We consider the problem of allocating a tariff-rate quota among a small number of firms which act as middlemen between competitive producers and atomistic consumers and can import a perfect substitute at a fixed world price. We compare the traditional license-on-demand regime to administer such quotas with a domestic purchase requirement under which each firm is allocated a share of the quota that depends on the share of the total quantity bought from domestic suppliers. We give conditions such that the domestic purchase requirement strictly welfare-dominates the license system. Moreover, we show that for any binding import quota the welfare maximizing number of firms is finite
{"title":"Allocating Tariff-Rate Quotas: The Case of Domestic Purchase Requirement","authors":"Samuel Häfner, Yvan Lengwiler","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3293534","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3293534","url":null,"abstract":"We consider the problem of allocating a tariff-rate quota among a small number of firms which act as middlemen between competitive producers and atomistic consumers and can import a perfect substitute at a fixed world price. We compare the traditional license-on-demand regime to administer such quotas with a domestic purchase requirement under which each firm is allocated a share of the quota that depends on the share of the total quantity bought from domestic suppliers. We give conditions such that the domestic purchase requirement strictly welfare-dominates the license system. Moreover, we show that for any binding import quota the welfare maximizing number of firms is finite","PeriodicalId":391101,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: International Economics eJournal","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122773721","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper investigates how firms misreport their imports and exports to evade corporate income taxes (CIT). I propose a simple model where in response to a CIT rate increase, firms under-report exports (sales) to lower taxable profits. The same firms wish to over-report imports (costs) to further lower reported profits, yet may prefer to under-report imports together with exports to minimize inconsistencies in income statements that heighten the risk to be audited. The condition dictating which behaviour is optimal depends on observables, and thus offers reduced-form testable predictions. Trading partners located abroad - which are not impacted by the tax change - report the same trade flows to their own authorities, yet do not have the same incentives to misreport. I find strong empirical support for the model predictions based on correlations between tax rates and mirror statistics of trade flows between countries at the product level. Firms appear to under-report exports to lower taxable profits upon an increase in the CIT rate, while their choice to either under- or over-report imports depends on country, industry, and product characteristics as predicted in the model. I also show that firms misreport trade flows to shift profits across years in a manner suggesting evasion motives. Multinational firms appear less likely to engage in these evasion strategies, although they account for a large share of trade volumes.
{"title":"Corporate Tax Evasion: Evidence from International Trade","authors":"A. Bussy","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3607016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3607016","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates how firms misreport their imports and exports to evade corporate income taxes (CIT). I propose a simple model where in response to a CIT rate increase, firms under-report exports (sales) to lower taxable profits. The same firms wish to over-report imports (costs) to further lower reported profits, yet may prefer to under-report imports together with exports to minimize inconsistencies in income statements that heighten the risk to be audited. The condition dictating which behaviour is optimal depends on observables, and thus offers reduced-form testable predictions. Trading partners located abroad - which are not impacted by the tax change - report the same trade flows to their own authorities, yet do not have the same incentives to misreport. I find strong empirical support for the model predictions based on correlations between tax rates and mirror statistics of trade flows between countries at the product level. Firms appear to under-report exports to lower taxable profits upon an increase in the CIT rate, while their choice to either under- or over-report imports depends on country, industry, and product characteristics as predicted in the model. I also show that firms misreport trade flows to shift profits across years in a manner suggesting evasion motives. Multinational firms appear less likely to engage in these evasion strategies, although they account for a large share of trade volumes.","PeriodicalId":391101,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: International Economics eJournal","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126470370","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study provides evidence that trade expansion has contributed to the degradation of air pollution in China. On the basis of different responses of counties’ trade to China's World Trade Organization accession at the end of 2001, we exploit air pollution data from NASA to construct a difference‐in‐differences predicted trade as an instrument for our identification. We document statistically significant and robust evidence on trade expansion, which accounts for approximately 60% and 20% for the increase of PM and SO, respectively, in China. Findings on trade pollution relation are robust to various tests. Deterioration in the environment is mainly driven by scale and trade in polluting sectors.
{"title":"WTO Accession, Trade Expansion, and Air Pollution: Evidence from China's County‐Level Panel Data","authors":"Shuai Chen, Faqin Lin, Xi Yao, Peng Zhang","doi":"10.1111/roie.12480","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12480","url":null,"abstract":"This study provides evidence that trade expansion has contributed to the degradation of air pollution in China. On the basis of different responses of counties’ trade to China's World Trade Organization accession at the end of 2001, we exploit air pollution data from NASA to construct a difference‐in‐differences predicted trade as an instrument for our identification. We document statistically significant and robust evidence on trade expansion, which accounts for approximately 60% and 20% for the increase of PM and SO, respectively, in China. Findings on trade pollution relation are robust to various tests. Deterioration in the environment is mainly driven by scale and trade in polluting sectors.","PeriodicalId":391101,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: International Economics eJournal","volume":"63 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131526040","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Ishfaque Ahmed Soomro, Suresh Kumar Oad Rajput, N. Ali
This study introduces a comprehensive Google search volume based Bitcoin sentiment index (BSI) by following the methodology of Da, Engelberg, and Gao (2014). BSI is investigated for its association with Bitcoin returns, trade volume, volatility, and United States dollar exchange rates (USD). Results of the simple OLS regression clarify that BSI has a positive impact on Bitcoin returns and trade volume while it has a negative impact on the volatility of Bitcoin returns. Furthermore, the Auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model has been used to capture the relationship between BSI and Bitcoin price with USD. Empirical results of the ARDL model demonstrate that Bitcoin sentiments affect USD in the short-run but not long-run. However, Bitcoin's price can negatively affect USD in short as well as in the long-run. Error correction term represents a 38.50% adjustment towards the long-run equilibrium in one month if there is a deviation in the short-run. The results imply that investors in FOREX or public in general interested in Bitcoin trading should foresee sentiments of the public towards Bitcoin.
{"title":"Bitcoin Sentiment Index, Performance and US Dollar Exchange Rate","authors":"Ishfaque Ahmed Soomro, Suresh Kumar Oad Rajput, N. Ali","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3597331","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3597331","url":null,"abstract":"This study introduces a comprehensive Google search volume based Bitcoin sentiment index (BSI) by following the methodology of Da, Engelberg, and Gao (2014). BSI is investigated for its association with Bitcoin returns, trade volume, volatility, and United States dollar exchange rates (USD). Results of the simple OLS regression clarify that BSI has a positive impact on Bitcoin returns and trade volume while it has a negative impact on the volatility of Bitcoin returns. Furthermore, the Auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model has been used to capture the relationship between BSI and Bitcoin price with USD. Empirical results of the ARDL model demonstrate that Bitcoin sentiments affect USD in the short-run but not long-run. However, Bitcoin's price can negatively affect USD in short as well as in the long-run. Error correction term represents a 38.50% adjustment towards the long-run equilibrium in one month if there is a deviation in the short-run. The results imply that investors in FOREX or public in general interested in Bitcoin trading should foresee sentiments of the public towards Bitcoin.","PeriodicalId":391101,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: International Economics eJournal","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120937641","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The study examined high volatile assets, specifically the currency exchange rate of the open financial market. Takes into consideration the five most traded paired currencies of the global financial market. And observed, generally, the data set of the unit currency exchange rate exhibit homoscedastic qualities making it appropriate for the use of auto-regression integrated moving average as a reliable model forecast for future pricing of the volatile assets. However, the current model prediction addresses only the magnitude of asset price ignoring its direction, which is the paramount challenge of forecasters. Hence the paper resolves such weakness of the model by introducing a momentum model as a complementary tool to the ARIMA model to determine not only price magnitude but the vector direction of volatile asset pricing relative to the market, dependent on its lagged values.
{"title":"Modern Currency Exchange Rate Behaviour and Proposed Trend-Like Forecasting Model","authors":"Emmanuel Tweneboah Senzu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3587550","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3587550","url":null,"abstract":"The study examined high volatile assets, specifically the currency exchange rate of the open financial market. Takes into consideration the five most traded paired currencies of the global financial market. And observed, generally, the data set of the unit currency exchange rate exhibit homoscedastic qualities making it appropriate for the use of auto-regression integrated moving average as a reliable model forecast for future pricing of the volatile assets. However, the current model prediction addresses only the magnitude of asset price ignoring its direction, which is the paramount challenge of forecasters. Hence the paper resolves such weakness of the model by introducing a momentum model as a complementary tool to the ARIMA model to determine not only price magnitude but the vector direction of volatile asset pricing relative to the market, dependent on its lagged values.","PeriodicalId":391101,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: International Economics eJournal","volume":"65 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128318345","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Energy is pivotal for socio-economic and cultural development. Last century witnessed a drastic increase, on one hand on the consumption of energy and, on the other on greenhouse gases emissions. Traditionally, energy security has been linked with the need to guarantee supply and, in turn, enables economic growth. Against this background, countries focused on diversifying both energy sources and trade partners while at the same time increasing investment in energy infrastructure and technology. Investment in low-carbon energy sources for enhancing national energy policies prompts for a new understanding of energy security. The aim is, in fact, not anymore limited to securing provision but also to strengthen diversification and counteract the negative effects of energy consumption on the environment. The need to include a sustainability component to energy in trade, business and in the society at large, is adding a further layer of complexity in shaping national and international energy policy. Strategies to balance energy security, business, trade, and sustainable development are urgently needed in the Anthropocene. Creative and innovative approaches to energy policy could be found in countries where energy consumption is on a steady rise and environmental degradation is crystal clear.
{"title":"Strategies to Balance Energy Security, Business, Trade and Sustainable Development","authors":"P. Farah","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3658668","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3658668","url":null,"abstract":"Energy is pivotal for socio-economic and cultural development. Last century witnessed a drastic increase, on one hand on the consumption of energy and, on the other on greenhouse gases emissions. Traditionally, energy security has been linked with the need to guarantee supply and, in turn, enables economic growth. Against this background, countries focused on diversifying both energy sources and trade partners while at the same time increasing investment in energy infrastructure and technology. Investment in low-carbon energy sources for enhancing national energy policies prompts for a new understanding of energy security. The aim is, in fact, not anymore limited to securing provision but also to strengthen diversification and counteract the negative effects of energy consumption on the environment. The need to include a sustainability component to energy in trade, business and in the society at large, is adding a further layer of complexity in shaping national and international energy policy. Strategies to balance energy security, business, trade, and sustainable development are urgently needed in the Anthropocene. Creative and innovative approaches to energy policy could be found in countries where energy consumption is on a steady rise and environmental degradation is crystal clear.","PeriodicalId":391101,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: International Economics eJournal","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128750674","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The globalization of COVID-19 pandemic is en route to produce a chain of economic impacts worldwide through distortions in global trade and supply chain. The globalization of production and trade shocks in relation to China generate substantial threat to world trade. The aim of this paper is to provide a preliminary and broad-based understanding of likely trade implications of the pandemic. Beginning with an assessment on likely implications for trade between China and the rest of the world, the paper uses a standard trade analysis framework to explain the implications for world trade. The paper then presents a theoretical mapping that shows likely progression and span of trade implications and reviews emerging evidence to identify if real-life outcomes follow the map. The paper concludes that the pandemic is likely to not only introduce new patterns of world trade but also affect trade relations and globalization, making some economies winners and some losers. Given the scarcity of scholarly work on COVID-19’s trade implications, the paper contributes by offering a novel broad-based understanding, which could serve as a basis for advanced analysis. Assessments of the paper could help policy-makers in preparing for a new world order of international trade.
{"title":"COVID-19 Pandemic and World Trade: Some Analytical Notes","authors":"S. Barua","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3577627","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3577627","url":null,"abstract":"The globalization of COVID-19 pandemic is en route to produce a chain of economic impacts worldwide through distortions in global trade and supply chain. The globalization of production and trade shocks in relation to China generate substantial threat to world trade. The aim of this paper is to provide a preliminary and broad-based understanding of likely trade implications of the pandemic. Beginning with an assessment on likely implications for trade between China and the rest of the world, the paper uses a standard trade analysis framework to explain the implications for world trade. The paper then presents a theoretical mapping that shows likely progression and span of trade implications and reviews emerging evidence to identify if real-life outcomes follow the map. The paper concludes that the pandemic is likely to not only introduce new patterns of world trade but also affect trade relations and globalization, making some economies winners and some losers. Given the scarcity of scholarly work on COVID-19’s trade implications, the paper contributes by offering a novel broad-based understanding, which could serve as a basis for advanced analysis. Assessments of the paper could help policy-makers in preparing for a new world order of international trade.","PeriodicalId":391101,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: International Economics eJournal","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125945587","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In a seminal paper, Helpman et al. (2008) demonstrate that accounting for self-selection and firm heterogeneity is crucial for obtaining unbiased estimates in the gravity equation. In this paper, we show how this insight helps solve the trade elasticity puzzle that, hitherto, trade elasticity estimates in the gravity equations have implied very small welfare gains from trade. To apply their approach to product-level data, we propose new exclusion restrictions based on the export learning literature. Our new estimates imply much larger welfare gains from trade than the previous literature suggested.
{"title":"Trade Elasticity: Estimates from Product-Level Data","authors":"Juyoung Cheong, D. Kwak, K. Tang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3562072","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3562072","url":null,"abstract":"In a seminal paper, Helpman et al. (2008) demonstrate that accounting for self-selection and firm heterogeneity is crucial for obtaining unbiased estimates in the gravity equation. In this paper, we show how this insight helps solve the trade elasticity puzzle that, hitherto, trade elasticity estimates in the gravity equations have implied very small welfare gains from trade. To apply their approach to product-level data, we propose new exclusion restrictions based on the export learning literature. Our new estimates imply much larger welfare gains from trade than the previous literature suggested.","PeriodicalId":391101,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: International Economics eJournal","volume":"81 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124328000","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Long-term regional convergence hypothesis is examined for 32 Mexican states in a regional growth model with poverty traps using a new dataset on regional income inequality for the period 1940-2011. Although zero-growth poverty trap hypothesis is rejected for 28 out of 32 states, the evidence confirms β-convergence and σ-convergence for the period 1940-1980 and indicates the breakup of convergence in post-1980 period. The break in the convergence process is attributed to trade liberalization carried out under weak state capacity and clientelistic patronage environment without independent and effective regulators. The widening of regional inequality is characterized by an increase in growth in high-income U.S.-border states and no such increase in poorer states that cannot converge to the frontier under such conditions. When long-term convergence relationship is conditioned on unobserved long-run effects, the speed of convergence for pre-1980 period is around 2% per year and diminishes with the estimation horizon. Sensitivity analysis based on income-specific quantile regressions emphasizes substantial heterogeneity in the speed of convergence across states.
{"title":"Regional Convergence and Trade Liberalization under Weak State Capacity: Evidence from Mexico","authors":"R. Spruk","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3558735","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3558735","url":null,"abstract":"Long-term regional convergence hypothesis is examined for 32 Mexican states in a regional growth model with poverty traps using a new dataset on regional income inequality for the period 1940-2011. Although zero-growth poverty trap hypothesis is rejected for 28 out of 32 states, the evidence confirms β-convergence and σ-convergence for the period 1940-1980 and indicates the breakup of convergence in post-1980 period. The break in the convergence process is attributed to trade liberalization carried out under weak state capacity and clientelistic patronage environment without independent and effective regulators. The widening of regional inequality is characterized by an increase in growth in high-income U.S.-border states and no such increase in poorer states that cannot converge to the frontier under such conditions. When long-term convergence relationship is conditioned on unobserved long-run effects, the speed of convergence for pre-1980 period is around 2% per year and diminishes with the estimation horizon. Sensitivity analysis based on income-specific quantile regressions emphasizes substantial heterogeneity in the speed of convergence across states.","PeriodicalId":391101,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: International Economics eJournal","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132363425","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We assume that the variations of the exchange rate depend on the current net demand of the base currency as a consequence of market making, and that the current net demand of the base currency depends on current and past variations of the exchange rate as a consequence of how future price expectations are formed by bounded rational agents. We achieve identification supposing that the structural shocks of price variations and demand follow a GARCH process. Using high-frequency transaction data of the EUR/USD market in 2016, we show that the simultaneous effects of price on demand and vice-versa are both significant and positive. Our estimates suggest that one important source of heterogeneity in demand might be missing from our model, since the structural errors are negatively correlated.
{"title":"Structural Interdependence of Price and Demand in a Model of the Foreign Exchange Market with Heterogeneous Speculators: Evidence from High-frequency Data","authors":"Leonardo Bargigli, G. Cifarelli","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3568786","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3568786","url":null,"abstract":"We assume that the variations of the exchange rate depend on the current net demand of the base currency as a consequence of market making, and that the current net demand of the base currency depends on current and past variations of the exchange rate as a consequence of how future price expectations are formed by bounded rational agents. We achieve identification supposing that the structural shocks of price variations and demand follow a GARCH process. Using high-frequency transaction data of the EUR/USD market in 2016, we show that the simultaneous effects of price on demand and vice-versa are both significant and positive. Our estimates suggest that one important source of heterogeneity in demand might be missing from our model, since the structural errors are negatively correlated.","PeriodicalId":391101,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: International Economics eJournal","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134252708","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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