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Uma nova regra monetária. Analisando o papel do BNDES (A New Monetary Rule: Analyzing the BNDES Role) Uma nova regra monetária。一种新的货币规则:分析BNDES的作用
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-10-03 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3704532
P. I. Salvador
Portuguese abstract: O BNDES durante mais de 60 anos foi o responsavel principal pelo financiamento de projetos de longo prazo. Nascido da extinta CMBEU, o Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Economico (ainda sem o S de sustentavel) tinha como tarefa promover liquidez para investimentos estrategicos em um Brasil com baixa eficiencia e em um mercado de credito privado incipiente. O objetivo desta monografia e promover a discussao de uma mudanca importante no regime de emprestimos do BNDES. A antiga TJLP utilizada era uma regra que impunha ao Tesouro Nacional, emprestador final do BNDES, o risco inflacionario, uma vez que utilizada as metas inflacionarias passadas para o calculo da taxa futura. Com isso, o BNDES nao apenas emprestava a taxa de juros reais zeradas, como assumia para si o risco monetario, o que promoveu durante todo o periodo de sua existencia subsidios no montante atualizado de 780 bilhoes de reais, segundo os dados do BNDES aberto. Esse montante financiaria novos investimentos, gerando emprego, renda e crescimento economico, e, portanto, ha justificativa teorica. Mas como parte do subsidio nao e incorporado nas estatisticas oficiais, o aumento da liquidez anual da ordem de 250 bilhoes de reais em media anual, fez com que grande parte do esforco do controle inflacionario, segundo nosso modelo teorico, viesse da atuacao do BNDES. Assim, na medida em que em 2016 foi promulgada uma medida que alteraria para sempre a forma de precificacao dos juros, com a nova TLP que utiliza o que em economia chamamos de expectativas racionais, usando a inflacao passada como indexador do custo dos emprestimos. Essa operacao reduziu o volume de novos emprestimos em 70%, bem como a pressao de aumento do M1 (DAV). Analisando a causalidade entre o volume de credito do BNDES, o volume de credito do Mercado, nivel de investimento privado e a Inflacao, percebe-se que a taxa SELIC pode reduzir seu valor para niveis historicamente mais baixos, o que reduziu os desembolsos do Tesouro Nacional com a divida, na ordem de 260 bilhoes de reais em 2019 e 145 em 2020. English abstract:The BNDES for more than 60 years was primarily responsible for financing long-term projects. Born from the defunct CMBEU, the National Bank for Economic Development (still without a sustainable S) had the task of promoting liquidity for strategic investments in a Brazil with low efficiency and in an incipient private credit market. The purpose of this monograph is to promote the discussion of an important change in the BNDES 'loan regime. The old TJLP used was a rule that imposed on the National Treasury, the BNDES 'final lender, the inflationary risk, since the past inflationary targets were used to calculate the future rate. With this, the BNDES not only lent the zero interest rate, but also assumed the monetary risk, which promoted subsidies in the updated amount of 780 billion reais, according to data from the open BNDES. This amount would finance new investments, generating employme
葡萄牙摘要:60多年来,BNDES一直是长期项目融资的主要负责人。国家经济发展银行(Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Economico)诞生于已不复存在的CMBEU,其任务是在效率低下和私人信贷市场刚刚起步的巴西,为战略投资提供流动性。本专论的目的是促进对BNDES贷款制度重大变化的讨论。使用的旧TJLP是一项规则,将通胀风险强加给BNDES的最终贷款人国库,因为它使用过去的通胀目标来计算未来利率。因此,BNDES不仅以零实际利率贷款,而且还承担货币风险,根据BNDES aberto的数据,在其存在的整个期间,这促进了780亿雷亚尔的更新补贴。这一数额将为新的投资提供资金,创造就业、收入和经济增长,因此在理论上是合理的。但由于补贴的一部分没有纳入官方统计,每年平均流动性增加2500亿雷亚尔,根据我们的理论模型,通货膨胀控制的大部分努力来自BNDES的行动。因此,2016年颁布了一项措施,将永远改变利率定价的形式,新的TLP使用经济学中所谓的理性预期,使用过去的通胀作为贷款成本指数。这一操作使新贷款数量减少了70%,并降低了M1 (DAV)的上行压力。分析之间的联系信用卡的时候卷信用卡市场,私人投资和通货膨胀水平,看得出来,SELIC率可以降低价值的历史最低水平,减少国家财政支出和债务,260年的2019年和145年的2020年。英语文摘:BNDES超过60年的出现主要负责融资的长期项目。国家经济发展银行(仍然没有一个可持续的银行)的任务是促进流动性,以便在巴西进行战略投资,巴西效率低,而且还处于早期的私人信贷市场。这个论文的目的是促进国家发展中的一个重要变化的讨论贷款安排。旧TJLP使用出现的规则,imposed on The国家宝藏,BNDES的最后贷款人,inflationary风险,因为过去inflationary目标被用来估计未来的利率。因此,BNDES不仅降低了零利率,而且还承担了货币风险,根据公开BNDES的数据,这促进了780亿雷亚尔的更新补贴。这一数额将为新的投资提供资金,创造就业、收入和经济增长,因此理论上是合理的。但是,由于部分补贴没有纳入官方统计,年流动性的增加,每年平均增加2500亿雷亚尔,根据我们的理论模型,很大一部分通货膨胀控制工作是由国家发展银行造成的。因此,2016年制定了一项措施,将永远改变利率定价的形式,新的TLP使用了我们在经济学中所说的理性预期,使用过去的通胀作为贷款成本的指数。这一操作使新贷款的数量减少了70%,同时增加了M1 (DAV)的压力。分析之间的causality BNDES的信贷市场信用的卷卷,私人投资和通胀的水平,它是明确的,SELIC率可能降低其价值historically低水平,减少国家财政disbursements与债务的实际订单的260欧元在2020年2019年和145年。
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引用次数: 0
COVID-19 Pandemic and Financial Well-Being: Insights from Nigerian Households 2019冠状病毒病大流行与财务福祉:来自尼日利亚家庭的见解
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-06-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3620096
Risikat Oladoyin S. Dauda, O. Akinleye, O. Iwegub, O. Popogbe
This study assesses the level of awareness of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and the extent of the government’s preparedness in Nigeria. It examines the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the income level of households in Nigeria, the prices of goods and services as well as financial resilience of households. This is done with a view to providing appropriate interventions for vulnerable households. The study employs survey methodology conducted in April 2020. The random survey sample was obtained through the use of questionnaires administered online. The population of this study is made up of all the households who are resident in Nigeria and must have stayed within the country at least since the past six months; this is to ensure that the members of the population stayed in Nigeria at least three months before the outbreak of the pandemic and periods during the pandemic. The survey results showed that income declined significantly for almost half of household participants. Although 41.7% of household participants have income for precautionary motive which is set aside in the advent of emergency, a significant majority indicated that such emergency funds decreased significantly during the lockdown. Majority of the respondents affirm that the crisis will likely have an adverse effect of the coronavirus pandemic on their financial and economic well-being.
本研究评估了尼日利亚对2019冠状病毒病(COVID-19)大流行的认识水平和政府的准备程度。报告考察了2019冠状病毒病大流行对尼日利亚家庭收入水平、商品和服务价格以及家庭财务抵御能力的影响。这样做的目的是为弱势家庭提供适当的干预措施。该研究采用了2020年4月进行的调查方法。随机调查样本是通过使用在线调查问卷获得的。本研究的人口由居住在尼日利亚的所有家庭组成,并且必须至少自过去六个月以来一直在该国居住;这是为了确保人口成员在大流行病爆发之前和大流行病期间至少在尼日利亚停留三个月。调查结果显示,近一半的家庭参与者的收入大幅下降。虽然41.7%的家庭参与者有用于预防的收入,这些收入是在紧急情况发生时预留的,但绝大多数人表示,在封锁期间,这种应急资金大幅减少。大多数受访者确认,这场危机可能会对冠状病毒大流行对他们的财务和经济福祉产生不利影响。
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引用次数: 4
India’s COVID-19 Episode: Resilience, Response, Impact and Lessons 印度的COVID-19事件:韧性、应对、影响和教训
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-04-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3879406
Dibyasree Ganguly, Sheuli Misra, Srinivas Goli
Despite the commonality of loss of lives, every pandemic has played a role in shaping the socio-economic and public health outcomes depending on the nature and the magnitude of the outbreak. In this study, we have attempted to make a preliminary assessment of COVID-19 impact on India and commented on the country’s resilience, response, impact and draw the lessons for the future. Although lockdown was necessary to stop the transmission, is showing and will show a greater impact on all spheres of human life considering the country’s poor resilient socio-economic institutions. Our concurrent assessment in the middle of the outbreak predicts that the socio-economic, demographic and health costs in India would be much higher than developed countries. Initiation of timely action from the very beginning (when the first case reported in Kerala) could have plummeted the potential transmission in every corner of the country to a large extent and could have avoided socio-economic crises that presently surfaced in the country. The study provides a strong message for initiating sector-specific measures alongside relief packages to reduce the damage not only for now but also to build a resilient system for socioeconomically vulnerable groups, health care services, and education infrastructure to face future pandemics. Otherwise, the pandemic like this can cost more.
尽管生命损失具有共性,但每次大流行病都在形成社会经济和公共卫生结果方面发挥了作用,具体取决于疫情的性质和规模。在本研究中,我们试图对COVID-19对印度的影响进行初步评估,并对该国的抵御能力、应对措施、影响进行评论,并为未来吸取教训。尽管封锁对阻止传播是必要的,但考虑到该国缺乏韧性的社会经济机构,封锁正在并将对人类生活的各个领域产生更大的影响。我们在疫情爆发期间进行的同时评估预测,印度的社会经济、人口和卫生成本将远远高于发达国家。从一开始(当喀拉拉邦报告第一例病例时)就采取及时行动,本可在很大程度上降低该国每个角落的潜在传播,并可避免该国目前出现的社会经济危机。该研究提供了一个强有力的信息,即在采取救援方案的同时,启动针对特定部门的措施,不仅可以减轻目前的损害,还可以为社会经济弱势群体、卫生保健服务和教育基础设施建立一个有弹性的系统,以应对未来的流行病。否则,像这样的大流行可能会造成更多损失。
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引用次数: 14
The Struggle Toward Macroeconomic Stability: An Analytical Essay 走向宏观经济稳定的斗争:一篇分析论文
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3481722
A. Razin
This essay offers an economic-history perspective of the long struggle toward macroeconomic stability in Israel. The purpose is to provide a broad analytical overview of major exogenous shocks and shifts in macroeconomic policy and institutions in Israel from the 1977–85 great inflation to the global financial crisis, and the effects of those shifts on long-term growth, inflation, the business cycle, the flattening of the Phillips curve, and other related economic developments. The paper addresses three main topics. The first one is the political economics of the hyperinflation crisis, its crushing by a national-unity coalition, and its impact on subsequent reform of financial and monetary institutions. Inflation’s history points to the weak foundation of the Modern Monetary Theory, or MMT, which argues that a country borrowing in its own currency can finance fiscal stimulus by printing money in a persistent way. Second is the impact of globalization on economic activity, inflation, and the Phillips curve during the “great Moderation” period. The third is Israel’s relatively robust performance during the 2008 global crisis, the role of the financial sector stance, and the central bank foreign exchange market intervention policies.
这篇文章提供了一个经济历史的角度来看长期斗争的宏观经济稳定在以色列。本文的目的是对以色列从1977 - 1985年大通货膨胀到全球金融危机期间宏观经济政策和制度的主要外生冲击和转变,以及这些转变对长期增长、通货膨胀、商业周期、菲利普斯曲线趋平和其他相关经济发展的影响进行广泛的分析概述。本文主要论述了三个主题。第一个是恶性通货膨胀危机的政治经济学,它被全国统一联盟粉碎,并对随后的金融和货币机构改革产生影响。通货膨胀的历史表明,现代货币理论(Modern Monetary Theory, MMT)的基础很薄弱。该理论认为,一个借入本国货币的国家可以通过持续印钞来为财政刺激提供资金。其次是“大缓和”时期全球化对经济活动、通货膨胀和菲利普斯曲线的影响。第三是以色列在2008年全球危机期间相对稳健的表现、金融部门的立场以及央行外汇市场干预政策的作用。
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引用次数: 1
India and Israel: Value Addition to Human Resources Through Shared Educational Assets 印度和以色列:通过共享教育资产实现人力资源增值
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2018-08-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3237061
Kartik Hegadekatti
India and Israel officially setup diplomatic relations in 1992. Since then they have collaborated on a host of development issues like agriculture, space research, information Technology etc. There has also been a large component of people-to-people interaction.Both nations have a large pool of technically sound man power. Yet, the strengths of their respective technical human resources are not the same. Israel has a certain niche in the technical field, India has another. The idea is to leverage the strengths of both nations and synergize them. This paper proposes institutionalizing Indo-Israeli collaboration in technical areas by opening an IIT in Israel and a Technion University campus in India. Both Indian and Israeli students will graduate together from both these Institutions. This paper discusses the various aspects of such collaboration.
印度和以色列于1992年正式建立外交关系。从那时起,他们在农业、空间研究、信息技术等一系列发展问题上进行了合作。人与人之间的交流也占很大比重。这两个国家都有大量技术上健全的人力资源。然而,他们各自的技术人力资源的优势是不一样的。以色列在技术领域有一定的优势,印度也有。我们的想法是利用两国的优势,并将它们协同起来。本文建议通过在以色列开设IIT和在印度开设以色列理工大学校园,使印以在技术领域的合作制度化。印度和以色列的学生将同时从这两所学校毕业。本文讨论了这种合作的各个方面。
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引用次数: 0
Selected Aspects of Innovation Strategies In The Regions – Case of Lower Silesian Region 区域创新战略的选择——以下西里西亚地区为例
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2017-06-14 DOI: 10.5817/CZ.MUNI.P210-8587-2017-30
Dorota Bednarska-Olejniczak, J. Olejniczak
The aim of this article is to discuss the essence and purposefulness of such strategy on the example of the "Regional Innovation Strategy for Lower Silesia Voivodship (region) for the years 2011-2020" and to analyze the changes of the selected indicators that characterize the level of innovation of the region in the period of strategy implementation (in 2006-2015). Three indicators were selected for the analysis - expenditure on R&D, percentage of employees in the research and development sector and percentage of companies that implemented innovations in the studied period. In the case of Lower Silesia Voivodship, based on the indicators selected to illustrate the changes in the level of innovativeness of this region, their high diversity may be concluded. In the case of R&D, there’s a visible tendency (which is different in the scale of entire country) to concentrate activities in the higher education sector - both in terms of the scale of investment and the share of employment. In the face of the unfavourable trends in the scale of entire country, which were initiated by the economic crisis, Lower Silesia has followed a similar path of the drop in innovative activity of the companies.
本文旨在以“2011-2020年下西里西亚省(地区)区域创新战略”为例,讨论该战略的本质和目的,并分析该战略实施期间(2006-2015年)表征该地区创新水平的选定指标的变化。我们选择了三个指标进行分析——研发支出、研发部门员工比例和研究期间实施创新的公司比例。就下西里西亚省而言,根据所选择的指标来说明该地区创新水平的变化,可以得出其高度多样性的结论。就研发而言,有一种明显的趋势(在整个国家的规模上有所不同),即将活动集中在高等教育部门——无论是从投资规模还是就业份额来看。面对由经济危机引发的整个国家规模的不利趋势,下西里西亚也遵循了公司创新活动下降的类似路径。
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引用次数: 0
Media Habit and Socio-economic Status of the Print Journalists of Jaipur, Rajasthan, IN 印度拉贾斯坦邦斋浦尔印刷记者的媒体习惯与社会经济地位
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2015-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3823670
N. Khattri
Journalists are not only storyteller but also they are the watchdog of the society for different dimensions. In the era of globalization when everything is changing very fast, the status of all human being is also changing with the same pace, whereas the status of Journalists in India especially in Rajasthan are stagnant and comparatively not standard. The paper tries to find out the socio- economic status of the Print Journalist of Jaipur. The researcher also wants to study the role of socio-economic status on their profession through Media habit. The Media habits and Socio-economic backgrounds of the Journalists are identified by Questionnaire especially designed for this purpose. Data processing was done with the help of statistical tools and some manual calculations. It is recommended through this paper that the actions should be taken by the Print Media agencies to improve the Socio-economic of the Print Journalists of Jaipur. Government of Rajasthan should take appropriate measures in this direction. And finally the Journalist should be highly skilled to cover their beats and related stories with due compassion and sincerity.
新闻工作者不仅是讲故事的人,也是社会不同层面的监督者。在全球化时代,一切都在快速变化,所有人的地位也在以同样的速度变化,而在印度,特别是拉贾斯坦邦,记者的地位是停滞的,相对不规范。本文试图了解斋浦尔报刊记者的社会经济地位。研究人员还想通过媒体习惯来研究社会经济地位对他们职业的作用。记者的媒体习惯和社会经济背景是通过专门为此目的设计的问卷来确定的。数据处理是借助统计工具和一些人工计算完成的。本文建议斋浦尔纸媒机构应采取措施,改善斋浦尔纸媒记者的社会经济状况。拉贾斯坦邦政府应该朝这个方向采取适当措施。最后,记者应该有很高的技巧,以应有的同情和真诚来报道他们的节奏和相关的故事。
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引用次数: 0
A Peek into the Governor’s Chamber: The Israeli Case 窥探总督办公室:以色列案例
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2002-08-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.349924
R. Melnick
The paper analyzes the rules used by the Bank of Israel (BoI) to set the interest rate from mid-1993 till the end of 2001, after relative price stability had been achieved. Our approach follows the analytical framework developed since the influential contribution of Taylor (1993). We compare three policy type rules: the classic Taylor type, the interest rate parity type and the domestic real interest rate type. We give a positive answer to the question; can the path of the interest rate in Israel be explained by a well-defined policy rule? And conclude that the BoI followed a strict, forward-looking rule with smoothing based on interest rate parity considerations, including strong reaction to exchange-rate shocks. The success of reducing inflation by applying extremely tight monetary policy is exemplified in the Israeli case although our analysis shows that the disinflation process was not fully completed in the sample period, in the sense that the rate of interest did not return to a steady state level consistent with low inflation and low real rates of interest.
本文分析了以色列银行(BoI)从1993年中期到2001年底在相对价格稳定之后设定利率的规则。我们的方法遵循自Taylor(1993)有影响力的贡献以来发展起来的分析框架。我们比较了三种政策类型规则:经典泰勒型、利率平价型和国内实际利率型。我们对这个问题给出肯定的回答;以色列的利率走势可以用一个明确的政策规则来解释吗?并得出结论,欧洲央行投资委员会遵循了一项严格的前瞻性规则,该规则基于利率平价考虑,包括对汇率冲击的强烈反应。通过实施极端紧缩的货币政策来降低通货膨胀的成功在以色列的案例中得到了例证,尽管我们的分析表明,在样本期间,反通货膨胀过程没有完全完成,从某种意义上说,利率没有回到与低通货膨胀和低实际利率一致的稳定状态。
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引用次数: 7
期刊
Israel Economic Review
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