Mohamed F. Abd El-Aal, Hasan Amin Mohamed Mahmoud, Abdelsamiea Tahsin Abdelsamiea, Marwa Samir Hegazy
The study aims to explore the impact of renewable, nonrenewable, and nuclear energy consumption on global gross domestic product (GDP) growth through machine learning algorithms. The findings reveal that renewable energy consumption is the most influential variable, contributing to a predicted 67.5% global GDP growth. In contrast, nuclear energy consumption contributes 17.8%, and non-renewable energy consumption contributes 14.6%. Notably, the relationship between nuclear energy consumption and global economic growth is positive; there is a negative relation in conjunction with renewable energy consumption. However, the association with non-renewable energy is consistently fixed. These results suggest that an increased reliance on renewable energy may necessitate a trade-off, potentially leading to a reduction in global GDP growth despite the positive contributions from renewable sources.
本研究旨在通过机器学习算法探讨可再生能源、不可再生能源和核能消费对全球国内生产总值（GDP）增长的影响。研究结果表明，可再生能源消费是最具影响力的变量，对全球 GDP 增长的预测贡献率为 67.5%。相比之下，核能消费占 17.8%，不可再生能源消费占 14.6%。值得注意的是，核能消费与全球经济增长之间的关系是正的；与可再生能源消费之间的关系是负的。然而，与不可再生能源的关系始终是固定的。这些结果表明，增加对可再生能源的依赖可能需要进行权衡，尽管可再生能源做出了积极贡献，但仍有可能导致全球 GDP 增长下降。
{"title":"Leveraging Machine Learning to Assess the Impact of Energy Consumption on Global GDP Growth: What Actions should be taken Globally toward Environmental Concerns?","authors":"Mohamed F. Abd El-Aal, Hasan Amin Mohamed Mahmoud, Abdelsamiea Tahsin Abdelsamiea, Marwa Samir Hegazy","doi":"10.32479/ijeep.15833","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.15833","url":null,"abstract":"The study aims to explore the impact of renewable, nonrenewable, and nuclear energy consumption on global gross domestic product (GDP) growth through machine learning algorithms. The findings reveal that renewable energy consumption is the most influential variable, contributing to a predicted 67.5% global GDP growth. In contrast, nuclear energy consumption contributes 17.8%, and non-renewable energy consumption contributes 14.6%. Notably, the relationship between nuclear energy consumption and global economic growth is positive; there is a negative relation in conjunction with renewable energy consumption. However, the association with non-renewable energy is consistently fixed. These results suggest that an increased reliance on renewable energy may necessitate a trade-off, potentially leading to a reduction in global GDP growth despite the positive contributions from renewable sources.","PeriodicalId":38194,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy","volume":" 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141673533","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A. Sam, M. Appiah, Elikplim Ameko, Beverly Akomea Bonsu
Solar energy is an environmentally friendly and reliable source of electricity and contributes immensely towards achieving Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 7. The quantity of solar radiation reaching the earth's surface offers enough prospects for solar and green energy investments. This study aims to develop an integrated model to explain the effects of sustainability-enabled initiatives on sustainable investment adoption and solar energy investment and to ascertain whether the relationship between solar energy investment and environmental uncertainty is parabolic (quadratic) or linear. Cross-sectional survey data from private companies in Ghana has been used. SMART-PLS version 3.3.9 has been used to analyse and confirm our hypotheses. The results showed that sustainability initiatives (e.g., supply chain integration, institutionalization, supply chain resilience, innovativeness, climate literacy, and justice) were found to be linear. Moreover, sustainable investment adoption moderates the relationships between various factors identified and solar energy investment. Again, environmental uncertainty confirmed a quadratic relationship with solar energy investment. By implications, this paper is the first of its kind to uniquely apply quadratic analysis in the context of renewable energy investment and sustainable energy in Ghana. The newly developed integrated model could be used to explain the drivers of sustainable investment adoption and solar energy investment in Ghana and beyond. Besides, the results will stimulate and re-enforce Ghana’s renewable energy policies (Act 832 and Act 1045) towards the realisation of SDGs 7 and 13.
{"title":"Smart Initiatives to Drive Solar Energy Investments under Environmental Uncertainty: Exploring Linear and Quadratic Relationships","authors":"A. Sam, M. Appiah, Elikplim Ameko, Beverly Akomea Bonsu","doi":"10.32479/ijeep.16331","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.16331","url":null,"abstract":"Solar energy is an environmentally friendly and reliable source of electricity and contributes immensely towards achieving Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 7. The quantity of solar radiation reaching the earth's surface offers enough prospects for solar and green energy investments. This study aims to develop an integrated model to explain the effects of sustainability-enabled initiatives on sustainable investment adoption and solar energy investment and to ascertain whether the relationship between solar energy investment and environmental uncertainty is parabolic (quadratic) or linear. Cross-sectional survey data from private companies in Ghana has been used. SMART-PLS version 3.3.9 has been used to analyse and confirm our hypotheses. The results showed that sustainability initiatives (e.g., supply chain integration, institutionalization, supply chain resilience, innovativeness, climate literacy, and justice) were found to be linear. Moreover, sustainable investment adoption moderates the relationships between various factors identified and solar energy investment. Again, environmental uncertainty confirmed a quadratic relationship with solar energy investment. By implications, this paper is the first of its kind to uniquely apply quadratic analysis in the context of renewable energy investment and sustainable energy in Ghana. The newly developed integrated model could be used to explain the drivers of sustainable investment adoption and solar energy investment in Ghana and beyond. Besides, the results will stimulate and re-enforce Ghana’s renewable energy policies (Act 832 and Act 1045) towards the realisation of SDGs 7 and 13.","PeriodicalId":38194,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy","volume":" 32","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141673592","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A. Abubakirova, Lyazzat Kudabayeva, Aizhan Omarova, Zhanargul Taskinbaikyzy, B. Saubetova
The aim of the study is to analyze the effects of changes in oil prices, which have an important place among energy resources, on the stock market indices of G7 countries. Since they can be considered as a barometer of the macroeconomic indicators of the G7 countries, the stock market indices of these countries were included in this study and their impact on the fluctuations in oil prices was examined. G7 countries produce 85% of the world's production and constitute 66% of the world's population. 75% of international trade is carried out by the member countries of this group. The share of these countries in international investment is 80%. In this study, the impact of oil price changes on G7 country stock market indices was investigated with monthly frequency data between January 2010 and December 2023. This effect was tried to be found by applying Granger causality test and cointegration test. According to the findings obtained in this study, it was understood that there was no cointegration and the variables did not balance in the long run. On the other hand, according to the Granger causality test, it was determined that the crude oil price was the cause of the stock markets of G7 countries with a significance of 10%.
{"title":"Effects of Fluctuations in oil Prıces on G7 Country Stock Exchanges","authors":"A. Abubakirova, Lyazzat Kudabayeva, Aizhan Omarova, Zhanargul Taskinbaikyzy, B. Saubetova","doi":"10.32479/ijeep.16185","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.16185","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of the study is to analyze the effects of changes in oil prices, which have an important place among energy resources, on the stock market indices of G7 countries. Since they can be considered as a barometer of the macroeconomic indicators of the G7 countries, the stock market indices of these countries were included in this study and their impact on the fluctuations in oil prices was examined. G7 countries produce 85% of the world's production and constitute 66% of the world's population. 75% of international trade is carried out by the member countries of this group. The share of these countries in international investment is 80%. In this study, the impact of oil price changes on G7 country stock market indices was investigated with monthly frequency data between January 2010 and December 2023. This effect was tried to be found by applying Granger causality test and cointegration test. According to the findings obtained in this study, it was understood that there was no cointegration and the variables did not balance in the long run. On the other hand, according to the Granger causality test, it was determined that the crude oil price was the cause of the stock markets of G7 countries with a significance of 10%.","PeriodicalId":38194,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy","volume":" 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141674689","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study analyzes consumer preferences for EVs using the discrete choice experiment and explores the attitudes toward possible policies on EV stimulation. The 362 participants with a driving license and living in Bangkok participated in the questionnaire survey. The information on the questionnaire includes their characteristics, car usage behavior, environmental preference, and preference for policies on EV stimulation. The binary logit regression analysis reveals that the number of vehicle possessions, ownership of parking space, the price of EV, and fuel cost per month affect the decision to purchase EVs. On the other hand, being female, income, years of car use, maximum driving range of EV, and coverage area of chargers increase the probability of EV purchase. Environmental preferences have a strong positive correlation with EV purchases. Policies involving personal interest and EV sustainability also positively correlate with EV purchases. However, the extreme ecological perspective has an adverse effect. The analysis of the preferences for policies on EV stimulation reveals that monetary policies are the most preferred choice since the participants prioritize the policies favorable to their benefits.
{"title":"The Analysis of Consumer Preference on EV Adoption Barriers and Policy Stimulations in Thailand","authors":"Theeradol Techa-Erawan, Watcharapong Ratisukpimol, Pongsun Bunditsakulchai","doi":"10.32479/ijeep.15987","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.15987","url":null,"abstract":"This study analyzes consumer preferences for EVs using the discrete choice experiment and explores the attitudes toward possible policies on EV stimulation. The 362 participants with a driving license and living in Bangkok participated in the questionnaire survey. The information on the questionnaire includes their characteristics, car usage behavior, environmental preference, and preference for policies on EV stimulation. The binary logit regression analysis reveals that the number of vehicle possessions, ownership of parking space, the price of EV, and fuel cost per month affect the decision to purchase EVs. On the other hand, being female, income, years of car use, maximum driving range of EV, and coverage area of chargers increase the probability of EV purchase. Environmental preferences have a strong positive correlation with EV purchases. Policies involving personal interest and EV sustainability also positively correlate with EV purchases. However, the extreme ecological perspective has an adverse effect. The analysis of the preferences for policies on EV stimulation reveals that monetary policies are the most preferred choice since the participants prioritize the policies favorable to their benefits.","PeriodicalId":38194,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy","volume":" 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141676232","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The electricity sector faces significant risks from devastating cyber events that can exacerbate global and regional instabilities, amplifying economic and security vulnerabilities worldwide. These attacks directly impact countries’ electrical infrastructure, security policies, and everyday economic transactions. To comprehensively address these challenges, this study aims to conduct a thorough investigation into the politic implications of cyber threats within the realm of electrical energy, spanning both household use and production. The study concludes that the resilience of the electricity ecosystem remains low, indicating vulnerabilities. Furthermore, there’s an inadequacy in the availability of cyber personnel within the markets. Additionally, an established international cybersecurity culture is lacking, highlighting a need for collective efforts to strengthen global cybersecurity measures in the electricity sector. Therefore, countries have to identify weaknesses in electricity networks and develop strategies to safeguard their infrastructure, serving as a foundational basis for the formulation of national and international strategic policies.
{"title":"The Strategic Importance of Cyber Security in Electric Energy Policies","authors":"Baybarshan Ali Kazanci","doi":"10.32479/ijeep.16244","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.16244","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000\u0000\u0000The electricity sector faces significant risks from devastating cyber events that can exacerbate global and regional instabilities, amplifying economic and security vulnerabilities worldwide. These attacks directly impact countries’ electrical infrastructure, security policies, and everyday economic transactions. To comprehensively address these challenges, this study aims to conduct a thorough investigation into the politic implications of cyber threats within the realm of electrical energy, spanning both household use and production. The study concludes that the resilience of the electricity ecosystem remains low, indicating vulnerabilities. Furthermore, there’s an inadequacy in the availability of cyber personnel within the markets. Additionally, an established international cybersecurity culture is lacking, highlighting a need for collective efforts to strengthen global cybersecurity measures in the electricity sector. Therefore, countries have to identify weaknesses in electricity networks and develop strategies to safeguard their infrastructure, serving as a foundational basis for the formulation of national and international strategic policies.\u0000\u0000\u0000","PeriodicalId":38194,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy","volume":" 14","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141676359","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Hydrogen plays a key role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, enabling decarbonization of the energy, transport and industrial sectors. Its importance in the energy balance will increase for several reasons. Firstly, in the modern world there is a transition to carbon-free energy, which stimulates the use of hydrogen. Secondly, a balanced system based on renewable energy sources is important to ensure stability and reliability of energy supply. The purpose of the study is to study the prospects for hydrogen production for the transition to sustainable development of the Azerbaijani economy. During the study, research methods such as graphical analysis, comparison of blue and green hydrogen production scenarios, analysis and synthesis method, and dynamic comparison method were used. The results of the study showed that in order to transition to a hydrogen economy in Azerbaijan, it is preferable to start with the production of blue hydrogen. There is potential for this in the form of rich natural gas reserves (confirmed gas reserves are 2.6 trillion cubic meters). With the advent of new technologies and lower production costs, a transition to green hydrogen will be possible. For this purpose, the country has a technical potential for renewable energy sources amounting to 135 GW on land and 157 GW at sea. The conclusions are that in order to transition to a hydrogen economy in Azerbaijan, it is necessary to adopt a strategy for transitioning the economy to a hydrogen basis, developing infrastructure, attracting investments in the modernization of chemical enterprises, and switching public transport to the use of hydrogen.
{"title":"Opportunities and Prospects for Hydrogen Production in Azerbaijan: Steps towards the Transition to a Hydrogen Economy","authors":"Lala Hamidova, E. Samedova","doi":"10.32479/ijeep.16380","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.16380","url":null,"abstract":"Hydrogen plays a key role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, enabling decarbonization of the energy, transport and industrial sectors. Its importance in the energy balance will increase for several reasons. Firstly, in the modern world there is a transition to carbon-free energy, which stimulates the use of hydrogen. Secondly, a balanced system based on renewable energy sources is important to ensure stability and reliability of energy supply. The purpose of the study is to study the prospects for hydrogen production for the transition to sustainable development of the Azerbaijani economy. During the study, research methods such as graphical analysis, comparison of blue and green hydrogen production scenarios, analysis and synthesis method, and dynamic comparison method were used. The results of the study showed that in order to transition to a hydrogen economy in Azerbaijan, it is preferable to start with the production of blue hydrogen. There is potential for this in the form of rich natural gas reserves (confirmed gas reserves are 2.6 trillion cubic meters). With the advent of new technologies and lower production costs, a transition to green hydrogen will be possible. For this purpose, the country has a technical potential for renewable energy sources amounting to 135 GW on land and 157 GW at sea. The conclusions are that in order to transition to a hydrogen economy in Azerbaijan, it is necessary to adopt a strategy for transitioning the economy to a hydrogen basis, developing infrastructure, attracting investments in the modernization of chemical enterprises, and switching public transport to the use of hydrogen.","PeriodicalId":38194,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy","volume":" 13","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141676577","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
S. I. Nikensari, Ega Nurdiyanto, Wong Sing Yun, Siti Fatimah Zahra
Trade and climate change are thought to be closely related. Sustainable trade cooperation with European Union (EU) countries is often linked to the issue of climate action and low carbon emissions. This research aims to examine the low carbon economy and the economic distance of ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand) towards their exports to EU countries. A low carbon economy is measured by the intensity of GHG emissions, analysed from three scopes, namely CO2 from manufacturing and industrial processes (part of scope-1), CO2 from electricity consumption (part of scope-2), and CO2 from waste (part of scope- 3). Data source from Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) and other sources, 2012-2022. Panel data regression with a gravity model is used in this analysis. The results show the implementation of a low carbon economy in ASEAN, so that in the future there seems to be continued trade between ASEAN countries and the EU. This is proven by the negative influence of carbon emission intensity scope-2, scope-3, and economic distance on increasing ASEAN exports, except scope-1. Low intensity means there is efficient use of resources for the economy, and low economic distance means trade is competitive.
{"title":"Sustainable Exports to the European Union from ASEAN Countries: Is There an Impact of Low Carbon Economy?","authors":"S. I. Nikensari, Ega Nurdiyanto, Wong Sing Yun, Siti Fatimah Zahra","doi":"10.32479/ijeep.16389","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.16389","url":null,"abstract":"Trade and climate change are thought to be closely related. Sustainable trade cooperation with European Union (EU) countries is often linked to the issue of climate action and low carbon emissions. This research aims to examine the low carbon economy and the economic distance of ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand) towards their exports to EU countries. A low carbon economy is measured by the intensity of GHG emissions, analysed from three scopes, namely CO2 from manufacturing and industrial processes (part of scope-1), CO2 from electricity consumption (part of scope-2), and CO2 from waste (part of scope- 3). Data source from Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) and other sources, 2012-2022. Panel data regression with a gravity model is used in this analysis. The results show the implementation of a low carbon economy in ASEAN, so that in the future there seems to be continued trade between ASEAN countries and the EU. This is proven by the negative influence of carbon emission intensity scope-2, scope-3, and economic distance on increasing ASEAN exports, except scope-1. Low intensity means there is efficient use of resources for the economy, and low economic distance means trade is competitive.","PeriodicalId":38194,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy","volume":" 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141676886","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In an era dominated by increasing global challenges and market volatilities, this study, firstly, embarks on an in-depth exploration of volatility transmission across clean energy stocks, crude oil and financial markets, emphasizing the underlying currents of geopolitical tensions. By using the advanced Multivariate Dynamic Conditional Correlation (MV-DCC) GARCH model, we unravel a landscape where volatility spillovers exhibit a distinct bidirectional nature, and geopolitical risk exerts a substantial impact, cascading from the oil market to financial markets and ultimately to clean energy stocks. Our findings underline the strategic importance of overweighting clean energy assets in a dual-asset portfolio that includes oil and financial equities to enhance investment strategies in turbulent market conditions. Secondly, we investigate the predictive power of oil and market-implied volatilities in forecasting clean energy market volatility by introducing a novel approach that melds the robustness of GARCH models with the flexibility of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, creating an innovative hybrid GARCH-LSTM framework. The empirical results demonstrate that this hybrid model significantly outstrips the predictive capabilities of traditional standalone models. Notably, while oil and market-implied volatilities substantially enhance prediction accuracy, the inclusion of historical data does not yield additional predictive value. The implications of our research extend beyond the analytical domain, resonating with financial practitioners and environmentally conscious investors who seek precision in valuation and foresight in market trends. For policymakers, the insights provided offer strategic guidance for developing robust clean energy policies. Overall, our research contributes a fresh perspective to the discourse on renewable energy investment, volatility forecasting, and the interplay between market dynamics and geopolitical risks.
{"title":"Interplay of Volatility and Geopolitical Tensions in Clean Energy Markets: A Comprehensive GARCH-LSTM Forecasting Approach","authors":"Hatem Brik, Jihene El Ouakdi","doi":"10.32479/ijeep.16075","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.16075","url":null,"abstract":"In an era dominated by increasing global challenges and market volatilities, this study, firstly, embarks on an in-depth exploration of volatility transmission across clean energy stocks, crude oil and financial markets, emphasizing the underlying currents of geopolitical tensions. By using the advanced Multivariate Dynamic Conditional Correlation (MV-DCC) GARCH model, we unravel a landscape where volatility spillovers exhibit a distinct bidirectional nature, and geopolitical risk exerts a substantial impact, cascading from the oil market to financial markets and ultimately to clean energy stocks. Our findings underline the strategic importance of overweighting clean energy assets in a dual-asset portfolio that includes oil and financial equities to enhance investment strategies in turbulent market conditions. Secondly, we investigate the predictive power of oil and market-implied volatilities in forecasting clean energy market volatility by introducing a novel approach that melds the robustness of GARCH models with the flexibility of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, creating an innovative hybrid GARCH-LSTM framework. The empirical results demonstrate that this hybrid model significantly outstrips the predictive capabilities of traditional standalone models. Notably, while oil and market-implied volatilities substantially enhance prediction accuracy, the inclusion of historical data does not yield additional predictive value. The implications of our research extend beyond the analytical domain, resonating with financial practitioners and environmentally conscious investors who seek precision in valuation and foresight in market trends. For policymakers, the insights provided offer strategic guidance for developing robust clean energy policies. Overall, our research contributes a fresh perspective to the discourse on renewable energy investment, volatility forecasting, and the interplay between market dynamics and geopolitical risks.","PeriodicalId":38194,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy","volume":" 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141674227","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Ali Umar Ahmad, Atiku Muhammad Abubakar, N. Senan, Uzairu Muhammad Gwadabe, B. Mohammed, Maikudi Muhammad, Abdulrahman Mohammed Hasan AL-Yazidi, Bashir Yakubu Sani, Mustapha Jamiu, Umar Aliyu Mustapha
This study investigates the asymmetric impacts of financial development, renewable energy consumption, and trade openness on economic growth in D-8 Islamic countries from 1970 to 2022, using advanced panel data techniques. The findings reveal long-run equilibrium relationships, with financial development and trade openness positively affecting gross domestic product (GDP) growth, while renewable energy exhibits an unexpected negative coefficient. The non-linear autoregressive distributed lag estimates uncover asymmetries, with larger GDP contractions from downside shocks in financial development and trade openness. Renewable energy shows growth penalties from negative changes but symmetric upside benefits. The results highlight the importance of well-developed financial systems, strategic renewable investments, and trade integration for sustainable growth. Policymakers should focus on financial reforms, renewable project facilitation, and reducing trade barriers, considering asymmetric impacts. This study contributes novel empirical evidence on asymmetric dynamics among these variables in D-8 countries, extending the literature through recent non-linear panel modeling techniques and demonstrating the merits of accounting for asymmetries. The combination of methods offers a robust and fresh perspective.
{"title":"Examining the Asymmetric Effects of Renewable Energy Use, Financial Development, and Trade Openness on Economic Growth in D-8 Islamic Countries","authors":"Ali Umar Ahmad, Atiku Muhammad Abubakar, N. Senan, Uzairu Muhammad Gwadabe, B. Mohammed, Maikudi Muhammad, Abdulrahman Mohammed Hasan AL-Yazidi, Bashir Yakubu Sani, Mustapha Jamiu, Umar Aliyu Mustapha","doi":"10.32479/ijeep.16077","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.16077","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000\u0000\u0000This study investigates the asymmetric impacts of financial development, renewable energy consumption, and trade openness on economic growth in D-8 Islamic countries from 1970 to 2022, using advanced panel data techniques. The findings reveal long-run equilibrium relationships, with financial development and trade openness positively affecting gross domestic product (GDP) growth, while renewable energy exhibits an unexpected negative coefficient. The non-linear autoregressive distributed lag estimates uncover asymmetries, with larger GDP contractions from downside shocks in financial development and trade openness. Renewable energy shows growth penalties from negative changes but symmetric upside benefits. The results highlight the importance of well-developed financial systems, strategic renewable investments, and trade integration for sustainable growth. Policymakers should focus on financial reforms, renewable project facilitation, and reducing trade barriers, considering asymmetric impacts. This study contributes novel empirical evidence on asymmetric dynamics among these variables in D-8 countries, extending the literature through recent non-linear panel modeling techniques and demonstrating the merits of accounting for asymmetries. The combination of methods offers a robust and fresh perspective.\u0000\u0000\u0000","PeriodicalId":38194,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy","volume":" 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141674755","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Moustfa Ismael Khaleel, Ahmed Younis Jabbar, Maha Kalai, Rima Aloulou, Kamel HELALI
Iraq, one of the main oil exporting nations, is extremely susceptible to changes in the price of oil. This article attempts to investigate how the price of oil affects the way the Iraqi economy performs, as indicated by a number of factors (economic growth and international financial markets). We will apply econometric techniques in both linear and non-linear frameworks to accomplish this goal. To represent NARDL non-linearities in the relationship between the aforementioned economic variables, we will first look for linear cointegrating correlations and/or estimate ARDL models. If necessary, we will next use threshold cointegration. Thus, we demonstrate that, independent of the regime we are in, the asymmetry associated with the shock's sign is confirmed over the span January 2006–December 2020. Regarding the asymmetry associated with the shock's magnitude, it is only confirmed under the "below oil price threshold regime." In the "above oil price threshold regime," yields respond in a way that is proportionate to the shock's magnitude. Additionally, we demonstrate that the asymmetry associated with the shock's sign is confirmed during times of negative industrial output growth, while the influence of shocks looks symmetrical during times of positive industrial production variation.
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