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Governing Sovereign Debt Restructuring Through Regulatory Standards 通过监管标准治理主权债务重组
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2015-12-01 DOI: 10.1515/jgd-2015-0024
Skylar J. Brooks, D. Lombardi
Abstract In recent years, a number of costly and destabilizing sovereign debt crises – from Argentina and Greece to Ukraine – have served as a forceful reminder that the international community lacks an agreed-upon framework for resolving debt crises and, when necessary, restructuring sovereign debt in a timely, orderly, and equitable manner. To help address this apparent governance gap, the paper argues that there is an important but underutilized role for the Financial Stability Board (FSB) in governing sovereign debt restructuring. More specifically, in a governance domain that is relatively fragmented between uncoordinated, even sometimes competing, rules and rule-makers, the FSB could serve as the focal institution responsible for overseeing the coordination and further development of soft law regulatory standards for sovereign debt restructuring. The reasons for FSB governance in this domain are simple and compelling, relating to both the nature of the debt restructuring regime and its evolution to date, as well as the specific institutional features of the FSB and the core tasks it performs. Although there remains room for treaty-based organizations like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and United Nations (UN) to develop a hard law approach to sovereign debt restructuring, the FSB, we argue, is best positioned to strengthen and oversee the existing soft law approach, which currently prevails as the modus operandi of the present debt restructuring framework.
近年来,一系列代价高昂且不稳定的主权债务危机——从阿根廷、希腊到乌克兰——有力地提醒我们,国际社会缺乏一个商定的框架来解决债务危机,并在必要时及时、有序和公平地重组主权债务。为了帮助解决这一明显的治理差距,本文认为金融稳定委员会(FSB)在治理主权债务重组方面发挥着重要但未得到充分利用的作用。更具体地说,在不协调、甚至有时是相互竞争的规则和规则制定者之间相对分散的治理领域,金融稳定委员会可以作为负责监督主权债务重组软法律监管标准的协调和进一步发展的中心机构。金融稳定理事会在这一领域进行治理的原因简单而令人信服,既与债务重组机制的性质及其迄今为止的演变有关,也与金融稳定理事会的具体制度特征及其执行的核心任务有关。尽管国际货币基金组织(IMF)和联合国(UN)等以条约为基础的组织仍有发展主权债务重组硬法方法的空间,但我们认为,金融稳定理事会最适合加强和监督现有的软法方法,这是目前债务重组框架的普遍做法。
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引用次数: 4
A No-Tribunal SDRM and the Means of Binding Creditors to the Terms of a Restructuring Plan 无法庭特别提款权机制和约束债权人遵守重组计划条款的手段
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2015-12-01 DOI: 10.1515/jgd-2015-0020
C. Mooney
Abstract This paper addresses two discrete but related and essential attributes of an SDRM. It first considers an SDRM that would provide a procedure for proposing and adopting a restructuring plan for a sovereign debtor’s debt which would not involve any tribunal or administrator (a No-Tribunal SDRM). The paper examines the merits and feasibility of a No-Tribunal SDRM. In particular, the No-Tribunal SDRM proposed here would undertake the restructuring as if the sovereign debtor and its creditors were subject to the International Capital Markets Association Model Collective Action Clause regime. Second, this paper addresses the means by which a sovereign debt restructuring plan may become legally binding on a sovereign debtor’s creditors. It focuses on the various legal structures that could be employed to cause a sovereign debtor’s creditors to be legally bound by a restructuring plan – the implementation of a restructuring plan under an SDRM. This matter of binding creditors is an area of legal analysis that is somewhat underdeveloped and neglected in the literature. The paper addresses on implementation of a restructuring plan under a statutory approach – an SDRM imposed by rule of law. The manner of implementing an SDRM may be significant in several contexts, including the acceptability of the SDRM to political actors and market participants, the effectiveness of the operation of an SDRM, and the costs of devising and adopting an SDRM.
本文讨论了SDRM的两个离散但相关的基本属性。它首先考虑一种特别提款权机制,该机制将为提出和通过一项不涉及任何法庭或管理人的主权债务人债务重组计划提供一种程序(无法庭特别提款权机制)。本文探讨了一个无仲裁庭的特别提款权机制的优点和可行性。特别是,这里提出的无法庭特别提款权机制将进行重组,就好像主权债务人及其债权人受国际资本市场协会示范集体行动条款制度的约束一样。其次,本文讨论了主权债务重组计划可能对主权债务人的债权人具有法律约束力的手段。它侧重于可以用来使主权债务人的债权人受到重组计划的法律约束的各种法律结构- -在特别提款权机制下实施重组计划。约束债权人的问题是法律分析的一个领域,在文献中有些欠发达和被忽视。该文件涉及在法定方式下实施重组计划,即依法实施的特别提款权机制。实施特别提款权机制的方式可能在以下几个方面具有重要意义,包括政治行为者和市场参与者对特别提款权机制的接受程度、特别提款权机制运作的有效性以及设计和采用特别提款权机制的成本。
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引用次数: 3
Contingent Convertible Bonds for Sovereign Debt Risk Management 主权债务风险管理的或有可转换债券
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2015-11-01 DOI: 10.1515/jgd-2017-0011
A. Consiglio, S. Zenios
Abstract We consider convertible bonds that contractually stipulate payment standstill, contingent on a market indicator of a sovereign’s credit worthiness breaching a distress threshold. This financial innovation limits ex ante the likelihood of debt crises and imposes ex post risk sharing between creditors and the debtor. Drawing from literature on contingent contracts, neglected risks, and bank CoCo, we extend prevailing arguments in favor of sovereign CoCo (S-CoCo). We discuss issues relating to their design: which market trigger, market discipline and sovereign incentives, and errors of false alarms or missed crises, and provide supporting evidence with eurozone data and a simple simulation on the use of S-CoCo. We develop a risk management model using these instruments to trade off the expected cost for sovereign financing over a long horizon, with tail risk. The model shows how contingent bonds can improve a country’s debt risk profile. Using Greece as a case study the model illustrates improvements in expected cost vs. tail risk for the country when using contingent debt.
我们考虑可转换债券,合同规定支付暂停,取决于主权信用价值突破困境阈值的市场指标。这种金融创新限制了债务危机发生的可能性,并在事后要求债权人和债务人分担风险。根据有关或有合同、被忽视风险和银行CoCo的文献,我们扩展了支持主权CoCo (S-CoCo)的主流论点。我们讨论了与它们的设计相关的问题:哪个市场触发、市场纪律和主权激励、虚假警报或错过危机的错误,并提供了欧元区数据和S-CoCo使用的简单模拟的支持证据。我们开发了一个风险管理模型,利用这些工具来权衡长期主权融资的预期成本和尾部风险。该模型显示了或有债券如何改善一个国家的债务风险状况。以希腊为例,该模型说明了在使用或有债务时,该国预期成本与尾部风险的改善。
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引用次数: 16
Inequality and Fiscal Redistribution in Middle Income Countries: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Indonesia, Mexico, Peru and South Africa 中等收入国家的不平等与财政再分配:巴西、智利、哥伦比亚、印度尼西亚、墨西哥、秘鲁和南非
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2015-08-01 DOI: 10.1515/jgd-2016-0015
N. Lustig
Abstract This paper examines the redistributive impact of fiscal policy for Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Indonesia, Mexico, Peru and South Africa using comparable fiscal incidence analysis with data from around 2010. The largest redistributive effect is in South Africa and the smallest in Indonesia. Success in fiscal redistribution is driven primarily by redistributive effort (share of social spending to GDP in each country) and the extent to which transfers/subsidies are targeted to the poor and direct taxes targeted to the rich. While fiscal policy always reduces inequality, this is not the case with poverty. When pensions are not considered a transfer, fiscal policy increases poverty in Brazil (over and above market income poverty) due to high consumption taxes on basic goods. Total spending on education is pro-poor except for Indonesia, where it is neutral in absolute terms. Health spending is pro-poor in Brazil, Chile and South Africa, roughly neutral in absolute terms in Mexico, and not pro-poor in Indonesia and Peru.
本文利用2010年前后的可比财政发生率分析,考察了巴西、智利、哥伦比亚、印度尼西亚、墨西哥、秘鲁和南非财政政策对再分配的影响。再分配效应最大的是南非,最小的是印度尼西亚。财政再分配的成功主要取决于再分配的努力(每个国家的社会支出占国内生产总值的份额)以及转移/补贴针对穷人和直接税针对富人的程度。虽然财政政策总是能减少不平等,但对于贫困却并非如此。当养老金不被视为转移支付时,由于对基本商品征收高额消费税,财政政策增加了巴西的贫困(超过市场收入贫困)。在教育上的总支出是有利于穷人的,除了印度尼西亚,它的绝对值是中性的。巴西、智利和南非的医疗支出有利于穷人,墨西哥的医疗支出绝对值大致为中性,而印度尼西亚和秘鲁的医疗支出则不利于穷人。
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引用次数: 66
Sovereign Debt Restructuring: A Model-Law Approach 主权债务重组:模型法方法
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2015-07-30 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2634653
S. Schwarcz
Abstract Unlike individuals and corporations, countries indebted beyond their ability to pay cannot use bankruptcy laws to restructure unsustainable debt. The United Nations and the International Monetary Fund have attempted to propose treaties to enable that debt restructuring, but the political difficulties of reaching a worldwide consensus have stymied their efforts. This article argues that a model-law approach to restructuring unsustainable sovereign debt should be feasible and effective because the vast majority of sovereign debt contracts are governed by the laws of either the debtor-state or two other jurisdictions. Those jurisdictions individually could enact a model law to give struggling nations a real prospect of equitably restructuring their debt to sustainable levels. By enabling such debt restructuring, that enactment would also help to foster the norms required to facilitate the development of international treaties.
与个人和公司不同,负债超过支付能力的国家不能使用破产法来重组不可持续的债务。联合国和国际货币基金组织曾试图提出条约,以便进行债务重组,但达成全球协商一致意见的政治困难阻碍了它们的努力。本文认为,重组不可持续主权债务的示范法方法应该是可行和有效的,因为绝大多数主权债务合同受债务国或其他两个司法管辖区的法律管辖。这些司法管辖区可以单独颁布一项示范法,让陷入困境的国家真正有希望公平地将债务重组至可持续水平。通过使这种债务重组成为可能,这项法令也将有助于促进制定国际条约所需的规范。
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引用次数: 12
Experimental and Non-Experimental Methods in Development Economics: A Porous Dialectic 发展经济学中的实验与非实验方法:一个多孔的辩证法
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2015-06-01 DOI: 10.1515/jgd-2014-0005
Rajeev Dehejia
Abstract This paper surveys six widely-used non-experimental methods for estimating treatment effects (instrumental variables, regression discontinuity, direct matching, propensity score matching, linear regression and non-parametric methods, and difference-in-differences), and assesses their internal and external validity relative both to each other and to randomized controlled trials. While randomized controlled trials can achieve the highest degree of internal validity when cleanly implemented in the field, the availability of large, nationally representative data sets offers the opportunity for a high degree of external validity using non-experimental methods. We argue that each method has merits in some context and they are complements rather than substitutes.
摘要:本文综述了常用的6种治疗效果估计的非实验方法(工具变量法、回归不连续法、直接匹配法、倾向评分匹配法、线性回归和非参数法、差中差法),并评估了它们之间以及相对于随机对照试验的内部效度和外部效度。虽然随机对照试验在实地实施时可以达到最高程度的内部效度,但具有全国代表性的大型数据集的可用性为使用非实验方法获得高度的外部效度提供了机会。我们认为每种方法在某些情况下都有优点,它们是互补而不是替代。
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引用次数: 17
Ancillary Studies of Experiments: Opportunities and Challenges 实验辅助研究:机遇与挑战
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2015-06-01 DOI: 10.1515/jgd-2014-0010
Kate A. Baldwin, Rikhil R Bhavnani
Abstract “Ancillary studies of experiments” are a technique whereby researchers use an experiment conducted by others to recover causal estimates of a randomized intervention on new outcomes. The method requires pairing randomized treatments the researchers did not oversee with data on outcomes that were not the focus of the original experiment. Since ancillary studies rely on interventions that have already been undertaken, oftentimes by governments, they can provide a low-cost method with which to identify effects on a wide variety of outcomes. We define this technique, identify the small but growing universe of papers that employ ancillary studies of experiments in political science and economics, and assess the benefits and limitations of the method.
“辅助实验研究”是一种研究人员利用他人进行的实验来恢复随机干预对新结果的因果估计的技术。这种方法需要将研究人员没有监督的随机治疗方法与原始实验没有关注的结果数据配对。由于辅助研究依赖于政府已经采取的干预措施,因此它们可以提供一种低成本的方法,以确定对各种结果的影响。我们定义了这种技术,确定了使用政治学和经济学实验辅助研究的小而不断增长的论文领域,并评估了该方法的优点和局限性。
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引用次数: 6
What Can Experiments Tell Us About How to Improve Government Performance? 关于如何提高政府绩效,实验能告诉我们什么?
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2015-06-01 DOI: 10.1515/jgd-2014-0011
Rachel M. Gisselquist, M. Niño-Zarazúa
Abstract In recent years, experimental methods have been both highly celebrated, and roundly criticized, as a means of addressing core questions in the social sciences. They have received particular attention in the analysis of development interventions. This paper focuses on two key questions: (1) what have been the main contributions of RCTs to the study of government performance? and (2) what could be the contributions, and relatedly the limits? It draws inter alia on a new systematic review of experimental and quasi-experimental studies on governance to consider both the contributions and limits of RCTs in the extant literature. A final section introduces the studies included in this symposium in light of this discussion. Collectively, the studies push beyond polarized debates over experimental methods towards a new middle ground, considering both how experimental work can better address identified weaknesses and how experimental and non-experimental techniques can be combined most fruitfully.
近年来,实验方法作为解决社会科学核心问题的一种手段,既受到高度赞扬,也受到严厉批评。它们在分析发展干预措施方面受到特别注意。本文主要关注两个关键问题:(1)随机对照试验对政府绩效研究的主要贡献是什么?(2)贡献和相关限制是什么?它特别借鉴了一项关于治理的实验和准实验研究的新系统综述,以考虑现有文献中随机对照试验的贡献和局限性。最后一节介绍了本次研讨会的研究成果。总的来说,这些研究超越了关于实验方法的两极分化辩论,走向了一个新的中间立场,考虑了实验工作如何更好地解决已确定的弱点,以及如何将实验和非实验技术最有效地结合起来。
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引用次数: 13
A Graphical Approximation to Generalization: Definitions and Diagrams 概括性的图形近似:定义和图表
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2015-06-01 DOI: 10.1515/jgd-2014-0013
Fernando Martel García, Léonard Wantchékon
Abstract The fundamental problem of external validity is not to generalize from one experiment, so much as to experimentally test generalizable theories. That is, theories that explain the systematic variation of causal effects across contexts. Here we show how the graphical language of causal diagrams can be used in this endeavour. Specifically we show how generalization is a causal problem, how a causal approach is more robust than a purely predictive one, and how causal diagrams can be adapted to convey partial parametric information about interactions.
外部有效性的根本问题不是从一个实验中得出结论,而是通过实验检验可推广的理论。也就是说,解释因果效应在不同背景下系统性变化的理论。在这里,我们展示了因果图的图形语言如何在这一努力中使用。具体来说,我们展示了泛化如何成为一个因果问题,因果方法如何比纯粹的预测方法更健壮,以及因果图如何可以用于传达有关交互的部分参数信息。
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引用次数: 2
Reflections on the Ethics of Social Experimentation 对社会实验伦理的思考
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2015-06-01 DOI: 10.1515/JGD-2014-0016
M. Humphreys
Abstract Social scientists are increasingly engaging in experimental research projects of importance for public policy in developing areas. While this research holds the possibility of producing major social benefits, it may also involve manipulating populations, often without consent, sometimes with potentially adverse effects, and often in settings with obvious power differentials between researcher and subject. Such research is currently conducted with few clear ethical guidelines. In this paper I discuss research ethics as currently understood in this field, highlighting the limitations of standard procedures and the need for the construction of appropriate ethics, focusing on the problems of determining responsibility for interventions and assessing appropriate forms of consent.
社会科学家越来越多地参与到对发展中地区公共政策具有重要意义的实验研究项目中。虽然这项研究有可能产生重大的社会效益,但它也可能涉及操纵人群,往往未经同意,有时会产生潜在的不利影响,而且往往是在研究人员和受试者之间存在明显权力差异的情况下。目前进行此类研究时,几乎没有明确的伦理准则。在本文中,我讨论了目前在该领域所理解的研究伦理,强调了标准程序的局限性和构建适当伦理的必要性,重点讨论了确定干预责任和评估适当的同意形式的问题。
{"title":"Reflections on the Ethics of Social Experimentation","authors":"M. Humphreys","doi":"10.1515/JGD-2014-0016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/JGD-2014-0016","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Social scientists are increasingly engaging in experimental research projects of importance for public policy in developing areas. While this research holds the possibility of producing major social benefits, it may also involve manipulating populations, often without consent, sometimes with potentially adverse effects, and often in settings with obvious power differentials between researcher and subject. Such research is currently conducted with few clear ethical guidelines. In this paper I discuss research ethics as currently understood in this field, highlighting the limitations of standard procedures and the need for the construction of appropriate ethics, focusing on the problems of determining responsibility for interventions and assessing appropriate forms of consent.","PeriodicalId":38929,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Globalization and Development","volume":"6 1","pages":"112 - 87"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1515/JGD-2014-0016","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66939811","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 39
期刊
Journal of Globalization and Development
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