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In Search of a Factor Model for Optionable Stocks 可选股票的因子模型研究
Pub Date : 2020-04-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3487947
Turan G. Bali, Scott Murray
We propose the first factor model that explains cross-sectional variation in optionable stock returns. Our model includes new factors based on option-implied volatility minus realized volatility, the call minus put implied volatility spread, and the difference between changes in call and put implied volatilities, along with the market factor. The model outperforms previously-proposed factor models at explaining the performance of portfolios of optionable stocks formed by sorting on other option-based predictors, as well as other well-known stock return predictors. Our model provides a benchmark for assessing whether portfolios of optionable stocks generate returns that are not explained by previously-documented phenomena.
我们提出了第一个解释可选股票收益横截面变化的因子模型。我们的模型包括基于期权隐含波动率减去已实现波动率、看涨期权减去看跌期权隐含波动率价差、看涨期权和看跌期权隐含波动率变化之差的新因素,以及市场因素。该模型在解释可选股票组合的表现方面优于先前提出的因子模型,该组合是通过对其他基于期权的预测因子进行排序而形成的,以及其他知名的股票回报预测因子。我们的模型提供了一个基准,用于评估可选股票的投资组合是否产生了以前记录的现象无法解释的回报。
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引用次数: 4
Comparing Investor Networks in Different Market Conditions 比较不同市场条件下的投资者网络
Pub Date : 2020-04-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3575664
Viet Hung Le
We investigate differences in the structures of investor stock trading networks prior to and during the global financial crisis of 2007-2008. We find that the population of investor networks for 45 securities have different structures between pre-crisis and crisis periods with statistical significance. Moreover, we observe the herding tendency and high synchronization in trade timing during the crisis, which is supported by the literature. These findings can be used to develop early-warning signals for crises in stock markets.
我们研究了2007-2008年全球金融危机之前和期间投资者股票交易网络结构的差异。我们发现45只证券的投资者网络人口在危机前和危机期间具有不同的结构,且具有统计学意义。此外,我们观察到危机期间交易时机的羊群倾向和高度同步性,这得到了文献的支持。这些发现可以用来开发股票市场危机的预警信号。
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引用次数: 1
Did Bitcoin Act as An Antidote to the Chinese Equity Market and Booster to Altcoins during the Novel Coronavirus Outbreak? 在新型冠状病毒爆发期间,比特币是否成为中国股市的解药和山寨币的助推器?
Pub Date : 2020-02-26 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3544794
R. K. Jana, Debojyoti Das
In this study, we examine the resilience of Bitcoin (BTC) to hedge Chinese aggregate and sectoral equity markets and the returns spillover to Altcoins onset the
在本研究中,我们考察了比特币(BTC)对冲中国总体和行业股票市场的弹性,以及对山寨币的回报溢出效应
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引用次数: 20
Accuracy of European Stock Target Prices 欧洲股票目标价格的准确性
Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3644963
Joana Almeida, R. M. Gaspar
Equity studies are conducted by professionals, who also provide buy/hold/sell recommendations to investors. Nowadays, target prices determined by financial analysts are publicly available to investors, who may decide to use them for investment purposes. Studying the accuracy of such analysts’ forecasts is, thus, of paramount importance. Based upon empirical data on 50 of the biggest (larger capitalisation) European stocks over a 15-year period, from 2004 to 2019, and using a panel data approach, this is the first study looking at overall accuracy in European stock markets. We find that Bloomberg’s 12-month consensus target prices have no predictive power over future market prices. Our panel results are robust to company fixed effects and subperiod analysis. These results are in line with the (mostly US-based) evidence in the literature. Extending common practice, we perform a comparative accuracy analysis, comparing the accuracy of target prices with that of simple capitalisations of current prices. It turns out target prices are not better at forecasting than simple capitalisations. When considering individual regressions, accuracy is still very low, but it varies considerably across stocks. By also analysing the relationship between both measures—target prices and capitalised prices—we find evidence that, for some stocks, capitalised prices partially explain how target prices are determined.
股票研究由专业人士进行,他们还向投资者提供买入/持有/卖出的建议。如今,金融分析师确定的目标价格对投资者是公开的,投资者可能决定将其用于投资目的。因此,研究这些分析师预测的准确性至关重要。基于2004年至2019年15年间50只欧洲最大(市值较大)股票的实证数据,并使用面板数据方法,这是首个研究欧洲股市整体准确性的研究。我们发现,彭博12个月的共识目标价对未来市场价格没有预测能力。我们的面板结果对公司固定效应和子周期分析是稳健的。这些结果与文献中的(大部分是基于美国的)证据一致。延伸一般做法,我们进行比较准确度分析,将目标价格的准确度与当前价格的简单资本化的准确度进行比较。事实证明,目标价格在预测方面并不比简单的资本化更好。当考虑单个回归时,准确性仍然很低,但在不同的股票中差异很大。通过分析目标价格和资本化价格这两个指标之间的关系,我们发现证据表明,对于某些股票,资本化价格部分解释了目标价格是如何确定的。
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引用次数: 2
The Accuracy of Various Value Drivers of Price Multiple Method in Determining Equity Price 价格倍数法确定股票价格的各种价值驱动因素的准确性
Pub Date : 2019-11-01 DOI: 10.13106/jafeb.2020.vol7.no1.29
P. Yooyanyong, Issara Suwanragsa, Nopphon Tangjitprom
Stock price multiple is one of the most well-known equity valuation technique used to forecast equity price. It measures by multiplying “the ratio of stock price to a value driver” by a value driver. The value driver can be earning per share (EPS), sales or other financial measurements. The objective of price multiple technique is to evaluate the value of assets and compare how similar assets are priced in the market. Although stock price multiple technique is common in financial filed, studies on the application of the technique in Thailand is still limited. The present study is conducted to serve three major objectives. The first objective is to apply the technique to measure value of firms in banking sector in the Stock Exchange of Thailand. The second objective is to develop composite price multiple index to forecast equity prices. The third objective is to compare valuation accuracy of different value drivers of price multiple (i.e. EPS, Earnings Growth, Earnings Before Interest Taxes Depreciation and Amortization, Sales, Book Value and Composite Index) in forecasting equity prices. Results indicated that EPS is the most accurate value drivers of price multiple used to forecast equity price of firms in baking sector.
股票价格倍数是最著名的股票估值技术之一,用于预测股票价格。它通过将“股价与价值驱动因素之比”乘以价值驱动因素来衡量。价值驱动因素可以是每股收益(EPS)、销售额或其他财务指标。价格倍数技术的目的是评估资产的价值,并比较类似资产在市场上的定价。虽然股票价格倍数技术在金融领域很常见,但对该技术在泰国的应用研究还很有限。本研究的目的主要有三个。第一个目标是应用该技术来衡量泰国证券交易所银行部门的公司价值。第二个目标是建立综合价格多重指数来预测股票价格。第三个目标是比较价格倍数的不同价值驱动因素(即每股收益,收益增长,息税折旧及摊销前收益,销售额,账面价值和综合指数)在预测股票价格时的估值准确性。结果表明,每股收益是预测烘焙行业企业股价的最准确的价值驱动因素。
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引用次数: 2
Dynamic Regime Strategy for Stress Testing and Optimizing Institutional Investor Portfolios 压力测试与优化机构投资者投资组合的动态机制策略
Pub Date : 2019-08-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3438272
T. Mooney, Ravindra Rapaka, Tawanda Vera, Ritabrata Bhattacharyya
Our work aims to develop a stand-alone trading system to construct portfolios that show the benefits of value and momentum style integration and presents the effectiveness of alternative integration methods for long-only absolute return funds, which seeks absolute returns that are not highly correlated to traditional assets such as stocks and bonds. Our approach uses the CRoss Industry Standard Process for Data Mining (CRISP-DM) model to guide the necessary steps, processes, and workflows for executing our project.
我们的工作旨在开发一个独立的交易系统来构建投资组合,以显示价值和动量风格整合的好处,并为多头绝对回报基金展示替代整合方法的有效性,这些基金寻求与股票和债券等传统资产不高度相关的绝对回报。我们的方法使用跨行业数据挖掘标准过程(CRISP-DM)模型来指导执行项目所需的步骤、过程和工作流。
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引用次数: 0
Women and Diversity: Why the Conversation Must Continue in Financial Services 女性与多样性:为什么金融服务业必须继续对话
Pub Date : 2018-08-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3229284
Jill Bisco, Suzanne M. Gradisher, Barry S. Mulholland
The financial advising professions are concerned that not only will there be insufficient talent in the workforce to replace those professionals that will soon retire and to meet the expected growth in advisors over the next decade, but the profession is also lacking in diversity. This paper focuses on The University of Akron’s Women and Diversity Symposium, which is the result of the alignment of industry initiatives to increase the number of women and people of diverse backgrounds in the financial services industry. The secondary goal is to increase the number of undergraduate students choosing financial planning as a degree. Through an analysis of surveys completed by attendees at the symposium, this research has shown that the symposium improved the impression of the financial services industry among those that attended.
金融咨询行业担心,不仅劳动力中没有足够的人才来取代即将退休的专业人士,也无法满足未来十年顾问人数的预期增长,而且该行业还缺乏多样性。本文的重点是阿克伦大学的妇女和多样性研讨会,这是行业倡议一致的结果,以增加金融服务行业中妇女和不同背景的人的数量。第二个目标是增加选择财务规划作为学位的本科生的数量。通过对研讨会参与者完成的调查分析,本研究表明,研讨会改善了与会者对金融服务业的印象。
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引用次数: 1
50대 홀어머니 가장을 위한 인생중심 재무설계 사례연구 (A Case Study of the Life Planning for Single Mothers in Their 50s) (A Case Study of the Life Planning for Single Mothers in Their 50s)
Pub Date : 2018-05-31 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3204160
Sung Soon Kim
Korean Abstract: 본 연구는 인생중심 재무설계라고 불리는 라이프플래닝 상담사례에 대한 내용이다. 실제 재무설계사가 재무설계 프로세스를 준수하며 고객과 상담을 진행하였던 사례이며, 우리 주변에 흔히 볼 수 있는 평범한 한국 가정에 대한 내용을 담았다. 본 사례연구에서는 재무설계 각 분야인 지출관리, 위험(보험)설계, 투자설계, 부동산설계, 은퇴설계 등을 재무설계 6단계 프로세스를 준수하며 진행하였고, 라이프플래닝 기법을 적용하여 고객 인생 전반의 문제를 해결하기 위하여 상담을 진행하였다. 본 사례에서는 중학생 아들을 둔 50대 가장으로서 한부모가정을 이끌어가는 어머니가 겪는 재무관련 문제 뿐 아니라, 청소년 자녀와의 사이에서 생기는 다양한 고민을 라이프플래닝으로 풀어가고자 하는 과정을 포함하였다. 재무설계사는 고객의 가장 중요한 재무적 문제를 노후대비와 자녀학자금 문제로 파악하였고, 이를 효과적으로 해결하기 위한 재무설계안을 제시하였다. 본 연구를 통하여 재무설계 6단계 프로세스 각 단계의 의미와 라이프플래닝을 통하여 고객과 소통하는 모습의 중요성을 다시 한 번 생각해 볼 수 있으며, 해당 경험이 부족하여 갈증을 느끼고 있는 많은 재무설계사들에게 간접적인 경험을 제공하고자 한다. English Abstract: This study presents a case study of Life Planning which is termed life - oriented financial planning. This includes an actual financial planning process via which a financial planner consulted with the customers in a six-step process of financial planning, which reflects the common problems of Korean households. In this case study, cash management, insurance planning, investment planning, real estate planning, and retirement planning, were implemented in accordance with the six steps of financial planning. The consultations were carried out to solve the various problems affecting the clients’ whole lives. The proposed financial plans include the process of solving various troubles that may occur between mothers and their adolescent sons, and the financial problems of mothers in their 50s who lead single parent families from the life planning perspectives. In this case study, the financial planner identified ‘retirement preparation’ and ‘tuition’ as the most important financial issues of the clients, and he proposed financial planning propositions in order to solve them effectively. This study emphasizes the importance of communication with customers and the six- step process in financial planning. It also provides indirect experience for many financial planners who are lacking in any actual experience with Life Planning.
Korean Abstract:本研究是关于被称为“人生中心财务设计”的生活规划咨询事例的内容。实际的财务设计师遵守财务设计程序,与顾客进行商谈的事例,包含了我们周围常见的平凡的韩国家庭的内容。本案例研究中,财务设计各领域的支出管理,危险(保险)设计,投资退出,房地产设计,设计等遵守财务设计6个阶段进程,进行了,life planing技法运用顾客为了解决人生的全部问题进行了咨询。本事例中包括了作为有上初中的儿子的50多岁家长,带领单亲家庭的母亲所经历的财务相关问题,以及通过生活规划来解决与青少年子女之间产生的多样的苦恼的过程。财务设计师把顾客最重要的财务问题归结为养老准备和子女学费问题,并提出了有效解决这一问题的财务设计方案。通过本研究财务设计6阶段进程各阶段的意义和生活规划公司通过与客户沟通的形象的重要性,再可以考虑,有关经验不足,感到渴的许多财务设计师提供间接的经验。English Abstract: This study presents a case study of Life Planning which is termed Life - oriented financial Planning。This includes an actual financial planning process via which a financial planner consulted with the customers ina six-step process of financial planning;which reflects the common problems of Korean households。In this case study, cash management, insurance planning, investment planning, real estate planning, and retirement planning, were implemented In accordance with the six steps of financial planning。The consultations were carried out to solve The various problems affecting The clients ' whole lives。The proposed financial plans include The process of solving various troubles that may occur between mothers and their adolescent sonsand the financial problems of mothers in their 50s who lead single parent families from the life planning perspectives。In this case study, the financial planner identified ' retirement preparation ' and ' tuition ' as the most important financial issues of the clients,and he proposed financial planning propositions in order to solve them effectively。study emphasizes the importance of communication with customers and the six- step process in financial planning。It also provides indirect experience for many financial planners who are lacking in any actual experience with Life Planning。
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引用次数: 0
Building Modular Dividend Discount Models Using a 'Super Annuity Formula' 利用“超级年金公式”构建模块化股利贴现模型
Pub Date : 2018-03-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3643656
T. Crack, Helen Roberts
The dramatic increase in the importance of U.S. dividends since 2001 means that financial analysts may soon demand access to updated dividend discount models (DDMs). To address this need, we introduce a new “super annuity formula” that can be used in the modular construction of multiple-stage level-growth DDMs. We also use the super annuity formula to approximate a three-stage transitional-growth DDM very accurately. We show that these advanced DDMs are relatively robust to the input assumptions. Going forward, every financial analyst should have knowledge of and access to these updated DDMs, so as to capitalize on the growing importance of dividends.
自2001年以来,美国股息的重要性急剧上升,这意味着金融分析师可能很快就会要求使用最新的股息贴现模型(ddm)。为了解决这一需求,我们引入了一个新的“超级年金公式”,可用于多级水平增长ddm的模块化构建。我们也使用超级年金公式来非常准确地近似三阶段过渡增长DDM。我们表明,这些高级ddm对输入假设具有相对的鲁棒性。展望未来,每个金融分析师都应该了解并使用这些最新的ddm,以便充分利用股息日益增长的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
A Study on Influence of Financial Cognition on Personal Financial Planning of Indian Households 印度家庭理财认知对个人理财规划的影响研究
Pub Date : 2017-09-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3040807
M. Mahapatra, Anupam De
The term financial planning has been an area of research interest since few years. Studies have underlined the influence of various cognitive factors in individuals’ financial decisions. The present study is also trying to underline the influence of various cognitive factors in personal financial planning of Indian households. The term financial cognition considered three components namely financial attitude, risk attitude and financial knowledge and raise the concern about the influence of various cognitive factors on individual personal financial planning. Especially in India, being a conservative attitude towards financial decisions, individual households do have higher influence of various cognitive and behavioral aspects in their suboptimal decision towards personal financial planning. The present study is putting forward those aspects of personal financial planning decisions of Indian households. The main objective of the model is to create the bare minimum structure to demonstrate the influence of financial cognition on personal financial planning among Indian households. The study mainly tried to explore the fundamental principle of subjective thinking towards financial decision. The model would represent the influence of financial cognition towards people financial decisions and can be helpful in exploring the financial information process. The study used PLS-SEM to explore PFP process in all the area of financial interest i.e. cash flow management, investment, insurance, retirement, tax and estate planning. The salaried individuals from different sectors are considered as sample for the study. The analysis has been done with 452 responses from Indian households.
财务规划这一术语近年来一直是一个研究领域。研究强调了各种认知因素对个人财务决策的影响。本研究还试图强调各种认知因素对印度家庭个人财务规划的影响。理财认知一词考虑了理财态度、风险态度和理财知识三个组成部分,关注各种认知因素对个人理财规划的影响。特别是在印度,由于对财务决策的态度较为保守,个体家庭在对个人财务规划的次优决策中确实受到了认知和行为各方面的较高影响。本研究提出了印度家庭个人财务规划决策的这些方面。该模型的主要目标是创建最小的结构,以证明印度家庭的财务认知对个人财务规划的影响。本研究主要试图探讨财务决策中主观思维的基本原理。该模型将反映财务认知对人们财务决策的影响,有助于探索财务信息过程。该研究使用PLS-SEM来探索财务利益所有领域的PFP过程,即现金流管理、投资、保险、退休、税收和遗产规划。本研究以不同行业的受薪人士为样本。这项分析是对来自印度家庭的452份回复进行的。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
FinPlanRN: Other Investments (Topic)
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