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Enterprise risk management: A bibliometric analysis of research Trends 企业风险管理:研究趋势的文献计量分析
IF 1.9 Q3 OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2023.4.007
Titik Aryati, K. Khomsiyah, C. Harahap
A bibliometric study of 510 enterprise risk management (ERM) papers from the Web of Science Core Collection (WOS-CC) database from 2004 to 2023 is presented in this article. The study's main goal was to give a bibliometric overview of ERM research, focusing on annual publications, references, journals, authors, author affiliations, and nations. Each article's author, document type, publication year, source, volume, edition, pages, number of citations, and references were obtained from WOS in BibTex format. To help the research, Biblioshiny evaluated this data. The survey indicated that ERM research has increased fast over the previous two decades, with a consistent upward trend and increasing pace in the past five years. "What's wrong with risk matrices?" by Cox, LA (2008) was the most cited publication in this topic, and the Journal of Risk and Financial Management was the most influential journal. David L. Olson of the University of Nebraska Lincoln was the most prolific author, and UNL was the premier research institution in this area, according to the survey. ERM research was heavily influenced by the US and several other countries. To further ERM research, the paper recommends international collaboration. More research can refine the identification of ERM research hotspots and emerging trends, according to the report.
本文对Web of Science Core Collection (WOS-CC)数据库2004 ~ 2023年的510篇企业风险管理(ERM)论文进行了文献计量分析。该研究的主要目标是对ERM研究进行文献计量学综述,重点关注年度出版物、参考文献、期刊、作者、作者所属机构和国家。每篇文章的作者、文档类型、出版年份、来源、卷、版本、页数、引用次数和参考文献均以BibTex格式从WOS获取。为了帮助研究,Biblioshiny对这些数据进行了评估。调查表明,企业风险管理研究在过去二十年中增长迅速,在过去五年中有持续的上升趋势和加快的步伐。Cox, LA(2008)的“风险矩阵有什么问题?”是该主题中被引用最多的出版物,而《风险与财务管理杂志》是最具影响力的期刊。调查显示,内布拉斯加大学林肯分校(University of Nebraska Lincoln)的戴维·l·奥尔森(David L. Olson)是最多产的作者,而北卡罗来纳大学是这一领域首屈一指的研究机构。ERM研究在很大程度上受到美国和其他几个国家的影响。为了进一步开展ERM研究,本文建议开展国际合作。报告称,更多的研究可以完善ERM研究热点和新兴趋势的识别。
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引用次数: 3
The effect of customer relationship management (CRM) on business profitability in Jordanian logistics industries: The mediating role of customer satisfaction 约旦物流业客户关系管理对企业盈利能力的影响:客户满意度的中介作用
Q3 OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2023.6.003
Baha Aldeen Mohammad Fraihat, Aseel Mostafa Abozraiq, Ahmad MohD Ababneh, Ahmad Khraiwish, Mohammad Salameh Almasarweh, Yahya saber salah AlGhasawneh
In today's competitive business environment, the implementation of Customer Relationship Management (CRM) strategies is essential for firms to succeed. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between CRM, customer satisfaction, and business profitability in the Jordanian logistics industry. Specifically, the study examines how customer satisfaction mediates the effect of three key CRM on business profitability. To achieve this, Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) was used to analyze data collected from 384 employees of logistics firms in Jordan. The results of the study suggest that CRM positively affects customer satisfaction, and that customer satisfaction has a significant mediating effect on the relationship between CRM and business profitability. The findings of this study have important implications for logistics firms seeking to improve their business profitability through the adoption of CRM. By focusing on the three key CRM (Customer Identification, Customer Acquisition, and Customer Analytics), firms can improve their customer satisfaction levels, which, in turn, can lead to improved business profitability. This study adds to the growing body of literature on CRM practices and their impact on business profitability, particularly in the context of the Jordanian logistics industry.
在当今竞争激烈的商业环境中,客户关系管理(CRM)战略的实施对企业的成功至关重要。本研究的目的是调查客户关系管理,客户满意度和业务盈利能力之间的关系,在约旦物流业。具体而言,本研究考察了客户满意度如何调节三个关键CRM对企业盈利能力的影响。为了实现这一点,偏最小二乘结构方程模型(PLS-SEM)被用来分析从约旦物流公司的384名员工收集的数据。研究结果表明,客户关系管理正向影响客户满意度,客户满意度对客户关系管理与企业盈利能力之间的关系具有显著的中介作用。本研究的结果对物流公司寻求通过采用CRM来提高其业务盈利能力具有重要意义。通过关注三个关键的CRM(客户识别、客户获取和客户分析),公司可以提高他们的客户满意度,这反过来又可以提高企业的盈利能力。这项研究增加了越来越多的关于客户关系管理实践及其对企业盈利能力的影响的文献,特别是在约旦物流业的背景下。
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引用次数: 1
The impact of the logistics performance index on global trade volume between the republic of Korea and major GVC reconfiguration participants in ASEAN 物流绩效指数对韩国与东盟主要全球价值链重构参与者之间全球贸易量的影响
Q3 OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2023.8.002
Seongsuk Park, Edhie Budi Setiawan, Zaenal Abidin, Prasadja Ricardianto
Logistics’ significance in international trade is being noted more and more frequently. This study was conducted to analyze the influence of logistics performance on trade volume between the Republic of Korea (ROK) and member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in order to identify the areas of the Indonesian logistics industry that require improvement to increase trade volume between Indonesia and the ROK. This study focuses on Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines, which are actively responding to the reconfiguration of the global value chain (GVC). The report also includes Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar, which can be viewed as potential GVC competitors of Indonesia due to their considerable manufacturing growth potential. Based on the gravity model, which explains trade volume between regions, this study looked into the effect of the logistics performance index (LPI) of these ASEAN nations on trade with the ROK by analyzing panel data. This study utilized previously published (secondary) data to derive new outcomes. Most of the statistical data were extracted from the World Bank database, IHS Markit, and Euromonitor. The results show that an improvement of LPI can lead to growth in the trade volume between ROK and ASEAN Nations including Indonesia. The study’s insights suggest which logistical areas Indonesia should focus on developing in order to boost trade with ROK and obtain a competitive edge in the GVC reconfiguration.
物流在国际贸易中的重要性越来越受到人们的重视。本研究旨在分析物流绩效对韩国(ROK)与东南亚国家联盟(ASEAN)成员国之间贸易量的影响,以确定印尼物流业需要改进的领域,以增加印尼与韩国之间的贸易量。本研究的重点是印度尼西亚、越南、马来西亚、泰国和菲律宾,这些国家正在积极应对全球价值链的重构。该报告还包括柬埔寨、老挝和缅甸,由于其相当大的制造业增长潜力,可以被视为印度尼西亚潜在的全球价值链竞争对手。本研究基于解释区域间贸易量的重力模型,通过分析面板数据,研究了东盟国家的物流绩效指数(LPI)对韩国贸易的影响。本研究利用先前发表的(次要)数据得出新的结果。大多数统计数据摘自世界银行数据库、IHS Markit和Euromonitor。结果表明,LPI的提高可以促进韩国与包括印尼在内的东盟国家之间的贸易额增长。该研究的见解建议印尼应该重点发展哪些物流领域,以促进与韩国的贸易,并在全球价值链重组中获得竞争优势。
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引用次数: 1
The effect of inflation on income inequality: Evidence from a non-linear dynamic panel data analysis in indonesia 通货膨胀对收入不平等的影响:来自印度尼西亚非线性动态面板数据分析的证据
IF 1.9 Q3 OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2023.4.001
Betty Uspri, S. Karimi, Indrawari Indrawari, E. Ridwan
This research investigates the impact of inflation on income inequality in Indonesia. This study is part of a comprehensive examination investigating which monetary policy can be utilized to lessen inequality. As a central bank objective, inflation can influence the distribution of income, wealth, and endogenous consumption, hence defining inequality. This study employed dynamic panel data analysis for linear autoregressive data using the generalized method of moments (GMM) for both first differences GMM (FD-GMM or AB-GMM) and system GMM (Sys-GMM or BB-GMM) with regional data from 58 cities in 2010-2020. The Arellano-Bond estimator reveals a positive and statistically significant association between inflation and inequality. When inflation rises, the purchasing power of the poor will decline, while the wealthiest will benefit as their non-cash assets proliferate. This study finds, indirectly, that Indonesia’s monetary policy can play a crucial role in lowering income distribution gaps. As one of the nations with an inflation-targeting framework, the Indonesian Central Bank can target the inflation rate by considering inequality. The ITF becomes the most effective monetary policy for stabilizing prices and promoting economic stability. The ITF reduces income inequality by reducing inflation rates. The study also finds that, similar to other emerging nations, economic growth in Indonesia exacerbates inequality. Poverty can be reduced by increased economic growth, but the positive impact of development on the wealthy is significantly more significant than on the poor. Therefore, economic expansion increases inequality.
本研究探讨通货膨胀对印尼收入不平等的影响。这项研究是一项全面研究的一部分,该研究调查了哪些货币政策可以用来减少不平等。作为央行的目标,通胀可以影响收入、财富和内生消费的分配,从而定义不平等。本文采用广义矩量法(GMM)对2010-2020年58个城市区域数据的线性自回归数据进行动态面板分析,分别对一阶差分GMM (FD-GMM或AB-GMM)和系统GMM (Sys-GMM或BB-GMM)进行分析。阿雷拉诺-邦德估计揭示了通货膨胀和不平等之间正的和统计上显著的关联。当通胀上升时,穷人的购买力将下降,而最富有的人将受益,因为他们的非现金资产激增。本研究间接发现,印尼的货币政策可以在缩小收入分配差距方面发挥关键作用。印度尼西亚中央银行作为具有通货膨胀目标制框架的国家之一,可以通过考虑不平等来确定通货膨胀率。ITF成为稳定物价、促进经济稳定最有效的货币政策。ITF通过降低通货膨胀率来减少收入不平等。研究还发现,与其他新兴国家一样,印尼的经济增长加剧了不平等。增加经济增长可以减少贫困,但发展对富人的积极影响要比对穷人的积极影响大得多。因此,经济扩张加剧了不平等。
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引用次数: 0
Determining the price elasticity of demand with and without memory effects using fractional order derivatives: A numerical simulation approach 用分数阶导数确定有和没有记忆效应的需求价格弹性:一种数值模拟方法
IF 1.9 Q3 OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2022.2.002
M. D. Johansyah, Julita Nahar, E. Djauhari, H. Napitupulu, J. Saputra
Demand elasticity is the sensitivity of changes in the number of goods demanded by consumers due to changes in the price of goods. This paper compares the price elasticity of demand with and without memory effect using fractional-order derivatives. This study is designed using the development theory of fractional derivatives for the economic field in determining the price elasticity of demand. The result of numerical simulation using the value of α and p indicated that the price elasticity of demand with memory effect is more accurate than without the memory effect. Furthermore, this study concluded that the price elasticity of demand does not only depend on the latest price (current price) but changes in all prices from a specific time interval. The findings of this study suggest future studies can examine the phenomenon of market equilibrium using fractional-order derivatives.
需求弹性是指由于商品价格的变化,消费者所需要的商品数量变化的敏感性。本文利用分数阶导数比较了有无记忆效应的需求价格弹性。本研究的目的是利用分数阶导数的发展理论,在经济领域确定需求的价格弹性。利用α值和p值进行数值模拟的结果表明,有记忆效应的需求价格弹性比没有记忆效应的需求价格弹性更准确。此外,本研究得出需求的价格弹性不仅取决于最近的价格(当前价格),而且取决于特定时间间隔内所有价格的变化。本研究的结果表明,未来的研究可以使用分数阶导数来检验市场均衡现象。
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引用次数: 0
Analysis of COVID-19 rapid antigen and PCR detection policy 新型冠状病毒快速抗原和PCR检测策略分析
IF 1.9 Q3 OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2022.1.004
Ruey-Ji Guo, Yu Liang, Hung-Shu Fan, Yenpao Chen, Su-Er Guo
After the outbreak of COVID-19, Taiwan has implemented rigorous border control and taken specific measures such as virus detection, contact tracing, and quarantine since 2020. Its epidemic prevention performance has been quite outstanding. Even in May 2021, when the epidemic situation worsens, the people in Taiwan fully cooperate with the government’s control measures so as to successfully alleviate and control the epidemic in less than three months. Among them, the detection policy has played a pivotal role. We analyze and discuss the false positive and false negative problems from rapid antigen and PCR detection in the screening policy as well as the timing of using these two instruments. This paper provides theoretical verification of the appropriateness of screening policy in Taiwan, offering a few feasible suggestions for related policies in other countries or regions at different stages of this and other potential epidemics.
新冠肺炎疫情发生后,台湾自2020年起实施严格的边境管控,采取了病毒检测、接触者追踪、隔离等具体措施。其防疫效果相当突出。即使在2021年5月疫情恶化的情况下,台湾人民也全力配合政府的防控措施,在不到三个月的时间里成功缓解和控制了疫情。其中,检测政策起到了举足轻重的作用。我们分析和讨论了快速抗原和PCR检测在筛查政策中的假阳性和假阴性问题,以及使用这两种工具的时机。本文对台湾筛查政策的适宜性进行了理论验证,并为其他国家或地区在此次及其他潜在疫情的不同阶段的相关政策提供了一些可行的建议。
{"title":"Analysis of COVID-19 rapid antigen and PCR detection policy","authors":"Ruey-Ji Guo, Yu Liang, Hung-Shu Fan, Yenpao Chen, Su-Er Guo","doi":"10.5267/j.dsl.2022.1.004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5267/j.dsl.2022.1.004","url":null,"abstract":"After the outbreak of COVID-19, Taiwan has implemented rigorous border control and taken specific measures such as virus detection, contact tracing, and quarantine since 2020. Its epidemic prevention performance has been quite outstanding. Even in May 2021, when the epidemic situation worsens, the people in Taiwan fully cooperate with the government’s control measures so as to successfully alleviate and control the epidemic in less than three months. Among them, the detection policy has played a pivotal role. We analyze and discuss the false positive and false negative problems from rapid antigen and PCR detection in the screening policy as well as the timing of using these two instruments. This paper provides theoretical verification of the appropriateness of screening policy in Taiwan, offering a few feasible suggestions for related policies in other countries or regions at different stages of this and other potential epidemics.","PeriodicalId":38141,"journal":{"name":"Decision Science Letters","volume":"79 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83799260","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Determination of the natural disaster insurance premiums by considering the mitigation fund reserve decisions: An application of collective risk model 考虑减灾基金准备金决策的自然灾害保险费确定:集体风险模型的应用
IF 1.9 Q3 OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2022.4.002
S. Sukono, Kalfin Kalfin, Riaman Riaman, S. Supian, Y. Hidayat, Jumadil Saputra, M. Mamat
In Indonesia, natural disasters cases have significantly increased from time to time and have the largest impact on economic losses. To avoid losses in the future due to natural disasters, the insurance company needs to estimate the risk and determine the rate of premium that would be charged to the policyholder. In conjunction with the present issue, this study seeks to determine the premium rate and estimate the size claim of insurance by considering the mitigation fund reserve decisions using The Collective Risk Model (CRM). The data was analyzed using the Poisson process with Weibull distribution to determine the natural disaster frequency and losses. The distribution of losses is estimated using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE), and the magnitude of losses was estimated using the CRM. Also, the mean and variance estimators of the aggregate risk were used to estimate the premium charged. The results indicated that expectation and variance of the frequency of incident claims have the same value, i.e., 2562. Also, the loss claims follow the Weibull distribution with the expected value and variance of 5.81309×1010 and 2.5301×1022, respectively. The mean and variance of the aggregate (collective) claims are 148,931,365,800,000 and 7.35×1025, respectively. In conclusion, this study has successfully determined the efficient pure premium model through the Standard Deviation Principle (SDP). SDP provides a much cheaper premium than the Expected Value Principle with the same loading factor. In addition, SDP considers the standard deviation of the collective risk of natural disasters. The implications of the results of the premium determination are expected to be the basis for decision-making for insurance companies and the government in determining insurance policies for natural disaster mitigation.
在印尼,自然灾害时有发生,数量显著增加,对经济损失的影响最大。为了避免未来因自然灾害造成的损失,保险公司需要估计风险并确定向投保人收取的保费率。结合当前问题,本研究试图通过使用集体风险模型(CRM)考虑缓解基金储备决策来确定保费率并估计保险索赔规模。利用威布尔分布泊松过程对数据进行分析,确定自然灾害发生频率和损失。使用最大似然估计(MLE)估计损失的分布,使用CRM估计损失的大小。此外,还使用总风险的均值和方差估计量来估计所收取的保费。结果表明,事故索赔频率的期望值和方差具有相同的值,即2562。索赔损失服从威布尔分布,期望值为5.81309×1010,方差为2.5301×1022。总(集体)索赔要求的平均值和方差分别为148,931,365,800,000和7.35×1025。综上所述,本研究成功地通过标准差原理(Standard Deviation Principle, SDP)确定了高效纯溢价模型。在相同的装载系数下,SDP提供了比期望值原则便宜得多的溢价。此外,SDP还考虑了自然灾害集体风险的标准差。保费确定结果的影响预计将成为保险公司和政府确定减轻自然灾害保险政策的决策依据。
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引用次数: 3
An optimal Islamic investment decision in two-region economy: The case of Indonesia and Malaysia 两区域经济中的最优伊斯兰投资决策:以印尼和马来西亚为例
IF 1.9 Q3 OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2021.10.004
Ferry Syarifuddin, A. Sakti, T. Bakhtiar
In this work, the possibility of cross-border activities between two regions in the framework of the investment contract is viewed as optimal allocation problems. The problems of determining the optimal proportion of funds to be invested in liquidity and technology are analyzed in two different environments. In the first case, we consider a two-region and two-technology economy in which both regions possess the same productive technology or project, but a different stream of return. While in the second case, we examine an economy where two regions (i.e., Indonesia and Malaysia) hold different Islamic productive projects with identical returns. Allocation models are formulated in terms of investors’ expected utility maximization problem under budget constraints with respect to regional and sectoral shocks. It is revealed that optimal parameters for liquidity ratio, technological investment profile, and bank repayment are analytically characterized by the return of a more productive project and the proportion of impatient and patient investors in the region. Even though both cases employ different assumptions, they provide the same expressions of optimal parameters. The model suggests that cross-border Islamic investment activities between two regions might be realized, provided both regions hold productive projects with an identical stream of return. This paper also shows that by increasing the lower return of the project approaching the higher return, a room for inter-region investment can be created. An analytical framework of an investment contract in terms of optimal allocation model is provided.
在这项工作中,在投资合同框架内两个地区之间跨境活动的可能性被视为最优分配问题。在两种不同的环境下,分析了确定资金在流动性和技术上的最佳投资比例的问题。在第一种情况下,我们考虑两地区和两技术经济,其中两个地区拥有相同的生产技术或项目,但回报流不同。而在第二种情况下,我们考察了一个经济体,其中两个地区(即印度尼西亚和马来西亚)拥有不同的伊斯兰生产性项目,但回报相同。配置模型是根据投资者在预算约束下对区域和行业冲击的期望效用最大化问题制定的。研究发现,流动性比率、技术投资状况和银行还款的最优参数是由一个高产项目的回报和该地区不耐烦和耐心的投资者的比例解析表征的。尽管这两种情况采用不同的假设,但它们提供了相同的最优参数表达式。该模型表明,如果两个地区都拥有具有相同回报流的生产性项目,则可以实现两个地区之间的跨界伊斯兰投资活动。通过将项目的低收益提高到接近高收益的水平,可以为跨区域投资创造空间。给出了投资契约最优配置模型的分析框架。
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引用次数: 0
Technique of Accurate Ranking Order (TARO): A novel multi criteria analysis approach in performance evaluation of industrial robots for material handling 精确排序技术(TARO):一种新的多准则分析方法,用于工业搬运机器人的性能评价
IF 1.9 Q3 OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2022.5.001
Bipradas Bairagi
Rank reversal in decision making is a common phenomenon resulting in confusion and ambiguity in selection procedure especially while multiple multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques are independently applied. To eradicate this confusion, this paper proposes a novel MCDM methodology namely Technique of Accurate Ranking Order (TARO). The TARO method is an extension of conventional MCDM approaches. The proposed method commences at the end of conventional methodologies with the final selection values. The proposed technique, using an advanced version of entropy weighting method, initially measures weights of the final selection values. Subsequently, based on the final section values and their computed weights, TARO measures accurate selection indices that determine the accurate ranking order of the alternatives. The proposed technique is illustrated by three real life examples on robot selection problems. The results obtained by TARO justify the validity, applicability and requirements of the proposed techniques for proper decision making under the MCDM environment.
排序反转是决策过程中常见的一种现象,尤其在多个多准则决策(MCDM)技术独立应用的情况下,会导致选择过程中的混乱和歧义。为了消除这种混乱,本文提出了一种新的MCDM方法,即精确排序技术(TARO)。TARO方法是传统MCDM方法的扩展。提出的方法从传统方法的最后开始,最终选择值。所提出的技术,使用一种先进的熵权法,首先测量最终选择值的权重。然后,根据最终的截面值及其计算的权重,TARO测量准确的选择指标,确定备选方案的准确排名顺序。通过三个机器人选择问题的实例说明了该方法的有效性。TARO的结果证明了所提出的技术在MCDM环境下正确决策的有效性、适用性和要求。
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引用次数: 2
Predicting the weekly COVID-19 new cases using multilayer perceptron: An evidence from west Java, Indonesia 利用多层感知器预测每周COVID-19新病例:来自印度尼西亚西爪哇的证据
IF 1.9 Q3 OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.5267/j.dsl.2022.3.002
Y. Hidayat, D. S. Pangestu, S. Subiyanto, T. Purwandari, S. Sukono, Jumadil Saputra
COVID-19 is a contagious disease caused by the coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) that attacks the respiratory tract. On August 14th, 2021, 653,741 persons had been proven positive for COVID-19. The number of patients tends to increase as the number of COVID-19 cases grows. The more infected people, the more cases of COVID-19 there will be. The Bed Occupancy Ratio (BOR) in West Java reached an all-time high of 91.6 percent in June 2021, far exceeding the WHO recommendation of 60 percent, before gradually declining to 30.69 percent in August. Because of the new cases mentioned, the rate of spread of COVID-19 in West Java, the forecast of new cases is very strategic. The number of new cases in this study was predicted using a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP). The data used in this study were sourced from the COVID-19 Task Force. The data is the number of positive and new cases from 34 provinces in Indonesia from March 2nd, 2020, to August 14th, 2021. The results of the evaluation using test data on the number of active cases in the last 19 weeks, namely April 10th - August 14th, 2021, The MLP is accurate in forecasting the number of new cases 18 times for both forecast periods with APE < 15%, with the value MAPE, RMSE and MAE obtained were 5.52%, 1157,61, and 706.811. The results of this study can be helpful for the government as a reference in conditioning hospital bed capacity to deal with active COVID-19 cases in West Java in the next two weeks so that the hospital rejects no COVID-19 patients because the hospital is full.
COVID-19是一种由攻击呼吸道的冠状病毒(SARS-CoV-2)引起的传染病。截至2021年8月14日,新冠肺炎确诊病例为653741例。随着新冠肺炎病例的增加,患者人数也有增加的趋势。受感染的人越多,COVID-19病例就会越多。西爪哇的床位入住率在2021年6月达到91.6%的历史最高水平,远远超过世卫组织建议的60%,然后在8月逐渐下降到30.69%。鉴于新发病例和西爪哇COVID-19的传播速度,对新发病例的预测非常具有战略意义。在这项研究中,新病例的数量是使用多层感知器(MLP)预测的。本研究中使用的数据来自COVID-19工作组。数据为2020年3月2日至2021年8月14日印度尼西亚34个省的阳性病例和新病例数。利用最近19周(2021年4月10日- 8月14日)的活动性病例数测试数据进行评价,在预测期内,MLP对新增病例数的预测准确率均为18次,APE < 15%, MAPE、RMSE和MAE分别为5.52%、1157、61和706.811。这项研究的结果可以为政府在未来两周内调节医院病床容量以处理西爪哇省活跃的COVID-19病例提供参考,以便医院不会因为医院满员而拒绝接受COVID-19患者。
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引用次数: 2
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