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IEEE/IAFE 1996 Conference on Computational Intelligence for Financial Engineering (CIFEr)最新文献

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The gene expression messy genetic algorithm for financial applications 将基因表达凌乱的遗传算法用于金融应用
H. Kargupta, K. Buescher
The paper introduces the gene expression messy genetic algorithm (GEMGA)-a new generation of messy GAs that may find many applications in financial engineering. Unlike other existing blackbox optimization algorithms, GEMGA directly searches for relations among the members of the search space. The GEMGA is an O(|/spl Lambda/|/sup k/(l+k)) sample complexity algorithm for the class of order-k delineable problems (Kargupta, 1995) (problems that can be solved by considering no higher than order-k relations) in sequence representation of length L and alphabet set /spl Lambda/. The GEMGA is designed based on the alternate perspective of natural evolution proposed by the SEARCH framework (Kargupta, 1995) that emphasizes the role of gene expression. The paper also presents the test results for large multimodal problems and identifies possible applications to financial engineering.
本文介绍了基因表达混乱遗传算法(GEMGA)——一种在金融工程中有广泛应用前景的新一代混乱遗传算法。与现有的其他黑箱优化算法不同,GEMGA直接搜索搜索空间成员之间的关系。GEMGA是一种O(|/spl Lambda/|/sup k/(l+k))样本复杂度算法,适用于长度为l和字母集/spl Lambda/的序列表示中的k阶可描述问题(Kargupta, 1995)(可以通过考虑不高于k阶关系来解决的问题)。GEMGA的设计基于SEARCH框架(Kargupta, 1995)提出的自然进化的另一种观点,该观点强调基因表达的作用。本文还介绍了大型多模态问题的测试结果,并确定了在金融工程中的可能应用。
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引用次数: 13
Modelling stock return sensitivities to economic factors with the Kalman filter and neural networks 用卡尔曼滤波和神经网络模拟股票收益对经济因素的敏感性
Y. Bentz, L. Boone, J. Connor
Sensitivity analysis of asset returns to various economic variables provides investors with a useful tool to build portfolios and manage their risk. However, there are strong reasons to believe that stock exposures evolve through time and that factor models involving them are only pertinent if they use reliable estimates of future sensitivities. Both Kalman filtering and neural networks may be used to provide such estimates. While the Kalman filter is good at modelling the time structure of sensitivities, neural networks are capable of relating them to exogeneous variables in a non linear way. Furthermore, because the two approaches perform complementary tasks of sensitivity forecasting, they may be combined to achieve better performances. These procedures are evaluated in a controlled simulation experiment and in a real stock exposure analysis. Stock sensitivities to interest and exchange rates are forecasted for 90 French shares and portfolios are built accordingly.
资产回报对各种经济变量的敏感性分析为投资者建立投资组合和管理风险提供了一个有用的工具。然而,有充分的理由相信,股票敞口会随着时间的推移而变化,而涉及它们的因素模型只有在使用对未来敏感性的可靠估计时才有意义。卡尔曼滤波和神经网络都可以用来提供这样的估计。卡尔曼滤波器善于对灵敏度的时间结构进行建模,而神经网络则能够以非线性的方式将它们与外源变量联系起来。此外,由于这两种方法在敏感性预测方面是互补的,因此可以将它们结合起来以获得更好的性能。这些程序在受控模拟实验和真实股票暴露分析中进行了评估。预测了90只法国股票对利率和汇率的敏感性,并据此建立了投资组合。
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引用次数: 7
Max-min optimal investing 最大最小最优投资
E. Ordentlich, T. Cover
We solve the problem of tracking the best constant rebalanced portfolio computed in hindsight in a max-min optimal sense and relate our results to the pricing of a new derivative security which might be called the hindsight allocation option. This option pays the return of one dollar invested in the best constant rebalanced portfolio computed in hindsight.
我们在最大最小最优意义下解决了跟踪后见之明计算的最佳常数再平衡投资组合的问题,并将我们的结果与一种新的衍生证券的定价联系起来,这种证券可以称为后见之明配置期权。这个期权支付的回报是投资于后见之明计算的最佳恒定再平衡投资组合的一美元。
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引用次数: 0
Building long/short portfolios using rule induction 使用规则归纳构建多头/空头投资组合
George H. John, Peter Miller
We approach stock selection for long/short portfolios from the perspective of knowledge discovery in databases and rule induction: given a database of historical information on some universe of stocks, discover rules from the data that will allow one to predict which stocks are likely to have exceptionally high or low returns in the future. Long/short portfolios allow a fund manager to independently address value-added stock selection and factor exposure, and are a popular tool in financial engineering. For stock selection we employed the Recon system, which is able to induce a set of rules to model the data it is given. We evaluate Recon's stock selection performance by using it to build equitized long/short portfolios over eighteen quarters of historical data from October 1988 to March 1993, repeatedly using the previous four quarters of data to build a model which is then used to rank stocks in the current quarter. When trading costs were taken into account, Recon's equitized long/short portfolio had a total return of 277%, significantly outperforming the benchmark (S&P500), which returned 92.5% over the same period. We conclude that rule induction is a valuable tool for stock selection.
我们从数据库中的知识发现和规则归纳的角度来处理多/空投资组合的股票选择:给定一个关于某些股票的历史信息数据库,从数据中发现规则,这些规则将允许人们预测哪些股票可能在未来具有异常高或低的回报。多/空组合允许基金经理独立处理增值股票选择和因素敞口,是金融工程中的一个流行工具。在选股方面,我们采用了Recon系统,该系统能够归纳出一套规则来对给定的数据进行建模。我们通过使用Recon在1988年10月至1993年3月的18个季度的历史数据中建立均衡的多/空投资组合来评估Recon的选股表现,并反复使用前四个季度的数据建立模型,然后使用该模型对当前季度的股票进行排名。如果将交易成本考虑在内,Recon的多/空资产组合的总回报率为277%,明显优于同期回报率为92.5%的标准普尔500指数(S&P500)。我们得出结论,规则归纳法是一种有价值的股票选择工具。
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引用次数: 9
Application of fuzzy regression models to predict exchange rates for composite currencies 应用模糊回归模型预测复合货币汇率
S. Ghoshray
This research proposes a new regression analysis model based on fuzzy statistics. With the increase in number of variables that interact in a complex economic environment, the accumulation of perfect knowledge for the purpose of prediction has become increasingly unrealistic. Thus, predicting future exchange rates in a composite currency situation has become increasingly difficult. Our research is an effort in that direction in which we try to predict certain key parameters based on the imperfect and uncertain information obtained from the related economic variables. In this regard, the theoretical foundation of fuzzy regression analysis has been extended. Here we utilize the fact that the relationship between the dependent variable and the independent variables is not sharply defined as in the non-fuzzy linear regression analysis. The most important assumption for this work is that the deviations between the estimated values and the corresponding real values of the output variables lie in the imprecision or the ambiguity in the system parameters. The significant contribution of this research is in its efficient modeling of fuzzy prediction analysis system which can be implemented in an uncertain economic environment such as chaotic fluctuations of composite currency.
本文提出了一种新的基于模糊统计的回归分析模型。随着在复杂的经济环境中相互作用的变量数量的增加,为了预测而积累完美的知识变得越来越不现实。因此,在综合货币情况下预测未来汇率变得越来越困难。我们的研究就是在这个方向上的努力,我们试图根据从相关经济变量中获得的不完善和不确定的信息来预测某些关键参数。在这方面,模糊回归分析的理论基础得到了拓展。在这里,我们利用了因变量和自变量之间的关系在非模糊线性回归分析中没有明确定义的事实。这项工作最重要的假设是,输出变量的估计值与对应的实际值之间的偏差在于系统参数的不精确或模糊。本文的重要贡献在于对模糊预测分析系统进行了有效的建模,使其能够在复杂货币混沌波动等不确定的经济环境中实现。
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引用次数: 5
Intelligent hybrid system for data mining 数据挖掘智能混合系统
M. Hambaba
Summary form only given. Database mining is the process of finding patterns and relations in large database. A number of database mining techniques have been developed in domains that range from space and ocean exploration to financial and business analysis. The models generated from using data mining processes are statistical (e.g., linear regression, and nonlinear regression), symbolic (e.g., decision tree, CART, ID3), fuzzy symbolic (fuzzy logic systems), neural (feedforward neural network, recurrent neural networks, and self-organizing memory SOM), and genetic (genetic algorithm based on the biological survival of the fittest). Some scientists are trying to introduce chaos theory and fractal statistics for better data mining. It is the conflict between the symmetry of the Euclidean geometry and the asymmetry of the real randomness and determinism, chaos and order coexist. While these intelligent techniques have produced encouraging results in particular tasks, certain complex problems cannot be solved by a single intelligent technique alone. Each intelligent technique has particular computational properties that make them suited for particular problems. These limitations have been a central driving force behind the creation of intelligent hybrid systems. For example, the combination of neural network and fuzzy logic systems has been applied successfully in loan evaluation, fraud detection, financial risk assessment, financial decision making, and credit card application evaluation. We present a novel hybrid system for data mining in financial analysis.
只提供摘要形式。数据库挖掘是在大型数据库中发现模式和关系的过程。从空间和海洋勘探到金融和商业分析等领域已经开发了许多数据库挖掘技术。使用数据挖掘过程生成的模型有统计模型(如线性回归和非线性回归)、符号模型(如决策树、CART、ID3)、模糊符号模型(模糊逻辑系统)、神经模型(前馈神经网络、循环神经网络和自组织记忆SOM)和遗传模型(基于生物适者生存的遗传算法)。一些科学家正试图引入混沌理论和分形统计来更好地进行数据挖掘。它是欧几里得几何的对称性与现实的随机性和决定论的非对称性的冲突,混沌与有序并存。虽然这些智能技术在特定任务中产生了令人鼓舞的结果,但某些复杂的问题不能仅靠单一的智能技术来解决。每种智能技术都具有特定的计算特性,使它们适合于特定的问题。这些限制一直是智能混合系统背后的核心驱动力。例如,神经网络与模糊逻辑系统的结合已成功应用于贷款评估、欺诈检测、金融风险评估、金融决策、信用卡申请评估等领域。提出了一种用于金融分析数据挖掘的新型混合系统。
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引用次数: 9
Trading mechanisms and return volatility: empirical investigation on Shanghai Stock Exchange based on a neural network model 交易机制与收益波动:基于神经网络模型的上海证券交易所实证研究
Helen Z. H. Lai, Yiu-ming Cheung, L. Xu
We empirically compare the behavior of open-to-open and close-to-close returns on the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SHSE) with different trading mechanisms (call market at the opening in the morning followed by continuous market). We use non-linear regression based on a neural network to study the volatility and efficiency of SHSE. The experimental results have shown that the volatility of the call market is significantly higher than that of the continuous market and the call market is more efficient than the continuous market.
本文实证比较了上海证券交易所(SHSE)在不同交易机制下(上午开盘时看涨市场,然后是连续市场)开盘价和收盘价的收益行为。我们使用基于神经网络的非线性回归来研究上证综指的波动率和效率。实验结果表明,看涨期权市场的波动率明显高于连续期权市场,看涨期权市场的效率高于连续期权市场。
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引用次数: 3
The applicability of information criteria for neural network architecture selection 信息准则在神经网络结构选择中的适用性
C. Haefke, C. Helmenstein
In most of the empirical research on capital markets, stock market indexes are used as proxies for the aggregate market development. In previous work we found that a particular market segment of the Vienna stock exchange might be less efficient than the whole market and hence easier to forecast. Extending the focus of investigation in the paper, we use feedforward networks and linear models to predict the all share index WBI as well as various subindexes covering the highly liquid, semi-liquid, and initial public offering (IPO) market segment. In order to shed some light on network construction principles, we compare different models as selected by hold-out cross-validation (HCV), Akaike's (1974) information criterion (AIC), and Schwartz' (1978) information criterion (SIC). The forecasts are subsequently evaluated on the basis of hypothetical trading in the out-of-sample period.
在大多数资本市场的实证研究中,股票市场指数被用作总体市场发展的代理指标。在以前的工作中,我们发现维也纳证券交易所的一个特定细分市场可能比整个市场效率低,因此更容易预测。扩展本文的研究重点,我们使用前馈网络和线性模型来预测所有股票指数WBI以及涵盖高流动性、半流动性和首次公开募股(IPO)细分市场的各种子指数。为了阐明网络构建原则,我们比较了由hold- cross-validation (HCV)、Akaike(1974)的信息标准(AIC)和Schwartz(1978)的信息标准(SIC)选择的不同模型。然后根据样本外期的假设交易对预测进行评估。
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引用次数: 1
Analyzing shocks on the interest rate structure with Kohonen map 用Kohonen图分析利率结构的冲击
M. Cottrell, E. D. Bodt, P. Grégoire
The goal of the paper is to classify the observed shocks on the interest rate term structure and to verify that these classes of shocks are compatible with the theoretical shocks predicted by the general equilibrium models and, consequently, respect the no-arbitrage condition. To classify the observed shocks on the interest rate structure, we use data of the US bonds market. Our data are daily interest rate structures for maturity from 1 to 15 years.
本文的目标是对观察到的利率期限结构冲击进行分类,并验证这些冲击类别与一般均衡模型预测的理论冲击相容,从而尊重无套利条件。为了对观察到的利率结构冲击进行分类,我们使用了美国债券市场的数据。我们的数据是1至15年期的每日利率结构。
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引用次数: 3
Heuristic techniques in tax structuring for multinationals 跨国公司税收结构的启发式技术
D. Fatouros, G. Salkin, Nicos Christofides
We deal with the problem of international tax planning for multinational corporations. We seek to minimise the overall tax burden of the group, subject to meeting the group's financing requirements, by appropriately structuring the holdings of the group and financing the subsidiaries through loans. We consider a multinational company with profits generated in a number of countries through wholly-owned subsidiaries. These profits are to be repatriated as dividend flows after interest payments have been made. We consider the problem of designing a corporate structure for such a company so that the net amount repatriated is as large as possible. We consider the problem of the source of funding and method of funding, under thin capitalisation rules, taking into account different tax systems and methods of computation of tax credit. Due to complexity, we use heuristic techniques to provide near-optimal solutions for corporate structuring. We provide examples of simulated annealing, genetic algorithms and bionomic algorithm applications to this problem. We define the structure of the neighbourhoods for the local search methods and we present crossover operators for the genetic approach.
我们处理跨国公司的国际税务筹划问题。我们力求在满足集团融资要求的前提下,通过适当的集团控股结构和通过贷款为子公司提供融资,将集团的整体税收负担降至最低。我们考虑的是一家跨国公司,其利润通过全资子公司在多个国家产生。这些利润将在支付利息后作为股息流汇回国内。我们考虑的问题是为这样一家公司设计一种公司结构,使汇回的净额尽可能大。考虑到不同的税收制度和税收抵免的计算方法,我们在资本稀薄的规则下考虑资金来源和资金方法的问题。由于复杂性,我们使用启发式技术为公司结构提供接近最优的解决方案。我们提供了模拟退火、遗传算法和生物算法应用于这个问题的例子。我们定义了局部搜索方法的邻域结构,并给出了遗传方法的交叉算子。
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引用次数: 3
期刊
IEEE/IAFE 1996 Conference on Computational Intelligence for Financial Engineering (CIFEr)
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