Pub Date : 2023-08-01DOI: 10.36334/modsim.2023.bhisitcharoentat
Yanisa Bhishitcharoentat, Kumpol Saengtabtim, N. Leelawat, Jing Tang
: Designing a good user interface in disaster-related applications is crucial to enable users to access and understand how to use the applications quickly in case of an emergency. As stated in multiple novel literatures, there still needed for improvement based on the concept of designing User Interface (UI) and User Experience (UX). Therefore, adapting the current UI based on practical guidelines and keeping up to date with the current design is essential. This research’s literature review was performed to define the effective design for the user interface for disaster-related applications. The research articles related to the UI design from Scopus and Google Scholar were reviewed. The search keywords include (“User Interface” OR “User Experience”) AND (“Application”) AND (“Disaster”). The findings found that the effective way to design UI for disaster-related applications is to make it as user-friendly as possible. The design can help the victims to act and respond quickly during emergencies. In addition, it also needs to be created based on user-centric design principles. Three main aspects can be extracted from the two mentioned principles to support the designing process: (1) developing a set of design guidelines and mock-ups to address the identified usability issues significantly improved the usability and user satisfaction of the application (Kureerung et al. 2022; Molich 1994); (2) the icons, such as the alert button or the button that represent each feature, should be clear and easy to understand (Romano et al., 2016). And (3) a user-friendly and user-centered should be developed (Molich 1994; Rudiastuti et al. 2020; Suzianti
:在与灾难有关的应用程序中设计良好的用户界面对于使用户能够在紧急情况下访问和了解如何快速使用应用程序至关重要。正如许多新文献所述，基于设计用户界面(UI)和用户体验(UX)的概念，仍然需要改进。因此，根据实际指导方针调整当前的UI，并与当前的设计保持同步是必不可少的。本研究的文献回顾是为了定义灾害相关应用程序的用户界面的有效设计。对Scopus和Google Scholar中与UI设计相关的研究文章进行了综述。搜索关键词包括(“用户界面”或“用户体验”)、(“应用程序”)和(“灾难”)。研究发现，为与灾难相关的应用程序设计UI的有效方法是使其尽可能地用户友好。这种设计可以帮助受害者在紧急情况下迅速采取行动和反应。此外，它还需要基于以用户为中心的设计原则来创建。从上述两个原则中可以提取出三个主要方面来支持设计过程:(1)开发一套设计指南和模型来解决确定的可用性问题，显著提高了应用程序的可用性和用户满意度(Kureerung et al. 2022;Molich 1994);(2)图标，如警报按钮或代表每个特征的按钮，应该清晰易懂(Romano et al.， 2016)。(3)应发展一种用户友好和以用户为中心的方法(Molich 1994;rudastuti et al. 2020;Suzianti
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Pub Date : 2023-08-01DOI: 10.36334/modsim.2023.ho16
L. Ho, C. Gan, S. Jin, B. Le
: Firm performance is affected by extreme events including war and pandemic. In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic weakened the performance of stock markets worldwide. Two years later, on 24 February 2022, the Russia-Ukraine war started and took a toll on the world economy, pushed up inflation, and increased the risk of severe adverse outcomes. There is a growing number of studies on the severity of stock market responses to the pandemic and the war in different regions and economies. The enormous increase in economic uncertainty has taught business executives valuable lessons about digital transformation and innovation. The IBM Artificial Intelligence (AI) Adoption Index shows a steady increase in global adoption of AI. However, studies regarding the impacts of the war and pandemic on AI-adopting firms are relatively new and scant. Using data of 231 AI-adopting firms worldwide in developed and emerging markets from January 2013 to April 2022, this paper examines how AI stocks respond to the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. We employ the two-step system Generalized Method of Moments estimation of linear dynamic panel-data model estimation to estimate the firm, market, and extreme event effects on the AI stock performance. Understanding the impacts of different determinants on the success or failure of AI adoption will support firms and investors to manage risks and investment portfolios for sustainable performance. The results show that AI stocks respond to different extreme events differently. The performance of AI-adopting firms is not severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. The impact of the Russia-Ukraine war is more severe than the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. AI-adopting firms in developed markets outperform those in emerging markets when the war broke out. In emerging markets, large firms benefit more from adopting AI in business than small firms.
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Pub Date : 2023-08-01DOI: 10.36334/modsim.2023.comino
E. Comino, J. Ogilvie, M. King, H. Lourey, J. Wharington
: Modern missile threats employ a variety of techniques to defeat countermeasures. Hence, to understand missile capabilities, it is necessary to comprehend the impact of evasion behaviours on missile performance. The general forms of such behaviours are presented in literature (Li et al. 2015), but it is without revealing their detriment on performance. This motivated relating evasion behaviours to mathematical objectives that promote evasion and revealing the interdependencies between evasion and performance. This capability can be used to predict optimal behaviours given relative importance of performance measures. Preliminary investigation is concerned with guidance that attempts to minimise the ability of an observer to predict the target location. More specifically, if many possible range targets share an initially common route, the true target may be disguised. We modelled a ballistic glide projectile in two dimensions on a flat Earth using arbitrary parameters and three degrees of freedom. The projectile is subject to aerodynamic drag and lift forces controllable via angle of attack, and to constraints applied on the maximum lift coefficient and angular rates. The Pyomo differential algebraic equations (DAE) (Sandia National Laboratories 2017) framework was used to represent the model as a constrained nonlinear optimisation problem, where the dynamics are discretised by finite differences with boundary conditions applied to both initial and final states. Modelling the projectile involved formulating a set of two-stage flight paths, where each trajectory shares the initial path before branching off to reach a different target range. This allows us to minimise the total time taken to reach the target in addition to the times for which the vehicle strays from the common path. Weighting these times facilitates adjustment of the relative value between having a long-shared initial stage and the capability to target vaster ranges.
现代导弹威胁采用多种技术来挫败对抗措施。因此，为了了解导弹的性能，有必要了解逃避行为对导弹性能的影响。此类行为的一般形式已在文献中提出(Li et al. 2015)，但并未揭示其对绩效的损害。这促使将逃避行为与促进逃避的数学目标联系起来，并揭示了逃避与表现之间的相互依赖关系。此功能可用于预测给定性能度量的相对重要性的最佳行为。初步调查涉及试图使观察者预测目标位置的能力最小化的制导。更具体地说，如果许多可能的目标共享一条最初的共同路线，那么真正的目标可能会被伪装。我们用任意参数和三个自由度在平面地球上建立了一个弹道滑翔弹的二维模型。弹丸受气动阻力和升力的影响，可通过攻角控制，并受最大升力系数和角速率的约束。使用Pyomo微分代数方程(DAE)(桑迪亚国家实验室2017年)框架将模型表示为约束非线性优化问题，其中动力学通过应用于初始和最终状态的边界条件的有限差分进行离散。对弹丸进行建模包括制定一组两阶段的飞行路径，其中每个轨迹共享初始路径，然后分叉到达不同的目标范围。这使我们能够最小化到达目标的总时间，以及车辆偏离公共路径的时间。对这些时间进行加权有助于调整具有长期共享的初始阶段和瞄准更大范围的能力之间的相对值。
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Pub Date : 2023-08-01DOI: 10.36334/modsim.2023.huth
N. Huth, D. Holzworth
: Farming systems modelling is a well-established science and an important tool for analysing complex farming systems problems. An ability to model the major components of a farming system lies at the core of this approach. As a result, accurate and effective modelling of important Soil Organic Matter (SOM) stocks and processes is important in many applications of Farming Systems Models. These include various SOM and mineral pools, flows of carbon and nutrients between these pools, and losses from these processes. The SoilNitrogen model within APSIM (Holzworth et al, 2018) provides such a capability. Many researchers using the SoilNitrogen model have explored changes for improving model performance. Such efforts include i) changes in the number of soil pools, ii) flows between these pools, iii) functional forms used in calculating flows, and iv) parameters values used in these functions. However, implementation of such changes was not always straightforward because of the way models were implemented. Though there was some consideration of object-oriented approaches for abstracting the science of carbon and nutrient dynamics into instantiable models, the science was mostly captured using traditional procedural programming approaches in FORTRAN or C#. Though there was a clear conceptual model behind the specification of the model (e.g. pools, flows, algorithms), the use of traditional programming approaches did not reflect this way of thinking. Furthermore, it was difficult for researchers to understand or change model design. We used an approach, already found to be widely successful within APSIM for crops (Brown et al, 2014), to capture the needs of researchers. Classes were developed for pools, flows and functions. Users can alter the number of pools, flows between pools, the functional forms used to calculate flows, and parameter values used in functions. All can be altered via the user interface or command-line tools, thus facilitating alternate model configurations or designs within simulations to compare model structures and parameterisations (ie model comparison). This new functionality is referred to as the APSIM Nutrient model. We
农业系统建模是一门成熟的科学，也是分析复杂农业系统问题的重要工具。对农业系统的主要组成部分进行建模的能力是这种方法的核心。因此，在农业系统模型的许多应用中，准确有效地模拟重要的土壤有机质(SOM)储量和过程是很重要的。这些包括各种SOM和矿物池，这些池之间的碳和营养物质流动，以及这些过程造成的损失。APSIM中的SoilNitrogen模型(Holzworth等人，2018)提供了这样的能力。许多使用土壤氮模型的研究人员已经探索了改善模型性能的变化。这些努力包括i)土壤库数量的变化，ii)这些库之间的流动，iii)计算流量时使用的函数形式，以及iv)这些函数中使用的参数值。然而，由于模型的实现方式，这些变更的实现并不总是直截了当的。虽然考虑了一些面向对象的方法来将碳和营养动态的科学抽象到可实例化的模型中，但科学主要是使用传统的FORTRAN或c#过程编程方法来捕获的。尽管在模型的规范背后有一个清晰的概念模型(例如，池、流、算法)，但传统编程方法的使用并没有反映出这种思维方式。此外，研究人员很难理解或改变模型设计。我们使用了一种方法来捕捉研究人员的需求，该方法已经被发现在APSIM作物中广泛成功(Brown et al .， 2014)。类是为池、流和函数开发的。用户可以更改池的数量、池之间的流、用于计算流的函数形式以及函数中使用的参数值。所有这些都可以通过用户界面或命令行工具进行更改，从而促进模拟中的替代模型配置或设计，以比较模型结构和参数化(即模型比较)。这个新功能被称为APSIM营养模型。我们
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Pub Date : 2023-08-01DOI: 10.36334/modsim.2023.pike
K. Pike, M. Golchin, J. Perry, E. Vanderduys, A. Hoskins
: Managing feral buffalo in northern Australia has become a formidable challenge. In the Northern Territory, there are over 200,000 Asian water buffalo ( Bubalus bubalis ), and their large and dense population causes a multitude of economic, biosecurity, cultural, and environmental problems (Collier et al., 2011; Robinson and Whitehead, 2003). Traditional Owners, environmental managers, and landowners, thus need to know where buffalo are in the landscape and what they are doing to adequately manage and mitigate these issues. However, due to the remoteness of buffalo inhabited areas there is limited infrastructure and access available, and the buffalo’s large size and aggressive nature make them very difficult to observe and manage in the wild. Advances in Global Positioning System (GPS) tracking technology allows managers to safely collect high frequency, remotely sensed data on animal locations in space and time that overcome some of the issues of working in logistically challenging locations. The next challenge then becomes extracting ecological metrics from these data with appropriate modelling techniques that accounts for the inherent spatio-temporal autocorrelation and restrictions of high frequency data (Calabrese et al., 2016). Here we present a success story of harnessing spatially explicit movement models to understand buffalo movement and social behaviour to provide data-rich decision support to wildlife managers. We used continuous time movement models to produce autocorrelated kernel density estimates of buffalo home ranges and social encounter area from 126,567 locations from 17 buffalo GPS tracked over a 16-month period. We compared the movement, space use, and social behaviour of buffalo between the wet and dry season of the Djelk area, when resource availability is vastly different in the wetlands of the Northern Territory. We found in the dry season, buffalo space use was restricted, and the size of their home range was significantly smaller than in the wet season
当前位置管理澳大利亚北部的野牛已成为一项艰巨的挑战。在北领地，有超过20万只亚洲水牛(Bubalus bubalis)，它们庞大而密集的人口造成了众多的经济、生物安全、文化和环境问题(Collier et al.， 2011;Robinson and Whitehead, 2003)。因此，传统的所有者、环境管理者和土地所有者需要知道水牛在景观中的位置，以及他们正在做什么来充分管理和缓解这些问题。然而，由于水牛聚居区地处偏远，基础设施和通道有限，而且水牛体型庞大，具有攻击性，因此很难在野外观察和管理它们。全球定位系统(GPS)跟踪技术的进步使管理人员能够安全地在空间和时间上收集动物位置的高频遥感数据，从而克服了在物流具有挑战性的地点工作的一些问题。接下来的挑战是使用适当的建模技术从这些数据中提取生态指标，这些建模技术考虑了固有的时空自相关性和高频数据的限制(Calabrese et al.， 2016)。本文介绍了一个利用空间显性运动模型来理解水牛运动和社会行为的成功案例，为野生动物管理者提供数据丰富的决策支持。我们使用连续时间运动模型对17头水牛在16个月的时间里追踪的126,567个地点进行了自相关核密度估计，得出了水牛的家庭范围和社会接触面积。我们比较了Djelk地区湿季和旱季水牛的活动、空间使用和社会行为，当时北领地湿地的资源可用性差异很大。我们发现，在旱季，水牛的空间利用受到限制，它们的活动范围明显小于雨季
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Pub Date : 2023-08-01DOI: 10.36334/modsim.2023.kermode
S. Kermode
: Have you ever planned, built, run or applied a model on a project without, at some point, being frustrated that someone (or several people, or entire organisations) just didn’t ‘get it’? I’m yet to encounter such a situation or hear from the community of such an occurrence. Whilst my experiences relate to the fields of environmental science and water resources, issues around communication in modelling are agnostic to the technical field. I’ve also observed that these frustrations carry through the entire process and are experienced by all parties involved. Further, these difficulties add complexity, time and stress to the process, and can throw up genuine barriers to sufficient scoping in the early stages through to mistrust or inappropriate adoptions or interpretations in later stages. Where is it going wrong? Why with increased understanding and focus does it continue to go wrong? How can we course correct? There are elements within the control of this community, but how do we influence other stakeholders to come to the communication party? Water modelling best practice commonly referred to in Australia (Jakeman
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Pub Date : 2023-08-01DOI: 10.36334/modsim.2023.matthews
K. Matthews, K. Blackstock, H. Wardell-Johnson, D. Miller, M. Tavana, S. Thomson, A. Moxey, R. Nielson, N. Baggaley, K. Loades, E. Paterson, R. Pakeman, C. Hawes, J. Stockan, M. Stutter, S. Addy, M. Wilkinson
: Public policy confronts complex, contested, wicked problems such as climate and biodiversity crises with challenges of how issues are framed, analysed, codified, and interpreted. Social-ecological systems provide an analytical framework that couples the biosphere and technosphere, recognising biophysical limits and emphasising the importance of critical reflection within policy decision-making. Conducting policy-options appraisals is increasingly seen as a transdisciplinary research-policy endeavour with researchers engaging policy actors in an extended peer community (post-normal science). This paper presents a case study of analysis undertaken with researchers, policy analysts, policy makers and other stakeholders to support decisions on how to implement future agriculture support in Scotland, so that the policy programme better delivers across social, economic and environmental objectives. The key change being considered in the future agricultural support programme is Enhanced Conditionality (EC) where the level of financial support provided to farm-businesses will depend on their undertaking agri-environmental measures that deliver against the key priorities of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and reversing biodiversity losses. The paper outlines the policy context within which the EC options appraisal takes place – highlighting how EC is a crucial component in making the wider suite of policy measures work. The transdisciplinary approach, Quantitative Story Telling (QST) is presented, emerging from decision support, participatory research, and post-normal science for policy domains. The stages of QST highlight the importance of analysis that underpins any quantification (decision on how issues are framed and what it included in the analysis) and the expectation that research outputs with be deliberated on with, and interpreted from, stakeholder perspectives. The project specific analyses are outlined, combining top-down options appraisal of how macro-policy decisions could constrain EC and bottom-up analysis of potential uptake and effectiveness of EC measures, undertaken in inter-disciplinary workshops with domain experts from biodiversity, soils and waters. The paper highlights challenges for implementation and evaluation at meso-scale with interactions between farm-businesses and catchment, landscape and regional objectives. The conclusions of the analysis, in policy terms, are that EC presents an opportunity to significantly realign how agricultural land management is conducted in Scotland, so that it is more effective in delivering climate change and biodiversity objectives, but there are formidable challenges in resolving the policy “sudoku”. Meso-scale issues are likely to mean the need to integrate alternative modelling paradigms such as spatial, empirical agent-based modelling (ABM) into policy option appraisals. By taking multi-scale, social-ecological systems perspectives on EC it has been possible to identify key policy decisi
{"title":"Cross-scale analysis of social-ecological systems: Policy options appraisal for delivering NetZero and other environmental objectives in Scotland","authors":"K. Matthews, K. Blackstock, H. Wardell-Johnson, D. Miller, M. Tavana, S. Thomson, A. Moxey, R. Nielson, N. Baggaley, K. Loades, E. Paterson, R. Pakeman, C. Hawes, J. Stockan, M. Stutter, S. Addy, M. Wilkinson","doi":"10.36334/modsim.2023.matthews","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2023.matthews","url":null,"abstract":": Public policy confronts complex, contested, wicked problems such as climate and biodiversity crises with challenges of how issues are framed, analysed, codified, and interpreted. Social-ecological systems provide an analytical framework that couples the biosphere and technosphere, recognising biophysical limits and emphasising the importance of critical reflection within policy decision-making. Conducting policy-options appraisals is increasingly seen as a transdisciplinary research-policy endeavour with researchers engaging policy actors in an extended peer community (post-normal science). This paper presents a case study of analysis undertaken with researchers, policy analysts, policy makers and other stakeholders to support decisions on how to implement future agriculture support in Scotland, so that the policy programme better delivers across social, economic and environmental objectives. The key change being considered in the future agricultural support programme is Enhanced Conditionality (EC) where the level of financial support provided to farm-businesses will depend on their undertaking agri-environmental measures that deliver against the key priorities of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and reversing biodiversity losses. The paper outlines the policy context within which the EC options appraisal takes place – highlighting how EC is a crucial component in making the wider suite of policy measures work. The transdisciplinary approach, Quantitative Story Telling (QST) is presented, emerging from decision support, participatory research, and post-normal science for policy domains. The stages of QST highlight the importance of analysis that underpins any quantification (decision on how issues are framed and what it included in the analysis) and the expectation that research outputs with be deliberated on with, and interpreted from, stakeholder perspectives. The project specific analyses are outlined, combining top-down options appraisal of how macro-policy decisions could constrain EC and bottom-up analysis of potential uptake and effectiveness of EC measures, undertaken in inter-disciplinary workshops with domain experts from biodiversity, soils and waters. The paper highlights challenges for implementation and evaluation at meso-scale with interactions between farm-businesses and catchment, landscape and regional objectives. The conclusions of the analysis, in policy terms, are that EC presents an opportunity to significantly realign how agricultural land management is conducted in Scotland, so that it is more effective in delivering climate change and biodiversity objectives, but there are formidable challenges in resolving the policy “sudoku”. Meso-scale issues are likely to mean the need to integrate alternative modelling paradigms such as spatial, empirical agent-based modelling (ABM) into policy option appraisals. By taking multi-scale, social-ecological systems perspectives on EC it has been possible to identify key policy decisi","PeriodicalId":390064,"journal":{"name":"MODSIM2023, 25th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation.","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116766559","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-01DOI: 10.36334/modsim.2023.tan177
D. Tan, M. Vieno, E. Nemitz, M. Heal, S. Reis
: Wildfires are a fundamental part of the Earth’s ecosystem. However, climate change and other factors such as population and land-use changes are affecting propensities for fire around the globe, posing an increasing risk to humans and the environment. Some regions may become less vulnerable to wildfires, while others are likely to see an increase in wildfire frequency, magnitude and intensity. The latter includes many European regions, where changes have become apparent over the last decades. The UK, categorised as increasingly vulnerable to wildfire, is also likely to see increases in fire danger and duration (Arnell et al. 2021, Perry et al. 2022). A better understanding of the impact of wildfires, and more generally open biomass burning 1 , is therefore crucial to pre-empting and mitigating the impact of wildfires in different environments. The aim here is to gain an overview of the contribution of open biomass burning to UK air quality. While its absolute contribution is small compared to current conventional anthropogenic emissions, its relative contribution will become more important if increasingly stringent air quality targets are to be met in the future. Fine particulate matter (PM 2 . 5 ) is the pollutant considered here, due to its impact on human health and the ambitious new Air Quality Guideline values recently published by the WHO (2021), which include an annual PM 2 . 5 guideline level of 5 µ g m − 3 . The EMEP4UK chemistry transport model (Vieno et al. 2016) is used, over a European domain and a nested UK domain with 3 km x 3 km horizontal resolution. Emissions from open biomass burning are included using the Fire INventory from National Center for Atmospheric Research (FINN) v1.5. We quantify the magnitude of modelled surface concentrations and identify sources contributing to this, distinguishing between contributions from burning within and outwith the UK, and between primary and secondary PM 2 . 5 . We also aim to distinguish between contributions from wildfires and prescribed burning. UK-wide averages and individual episodic events are considered, with comparison to other emission sources and future air quality targets. Comparison of modelled vs observed concentrations of PM 2 . 5 , including detailed speciated particulate matter data, will be undertaken with data from UK air quality supersites
野火是地球生态系统的基本组成部分。然而，气候变化以及人口和土地利用变化等其他因素正在影响全球的火灾倾向，对人类和环境构成越来越大的风险。一些地区可能会变得不那么容易受到野火的影响，而另一些地区可能会看到野火的频率、规模和强度增加。后者包括许多欧洲地区，在过去几十年里，这些地区的变化已经变得很明显。被归类为越来越容易受到野火影响的英国，也可能会看到火灾危险和持续时间的增加(Arnell et al. 2021, Perry et al. 2022)。因此，更好地了解野火的影响，以及更普遍的开放式生物质燃烧，对于预防和减轻不同环境下野火的影响至关重要。这里的目的是获得开放生物质燃烧对英国空气质量贡献的概述。虽然与目前传统的人为排放相比，其绝对贡献很小，但如果将来要达到日益严格的空气质量目标，其相对贡献将变得更加重要。细颗粒物(PM 2)。5)是这里考虑的污染物，因为它对人类健康的影响以及世卫组织最近发布的雄心勃勃的新空气质量指南值(2021年)，其中包括每年的PM 2。5 .指导水平为5µg m−3。使用EMEP4UK化学输运模型(Vieno et al. 2016)，覆盖欧洲区域和嵌套的英国区域，水平分辨率为3公里x 3公里。使用国家大气研究中心(FINN) v1.5版本的火灾清单，包括开放式生物质燃烧产生的排放。我们量化了模拟表面浓度的大小，并确定了造成这种情况的来源，区分了英国内外燃烧的贡献，以及一次和二次PM 2之间的贡献。５ ． 我们还旨在区分野火和规定燃烧的贡献。考虑了英国的平均水平和个别偶发事件，并与其他排放源和未来空气质量目标进行了比较。模拟与观测的PM 2浓度的比较。5，包括详细的特定颗粒物数据，将与英国空气质量监测站的数据一起进行
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Pub Date : 2023-08-01DOI: 10.36334/modsim.2023.li404
Weihong Li, C. Zhu, Yapeng Chen
: The Tarim River basin, located in the mid-latitude and extremely arid region of the northern hemisphere, has experienced the most prominent warming during the past few decades. Characterized by scarce water resources and a fragile ecological system, this region is strongly affected by climate change and human activities, which has intensified agricultural water consumption, exacerbated the already-serious water crisis, and aggregated the deterioration of the ecological environment. With the rapid increase in the use of irrigation water, ecological water has been seriously squeezed out, causing large areas of desert vegetation to die. To alleviate deterioration of the ecological environment and promote socio-economic development in the Tarim River Basin, the government initiated the “Comprehensive Control Project of the Tarim River Basin” in June 2001, focusing on water saving in the irrigation area, including reconstruction of plain reservoirs, groundwater exploitation and utilization, ecological reconstruction and construction of mountain reservoirs. Under global warming, the climate has experienced significant warming during 1961–2020, and the most dramatic increase has occurred since the mid-1980s. The temperature increased at a rate of 0.224 ℃ per decade. For precipitation, about 72.3% meteorological stations experienced significant increase, with an average increasing rate of 7.47 mm per decade. The increased precipitation and temperature and the resulted hydrological and ecological changes lead to a hot debate about the “warm-wet” trend. This study systematically investigated the changes in water resources and ecological conditions in the arid Tarim River basin under climate change and human activities. Thanks to the “Comprehensive Control Project”, the groundwater level has been lift, the surface water area has increased, the NPP has increased, and the vegetation carbon sinks also increased for the lower reaches of the Tarim River. Note that the most ecologically beneficiary area from this project is mostly located in the lower reaches of the Tarim River Basin. For the entire basin, the changes in climatic factors dominate the changes in hydrological and ecological processes. Climatic changes cause changes in the accumulation and ablation of snow and glaciers, which resulted in changes in hydrological processes. The total lake area in the Tarim River has expanded at a rate of 23.79 km 2 per year during 2012–2021. The runoffs of the four headwaters (i.e., Kaidu River, Aksu River, Yarkant River, Hotan River) of the Tarim River have also increased by a rate of 2.06×10 8 m 3 , 2.11×10 8 m 3 , 1.12×10 8 m 3 and 2.56×10 8 m 3 per decade, respectively. However, the changes in ecological systems don’t reflect the wetter trend in the Tarim Basin. The negative effects of climate change on the region’s vulnerable ecology have intensified. Potential evaporation decreased at a rate of 41.66 mm/10a per decade prior to the mid-1990s, and inversed to in
{"title":"Recent changes in the water and ecological condition at the arid Tarim River Basin","authors":"Weihong Li, C. Zhu, Yapeng Chen","doi":"10.36334/modsim.2023.li404","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2023.li404","url":null,"abstract":": The Tarim River basin, located in the mid-latitude and extremely arid region of the northern hemisphere, has experienced the most prominent warming during the past few decades. Characterized by scarce water resources and a fragile ecological system, this region is strongly affected by climate change and human activities, which has intensified agricultural water consumption, exacerbated the already-serious water crisis, and aggregated the deterioration of the ecological environment. With the rapid increase in the use of irrigation water, ecological water has been seriously squeezed out, causing large areas of desert vegetation to die. To alleviate deterioration of the ecological environment and promote socio-economic development in the Tarim River Basin, the government initiated the “Comprehensive Control Project of the Tarim River Basin” in June 2001, focusing on water saving in the irrigation area, including reconstruction of plain reservoirs, groundwater exploitation and utilization, ecological reconstruction and construction of mountain reservoirs. Under global warming, the climate has experienced significant warming during 1961–2020, and the most dramatic increase has occurred since the mid-1980s. The temperature increased at a rate of 0.224 ℃ per decade. For precipitation, about 72.3% meteorological stations experienced significant increase, with an average increasing rate of 7.47 mm per decade. The increased precipitation and temperature and the resulted hydrological and ecological changes lead to a hot debate about the “warm-wet” trend. This study systematically investigated the changes in water resources and ecological conditions in the arid Tarim River basin under climate change and human activities. Thanks to the “Comprehensive Control Project”, the groundwater level has been lift, the surface water area has increased, the NPP has increased, and the vegetation carbon sinks also increased for the lower reaches of the Tarim River. Note that the most ecologically beneficiary area from this project is mostly located in the lower reaches of the Tarim River Basin. For the entire basin, the changes in climatic factors dominate the changes in hydrological and ecological processes. Climatic changes cause changes in the accumulation and ablation of snow and glaciers, which resulted in changes in hydrological processes. The total lake area in the Tarim River has expanded at a rate of 23.79 km 2 per year during 2012–2021. The runoffs of the four headwaters (i.e., Kaidu River, Aksu River, Yarkant River, Hotan River) of the Tarim River have also increased by a rate of 2.06×10 8 m 3 , 2.11×10 8 m 3 , 1.12×10 8 m 3 and 2.56×10 8 m 3 per decade, respectively. However, the changes in ecological systems don’t reflect the wetter trend in the Tarim Basin. The negative effects of climate change on the region’s vulnerable ecology have intensified. Potential evaporation decreased at a rate of 41.66 mm/10a per decade prior to the mid-1990s, and inversed to in","PeriodicalId":390064,"journal":{"name":"MODSIM2023, 25th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation.","volume":"40 4","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114024050","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-01DOI: 10.36334/modsim.2023.yao238
Jiayu Yao, Wenyan Wu, A. Simpson, B. Rismanchi
: A water distribution system (WDS) is a vital component of water infrastructure systems. The pump operation in pressurised WDSs usually consumes significant electricity. To reduce pumping-related cost and environmental impact, behind-the-meter solar photovoltaic (BTM solar PV) system is becoming an increasingly popular additional source of energy supply for WDSs. The integration of the BTM solar PV system to WDSs is complex, requiring the consideration of the interaction between the WDS and the solar PV system. Moreover, future changes in water demand and solar PV technology development in terms of unit cost and conversion efficiency further complicate the design of WDSs integrating BTM solar. This research aims to investigate the impact of long-term changes in water demand and solar PV technology development on the co-design of WDSs integrating BTM solar considering system performance in terms of the life cycle cost and grid energy consumption. In this study, future water demand is assumed to change between -30% to +100% in the next 60 years. Three solar PV technology development conditions are considered: the baseline condition (T const. ) with the current unit cost and conversion efficiency, the conventional technology (T conv. ) resulting in a moderate reduction in unit cost and increase in conversion efficiency, and the advanced technology (T adv. ) resulting in a larger reduction in unit cost and rapid increase in conversion efficiency. In total 15 scenarios considering the different changes in water demand and solar PV technology development have been developed to represent future uncertainty. The integrated system has been optimised under each scenario, and the performance of the design is evaluated across all scenarios. The performance distribution of 3 specific designs obtained under three scenarios with the demand change by +30% and the 3 different solar PV technology development conditions is illustrated in Fig.1: Design 1 from T const. , Design 2 from T conv. , and Design 3 from T adv. , respectively. Results show that the potential development in BTM solar technology, i.e., future improvements in the unit cost and conversion efficiency, has a limited impact on the sizing of the pipes and pumps of WDSs. However, the changes in water demand will have a significant impact on the optimal sizing of WDSs. The higher the demand growth, the larger the sizes of pipes and pumps are expected. It is evident from Figure 1 that for the same WDS, more advanced development in solar PV technology leads to more consistent performance (i.e., the narrowed range of values) in terms of cost. More importantly, it leads to much lower grid energy consumed, as well as more consistent energy performance across various water demand conditions. The integration of solar PV systems into WDSs helps to reduce the risk of oversizing WDSs by improving the energy performance of WDSs under changing water demand conditions. The results also highlight the opportunity of
配水系统是水利基础设施系统的重要组成部分。在加压水泵站中，泵的运行通常会消耗大量的电力。为了减少抽水相关的成本和对环境的影响，太阳能光伏发电(BTM solar PV)系统正成为污水处理厂越来越受欢迎的额外能源供应来源。BTM太阳能光伏系统与WDS的集成比较复杂，需要考虑WDS与太阳能光伏系统之间的相互作用。此外，未来用水需求的变化和太阳能光伏技术在单位成本和转换效率方面的发展，进一步使集成BTM太阳能的WDSs的设计复杂化。本研究旨在探讨水资源需求的长期变化和太阳能光伏技术的发展对集成BTM太阳能的WDSs协同设计的影响，同时考虑系统在生命周期成本和电网能耗方面的性能。在这项研究中，未来60年的用水需求将在-30%到+100%之间变化。考虑三种太阳能光伏技术发展条件:基线条件(T常数)。在目前的单位成本和转换效率下，常规技术(T conv.)导致单位成本的适度降低和转换效率的提高，而先进技术(T adv.)导致单位成本的较大降低和转换效率的快速提高。考虑到水需求和太阳能光伏技术发展的不同变化，总共有15种情景，以代表未来的不确定性。集成系统在每个场景下都进行了优化，设计的性能在所有场景下都进行了评估。需求变化+30%、3种不同太阳能光伏技术发展条件下3种具体设计方案的性能分布如图1所示:设计1来自T const。，设计2来自T conv.，设计3来自T adv.。结果表明，BTM太阳能技术的潜在发展，即单位成本和转换效率的未来提高，对wds管道和泵的尺寸影响有限。然而，需水量的变化将对污水处理区的最佳规模产生重大影响。需求增长越高，预计管道和泵的尺寸就越大。从图1中可以明显看出，对于相同的WDS，太阳能光伏技术的发展越先进，在成本方面的性能越一致(即值的范围越窄)。更重要的是，它导致更低的电网能源消耗，以及在各种水需求条件下更一致的能源性能。将太阳能光伏系统集成到水处理系统中，通过改善水处理系统在不断变化的水需求条件下的能源性能，有助于减少水处理系统过大的风险。该结果还强调了通过集成BTM太阳能光伏系统来改善潜在的小型wds未来性能的机会。
{"title":"Is behind-the-meter solar an effective way to improve water distribution system resilience?","authors":"Jiayu Yao, Wenyan Wu, A. Simpson, B. Rismanchi","doi":"10.36334/modsim.2023.yao238","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2023.yao238","url":null,"abstract":": A water distribution system (WDS) is a vital component of water infrastructure systems. The pump operation in pressurised WDSs usually consumes significant electricity. To reduce pumping-related cost and environmental impact, behind-the-meter solar photovoltaic (BTM solar PV) system is becoming an increasingly popular additional source of energy supply for WDSs. The integration of the BTM solar PV system to WDSs is complex, requiring the consideration of the interaction between the WDS and the solar PV system. Moreover, future changes in water demand and solar PV technology development in terms of unit cost and conversion efficiency further complicate the design of WDSs integrating BTM solar. This research aims to investigate the impact of long-term changes in water demand and solar PV technology development on the co-design of WDSs integrating BTM solar considering system performance in terms of the life cycle cost and grid energy consumption. In this study, future water demand is assumed to change between -30% to +100% in the next 60 years. Three solar PV technology development conditions are considered: the baseline condition (T const. ) with the current unit cost and conversion efficiency, the conventional technology (T conv. ) resulting in a moderate reduction in unit cost and increase in conversion efficiency, and the advanced technology (T adv. ) resulting in a larger reduction in unit cost and rapid increase in conversion efficiency. In total 15 scenarios considering the different changes in water demand and solar PV technology development have been developed to represent future uncertainty. The integrated system has been optimised under each scenario, and the performance of the design is evaluated across all scenarios. The performance distribution of 3 specific designs obtained under three scenarios with the demand change by +30% and the 3 different solar PV technology development conditions is illustrated in Fig.1: Design 1 from T const. , Design 2 from T conv. , and Design 3 from T adv. , respectively. Results show that the potential development in BTM solar technology, i.e., future improvements in the unit cost and conversion efficiency, has a limited impact on the sizing of the pipes and pumps of WDSs. However, the changes in water demand will have a significant impact on the optimal sizing of WDSs. The higher the demand growth, the larger the sizes of pipes and pumps are expected. It is evident from Figure 1 that for the same WDS, more advanced development in solar PV technology leads to more consistent performance (i.e., the narrowed range of values) in terms of cost. More importantly, it leads to much lower grid energy consumed, as well as more consistent energy performance across various water demand conditions. The integration of solar PV systems into WDSs helps to reduce the risk of oversizing WDSs by improving the energy performance of WDSs under changing water demand conditions. The results also highlight the opportunity of","PeriodicalId":390064,"journal":{"name":"MODSIM2023, 25th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation.","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122926770","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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