police response time: a scoping review 警察反应时间的预测因素:范围审查
Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2023-11-07 DOI: 10.1186/s40163-023-00194-3
Tim Verlaan, Stijn Ruiter
Abstract Background As rapid response has been a key policing strategy for police departments around the globe, so has police response time been a key performance indicator. This scoping review maps and assesses the variables that predict police response time. Methods This review considers empirical studies, written in english, that include quantitative data from which an association between the outcome variable police response time and any predictor can be observed or derived. This review provides both a narrative synthesis as well as what we termed a hybrid synthesis , a novel way of synthesizing a large quantitative dataset which is considered too rich for a mere narrative synthesis and yet does not allow for meta-analysis. Results The search, screening and selection process yielded 39 studies, which presented 630 associations between 122 unique predictor variables and police response time. In order to present the results in a digestible way, we classified these into categories and subcategories. All methodological steps and the findings are made public: https://github.com/timverlaan/prt . Conclusions Most of the conclusion and discussion focuses on lessons learned and recommendations for future research, as it proved hard to draw any definitive conclusions on causal factors related to police response time. We recommend that future studies clearly describe mechanisms, focus on the components of police response time (reporting time, dispatch time, travel time—or a combination of these), attempt to standardize predictors and outcome variables, and we call for more research into reporting time . We conclude this review with a first attempt at deriving a causal model of police response time from the subcategories of predictor variables we observed in the empirical studies included in this review. Trail Registration : https://osf.io/hu2e9 .
摘要背景快速反应已成为全球警察部门的一项关键警务策略,因此警察反应时间已成为一项关键绩效指标。这个范围审查地图和评估预测警察反应时间的变量。方法本综述考虑了以英语撰写的实证研究,包括定量数据,从中可以观察或推导出结果变量警察反应时间与任何预测因子之间的关联。这篇综述既提供了叙述性综合,也提供了我们所谓的混合综合,这是一种综合大型定量数据集的新方法,这种数据集被认为过于丰富,无法进行单纯的叙述性综合,也不允许进行元分析。结果搜索、筛选和选择过程产生了39项研究,其中122个独特的预测变量与警察反应时间之间存在630种关联。为了以易于理解的方式呈现结果,我们将这些分类为类别和子类别。所有的方法步骤和结果都是公开的:https://github.com/timverlaan/prt。结论和讨论的大部分重点是吸取的教训和对未来研究的建议,因为事实证明很难就与警察反应时间有关的因果因素得出任何明确的结论。我们建议未来的研究清楚地描述机制,关注警察反应时间的组成部分(报告时间、调度时间、旅行时间或这些的组合),尝试标准化预测因素和结果变量,我们呼吁对报告时间进行更多的研究。我们在总结这篇综述时,首先尝试从我们在这篇综述的实证研究中观察到的预测变量的子类别中推导出警察反应时间的因果模型。活动报名:https://osf.io/hu2e9。
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引用次数: 0
Counterfeits on dark markets: a measurement between Jan-2014 and Sep-2015 黑市上的假货:2014年1月至2015年9月的测量
Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2023-10-17 DOI: 10.1186/s40163-023-00195-2
Felix Soldner, Bennett Kleinberg, Shane D. Johnson
Abstract Counterfeits harm consumers, governments, and intellectual property holders. They accounted for 3.3% of worldwide trades in 2016, having an estimated value of $509 billion in the same year. Estimations in the literature are mostly based on border seizures, but in this paper, we examined openly labeled counterfeits on darknet markets, which allowed us to gather and analyze information from a different perspective. Here, we analyzed data from 11 darknet markets for the period Jan-2014 and Sep-2015. The findings suggest that darknet markets harbor similar counterfeit product types to those found in seizures but that the share of watches is higher while the share of electronics, clothes, shoes, and Tobacco is lower on darknet markets. Also, darknet market counterfeits seem to have similar shipping origins as seized goods, with some exceptions, such as a relatively high share (5%) of dark market counterfeits originating from the US. Lastly, counterfeits on dark markets tend to have a relatively low price and sales volume. However, based on preliminary estimations, the equivalent products on the surface web appear to be advertised for a multiple of the prices found for darknet markets. We provide some suggestions on how information about darknet market counterfeits could be used by companies and authorities for preventative purposes, showing that insight gathering from the dark web is valuable and could be a cost-effective alternative (or compliment) to border seizures. Thus, monitoring darknet markets can help us understand the counterfeit landscape better.
假冒产品危害消费者、政府和知识产权持有人。2016年,它们占全球贸易的3.3%,同年的估计价值为5090亿美元。文献中的估计大多基于边境缉获,但在本文中,我们研究了暗网市场上公开标记的假冒产品,这使我们能够从不同的角度收集和分析信息。这里,我们分析了2014年1月至2015年9月期间11个暗网市场的数据。调查结果表明,暗网市场上的假冒产品种类与查获的相似,但手表的份额较高,而电子产品、服装、鞋子和烟草的份额较低。此外,暗网市场仿冒品似乎与缴获的商品有着相似的运输来源,但也有一些例外,比如来自美国的暗网市场仿冒品所占份额相对较高(5%)。最后,黑市上的仿冒品往往价格和销量都相对较低。然而,根据初步估计,表面网络上同等产品的广告价格似乎是暗网市场价格的数倍。我们就公司和当局如何利用暗网市场假冒产品的信息进行预防提供了一些建议,表明从暗网收集的信息是有价值的,可能是边境缉获的一种具有成本效益的替代方案(或补充)。因此,监控暗网市场可以帮助我们更好地了解假冒产品的情况。
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引用次数: 0
An analysis of protesting activity and trauma through mathematical and statistical models 通过数学和统计模型分析抗议活动和创伤
Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2023-10-10 DOI: 10.1186/s40163-023-00197-0
Nancy Rodríguez, David White
Abstract The effect that different police protest management methods have on protesters’ physical and mental trauma is still not well understood and is a matter of debate. In this paper, we take a two-pronged approach to gain insight into this issue. First, we perform statistical analysis on time series data of protests provided by ACLED and spanning the period of time from January 1, 2020, until March 13, 2021. After observing the data, it becomes apparent that employing kinetic impact projectiles is correlated with an increase in protests in the following days. Moreover, it serves as a more accurate indicator of the subsequent death toll compared to the mere number of protests. This leads to the conclusion that the utilization of less-lethal weapons appears to provoke rather than quell protests, exhibiting an inflammatory effect. Next, we provide a mathematical framework to model modern, but well-established social psychology research on compliance theory and crowd dynamics. Our results show that understanding the heterogeneity of the crowd is key for protests that lead to a reduction of social tension and minimization of physical and mental trauma in protesters.
不同的警察抗议管理方法对抗议者身体和精神创伤的影响仍然没有得到很好的理解,并且是一个争论的问题。在本文中,我们将采取双管齐下的方法来深入了解这个问题。首先,对ACLED提供的抗议活动时间序列数据进行统计分析,时间跨度为2020年1月1日至2021年3月13日。在观察数据后,很明显,使用动能冲击弹与随后几天抗议活动的增加有关。此外,与单纯的抗议次数相比,它可以更准确地反映随后的死亡人数。由此得出的结论是,使用杀伤力较小的武器似乎是在挑起而不是平息抗议,表现出煽动性的效果。接下来,我们提供了一个数学框架来模拟现代的,但完善的社会心理学研究依从性理论和群体动力学。我们的研究结果表明,理解人群的异质性是导致抗议者减少社会紧张和最小化身心创伤的抗议的关键。
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引用次数: 0
Characteristics and associated factors of self-reported sexual aggression in the Belgian population aged 16–69 比利时16-69岁人群自我报告性侵犯的特征及相关因素
Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2023-09-16 DOI: 10.1186/s40163-023-00196-1
Evelyn Schapansky, Ines Keygnaert, Christophe Vandeviver
Abstract Sexual violence is a major public health, societal, and judicial problem worldwide. Studies investigating the characteristics of its perpetrators often rely on samples of convicted offenders, which are biased by low reporting and conviction rates. Based on a self-report study in the Belgian general population aged 16 to 69 ( n = 4687), we provide lifetime and past-year prevalence rates of sexual aggression and report the characteristics of the events, including type, target, and the applied coercion strategies. Future research should use behaviourally specific questions that take the perpetrator’s perspective into account to limit interpretation ambiguity which could reduce unintentional non-disclosure of sexual aggression.
性暴力是一个世界性的重大公共卫生、社会和司法问题。调查性侵罪犯特征的研究往往依赖于已定罪罪犯的样本,由于报告率和定罪率较低,这些样本存在偏见。基于对比利时16至69岁普通人群(n = 4687)的自我报告研究,我们提供了一生和过去一年的性侵犯患病率,并报告了事件的特征,包括类型、目标和应用胁迫策略。未来的研究应该使用行为特定的问题,考虑犯罪者的观点,以限制解释的模糊性,这可能会减少无意的不披露性侵犯。
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引用次数: 0
Do police stations deter crime? 警察局能阻止犯罪吗?
Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2023-09-11 DOI: 10.1186/s40163-023-00193-4
Rémi Boivin, Silas Nogueira de Melo
Abstract Purpose The introduction of community policing led to a significant increase in the number of police stations, particularly in urban settings. Police stations are largely assumed to have an impact on crime but there are few studies dedicated to the issue. Methods The concept of deterrence suggests a negative relationship between police and crime: an increased police presence should lead to a reduction of crime. While it is difficult to directly test that relationship, the present study takes advantage of two recent events in Montreal (Canada) to test the hypothesis that the closure of a police station causes an increase of crime in the surrounding area. Andresen’s Spatial point pattern tests and Wheeler and Ratcliffe’ weight displacement difference tests were conducted. Findings While tests suggest that crime geographic patterns were dissimilar pre- and post-closure, none of those differences support the deterrence hypothesis because the number of areas in which an increase in crime was recorded is lower than would be expected by chance. Similarly, decreases in breaking and entering, mischief, theft in or on vehicles and total crime were found, which does not support the deterrence hypothesis. Conclusions The study of hotspot policing led to the belief that police presence needs to be concentrated in both time and space if it is to have a significant preventive impact on crime. It also led to the development of strategies of concentrated policing that encompass a variety of prevention actions aimed at specific individuals, specific crime types, and/or specific areas. Police stations provide something different: a concentrated presence at one point location with the ability to deploy to respond to any crime, at any time, in a particular area.
社区警务的引入导致警察局数量的显著增加,特别是在城市环境中。警察局在很大程度上被认为对犯罪有影响,但很少有研究专门针对这个问题。方法威慑的概念表明警察和犯罪之间的负相关关系:增加警察的存在应该导致犯罪的减少。虽然很难直接检验这种关系,但本研究利用最近在蒙特利尔(加拿大)发生的两起事件来检验一个假设,即关闭警察局导致周围地区的犯罪增加。采用Andresen的空间点模式试验和Wheeler和Ratcliffe的重量位移差试验。虽然测试表明,犯罪地理模式在关闭前和关闭后是不同的,但这些差异都不支持威慑假设,因为记录在案的犯罪增加的地区数量比偶然预期的要少。同样,非法闯入、恶作剧、车辆内或车辆上的盗窃和总犯罪也有所减少,这并不支持威慑假设。热点警务的研究使我们认为,要想对犯罪产生显著的预防作用,警察的存在需要在时间和空间上都是集中的。它还导致了集中警务战略的发展,其中包括针对特定个人、特定犯罪类型和/或特定地区的各种预防行动。警察局提供了一些不同的东西:在一个地点集中存在,能够在任何时候对特定地区的任何犯罪做出反应。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring the impact of measurement error in police recorded crime rates through sensitivity analysis 通过敏感性分析探讨测量误差对警方记录犯罪率的影响
IF 6.1 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2023-07-25 DOI: 10.1186/s40163-023-00192-5
J. Pina-Sánchez, I. brunton-smith, David Buil-Gil, A. Cernat
{"title":"Exploring the impact of measurement error in police recorded crime rates through sensitivity analysis","authors":"J. Pina-Sánchez, I. brunton-smith, David Buil-Gil, A. Cernat","doi":"10.1186/s40163-023-00192-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s40163-023-00192-5","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":37844,"journal":{"name":"Crime Science","volume":"12 1","pages":"1-8"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2023-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43151909","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Measuring the impact of the state of emergency on crime trends in Japan: a panel data analysis 衡量紧急状态对日本犯罪趋势的影响:小组数据分析
IF 6.1 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2023-06-26 DOI: 10.1186/s40163-023-00187-2
T. Shimada, Ai Suzuki, Mamoru Amemiya
{"title":"Measuring the impact of the state of emergency on crime trends in Japan: a panel data analysis","authors":"T. Shimada, Ai Suzuki, Mamoru Amemiya","doi":"10.1186/s40163-023-00187-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s40163-023-00187-2","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":37844,"journal":{"name":"Crime Science","volume":"12 1","pages":"1-16"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2023-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49219428","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Circumstances, policing, and attrition of multiple compared to single perpetrator rape cases within the South African criminal justice system 南非刑事司法系统内多人强奸案与单人强奸案的情况、治安和自然减员
IF 6.1 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2023-06-07 DOI: 10.1186/s40163-023-00191-6
M. Machisa, R. Jina, G. Labuschagne, L. Vetten, L. Loots, R. Jewkes
{"title":"Circumstances, policing, and attrition of multiple compared to single perpetrator rape cases within the South African criminal justice system","authors":"M. Machisa, R. Jina, G. Labuschagne, L. Vetten, L. Loots, R. Jewkes","doi":"10.1186/s40163-023-00191-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s40163-023-00191-6","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":37844,"journal":{"name":"Crime Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-12"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2023-06-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44430368","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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Crime Science
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