Pub Date : 2022-03-17DOI: 10.15447/sfews.2022v20iss20art3
Brock M. Huntsman, B. Mahardja, Samuel M. Bashevkin
Fish monitoring gears rarely capture all available fish, an inherent bias in monitoring programs referred to as catchability. Catchability is a source of bias that can be affected by numerous aspects of gear deployment (e.g., deployment speed, mesh size, and avoidance behavior). Thus, care must be taken when multiple surveys—especially those using different sampling methods—are combined to answer spatio-temporal questions about population and community dynamics. We assessed relative catchability differences among four long-term fish monitoring surveys from the San Francisco Estuary: the Bay Study Otter Trawl (BSOT), the Bay Study Midwater Trawl (BSMT), the Fall Midwater Trawl (FMWT), and the Suisun Marsh Otter Trawl (SMOT). We used generalized additive models with a spatio-temporal smoother and survey as a fixed effect to predict gear-specific estimates of catch for 45 different fish species within large and small size classes. We used estimates of the fixed effect coefficients for each survey (e.g., BSOT) relative to the reference gear (FMWT) to develop relative measures of catchability among taxa, surveys, and fish-size classes, termed the catch-ratio. We found higher relative catchability of 27%, 22%, and 57% of fish species in large size classes from the FMWT than in the BSMT, BSOT, or SMOT, respectively. In the small size class, relative catchability was higher in the FMWT than the BSMT, BSOT, or SMOT for 50%, 18%, and 25% of fish species, respectively. As expected, relative catchability of demersal species was higher in the otter trawls (BSOT, SMOT) while relative catchability of pelagic species was higher in the midwater trawls (FMWT, BSMT). Our results demonstrate that catchability is a source of bias among monitoring efforts within the San Francisco Estuary, and assuming equal catchability among surveys, species, and size classes could result in significant bias when describing spatio-temporal patterns in catch if ignored.
{"title":"Relative Bias in Catch Among Long-Term Fish Monitoring Surveys Within the San Francisco Estuary","authors":"Brock M. Huntsman, B. Mahardja, Samuel M. Bashevkin","doi":"10.15447/sfews.2022v20iss20art3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15447/sfews.2022v20iss20art3","url":null,"abstract":"Fish monitoring gears rarely capture all available fish, an inherent bias in monitoring programs referred to as catchability. Catchability is a source of bias that can be affected by numerous aspects of gear deployment (e.g., deployment speed, mesh size, and avoidance behavior). Thus, care must be taken when multiple surveys—especially those using different sampling methods—are combined to answer spatio-temporal questions about population and community dynamics. We assessed relative catchability differences among four long-term fish monitoring surveys from the San Francisco Estuary: the Bay Study Otter Trawl (BSOT), the Bay Study Midwater Trawl (BSMT), the Fall Midwater Trawl (FMWT), and the Suisun Marsh Otter Trawl (SMOT). We used generalized additive models with a spatio-temporal smoother and survey as a fixed effect to predict gear-specific estimates of catch for 45 different fish species within large and small size classes. We used estimates of the fixed effect coefficients for each survey (e.g., BSOT) relative to the reference gear (FMWT) to develop relative measures of catchability among taxa, surveys, and fish-size classes, termed the catch-ratio. We found higher relative catchability of 27%, 22%, and 57% of fish species in large size classes from the FMWT than in the BSMT, BSOT, or SMOT, respectively. In the small size class, relative catchability was higher in the FMWT than the BSMT, BSOT, or SMOT for 50%, 18%, and 25% of fish species, respectively. As expected, relative catchability of demersal species was higher in the otter trawls (BSOT, SMOT) while relative catchability of pelagic species was higher in the midwater trawls (FMWT, BSMT). Our results demonstrate that catchability is a source of bias among monitoring efforts within the San Francisco Estuary, and assuming equal catchability among surveys, species, and size classes could result in significant bias when describing spatio-temporal patterns in catch if ignored.","PeriodicalId":38364,"journal":{"name":"San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43901203","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-03-17DOI: 10.15447/sfews.2022v20iss20art2
J. Eschenroeder, Matthew L. Peterson, Michael Hellmair, Tyler J Pilger, D. Demko, Andrea Fuller
Steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss expressing an anadromous life history) in the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers and their tributaries in California’s Central Valley (CCV) belong to a Distinct Population Segment (DPS) that is listed as threatened under the US Endangered Species Act. Although contemporary management and recovery plans include numerous planned and ongoing efforts seeking to aid in DPS recovery—such as gravel augmentation, manipulation of spring flows, and restoration of rearing and spawning habitat—a paucity of data precludes the possibility of evaluating the effect of these actions on populations of Steelhead in CCV streams. Knowledge gaps relating to historic and current abundance, population-specific ratios of resident and anadromous life-history expression, and the influence of hatchery-reared fish remain largely unaddressed. This is partly a result of aspects of Steelhead biology that make them difficult to monitor, including the multitude of factors that contribute to the expression of anadromy, polymorphic populations, and migration periods that coincide with challenging field conditions. However, these gaps in understanding are also partly the result of an institutional focus on Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and a pervasive notion that actions benefiting Chinook populations will also benefit Steelhead populations. To evaluate these gaps and to suggest approaches for assessing DPS recovery actions, we review available data and existing monitoring efforts, and consider the actions necessary to inform the development of targeted O. mykiss monitoring programs. Current management and recovery goals focus on abundance estimates of Steelhead only, yet current monitoring is insufficient for reliable estimates. We argue that a reallocation of monitoring resources to better understand the interaction between resident O. mykiss and Steelhead would provide better data to estimate the vital rates needed to evaluate the effects of recovery actions.
{"title":"Counting the Parts to Understand the Whole: Rethinking Monitoring of Steelhead in California’s Central Valley","authors":"J. Eschenroeder, Matthew L. Peterson, Michael Hellmair, Tyler J Pilger, D. Demko, Andrea Fuller","doi":"10.15447/sfews.2022v20iss20art2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15447/sfews.2022v20iss20art2","url":null,"abstract":"Steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss expressing an anadromous life history) in the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers and their tributaries in California’s Central Valley (CCV) belong to a Distinct Population Segment (DPS) that is listed as threatened under the US Endangered Species Act. Although contemporary management and recovery plans include numerous planned and ongoing efforts seeking to aid in DPS recovery—such as gravel augmentation, manipulation of spring flows, and restoration of rearing and spawning habitat—a paucity of data precludes the possibility of evaluating the effect of these actions on populations of Steelhead in CCV streams. Knowledge gaps relating to historic and current abundance, population-specific ratios of resident and anadromous life-history expression, and the influence of hatchery-reared fish remain largely unaddressed. This is partly a result of aspects of Steelhead biology that make them difficult to monitor, including the multitude of factors that contribute to the expression of anadromy, polymorphic populations, and migration periods that coincide with challenging field conditions. However, these gaps in understanding are also partly the result of an institutional focus on Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and a pervasive notion that actions benefiting Chinook populations will also benefit Steelhead populations. To evaluate these gaps and to suggest approaches for assessing DPS recovery actions, we review available data and existing monitoring efforts, and consider the actions necessary to inform the development of targeted O. mykiss monitoring programs. Current management and recovery goals focus on abundance estimates of Steelhead only, yet current monitoring is insufficient for reliable estimates. We argue that a reallocation of monitoring resources to better understand the interaction between resident O. mykiss and Steelhead would provide better data to estimate the vital rates needed to evaluate the effects of recovery actions.","PeriodicalId":38364,"journal":{"name":"San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41372153","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-03-17DOI: 10.15447/sfews.2022v20iss20art4
D. Gille, Bryan T. Barney, A. Segarra, M. Baerwald, Andrea Schreier, R. Connon
Pathogen surveillance must be part of any population supplementation or reintroduction program for the conservation of threatened and endangered species. The unintended transmission of pathogens can have devastating effects on these already at-risk populations or the natural ecosystem at large. In the San Francisco Estuary (estuary), abundance of the endemic Delta Smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus) has declined to the point where regulatory managers are preparing to augment the wild population using fish propagated in a hatchery to prevent species extinction. Although disease is not an overt cause of population decline, comprehensive pathogen presence and prevalence data are lacking. Here, we performed a pilot study that applied molecular assays originally developed in salmonids to assess the presence of a wide variety of pathogens in the gill tissue of cultured and wild Delta Smelt—as well as cultured fish—deployed in enclosures in the estuary. We found the assays to be highly sensitive, and observed positive detections of a single pathogen, Ichthyophthirius multifiliis, in 13% of cultured Delta Smelt. We also detected ten other pathogens at very low levels in cultured, enclosure-deployed, and wild Delta Smelt that likely represent the ambient pathogen composition in the estuary (as opposed to actual infection). Our results corroborate previous work that cultured Delta Smelt do not appear to present a high risk for pathogen transmission during population supplementation or reintroduction. However, the molecular pathogen screening assays tested here have great utility as an early warning system indicator of when further diagnostic testing might be necessary to limit the extent and frequency of disease outbreaks; their utility will be further increased once they are customized for Delta Smelt.
{"title":"Investigation of Molecular Pathogen Screening Assays for Use in Delta Smelt","authors":"D. Gille, Bryan T. Barney, A. Segarra, M. Baerwald, Andrea Schreier, R. Connon","doi":"10.15447/sfews.2022v20iss20art4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15447/sfews.2022v20iss20art4","url":null,"abstract":"Pathogen surveillance must be part of any population supplementation or reintroduction program for the conservation of threatened and endangered species. The unintended transmission of pathogens can have devastating effects on these already at-risk populations or the natural ecosystem at large. In the San Francisco Estuary (estuary), abundance of the endemic Delta Smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus) has declined to the point where regulatory managers are preparing to augment the wild population using fish propagated in a hatchery to prevent species extinction. Although disease is not an overt cause of population decline, comprehensive pathogen presence and prevalence data are lacking. Here, we performed a pilot study that applied molecular assays originally developed in salmonids to assess the presence of a wide variety of pathogens in the gill tissue of cultured and wild Delta Smelt—as well as cultured fish—deployed in enclosures in the estuary. We found the assays to be highly sensitive, and observed positive detections of a single pathogen, Ichthyophthirius multifiliis, in 13% of cultured Delta Smelt. We also detected ten other pathogens at very low levels in cultured, enclosure-deployed, and wild Delta Smelt that likely represent the ambient pathogen composition in the estuary (as opposed to actual infection). Our results corroborate previous work that cultured Delta Smelt do not appear to present a high risk for pathogen transmission during population supplementation or reintroduction. However, the molecular pathogen screening assays tested here have great utility as an early warning system indicator of when further diagnostic testing might be necessary to limit the extent and frequency of disease outbreaks; their utility will be further increased once they are customized for Delta Smelt.","PeriodicalId":38364,"journal":{"name":"San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46408866","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-12-13DOI: 10.15447/sfews.2021v19iss4art1
J. Cloern
THE PARADOX OF A HIGH–NUTRIENT, LOW–PRODUCTIVITY ESTUARY Early studies of the San Francisco Estuary (estuary) revealed a paradox of high concentrations of nutrients nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), but low phytoplankton biomass and primary production. Annual primary production measured in 1980 ranged from 110 to 190 g C m 2 between Suisun Bay and South Bay (Cole and Cloern 1984), well below the primary production in other nutrient– rich estuaries such as Chesapeake Bay and Long Island sound (Cloern et al. 2014). Annual primary production in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta (Delta) has decreased to only 70 g C m 2 (Jassby et al. 2002), and low productivity at the food web base is a contributing factor to declining abundances of native fish and their food resources (Sommer et al. 2007). research four attributes of estuary that constrain phytoplankton light in South neap tides, fivefold multiple processes: winter–spring, rapid
高营养、低生产力河口的悖论对旧金山河口（河口）的早期研究揭示了高营养氮（N）和磷（P）浓度，但浮游植物生物量和初级生产力较低的悖论。1980年测量的绥孙湾和南湾之间的年初级生产力在110至190 g C m 2之间（Cole和Cloern 1984），远低于其他营养丰富的河口的初级生产力，如切萨皮克湾和长岛湾（Cloern等人，2014）。萨克拉门托-圣华金三角洲（三角洲）的年初级生产力已降至仅70 g C m 2（Jassby等人，2002年），而食物网基地的低生产力是导致本地鱼类及其食物资源丰度下降的一个因素（Sommer等人，2007年）。研究南小潮中河口限制浮游植物光照的四个属性，五倍多重过程：冬季-春季，快速
{"title":"Use Care When Interpreting Correlations: The Ammonium Example in the San Francisco Estuary","authors":"J. Cloern","doi":"10.15447/sfews.2021v19iss4art1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15447/sfews.2021v19iss4art1","url":null,"abstract":"THE PARADOX OF A HIGH–NUTRIENT, LOW–PRODUCTIVITY ESTUARY Early studies of the San Francisco Estuary (estuary) revealed a paradox of high concentrations of nutrients nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), but low phytoplankton biomass and primary production. Annual primary production measured in 1980 ranged from 110 to 190 g C m 2 between Suisun Bay and South Bay (Cole and Cloern 1984), well below the primary production in other nutrient– rich estuaries such as Chesapeake Bay and Long Island sound (Cloern et al. 2014). Annual primary production in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta (Delta) has decreased to only 70 g C m 2 (Jassby et al. 2002), and low productivity at the food web base is a contributing factor to declining abundances of native fish and their food resources (Sommer et al. 2007). research four attributes of estuary that constrain phytoplankton light in South neap tides, fivefold multiple processes: winter–spring, rapid","PeriodicalId":38364,"journal":{"name":"San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44001112","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-12-13DOI: 10.15447/sfews.2021v19iss4art6
D. Saleh, J. Domagalski
Statistical modeling of water-quality data collected at the Sacramento River at Freeport and San Joaquin River near Vernalis, California, USA, was used to examine trends in concentrations and loads of various forms of dissolved and particulate nitrogen and phosphorus that entered the Sacramento–San Joaquin River Delta (Delta) from upstream sources between 1970 and 2019. Ammonium concentrations and loads decreased at the Sacramento River site from the mid-1970s through 1990 because of the consolidation of wastewater treatment and continuously reduced from the mid-1970s to 2019 at the San Joaquin River site. Current ammonium concentrations are mostly below 4 µM (0.056 mg N L–1) at both sites, a concentration above which reductions in phytoplankton productivity or changes in algal species composition may occur. The Sacramento River at Freeport site is located upstream of the Sacramento Regional County Sanitation District’s treatment facility’s discharge point; nutrient water quality there is representative of upstream sources. Inorganic nitrogen (nitrate plus ammonium) concentrations and loading differed at both sites. At the Sacramento River location, concentrations decrease in the summer agricultural season, reducing the molar ratios of nitrogen to phosphorus. In contrast, inorganic nitrogen concentrations increase in the San Joaquin River during the agricultural season as a result of irrigation runoff, increasing the molar ratio of nitrogen to phosphorus. This increase suggests a possible nitrogen limitation in the northern Delta and a phosphorus limitation in the southern Delta, as indicated by the molar ratios of bioavailable nitrogen to bioavailable phosphorus. Planned upgrades to the Sacramento Regional Wastewater Treatment Plant (SRWTP) will reduce inorganic nitrogen inputs to the northern Delta. Consequently, the supply of bioavailable nitrogen throughout the upper estuary should diminish. Source modeling of nitrogen and phosphorus identifies agriculture, atmospheric deposition, and wastewater effluent as sources of total nitrogen in the Central Valley. In contrast, geologic sources, agriculture, and wastewater discharge are the primary sources of phosphorus.
对美国加利福尼亚州维尔纳里斯附近的萨克拉门托河和弗里波特附近的圣华金河收集的水质数据进行统计建模，用于研究1970年至2019年间从上游来源进入萨克拉门托-圣华金河三角洲(三角洲)的各种形式的溶解态和颗粒态氮和磷的浓度和负荷趋势。从20世纪70年代中期到1990年，由于废水处理的巩固，萨克拉门托河遗址的铵浓度和负荷下降，从20世纪70年代中期到2019年，圣华金河遗址的铵浓度和负荷持续下降。目前这两个地点的铵浓度大多低于4µM (0.056 mg N - L-1)，高于该浓度可能会导致浮游植物生产力下降或藻类种类组成发生变化。位于自由港的萨克拉门托河位于萨克拉门托地区县卫生区处理设施排放点的上游;营养水水质具有上游来源的代表性。两个地点的无机氮(硝态氮和铵态氮)浓度和负荷不同。在萨克拉门托河的位置，浓度在夏季农业季节下降，降低氮与磷的摩尔比。相比之下，在农业季节，由于灌溉径流，圣华金河中的无机氮浓度增加，氮磷摩尔比增加。生物有效氮与生物有效磷的摩尔比表明，这种增加表明北部三角洲可能存在氮限制，南部三角洲可能存在磷限制。萨克拉门托地区污水处理厂(SRWTP)的计划升级将减少流入北部三角洲的无机氮。因此，整个河口上游的生物有效氮供应应该减少。氮和磷的来源模型确定农业、大气沉积和废水排放是中央山谷中总氮的来源。相比之下，地质来源、农业和废水排放是磷的主要来源。
{"title":"Concentrations, Loads, and Associated Trends of Nutrients Entering the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta, California","authors":"D. Saleh, J. Domagalski","doi":"10.15447/sfews.2021v19iss4art6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15447/sfews.2021v19iss4art6","url":null,"abstract":"Statistical modeling of water-quality data collected at the Sacramento River at Freeport and San Joaquin River near Vernalis, California, USA, was used to examine trends in concentrations and loads of various forms of dissolved and particulate nitrogen and phosphorus that entered the Sacramento–San Joaquin River Delta (Delta) from upstream sources between 1970 and 2019. Ammonium concentrations and loads decreased at the Sacramento River site from the mid-1970s through 1990 because of the consolidation of wastewater treatment and continuously reduced from the mid-1970s to 2019 at the San Joaquin River site. Current ammonium concentrations are mostly below 4 µM (0.056 mg N L–1) at both sites, a concentration above which reductions in phytoplankton productivity or changes in algal species composition may occur. The Sacramento River at Freeport site is located upstream of the Sacramento Regional County Sanitation District’s treatment facility’s discharge point; nutrient water quality there is representative of upstream sources. Inorganic nitrogen (nitrate plus ammonium) concentrations and loading differed at both sites. At the Sacramento River location, concentrations decrease in the summer agricultural season, reducing the molar ratios of nitrogen to phosphorus. In contrast, inorganic nitrogen concentrations increase in the San Joaquin River during the agricultural season as a result of irrigation runoff, increasing the molar ratio of nitrogen to phosphorus. This increase suggests a possible nitrogen limitation in the northern Delta and a phosphorus limitation in the southern Delta, as indicated by the molar ratios of bioavailable nitrogen to bioavailable phosphorus. Planned upgrades to the Sacramento Regional Wastewater Treatment Plant (SRWTP) will reduce inorganic nitrogen inputs to the northern Delta. Consequently, the supply of bioavailable nitrogen throughout the upper estuary should diminish. Source modeling of nitrogen and phosphorus identifies agriculture, atmospheric deposition, and wastewater effluent as sources of total nitrogen in the Central Valley. In contrast, geologic sources, agriculture, and wastewater discharge are the primary sources of phosphorus.","PeriodicalId":38364,"journal":{"name":"San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43150882","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-12-13DOI: 10.15447/sfews.2021v19iss4art4
P. Hutton, J. Rath, E. Ateljevich, Sujoy B. Roy
Accurate estimates of freshwater flow to the San Francisco Estuary are important in successfully regulating this water body, in protecting its beneficial uses, and in accurately modeling its hydrodynamic and water-quality transport regime. For regulatory purposes, freshwater flow to the estuary is not directly measured; rather, it is estimated from a daily balance of upstream Delta inflows, exports, and in-Delta water use termed the net Delta outflow index (NDOI). Field research in the 1960s indicated that NDOI estimates are biased low in summer–fall and biased high in winter–spring as a result of conflating Delta island evapotranspiration estimates with the sum of ungauged hydrologic interactions between channels and islands referred to as net channel depletions. In this work, we employed a 50-year observed salinity record along with gauged tidal flows and an ensemble of five empirical flow-salinity (X2) models to test whether a seasonal bias in Delta outflow estimates could be inferred. We accomplished this objective by conducting statistical analyses and evaluating whether model skill could be improved through seasonal NDOI flow adjustments. Assuming that model residuals are associated with channel depletion uncertainty, our findings corroborate the 1960s research and suggest that channel depletions are biased low in winter months (i.e., NDOI is biased high) and biased high in late summer and early fall months (i.e., NDOI is biased low). The magnitude of seasonal bias, which can reach 1,000 cfs, is a small percentage of typical winter outflow but represents a significant percentage of typical summer outflow. Our findings were derived from five independently developed models, and are consistent with the physical understanding of water exchanges on the islands. This work provides motivation for improved characterization of these exchanges to improve Delta outflow estimates, particularly during drought periods when water supplies are scarce and must be carefully managed.
{"title":"Apparent Seasonal Bias in Delta Outflow Estimates as Revealed in the Historical Salinity Record of the San Francisco Estuary: Implications for Delta Net Channel Depletion Estimates","authors":"P. Hutton, J. Rath, E. Ateljevich, Sujoy B. Roy","doi":"10.15447/sfews.2021v19iss4art4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15447/sfews.2021v19iss4art4","url":null,"abstract":"Accurate estimates of freshwater flow to the San Francisco Estuary are important in successfully regulating this water body, in protecting its beneficial uses, and in accurately modeling its hydrodynamic and water-quality transport regime. For regulatory purposes, freshwater flow to the estuary is not directly measured; rather, it is estimated from a daily balance of upstream Delta inflows, exports, and in-Delta water use termed the net Delta outflow index (NDOI). Field research in the 1960s indicated that NDOI estimates are biased low in summer–fall and biased high in winter–spring as a result of conflating Delta island evapotranspiration estimates with the sum of ungauged hydrologic interactions between channels and islands referred to as net channel depletions. In this work, we employed a 50-year observed salinity record along with gauged tidal flows and an ensemble of five empirical flow-salinity (X2) models to test whether a seasonal bias in Delta outflow estimates could be inferred. We accomplished this objective by conducting statistical analyses and evaluating whether model skill could be improved through seasonal NDOI flow adjustments. Assuming that model residuals are associated with channel depletion uncertainty, our findings corroborate the 1960s research and suggest that channel depletions are biased low in winter months (i.e., NDOI is biased high) and biased high in late summer and early fall months (i.e., NDOI is biased low). The magnitude of seasonal bias, which can reach 1,000 cfs, is a small percentage of typical winter outflow but represents a significant percentage of typical summer outflow. Our findings were derived from five independently developed models, and are consistent with the physical understanding of water exchanges on the islands. This work provides motivation for improved characterization of these exchanges to improve Delta outflow estimates, particularly during drought periods when water supplies are scarce and must be carefully managed.","PeriodicalId":38364,"journal":{"name":"San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46075367","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-12-13DOI: 10.15447/sfews.2021v19iss4art3
J. Rath, P. Hutton, E. Ateljevich, Sujoy B. Roy
This work surveys the performance of several empirical models, all recalibrated to a common data set, that were developed over the past 25 years to relate freshwater flow and salinity in the San Francisco Estuary (estuary). The estuary’s salinity regime—broadly regulated to meet urban, agricultural, and ecosystem beneficial uses—is managed in spring and certain fall months to meet ecosystem objectives by controlling the 2 parts per thousand bottom salinity isohaline position (referred to as X2). We tested five empirical models for accuracy, mean, and transient behavior. We included a sixth model, employing a machine learning framework and variables other than outflow, in this survey to compare fitting skill, but did not subject it to the full suite of tests applied to the other five empirical models. Model performance was observed to vary with hydrology, year, and season, and in some cases exhibited unique limitations as a result of mathematical formulation. However, no single model formulation was found to be consistently superior across a wide range of tests and applications. One test revealed that the models performed equally well when recalibrated to a uniformly perturbed input time-series. Thus, while the models may be used to identify anomalies or seasonal biases (the latter being the subject of a companion paper), their use as inverse models to infer freshwater outflow to the estuary from salinity observations is not expected to improve upon the absolute accuracy of existing outflow estimates. This survey suggests that, for analyses that span a long hydrologic record, an ensemble approach—rather than the use of any individual model on its own—may be preferable to exploit the strengths of individual models.
{"title":"A Survey of X2 Isohaline Empirical Models for the San Francisco Estuary","authors":"J. Rath, P. Hutton, E. Ateljevich, Sujoy B. Roy","doi":"10.15447/sfews.2021v19iss4art3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15447/sfews.2021v19iss4art3","url":null,"abstract":"This work surveys the performance of several empirical models, all recalibrated to a common data set, that were developed over the past 25 years to relate freshwater flow and salinity in the San Francisco Estuary (estuary). The estuary’s salinity regime—broadly regulated to meet urban, agricultural, and ecosystem beneficial uses—is managed in spring and certain fall months to meet ecosystem objectives by controlling the 2 parts per thousand bottom salinity isohaline position (referred to as X2). We tested five empirical models for accuracy, mean, and transient behavior. We included a sixth model, employing a machine learning framework and variables other than outflow, in this survey to compare fitting skill, but did not subject it to the full suite of tests applied to the other five empirical models. Model performance was observed to vary with hydrology, year, and season, and in some cases exhibited unique limitations as a result of mathematical formulation. However, no single model formulation was found to be consistently superior across a wide range of tests and applications. One test revealed that the models performed equally well when recalibrated to a uniformly perturbed input time-series. Thus, while the models may be used to identify anomalies or seasonal biases (the latter being the subject of a companion paper), their use as inverse models to infer freshwater outflow to the estuary from salinity observations is not expected to improve upon the absolute accuracy of existing outflow estimates. This survey suggests that, for analyses that span a long hydrologic record, an ensemble approach—rather than the use of any individual model on its own—may be preferable to exploit the strengths of individual models.","PeriodicalId":38364,"journal":{"name":"San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46437729","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-09-24DOI: 10.15447/sfews.2021v19iss3art4
C. A. Hartman, J. Ackerman, Carley Schacter, M. Herzog, Max Tarjan, Yiwei Wang, Cheryl M. Strong, R. Tertes, Nils Warnock
Availability of wetlands with low salinities during the breeding season can influence waterfowl reproductive success and population recruitment. Salinities as low as 2 ppt (3.6 mScm–1) can impair duckling growth and influence behavior, with mortality occurring above 9 ppt (14.8 mScm–1). We used satellite imagery to quantify the amount of available water, and sampled surface water salinity at Grizzly Island, in the brackish Suisun Marsh, at three time-periods during waterfowl breeding (April, May, July) over 4 years (2016–2019). More water was available and salinity was lower during wetter years (2017, 2019) than during drier years (2016, 2018), and the amount of water in wetlands decreased 73%–86% from April to July. Across all time-periods and years, the majority (64%–100%) of wetland habitat area had salinities above what has been shown to negatively affect ducklings (> 2 ppt), and up to 42% of wetland area had salinities associated with duckling mortality (> 9 ppt). During peak duckling production in May, 81%–95% of available water had salinity above 2 ppt, and 5%–21% was above 9 ppt. In May of the driest year (2016), only 0.5 km2 of low-salinity water (< 2 ppt) was available to ducklings in the study area, compared to 2.6 km2 in May of the wettest year (2017). Private duck clubs own the majority of wetland habitat at Grizzly Island and consistently had a greater percentage of land flooded during summer than did publicly owned wetlands, but private wetlands generally had higher salinities than public wetlands, likely because they draw from higher-salinity water sources. By July, few wetlands remained flooded, and most had salinities high enough to impair duckling growth and survival. Local waterfowl populations would benefit from management practices that provide fresher water during peak duckling production in May and retain more water through July.
{"title":"Breeding Waterbird Populations Have Declined in South San Francisco Bay: An Assessment Over Two Decades","authors":"C. A. Hartman, J. Ackerman, Carley Schacter, M. Herzog, Max Tarjan, Yiwei Wang, Cheryl M. Strong, R. Tertes, Nils Warnock","doi":"10.15447/sfews.2021v19iss3art4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15447/sfews.2021v19iss3art4","url":null,"abstract":"Availability of wetlands with low salinities during the breeding season can influence waterfowl reproductive success and population recruitment. Salinities as low as 2 ppt (3.6 mScm–1) can impair duckling growth and influence behavior, with mortality occurring above 9 ppt (14.8 mScm–1). We used satellite imagery to quantify the amount of available water, and sampled surface water salinity at Grizzly Island, in the brackish Suisun Marsh, at three time-periods during waterfowl breeding (April, May, July) over 4 years (2016–2019). More water was available and salinity was lower during wetter years (2017, 2019) than during drier years (2016, 2018), and the amount of water in wetlands decreased 73%–86% from April to July. Across all time-periods and years, the majority (64%–100%) of wetland habitat area had salinities above what has been shown to negatively affect ducklings (> 2 ppt), and up to 42% of wetland area had salinities associated with duckling mortality (> 9 ppt). During peak duckling production in May, 81%–95% of available water had salinity above 2 ppt, and 5%–21% was above 9 ppt. In May of the driest year (2016), only 0.5 km2 of low-salinity water (< 2 ppt) was available to ducklings in the study area, compared to 2.6 km2 in May of the wettest year (2017). Private duck clubs own the majority of wetland habitat at Grizzly Island and consistently had a greater percentage of land flooded during summer than did publicly owned wetlands, but private wetlands generally had higher salinities than public wetlands, likely because they draw from higher-salinity water sources. By July, few wetlands remained flooded, and most had salinities high enough to impair duckling growth and survival. Local waterfowl populations would benefit from management practices that provide fresher water during peak duckling production in May and retain more water through July.","PeriodicalId":38364,"journal":{"name":"San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46954775","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-09-24DOI: 10.15447/sfews.2021v19iss3art2
Patricia L. Brandes, U. Fish, Brian J. Pyper, M. Banks, David Jacobsen, T. Garrison, Steven P. Cramer, Llc Steve Cramer Emeritus Consulting
There are four distinct runs of Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in the Central Valley, named after their primary adult return times: fall, late-fall, winter, and spring run. Estimating the run-specific composition of juveniles entering and leaving the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta is crucial for assessing population status and processes that affect juvenile survival through the Delta. Historically, the run of juvenile Chinook Salmon captured in the field has been determined using a length-at-date criteria (LDC); however, LDC run assignments may be inaccurate if there is high overlap in the run-specific timing and size of juveniles entering and leaving the Delta. In this study, we use genetic run assignments to assess the accuracy of LDC at two trawl locations in the Sacramento River (Delta entry) and at Chipps Island (Delta exit). Fin tissues were collected from approximately 7,500 juvenile Chinook Salmon captured in trawl samples between 2007 and 2011. Tissues were analyzed using 21 microsatellites to determine genetic run assignments for individuals, which we compared with LDC run assignments. Across years, there was extensive overlap among the distributions of run-specific fork lengths of genetically identified juveniles, indicating that run compositions based on LDC assignments would tend to underestimate fall-run and especially late-fall-run compositions at both trawl locations, and greatly overestimate spring-run compositions (both locations) and winter-run compositions (Chipps Island). We therefore strongly support ongoing efforts to include tissue sampling and genetic run identification of juvenile Chinook Salmon at key monitoring locations in the Sacramento–San Joaquin River system.
{"title":"Comparison of Length-at-Date Criteria and Genetic Run Assignments for Juvenile Chinook Salmon Caught at Sacramento and Chipps Island in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta of California","authors":"Patricia L. Brandes, U. Fish, Brian J. Pyper, M. Banks, David Jacobsen, T. Garrison, Steven P. Cramer, Llc Steve Cramer Emeritus Consulting","doi":"10.15447/sfews.2021v19iss3art2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15447/sfews.2021v19iss3art2","url":null,"abstract":"There are four distinct runs of Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in the Central Valley, named after their primary adult return times: fall, late-fall, winter, and spring run. Estimating the run-specific composition of juveniles entering and leaving the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta is crucial for assessing population status and processes that affect juvenile survival through the Delta. Historically, the run of juvenile Chinook Salmon captured in the field has been determined using a length-at-date criteria (LDC); however, LDC run assignments may be inaccurate if there is high overlap in the run-specific timing and size of juveniles entering and leaving the Delta. In this study, we use genetic run assignments to assess the accuracy of LDC at two trawl locations in the Sacramento River (Delta entry) and at Chipps Island (Delta exit). Fin tissues were collected from approximately 7,500 juvenile Chinook Salmon captured in trawl samples between 2007 and 2011. Tissues were analyzed using 21 microsatellites to determine genetic run assignments for individuals, which we compared with LDC run assignments. Across years, there was extensive overlap among the distributions of run-specific fork lengths of genetically identified juveniles, indicating that run compositions based on LDC assignments would tend to underestimate fall-run and especially late-fall-run compositions at both trawl locations, and greatly overestimate spring-run compositions (both locations) and winter-run compositions (Chipps Island). We therefore strongly support ongoing efforts to include tissue sampling and genetic run identification of juvenile Chinook Salmon at key monitoring locations in the Sacramento–San Joaquin River system.","PeriodicalId":38364,"journal":{"name":"San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41943918","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-09-24DOI: 10.15447/sfews.2021v19iss3art5
Carley Schacter, S. Peterson, M. Herzog, C. A. Hartman, M. Casazza, J. Ackerman
Availability of wetlands with low salinities during the breeding season can influence waterfowl reproductive success and population recruitment. Salinities as low as 2 ppt (3.6 mScm–1) can impair duckling growth and influence behavior, with mortality occurring above 9 ppt (14.8 mScm–1). We used satellite imagery to quantify the amount of available water, and sampled surface water salinity at Grizzly Island, in the brackish Suisun Marsh, at three time-periods during waterfowl breeding (April, May, July) over 4 years (2016–2019). More water was available and salinity was lower during wetter years (2017, 2019) than during drier years (2016, 2018), and the amount of water in wetlands decreased 73%–86% from April to July. Across all time-periods and years, the majority (64%–100%) of wetland habitat area had salinities above what has been shown to negatively affect ducklings (> 2 ppt), and up to 42% of wetland area had salinities associated with duckling mortality (> 9 ppt). During peak duckling production in May, 81%–95% of available water had salinity above 2 ppt, and 5%–21% was above 9 ppt. In May of the driest year (2016), only 0.5 km2 of low-salinity water (< 2 ppt) was available to ducklings in the study area, compared to 2.6 km2 in May of the wettest year (2017). Private duck clubs own the majority of wetland habitat at Grizzly Island and consistently had a greater percentage of land flooded during summer than did publicly owned wetlands, but private wetlands generally had higher salinities than public wetlands, likely because they draw from higher-salinity water sources. By July, few wetlands remained flooded, and most had salinities high enough to impair duckling growth and survival. Local waterfowl populations would benefit from management practices that provide fresher water during peak duckling production in May and retain more water through July.
{"title":"Wetland Availability and Salinity Concentrations for Breeding Waterfowl in Suisun Marsh, California","authors":"Carley Schacter, S. Peterson, M. Herzog, C. A. Hartman, M. Casazza, J. Ackerman","doi":"10.15447/sfews.2021v19iss3art5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15447/sfews.2021v19iss3art5","url":null,"abstract":"Availability of wetlands with low salinities during the breeding season can influence waterfowl reproductive success and population recruitment. Salinities as low as 2 ppt (3.6 mScm–1) can impair duckling growth and influence behavior, with mortality occurring above 9 ppt (14.8 mScm–1). We used satellite imagery to quantify the amount of available water, and sampled surface water salinity at Grizzly Island, in the brackish Suisun Marsh, at three time-periods during waterfowl breeding (April, May, July) over 4 years (2016–2019). More water was available and salinity was lower during wetter years (2017, 2019) than during drier years (2016, 2018), and the amount of water in wetlands decreased 73%–86% from April to July. Across all time-periods and years, the majority (64%–100%) of wetland habitat area had salinities above what has been shown to negatively affect ducklings (> 2 ppt), and up to 42% of wetland area had salinities associated with duckling mortality (> 9 ppt). During peak duckling production in May, 81%–95% of available water had salinity above 2 ppt, and 5%–21% was above 9 ppt. In May of the driest year (2016), only 0.5 km2 of low-salinity water (< 2 ppt) was available to ducklings in the study area, compared to 2.6 km2 in May of the wettest year (2017). Private duck clubs own the majority of wetland habitat at Grizzly Island and consistently had a greater percentage of land flooded during summer than did publicly owned wetlands, but private wetlands generally had higher salinities than public wetlands, likely because they draw from higher-salinity water sources. By July, few wetlands remained flooded, and most had salinities high enough to impair duckling growth and survival. Local waterfowl populations would benefit from management practices that provide fresher water during peak duckling production in May and retain more water through July.","PeriodicalId":38364,"journal":{"name":"San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42374979","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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