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“Reference Class Forecasting” – databased risk estimation for complex projects “参考等级预测”——基于数据库的复杂项目风险估计
Q4 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2025-11-11 DOI: 10.1002/geot.70049
Dipl.-Ing. Dr. techn. Alexander Bender, Univ.-Prof. Dr.-Ing. Frank Lulei, Univ.-Lektor Dipl.-Ing. Dr. techn. Kurt Hechenblaickner

This publication presents the data-based technique of Reference Class Forecasting for risk management in complex major projects. Complex projects consist of plannable and dynamic parts, which lead to changes, surprises and unknown events. Not all opportunities and risks can be estimated correctly. Reference Class Forecasting provides a risk uplift which, due to its statistical nature, also adequately considers feedback loop effects, human expertise and problem-solving skills as well as the unknown. Reference classes for new projects are formed using a valid project evaluation and statistics on the risk surcharges required for completed projects. Assignment to a class allows a recommendation to the risk uplift.

本文提出了一种基于数据的参考类预测技术,用于复杂重大项目的风险管理。复杂的项目由可计划的和动态的部分组成,这些部分会导致变化、意外和未知事件。并非所有的机会和风险都能被正确估计。参考类预测提供了一种风险提升,由于其统计性质,也充分考虑了反馈循环效应、人类专业知识和解决问题的技能以及未知因素。新项目的参考类别是根据有效的项目评估和已完成项目所需风险附加费的统计数据形成的。分配到一个类允许推荐风险提升。
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引用次数: 0
Product Information: Geomechanics and Tunnelling 6/2025 产品信息:地质力学和隧道掘进6/2025
Q4 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2025-11-11 DOI: 10.1002/geot.70051
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引用次数: 0
Vorschau: Geomechanics and Tunnelling 6/2025 Vorschau:岩土力学与隧道工程6/2025
Q4 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2025-11-11 DOI: 10.1002/geot.70054
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引用次数: 0
Failure of support measures – analysis based on 3 examples 支持措施失效——基于3个例子的分析
Q4 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2025-11-11 DOI: 10.1002/geot.70034
Dipl.-Ing. Dr. techn. Max John

Failure scenarios involving tunnel collapse usually occur due to unexpected faults at the face because the support was not designed for this or was underestimated. Failure of the support behind the working face occurs less frequently and can have various causes. Three examples are used to show which stress redistribution mechanisms can lead to failure of the rock support. Using the example of the Arlberg road tunnel, the failure during bench excavation showed that fracture processes exaggerate and due to developing of extended fracture planes trigger a failure of the support. The transfer of high rock stresses to deeper areas prevented the collapse of the cavity in accordance with what Kastner called the protection zone. The example of the Landrückentunnel showed that the excavation of the bench including a heading invert arch with a distance of just 6 m to the ring closure can trigger a total failure of the tunnel. The example of the cavern of the crossover at the Channel Tunnel showed which influences, such as redistribution of the pore water pressure and the longitudinal load-bearing effect of the support, can result in an overloading of the shotcrete structure.

巷道坍塌的破坏情况通常是由于工作面的意外故障而发生的,因为支护的设计没有考虑到这一点或低估了这一点。工作面后方支架破坏的发生频率较低,可能有多种原因。通过三个实例说明应力重分布机制可导致岩石支护的破坏。以Arlberg公路隧道为例,分析了台阶开挖时的破坏过程,结果表明:台阶开挖过程中,由于裂缝面扩展而导致支护破坏,破坏过程扩大。根据卡斯特纳所说的保护区,高岩石应力向更深区域的转移阻止了洞穴的坍塌。landr隧道的例子表明,在距离环形合闸仅6米的地方开挖包括头拱的拱座,就会引发隧道的完全破坏。英吉利海峡隧道跨界洞室的实例表明,孔隙水压力的重新分布和支护的纵向承重效应等因素都可能导致喷射混凝土结构的超载。
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引用次数: 0
Geomechanics and Tunnelling news Geomechanics and Tunnelling 6/2025 地质力学与隧道工程新闻地质力学与隧道工程6/2025
Q4 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2025-11-11 DOI: 10.1002/geot.70056
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引用次数: 0
Challenges and new developments in hard rock tunnelling in Norway – Case studies 挪威硬岩隧道掘进的挑战与新发展-个案研究
Q4 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2025-11-11 DOI: 10.1002/geot.70030
Jorge Terron-Almenara, Karl Gunnar Holter

Hard rock conditions in Norway have posed great opportunities and advantages for the design and construction of many tunnel kilometres for many decades, which has normally been accompanied by technological developments. During the latest decades, however, limited research and advancements of practical significance have been implemented in support strategies. This primarily affects the extensive – and unquestioned – use of empirical rock mass classification systems for permanent rock support design in poor rock mass conditions, and the traditional use of uneconomic inner concrete liners to keep sheet waterproofing membranes in place in traffic tunnels affected by water seepages. Based on recently published research work carried out at NTNU Norway and the study of real tunnel construction sites of hard rock tunnels, the authors present in this article some of the main insights about modern and improved support design and waterproofing strategies aiming at economic and optimal support solutions. The presented approaches essentially combine the use of hybrid support design strategies and the implementation of sprayed concrete and pre-excavation grouting as a measure to reduce water leakage, hence increasing concrete durability and support performance. The combined use of such hybrid approach for support design and the substitution of cast concrete lining by high-quality sprayed concrete and rock mass grouting has provided satisfactory and optimised results.

挪威的硬岩条件为几十年来许多隧道公里的设计和建造提供了巨大的机会和优势,这通常伴随着技术的发展。然而,近几十年来,在支持战略方面的研究和具有实际意义的进展有限。这主要影响了在恶劣的岩体条件下广泛且毫无疑问地使用经验岩体分类系统进行永久岩石支护设计,以及在受渗水影响的交通隧道中传统地使用不经济的内部混凝土衬垫来保持片状防水膜。基于挪威理工大学最近发表的研究工作和对硬岩隧道实际施工现场的研究,作者在本文中提出了一些关于现代和改进的支护设计和防水策略的主要见解,旨在实现经济和最佳的支护解决方案。所提出的方法基本上结合了混合支护设计策略的使用和喷射混凝土和开挖前灌浆的实施,作为减少漏水的措施,从而提高混凝土的耐久性和支护性能。采用这种混合方法进行支护设计,并用高质量喷射混凝土和岩体注浆代替现浇混凝土衬砌,取得了满意的优化效果。
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引用次数: 0
Challenges related to face stability of EPB shield machines and the influence of the supporting medium on reuse of the excavation material EPB盾构机工作面稳定性挑战及支护介质对开挖材料再利用的影响
Q4 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2025-11-11 DOI: 10.1002/geot.70048
Prof. Dr.-Ing. Christoph Budach, Prof. Dr.-Ing. Markus Thewes

When using Earth Pressure Balance Shields in soft soil, the soil is used to support the tunnel face and the in-situ or excavated soil, which usually does not have sufficient properties to support the tunnel face, is conditioned. For example, suspensions are used in fine-grained soils, tenside foams in mixed-grained soils or tenside foams with polymer additives and fine material suspensions in coarse-grained soils, so that adequate support of the tunnel face with the conditioned soil is possible. Soil conditioning changes various geotechnical properties such as the water permeability and the density of the supporting medium and, if necessary, environmental parameters. The process-specific changes to the geotechnical properties of the supporting medium can have partly a strong influence on the reuse of the excavated soil when used as a construction material or recyclate. This article therefore deals with the challenges to the face stability of Earth Pressure Balance Shields and the influence of the supporting medium on its reuse with regard to the geotechnical properties.

在软土中使用土压平衡盾构时,通常是用土来支撑隧道工作面,而就地或开挖的土通常没有足够的性能来支撑隧道工作面。例如,在细颗粒土壤中使用悬浮液,在混合颗粒土壤中使用张力泡沫,或者在粗颗粒土壤中使用含有聚合物添加剂的张力泡沫和细材料悬浮液,这样就可以用条件土壤充分支撑隧道工作面。土壤调节会改变各种岩土特性,如透水性和支撑介质的密度,必要时还会改变环境参数。支撑介质的岩土力学特性在特定过程中的变化,在一定程度上对挖掘出的土壤在用作建筑材料或回收利用时的再利用产生强烈影响。本文就土压平衡盾构面稳定性所面临的挑战以及支护介质对其重复使用的岩土力学特性的影响进行了探讨。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of water ingress and tunnelling operations on ground deformations: Insights from the Uma Oya Multi-Purpose Development Project 进水和隧道作业对地面变形的影响:来自Uma Oya多功能开发项目的见解
Q4 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2025-11-11 DOI: 10.1002/geot.70032
Prof. Dr. Gabriel Walton, Dr. Ing. Helmut Wannenmacher

The Uma Oya Multipurpose Development Project (UOMDP) in Sri Lanka provides a comprehensive case study on the interactions between tunnel excavation, groundwater ingress and ground deformations. During the construction of a 15 km headrace tunnel using a double shield tunnel boring machine (DS-TBM), unexpected groundwater inflows exceeding 290 L/s above background triggered extensive aquifer drawdown, surface settlements up to 40 cm and drying of over 340 domestic wells across a 15 km2 area. Remote sensing, particularly persistent scatterer InSAR, helped characterise the spatial and temporal evolution of settlements. These phenomena were attributed mainly to the complex geological conditions, characterised by high-grade metamorphic rocks, intensely fractured zones and fault structures that enable rapid water migration. Despite extensive post-excavation grouting, long-term subsidence persisted, underscoring the need for proactive management of hydrogeological conditions. Comparisons with international case studies, such as the Gotthard Base Tunnel, reinforce the necessity of integrated water management and risk mitigation in tunnel projects that traverse fractured rock masses.

斯里兰卡的Uma Oya多功能开发项目(UOMDP)为隧道开挖、地下水进入和地面变形之间的相互作用提供了一个全面的案例研究。在使用双盾隧道掘进机(DS-TBM)建造一条15公里长的引水隧道期间,出乎意料的地下水流入超过本底290升/秒,引发了广泛的含水层下降,地表沉降高达40厘米,并导致15平方公里范围内340多口家庭水井干涸。遥感,特别是持续散射体InSAR,帮助描述了住区空间和时间演变的特征。这些现象主要是由于复杂的地质条件,其特征是高变质岩,强烈的断裂带和断裂构造使水能够快速运移。尽管开挖后进行了大量的注浆,但长期的沉降仍然存在,这强调了对水文地质条件进行主动管理的必要性。与圣哥达基线隧道等国际案例研究的比较,强调了在穿越裂隙岩体的隧道项目中进行综合水管理和降低风险的必要性。
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引用次数: 0
Current experiences in the design and construction of pressure tunnels and shafts 目前在压力隧道和竖井的设计和施工经验
Q4 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2025-10-07 DOI: 10.1002/geot.70026
Dipl. Ing. Sebastian Pausz, Dr. Dipl. Ing. Miroslav Marence, Dipl. Ing. Armin Nocker B.Sc., Dr. Dipl. Ing. Mathias Smesnik, Dipl. Ing. Zoran Radic

Hydrotechnical power waterways in the form of pressurized tunnels and shafts pose geotechnical requirements on the surrounding underground, which vary significantly from those of other infrastructure tunnels, like traffic or mining tunnels. The excavation process and the primary support design requirements of traffic and hydrotechnical tunnels are the same. Nevertheless, the structural design aspects of the final (inner) lining of these two tunnel types are different and misunderstanding of these differences is often the reason for problems occurring in operation. Although the technical issues related to the subject were correctly identified and solved decades ago, it appears that some of the basic technical aspects are not addressed correctly in the design and execution of some hydrotechnical tunnels today. This fact was the main motivation of the authors to summarize current experiences of design and construction in hydropower projects worldwide. The primary focus is placed on the technical requirements for the final hydraulic lining of tunnels and shafts. For unlined and shotcrete lined tunnels, the design is mostly performed by classification systems. The limitations and risks of this approach are explained. For concrete lined and steel lined tunnels and shafts, current experiences and preconditions for the state-of-the-art design approaches are discussed.

高压隧道和竖井形式的水力发电水道对周围的地下提出了岩土工程要求,这与其他基础设施隧道(如交通或采矿隧道)的要求有很大不同。交通隧道和水工隧道的开挖过程和主要支护设计要求是相同的。然而,这两种隧道类型的末(内)衬砌的结构设计方面是不同的,对这些差异的误解往往是运行中出现问题的原因。虽然与该主题有关的技术问题在几十年前就得到了正确的识别和解决,但在今天一些水工隧道的设计和施工中,似乎没有正确地解决一些基本的技术问题。这一事实是作者总结当前世界水电工程设计与施工经验的主要动机。主要重点放在隧道和竖井的最终水力衬砌的技术要求上。对于无衬砌和喷射混凝土衬砌隧道,设计大多采用分级系统。解释了这种方法的局限性和风险。对于混凝土衬砌和钢衬砌的隧道和竖井,讨论了目前的经验和最先进的设计方法的前提条件。
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引用次数: 0
Generational gaps in geotechnics? A transalpine perspective 岩土工程的代沟?跨高山视角
Q4 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2025-10-07 DOI: 10.1002/geot.70017
Dipl.-Ing. Dr.techn. Alexander Kluckner BSc., Dr.techn. Georg H. Erharter, DDipl.-Ing. Dr.techn. Andreas-Nizar Granitzer, Bettina Mair BA MA, Dr. Suzanne Lacasse

Geotechnical engineering is a challenging profession and offers exciting working opportunities. However, in recent years, it struggled to attract young talents. While shifting life and work values are frequently given as contributing factors, empirical evidence to support this claim remains scarce. In view of that, an international online survey was conducted from March to July 2025 to explore generational differences in experiences, beliefs, needs, and goals of members of the applied geo-community. The survey targeted professionals of all ages who study or work in geotechnics or other applied geo-related disciplines. This article focuses on the responses from Austria, Germany, and Switzerland. The results do not suggest that there is a consistent generational gap. While there are certain differences about some topics (e.g., conflicts with younger generations rather revolve around work-life balance and priorities but with older generations more around authority and decision-making), many questions show strong agreement between generations (e.g., finding meaning and fulfilment in the job is more important than income). The results serve as a foundation for increasing the profession's attractiveness, offer valuable insights into intergenerational biases, and lay the groundwork for improved collaboration in the workplace.

岩土工程是一个具有挑战性的专业,提供令人兴奋的工作机会。然而,近年来,它难以吸引年轻人才。虽然生活和工作价值观的转变经常被认为是促成因素,但支持这一说法的经验证据仍然很少。有鉴于此,我们于2025年3月至7月进行了一项国际在线调查,以探讨应用地理社区成员在经历、信仰、需求和目标方面的代际差异。这项调查的对象是在岩土工程或其他应用岩土相关学科学习或工作的所有年龄段的专业人士。本文主要关注奥地利、德国和瑞士的回应。研究结果并不表明存在一致的代沟。虽然在一些话题上存在一定的差异(例如,与年轻一代的冲突更多地围绕着工作与生活的平衡和优先事项,而与老一辈的冲突更多地围绕着权力和决策),但许多问题显示出几代人之间的强烈共识(例如,在工作中找到意义和成就感比收入更重要)。研究结果为提高职业吸引力奠定了基础,为研究代际偏见提供了有价值的见解,并为改善工作场所的合作奠定了基础。
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引用次数: 0
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Geomechanik und Tunnelbau
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