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What Predicts the Growth of Small Firms? Evidence from Tanzanian Commercial Loan Data 什么可以预测小公司的增长?坦桑尼亚商业贷款数据的证据
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-08-01 DOI: 10.3386/w31620
Mia Ellis, Cynthia Kinnan, Margaret McMillan, Sarah Shaukat
Abstract Not all firms have equal capacity to absorb productive credit. Identifying those with higher potential may have large consequences for productivity. We collect detailed survey data on small- and medium-sized Tanzanian firms who borrow from a large commercial bank, which in turn raises funds via international capital markets. Using machine learning methods to identify predictors of loan growth, we document, first, that we achieve high rates of predictive power. Second, “soft” information (entrepreneurs’ motivations for entrepreneurship and constraints faced) has predictive power over and above administrative data (sector, age, etc.). Third, there is a different and larger set of predictors for women than men, consistent with greater barriers to efficient capital allocation among female entrepreneurs.
并非所有企业都具有同等的吸收生产性信贷的能力。识别出那些更有潜力的人可能会对生产力产生很大的影响。我们收集了坦桑尼亚中小型企业的详细调查数据,这些企业从大型商业银行借款,进而通过国际资本市场筹集资金。使用机器学习方法来识别贷款增长的预测因素,我们首先证明了我们实现了高预测能力。其次,“软”信息(企业家的创业动机和面临的约束)比行政数据(行业、年龄等)具有更强的预测能力。第三,与男性相比,女性有一套不同的、更多的预测指标,这与女性企业家在有效配置资本方面面临的更大障碍是一致的。
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引用次数: 1
Addressing Balance of Payment Disequilibrium Through Non-Oil Export and Exchange Rate Stability in Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation 通过非石油出口和尼日利亚汇率稳定解决国际收支失衡:一项实证调查
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-07-24 DOI: 10.1515/jgd-2022-0026
C. Agu, D. Obodoechi, I. K. Nebo
Abstract This study investigates the impact of non-oil export on the Nigeria balance of payment between 1981 and 2020. To achieve the broad objective, two specific objectives were set out, viz: investigate the impact of non-oil export on the Nigeria balance of payment; and examine the level of impact of exchange rate volatility on balance of payment in Nigeria. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) and Error Correction Model (ECM), the findings of the study show that non-oil exports have had a strong positive impact on Nigeria’s balance of payment within the period under study both in the short and long-run. It shows that a percentage increase in non-oil export increases the balance of payment (surplus) by 31.47 % in the long-run. However, exchange rate was shown to have had a negative blow on Nigeria’s balance of payment, though not statistically significant. The study therefore recommend among others that, for Nigeria to enjoy a surplus balance of payment, which is one of her major macroeconomic goals, there is the need to shift attention to the non-oil sector which has always been the main source of her foreign exchange earnings prior to the discovery of crude oil.
摘要本研究调查了1981年至2020年间非石油出口对尼日利亚国际收支的影响。为了实现这一广泛目标,制定了两个具体目标,即:调查非石油出口对尼日利亚国际收支的影响;研究汇率波动对尼日利亚国际收支的影响程度。使用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)和误差校正模型(ECM),研究结果表明,在研究期间内,非石油出口对尼日利亚的国际收支产生了短期和长期的积极影响。报告显示,非石油出口的百分比增长使国际收支(顺差)增加31.47 % 从长远来看。然而,汇率对尼日利亚的国际收支产生了负面影响,尽管在统计上并不显著。因此,该研究建议,为了使尼日利亚享有国际收支盈余,这是其主要的宏观经济目标之一,有必要将注意力转移到非石油部门,在发现原油之前,非石油部门一直是其外汇收入的主要来源。
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引用次数: 0
Frontmatter 头版头条
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1515/jgd-2023-frontmatter1
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引用次数: 0
Non-tariff Measures and Regulatory Alignment in a North-South Context: Assessing Compliance Costs for Tunisian Agriculture under the EU-Tunisia Free Trade Agreement (ALECA) 南北背景下的非关税措施和监管调整:评估欧盟-突尼斯自由贸易协定(ALECA)下突尼斯农业的合规成本
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-05-19 DOI: 10.1515/jgd-2021-0044
Bernhard Tröster, Rudiger von Arnim, W. Raza, Jihen Chandoul, Chafik Ben Rouine
Abstract Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs) are usually defined as trade costs. Their reduction through regulatory alignment increases trade and could thus be beneficial for countries concerned. NTMs include any regulations at and behind the border (i.e. domestic regulations) that may have an impact on trade. This view of NTMs does not account for potential benefits on public policy goals, welfare, value addition and trade flows. Further, asymmetrical NTM alignment between countries with strongly divergent regulatory standards will cause adjustment and compliance costs. Here we integrate the effects of compliance costs for producers emerging from regulatory alignment into the ‘ÖFSE Global Trade’ model. We use the ongoing negotiations on the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement between the EU and Tunisia (ALECA) to empirically assess the compliance costs for Tunisian agricultural producers to align to EU standards and model potential economic impacts. Scenario designs for our simulation analysis build on firm surveys. Results show that North-South trade agreements with asymmetrical regulatory alignment involve substantial adjustment costs for Southern producers and lead to losses in exports, value-added and employment, resulting in high economic and social costs that need to be weighed by policy-makers against any perceived long run gains from regulatory alignment.
摘要非关税措施通常被定义为贸易成本。通过调整监管来减少它们增加了贸易,因此可能对有关国家有利。NTM包括边境内外可能对贸易产生影响的任何法规(即国内法规)。NTM的这种观点没有考虑到公共政策目标、福利、附加值和贸易流动的潜在好处。此外,监管标准大相径庭的国家之间非对称的NTM调整将导致调整和合规成本。在这里,我们将监管调整后生产商的合规成本影响纳入“ÖFSE全球贸易”模型。我们利用欧盟和突尼斯之间正在进行的《深度和全面自由贸易协定》(ALECA)谈判,实证评估突尼斯农业生产者的合规成本,以符合欧盟标准并模拟潜在的经济影响。我们模拟分析的场景设计建立在公司调查的基础上。结果表明,具有不对称监管一致性的南北贸易协定给南方生产商带来了巨大的调整成本,并导致出口、增值和就业方面的损失,导致了高昂的经济和社会成本,决策者需要权衡监管一致性带来的任何长期收益。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluating the Impact of Data Exclusivity on the Price of Pharmaceutical Imports 数据排他性对药品进口价格影响的评估
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-02-23 DOI: 10.1515/jgd-2021-0016
Michael Palmedo
Abstract Data exclusivity is a form of intellectual property (IP) protection that restricts competition by preventing generic firms from relying on originator test results to win regulatory approval. It is a TRIPS-Plus intellectual property provision often required by Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). This study analyses the impact of data exclusivity on aggregated pharmaceutical import prices in a set of 16 countries that enacted data exclusivity as required by FTAs, and six comparator countries that had not introduced this type of IP protection. It uses a difference in differences methodology appropriate for datasets in which treatment occurs at different periods, and in which treatment affects are heterogeneous over time. Between 1996 and 2014, pharmaceutical import prices were 14–20% higher on average in countries that had enacted data exclusivity than those that had not. Since these laws only applied to products entering the market after their enactment, their impact took time to become apparent. It eventually became quite large. The first statistically significant difference in prices occurred seven years after countries introduced data exclusivity. Nine years after these changes, the price differences averaged 175–210%.
摘要数据排他性是一种知识产权(IP)保护形式,通过防止仿制药公司依赖原始人的测试结果来赢得监管部门的批准,从而限制竞争。这是自由贸易协定经常要求的TRIPS+知识产权条款。这项研究分析了数据排他性对16个按照自由贸易协定要求实行数据排他性的国家和6个未实行此类知识产权保护的比较国药品进口总价格的影响。它使用了一种差异中的差异方法,该方法适用于治疗发生在不同时期的数据集,并且治疗影响随着时间的推移是异质的。在1996年至2014年间,制定了数据排他性的国家的药品进口价格平均比没有制定数据排他性的的国家高14-20%。由于这些法律只适用于颁布后进入市场的产品,其影响需要时间才能显现出来。它最终变得相当大。第一次统计上显著的价格差异发生在各国引入数据排他性七年后。这些变化发生9年后,价格差异平均为175-210%。
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引用次数: 1
Labor Skill, Trade and Capital Intensity, and the Fall of Manufacturing Real Wages: Panel Evidence from Mexican Industries 劳动技能、贸易和资本密集度与制造业实际工资的下降:来自墨西哥工业的小组证据
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-12-05 DOI: 10.1515/jgd-2021-0053
Carlos A Ibarra
Abstract The paper studies the fall in manufacturing real wages that took place in Mexico after the China shock of 2001. It shows, first, that the wage reductions reflected a significant transmission of the China shock, plus a weak link between labor-productivity and real-wage growth; and second, that the weight of these two factors was conditioned by the skill level of workers and the trade and capital intensity of industries in Mexico. Thus, while the China shock hit harder medium and high-skilled workers in capital-intensive industries, the weak link between productivity and wage growth affected more the low-skilled in trade-intensive industries. Results come from the estimation of wage equations by skill level for an annual panel of 20 manufacturing industries at NAICS three-digit level, for different periods but focusing on 1996–2017 (the NAFTA period) and 2003–2017 (the post-China shock period).
摘要本文研究了2001年中国冲击后墨西哥制造业实际工资的下降。它表明,首先,工资下降反映了中国冲击的显著传导,以及劳动生产率和实际工资增长之间的薄弱联系;其次,这两个因素的权重取决于墨西哥工人的技能水平以及行业的贸易和资本密集度。因此,尽管中国冲击对资本密集型行业的中高技能工人的打击更大,但生产率和工资增长之间的薄弱环节对贸易密集型行业中的低技能工人的影响更大。结果来自于对NAICS三位数水平的20个制造业年度面板的技能水平工资方程的估计,针对不同时期,但重点是1996-2017年(北美自由贸易协定时期)和2003-2017年(后中国冲击时期)。
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引用次数: 0
Overcoming Original Sin 克服原罪
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1515/jgd-2021-0055
H. Shin, Goetz von Peter
Abstract This paper draws on newly expanded BIS government bond statistics to document how emerging market sovereigns have reduced their reliance on foreign currency denominated bonds since the emerging market crises of the 1990s. With external funding still important for emerging market governments, they have increasingly been able to borrow from foreign investors in their domestic currency. In this respect, emerging market governments are overcoming “Original Sin”. The flipside of these developments is that foreign investors increasingly bear the currency risk associated with fluctuations in emerging market exchange rates, making foreign investors’ portfolio decisions more sensitive to prevailing global financial conditions. Emerging markets thus remain vulnerable to reversals of investor sentiment in bond markets, whether or not they have outstanding debt in foreign currency.
本文利用国际清算银行最新扩大的政府债券统计数据,记录了自20世纪90年代新兴市场危机以来新兴市场主权国家如何减少对外币计价债券的依赖。由于外部融资对新兴市场政府仍然很重要,它们越来越有能力以本币向外国投资者借款。在这方面,新兴市场政府正在克服“原罪”。这些发展的不利方面是,外国投资者越来越多地承担与新兴市场汇率波动有关的货币风险,使外国投资者的投资组合决策对当前的全球金融状况更加敏感。因此,新兴市场仍然容易受到债券市场投资者情绪逆转的影响,无论它们是否有未偿外币债务。
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引用次数: 3
On the Potential of Sovereign State-Contingent Debt in Contributing to Better Public Debt Management and Enhancing Sustainability Outcomes 论主权国家或有债务在促进更好的公共债务管理和提高可持续性成果方面的潜力
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1515/jgd-2021-0071
Ulrich Volz
Abstract Sovereign state-contingent instruments (SCDIs) have been suggested as complements or alternatives to traditional sovereign debt instruments for a long time, but with little uptake. Markets for SCDIs have suffered from low liquidity and issues around measurement. This article argues that the escalating climate and ecological crises provide a strong rationale to reconsider the use of sovereign SCDIs as the physical and transition impacts of climate change and environmental degradation are increasingly altering the risk profile of sovereigns. The use of risk-linked sovereign instruments such as cat bonds or resilience bonds and embedding disaster risk clauses in sovereign debt contracts would be an important way for governments, especially in highly climate-vulnerable countries, to mitigate climate risks and scale up investment in resilience. Moreover, instruments such as sustainability-linked bonds that incentivise sustainability-oriented policies and investments could help to bring about better sustainability outcomes and contribute to greater debt sustainability. SCDIs can also play an important role in facilitating debt restructurings. The international community, supported by key institutions like the IMF and the major multilateral development banks, should make a concerted effort to promote the widespread adoption of sovereign SCDIs to support better public debt management, the climate-proofing of public finances, and the achievement of more ambitious sustainability outcomes.
摘要长期以来,主权国家或有工具一直被认为是传统主权债务工具的补充或替代品,但很少被采用。SCDI市场一直受到流动性低和计量问题的影响。本文认为,不断升级的气候和生态危机为重新考虑主权SCDI的使用提供了强有力的理由,因为气候变化和环境退化的物理和过渡影响正在日益改变主权国家的风险状况。使用与风险挂钩的主权工具,如猫债或抗灾债券,并在主权债务合同中嵌入灾害风险条款,将是各国政府,特别是气候高度脆弱国家政府,缓解气候风险和扩大抗灾投资的重要途径。此外,激励以可持续性为导向的政策和投资的可持续性挂钩债券等工具有助于实现更好的可持续性成果,并有助于提高债务可持续性。SCDI也可以在促进债务重组方面发挥重要作用。国际社会应在国际货币基金组织和主要多边开发银行等关键机构的支持下,共同努力促进主权SCDI的广泛采用,以支持更好的公共债务管理、公共财政的气候防护,以及实现更雄心勃勃的可持续性成果。
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引用次数: 2
Sovereign Debt Restructuring: The Way Forward 主权债务重组:前进之路
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-11-10 DOI: 10.1515/jgd-2021-0070
M. Xafa
Abstract The timely and orderly resolution of sovereign debt crises has long been a key challenge facing the global financial architecture. The framework for crisis resolution evolved in response to the capital account crises of the 1990s (Mexico, Russia, Southeast Asia), the Argentine crisis of 2001 and its aftermath, and the Global Financial Crisis of 2008–9 which morphed into the Euro area debt crisis of 2010–12. Efforts to expedite crisis resolution involved a two-pronged approach, one focusing on IMF policies and lending facilities and the other on ways to overcome the collective action problems involved in restructuring securitized debt. This paper examines these efforts in the context of the crises that triggered them and provides some guidance for the future. It argues that the way forward involves action on several fronts, including restoration of the essential principle that IMF programs should aim at reaching a manageable debt position within the program period with a high probability.
摘要主权债务危机的及时有序解决长期以来一直是全球金融结构面临的一个关键挑战。危机解决框架的演变是为了应对20世纪90年代的资本账户危机(墨西哥、俄罗斯、东南亚)、2001年的阿根廷危机及其后果,以及2008-2009年的全球金融危机,该危机演变为2010-2012年的欧元区债务危机。加快解决危机的努力涉及双管齐下的方法,一个侧重于货币基金组织的政策和贷款机制,另一个侧重如何克服重组证券化债务所涉及的集体行动问题。本文结合引发这些努力的危机来审视这些努力,并为未来提供一些指导。它认为,前进的道路涉及多个方面的行动,包括恢复国际货币基金组织项目应以在项目期内达到可管理的债务状况为目标的基本原则。
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引用次数: 0
The Political Economy of Bilateral Lending from Emerging Creditors 新兴债权国双边贷款的政治经济学
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-09-15 DOI: 10.1515/jgd-2021-0049
Pippa Morgan
Abstract A paucity of data has thus far made systematic comparative analysis of emerging bilateral creditors a major challenge. In this study I take advantage of new World Bank data on the sovereign creditors of low- and middle-income countries to map the distribution of lending from the key emerging bilateral official creditors during the 21st century, focusing on the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, and China). I then statistically analyze the political and economic factors that drive BRICs’ lending and investigate whether their motivations and terms are different from each other and from “traditional” creditors. The results suggest that concerns about the BRICs using bilateral credit as a foreign policy tool may be overblown. Instead, BRICs official loan commitments are driven by their trading ties with borrowers, and are complements to rather than substitutes for traditional lenders. However, the results also show that countries which borrow proportionately more from the BRICs face significantly less concessional terms on their official external debts compared to borrowing from traditional OECD lenders. Given the growing importance of emerging bilateral creditors, systematic comparative understanding of their motives and behavior has substantial policy relevance, in particular amid COVID-19 induced economic distress across much of the developing world.
迄今为止,由于缺乏数据,对新兴双边债权人进行系统的比较分析成为一项重大挑战。在本研究中,我利用世界银行关于低收入和中等收入国家主权债权人的新数据,绘制了21世纪主要新兴双边官方债权人的贷款分布图,重点关注金砖四国(巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国)。然后,我统计分析了推动金砖国家贷款的政治和经济因素,并调查了它们的动机和条款是否彼此不同,是否与“传统”债权人不同。研究结果表明,对金砖四国将双边信贷作为外交政策工具的担忧可能被夸大了。相反,金砖国家的官方贷款承诺是由它们与借款国的贸易关系推动的,是对传统贷款机构的补充,而不是替代。然而,研究结果也表明,与向经合组织传统贷款机构借款相比,从金砖国家借款比例较高的国家在官方外债方面面临的优惠条件要少得多。鉴于新兴双边债权人的重要性日益增加,对其动机和行为的系统比较理解具有重大的政策意义,特别是在许多发展中国家因新冠疫情而陷入经济困境的情况下。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Globalization and Development
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