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External and Internal Imbalances in South Mediterranean Countries 南地中海国家的外部和内部失衡
Pub Date : 2018-09-06 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3245188
D. Abdou, V. Monastiriotis
South–MED countries are characterising by non-diversified economic structures. Some are heavily dependent on oil resources to support their economic growth and development; while others are relying disproportionately on real estate, tourism and low-value added export products. This makes them vulnerable to external economic conditions. Together with the wider geo-political situation of the region, which fuels economic uncertainty, this creates significant threats and problems, including with regard to trade deficits and the current account (external imbalances). The domestic political situation is also not conducive to economic stability. Governments in South–MED countries are rather centralised and often lack transparent and good-quality institutions. In the economic sphere, this contributes to exacerbating budget deficits and escalating government debts (internal imbalances). In conjunction, internal and external imbalances both reflect and reinforce the inability of these economies to climb up the value-added ladder, developing more competitive products and specialisations that will help them achieve more sustainable economic growth, balanced fiscal stances and trade account surpluses. Within this context, and largely in response to the new risks that emerged in the financial sphere, with regard to both internal and external imbalances, after the global financial crisis, government policies in the South–MED adopted – sometimes harsh – economic reform programmes as a way to stabilise their economies and manage the associated risks. Adjustment programmes, however, are socially painful and may also have adverse effects on the economy, thus increasing further the fragility of these economies and threatening a further deterioration of their external position. This raises two analytically interesting and, in policy terms, very pressing questions about, on the one hand, the extent and nature of internal and external imbalances in these countries and, on the other hand, the appropriateness of the adjustment policies that were pursued. This study provides an extensive analysis of these issues, focusing on the case of six South–MED countries, namely Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco and Tunisia. It examines in detail the internal and external imbalances of these countries, over the last three decades, both descriptively (through the use of graphs) and econometrically (through time-series econometric techniques). It subsequently reviews the range of adjustment programmes, austerity policies and other macro-economic adjustment mechanisms (e.g., exchange rate policies) that were deployed in these countries to deal with the internal and external threats to stability and, by reflecting on these two lines of research, it provides useful insights about the effectiveness and appropriateness of these policy responses in addressing the problem at hand.
南地中海国家的特点是经济结构不多样化。一些国家严重依赖石油资源来支持其经济增长和发展;而其他国家则过度依赖房地产、旅游业和低附加值出口产品。这使得它们容易受到外部经济条件的影响。加上该地区更广泛的地缘政治局势加剧了经济的不确定性,这造成了重大的威胁和问题,包括贸易逆差和经常账户(外部失衡)。国内政局也不利于经济稳定。南地中海国家的政府相当集权,往往缺乏透明和高质量的机构。在经济领域,这导致预算赤字加剧,政府债务不断升级(内部失衡)。与此同时,内部和外部失衡既反映并强化了这些经济体在攀登增值阶梯、开发更有竞争力的产品和专业化方面的无能,而这些产品和专业化将帮助它们实现更可持续的经济增长、平衡的财政状况和贸易账户盈余。在这种背景下,主要是为了应对全球金融危机后金融领域出现的内部和外部失衡方面的新风险,南-地中海国家的政府政策采取了-有时是严厉的-经济改革方案,作为稳定其经济和管理相关风险的一种方式。然而,调整方案在社会上是痛苦的,也可能对经济产生不利影响,从而进一步增加这些经济的脆弱性,并有可能使其外部状况进一步恶化。这在分析上提出了两个有趣的问题,在政策方面也提出了两个非常紧迫的问题,一方面是这些国家内部和外部不平衡的程度和性质,另一方面是所采取的调整政策是否适当。本研究对这些问题进行了广泛分析,重点是六个南地中海国家,即阿尔及利亚、埃及、约旦、黎巴嫩、摩洛哥和突尼斯。它从描述性(通过使用图表)和计量经济学(通过时间序列计量经济学技术)两方面详细考察了这些国家在过去三十年中的内部和外部失衡。本报告随后审查了这些国家为处理内部和外部对稳定的威胁而采取的调整方案、紧缩政策和其他宏观经济调整机制(例如汇率政策)的范围,并通过对这两条研究路线的反思,对这些政策反应在解决手头问题方面的有效性和适当性提供了有用的见解。
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引用次数: 0
An Opportunity for the Working Class with Increased Markups 为工人阶级增加加价的机会
Pub Date : 2018-07-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3217554
R. Vienneau
This article presents an analysis based on a comparison of stationary states. With technology and relative markups among industries taken as exogenous, the long-period trade-off between wages and rates of profits is determined. A long-period change in relative markups among industries can create a switch point exhibiting capital-reversing. Around such a switch point, a higher wage is associated with firms wanting to employ more labor for a given net output – a favorable occurrence for organized labor.
本文提出了一种基于稳态比较的分析方法。由于技术和行业之间的相对加价被视为外生因素,工资和利润率之间的长期权衡是确定的。行业间相对价差的长期变化可以创造一个表现资本逆转的转折点。在这样一个转换点附近,较高的工资与企业希望在给定的净产出下雇佣更多劳动力有关——这对有组织的劳工是有利的。
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引用次数: 0
Russian Regions in 2017 and Early 2018 2017年和2018年初的俄罗斯地区
Pub Date : 2018-05-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3176827
N. Zubarevich
In early 2018, Russian regions saw their socioeconomic status less problematic. However, none of them has reported sustainable development. Budgets have improved somewhat. Dynamics of income and expenditure less Moscow was rather moderate. Federal assistance is channeled to regions of geopolitical priority.
2018年初,俄罗斯各地区的社会经济地位问题有所缓解。然而,没有一个国家报告可持续发展。预算有所改善。莫斯科的收支动态比较温和。联邦援助被输送到地缘政治优先的地区。
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引用次数: 0
Проблеми формування системи порівнянних показників прибутковості підприємств країн-членів ОЕСР і України (Problems of Forming the System of Comparable Indicators of Profitability of Enterprises of OECD Member Countries and Ukraine)
Pub Date : 2018-04-28 DOI: 10.22178/POS.33-9
Tatyana Chaika
The purpose of the article is to study the degree of coherence of the methods of calculating the operating profitability coefficients in the OECD countries and in Ukraine; the development of practical recommendations for the development of the system of indicators of operational profitability, suitable for comparative analysis at the international level (taking into account the specifics of domestic and international accounting practices). As a result of the study, there was a discrepancy in the names and methods of calculating the profitability of operational activities in the OECD countries and in Ukraine. Before conducting a comparative analysis of the profitability of Ukrainian and foreign enterprises, it is necessary to conduct a preliminary review of the methods of calculating the comparable indicators. Establishing a mutually unequivocal correspondence between the generally accepted international profitability ratios and the procedure for their calculation based on the reporting of National Accounting Standard of Ukraine, systematization of international and Ukrainian names will facilitate their convenient and correct application in comparative analytical work. If necessary, it is possible to use formulas expressing the functional dependence between the profitability coefficients, calculated on the basis of cost and income approaches. Traditionally, Ukrainian analysts are more likely to use cost-effectiveness (markup) indicators, while the foreign ones -- margin returns. Markup indicators always show a higher value for profitability than the margin returns. These indicators are functionally linked, so in the case of misconceptions, there is an opportunity to recalculate. Comparing the results of different companies' operations, it is necessary to take into account the specifics and scope of their activities. For example, the Berry Ratio is appropriate for analyzing distributor companies, and gross profit markup should be used in the analysis of manufacturing companies. Clarification of the advantages and disadvantages of individual profitability indicators will avoid their formal application; will contribute to a clearer and more complete explanation of the results.
本文的目的是研究计算经营盈利能力系数的方法在经合组织国家和乌克兰的一致性程度;为制订适合于国际一级比较分析的业务盈利能力指标制度(考虑到国内和国际会计惯例的具体情况)提出实际建议。这项研究的结果是,经合发组织国家和乌克兰的业务活动的名称和计算利润的方法不一致。在对乌克兰企业和外国企业的盈利能力进行比较分析之前,有必要对计算可比指标的方法进行初步审查。在普遍接受的国际盈利能力比率和根据乌克兰国家会计标准报告的计算程序之间建立相互明确的对应关系,将国际和乌克兰名称系统化将有助于它们在比较分析工作中方便和正确地应用。如有必要,可以使用表示盈利能力系数之间的函数依赖关系的公式,这些公式是根据成本和收入方法计算的。传统上,乌克兰分析师更倾向于使用成本效益(加价)指标,而外国分析师更倾向于使用利润率回报指标。加价指标总是显示利润率高于利润率回报。这些指标在功能上是相互联系的,因此,如果存在误解,就有机会重新计算。比较不同公司的经营结果,有必要考虑到其活动的细节和范围。例如,贝里比率适用于分析分销商公司,毛利加成适用于分析制造公司。澄清个别盈利能力指标的优缺点,避免其正式应用;将有助于对结果作出更清晰、更完整的解释。
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引用次数: 0
Aggregate Multi-Factor Productivity: Measurement Issues in OECD Countries 综合多要素生产率:经合组织国家的测量问题
Pub Date : 2018-03-05 DOI: 10.1787/5C80FAF8-EN
Balázs Égert
This paper analyses for 34 OECD countries the extent to which the calculation of aggregate multi-factor productivity (MFP) is sensitive to alternative parameterisations. The starting point is the definition of MFP used in previous work in the OECD’s Economics Department (e.g. Johansson et al. 2013). They include alternative MFP measures, with human capital included or excluded, with different measures of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) exchange rates, using time-varying capital depreciation rates and different measures of capital stock and labour input (headcount against hours worked). The main result of the paper is that whether or not human capital is included in MFP makes a significant difference for the level and dynamics of MFP. At the same time, MFP measures are less sensitive to other parameters of the calculation.
本文分析了34个经合组织国家的总多要素生产率(MFP)计算对替代参数化的敏感程度。起点是经合组织经济部先前工作中使用的MFP定义(例如Johansson等人,2013年)。它们包括包括或不包括人力资本的替代MFP措施,使用随时间变化的资本折旧率和不同的资本存量和劳动力投入(人数与工作时间)的购买力平价(PPP)汇率措施。本文的主要结论是:人力资本是否被纳入到MFP中,会对MFP的水平和动态产生显著影响。同时,MFP测度对其他计算参数的敏感性较低。
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引用次数: 8
Financial Inclusion: New Measurement and Cross-Country Impact Assessment 普惠金融:新的衡量标准和跨国影响评估
Pub Date : 2018-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3199427
Cyn‐Young Park, Rogelio V. Mercado
This paper introduces a new index of financial inclusion for 151 economies using principal component analysis to compute weights for aggregating nine indicators of access, availability, and usage. It then assesses the impact of financial inclusion on poverty and income inequality. The results provide evidence that high- and middle-high-income economies with high financial inclusion have significantly lower poverty, while no such relation exists for middle-low and low-income economies. The nonlinearities in the cross-country determinants and impacts of financial inclusion on poverty and income inequality across income groups are important to choosing the appropriate policies for achieving inclusive growth in different development stages.
本文介绍了一个新的涵盖151个经济体的普惠金融指数,该指数采用主成分分析方法计算了涵盖可及性、可用性和使用情况的9个指标的权重。然后评估普惠金融对贫困和收入不平等的影响。研究结果表明,金融包容性高的高收入和中等收入经济体的贫困水平显著降低,而中低收入和中低收入经济体则不存在这种关系。跨国决定因素和普惠金融对贫困和收入群体收入不平等的影响的非线性,对于在不同发展阶段选择适当的政策以实现包容性增长具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 74
Modeling Adam Smith's Analysis of the Very Severe, Negative Impacts of 'Projectors, Imprudent Risk Takers and Prodigals' on the Macro Economy in the Wealth of Nations Using a Modified Lotka-Volterra Non Linear Coupled Model of Differential Equations 亚当·斯密在《国富论》中对“预测者、轻率的冒险者和浪子”对宏观经济的非常严重的负面影响的分析——用一个修正的Lotka-Volterra非线性耦合微分方程模型建模
Pub Date : 2017-10-13 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.3053111
M. E. Brady
Adam Smith, based on his knowledge of issues originally discussed by Plato (Socrates) and Aristotle, which were related to his own knowledge of how the Tulip Bubble, Mississippi Bubble and South Seas Bubble were created, recognized that problems of economic downturns, inflation and deflation could be directly traced to the economic behavior of three categories of economic decision maker, all of whom were members of the upper income class in an economic state. Adam Smith categorized these three types of economic decision makers as “projectors, imprudent risk takers and prodigals.” Essentially, all three types of economic decision makers in these categories attempted to make profits (money) without the production of any physical good or service. Such individuals attempted to use other people’s money, by leveraging their debt position to obtain bank loans, in order to manipulate the financial titles to physical assets so as to increase the value of the financial asset, irrespective of any increase in the actual underlying value physical asset. Bankers are particularly attracted to such economic decision makers plans because of the possibility of making very quick, short term profits. Any potential long term losses are simply ignored. Following Aristotle’s very advanced understanding of how money use or misuse can positively or negatively impact the macro economy, the goal of projectors, imprudent risk takers and prodigals is not C-M-C’, but M-C-M’ or M-M’. The latter two types of money use are purely speculative in nature. Smith concluded that these categories of individuals should not receive any access to bank loans since the long run results usually led to bank failure with resulting highly negative outcomes and impacts on the macro economy. Smith then contrasts these types of economic agents with individuals he terms the “sober” people. The “sober” people are middle class, small business owners who desire to obtain bank loans in order to expand their existing business and increase their access to needed resources to make and sell more products. These types of individual are using money in the manner, again pointed out by Aristotle, as being C-M-C’, to increase the amount of physical producer and consumer goods they could make in the future. Smith concluded that the great majority of bank credit and loans should be skewed toward these individuals, since this would lead to real economic growth, as opposed to the speculative, purely financial booms and busts engineered by, for instance, projectors such as John Law, Richard Cantillon or Andrew Dexter, Jr. early in the 18th and 19th Centuries. Smith conceived of the central bank as being independent of the private banking industry and the government. It could then enforce a policy of refusing to let private banks make loans to “projectors, imprudent risk takers and prodigals”, while simultaneously encouraging the granting of bank loans to the “sober” people. The contrast between a Mitt Romney type
亚当·斯密根据他对柏拉图(苏格拉底)和亚里士多德最初讨论的问题的了解,这些问题与他自己对郁金香泡沫、密西西比泡沫和南海泡沫是如何产生的了解有关,认识到经济衰退、通货膨胀和通货紧缩的问题可以直接追溯到三类经济决策者的经济行为,他们都是经济国家中高收入阶层的成员。亚当·斯密将这三种类型的经济决策者归类为“预测者、轻率的冒险者和浪子”。从本质上讲,这三种类型的经济决策者都试图在不生产任何实物商品或服务的情况下赚取利润(金钱)。这些人试图利用别人的钱,利用自己的债务头寸来获得银行贷款,从而操纵实物资产的金融所有权,从而增加金融资产的价值,而不考虑实物资产的实际潜在价值的任何增加。银行家对这种经济决策者的计划特别感兴趣,因为有可能在短期内迅速获利。任何潜在的长期损失都会被忽略。根据亚里士多德对货币使用或滥用如何对宏观经济产生积极或消极影响的非常先进的理解,预测者、轻率的冒险者和浪子的目标不是C-M-C ',而是M-C-M '或M-M '。后两种类型的货币使用是纯粹的投机性质。史密斯的结论是,这些类别的个人不应该获得任何银行贷款,因为长期的结果通常会导致银行倒闭,从而导致高度负面的结果和对宏观经济的影响。然后,史密斯将这些类型的经济主体与他称之为“清醒”的人进行了对比。“清醒”的人是中产阶级、小企业主,他们希望获得银行贷款,以扩大现有业务,增加获得所需资源的机会,以生产和销售更多产品。这些类型的个人使用货币的方式,亚里士多德再次指出,是C-M-C,来增加他们未来可以生产的实物生产者和消费品的数量。史密斯的结论是,绝大多数银行信贷和贷款应该向这些个人倾斜,因为这将导致真正的经济增长,而不是由约翰·劳、理查德·坎蒂隆或小安德鲁·德克斯特等人在18世纪和19世纪早期策划的投机、纯粹的金融繁荣和萧条。斯密设想中央银行独立于私人银行业和政府之外。然后,它可以执行一项政策,拒绝让私人银行向“放债者、轻率的冒险者和挥霍者”发放贷款,同时鼓励银行向“清醒”的人发放贷款。米特·罗姆尼类型的经济与乔治·罗姆尼类型的经济形成鲜明对比,前者是“放映者、轻率的冒险者和浪子”能够获得银行融资,并将其用作投机融资(M-M),后者是由“清醒”的人主导的,他们采用C-M-C的方法来创造真正的物质财富。根据亚当·斯密1776年在《国富论》中开创性的分析,一个非线性的、耦合的沃尔泰拉模型将从数学上精确地说明问题在哪里,以及需要做些什么来防止未来金融市场的投机性崩溃。这将要求中央银行对私人银行进行监督,以防止它们向米特·罗姆尼(Mitt Romney)类型的投机、股票市场金融家-发起人发放信贷/银行贷款,同时要求它们向乔治·罗姆尼(George Romney)类型的清醒商人发放贷款/信贷。一个数学模型被用来说明史密斯的观点,即银行政策如何创造经济增长,同时避免导致泡沫和崩溃的投机金融问题,这是银行家资助的通货膨胀和通货紧缩问题的主要原因,投机泡沫被创造出来,然后随着时间的推移而崩溃。
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引用次数: 9
Explaining the New Class Cleavages: Geography, Post-Industrial Transformations and Everyday Culture 解释新的阶级分裂:地理、后工业转型和日常文化
Pub Date : 2017-08-31 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.3059222
K. McNamara
The election of Donald Trump has been a jarring shock to the American political system. In this paper, I argue that to fully explain the political cleavages driving his victory, and populist trends more broadly, political scientists need to better understand the interaction between material circumstances and cultural identity, rather than seeing them as separate. I begin with the observation that post-industrial transformations have produced a starkly divided economic geography in the US, with cities growing ever more vibrant and rural areas dramatically declining across a variety of important indicators. Although this transformation is widely acknowledged, left unexplored is the impact that this spatial differentiation between regions has on the cultural construction of political cleavages. I propose that the material reality of this pattern of economic activity has generated cultural class bubbles that underlie today’s political polarization. Drawing on the practice turn in political science, I offer an argument about culture as everyday lived experience. This argument helps better account for how economic change translates through culture and identity to become manifest in new political cleavages.
唐纳德·特朗普的当选对美国政治体系造成了巨大冲击。在本文中,我认为,为了充分解释推动他的胜利的政治分歧,以及更广泛的民粹主义趋势,政治学家需要更好地理解物质环境和文化身份之间的相互作用,而不是将它们视为分开的。我首先观察到,后工业转型在美国造成了明显的经济地理分化,城市变得越来越有活力,而农村地区在各种重要指标上急剧下降。虽然这种转变得到了广泛的认可,但这种区域间的空间差异对政治分裂的文化建构的影响尚未得到探讨。我认为,这种经济活动模式的物质现实产生了文化阶级泡沫,成为当今政治两极分化的基础。借鉴政治学的实践转向,我提出了一个关于文化作为日常生活经验的论点。这一论点有助于更好地解释经济变化如何通过文化和身份转化为新的政治分歧。
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引用次数: 5
A Brazilian Adam Smith: Cairu as the Founding Father of Political Economy in Brazil at the Beginning of the 19th Century 《巴西人亚当·斯密:19世纪初巴西政治经济学之父凯鲁》
Pub Date : 2017-08-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3181322
P. Almeida
Historical essay about the career and work of Jose da Silva Lisboa, who, as a Brazilian born Portuguese subject, first read, translated, improved the works of Adam Smith for a Portuguese and Brazilian public. He held important posts as a high official of the Portuguese Crown, and after the Independence, a member of the Brazilian Parliament. Most important of his published works is "Principles of Political Economy", which is an adapted version of Adam Smith's most important thesis, improved over Smithian conception of "productive factors", adding the "knowledge" or "intelligence" element. Later he was given the title of Viscount of Cairu, and as such became the patron of the Brazilian economists.
关于Jose da Silva Lisboa的职业生涯和工作的历史论文,Jose da Silva Lisboa作为巴西出生的葡萄牙人,首先为葡萄牙和巴西公众阅读,翻译,改进了亚当·斯密的作品。他担任葡萄牙王室高级官员等重要职务,并在独立后担任巴西国会议员。他出版的最重要的著作是《政治经济学原理》(Principles of Political economics),改编自亚当•斯密(Adam Smith)最重要的论点,改进了斯密的“生产要素”概念,增加了“知识”或“智力”元素。后来,他被授予凯鲁子爵的头衔,并因此成为巴西经济学家的赞助人。
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引用次数: 0
Implausible Large Differences in the Sizes of Underground Economies in Highly Developed European Countries? A Comparison of Different Estimation Methods 欧洲高度发达国家地下经济规模的巨大差异令人难以置信?不同估计方法的比较
Pub Date : 2017-06-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2999761
F. Schneider
In this paper, first, the MIMIC estimation method is described and criticized and due to a double counting problem a correction is suggested. Second, the measurement methods used for National Accounts Statistics – the discrepancy method and two new micro survey methods – are described and a third, a micro method, using a combination of company manager surveys and their knowledge to calibrate the size of the shadow economy in firms, is presented, too. Third, a detailed comparison of the four micro estimation methods with the MIMIC and the corrected MIMIC method are presented. One major result is that the corrected MIMIC method, especially, comes quite close to various types of lately developed micro survey methods.
本文首先对MIMIC估计方法进行了描述和批评,并由于重复计数问题提出了修正建议。其次,描述了国民账户统计中使用的测量方法——差异法和两种新的微观调查方法,并介绍了第三种微观方法,即结合公司经理调查和他们的知识来校准公司影子经济规模的微观方法。第三,对四种微观估计方法与MIMIC方法和修正后的MIMIC方法进行了详细比较。一个主要的结果是,修正后的MIMIC方法,特别是,非常接近各种类型的最近发展的微观测量方法。
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引用次数: 15
期刊
PSN: Other Comparative Capitalism (Topic)
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