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Small-scale variation of atmospheric dynamics applying chaos theory, case study 应用混沌理论的大气动力学小尺度变化案例研究
Pub Date : 2024-03-26 DOI: 10.20937/atm.53274
Arquímides Haro Velasteguí, Jorge Lara Sinaluisa, Nelly Perugachi Cahueñas, Juan Martínez Nogales
Characterization and knowledge of the variability of atmospheric dynamics on a small scale in the city of Riobamba, Ecuador, are achieved through the chaos theory. Meteorological data is taken every hour during four years, including variables such as wind speed, wind direction, incident radiation, temperature, and humidity, from the ESPOCH, SAN JUAN, and QUIMIAG weather stations in the canton of Riobamba. The van Ulden and Hostlang models are used to calculate the Obukhov length, surface heat fluxes, and latent heat flux. The chaos theory is applied to study the variation of atmospheric microdynamics. The Lyapunov coefficients, Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy, and Kaplan-Yorke fractal dimension are determined. Before analysis, noise reduction is necessary due to the lack of correlation, especially in the Obukhov length. This research follows a longitudinal design and employs quantitative and explanatory methods based on data analysis, statistical-mathematical techniques, and inductive-deductive approaches. The results indicate a highly variable system, reflected in a high number of Lyapunov coefficients, fractional dimensions, and entropy variations. The microdynamic parameters exhibit hyperchaotic behavior, as indicated by the presence of more than one positive Lyapunov coefficient. The variables also demonstrate a fractional fractal dimension, highlighting the irregularity in the geometric representation of the system.
通过混沌理论来描述和了解厄瓜多尔里奥班巴市小范围内的大气动态变化。四年中每小时从里奥班巴县的 ESPOCH、SAN JUAN 和 QUIMIAG 气象站获取气象数据,包括风速、风向、入射辐射、温度和湿度等变量。van Ulden 和 Hostlang 模型用于计算奥布霍夫长度、表面热通量和潜热通量。混沌理论用于研究大气微观动力学的变化。确定了 Lyapunov 系数、Kolmogorov-Sinai 熵和 Kaplan-Yorke 分形维度。在分析之前,由于缺乏相关性,特别是在奥布霍夫长度上,有必要进行降噪处理。本研究采用纵向设计,并在数据分析、统计数学技术和归纳-演绎法的基础上采用了定量和解释方法。研究结果表明,这是一个高度可变的系统,体现在大量的 Lyapunov 系数、分数维数和熵变上。微动态参数表现出超混沌行为,这体现在存在一个以上的正 Lyapunov 系数。这些变量还显示出分数分形维度,突出了系统几何表示的不规则性。
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引用次数: 0
Studies on airborne microbiota in Mexico, a review 墨西哥空气微生物研究综述
Pub Date : 2024-03-14 DOI: 10.20937/atm.53325
Ó. Álvarez-Rivera, Héctor Estrada‐Medina, Miriam Monserrat Ferrer, A. O’Connor-Sánchez
Airborne microbiota has garnered increasing interest in recent decades, not only because of its role as carrier of pathogenic microorganisms and its involvement in the deterioration of man-made objects, buildings, and food but also because of its participation in atmospheric processes and its content of microorganisms, important for biogeochemical cycles in different ecosystems. In order to understand and comprehensively analyze existing studies on airborne microbiota in Mexico, a systematic review was conducted utilizing Web of Science and Google Scholar as search tools. The information found in the 35 identified publications was systematically organized, including title, study location, sampling method, laboratory approach, identification method, and organisms found. This information was then ordered into three sections: bibliometric analysis, employed methodologies, and main findings. Through this work, it was revealed that the studies were carried out in 14 out of the 32 states of Mexico, with Mexico City standing out with 17 articles. Three methodological approaches were identified: microbial cultures (77% of the studies), microscopy (11.5%), and metagenomics (11.5%). The studies predominantly focused on state capitals or densely populated cities, making the identification of potentially pathogenic organisms from humans, animals, and plants, of particular interest. This comprehensive review lays the foundation for proposing compelling avenues of future research, aimed at advancing our comprehension of airborne microbiota in Mexico.
近几十年来,空气中的微生物群越来越受到人们的关注,这不仅是因为它们是病原微生物的载体,参与了人造物品、建筑物和食物的变质,还因为它们参与了大气过程,其微生物含量对不同生态系统中的生物地球化学循环非常重要。为了了解和全面分析有关墨西哥空气中微生物群的现有研究,我们利用 "科学网 "和 "谷歌学术 "作为搜索工具,进行了一次系统回顾。系统地整理了 35 篇出版物中的信息,包括标题、研究地点、取样方法、实验室方法、鉴定方法和发现的生物。然后将这些信息排序为三个部分:文献计量分析、采用的方法和主要发现。通过这项工作发现,这些研究是在墨西哥 32 个州中的 14 个州进行的,其中墨西哥城有 17 篇文章。研究发现了三种方法:微生物培养(77% 的研究)、显微镜(11.5%)和元基因组学(11.5%)。这些研究主要集中在各州首府或人口密集的城市,因此从人类、动物和植物中鉴定潜在病原体的工作尤为重要。这篇综合综述为提出未来研究的重要途径奠定了基础,旨在促进我们对墨西哥空气中微生物群的了解。
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引用次数: 0
Comparison of COSMO and ICON-LAM high-resolution numerical forecast for Romanian territory: Case studies and evaluation 罗马尼亚境内 COSMO 和 ICON-LAM 高分辨率数值预报的比较:案例研究与评估
Pub Date : 2024-03-11 DOI: 10.20937/atm.53305
Amalia Iriza-Burca, R. Dumitrache, B. Maco, Mihăiţă-Cristinel Hustiu, Felix Fundel, Daniel Rieger, Roland Potthast
This paper aims to offer the first detailed inter-comparison of the performance from the numerical weather prediction models Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (COSMO) and Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic General Circulation Model, Limited Area Mode (ICON-LAM), integrated for the Romanian territory at the horizontal resolution of 2.8 km. As the ICON numerical model is set to replace COSMO, a comparison is carried out between the operational configurations of the two models. First, two cases with severe weather (strong atmospheric instability, observed heavy precipitation, and strong wind) are analyzed: February 3-6, 2020 (heavy precipitation [snow] and very strong wind) and May 3-5, 2020 (heavy precipitation). This is followed by a statistical inter-comparison between the two models for the summer of 2020 (June, July, August). A statistical evaluation of the forecast quality from the two models is performed objectively, through statistical scores computed using surface observations from all available meteorological stations on the Romanian territory. Stratifications depending on station altitude and location are carried out, with emphasis on stations of particular interest, depending on the evolution of the synoptic situation. Following the statistical evaluation, results for the precipitation forecast do not show significant improvement in favor of either model. However, ICON-2.8 km mostly outperforms COSMO-2.8 km for surface parameters.
本文旨在首次详细比较罗马尼亚境内的小尺度建模联合会(COSMO)和二十面体非静水压大气环流有限区域模式(ICON-LAM)数值天气预报模式在 2.8 千米水平分辨率下的性能。由于 ICON 数值模式将取代 COSMO,因此对两种模式的运行配置进行了比较。首先,分析了两种恶劣天气(强大气不稳定性、观测到的强降水和强风)的情况:2020 年 2 月 3-6 日(强降水[雪]和大风)和 2020 年 5 月 3-5 日(强降水)。随后,对 2020 年夏季(6 月、7 月和 8 月)的两个模式进行了统计相互比较。通过使用罗马尼亚境内所有气象站的地面观测数据计算出的统计分数,对两个模式的预报质量进行了客观的统计评估。根据气象站的高度和位置进行了分层,重点放在特别重要的气象站上,这取决于天气形势的演变。经过统计评估,降水预报结果显示,两种模式都没有明显改善。不过,在地表参数方面,ICON-2.8 km 大多优于 COSMO-2.8 km。
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引用次数: 0
A hot Spring for Mexico in 2024 2024 年墨西哥的热泉
Pub Date : 2024-03-08 DOI: 10.20937/atm.53377
Victor M. Torres
Hot days observed during February 2024, reaching 30oC in Mexico City, have made its inhabitants forget that it was the winter season, characterized by dry and cool weather. While such extreme events are often associated with climate change, the current state of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system indicates the last months of an El Niño state, after an expectation of this to be within the top 5 El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events (https://cutt.ly/rw1h4T26). The effects of ENSO on the seasonal climate have been widely studied (Philander 1990), and their impacts on Mexico have also been documented (Magana, 2004). Recent seasonal forecasts suggest a progression towards a neutral state for the April-June 2024 season. And further projections indicate a 55% of chance of La Niña developing during the rainy season of 2024. This suggests an end to dry and warm conditions and the possibility of increased rainfall. (Magaña et al. 2003). However, with an ongoing drought over most of the Mexican region, and a water crisis affecting central Mexico, it seems that the seasonal forecasts based on ENSO projections set up the stage for a critical situation for most of the country during the Spring season.
2024 年 2 月,墨西哥城出现了高达 30 摄氏度的高温天,这让当地居民忘记了这是以干燥和凉爽天气为特征的冬季。虽然这种极端事件通常与气候变化有关,但海洋-大气耦合系统的现状表明,在预期的前五次厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)事件中,厄尔尼诺状态已持续了最后几个月(https://cutt.ly/rw1h4T26)。厄尔尼诺/南方涛动对季节性气候的影响已被广泛研究(Philander,1990 年),其对墨西哥的影响也被记录在案(Magana,2004 年)。最近的季节预测表明,2024 年 4-6 月的季节气候将逐渐趋于中性。进一步的预测表明,在 2024 年雨季期间,拉尼娜现象出现的几率为 55%。这表明干旱和温暖的状况将结束,降雨量有可能增加。(Magaña 等人,2003 年)。然而,随着墨西哥大部分地区持续干旱,以及影响墨西哥中部的水危机,基于厄尔尼诺/南方涛动预测的季节性预报似乎为该国大部分地区春季的严峻形势埋下了伏笔。
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引用次数: 0
Quantifying of surface urban heat island intensity in Isfahan metropolis using MODISTerraLST data 利用 MODISTerraLST 数据量化伊斯法罕大都市的地表城市热岛强度
Pub Date : 2024-03-07 DOI: 10.20937/atm.53249
Majid Montazeri, Seyed Abolfazl Masoodian
Heat island characteristics depend on the background climate of the site where the city is located. Therefore, an index was defined for the Isfahan metropolitan area to quantify the surface urban heat island intensity. This new index is based on the representative pixels of urban and non-urban areas. For this purpose, MODIS land cover type product (MCD12Q1) data were used to distinguish between urban and non-urban areas. Also, data from the MODIS/Terra land surface temperature product (MOD11A1) from 2000 to 2018 were utilized for daytime and nighttime to study the surface heat island intensity. Then, the representative pixels of urban and non-urban areas were identified using the spatial correlation method, and the heat island index was calculated for the metropolitan area of Isfahan. The study showed that the frequency distribution of the nighttime heat island index follows a normal distribution and is often 3.5 to 4º K above the temperature of the surrounding areas of the city. The 365-day floating mean of the surface urban heat island reveals that this index has increased in recent years. The research of temporal behavior showed that the intensity of the surface urban heat island reaches its maximum in January and becomes weaker in summer, while the survey of spatial behavior showed that the core of the surface urban heat island extends towards downtown areas, where the oldest part of the city is located.
热岛特征取决于城市所在地的背景气候。因此,我们为伊斯法罕大都市区定义了一个指数,用于量化地表城市热岛强度。这一新指数基于城市和非城市地区的代表性像素。为此,使用了 MODIS 土地覆被类型产品 (MCD12Q1) 数据来区分城市和非城市地区。同时,利用 MODIS/Terra 陆面温度产品(MOD11A1)2000 年至 2018 年的白天和夜间数据来研究地表热岛强度。然后,利用空间相关性方法确定了城市和非城市地区的代表性像素,并计算了伊斯法罕大都市区的热岛指数。研究表明,夜间热岛指数的频率分布呈正态分布,通常比城市周边地区的温度高出 3.5 至 4º K。城市地表热岛 365 天浮动平均值显示,该指数近年来有所上升。对时间行为的研究表明,城市地表热岛的强度在一月达到最大,在夏季变弱,而对空间行为的调查表明,城市地表热岛的核心向市中心地区延伸,那里是城市最古老的部分。
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引用次数: 0
Is Agri-residue Burning a Menace for Air Quality & Public Health in Delhi, India? 焚烧农作物残留物是否会对印度德里的空气质量和公众健康造成威胁?
Pub Date : 2024-02-16 DOI: 10.20937/atm.53365
Jabrinder Singh
Skies over Delhi become blurred and visibility is significantly reduced and the air is hefty and causes a burning sensation in the eyes. As every year in November, a thick blanket of smog veils Delhi and its surrounding National Capital Region-NCR of India, which constitute the world’s most polluted megacity. According to a senior pulmonologist and member of the WHO commission on global air pollution and health, patients experiencing breathing problems increase by 30-40 percent every year during October-November. But Delhi’s smog wasn’t always this bad in early winter; it started only about 10-15 years ago. Satellite images show high Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), as soon as farmers start burning paddy straw and stubble (agri-residue) in agricultural fields, and air quality severely deteriorates. The agri-residue smoke from agricultural areas surrounding Delhi, combined with urban pollution from vehicles, industry, and fireworks from the Diwali festival, increase pollutants to the severe category. Smoke from farm fires after harvest contributed about ⁓ 26-50% of the PM2.5 (tiny particles that damage lungs and can worsen cardiac ailments) to Delhi’s air in November 2023. The average resident of this megacity is on track to lose ⁓ 8 years of life expectancy if high pollution levels persist (EPIC, 2023). Authorities in this smog-ridden capital, even imposed emergency school closures of 7 to 15 days in 2016, 2017 and 2023 to mitigate health issues in the population, who flooded emergency wards at hospitals.
德里上空的天空变得模糊不清,能见度大大降低,空气中弥漫着浓重的烟雾,让人的眼睛有一种灼烧感。和每年的 11 月一样,厚厚的烟雾笼罩着德里及其周边的印度国家首都区(NCR),它们是世界上污染最严重的大城市。据一位资深肺病专家和世界卫生组织全球空气污染与健康委员会成员称,每年 10-11 月期间,呼吸困难的患者会增加 30%-40%。但是,德里的烟雾在初冬并不总是这么严重,它是在大约 10-15 年前才开始出现的。卫星图像显示,一旦农民开始在农田里焚烧稻草和秸秆(农用残留物),气溶胶光学深度(AOD)就会很高,空气质量就会严重恶化。德里周边农业地区的农业残留物烟雾,加上城市车辆、工业和排灯节烟花爆竹造成的污染,使污染物增加到严重级别。2023 年 11 月,德里空气中的 PM2.5(损害肺部并可能加重心脏疾病的微小颗粒)约有 ⁓ 26-50%来自收获后的农田火灾烟雾。如果污染水平居高不下,这座大城市的居民平均寿命将缩短 8 年(EPIC,2023 年)。在这个烟雾弥漫的首都,当局甚至在 2016 年、2017 年和 2023 年紧急关闭学校 7 至 15 天,以缓解居民的健康问题,这些居民涌入医院的急诊病房。
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引用次数: 0
Trend analysis and forecast of annual precipitation and temperature series in the Eastern Mediterranean region 东地中海地区年降水量和温度序列的趋势分析与预测
Pub Date : 2024-02-15 DOI: 10.20937/atm.53272
Vasileios D. Sakalis
The present study aims to examine the current trend of annual precipitation and temperature series referred to the Eastern Mediterranean basin on a national basis, including the annual variability of sea surface temperature anomalies and the connection effect with the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Mediterranean Oscillation indices (NAOI and MOI, respectively). The period under consideration is mainly the last 32 years, from 1990 to 2021. Additionally, the prediction of monthly and yearly temperature and precipitation series, based on the autoregressive integrated moving average model on a national base, for the next four or eight years, is another interesting feature of the present study. Results indicate rising trends in the annual precipitation during 1990-2021, mostly non-significant and significant warming trends in the annual temperature, including sea surface temperature. The NAOI is highly correlated mostly with annual temperature, whereas the MOI does not affect the variation of annual precipitation and temperature. The results of the present study are in general agreement with the results of available studies in the literature, and they could be of high interest to national authorities and environmental unions/organizations, to help decision-makers face climate change.
本研究旨在以国家为基础,研究东地中海盆地年降水量和温度序列的当前趋势,包括海面温度异常的年变化以及与北大西洋涛动和地中海涛动指数(分别为 NAOI 和 MOI)的联系效应。考虑的时期主要是过去 32 年,从 1990 年到 2021 年。此外,本研究的另一个有趣的特点是,基于自回归综合移动平均模型,以国家为基础,预测未来四年或八年的月度和年度气温和降水量序列。研究结果表明,1990-2021 年期间,年降水量呈上升趋势,年气温(包括海面温度)大多呈不显著和显著的变暖趋势。NAOI 主要与年气温高度相关,而 MOI 并不影响年降水量和年气温的变化。本研究的结果与现有文献的研究结果基本一致,国家当局和环境联盟/组织对这些结果很感兴趣,有助于决策者应对气候变化。
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引用次数: 0
Trend analysis and forecast of annual precipitation and temperature series in the Eastern Mediterranean region 东地中海地区年降水量和温度序列的趋势分析与预测
Pub Date : 2024-02-15 DOI: 10.20937/atm.53272
Vasileios D. Sakalis
The present study aims to examine the current trend of annual precipitation and temperature series referred to the Eastern Mediterranean basin on a national basis, including the annual variability of sea surface temperature anomalies and the connection effect with the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Mediterranean Oscillation indices (NAOI and MOI, respectively). The period under consideration is mainly the last 32 years, from 1990 to 2021. Additionally, the prediction of monthly and yearly temperature and precipitation series, based on the autoregressive integrated moving average model on a national base, for the next four or eight years, is another interesting feature of the present study. Results indicate rising trends in the annual precipitation during 1990-2021, mostly non-significant and significant warming trends in the annual temperature, including sea surface temperature. The NAOI is highly correlated mostly with annual temperature, whereas the MOI does not affect the variation of annual precipitation and temperature. The results of the present study are in general agreement with the results of available studies in the literature, and they could be of high interest to national authorities and environmental unions/organizations, to help decision-makers face climate change.
本研究旨在以国家为基础,研究东地中海盆地年降水量和温度序列的当前趋势,包括海面温度异常的年变化以及与北大西洋涛动和地中海涛动指数(分别为 NAOI 和 MOI)的联系效应。考虑的时期主要是过去 32 年,从 1990 年到 2021 年。此外,本研究的另一个有趣的特点是,基于自回归综合移动平均模型,以国家为基础,预测未来四年或八年的月度和年度气温和降水量序列。研究结果表明,1990-2021 年期间,年降水量呈上升趋势,年气温(包括海面温度)大多呈不显著和显著的变暖趋势。NAOI 主要与年气温高度相关,而 MOI 并不影响年降水量和年气温的变化。本研究的结果与现有文献的研究结果基本一致,国家当局和环境联盟/组织对这些结果很感兴趣,有助于决策者应对气候变化。
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引用次数: 0
Carbonaceous particles and PM2.5 optical properties in Mexico City during the ACU15 campaign ACU15 活动期间墨西哥城的碳质颗粒和 PM2.5 光学特性
Pub Date : 2024-01-24 DOI: 10.20937/atm.53270
Naxieli Santiago-De La Rosa, Cristina Prieto, Ruben Pavia, Oscar Peralta, Harry Alvarez-Ospína, I. Saavedra, Telma Castro, Rocío García, María de la Luz Espinosa, Abraham Ortínez-Álvarez, Gerardo Ruíz-Suárez, A. Martínez-Arroyo
We measured the optical properties of aerosols with two photoacoustic spectrometers operating at 532 and 870 nm wavelengths and sampled PM2.5 to analyze the organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) content. The measuring site was in the southwest corner of Mexico City. We sorted the data by OC/EC ratios and calculated four mass absorption efficiencies (MAEs) for each wavelength with linear regressions. The MAEs ranged from 2.27 to 19.75 and 2.03 to 15.26 m2 g–1 at 532 and 870 nm, respectively, with determination coefficients above 0.88, showing that the amount of OC modifies the absorption properties of particles, sometimes underestimating or overestimating the black carbon concentration. It is possible to choose the MAE based on the daily median O3 concentration when there is no information about the EC and OC composition.
我们使用两台波长分别为 532 纳米和 870 纳米的光声光谱仪测量气溶胶的光学特性,并对 PM2.5 进行采样,分析其中的有机碳 (OC) 和元素碳 (EC) 含量。测量地点位于墨西哥城西南角。我们按照 OC/EC 比率对数据进行了分类,并通过线性回归计算出了每个波长的四个质量吸收效率(MAE)。在 532 纳米和 870 纳米波段,MAE 分别为 2.27-19.75 和 2.03-15.26 m2 g-1,确定系数均在 0.88 以上,表明 OC 的数量会改变颗粒的吸收特性,有时会低估或高估黑碳浓度。在没有 EC 和 OC 成分信息的情况下,可以根据 O3 浓度的日中值来选择 MAE。
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引用次数: 0
Solar PV technologies selection for the design of photovoltaic installations in Mexico based on the analysis of meteorological satellite data from the region 根据对墨西哥地区气象卫星数据的分析,选择太阳能光伏技术以设计光伏装置
Pub Date : 2023-12-08 DOI: 10.20937/atm.53282
Ricardo Miranda-Jiménez, Osvaldo Vigil-Galán, J. González-Castillo, Á. R. Terán-Cuevas, M. Gutiérrez-Castillo, L. R. Tovar-Gálvez
Mexico’s expansive territory spans diverse climatic conditions, which directly influences the selection of commercial photovoltaic technologies. This study utilizes solar irradiance, temperature, and cloud index data (derived from satellite sources) to generate a suitability map for commercial solar panel technologies through the Analytical Hierarchy Process-Geographical Information Systems methodology. The map illustrates that chalcopyrites and cadmium telluride emerge as the most suitable technologies in 47.12% of the national territory. Following closely behind is amorphous silicon, covering 30.45%, while monocrystalline and polycrystalline silicon account for 22.43%. The primary objective of this paper is to guide the proper selection of solar panel technology types that align optimally with Mexico’s climatic conditions. This strategic approach aims to strengthen the planning and viability of photovoltaic solar energy projects nationwide.
墨西哥广袤的国土覆盖了多种气候条件,这直接影响了商业光伏技术的选择。本研究利用太阳辐照度、温度和云指数数据(来自卫星来源),通过层次分析法-地理信息系统方法生成商业太阳能电池板技术的适用性图。该地图显示,在47.12%的国家领土上,黄铜矿和碲化镉成为最合适的技术。紧随其后的是非晶硅,占比30.45%,单晶硅和多晶硅占比22.43%。本文的主要目的是指导太阳能电池板技术类型的适当选择,以最佳地适应墨西哥的气候条件。这一战略方针旨在加强全国光伏太阳能项目的规划和可行性。
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引用次数: 0
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