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IEEE/IAFE 1996 Conference on Computational Intelligence for Financial Engineering (CIFEr)最新文献

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Finding time series among the chaos: stochastics, deseasonalization, and texture-detection using neural nets 在混沌中寻找时间序列:随机、非理性和使用神经网络的纹理检测
P. Werbos
Summary form only given, substantially as follows. Problems of portfolio management have included several fundamental time-series problems. Parts of these problems are involved with the inevitable noisiness of financial data, parts with interactions and mode-locking among measures, and parts with the basic probabilistic nature of predictive systems in a rich environment. Modern neural networks have been used, to limited effect, to resolve them. Innovative techniques should prove more helpful. Among the fundamental issues for comprehending time series data are: (1) adjusting models dynamically, as errors emerge and corrections are identified; (2) promoting model-wide adjustment; (3) avoiding the tendency of least-squares forecasts to decay with time; (4) locating the range of plausible outcomes; and (5) complex prediction/correction optimization strategies. Techniques pioneered in neural networks have addressed each of these issues. The most common algorithms employed have been backpropagation variants. Recent advances in backpropagation make possible substantial improvements in identifying seasonality, modality and structural stability. Advances in recurrent networks allow context-sensitive adjustment of sharing and "elastic fuzziness", and new forms of reinforcement learning which permit the detection of interaction among dimensions and dynamic adjustment to that interaction. Reconstruction of priors and "deconstruction" of observer effects are also consequences of elastic fuzzy networks and dual heuristic programming.
仅给出摘要形式,内容大致如下。投资组合管理的问题包括几个基本的时间序列问题。这些问题部分与金融数据不可避免的噪声有关,部分与度量之间的相互作用和模式锁定有关,部分与丰富环境中预测系统的基本概率性质有关。现代神经网络已经被用来解决这些问题,但效果有限。创新的技术应该会更有帮助。理解时间序列数据的基本问题包括:(1)随着误差的出现和修正的识别,动态调整模型;(2)促进全模型调整;(3)避免了最小二乘预测随时间衰减的趋势;(4)确定可能结果的范围;(5)复杂预测/校正优化策略。神经网络技术已经解决了这些问题。最常用的算法是反向传播变体。最近在反向传播方面取得的进展使在识别季节性、模态和结构稳定性方面取得重大进展成为可能。循环网络的进步允许共享和“弹性模糊”的上下文敏感调整,以及新形式的强化学习,允许检测维度之间的相互作用并对该相互作用进行动态调整。先验的重建和观察者效应的“解构”也是弹性模糊网络和对偶启发式规划的结果。
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引用次数: 0
Prediction of individual JG bond prices via the TDM model 基于TDM模型的个人国债价格预测
T. Kariya, H. Tsuda
Kariya and Tsuda (1995) demonstrated the predictive power of TDM (time dependent Markov) model for individual bond prices with the end-of-month price data of JG (Japanese Government) bonds with initial maturities of 10 years. The model predicted well the monthly term structure of the individual JG bond prices for the period 1991.1-1992.12 though there are only four parameters in the model, where there are about 80 bonds for each month. In fact, the prediction standard error for the period is 0.9 yen while the estimation standard error is less than 0.3 yen, where the face value of a JG bond is 100 yen. We again test the prediction power of the TDM model with the end-of-month price data of JG bonds for the period 1993.1-1995.12 when the interest rate level was low, and observe that the model loses the predictive power when interest rates change volatilly even though the overall performance is good. The observation follows from the fact that the VAR (vector autoregressive) model for predicting four time dependent parameters in the model, which is modelled based on the cross-sectionally estimated parameters, fails to keep a stable prediction power for months of volatile interest rates. It is remarked that the TDM model is proposed by Kariya and Tsuda (1994) as a time series extension of the CSM (Cross-Sectional Market) model for individual bond prices Kariya (1993) formulated.
Kariya和Tsuda(1995)使用初始到期日为10年的JG(日本政府)债券月末价格数据,证明了TDM(时间依赖马尔可夫)模型对单个债券价格的预测能力。虽然模型中只有四个参数,每个月大约有80只债券,但该模型很好地预测了1991.1-1992.12期间单个JG债券价格的月度期限结构。事实上,该时期的预测标准误差为0.9日元,而以面值为100日元的JG债券为例,估计标准误差小于0.3日元。我们再次使用利率水平较低时JG债券的月末价格数据检验TDM模型的预测能力,发现即使整体表现良好,当利率波动时,模型也失去了预测能力。观察结果来自于这样一个事实,即用于预测模型中四个时间相关参数的VAR(向量自回归)模型,该模型是基于横截面估计参数建模的,对于几个月的波动利率无法保持稳定的预测能力。值得注意的是,TDM模型是由Kariya和Tsuda(1994)提出的,作为Kariya(1993)制定的单个债券价格的CSM(横断面市场)模型的时间序列扩展。
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引用次数: 6
CAFE/spl acute/: a Complex Adaptive Financial Environment 一个复杂的适应性金融环境
Roil Even, B. Mishra
Describes the Complex Adaptive Financial Environment (CAFE/spl acute/), a simulator for complex adaptive systems implemented in Java. CAFE/spl acute/'s object-oriented design makes it suitable for many types of simulation. We give an example of a market simulation where food is traded for gold and explore the effects of adding several kinds of speculators to the system. This paper describes the software structure and design of CAFE/spl acute/, building upon the object-oriented and distributed features of the Java programming language. Although the primary application for this system is in the computational finance area, we envision a much more general usage.
描述了复杂自适应金融环境(CAFE/spl急性/),一个用Java实现的复杂自适应系统模拟器。CAFE/spl /的面向对象设计使其适用于多种类型的仿真。我们给出了一个市场模拟的例子,其中食物被交易为黄金,并探讨了在系统中增加几种投机者的影响。本文基于Java程序设计语言的面向对象和分布式特点,介绍了CAFE/spl /的软件结构和设计。虽然这个系统的主要应用是在计算金融领域,但我们设想了一个更普遍的用途。
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引用次数: 7
Fuzzy logic and genetic algorithms for financial risk management 金融风险管理中的模糊逻辑和遗传算法
T. Rubinson, R. Yager
We discuss the applicability of fuzzy logic multi criteria ranking techniques and genetic algorithms in solving problems concerning financial risk management. Fuzzy logic techniques are useful in soliciting information on user perceptions of risk factors. However, since people are notoriously inaccurate and unreliable in reporting their preferences, we also employ a genetic algorithm to help validate user supplied data. The genetic algorithm helps clarify how and when user preferences effect the perceived desirability of a particular outcome. The genetic algorithm also helps tune the parameters of fuzzy multiple criteria decision models.
讨论了模糊逻辑多准则排序技术和遗传算法在解决金融风险管理问题中的适用性。模糊逻辑技术在征求关于用户对风险因素的看法的信息方面是有用的。然而,由于人们在报告他们的偏好方面是出了名的不准确和不可靠,我们还采用了遗传算法来帮助验证用户提供的数据。遗传算法有助于澄清用户偏好如何以及何时影响对特定结果的感知可取性。遗传算法还有助于模糊多准则决策模型的参数调整。
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引用次数: 10
A corporate solvency map through self-organising neural networks 基于自组织神经网络的企业偿付能力图
Y. Alici
Corporate failure prediction has been used in the application of both parametric classical classification and non-parametric artificial neural network techniques. Although discriminant and logistic regression analysis have been accepted as standard pattern recognition devices, different kinds of neural network technology have recently demonstrated promising outcomes, in terms of accuracy, when compared with results from classical pattern recognition techniques. Most of the neural net studies in corporate failure prediction have centred on implementing a large variety of supervised learning algorithms. Considering stochastic properties of financial ratios due to creative accounting practices, different accounting policies and deviant patterns of so-called healthy companies, little work has been conducted in identifying different patterns of both failed and solvent firms. Therefore, the purpose of the study is to extract solvency maps of UK listed manufacturing firms, by employing self-organising maps. The results obtained from this research indicate that there is marked difference between failed and non-failed firms in terms of financial characteristics although different financial structures exist amongst both bankrupt and solvent companies.
企业破产预测在参数经典分类和非参数人工神经网络技术的应用中得到了广泛的应用。虽然判别和逻辑回归分析已被接受为标准的模式识别设备,但与经典模式识别技术的结果相比,不同类型的神经网络技术最近在准确性方面表现出了有希望的结果。大多数关于企业失败预测的神经网络研究都集中在实现各种监督学习算法上。考虑到由于创造性会计实践、不同的会计政策和所谓健康公司的异常模式而导致的财务比率的随机特性,在确定失败和有偿付能力的公司的不同模式方面进行的工作很少。因此,本研究的目的是通过采用自组织图提取英国上市制造业公司的偿付能力图。本研究的结果表明,尽管破产公司和有偿债能力的公司之间存在不同的财务结构,但破产公司和非破产公司在财务特征方面存在显著差异。
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引用次数: 1
Foreign exchange rate prediction by fuzzy inferencing on deterministic chaos 基于确定性混沌的模糊推理外汇汇率预测
S. Ghoshray
Predicting foreign exchange rates and stock market have been a well researched topic in the field of financial engineering. However, most methods suffer from serious drawback due to inherent uncertainty and the data acquisition problems. In this research, we have analyzed the very nature of the time series data from a pure dynamical system point of view and explored the deterministic chaotic characteristic in it. A fuzzy reconstruction method based on fuzzy multiple regression analysis have been used to predict the foreign exchange rates with accuracy.
预测外汇汇率和股票市场一直是金融工程领域研究的热点。然而,由于固有的不确定性和数据采集问题,大多数方法都存在严重的缺陷。在本研究中,我们从纯动力系统的角度分析了时间序列数据的本质,并探讨了其中的确定性混沌特性。本文采用基于模糊多元回归分析的模糊重建方法对汇率进行了较为准确的预测。
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引用次数: 4
Nonlinear analysis of retail performance 零售业绩的非线性分析
D. Vaccari
A new class of models is proposed for use in economic correlation and forecasting. The new model, termed the multivariable polynomial regression (MPR) model, is essentially a multiple regression model with polynomial and cross-product (interaction) terms. For example, if Y is a function of Q, R, and S, terms can be included such as QR/sup 2/S or Q/sup 3/S. MPR models can be fitted using conventional multiple regression software, although an automated program facilitates the analysis. Only terms which are statistically significant are retained in the model. MPR models are likely to be applicable to low-to-moderate dimensionality problems as are encountered in economics. If the number of independent variables is not too great, MPR models compare favorably to artificial neural network (ANN) models: MPR models can provide a better fit with fewer coefficients; as a result there is less overfitting of "memorizing" of data; the fitting procedure converges absolutely; MPR models result in a simple explicit equation for prediction or analysis; standard statistical tests can be applied to all coefficients and forecast predictions. The technique was applied to correlation of the performance of retail stores to a set of thirteen potential causative variables. An MPR model was developed which was able to explain 82% of the variation in the gross margin of the stores under study.
提出了一类用于经济关联和预测的新模型。这个新模型被称为多变量多项式回归(MPR)模型,本质上是一个具有多项式和交叉积(相互作用)项的多元回归模型。例如,如果Y是Q、R和S的函数,则可以包含QR/sup 2/S或Q/sup 3/S等项。MPR模型可以使用传统的多元回归软件进行拟合,尽管自动化程序有助于分析。只有统计上显著的项才会保留在模型中。MPR模型可能适用于经济学中遇到的中低维问题。如果自变量的数量不太大,MPR模型优于人工神经网络(ANN)模型:MPR模型可以用更少的系数提供更好的拟合;因此,“记忆”数据的过度拟合较少;拟合过程绝对收敛;MPR模型为预测或分析提供了一个简单的显式方程;标准统计检验可适用于所有系数和预测预测。该技术被应用于零售商店的业绩与一组13个潜在的致病变量的相关性。开发了一个MPR模型,该模型能够解释研究中商店毛利率的82%的变化。
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引用次数: 0
Predicting multivariate financial time series using neural networks: the Swiss bond case 用神经网络预测多变量金融时间序列:瑞士债券案例
Thomas Ankenbrand, M. Tomassini
Presents an integrated approach for modelling the behaviour of financial markets with artificial neural networks (ANNs). The method allows the forecasting of financial time series. Its originality lies in the fact that it is based on statistics and macroeconomics principles, integrating fundamental economic knowledge in a multivariate, nonlinear time-series ANN model. The core of the work is a feasibility analysis, which is seldom attempted in ANN work, consisting of a series of different univariate and multivariate, linear and nonlinear statistical tests. The enhancement of prior work is a sensitivity analysis with bootstrap as part of the feasibility analysis. The feasibility analysis evaluates the "a priori" chance of forecasting the defined system and helps in defining the topology of the ANN. The method is applied to a real-life case study with a few data samples.
提出了一种用人工神经网络(ann)建模金融市场行为的综合方法。该方法可以对金融时间序列进行预测。它的独创性在于它基于统计学和宏观经济学原理,将基本经济学知识整合到多元非线性时间序列人工神经网络模型中。工作的核心是可行性分析,这是在人工神经网络工作中很少尝试的,它由一系列不同的单变量和多变量,线性和非线性统计检验组成。对先前工作的改进是将自举法作为可行性分析的一部分进行敏感性分析。可行性分析评估了预测已定义系统的“先验”机会,并有助于确定人工神经网络的拓扑结构。将该方法应用于具有少量数据样本的实际案例研究。
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引用次数: 7
Optimization driven data mining and credit scoring 优化驱动的数据挖掘和信用评分
R. Grossman, H. Poor
An optimization tree approach to the mining of very extensive and complex databases for performance optimizing opportunities is described. This methodology is based on a combination of three innovations: a data management system designed explicitly for data intensive computing; a distributed algorithm for growing classification and regression trees (CART); and a tree based stochastic programming paradigm for the selection of control attributes to optimize a specified objective function. This methodology provides a general technique for optimization in financial applications that is scalable as the number of objects in the database and as the number of attributes per object grow. This scalability allows for a complete data driven analysis of large scale data sets, without the need to restrict attention to sparsely sampled data sets that limits previous methods.
描述了一种用于挖掘非常广泛和复杂的数据库以获得性能优化机会的优化树方法。这种方法是基于三个创新的组合:一个明确为数据密集型计算设计的数据管理系统;分布式分类与回归树生长算法(CART);并提出了一种基于树的随机规划范式,用于选择控制属性以优化指定的目标函数。该方法为金融应用程序中的优化提供了一种通用技术,该技术可随着数据库中对象的数量和每个对象的属性数量的增长而扩展。这种可扩展性允许对大规模数据集进行完整的数据驱动分析,而不需要限制对稀疏采样数据集的关注,这限制了以前的方法。
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引用次数: 9
Computer supported determination of bank credit conditions 计算机支持的银行信贷条件的确定
S. Schwarze, Matthias Lechner, Michael Jensen
In recent years, service companies have received similar problems to industrial companies. An example is the process of credit allocation in a bank. This process is not supported sufficiently through information systems. Thus, the "lead time" for credit allocation is too long which causes high costs. An approach to improving the process of credit allocation is described. The focus lies on tightening the range of individual credit types with the help of standardized treatment and on the management of vague knowledge in the process of credit allocation. Solutions which have been developed in a project with a German bank are suggested for both aspects.
近年来,服务公司也遇到了与工业公司类似的问题。一个例子是银行的信贷分配过程。这一进程没有得到信息系统的充分支持。因此,信贷分配的“前置时间”过长,导致成本过高。本文描述了一种改进信贷分配过程的方法。重点是通过规范处理来缩小个人信贷类型的范围,并对信贷分配过程中的模糊知识进行管理。在与一家德国银行合作的一个项目中,提出了两方面的解决方案。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
IEEE/IAFE 1996 Conference on Computational Intelligence for Financial Engineering (CIFEr)
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