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From Stabilization to Marketization: The Political Economy of Reforms in Azerbaijan 从稳定到市场化:阿塞拜疆改革的政治经济学
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2008-04-01 DOI: 10.3200/DEMO.16.2.163-182
Fuad B. Aliyev
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)IntroductionSince gaining its independence in 1991, Azerbaijan has started to implement marketoriented reform policies. The transition to the new political-economic order has not been smooth, but instead accompanied by political cataclysms and military conflicts. The World Bank classified Azerbaijan as a war-torn country with a semidemocratic political regime.1The literature on the political economy of transition has grown considerably in the last decade because of the reality of the problem and uncertainty about the future of market reforms throughout the former Soviet states. Various concepts of interconnection between politics and economic reforms have been developed and regional and country explanations of the transition of post-Communist countries.The first question I discuss in this article is: What does "market reform" mean? Because of Shafiqul Islam's clear explanation of the market-reform process, I will follow his theory, which claims there are four interlocking wheels in the transition vehicle: macroeconomic stabilization, liberalization, privatization of the economy, and development of marketsupporting institutional infrastructure.2 The last three wheels he grouped together under the label of "marketization." He also discusses other concepts and theories of political economy of post-Communist transition.However, I focus on how political changes have affected the reform process in Azerbaijan during transition. The trajectory of the post-Communist transition in Azerbaijan can be roughly divided into three stages: (1) first years of independence (1991-94), the state of nature; (2) powerful autocratic regime and stabilization (1994-2003), the state of Heydar Aliyev; and (3) Heydar Aliyev's death and the election of his son Ýlham Aliyev as the new president (post-2003), the post-Heydar Aliyev state. I review all three stages of political development in Azerbaijan and their effects on market reforms, particularly the marketization process. Measures of nominal political stability and market reforms are obtained using the mix of qualitative and quantitative methods and then analyzed. In the end, I show how the centralization of power was helpful in one dimension of reforms-stabilization-but has been an impediment for the other dimension-marketization. Moreover, this article claims that once centralized, it is extremely difficult for a political-economic system in transition to undergo decentralization.Finally, I propose and discuss further public policy steps and examine the "three I's" approach to addressing issues of a post-Communist transition.The Political Economy of Post-Communist TransitionFirst, we must define "market reform" and "transition." According to Adam Przeworski, market-oriented reforms are reforms that aim "to organize an economy that rationally allocates resources and in which the state is financially solvent."3 Islam highlights four "interlocking wheels" of market-oriented reforms:
(ProQuest:……表示省略公式。)自1991年获得独立以来,阿塞拜疆开始实施以市场为导向的改革政策。向新的政治经济秩序的过渡并不顺利,而是伴随着政治灾难和军事冲突。世界银行将阿塞拜疆归类为一个半民主政体的饱受战争蹂躏的国家。1 .在过去十年中,由于这个问题的现实和前苏联国家市场改革未来的不确定性,关于转型政治经济学的文献有了相当大的增长。政治和经济改革之间相互联系的各种概念已经发展起来,并对后共产主义国家的过渡进行了区域和国家解释。我在这篇文章中讨论的第一个问题是:什么是“市场改革”?由于Shafiqul Islam对市场改革过程的明确解释,我将遵循他的理论,他认为在转型过程中有四个连锁的轮子:宏观经济稳定、自由化、经济私有化和市场支持机构基础设施的发展他把后三个轮子放在一起,贴上了“市场化”的标签。他还讨论了后共产主义转型政治经济学的其他概念和理论。然而,我关注的是政治变化如何影响过渡时期阿塞拜疆的改革进程。阿塞拜疆后共产主义过渡的轨迹大致可以分为三个阶段:(1)独立的最初几年(1991- 1994年),自然状态;(2)强大的独裁政权与稳定(1994-2003),盖达尔·阿利耶夫国家;(3)盖达尔·阿利耶夫的死亡和他的儿子Ýlham阿利耶夫当选为新总统(2003年后),后盖达尔·阿利耶夫国家。我回顾阿塞拜疆政治发展的所有三个阶段及其对市场改革,特别是市场化进程的影响。名义上的政治稳定和市场改革的措施是使用定性和定量方法的混合,然后分析。最后,我展示了权力的集中如何在改革的一个维度——稳定——上有所帮助,但在另一个维度——市场化——上却成了障碍。此外,本文声称,一旦集中,过渡中的政治经济制度就极难进行分权。最后,我提出并讨论了进一步的公共政策步骤,并研究了解决后共产主义过渡问题的“三个我”方法。后共产主义转型的政治经济学首先,我们必须定义“市场改革”和“转型”。根据Adam Przeworski的说法,市场导向的改革旨在“组织一个合理分配资源的经济,并使国家在财政上有偿付能力”。伊斯兰强调了市场导向改革的四个“环环相扣的轮子”:宏观经济稳定、自由化、私有化和体制改革。琼·纳尔逊研究了一个前所未有的“经济和政治同步转型”的案例,这是过渡改革的特征所有新生国家都必须经历这种双重转变,但每个国家都选择了不同的政策,并产生了不同的结果。简而言之,在财富分配或多或少平等、社会内部政治巩固的国家,经济改革取得了成功。这些问题与过渡经验中事前和事后政治限制的作用有关。如果前者涉及改革的可行性和可接受性,后者则是指在做出决定并观察到结果后出现反弹和逆转的危险乔尔·赫尔曼认为,虽然后共产主义国家没有受到标准的事前和事后改革限制,但“它们面临着同样困难的挑战,这些挑战来自一个意想不到的来源”;政治障碍是最具挑战性的。…
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引用次数: 5
Can the Memory of a Historical Uprising Reduce Transitional Uncertainty?: A Comparative Study of Hungary and the Former Soviet Union 历史起义的记忆能减少过渡时期的不确定性吗?:匈牙利与前苏联比较研究
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2008-04-01 DOI: 10.3200/DEMO.16.2.183-200
Gergana Yankova
Abstract: The author explores how incumbents form their preferences when regime types change. The author juxtaposes the perceptions of the Hungarian and the Soviet Communist Party hard-liners during the transition from Communism in 1989-91. During this time, the memory of a historical uprising reduced the incumbents' misperceptions about their popular legitimacy via two mechanisms. First, historical memory functioned as a "public tolerance indicator" because it brought the opposition together and demonstrated the true distribution of political support. Second, the memory of a past uprising served as a "conservative reformer" when it opened up internal party debate about the legitimacy of the regime. The author's argument contributes to the scarce literature on actors' preferences formation under conditions of transitional uncertainty. It also provides a useful analytical bridge between actor-oriented and system-centered approaches to democratization. Keywords: historical memory, Hungary, political legitimacy, post-Communist transition, public opinion, Russia ********** Political actors form their preferences on the basis of their perceptions about their public support. As the Soviet Union began to dissolve in 1989, however, the true extent of the public support for the Communist incumbents in satellite states such as Hungary was unknown because Communist regimes did not hold contested elections. Transitional uncertainty also arose from the undefined institutional rules, the fluid party structure and the unknown reaction of the Soviet Union. Incumbents dealt with uncertainty in different ways. Some party members underestimated the importance and extent of their political legitimacy. These hard-liners stubbornly clung to the old order. Other Communist leaders appreciated the true scale of societal changes, along with the limitations of their power, early on. These politicians took timely steps to democratize and compromise with the opposition. The variance of the incumbents' preferences constitutes a puzzle. Earlier scholarship on democratic transitions has generally treated perceptions as exogenous, leaving the reasons for the disaccord largely unexamined. This study elucidates the development of actors' preferences during transitional periods. The historical memory of a failed antiregime uprising can reduce the incumbents' uncertainty about their political legitimacy by providing those in power with a barometer of public dissatisfaction. Two mechanisms are at work. First, the historical memory of a popular insurrection opens up a debate about the party's legitimacy. During the debate, the more progressive party members criticize the conservative members for their role in defeating the popular uprising. The conservative members then resign, and the party reforms and democratizes. Second, commemorations of past uprisings reveal the strength of the opposition and show the regime's limited public support. The rulers realize that the likelihood of pre
摘要:本文探讨在位者在制度类型变化时如何形成偏好。作者将匈牙利和苏联共产党强硬派在1989-91年从共产主义过渡期间的看法并列。在此期间,历史起义的记忆通过两种机制减少了现任者对其民众合法性的误解。首先,历史记忆发挥了“公众容忍度指标”的作用,因为它将反对派聚集在一起,展示了政治支持的真实分布。其次,对过去起义的记忆起到了“保守改革者”的作用,它开启了党内关于政权合法性的辩论。作者的观点有助于弥补关于过渡不确定性条件下行为者偏好形成的文献缺失。它还在面向行动者和以制度为中心的民主化方法之间提供了有用的分析桥梁。关键词:历史记忆,匈牙利,政治合法性,后共产主义转型,公众舆论,俄罗斯**********政治行为者根据他们对公众支持的看法形成他们的偏好。然而,随着苏联于1989年开始解体,在匈牙利等卫星国,公众对共产党现任者的真正支持程度并不为人所知,因为共产党政权没有举行有争议的选举。转型的不确定性还来自于不明确的制度规则、不稳定的政党结构和不确定的苏联反应。在职者以不同的方式处理不确定性。一些党员低估了他们政治合法性的重要性和程度。这些强硬派顽固地坚持旧秩序。其他共产党领导人很早就意识到社会变化的真正规模,以及他们权力的局限性。这些政治家及时采取措施实现民主化,并与反对派妥协。在任者偏好的差异构成了一个谜。早期关于民主转型的学术研究通常将感知视为外生的,导致这种不一致的原因在很大程度上没有得到研究。本研究阐明了转型期行为者偏好的发展。反政府起义失败的历史记忆可以为当权者提供公众不满的晴雨表,从而减少当权者对其政治合法性的不确定性。有两种机制在起作用。首先,一场民众起义的历史记忆引发了一场关于共产党合法性的辩论。在辩论中,进步派批评了保守派在镇压起义中扮演的角色。保守党成员随后辞职,该党进行改革和民主化。其次,对过去起义的纪念揭示了反对派的力量,并显示出该政权有限的公众支持。统治者们意识到,维持现状的可能性已经降低,维持权力的唯一途径是与流行的历史符号联系在一起。随着纪念历史英雄的示威活动的增加,那些希望只在口头上接受进步思想的强硬派发现,他们需要用改革和妥协来支持自己的新形象。在这篇文章中,我重新审视了关于过渡不确定性的本质和偏好形成过程的理论讨论。然后,我详细说明了在不确定的条件下,历史记忆如何影响现任者对其合法性的看法。接下来,我将这一论点置于民主转型的学术研究中,并建议这一命题将对政权更迭的结构性解释和以行为者为导向的解释联系起来。在第一个实证部分,我区分了1956年起义的记忆影响并缓和了匈牙利当政者的看法的五个事件:Janos Kadar的倒台,Karoly Grosz的崛起,Imre Poszgay的采访,3月15日的示威游行,以及Imre Nagy的重新埋葬。...
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引用次数: 0
The Problem of Lasting Change: Civil Society and the Colored Revolutions in Georgia and Ukraine 持久变革的问题:格鲁吉亚和乌克兰的公民社会和颜色革命
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2008-04-01 DOI: 10.3200/DEMO.16.2.143-162
Nicklaus Laverty
Abstract: Civil society played a vital role in the colored revolutions of Georgia and Ukraine, exemplified by the activism of the youth groups Kmara and Pora. As democratic reform has stalled, however, these groups have found themselves increasingly marginalized because of the reemergence of authoritarian practices and elites. Only the renewed inclusion of civil society can restore the democratization process. Keywords: civil society, colored revolutions, democratization, protest, public sphere, social movements ********** Since the collape of the Soviet Union, popular mobilization has played a key part in effecting change in the post-Soviet states. The first instances were seen during the collapse of Soviet power in Eastern Europe, epitomized by the activism of Solidarity in Poland, but as post-Soviet states disappointed expectations of democratic change, such activism has been redirected at the successor regimes, often to great effect. The most recent events that fit this description have been generally referred to as the "colored revolutions," arguably inaugurated with the electoral revolutions in Bulgaria (1996-97), Slovakia and Croatia (1998-99), and the nonviolent ouster of Slobodan Milosevic in Serbia in 2000. (1) Partly inspired by the Serbian example, nonviolent regime changes occurred in Georgia in 2003 (the Rose Revolution), Ukraine in 2004-05 (the Orange Revolution), and Kyrgyzstan in 2005 (the Tulip Revolution). There were also unsuccessful attempts in Uzbekistan and Belarus in 2005 and 2006. These events have captured the attention and imagination of many international observers, who have speculated that the colored revolutions might represent the beginning of a new wave of democratization. This article's purpose is twofold. First, I examine the role of social movements and civil society in sparking the colored revolutions in Georgia and Ukraine, focusing specifically on the activities of the youth groups Kmara ("Enough") and Pora ("It's Time"). Most conventional accounts of the two revolutions focus primarily on the proximate causes (fraud, corruption, etc.) or the nature of the organized political opposition, spending less time on the strategies and tactics employed by civil society and social-movement actors. I will use new social movement theory to explore how these groups took advantage of political opportunities, acquired and used repertoires of contention, and interacted with conventional actors and the media. This requires examining how the post-Soviet period shaped the revolutions' political context. Second, I look at each revolution's aftermath to determine how successful each has been in promoting effective change. Both Georgia and Ukraine experienced problems with democratization because of the new regime's actions while in office (Georgia) or the resurgence of the previous authoritarian elites (Ukraine). It is important to account for these difficulties, and determine what role (if any) civil society has played in the p
摘要:公民社会在格鲁吉亚和乌克兰的颜色革命中发挥了至关重要的作用,以青年团体Kmara和Pora的激进主义为代表。然而,随着民主改革的停滞,这些群体发现自己越来越被边缘化,因为专制做法和精英的重新出现。只有重新纳入民间社会,才能恢复民主化进程。关键词:公民社会,颜色革命,民主化,抗议,公共领域,社会运动**********自苏联解体以来,民众动员在影响后苏联国家的变革中发挥了关键作用。第一个例子出现在苏联政权在东欧解体期间,以波兰团结工会的激进主义为代表,但随着后苏联国家辜负了人们对民主变革的期望,这种激进主义又被转向了继任政权,往往产生了巨大的影响。最近符合这一描述的事件通常被称为“颜色革命”,可以说是由保加利亚(1996-97)、斯洛伐克和克罗地亚(1998-99)的选举革命以及2000年塞尔维亚非暴力驱逐斯洛博丹·米洛舍维奇(Slobodan Milosevic)开始的。(1)部分受塞尔维亚例子的启发,2003年格鲁吉亚(玫瑰革命)、2004- 2005年乌克兰(橙色革命)和2005年吉尔吉斯斯坦(郁金香革命)发生了非暴力政权更迭。2005年和2006年在乌兹别克斯坦和白俄罗斯也有过失败的尝试。这些事件引起了许多国际观察家的注意和想象,他们推测,颜色革命可能代表着新一轮民主化浪潮的开始。这篇文章的目的是双重的。首先,我考察了社会运动和公民社会在引发格鲁吉亚和乌克兰的颜色革命中的作用,特别关注青年团体Kmara (Enough)和Pora (It's Time)的活动。大多数关于这两次革命的传统描述主要集中在直接原因(欺诈、腐败等)或有组织的政治反对派的性质上,而较少关注民间社会和社会运动参与者所采用的战略和战术。我将使用新的社会运动理论来探索这些群体如何利用政治机会,获得和使用争论的剧目,并与传统演员和媒体互动。这需要研究后苏联时期是如何塑造革命的政治背景的。其次,我考察了每一次革命的后果,以确定每一次革命在促进有效变革方面取得了多大的成功。格鲁吉亚和乌克兰都经历了民主化问题,因为新政权在执政期间的行为(格鲁吉亚)或以前的威权精英的复兴(乌克兰)。重要的是要考虑到这些困难,并确定公民社会在后颜色革命的政治环境中扮演了什么角色(如果有的话)。如果说对革命的描述过于依赖于对政权和反对派的分析,那么这种解释在革命后的政治发展中甚至更为普遍。这种经验主义的沉默是否意味着公民社会不再寻求在政治进程中发挥积极作用,还是意味着国家正在积极地排除公民社会发挥这种作用?这是否表明革命政府有效地吸纳了公民社会,将其纳入政治社会?我的目的是回答这些问题,以创造一幅更复杂的关于颜色革命所带来的变化类型的图景。本文以及支撑本文的理论框架分为两个部分——前进化和后进化。考察格鲁吉亚和乌克兰革命前的情况,我使用西德尼·塔罗(Sidney Tarrow)的著作《运动中的权力》(Power in movement)所描述的新社会运动理论,为理解民众和政治动员以及这种动员如何影响政治变革提供了一个框架。…
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引用次数: 18
Russia's Revolution: Essays, 1989-2006 俄罗斯革命:论文集,1989-2006
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2008-03-22 DOI: 10.5860/choice.45-1089
Thomas E. Rotnem
Russia's Revolution: Essays, 1989-2006, Leon Aron. Washington, DC: American Enterprise Institute Press, 2007. 374 pp. $25.00. Although a number of books revisiting the late Soviet period and the first decade of the post-Communist era have been published in the last two years, Leon Aron's Russia's Revolution: Essays, 1989-2006 is by far the most intimate and compelling of these. In Aron's amply cited and well-researched book, the author considers the customary topics of post-Communist political, economic, and institutional reform, while also offering the reader enthralling excursions into less-traveled locales--for example, the newly restored and reinvigorated Russian literary and culinary landscapes. Throughout, Aron reveals the enormity of change that has occurred in post-Communist Russia and, while recognizing fully the setbacks wrought by an expanding authoritarianism under Putin, urges the reader to look past the pockmarked trajectory of late and witness the unquestionable advances that separate today's Russia from the recent Soviet past. Of the twenty-one essays included in the volume, among the best are those depicting the revolutionary, failed reforms of Gorbachev, the closing days of the Soviet Union, and the enormity of the challenge facing Russia's first elected leader. The chapter on glasnost eloquently demonstrates how truly groundbreaking and far-reaching Gorbachev's opening policy salvo was. Additional essays covering the Gorbachev era introduce the reader to many of the icons of this brief revolutionary period, while also highlighting the role of certain serendipitous events that may have altered appreciably the course of reform during this era. In Russia's Revolution Aron also reveals how exceptionally out of touch Gorbachev was with political realities in the waning weeks and months of the Soviet Union. The essays on Boris Yeltsin and his eight-year reign, while calling attention to some of the president's more harmful personality traits and second-term lapses, also illustrate how singularly bold, determined, and essential he was at this point in Russia's history. Moreover, those looking for an in-depth discussion of post-Communist institutional, political, and economic reforms will not be disappointed. Aron devotes more than half of the book to these concerns, documenting along the way both how the post-Soviet transformation diverged from the Western experience and the truly momentous nature of the hoped-for transition to a capitalist democracy. The author also treats the Western reader to an often-unobserved side of the "new Russia" by including essays on Russia's scintillating literary renaissance, the material and moral yearnings of the growing middle class, and a delectable discourse on Russia's traditional and nouveau cuisines. …
《俄罗斯革命:论文集,1989-2006》,里昂·阿伦著。华盛顿:美国企业研究所出版社,2007。374页,25美元。尽管在过去的两年里出版了许多回顾苏联后期和后共产主义时代的第一个十年的书,但Leon Aron的《俄罗斯的革命:1989-2006年的散文》是迄今为止这些书中最亲密和最引人注目的。在这本被大量引用、研究充分的书中,作者考虑了后共产主义时代的政治、经济和制度改革的常见话题,同时也为读者提供了引人入胜的短途旅行,进入了很少有人去的地方——例如,新近恢复和重新焕发活力的俄罗斯文学和烹饪景观。贯穿全书,阿隆揭示了后共产主义时代的俄罗斯发生的巨大变化,同时充分认识到普京领导下不断扩张的威权主义所造成的挫折,他敦促读者超越最近的坑坑洼的轨迹,见证将今天的俄罗斯与最近的苏联区分开来的毫无疑问的进步。在这本书收录的21篇文章中,最好的是那些描述戈尔巴乔夫革命性的、失败的改革、苏联最后的日子,以及俄罗斯第一位民选领导人面临的巨大挑战的文章。关于公开性的那一章雄辩地证明了戈尔巴乔夫的开放政策是多么具有开创性和深远意义。另外一些关于戈尔巴乔夫时代的文章向读者介绍了这一短暂革命时期的许多标志性人物,同时也强调了某些偶然事件的作用,这些事件可能显著地改变了这一时代的改革进程。在《俄罗斯的革命》一书中,阿隆还揭示了在苏联衰亡的几周乃至几个月里,戈尔巴乔夫是如何异常地脱离了政治现实。这些关于鲍里斯·叶利钦(Boris Yeltsin)及其八年统治的文章,在让人们注意到这位总统一些更有害的性格特征和第二任期失误的同时,也说明了他在俄罗斯历史上的这个时刻是多么的大胆、坚定和重要。此外,那些希望深入讨论后共产主义制度、政治和经济改革的人不会失望。阿隆在书中花了一半以上的时间来讨论这些问题,记录了后苏联时代的转型与西方经验的差异,以及人们所希望的向资本主义民主过渡的真正重大性质。作者还向西方读者展示了“新俄罗斯”经常被忽视的一面,包括俄罗斯辉煌的文学复兴,不断壮大的中产阶级对物质和道德的渴望,以及对俄罗斯传统和新美食的愉快论述。…
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引用次数: 5
How Russia Really Works: The Informal Practices That Shaped Post-Soviet Politics and Business 俄罗斯到底是如何运作的:塑造后苏联政治和商业的非正式做法
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2008-03-22 DOI: 10.5860/choice.44-4693
Anna U. Lowry
How Russia Really Works: The Informal Practices That Shaped Post-Soviet Politics and Business, Alena V. Ledeneva. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2006. 288 pp. $22.95. How Russia Really Works covers the informal practices in politics, business, media, and the legal sphere in Russia in the 1990s. It contributes to a growing body of research in comparative politics on informal institutions. Alena Ledeneva's main thesis concerns the "paradoxical role" of informal practices in post-Soviet Russia: They are both supportive and subversive of formal rules and informal norms; "they accommodate change but also represent resistance to change" (3). Ledeneva's concept of informal practices, equally grounded in formal rules and informal norms and focusing on players, helps to explain players' dual role. She defines informal practices as "regular sets of players' strategies that infringe on, manipulate, or exploit formal rules and that make use of informal norms and personal obligations for pursuing goals outside the personal domain" (22). The actors involved are closed circles of professional elites who share a body of know-how that is largely unavailable to the general population. Rather than assuming that actors invariably follow a set of identifiable unwritten rules, Ledeneva emphasizes that their strategies involve bending both formal rules and informal norms, or following some and breaking others, and thus illuminate their creativity and mastery in navigating between the two domains. Between 1997 and 2003, the author conducted sixty-two in-depth interviews with fifty respondents representative of economic elites and various people in possession of know-how. She controlled for regional variation to the best of her ability, with her findings mainly applicable to large cities. Chapters 2-7 constitute the empirical core of Ledeneva's book. Chapter 2 examines the informal practices associated with competitive elections in post-Soviet Russia, which spawned a variety of manipulative technologies referred to as "black PR" (chernyi piar). The author examines PR practices in Russia from a comparative perspective and argues that the specifics of PR practices in Russia, such as a greater scale of manipulation, stem from certain defects of formal institutions--weakness of political parties, lack of independent media, and disrespect for the law. A comparative perspective is also employed in chapter 3 in the analysis of compromising information (kompromat) to attack political opponents and business competitors. The prominence of kompromat in Russia is contrasted with lustration campaigns (the legal process of exposing collaborators with the secret police in previous regimes) in Central and Eastern Europe, revealing the continuity of political power in Russia. …
《俄罗斯的真正运作方式:塑造后苏联政治和商业的非正式做法》,阿莱娜·v·列德涅娃著。纽约州伊萨卡:康奈尔大学出版社,2006年。288页,22.95美元。《俄罗斯是如何运作的》涵盖了20世纪90年代俄罗斯政治、商业、媒体和法律领域的非正式实践。它促进了非正式制度比较政治学研究的发展。Alena Ledeneva的主要论文关注后苏联时期俄罗斯非正式实践的“矛盾作用”:它们既支持正式规则又颠覆非正式规范;Ledeneva的非正式实践概念同样建立在正式规则和非正式规范的基础上,并关注参与者,这有助于解释参与者的双重角色。她将非正式行为定义为“违反、操纵或利用正式规则,利用非正式规范和个人义务追求个人领域之外目标的常规玩家策略集合”(22)。参与其中的参与者是由专业精英组成的封闭圈子,他们分享着普通大众基本上无法获得的技术诀窍。Ledeneva并没有假设演员总是遵循一套可识别的不成文规则,而是强调他们的策略包括弯曲正式规则和非正式规范,或者遵循一些规则而打破另一些规则,从而阐明了他们在两个领域之间导航的创造力和掌握能力。从1997年到2003年,作者对50名经济精英和各种拥有专业知识的人进行了62次深度访谈。她尽其所能控制了地区差异,她的发现主要适用于大城市。第2-7章构成了Ledeneva这本书的实证核心。第2章考察了后苏联时期俄罗斯与竞争性选举相关的非正式做法,这些选举催生了各种被称为“黑色公关”(chernyi piar)的操纵技术。作者从比较的角度考察了俄罗斯的公关实践,并认为俄罗斯公关实践的具体特点,如更大规模的操纵,源于正式制度的某些缺陷——政党的弱点,缺乏独立的媒体,不尊重法律。在第三章中,还采用了比较的观点来分析妥协信息(黑材料),以攻击政治对手和商业竞争对手。黑材料在俄罗斯的突出地位与中欧和东欧的曝光运动(揭露前政权秘密警察的合作者的法律程序)形成鲜明对比,揭示了俄罗斯政治权力的连续性。…
{"title":"How Russia Really Works: The Informal Practices That Shaped Post-Soviet Politics and Business","authors":"Anna U. Lowry","doi":"10.5860/choice.44-4693","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5860/choice.44-4693","url":null,"abstract":"How Russia Really Works: The Informal Practices That Shaped Post-Soviet Politics and Business, Alena V. Ledeneva. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2006. 288 pp. $22.95. How Russia Really Works covers the informal practices in politics, business, media, and the legal sphere in Russia in the 1990s. It contributes to a growing body of research in comparative politics on informal institutions. Alena Ledeneva's main thesis concerns the \"paradoxical role\" of informal practices in post-Soviet Russia: They are both supportive and subversive of formal rules and informal norms; \"they accommodate change but also represent resistance to change\" (3). Ledeneva's concept of informal practices, equally grounded in formal rules and informal norms and focusing on players, helps to explain players' dual role. She defines informal practices as \"regular sets of players' strategies that infringe on, manipulate, or exploit formal rules and that make use of informal norms and personal obligations for pursuing goals outside the personal domain\" (22). The actors involved are closed circles of professional elites who share a body of know-how that is largely unavailable to the general population. Rather than assuming that actors invariably follow a set of identifiable unwritten rules, Ledeneva emphasizes that their strategies involve bending both formal rules and informal norms, or following some and breaking others, and thus illuminate their creativity and mastery in navigating between the two domains. Between 1997 and 2003, the author conducted sixty-two in-depth interviews with fifty respondents representative of economic elites and various people in possession of know-how. She controlled for regional variation to the best of her ability, with her findings mainly applicable to large cities. Chapters 2-7 constitute the empirical core of Ledeneva's book. Chapter 2 examines the informal practices associated with competitive elections in post-Soviet Russia, which spawned a variety of manipulative technologies referred to as \"black PR\" (chernyi piar). The author examines PR practices in Russia from a comparative perspective and argues that the specifics of PR practices in Russia, such as a greater scale of manipulation, stem from certain defects of formal institutions--weakness of political parties, lack of independent media, and disrespect for the law. A comparative perspective is also employed in chapter 3 in the analysis of compromising information (kompromat) to attack political opponents and business competitors. The prominence of kompromat in Russia is contrasted with lustration campaigns (the legal process of exposing collaborators with the secret police in previous regimes) in Central and Eastern Europe, revealing the continuity of political power in Russia. …","PeriodicalId":39667,"journal":{"name":"Demokratizatsiya","volume":"70 1","pages":"202"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91126455","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 268
Democratic Breakthroughs and Revolutions in Five Postcommunist Countries: Comparative Perspectives on the Fourth Wave 五个后共产主义国家的民主突破与革命:第四次浪潮的比较视角
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2008-01-01 DOI: 10.3200/DEMO.16.1.97-112
Taras Kuzio
The democratic breakthroughs and revolutions of 1998-2004 for Slovakia, Croatia, Serbia, Georgia, and Ukraine constituted a second phase of their transformation as postcommunist states. All five countries experienced different national revolutions that prevented the simultaneous pursuit of nation-state building and democracy immediately after communism's collapse. After the dissolution of the Czechoslovak state, Slovakia had to come to terms with being an independent state that would coexist with a large Hungarian minority. Croatia's war of independence monopolized the first half of the 1990s and the Serbian threat only receded after the re-taking of Krajina in 1995. From 1988-99, Slobodan Milo?evic dominated Serbia. His plans for a greater Serbia, which ultimately led to NATO's bombing campaign in 1999, resulted in unprecedented war crimes, chaos, and havoc in the former Yugoslavia. Georgia entered the post-Soviet era dominated by ethnic nationalism that led to civil war and the loss of two separatist enclaves. Ukraine was a leading country seeking the dismantling of the USSR in 1991, and 91 percent of Ukrainians overwhelmingly endorsed a referendum on independence. But national independence came without democracy as the state was hijacked until 2004 by the former "sovereign communists," turned centrists, under Leonid Kravchuk and Leonid Kuchma. Throughout the 1990s, Ukraine's elites felt threatened by internal threats from the anti-state and antireform communists, who were the largest political force until the 2002 elections, and externally from Russia, which refused to recognize Ukraine's borders until 1997-99.The democratic opposition perceived the Slovak '98 OK Campaign as Slovakia's opportunity to complete the Velvet Revolution that escaped the country in 1989-90 and remove Vladimir Mec iar's populist nationalism that had, until then, dominated postcom-munist Slovakia. The Croatian opposition also sought to distance itself from the nationalist 1990s in favor of "returning to Europe" through domestic democratic reforms. Georgia's opposition sought to overcome a failed and dismembered state, amid deep levels of stagnation under Eduard Shevardnadze. Georgian analyst Nodia believes that "our revolution in 2003 reminded us of the Eastern European revolution of 1989" when a new generation of non-communist elites came to power.1 A similar sense of unfinished revolution permeated Ukraine's Orange Revolution that, for its leaders and supporters, represented the democratic conclusion to the national revolution of 1991.This article is divided into two sections. The first section analyzes ten causal factors that contribute to democratic breakthroughs and revolutions in Slovakia, Croatia, Serbia, Georgia, and Ukraine. These factors differ in their degree of intensity for all five states. The absence of all, or some, of these factors will prevent successful democratic revolutions in Russia, Belarus, Azerbaijan, and other CIS states. The ten factors inclu
1998年至2004年斯洛伐克、克罗地亚、塞尔维亚、格鲁吉亚和乌克兰的民主突破和革命构成了它们向后共产主义国家转型的第二阶段。这五个国家都经历了不同的民族革命,这阻止了在共产主义崩溃后立即追求民族国家建设和民主。在捷克斯洛伐克解体后,斯洛伐克不得不接受成为一个独立的国家,与庞大的匈牙利少数民族共存。克罗地亚的独立战争垄断了20世纪90年代的前半期,塞尔维亚的威胁在1995年重新夺回克拉伊纳后才有所减弱。1988-99年间,斯洛博丹?埃维奇统治着塞尔维亚。他的大塞尔维亚计划最终导致了1999年北约的轰炸行动,在前南斯拉夫造成了前所未有的战争罪行、混乱和浩劫。格鲁吉亚进入了以民族主义为主导的后苏联时代,导致了内战,并失去了两块分离主义飞地。1991年,乌克兰是寻求解体苏联的主要国家,91%的乌克兰人压倒性地支持举行独立公投。但是民族独立却没有民主,直到2004年国家被前“主权共产主义者”劫持,他们变成了中间派,在列昂尼德·克拉夫丘克和列昂尼德·库奇马的领导下。在整个上世纪90年代,乌克兰的精英们都感受到来自内部威胁的威胁。内部威胁来自反国家和反改革的共产党人,他们在2002年大选之前是最大的政治力量;外部威胁来自俄罗斯,直到1997-99年,俄罗斯都拒绝承认乌克兰的边界。斯洛伐克的民主反对派认为,1998年OK运动是斯洛伐克完成1989-90年天鹅绒革命的机会,并消除了弗拉基米尔·梅奇亚(Vladimir Mec iar)的民粹主义民族主义,直到那时,后者一直主导着后共产主义斯洛伐克。克罗地亚反对派也试图与20世纪90年代的民族主义划清界限,支持通过国内民主改革“回归欧洲”。在爱德华•谢瓦尔德纳泽(edward Shevardnadze)领导下,格鲁吉亚陷入了严重的经济停滞,反对派试图克服这个失败和分裂的国家。格鲁吉亚分析人士诺迪亚认为,“我们2003年的革命让我们想起了1989年的东欧革命”,当时新一代非共产主义精英掌权乌克兰的橙色革命也弥漫着类似的未完成革命的感觉,对其领导人和支持者来说,橙色革命代表着1991年全国革命的民主终结。本文分为两部分。第一部分分析了促成斯洛伐克、克罗地亚、塞尔维亚、格鲁吉亚和乌克兰民主突破和革命的十个原因。这些因素在五个州的影响程度各不相同。如果这些因素全部或部分缺失,将会阻碍俄罗斯、白俄罗斯、阿塞拜疆和其他独联体国家成功的民主革命。这十个因素包括:一个竞争性的威权国家的存在为民主反对派提供了空间,“回归欧洲”的公民民族主义有助于公民社会的动员,先前的政治危机,一个亲民主的首都,不受欢迎的统治精英,一个有魅力的候选人,一个团结的反对派,动员的青年,地区主义和外国干预。第二部分讨论五州民主突破和革命之后的发展。该部分分为四个主题:新政权处理过去遗留问题的能力、民主反对派的分裂、旧政权的回归、民主化的进展。民主突破与革命后共产主义国家民主突破与革命的成功有以下几个重要因素。其中包括竞争性(即半)威权国家为民主反对派提供空间;协助动员公民社会的“回归欧洲”公民民族主义;之前的政治危机削弱了政权的合法性;支持民主的首都;不受欢迎的统治精英;有魅力的候选人;反对派:统一的反对派;动员青年;地区主义和外国干预(俄罗斯或欧盟)。…
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引用次数: 29
Putin's Lurch toward Tsarism and Neoimperialism: Why the United States Should Care 普京蹒跚走向沙皇主义和新帝国主义:为什么美国应该关心
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2008-01-01 DOI: 10.3200/DEMO.16.1.17-26
A. Åslund
IntroductionThe permanent question during Putin's first term was "Who is Mr. Putin?" As a trained KGB agent, he was all things to all people. He appealed to Russian nationalists and the Orthodox Church, but he also saw and nurtured Western leaders. Unlike Yeltsin, Putin did not antagonize the communists, but he also appealed to economic liberals with more market reforms.1 His open-to-all attitude did not seem convincing. It looked like a waiting game. Everybody wondered what Putin would do when he had consolidated power.Systematic Establishment of Political AuthoritarianismOnly in one regard was Putin completely clear: he was a political authoritarian, but he did not say so. He muzzled the media, starting with television and proceeding with one newspaper after the other. He had brought the State Duma under control, partly through democratic means, partly through gross corruption. The regional governors were brought to heel by all means.2 Putin's loyalty to the KGB and its predecessors was unwavering, demonstrative, and frightening.The clearest indication of Putin's direction was his appointments. They all came from a very narrow stratum of former colleagues in St. Petersburg, mainly from the KGB. (KGB people are called siloviki in Russian? which means people belonging to the power ministries-the KGB, the military, and the police.) Putin's associates were both from the FSB and the foreign intelligence service (SVR), but the FSB people dominated.3The fundamental question is: What kind of Russia has Putin created? Before the presidential elections in March 2004, as in 2000, Putin thrived on the postrevolutionary contempt for politics and refused to debate any competitor, but he actually made a public policy declaration on television. He surprised with a Jeffersonian declaration of freedom:We must continue work to create a genuinely functioning civil society in our country. I especially want to say that creating a civil society is impossible without genuinely free and responsible media. . . .I firmly believe that only a developed civil society can truly protect democratic freedoms and guarantee the rights and freedoms of the citizen and the individual. Ultimately, only free people can ensure a growing economy and a prosperous state. . . .I would like to stress once more that the rights and freedoms of our people are the highest value that defines the sense and content of the state's work.Finally, we will most certainly complete the transformations currently underway in the judicial system and the law enforcement agencies. I think this is a truly important area that is decisive for building up real democracy in the country and ensuring the constitutional rights and guarantees of our citizens.4Putin did none of this. As usual, when he said something, he was preparing to do the opposite. He is known for two political concepts. The first is "managed democracy" and the second is the later "sovereign democracy." In 2002, Putin denied ever having used the e
在普京的第一个任期内,一个永恒的问题是“普京先生是谁?”作为一名训练有素的克格勃特工,他是所有人的一切。他呼吁俄罗斯民族主义者和东正教会,但他也看到并培养了西方领导人。与叶利钦不同,普京并没有与共产主义者对抗,但他也以更多的市场改革来吸引经济自由主义者他开诚布公的态度似乎不能令人信服。这看起来像是一场等待的游戏。所有人都想知道,普京巩固了权力后会怎么做。普京只有一点是完全清楚的:他是一个政治威权主义者,但他没有这么说。他堵住了媒体的嘴,从电视开始,接着是一家又一家报纸。他控制了国家杜马,部分是通过民主手段,部分是通过严重的腐败。无论如何,地方长官们都被迫就范了普京对克格勃及其前身的忠诚是坚定不移的、显而易见的、令人恐惧的。普京的方向最明显的迹象是他的任命。他们都来自圣彼得堡前同事的一个非常狭窄的阶层,主要来自克格勃。(克格勃的人在俄语里叫西罗维奇?指的是属于权力部门的人——克格勃、军队和警察。)普京的亲信既来自俄罗斯联邦安全局,也来自俄罗斯对外情报局(SVR),但俄罗斯联邦安全局的人占主导地位。最根本的问题是:普京创造了一个什么样的俄罗斯?在2004年3月的总统选举之前,和2000年一样,普京在革命后对政治的蔑视中蓬勃发展,拒绝与任何竞争对手辩论,但他实际上在电视上发表了公共政策宣言。他出人意料地发表了杰斐逊式的自由宣言:我们必须继续努力,在我们的国家建立一个真正有效的公民社会。我特别想说的是,没有真正自由和负责任的媒体,就不可能创造一个公民社会. . . .我坚信,只有发达的公民社会才能真正保护民主自由,保障公民和个人的权利和自由。最终,只有自由的人民才能确保经济增长和国家繁荣. . . .我想再次强调,我们人民的权利和自由是决定国家工作意义和内容的最高价值。最后,我们肯定会完成目前正在进行的司法系统和执法机构的改革。我认为这是一个非常重要的领域,对于在这个国家建立真正的民主,确保我国公民的宪法权利和保障具有决定性作用。普京什么都没做。像往常一样,他说了什么,就准备反其道而行之。他以两种政治理念而闻名。第一种是“管理民主”,第二种是后来的“主权民主”。2002年,普京否认曾使用过“有管理的民主”一词,仔细搜索后发现,他可能是对的。同样,搜索显示他从未在公开场合使用过“主权民主”这个词。在2007年的年度讲话中,普京试图给出一个答案首先,他声称要“实现选举制度的真正民主化. . . .”比例制度使反对派有更多的机会扩大其在立法议会中的代表. . . .我确信新的选举规则不仅会加强政党在形成民主权力体系中的作用,而且还会鼓励不同政党之间进行更大的竞争。”然而,普京系统性地消除了民主选举竞争。其次,他说,“今天俄罗斯国家权力的分散程度比我国历史上任何时候都要高。”然而,普京治下的俄罗斯远比叶利钦治下的俄罗斯更加集权。…
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引用次数: 12
Introduction to the Fifteenth Anniversary Issue 十五周年纪念特刊简介
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2008-01-01 DOI: 10.3200/DEMO.16.1.5-8
Fredo Arias-King
Demokratizatsiya is in constant change, just like the region it studies. Founded by undergraduate students in a dorm room with the help of three visionary deans at American University (AU), it quickly became a normal, professional publication. It began as a biyearly publication that soon thereafter expanded to a quarterly. After two years on its own but in partnership with AU, Moscow State University, the International Freedom Foundation and later the American Foreign Policy Council, the journal became part of Heldref Publications--created by scholars from the American Political Science Association concerned about the survival of worthy scholarly journals. After years with the same familiar look, Demokratizatsiya recently changed its format to make it more suitable for newsstands and bookstores. It fluctuates between hard scholarship and policy-relevant scholarship, reflecting the five "stakeholder" groups that shaped it: Western Sovietologists, NIS scholars, Western policymakers, NIS policymakers, and scholars from other disciplines coming in contact with the NIS. Sociologists, political scientists, historians, legal experts, economists, and policymakers make the journal interdisciplinary. Our online edition (through Metapress) has been more successful than anticipated--even surpassing the print version. The students who were instrumental in founding the journal--Kelly Adams, Vasilios Fotopoulos, Ruth Pojman, David Bain, Paula Orlikowski, Frederick Williams, Chris Dwyer, and Steve Cruty (later joined by Peter Serenyi, Grant Benson, Natalia Melnyczuk, Laurence Olson, Rangarajan Soundararajan, John Knab, Chris Corpora, Shinjinee Sen, Dmitri Iudine, Birgit Brauer, Svetlana Bagaudinova, Liesl Heeter, Kelly McKenna, Brian Simon, Craig Coulter, James Stevens, Ross Phelps, Timothy Scott, and Glenn Bryant, among others)--paid the price of their youthful indiscretion by moving on to bigger and better NIS-related katorga (hard labor). Five years ago I also mentioned the instability of cadres in the journal, as its editors are highly successful and mobile types who get big appointments and have to rotate out of their editorial responsibilities. Those of us familiar with the business world see this as normalno (as the Russians see their society becoming, according to Richard Rose in this issue). The journal practices what it preaches, subject to the classic formula of democracy: predictable publication every three months, but unpredictable outcomes! Because it is blind peer reviewed and its editorial leadership decentralized, the journal can essentially run itself. But there is also room for editorial leadership and individual editors nonetheless have left their indelible marks, which proved fortuitous because they are outstanding scholars who predicted defining trends very early. If there is one expert who can say "I told you so," it is our former executive editor J. Michael Waller, whose articles on the KGB since 1992 predicted to a tee the phenomenon we
民主化是不断变化的,就像它所研究的地区一样。在美利坚大学(American University)三位富有远见的院长的帮助下,一群本科生在一间宿舍里创办了这份杂志,它很快成为了一份正规的专业出版物。它最初是每两年出版一次,此后不久扩大到每季度出版一次。在独立出版两年后,该杂志与非盟、莫斯科国立大学、国际自由基金会以及后来的美国外交政策委员会合作,成为Heldref Publications的一部分。Heldref Publications是由美国政治科学协会(American Political Science Association)的学者创建的,他们关心有价值的学术期刊的生存。多年来,Demokratizatsiya一直保持着同样熟悉的外观,最近它改变了格式,使其更适合报摊和书店。它在硬学术和政策相关学术之间波动,反映了塑造它的五个“利益相关者”群体:西方苏联学家、国家情报院学者、西方决策者、国家情报院决策者和与国家情报院接触的其他学科的学者。社会学家、政治学家、历史学家、法律专家、经济学家和政策制定者使该杂志成为跨学科的。我们的在线版(通过Metapress)比预期的更成功,甚至超过了印刷版。在创办期刊过程中发挥重要作用的学生有:Kelly Adams、Vasilios Fotopoulos、Ruth Pojman、David Bain、Paula Orlikowski、Frederick Williams、Chris Dwyer和Steve Cruty(后来加入的还有Peter Serenyi、Grant Benson、Natalia Melnyczuk、Laurence Olson、Rangarajan Soundararajan、John Knab、Chris Corpora、Shinjinee Sen、Dmitri Iudine、Birgit Brauer、Svetlana Bagaudinova、Liesl Heeter、Kelly McKenna、Brian Simon、Craig Coulter、James Stevens、Ross Phelps、Timothy Scott、以及格伦·布莱恩特(Glenn Bryant)等人)——他们为年轻时的轻率付出了代价,转而从事更大、更好的与nis相关的工作(艰苦的劳动)。五年前,我也提到过干部的不稳定性,因为它的编辑是非常成功的、流动的类型,他们得到了重要的任命,必须轮流履行编辑职责。我们这些熟悉商业世界的人认为这是正常的(正如理查德·罗斯在本期杂志中所说的,俄罗斯人看到他们的社会正在变成这样)。该杂志言行一致,遵循经典的民主模式:每三个月出版一期,但结果不可预测!因为它是盲目的同行评议,而且它的编辑领导权是分散的,所以它基本上可以自己经营。但编辑的领导力也有发挥的空间,尽管如此,个别编辑还是留下了不可磨灭的印记,这被证明是幸运的,因为他们是杰出的学者,很早就预测到了决定性的趋势。如果说有哪位专家可以说“我早告诉过你”,那就是我们的前执行主编j·迈克尔·沃勒(J. Michael Waller),他自1992年以来关于克格勃的文章准确地预测了我们现在称之为普京主义的现象。露易丝·谢莉也可以,她对腐败和有组织犯罪的关注。尼古拉·兹洛宾、迈克尔·麦克福尔、莎莉·斯托克、弗拉基米尔·布罗夫金和菲奥娜·希尔也通过他们邀请的学者网络,带来了许多他们自己的、高度多样化的见解。马歇尔•戈德曼(Marshall Goldman)在石油和天然气政治方面的开创性工作,以及克里斯托弗•马什(Christopher Marsh)对中国转型的推断,以及亨利•黑尔(Henry Hale)对党国结构的杰出分析,都被证明与今天的现实息息相关。democratizsiya是一本学术和政策预言家的杂志。这本杂志最初引起了一些知名的苏联学家的不安(有人甚至发誓要在1992年“粉碎”我们),今天它与美国斯拉夫研究促进协会合作出版,它的前卫立场今天是主流——不仅因为事件证明了我们是正确的,还因为当时新兴的、特立独行的学者们创办了这本杂志,逐渐接管了学术界。…
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引用次数: 0
Is Russia Becoming a Normal Society 俄罗斯正在成为一个正常的社会吗
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2008-01-01 DOI: 10.3200/DEMO.16.1.75-86
R. Rose
The word normal is ambiguous in English. It can refer to acting in accord with a given standard of behavior, a norm, or it can refer to the way the average person behaves. In societies in which citizens and institutions act as they ought to, this makes social life both predictable and acceptable. However, what is normalno in Russia is much more problematic. Some scholars have argued that the autocratic institutions of tsarist and Soviet times survived because Russian subjects regarded the state's demands as normal in both the normative and the positive senses.1 However, the Soviet regime has been characterized as a "dualistic" hourglass society because of a conflict between the norms of the Communist regime and how people actually behaved.2 Vladimir Shlapentokh has recommended managing the resulting tension by adopting the approach of a herpetologist, studying life in A Normal Totalitarian Society as dispassionately as one might study the behavior of other parts of the animal kingdom.3The dissolution of the Soviet Union created the classic structural conditions for anomie in Durkheim's sense of the breakdown of the norms and institutions of polity, economy, and state. The upheavals that followed meant that Russians could not go about their everyday lives normally because they had been socialized to live in the Soviet era. People were forced to cope amidst the turbulence of a society that had not yet established routines of what was normal in the statistical sense. Most Russians have coped by adopting and adapting networks and strategies that were familiar in Soviet times.4By definition, a period of turbulence-and the transformation of Russia's polity, economy, and society was certainly that-can only be sustained for a limited period of time. At some point the void created by the repudiation of the Communist party-state and the command economy is filled by new institutions that require people to behave differently if they are to eat enough, enjoy their leisure, and get the benefits to which they are entitled from public services. Moreover, transformation has brought opportunities that people can seize to better their conditions. For example, by saving money in the knowledge that the shops will have goods if a person can pay the market price or studying English in the expectation that this will lead to a better job.5Two decades after the abrupt start of glasnost and perestroika, Russians have had time to learn, for better or worse, what is now statistically normal in their society. However, the regime's failure to live up to the values that Russians hold about what makes a normal society has led to widespread dissatisfaction with the institutions to which they have had to adapt.6The ambiguity of contemporary Russian life is expressed in the hybrid characterizations that international organizations and many area-studies experts use to describe it. Westerners use compound labels to emphasize values inherent in European norms and deviations from them,
normal这个词在英语中有歧义。它可以指按照给定的行为标准、规范行事,也可以指普通人的行为方式。在公民和机构按其职责行事的社会中,这使得社会生活既可预测又可接受。然而,在俄罗斯,正常的事情却有更多的问题。一些学者认为,沙皇和苏联时代的专制制度得以幸存,是因为俄罗斯臣民认为国家的要求在规范和积极意义上都是正常的然而,由于共产主义政权的规范与人们的实际行为之间存在冲突,苏联政权被定性为“二元”沙漏社会Vladimir Shlapentokh建议采取爬行动物学家的方法来管理由此产生的紧张关系,像研究动物王国其他部分的行为一样冷静地研究正常极权社会中的生活。苏联的解体为迪尔凯姆认为的政治、经济和国家的规范和制度的崩溃创造了典型的社会反常的结构性条件。随之而来的动荡意味着俄罗斯人无法正常过日常生活,因为他们已经被社会化了,生活在苏联时代。人们被迫应对社会的动荡,因为这个社会还没有建立起统计意义上的正常惯例。大多数俄罗斯人通过采用和调整苏联时代熟悉的网络和策略来应对。根据定义,一段动荡时期——以及俄罗斯政治、经济和社会的转型——只能持续一段有限的时间。在某种程度上,对共产党-国家和计划经济的否定所造成的空白被新的制度所填补,这些制度要求人们如果想要吃饱、享受闲暇,并从公共服务中获得应有的利益,就必须改变行为方式。此外,转型带来了人们可以抓住的机会来改善他们的条件。例如,通过省钱,如果一个人能支付市场价格,商店就会有商品,或者学习英语,期望这将导致更好的工作。在突然开始开放和改革的二十年后,俄罗斯人有时间去学习,不管是好是坏,现在在他们的社会中统计上是正常的。然而,该政权未能实现俄罗斯人对正常社会构成的价值观,导致他们对不得不适应的制度普遍不满。当代俄罗斯生活的模糊性体现在国际组织和许多地区研究专家用来描述它的混合特征中。西方人使用复合标签来强调欧洲规范固有的价值观和与之相背离的价值观,例如将这个国家描述为“部分自由”或表现出“有管理的多元主义”或“掠夺性资本主义”。俄罗斯人也可以使用复合标签来强调使用该标签的俄罗斯人所重视的东西。例如,弗拉基米尔·普京(Vladimir Putin)的副行政长官将俄罗斯定性为“主权民主国家”,含蓄地向外国人表明,他们无权评论俄罗斯政府在国内的所作所为。德米特里•梅德韦杰夫(Dmitry Medvedev)放弃了这个形容词,转而宣称俄罗斯与八国集团其他国家一样民主,这对七国集团领导人构成了政治挑战,从而更有力地证明了这一点。然而,所有对俄罗斯社会整体的评价都有局限性。人们认为,俄罗斯人对什么是正常生活有着一致的看法,俄罗斯人与西方(即欧洲和英美)公民有着相同的规范和价值观。但这一假设没有经验有效性。我利用新俄罗斯晴雨表(New Russian Barometer,简称NRB)的调查数据来研究俄罗斯人对正常社会的定义,他们是否认为今天是正常的,如果不是,俄罗斯社会需要多少年才能正常,或者它是否会正常。...
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引用次数: 6
Was Liberty Really Bad for Russia? (Part II) 自由真的对俄罗斯有害吗?(第二部分)
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2008-01-01 DOI: 10.3200/DEMO.16.2.131-142
L. Aron
"Like Providence in reverse, the Russian government seeks to arrange for the better not the future, but the past."-Aleksandr HerzenIt is very much in the Russian and, even more so, Soviet political tradition for rulers to deprecate their predecessors. As they ascend the power ladder, the would-be Kremlin occupants must profess complete loyalty to the current leader to succeed. Once in power, the country's new masters bolster their authority by dissociating themselves from previous leaders. Along with Russia's weak political institutions, which undermine the transitions' legitimacy, such repudiations almost inevitably result in the personalization of power, as the new occupants mold the political, social, and economic systems to their liking. Hence, Russian and-and especially-Soviet history have often resembled a succession of distinct personal political regimes-indeed, sometimes different states under the same name.Thus, at first blush, this Kremlin's castigation of the 1992-99 period, which is portrayed as an unmitigated disaster, is not unusual. It is described as a time of gratuitously and maliciously inflicted humiliation, of "a failed state," and, most of all, of "chaos."2 Advanced relentlessly, many Russian commentators (who quickly recovered their Soviet skill of line-toeing), and some leading Western media, editorialists, and pundits, have adopted this line of argument.3 The fact that a booming economy has sprung from the alleged calamities of the preceding years, like Athena who appeared fully armed from Zeus's head, does not trouble the latter.4For all its conformity to national tradition, the "chaos" propaganda campaign has several features that do not fit the usual pattern. First, President Vladimir Putin was-and continues to be-very popular, and does not need to gain additional legitimacy at his predecessor's expense. In the 1990s, moreover, the breadth and intensity of public criticism of the government (in newspapers, on television, and in the parliament) were unprecedented in Russian, let alone Soviet, history. All the many warts and boils, real and imagined, of the Boris Yeltsin regime were exposed and lanced at the time. Indeed, many Russian pollsters believe that much of Putin's popularity is due to his not being the late Yeltsin: very sick, often inebriated, and increasingly unsteady and erratic in public. Thus, harping on the very real failures and hardships of the Yeltsin years can hardly be expected to lower the public's opinion of them more than it already is.A plausible explanation is that the chaos mantra's aim is much higher. As often happens in Russia, the past is invoked to shape the present and the future. In this case, the denunciations of the 1990s may, the Kremlin hopes, help manage the tense transition ahead (or the risks of Putin's decision to rewrite the constitution and run again) and, more importantly, establish the direction that Russia should take in the long run. No one disputes that in the 1990s, Russia w
“就像天意颠倒过来一样,俄罗斯政府寻求更好的安排,而不是未来,而是过去。”——亚历山大·赫泽尼统治者贬低前任是俄罗斯的政治传统,苏联的政治传统更是如此。在权力阶梯上升的过程中,未来的克里姆林宫主人必须对现任领导人完全忠诚,才能成功。一旦掌权,这个国家的新主人就会通过与前任领导人分离来巩固自己的权威。随着俄罗斯脆弱的政治制度削弱了过渡的合法性,这种否定几乎不可避免地导致权力个人化,因为新的占有者按照自己的喜好塑造政治、社会和经济体系。因此,俄罗斯的历史,尤其是苏联的历史,常常类似于一系列截然不同的个人政治政权——事实上,有时不同的国家在同一个名字下。因此,乍一看,克里姆林宫对1992年至1999年期间的谴责——被描绘成一场彻底的灾难——并不罕见。它被描述为一个无端和恶意施加羞辱的时代,一个“失败的国家”,最重要的是,一个“混乱”的时代。许多俄国评论家(他们很快就恢复了苏联时期的墨守成行的技巧),以及一些主要的西方媒体、社论家和权威人士,都毫不留情地采纳了这种观点繁荣的经济是从前几年所谓的灾难中产生的,就像雅典娜从宙斯的头上全副武装出现一样,这一事实并没有困扰后者。尽管“乱”宣传运动符合国家传统,但它有几个特点不符合通常的模式。首先,俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)过去和现在都非常受欢迎,他不需要以牺牲前任为代价来获得额外的合法性。此外,在20世纪90年代,公众对政府的批评(在报纸、电视和议会上)的广度和强度在俄罗斯历史上是前所未有的,更不用说苏联历史了。鲍里斯·叶利钦(Boris Yeltsin)政权的许多缺点和脓疮,无论是真实的还是想象的,都在当时被揭露和刺痛。事实上,许多俄罗斯民意调查专家认为普京之所以受欢迎,很大程度上是因为他不像已故的叶利钦:病得很重,经常喝醉,在公众面前越来越不稳定和不稳定。因此,对叶利钦时代的失败和困难喋喋不休,很难期望公众对他们的看法比现在更低。一个合理的解释是,混乱咒语的目标要高得多。正如在俄罗斯经常发生的那样,过去被用来塑造现在和未来。在这种情况下,克里姆林宫希望,上世纪90年代的谴责可能有助于管理未来紧张的过渡(或普京决定改写宪法并再次参选的风险),更重要的是,确定俄罗斯长期应该采取的方向。毫无疑问,除了1917年2月至11月的9个月,20世纪90年代的俄罗斯是有史以来最自由的。同样不可否认的是第一个后共产主义政权的意识形态。正如一位著名的俄罗斯政治分析家所说,它基于两个“简单的想法”:“个人自由是现代国家进步的基础”,以及“俄罗斯除了遵循西方的发展模式别无选择”。正是这种意识形态和模式,使得现政权决意要戳穿“混乱”的陈词滥调。如果说历史上最自由的俄罗斯带来的只是苦难和混乱,那么从原则上讲,自由对它是有害的。因此,普京的原型专制的“主权民主”和“垂直权力”,其中行政控制(或完全拥有)政府的其他分支和工业的关键部门。这种决定性的暗示使得混沌论的真实性值得探索。具体来说,我们需要确定的是:第一,经济自由化和民主化是否对混乱负有主要责任;第二,90年代是否没有混乱。…
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引用次数: 3
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Demokratizatsiya
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