The energy industry drives all economic sectors and improves people's well-being. Energy supply reliability underpins national security, economic growth, and global stability. Energy use, especially electricity, affects GDP per capita. Power-to-weight ratio is energy consumption per person. The main purpose of the study, as used in the literature, is to investigate the relationship between carbon dioxide (CO2) emission and energy consumption, per capita gross domestic product for Azerbaijan using the Toda-Yamamoto causality test using annual data for the period 1991-2021. According to the results of the research, while there is no relationship between energy consumption and GDP, an increase in per capita income reduces CO2 emissions; it was also found that there is a unidirectional causality running from CO2 emissions to an increase in per capita income. An increase in energy consumption per capita leads to a decrease in CO2. However, there is bidirectional causality running both from energy consumption per capita to CO2 and from CO2 to per capita income. As a result, a 1% increase in energy consumption per capita causes a 0.946% increase in CO2. It has been determined that a 1% increase in gross domestic product per capita does not cause a 0.086% decrease in CO2.
{"title":"Empirical Findings on the Relationship of Energy Consumption, Gross Domestic Product Per Capita and Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions","authors":"Alasgarova Aygun Agasalim","doi":"10.32479/ijeep.14062","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.14062","url":null,"abstract":"The energy industry drives all economic sectors and improves people's well-being. Energy supply reliability underpins national security, economic growth, and global stability. Energy use, especially electricity, affects GDP per capita. Power-to-weight ratio is energy consumption per person. The main purpose of the study, as used in the literature, is to investigate the relationship between carbon dioxide (CO2) emission and energy consumption, per capita gross domestic product for Azerbaijan using the Toda-Yamamoto causality test using annual data for the period 1991-2021. According to the results of the research, while there is no relationship between energy consumption and GDP, an increase in per capita income reduces CO2 emissions; it was also found that there is a unidirectional causality running from CO2 emissions to an increase in per capita income. An increase in energy consumption per capita leads to a decrease in CO2. However, there is bidirectional causality running both from energy consumption per capita to CO2 and from CO2 to per capita income. As a result, a 1% increase in energy consumption per capita causes a 0.946% increase in CO2. It has been determined that a 1% increase in gross domestic product per capita does not cause a 0.086% decrease in CO2.","PeriodicalId":38194,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy","volume":" 43","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141673435","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Stavros Kalogiannidis, S. Kontsas, Dimitrios Syndoukas, F. Chatzitheodoridis
This study explores the role of integrative mechanisms in facilitating zero emissions regional planning, acting as a catalyst for regional development within Europe. Utilizing a quantitative methodology and questionnaire, data were collected from 384 European regions, followed by rigorous statistical analysis. The findings highlight the significance of effective integrative mechanisms in achieving zero emissions, confirming a positive impact on regional development. The results show that Zero emissions regional planning positively impacts regional development. This study also notes that the presence of identifiable challenges (e.g., financial constraints, policy conflicts, technological gaps) significantly hinders the alignment of regional development objectives with zero-emissions targets. These results have substantial implications for stakeholders, emphasizing the need for a collaborative approach in regional planning and suggesting pathways for future research endeavors. Policymakers should pay particular attention to the challenges identified in the study, such as financial constraints, policy conflicts, technological gaps, and cultural resistance to change. Strategies should be developed to mitigate these challenges, including creating financial mechanisms to support zero-emissions initiatives, harmonizing policies at various levels of governance, investing in technology transfer and innovation, and implementing educational and awareness programs to change cultural attitudes.
{"title":"Integrative Mechanisms Towards Zero Emissions Regional Planning: An Enabler of Regional Development: A Case Study of Europe","authors":"Stavros Kalogiannidis, S. Kontsas, Dimitrios Syndoukas, F. Chatzitheodoridis","doi":"10.32479/ijeep.15604","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.15604","url":null,"abstract":"This study explores the role of integrative mechanisms in facilitating zero emissions regional planning, acting as a catalyst for regional development within Europe. Utilizing a quantitative methodology and questionnaire, data were collected from 384 European regions, followed by rigorous statistical analysis. The findings highlight the significance of effective integrative mechanisms in achieving zero emissions, confirming a positive impact on regional development. The results show that Zero emissions regional planning positively impacts regional development. This study also notes that the presence of identifiable challenges (e.g., financial constraints, policy conflicts, technological gaps) significantly hinders the alignment of regional development objectives with zero-emissions targets. These results have substantial implications for stakeholders, emphasizing the need for a collaborative approach in regional planning and suggesting pathways for future research endeavors. Policymakers should pay particular attention to the challenges identified in the study, such as financial constraints, policy conflicts, technological gaps, and cultural resistance to change. Strategies should be developed to mitigate these challenges, including creating financial mechanisms to support zero-emissions initiatives, harmonizing policies at various levels of governance, investing in technology transfer and innovation, and implementing educational and awareness programs to change cultural attitudes.","PeriodicalId":38194,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy","volume":" 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141674311","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abdirahman Mohamed Nur, Ahmed Hassan Adan, Ahmed Dahir Ahmed, Ali Abdukadir Ali Gutale, Ali Yassin Sheikh Ali, M. Dalmar
The advent of climate change has evolved into a paramount challenge for humanity, prompting extensive endeavors to mitigate its consequences. This research delves into the influence between gross capital formation (GCF) and carbon dioxide emissions in Somalia, spanning the years 1991-2019. To scrutinize the long-term associations among the variables under consideration, the study employed autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. Additionally, to ensure the robustness of the study, both dynamic ordinary least squares and fully modified ordinary least squares were applied. Contrary to expectations, the findings indicate that GCF does not exert a significant influence on carbon dioxide emissions. The study advocates for the implementation of a comprehensive environmental policy framework that considers a spectrum of contributing factors beyond GCF. To address the multifaceted nature of environmental challenges, the study recommends initiatives such as diversification of energy sources, technology transfer, promotion of sustainable practices, and integration of climate resilience.
{"title":"Investigating the Effect of Gross Capital Formation on Carbon Emissions in Somalia","authors":"Abdirahman Mohamed Nur, Ahmed Hassan Adan, Ahmed Dahir Ahmed, Ali Abdukadir Ali Gutale, Ali Yassin Sheikh Ali, M. Dalmar","doi":"10.32479/ijeep.15788","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.15788","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000\u0000\u0000The advent of climate change has evolved into a paramount challenge for humanity, prompting extensive endeavors to mitigate its consequences. This research delves into the influence between gross capital formation (GCF) and carbon dioxide emissions in Somalia, spanning the years 1991-2019. To scrutinize the long-term associations among the variables under consideration, the study employed autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. Additionally, to ensure the robustness of the study, both dynamic ordinary least squares and fully modified ordinary least squares were applied. Contrary to expectations, the findings indicate that GCF does not exert a significant influence on carbon dioxide emissions. The study advocates for the implementation of a comprehensive environmental policy framework that considers a spectrum of contributing factors beyond GCF. To address the multifaceted nature of environmental challenges, the study recommends initiatives such as diversification of energy sources, technology transfer, promotion of sustainable practices, and integration of climate resilience.\u0000\u0000\u0000","PeriodicalId":38194,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy","volume":" 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141675526","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Nur Dwiana Sari Saudi, Indraswati Tri Abdi Reviane, Abd Hamid Paddu, Grisvia Agustin, Fitriwati Djam’an, Sabbardahham Sabbar
In the modern world, emerging economies are examining how technological progression and carbon neutrality goals can encourage sustainable production and consumption. Striving for carbon neutrality requires using energy storage technologies and alternative energy sources. This study investigates Indonesia’s ecological sustainability, focusing on CO2 emissions and air quality index-related smog pollution, with renewable energy adoption, energy storage technology, and environmental innovation as primary influencing factors. The study employed the Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag (QARDL) method to explore long-term and short-term correlations between the predictors and the resultant variables. Findings reveal a significant negative correlation between adopting renewable energy (REA), using renewable energy, and EST and CO2 emissions across various quantiles in Indonesia. However, globalization was found to have a positive and significant relationship with CO2 emissions, but this association was only seen at higher quantiles. The long-term analysis revealed that environmental conservation efforts, renewable energy utilization, and environmental taxes could significantly reduce PM2.5 level haze pollution in Indonesia. The QARDL method also supports a negative long-term correlation between REA, ALT, and EST, while globalization is linked to increased CO2 emissions in Indonesia, exacerbating environmental sustainability concerns. In summary, this research concludes that practical innovation, renewable energy consumption, and environmental taxation decrease carbon emissions, while globalization increases them in Indonesia.
在当今世界，新兴经济体正在研究如何通过技术进步和碳中和目标来鼓励可持续生产和消费。努力实现碳中和需要使用能源储存技术和替代能源。本研究调查了印度尼西亚的生态可持续性，重点关注二氧化碳排放量和与空气质量指数相关的烟雾污染，并将可再生能源的采用、储能技术和环境创新作为主要影响因素。研究采用了量子自回归分布滞后法（QARDL）来探讨预测因素与结果变量之间的长期和短期相关性。研究结果表明，在印度尼西亚，采用可再生能源（REA）、使用可再生能源、无害环境技术和二氧化碳排放量在不同量级之间存在明显的负相关。然而，研究发现全球化与二氧化碳排放量之间存在着显著的正相关关系，但这种相关关系只出现在较高的量级上。长期分析表明，环境保护工作、可再生能源利用和环境税可显著降低印尼的 PM2.5 级灰霾污染。QARDL 方法还支持 REA、ALT 和 EST 之间的长期负相关，而全球化与印尼二氧化碳排放量的增加有关，加剧了环境可持续性问题。总之，本研究得出结论：在印尼，实用创新、可再生能源消费和环境税减少了碳排放，而全球化增加了碳排放。
{"title":"Carbon Neutrality and Sustainable Development: An Empirical Study of Indonesia’s Renewable Energy Adoption","authors":"Nur Dwiana Sari Saudi, Indraswati Tri Abdi Reviane, Abd Hamid Paddu, Grisvia Agustin, Fitriwati Djam’an, Sabbardahham Sabbar","doi":"10.32479/ijeep.15953","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.15953","url":null,"abstract":"In the modern world, emerging economies are examining how technological progression and carbon neutrality goals can encourage sustainable production and consumption. Striving for carbon neutrality requires using energy storage technologies and alternative energy sources. This study investigates Indonesia’s ecological sustainability, focusing on CO2 emissions and air quality index-related smog pollution, with renewable energy adoption, energy storage technology, and environmental innovation as primary influencing factors. The study employed the Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag (QARDL) method to explore long-term and short-term correlations between the predictors and the resultant variables. Findings reveal a significant negative correlation between adopting renewable energy (REA), using renewable energy, and EST and CO2 emissions across various quantiles in Indonesia. However, globalization was found to have a positive and significant relationship with CO2 emissions, but this association was only seen at higher quantiles. The long-term analysis revealed that environmental conservation efforts, renewable energy utilization, and environmental taxes could significantly reduce PM2.5 level haze pollution in Indonesia. The QARDL method also supports a negative long-term correlation between REA, ALT, and EST, while globalization is linked to increased CO2 emissions in Indonesia, exacerbating environmental sustainability concerns. In summary, this research concludes that practical innovation, renewable energy consumption, and environmental taxation decrease carbon emissions, while globalization increases them in Indonesia.","PeriodicalId":38194,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy","volume":" 19","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141676197","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The world faced different crises, several times, in the last five decades. The COVID-19 pandemic, debt crisis and oil bubble were the most important crises among them. During the crisis, the main financial driving factor was the oil price which transmitted an alarming hit to other economic nexus factors. The objective of this paper was to find out the crisis period, caused by crude oil and its eventuality in different markets’ historical plots. Scopus data represent 605 studies, using the bibliometrix R tool, about crude oil and related crises. Within the context of the contemporary scientific literature, the most significant authors, publications, and research institutions were included in this paper. In the context of the most recent scientific literature, the most significant authors, publications, and research institutions were identified and the relevance of their contributions was established. This research employed disaggregated sectoral analysis and mechanistic analysis on grounded theory, which included moderation analysis. Finally, this bibliometric analysis tried to locate roadblocks in the current literature as well as indicate new directions for investigation.
在过去的五十年里，世界多次面临不同的危机。COVID-19 大流行病、债务危机和石油泡沫是其中最重要的危机。在危机期间，主要的金融驱动因素是石油价格，它对其他经济关联因素造成了惊人的打击。本文旨在从不同市场的历史图谱中找出由原油引发的危机时期及其可能性。Scopus 数据代表了 605 项关于原油和相关危机的研究，使用的是 bibliometrix R 工具。在当代科学文献的范围内，最重要的作者、出版物和研究机构被纳入本文。在最新科学文献的背景下，确定了最重要的作者、出版物和研究机构，并确定了其贡献的相关性。本研究采用了分类部门分析和基础理论的机制分析，其中包括调节分析。最后，文献计量分析试图找出当前文献中的障碍，并指出新的研究方向。
{"title":"The 50-year-old Oil Crisis and its Impact on the Global Economy: A Bibliometric Analysis","authors":"Tahmina Akther Mim, Chinnadurai Kathiravan, Balasundram Maniam","doi":"10.32479/ijeep.16028","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.16028","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000\u0000\u0000The world faced different crises, several times, in the last five decades. The COVID-19 pandemic, debt crisis and oil bubble were the most important crises among them. During the crisis, the main financial driving factor was the oil price which transmitted an alarming hit to other economic nexus factors. The objective of this paper was to find out the crisis period, caused by crude oil and its eventuality in different markets’ historical plots. Scopus data represent 605 studies, using the bibliometrix R tool, about crude oil and related crises. Within the context of the contemporary scientific literature, the most significant authors, publications, and research institutions were included in this paper. In the context of the most recent scientific literature, the most significant authors, publications, and research institutions were identified and the relevance of their contributions was established. This research employed disaggregated sectoral analysis and mechanistic analysis on grounded theory, which included moderation analysis. Finally, this bibliometric analysis tried to locate roadblocks in the current literature as well as indicate new directions for investigation.\u0000\u0000\u0000","PeriodicalId":38194,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy","volume":" 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141676305","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A. P. Kurniadi, H. Aimon, Zamroni Salim, Ragimun Ragimun, Adang Sonjaya, Sigit Setiawan, Viktor Siagian, Lokot Zein Nasution, R. Nurhidajat, Mutaqin Mutaqin, Joko Sabtohadi
This study aims to identify trends in the role of coal and solar energy consumption on climate change through existing and forecasting analysis as new evidence for the sustainable development goals launched by 2030. This research targets countries in the Asia Pacific, especially coal exporters (Indonesia and Australia) and coal importers (China). The basic model uses panel regression as the existing condition, which covers the period 2008-2023. Meanwhile, the forecasting analysis uses the ARIMA method, which covers the period 2024-2030. The findings of existing conditions include coal energy consumption contributing to increasing climate change. Meanwhile, solar energy consumption can reduce climate change. Furthermore, the forecast findings on average are climate change conditions of 5.237 million tons and coal energy consumption of 33,830 exajoules, but on average the annual growth rate is relatively small (0.91 percent for climate change and 1.46 percent for coal energy consumption). Meanwhile, solar energy has also increased with a small quantity of 2.40 exajoules, but the growth rate is relatively high (29.61 percent). This research recommends that the government massively increase the transition of clean energy consumption towards solar so that the mix can dominate for greater reductions in climate change in achieving sustainable development goals.
{"title":"Analysis of Existing and Forecasting for Coal and Solar Energy Consumption on Climate Change in Asia Pacific: New Evidence for Sustainable Development Goals","authors":"A. P. Kurniadi, H. Aimon, Zamroni Salim, Ragimun Ragimun, Adang Sonjaya, Sigit Setiawan, Viktor Siagian, Lokot Zein Nasution, R. Nurhidajat, Mutaqin Mutaqin, Joko Sabtohadi","doi":"10.32479/ijeep.16187","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.16187","url":null,"abstract":"This study aims to identify trends in the role of coal and solar energy consumption on climate change through existing and forecasting analysis as new evidence for the sustainable development goals launched by 2030. This research targets countries in the Asia Pacific, especially coal exporters (Indonesia and Australia) and coal importers (China). The basic model uses panel regression as the existing condition, which covers the period 2008-2023. Meanwhile, the forecasting analysis uses the ARIMA method, which covers the period 2024-2030. The findings of existing conditions include coal energy consumption contributing to increasing climate change. Meanwhile, solar energy consumption can reduce climate change. Furthermore, the forecast findings on average are climate change conditions of 5.237 million tons and coal energy consumption of 33,830 exajoules, but on average the annual growth rate is relatively small (0.91 percent for climate change and 1.46 percent for coal energy consumption). Meanwhile, solar energy has also increased with a small quantity of 2.40 exajoules, but the growth rate is relatively high (29.61 percent). This research recommends that the government massively increase the transition of clean energy consumption towards solar so that the mix can dominate for greater reductions in climate change in achieving sustainable development goals.","PeriodicalId":38194,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy","volume":" 17","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141673991","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In the African context, achieving sustainable development while fostering economic growth and environmental conservation presents a formidable challenge. This article employs Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to assess the environmental efficiency of 34 African countries from 2013 to 2022. Using key economic indicators such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Logistics Performance Index (LPI), and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) relative to CO2 emissions, the study evaluates the ability of African nations to optimize economic output while minimizing environmental impact. The analysis reveals significant heterogeneity in environmental efficiency levels among countries, with some demonstrating high efficiency, while others exhibit room for improvement. Factors such as FDI, LPI, and GDP play pivotal roles in shaping environmental outcomes, highlighting the need for sustainable investment practices and infrastructure development. Peer comparison and output slack analysis provide further insights, identifying opportunities for enhancing efficiency and promoting sustainable growth. Case studies of South Africa, Mali, and Zambia underscore varying degrees of environmental efficiency and offer valuable lessons for sustainable development across the continent. Overall, the findings contribute to a deeper understanding of environmental efficiency in Africa and provide a roadmap for policymakers to pursue greener and more inclusive development trajectories.
{"title":"Green Growth or Economic Gain? Assessing Environmental Efficiency Using Data Envelopment Analysis: Case of Africa","authors":"Benomar Ikram, Ababou Mariame","doi":"10.32479/ijeep.15973","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.15973","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000\u0000\u0000In the African context, achieving sustainable development while fostering economic growth and environmental conservation presents a formidable challenge. This article employs Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to assess the environmental efficiency of 34 African countries from 2013 to 2022. Using key economic indicators such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Logistics Performance Index (LPI), and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) relative to CO2 emissions, the study evaluates the ability of African nations to optimize economic output while minimizing environmental impact. The analysis reveals significant heterogeneity in environmental efficiency levels among countries, with some demonstrating high efficiency, while others exhibit room for improvement. Factors such as FDI, LPI, and GDP play pivotal roles in shaping environmental outcomes, highlighting the need for sustainable investment practices and infrastructure development. Peer comparison and output slack analysis provide further insights, identifying opportunities for enhancing efficiency and promoting sustainable growth. Case studies of South Africa, Mali, and Zambia underscore varying degrees of environmental efficiency and offer valuable lessons for sustainable development across the continent. Overall, the findings contribute to a deeper understanding of environmental efficiency in Africa and provide a roadmap for policymakers to pursue greener and more inclusive development trajectories.\u0000\u0000\u0000","PeriodicalId":38194,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy","volume":" 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141674133","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
With the characteristic of natural gas as a clean, non-toxic, and valuable energy source, its use has been increasing in recent years. Thus, maintaining stable natural gas security requires a reliable long-step price forecasting indicator with less error. We propose a hybrid theory of Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) to perform multi-step forecasting focusing on 30 to 90 steps of the daily Henry Hub natural gas price as a dataset. Using four widespread error measurements, the proposed model provides excellent results compared to no-decomposition as the benchmark model. The proposed model provides 50% lower error results than the single LSTM. EEMD_LSTM brings values below 10 in the MAPE indicator, even up to 90-step prediction. The Diebold-Mariano test also confirms that EEMD_LSTM outperforms the single LSTM on every step with the majority of 90% confidence level. We also simulated the model by analysing the box and whiskers plot of RMSE, which shows that the variance of predicted values ranges between 1.11%. These results show that the proposed forecasting model provides robust results for the case of medium-term natural gas prices with excellent forecasting results.
{"title":"Multi-step Natural Gas Price Forecasting using Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition and Long Short-Term Memory Hybrid Model","authors":"Herry Kartika Gandhi, Ispány Márton","doi":"10.32479/ijeep.16053","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.16053","url":null,"abstract":"With the characteristic of natural gas as a clean, non-toxic, and valuable energy source, its use has been increasing in recent years. Thus, maintaining stable natural gas security requires a reliable long-step price forecasting indicator with less error. We propose a hybrid theory of Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) to perform multi-step forecasting focusing on 30 to 90 steps of the daily Henry Hub natural gas price as a dataset. Using four widespread error measurements, the proposed model provides excellent results compared to no-decomposition as the benchmark model. The proposed model provides 50% lower error results than the single LSTM. EEMD_LSTM brings values below 10 in the MAPE indicator, even up to 90-step prediction. The Diebold-Mariano test also confirms that EEMD_LSTM outperforms the single LSTM on every step with the majority of 90% confidence level. We also simulated the model by analysing the box and whiskers plot of RMSE, which shows that the variance of predicted values ranges between 1.11%. These results show that the proposed forecasting model provides robust results for the case of medium-term natural gas prices with excellent forecasting results.","PeriodicalId":38194,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy","volume":" 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141676899","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Tri Wahyu Adi, Edy Susanto, Ade Caswito, R. S. Yuwono, Tarwaji Warsokusumo, A. Y. A. Nugroho
This study aims to examine the Influence of Fossil Fuel Prices on Fossil and Renewable Electricity Consumption, GDP, Inflation and Greenflation. This research is explanatory. The empirical analysis uses time-series data of Fossil Fuel Price, Fossil Electricity Consumption, Renewable Electricity Consumption, Inflation Rate and GDP in Asia Pacific Countries in the period 2016 – 2021. The inferential statistical method used to analyse this study is component-based using SmartPLS 4.0.9.6. The results of this study, find that fossil fuel price has a negative significant effect on fossil electricity consumption and a significant negative effect on renewable electricity consumption. Fossil electricity consumption has a significant negative effect on GDP and a negative insignificant effect on Inflation. Renewable electricity consumption has a positive significant effect on GDP and an insignificant negative effect on inflation (Greenflation). The novelty of this study is to examine how Fossil fuel prices have an effect on renewable electricity consumption and its impact on GDP and greenflation analysis using SmartPLS 4.0.9.6.
{"title":"Influence of Fossil Fuel Prices on Fossil and Renewable Electricity Consumptions, GDP, Inflation and Greenflation: A Case Study in the Asia Pacific Countries","authors":"Tri Wahyu Adi, Edy Susanto, Ade Caswito, R. S. Yuwono, Tarwaji Warsokusumo, A. Y. A. Nugroho","doi":"10.32479/ijeep.15966","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.15966","url":null,"abstract":"This study aims to examine the Influence of Fossil Fuel Prices on Fossil and Renewable Electricity Consumption, GDP, Inflation and Greenflation. This research is explanatory. The empirical analysis uses time-series data of Fossil Fuel Price, Fossil Electricity Consumption, Renewable Electricity Consumption, Inflation Rate and GDP in Asia Pacific Countries in the period 2016 – 2021. The inferential statistical method used to analyse this study is component-based using SmartPLS 4.0.9.6. The results of this study, find that fossil fuel price has a negative significant effect on fossil electricity consumption and a significant negative effect on renewable electricity consumption. Fossil electricity consumption has a significant negative effect on GDP and a negative insignificant effect on Inflation. Renewable electricity consumption has a positive significant effect on GDP and an insignificant negative effect on inflation (Greenflation). The novelty of this study is to examine how Fossil fuel prices have an effect on renewable electricity consumption and its impact on GDP and greenflation analysis using SmartPLS 4.0.9.6.","PeriodicalId":38194,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy","volume":" 41","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141673211","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Helan Alias Vaibhavi Kabirdas Alavani, Richa Shukla, Debasis Patnaik
The hypothesis put forth by Porter and Linde (1995) suggests imposing regulation to promote energy efficiency can lead to improved innovation and performance among firms. This study seeks to explore this theoretical premise in the Indian manufacturing sector by analysing the influence of energy intensity on profitability of firms belonging to the Perform Achieve and Trade (PAT) regulated sectors, with a particular focus on classifying technology oriented firms. The study examines seven manufacturing industries from the first cycle of the PAT policy. Two measures of energy intensity indicators, namely the physical economic indicator and the economic indicator, are included in the study. The empirical analysis is divided into two categories: Firms that import technology (714 firms) and firms that do not import technology (752 firms). The study employs panel data analysis with a fixed effect model to conduct the analysis for the time period 2011-2020. Based on empirical analysis, it appears that firms that import technology exhibit a negative relationship between energy intensity and firm performance. Non-technology importing firms exhibit a similar relationship but with a higher coefficient value for energy intensity. The study also includes control variables such as firm size, age, capital intensity, raw material imports, and market concentration. The results show that relatively small to medium-sized firms, which are also young and striving to expand their market size, achieve energy efficiency gains. This highlights the reluctance of established players to improve their performance efficiency through technological up gradation.
波特和林德（Porter and Linde，1995 年）提出的假设表明，实施促进能源效率的法规可以提高企业的创新能力和绩效。本研究试图在印度制造业中探讨这一理论前提，分析能源密集度对属于 "绩效与贸易"（PAT）监管部门的企业盈利能力的影响，尤其侧重于技术导向型企业的分类。研究考察了 PAT 政策第一周期的七个制造业。研究包括两个能源强度指标，即物理经济指标和经济指标。实证分析分为两类：引进技术的企业（714 家）和不引进技术的企业（752 家）。研究采用面板数据分析和固定效应模型，对 2011-2020 年期间进行分析。根据实证分析，进口技术的企业在能源强度和企业绩效之间表现出负相关关系。非技术引进型企业表现出类似的关系，但能源强度的系数值更高。研究还包括企业规模、年龄、资本密集度、原材料进口和市场集中度等控制变量。研究结果表明，中小型企业，同时也是年轻企业，努力扩大市场规模，实现了能源效率的提高。这凸显了老牌企业不愿通过技术升级来提高能效。
{"title":"An Assessment of the Relationship between Profitability and Energy Intensity for Technology Oriented Manufacturing Firms in India","authors":"Helan Alias Vaibhavi Kabirdas Alavani, Richa Shukla, Debasis Patnaik","doi":"10.32479/ijeep.16344","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.16344","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000\u0000\u0000The hypothesis put forth by Porter and Linde (1995) suggests imposing regulation to promote energy efficiency can lead to improved innovation and performance among firms. This study seeks to explore this theoretical premise in the Indian manufacturing sector by analysing the influence of energy intensity on profitability of firms belonging to the Perform Achieve and Trade (PAT) regulated sectors, with a particular focus on classifying technology oriented firms. The study examines seven manufacturing industries from the first cycle of the PAT policy. Two measures of energy intensity indicators, namely the physical economic indicator and the economic indicator, are included in the study. The empirical analysis is divided into two categories: Firms that import technology (714 firms) and firms that do not import technology (752 firms). The study employs panel data analysis with a fixed effect model to conduct the analysis for the time period 2011-2020. Based on empirical analysis, it appears that firms that import technology exhibit a negative relationship between energy intensity and firm performance. Non-technology importing firms exhibit a similar relationship but with a higher coefficient value for energy intensity. The study also includes control variables such as firm size, age, capital intensity, raw material imports, and market concentration. The results show that relatively small to medium-sized firms, which are also young and striving to expand their market size, achieve energy efficiency gains. This highlights the reluctance of established players to improve their performance efficiency through technological up gradation.\u0000\u0000\u0000","PeriodicalId":38194,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy","volume":" 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141673326","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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