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Towards HIPC 2.0? Lessons from Past Debt Relief Initiatives for Addressing Current Debt Problems 迈向重债穷国2.0?解决当前债务问题的过去债务减免举措的经验教训
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-09-14 DOI: 10.1515/jgd-2021-0051
D. Essers, D. Cassimon
Abstract When the COVID-19 pandemic added to already elevated debt vulnerabilities in low-income countries, the G20 launched the Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) and the Common Framework for Debt Treatments beyond the DSSI, which have provided limited relief so far. For several countries, deeper and more wide-ranging debt treatments will likely be needed to secure future debt sustainability. This paper looks at the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative, the largest and most comprehensive debt relief effort for low-income countries to date, as a potential reference point for the 2020s. While the HIPC initiative appears to have been a qualified success, its replication in the current context would be infeasible and undesirable. Creditor base heterogeneity justifies a more flexible, differentiated approach to debt restructuring. Yet, the HIPC experience holds valuable lessons. “Delay and replay” tendencies should be avoided. Involving commercial creditors is a real challenge, requiring carrots and sticks. And imposing extra conditionality on debt relief proceeds could be helpful but should not be overdone. Even if the Common Framework is unlikely to suffice in case of a systemic debt crisis, its inter-creditor dialogue could perhaps serve as the basis for a more inclusive advisory body or forum for debt restructuring.
当2019冠状病毒病大流行加剧了低收入国家本已较高的债务脆弱性时,二十国集团发起了“暂停偿债倡议”(DSSI)和“债务处理共同框架”(DSSI之外),迄今为止提供的救济有限。对一些国家来说,可能需要更深入和更广泛的债务处理,以确保未来的债务可持续性。本文将重债穷国倡议(重债穷国倡议)作为本世纪20年代的一个潜在参考点,该倡议是迄今为止针对低收入国家规模最大、最全面的债务减免努力。虽然重债穷国倡议似乎取得了有限度的成功,但在目前情况下复制它是不可行和不可取的。债权人基础的异质性证明采取更灵活、更有区别的债务重组方法是合理的。然而,重债穷国的经验提供了宝贵的教训。应该避免“延迟和重放”的倾向。涉及商业债权人是一个真正的挑战,需要胡萝卜加大棒。对债务减免收益施加额外条件可能会有所帮助,但不应过度。即使共同框架不太可能足以应对系统性债务危机,但其债权人之间的对话或许可以作为一个更具包容性的债务重组咨询机构或论坛的基础。
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引用次数: 3
IMF Advice on Capital Flows: How Well is it Supported by Empirical Evidence? IMF关于资本流动的建议:有多少实证证据支持?
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.1515/jgd-2021-0030
P. Montiel
Abstract The 1997–98 Asian financial crisis marked a turning point in the IMF’s previously negative views on the usefulness of capital account restrictions, culminating eventually in the publication of the Fund’s new Institutional View (IV) on the topic in 2012. The IV acknowledged that full capital account liberalization may not always be appropriate, accepted that new restrictions could at times have a useful role to play even in countries that had previously liberalized, and spelled out a specific set of circumstances under which the deploying of new restrictions could be justified as temporary measures in response to large capital flows. This paper documents the important role that empirical research, both by the profession at large as well as by the Fund’s own staff, played in supporting the first two components of the IV. It argues, however, that, empirical support is lacking with respect to the third component of the IV: the conditions under which the deployment of temporary capital account restrictions may be desirable. The conditions stipulated under the IV, which have the effect of considerably restricting the scope of circumstances in which the use of restrictions may be appropriate, are not fully justified by empirical evidence or recent experience and are best understood simply as a vestige of the institution’s pre-IV hostility to the use of restrictions.
1997-98年的亚洲金融危机标志着国际货币基金组织之前对资本账户限制有用性的负面看法的转折点,最终导致该组织在2012年发表了关于该主题的新机构观点(IV)。第四次报告承认,完全的资本账户自由化可能并不总是适当的,承认新的限制有时甚至可以在以前已经自由化的国家发挥有益的作用,并详细说明了一套具体情况,在这些情况下,部署新的限制可以作为应对大规模资本流动的临时措施。本文记录了实证研究的重要作用,无论是专业人士还是基金组织自己的工作人员,在支持第四部分的前两个组成部分方面发挥了重要作用。然而,它认为,在第四部分的第三个组成部分方面缺乏实证支持:在哪些条件下部署临时资本账户限制可能是可取的。第四条款规定的条件在很大程度上限制了适当使用限制措施的情况范围,这些条件并没有得到经验证据或最近的经验的充分证明,最好的理解是该机构在第四条款之前对使用限制措施的敌意的残余。
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引用次数: 2
Climate-Proofing the Global Financial Safety Net 抵御气候变化的全球金融安全网
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.1515/jgd-2020-0085
Ulrich Volz
Abstract Although climate change poses a serious threat to macrofinancial stability and economic development, the global financial safety has so far failed to sufficiently address this challenge. This article reviews the extent to which the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has started to integrate climate change in its analytical and operational frameworks, showing significant shortcomings in addressing the risks emanating from climate change. Regional financing arrangements (RFAs) have to date not engaged or only very little in addressing climate-related risks. Against this backdrop, this article argues that the IMF and also RFAs need to climate-proof their policies and frameworks and puts forward eight recommendations: (i) mainstream systematic and transparent assessments of climate-related financial risks in all operations; (ii) introduce consistent, systematic, and universal appraisal and treatment of physical and transition risks in surveillance and monitoring for all countries; (iii) ensure that all policy recommendations are aligned with the Paris climate goals; (iv) advance disclosure of climate-related financial risks and promote sustainable finance and investment practices; (v) support member countries in mainstreaming climate risk analysis in public financial management; (vi) support climate-vulnerable countries in dealing with debt sustainability problems; (vii) develop lending instruments for climate emergency financing; and (viii) in the case of the IMF, explore options to use SDRs to support climate-vulnerable countries.
摘要尽管气候变化对宏观金融稳定和经济发展构成严重威胁,但全球金融安全迄今未能充分应对这一挑战。本文回顾了国际货币基金组织(货币基金组织)在多大程度上开始将气候变化纳入其分析和业务框架,显示出在应对气候变化带来的风险方面存在重大缺陷。迄今为止,区域融资安排尚未参与或仅很少参与应对气候相关风险。在此背景下,本文认为,国际货币基金组织和区域金融机构需要对其政策和框架进行气候验证,并提出了八项建议:(i)将对气候相关金融风险的系统和透明评估纳入所有业务的主流;(ii)在所有国家的监督和监测中,对身体风险和过渡风险进行一致、系统和普遍的评估和处理;(iii)确保所有政策建议与巴黎气候目标保持一致;四提前披露与气候有关的金融风险,促进可持续的金融和投资做法;(v) 支持成员国将气候风险分析纳入公共财政管理的主流;(vi)支持易受气候影响的国家处理债务可持续性问题;七制定气候紧急融资的贷款工具;以及(viii)就国际货币基金组织而言,探讨使用特别提款权支持气候脆弱国家的备选方案。
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引用次数: 5
No One Left Behind? Assessing the Global Financial Safety Net Performance During COVID-19 没有人掉队?新冠肺炎期间全球金融安全网绩效评估
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.1515/jgd-2021-0033
Laurissa Mühlich, B. Fritz, William Kring
Abstract The global financial safety net (GFSN) has become increasingly voluminous and complex. The ever-increasing capacity for crisis prevention and liquidity support of emergency financing institutions and arrangements at the bilateral, regional, and global level sums up to a total lending capacity of at least US$ 3.5 trillion (Mühlich, L., B. Fritz, W. N. Kring, and K. P. Gallagher. 2020. The Global Financial Safety Net Tracker: Lessons for the COVID-19 Crisis from a New Interactive Dataset. GEGI Policy Brief 10. Boston: Global Development Policy Center. Also available at:www.bu.edu/gdp/files/2020/04/GEGI-GDP_PolicyBrief_FInal.pdf). This represents a more than tenfold increase to available short-term liquidity compared to before the global financial crisis of 2008/09. Yet despite this tremendous increase in resources, the GFSN remains scarcely utilized throughout the COVID-19 crisis. This article develops a framework, that builds upon concepts in economics and international political economy, to analyze GFSN inefficiencies and to evaluate the utilization of the GFSN. Combining balance of payments models with the concept of regime complexity, we analyze and compare patterns of GFSN utilization in response to COVID-19 with past usage. We ask if the current GFSN is adequately built to efficiently respond to such a crisis. We are especially interested in examining the role that the six existing RFAs between EMDEs play in the GFSN.
摘要全球金融安全网(GFSN)已经变得越来越庞大和复杂。双边、区域和全球层面的紧急融资机构和安排的危机预防和流动性支持能力不断增强,总贷款能力至少达到3.5万亿美元(Mühlich,L.,B.Fritz,W.N.Kring和K.P.Gallagher,2020)。全球金融安全网追踪:新的交互式数据集给新冠肺炎危机带来的教训。GEGI政策简报10。波士顿:全球发展政策中心。另请访问:www.bu.edu/gdp/files/202/04/GEGI-gdp_PolicyBrief_FInal.pdf)。这意味着与2008/09年全球金融危机前相比,可用短期流动性增加了十倍多。然而,尽管资源大幅增加,但在整个新冠肺炎危机期间,GFSN几乎没有得到利用。本文基于经济学和国际政治经济学的概念,开发了一个框架来分析GFSN的低效率并评估GFSN的利用率。将国际收支模型与制度复杂性的概念相结合,我们分析并比较了应对新冠肺炎的GFSN使用模式与过去的使用模式。我们询问目前的GFSN是否足以有效应对此类危机。我们特别感兴趣的是研究EMDE之间的六个现有RFA在GFSN中所起的作用。
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引用次数: 0
“Keep the Receipts:” The Political Economy of IMF Austerity During and After the Crisis Years of 2009 and 2020 “保留收入:”2009年和2020年危机期间和之后国际货币基金组织紧缩政策的政治经济学
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.1515/jgd-2021-0014
Rebecca Ray, K. Gallagher, William Kring
Abstract In 2009, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reformed its lending arrangements and conditionality. Thereafter, it has pursued “parsimony,” emphasizing headline fiscal adjustments rather than detailed budgetary changes. This paper analyzes the extent to which these reforms have resulted in changes to the overall austerity required by IMF agreements. We create a new variable measuring the level of fiscal consolidation required in each IMF program from 2001 through 2021 the IMF Fiscal Adjustment Indicator (IMF FAI). We explore whether IMF austerity eased after the financial crisis and the later COVID-19 pandemic. We also estimate the economic and political determinants that help explain varying levels of IMF austerity across IMF programs during this period. We find that IMF conditions were less austere for the years of 2009 and 2020, but quickly returned to their previous levels, echoing the IMF’s advice to “keep the receipts” during crises. However, these temporary relaxations were not statistically significant, pointing to overarching continuity. We find that countries that were granted relatively more lenient conditionality were found to be those with closer relations with major shareholders of the IMF: Western Europe and the United States. In contrast, countries with close diplomatic relations with China face higher IMF austerity.
摘要2009年,国际货币基金组织(IMF)对其贷款安排和条件进行了改革。此后,它一直追求“节俭”,强调整体财政调整,而不是详细的预算变化。本文分析了这些改革在多大程度上改变了国际货币基金组织协议所要求的总体紧缩政策。我们创建了一个新的变量,衡量2001年至2021年国际货币基金组织每个项目所需的财政整合水平,即国际货币基金会财政调整指标(IMF FAI)。我们探讨国际货币基金组织的紧缩政策在金融危机和后来的新冠肺炎大流行后是否有所缓解。我们还估计了经济和政治决定因素,这些决定因素有助于解释这一时期国际货币基金组织各项目紧缩程度的不同。我们发现,2009年和2020年,国际货币基金组织的情况没有那么严峻,但很快就恢复到了以前的水平,这与国际货币基金会在危机期间“保持收入”的建议相呼应。然而,这些暂时的放松在统计上并不显著,表明总体上是连续的。我们发现,被给予相对宽松条件的国家是那些与国际货币基金组织主要股东关系更密切的国家:西欧和美国。相比之下,与中国有密切外交关系的国家面临着国际货币基金组织更高的紧缩政策。
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引用次数: 1
Managing Capital Flows: Theoretical Advances and IMF Policy Frameworks 资本流动管理:理论进展与IMF政策框架
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-05-02 DOI: 10.1515/jgd-2021-0031
Anton Korinek
Abstract We analyze recent theoretical advances in the area of capital flow management and compare them with the IMF’s policy frameworks in the area, as laid out in the IMF’s Institutional View and related documents. Although the Institutional View represented an important leap forward, we discuss several tensions with the academic literature. We also emphasize the important role that the IMF guidance could play in building a better set of policy instruments to deal with volatile capital flows. More broadly, individual countries need sufficient policy space to pursue their individual welfare objectives. Finally, we propose how to strengthen the IMF’s analytical framework for international spillovers.
我们分析了资本流动管理领域的最新理论进展,并将其与IMF在该领域的政策框架进行了比较,这些政策框架在IMF的《制度观点》和相关文件中有所阐述。虽然制度观代表了一个重要的飞跃,但我们讨论了与学术文献的几个紧张关系。我们还强调,国际货币基金组织的指导意见在建立一套更好的政策工具以应对资本流动波动方面可以发挥重要作用。更广泛地说,各个国家需要足够的政策空间来追求各自的福利目标。最后,我们提出了加强国际货币基金组织国际溢出效应分析框架的建议。
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引用次数: 1
Poverty, Inequality, and the International Monetary Fund: How Austerity Hurts the Poor and Widens Inequality 贫困、不平等与国际货币基金组织:紧缩政策如何伤害穷人并扩大不平等
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-12-08 DOI: 10.1515/jgd-2021-0018
Thomas Stubbs, Alexander E. Kentikelenis, Rebecca Ray, K. Gallagher
Abstract Among the drivers of socio-economic development, this article focuses on an important yet insufficiently understood international-level determinant: the spread of austerity policies to the developing world by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In offering loans to developing countries in exchange for policy reforms, the IMF typically sets the fiscal parameters within which development occurs. Using an original dataset of IMF-mandated austerity targets, we examine how policy reforms prescribed in IMF programs affect inequality and poverty. Our empirical analyses span a panel of up to 79 countries for the period 2002–2018. Using instrumentation techniques, we control for the possibility that these relationships are driven by the IMF imposing harsher austerity measures precisely in countries with more problematic economies. Our findings show that stricter austerity is associated with greater income inequality for up to two years, and that this effect is driven by concentrating income to the top 10% of earners while all other deciles lose out. We also find that stricter austerity is associated with higher poverty headcounts and poverty gaps. Taken together, our findings suggest that the IMF neglects the multiple ways its own policy advice contributed to social inequity in the developing world.
摘要在社会经济发展的驱动因素中,本文重点关注一个重要但尚未得到充分理解的国际层面的决定因素:国际货币基金组织(IMF)向发展中国家推广紧缩政策。在向发展中国家提供贷款以换取政策改革时,国际货币基金组织通常会设定发展的财政参数。使用国际货币基金组织授权的紧缩目标的原始数据集,我们研究了国际货币基金会项目中规定的政策改革如何影响不平等和贫困。我们的实证分析涵盖了2002年至2018年期间多达79个国家的小组。使用工具技术,我们可以控制这些关系是由国际货币基金组织在经济问题更严重的国家实施更严厉的紧缩措施所驱动的可能性。我们的研究结果表明,在长达两年的时间里,更严格的紧缩政策与更大的收入不平等有关,而这种影响是由将收入集中在收入最高的10%的人身上而导致的,而所有其他十分之一的人都会输。我们还发现,更严格的紧缩政策与更高的贫困人口和贫困差距有关。总之,我们的研究结果表明,国际货币基金组织忽视了其政策建议在多种方面导致发展中国家的社会不平等。
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引用次数: 4
Policy Space for Building Production Capabilities in the Pharmaceuticals Sector in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: Evidence from Bangladesh 低收入和中等收入国家制药部门建设生产能力的政策空间:来自孟加拉国的证据
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.1515/jgd-2021-0009
Mustafiz Rahman, V. Wirtz, W. Kaplan, R. Thrasher, K. Gallagher
Abstract Over the past four decades Bangladesh has built enough domestic productive capacity in the pharmaceuticals and related industries to generate manufacturing capacity and employment to provide access to medicines in the country and to become a modest exporter of medicines as well. This paper traces the role played by government policy in fostering Bangladesh’s burgeoning pharmaceuticals sector and then examines the extent to which such policies would have been permissible under World Trade Organization (WTO) rules and the rules of recent trade and investment treaties. Bangladesh has not had to adhere to such rules given its status as a Least Developed Country (LDC) but will face those rules as it may graduate from LDC status in the coming years. We find that a significant amount of Bangladesh’s policies would not have been permitted under the WTO, and even more policy space would be constrained under other regional and bilateral trade and investment treaties. These findings reveal that Bangladesh will face a series of challenges as it graduates from LDC status in its efforts to build its domestic pharmaceutical industry moving forward. Our findings also pinpoint challenges for current WTO and other trade and investment treaty members who now seek to build domestic productive capacity in this sector in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.
摘要在过去四十年中,孟加拉国在制药和相关行业建立了足够的国内生产能力,以创造制造能力和就业机会,为该国提供药品,并成为一个适度的药品出口国。本文追溯了政府政策在促进孟加拉国蓬勃发展的制药行业中所发挥的作用,然后考察了根据世界贸易组织(WTO)规则以及最近的贸易和投资条约规则,这些政策在多大程度上是允许的。鉴于孟加拉国是最不发达国家,它不必遵守这些规则,但由于它可能在未来几年脱离最不发达国的地位,它将面临这些规则。我们发现,根据世贸组织,孟加拉国的大量政策将不被允许,根据其他区域和双边贸易和投资条约,甚至更多的政策空间将受到限制。这些发现表明,孟加拉国将面临一系列挑战,因为它将从最不发达国家地位毕业,努力建设其国内制药行业。我们的调查结果还指出了当前世贸组织和其他贸易和投资条约成员国面临的挑战,这些成员国在新冠肺炎大流行后正在寻求建立该部门的国内生产能力。
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引用次数: 1
Emerging Markets Interest Rates, International Reserves and Net Foreign Assets 新兴市场利率、国际储备和净外国资产
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.1515/jgd-2020-0079
Joseph Bitar, Martin Boileau
Abstract In the context of a managed float regime, we adopt the portfolio balance view to show the effects of the net foreign assets of an economy and its gross international reserves level on interest rate differentials. We argue that the interest rate differential can be explained by three components, where the components are the expected depreciation of the domestic currency, a default risk premium, and a portfolio balance premium. Our theoretical analysis suggests that the interest differential is a convex function of the level of gross international reserves. In particular, the differential and gross reserves are inversely related at low levels of reserves, but positively at higher levels. We evaluate our framework for the case of Lebanon. We find that the differential is inversely related to both net foreign assets and gross international reserves. These findings are then confirmed with data from Indonesia and Mexico.
摘要在有管理的浮动汇率制度的背景下,我们采用投资组合平衡的观点来显示一个经济体的净外国资产及其总国际储备水平对利差的影响。我们认为,利率差异可以用三个组成部分来解释,其中组成部分是本币的预期贬值,违约风险溢价和投资组合余额溢价。我们的理论分析表明,利差是国际储备总额水平的凸函数。特别是,差额和总储备在储备水平低时呈负相关,而在储备水平高时呈正相关。我们根据黎巴嫩的情况评估我们的框架。我们发现差额与净外国资产和国际储备总额呈负相关。这些发现随后被来自印度尼西亚和墨西哥的数据所证实。
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引用次数: 0
The Real Exchange Rate Policy Trilemma in Surplus-Labor Developing Economies 劳动力过剩发展中经济体的实际汇率政策三难困境
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.1515/jgd-2021-0007
A. Razmi
Abstract This paper discusses some of the intertemporal political economy issues that arise in the pursuit of real undervaluation to achieve more rapid development. Policy makers face a trade-off between achieving a capital stock target in a given amount of time on the one hand and boosting real wages in the short-run, on the other. This generates a trilemma whereby development-focused policy makers can choose to pursue two out of three desirables: (1) use the real exchange rate as an instrument of development policy, (2) meet the development target within a politically relevant time frame, and (3) maintain political stability. The optimal path under a policy with “unambitious” aims will resemble the typical electoral business cycle trajectory whereby policy makers maintain real overvaluation over much of the cycle. By contrast, achieving ambitious capital stock/development targets within a relatively short time requires the potentially unpopular strategy of choosing a highly undervalued real exchange rate at the beginning of the planning horizon and gradually increasing the degree of undervaluation thereafter as wages rise. Relevant structural differences between countries imply different initial levels of real undervaluation, distinct optimal trajectories over time, and hence, varying degrees of trade-offs.
摘要本文讨论了一些跨期政治经济学问题,这些问题是在追求真正的低估以实现更快发展的过程中出现的。政策制定者面临着在给定时间内实现资本存量目标和在短期内提高实际工资之间的权衡。这产生了一个三重困境,以发展为重点的政策制定者可以选择追求三种理想中的两种:(1)将实际汇率作为发展政策的工具,(2)在与政治相关的时间框架内实现发展目标,以及(3)保持政治稳定。具有“无野心”目标的政策下的最佳路径将类似于典型的选举商业周期轨迹,即决策者在周期的大部分时间里保持实际的高估值。相比之下,在相对较短的时间内实现雄心勃勃的资本存量/发展目标需要一种潜在的不受欢迎的策略,即在规划期开始时选择高度低估的实际汇率,然后随着工资的上涨逐渐增加低估的程度。国家之间的相关结构差异意味着实际低估的初始水平不同,随着时间的推移有不同的最佳轨迹,因此有不同程度的权衡。
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引用次数: 1
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Journal of Globalization and Development
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