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Were U.S. Banks Exposed to the Greek Debt Crisis? Evidence from Greek CDS Spreads 美国银行是否受到希腊债务危机的影响?希腊CDS息差就是证据
Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2016-01-19 DOI: 10.1111/fmii.12036
Marcia Millon Cornett, Otgontsetseg Erhemjamts, Jim Musumeci

This study provides an empirical analysis of the impact of the Greek debt crisis on stock returns of U.S. commercial banks. We find that good (bad) news events pertaining to the Greek debt crisis, identified by large changes in the Greek CDS spread, produce insignificant positive (negative) abnormal stock returns. While banks were exposed to Greek debt, their exposure was such that it did not result in any abnormal fluctuations in bank values at the height of the crisis. When we measure the sensitivity of bank returns to changes in the Greek CDS spread in an effort to measure banks’ exposure to the crisis, we find that changes in the Greek CDS spread provide no additional explanatory power for bank returns beyond what a U.S. market index does. Finally, we find no bank characteristic that allows us to consistently predict the effect of the Greek crisis on specific banks.

本研究对希腊债务危机对美国商业银行股票收益的影响进行实证分析。我们发现,与希腊债务危机有关的好消息(坏消息)事件,由希腊CDS价差的大幅变化确定,产生微不足道的正(负)异常股票回报。虽然银行有希腊债务敞口,但它们的敞口是如此之大,以至于在危机最严重的时候,没有导致银行价值出现任何异常波动。当我们衡量银行回报对希腊CDS价差变化的敏感性,以衡量银行对危机的敞口时,我们发现希腊CDS价差的变化除了美国市场指数之外,没有为银行回报提供额外的解释力。最后,我们发现没有任何银行特征能让我们始终如一地预测希腊危机对特定银行的影响。
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引用次数: 3
The Role of Sovereign Ratings in M&A Markets: Empirical Evidence from Latin America and South East Asia 主权评级在并购市场中的作用:来自拉丁美洲和东南亚的经验证据
Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2016-01-19 DOI: 10.1111/fmii.12034
Janna Mai Nguyen, Dodo zu Knyphausen-Aufseß

Sovereign ratings have not only been regarded as an indicator of country risk for foreign investors, but also as a determining factor for capital market conditions of domestic firms. Although they have attracted growing interest in academic research, the extant literature has so far rendered only minor attention to their role in corporate strategic investment decisions. This paper focuses on the influence of sovereign ratings on domestic and cross-border M&A decisions in a sample of Latin American and South East Asian countries. The empirical results lend support to the proposition that sovereign ratings condition the level of activity in domestic M&A markets as well as the attractiveness of domestic M&A targets for foreign acquirers. Moreover, the foreign bidders’ choice of ownership stakes in acquisitions appears to be affected. The paper thus highlights the relevance of sovereign ratings as a country-level factor to be considered in studies of corporate investment behavior.

主权评级不仅被外国投资者视为国家风险的指标,而且也被视为国内企业资本市场状况的决定因素。尽管它们在学术研究中引起了越来越大的兴趣,但迄今为止,现有文献对它们在企业战略投资决策中的作用的关注很少。本文以拉美和东南亚国家为样本,重点研究主权评级对国内和跨境并购决策的影响。实证结果支持了主权评级决定国内并购市场活动水平以及国内并购目标对外国收购者的吸引力这一命题。此外,外国竞标者对收购股权的选择似乎也受到了影响。因此,本文强调了主权评级作为企业投资行为研究中需要考虑的国家层面因素的相关性。
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引用次数: 1
The Technology of Ratings Then and Now; Hiding in Plain Sight 评级技术的过去与现在隐藏在众目睽睽之下
Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2016-01-19 DOI: 10.1111/fmii.12035
Berry K. Wilson, John T. Donnellan
The subprime crisis seriously undermined the credibility of the rating agencies and their approach to analyzing credit risk. Along with other identified problems with bond ratings, this study investigates the issue that the technology used by the ratings agencies is at best dated and little changed since John Moody published his first bond ratings in 1909. The study compares the predictive accuracy of Moody's bond ratings with the structural modeling approach of Vassalou and Xing (2004), using railroad data from the Great Depression. Study results show that the structural modeling approach outperforms the expert judgment incorporated in Moody's bond ratings from that period.
次贷危机严重损害了评级机构的信誉及其分析信用风险的方法。除了债券评级存在的其他问题外,本研究还调查了评级机构使用的技术自1909年约翰·穆迪(John Moody)发布他的第一份债券评级以来,充其量已经过时,几乎没有变化的问题。该研究使用大萧条时期的铁路数据,将穆迪债券评级的预测准确性与Vassalou和Xing(2004)的结构建模方法进行了比较。研究结果表明,结构建模方法优于该时期穆迪债券评级中纳入的专家判断。
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引用次数: 1
Understanding the Components of Bank Failure Resolution Costs 了解银行破产解决成本的组成部分
Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2015-11-09 DOI: 10.1111/fmii.12031
Rosalind L. Bennett, Haluk Unal

In this paper, we demonstrate how the resolution costs associated with over 1,000 bank failures from 1986 to 2007 are distributed across the method of resolution, bank size, regulatory periods, and the existence of fraud. In addition, we document the time spent in the resolution by the resolution method and legislative period. Finally, we show how various classes of claimants against the failed banks bear the costs of the failure.

在本文中,我们展示了从1986年到2007年与1000多家银行倒闭相关的解决成本如何分布在解决方法、银行规模、监管期限和欺诈的存在上。此外,我们还按决议方式和立法期限记录了决议所花费的时间。最后,我们展示了针对破产银行的各种索赔人是如何承担破产成本的。
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引用次数: 48
Estimating Portfolio Credit Losses in Downturns 估计经济低迷时期的投资组合信贷损失
Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2015-11-09 DOI: 10.1111/fmii.12033
Fernando F. Moreira
This paper suggests formulas able to capture potential strong connection among credit losses in downturns without assuming any specific distribution for the variables involved. We first show that the current model adopted by regulators (Basel) is equivalent to a conditional distribution derived from the Gaussian Copula (which does not identify tail dependence). We then use conditional distributions derived from copulas that express tail dependence (stronger dependence across higher losses) to estimate the probability of credit losses in extreme scenarios (crises). Next, we use data on historical credit losses incurred in American banks to compare the suggested approach to the Basel formula with respect to their performance when predicting the extreme losses observed in 2009 and 2010. Our results indicate that, in general, the copula approach outperforms the Basel method in two of the three credit segments investigated. The proposed method is extendable to other differentiable copula families and this gives flexibility to future practical applications of the model.
本文提出的公式能够捕捉到经济衰退中信贷损失之间潜在的紧密联系,而无需假设所涉及变量的任何特定分布。我们首先表明,监管机构(巴塞尔)采用的当前模型相当于从高斯Copula(不识别尾部依赖性)导出的条件分布。然后,我们使用从表示尾部依赖性(越高的损失越强的依赖性)的copula衍生的条件分布来估计极端情景(危机)中信用损失的概率。接下来,我们使用美国银行发生的历史信贷损失数据,将建议的方法与巴塞尔公式在预测2009年和2010年观察到的极端损失时的表现进行比较。我们的结果表明,一般来说,copula方法在调查的三个信贷部分中的两个优于巴塞尔方法。该方法可推广到其他可微联结族,为今后模型的实际应用提供了灵活性。
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引用次数: 0
Trading and Investing in Volatility Products 波动性产品的交易和投资
Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2015-10-12 DOI: 10.1111/fmii.12032
Carol Alexander, Julia Kapraun, Dimitris Korovilas

Since the banking crisis the market for volatility exchange-traded products has developed rapidly as it opens to clients beyond the large institutional investor pool. Speculation is driven by increasingly complex leveraged and inverse exposures including those that attempt to trade on significant roll costs in volatility futures curves. Longer-term investors use these products for the purposes of equity diversification, driven by fears of an ongoing Eurozone crisis. We survey the burgeoning academic literature in this area and present a comprehensive and up-to-date comparison of the market and statistical characteristics of European and US exchange-traded volatility products.

自银行业危机以来,随着波动性交易所交易产品(etf)向大型机构投资者以外的客户开放,市场得到了迅速发展。投机行为是由日益复杂的杠杆和反向敞口驱动的,包括那些试图在波动率期货曲线上进行重大滚动成本交易的敞口。长期投资者出于对持续的欧元区危机的担忧,将这些产品用于股票分散投资。我们调查了这一领域新兴的学术文献,并对欧洲和美国交易所交易波动率产品的市场和统计特征进行了全面和最新的比较。
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引用次数: 34
On Regulatory Responses to the Recent Crisis: An Assessment of the Basel Market Risk Framework and the Volcker Rule 对最近危机的监管反应:对巴塞尔市场风险框架和沃尔克规则的评估
Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2015-04-06 DOI: 10.1111/fmii.12025
Gordon J. Alexander, Alexandre M. Baptista, Shu Yan

Banks around the world suffered huge trading losses in the recent crisis. In response, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (2011a) provides a revised framework to determine the minimum capital requirements for their trading portfolios. Moreover, the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (2010) imposes certain restrictions on the composition of the trading portfolios of U.S. banks through the ‘Volcker Rule.’ Our paper assesses the effectiveness of the Basel framework and the Volcker Rule in preventing banks from taking substantive tail risk in their trading portfolios without capital requirement penalties. We find that the Basel framework is ineffective in preventing banks from doing so, but that the Volcker Rule is beneficial in that it partially mitigates this ineffectiveness. We also suggest two alternatives to the Basel framework and discuss the impact of the Volcker Rule if either one of them is adopted.

世界各地的银行在最近的危机中遭受了巨大的交易损失。作为回应,巴塞尔银行监管委员会(2011)提供了一个修订框架,以确定其交易组合的最低资本要求。此外,多德-弗兰克华尔街改革和消费者保护法案(2010)通过“沃尔克规则”对美国银行的交易组合构成进行了一定的限制。我们的论文评估了巴塞尔框架和沃尔克规则在防止银行在没有资本要求处罚的情况下在其交易组合中承担实质性尾部风险方面的有效性。我们发现,巴塞尔框架在阻止银行这样做方面是无效的,但沃尔克规则是有益的,因为它在一定程度上减轻了这种无效性。我们还提出了巴塞尔框架的两种替代方案,并讨论了如果采用其中任何一种,沃尔克规则的影响。
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引用次数: 6
A New Data Set On Competition In National Banking Markets 国家银行市场竞争的新数据集
Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2015-04-06 DOI: 10.1111/fmii.12030
Sofronis Clerides, Manthos D. Delis, Sotirios Kokas

We estimate the degree of competition in the banking sectors of 148 countries over the period 1997–2010 using three methods: the Lerner index, the adjusted Lerner index, and the profit elasticity. Marginal cost estimates required for all methods are obtained using a flexible semi-parametric methodology. All three indices show that competitive conditions in banking deteriorated during the period 1997–2006, improved until 2008, and deteriorated again thereafter. Levels of competition differ across regions and income groups, but there is gradual convergence over time. Banking system is less competitive in sub-Saharan Africa and low income countries and more competitive in Europe and Central and South Asia and OECD countries.

本文采用勒纳指数、调整后的勒纳指数和利润弹性三种方法对1997-2010年间148个国家银行业的竞争程度进行了估计。所有方法所需的边际成本估算都是使用灵活的半参数方法获得的。所有三个指数都表明,银行业的竞争环境在1997-2006年期间恶化,到2008年有所改善,此后再次恶化。竞争水平因地区和收入群体而异,但随着时间的推移逐渐趋同。撒哈拉以南非洲和低收入国家的银行体系竞争力较弱,而欧洲、中亚和南亚以及经合组织国家的银行体系竞争力较强。
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引用次数: 0
Governance Quality and Information Asymmetry 治理质量与信息不对称
Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2015-04-06 DOI: 10.1111/fmii.12026
Ahmed Elbadry, Dimitrios Gounopoulos, Frank Skinner

This paper explores the relation between corporate governance and asymmetric information. We find that proxies for governance mechanisms that encourage the monitoring of managers are inversely related to proxies for asymmetric information. Specifically, greater board independence, board activeness and debt financing are significantly and inversely related to the degree of asymmetric information as reflected in bid-ask spreads, volatility of share returns, normalised share trade volumes and market value of shares traded. This implies that corporate governance mechanisms that enhance managerial monitoring lead to improvements in the informational environment of the firm.

本文探讨了公司治理与信息不对称的关系。我们发现,鼓励对管理者进行监督的治理机制的代理与信息不对称的代理呈负相关。具体而言,更大的董事会独立性、董事会活跃度和债务融资与信息不对称程度呈显著负相关,这体现在买卖价差、股票收益波动性、正常化股票交易量和交易股票市值上。这意味着加强管理监督的公司治理机制会导致公司信息环境的改善。
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引用次数: 0
The Signaling Effect of Durations between Equity and Debt Issues 股票和债券发行期限的信号效应
Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2015-04-06 DOI: 10.1111/fmii.12027
Pawel Bilinski, Abdulkadir Mohamed

This study examines whether durations between equity and debt offerings allow investors to identify firms that are more likely to time issues of overvalued securities. We show that firms with higher stock overpricing are more likely to quickly issue both seasoned equity and debt following the previous capital acquisition. Investors understand issuers’ incentives to quickly return to the capital market and react less favorably to equity and debt issues that follow shortly after the previous offering. Together, the results show that durations between equity and debt issues provide valuable signals to investors on whether the issuer is likely to be timing the market.

本研究考察了股票和债券发行之间的持续时间是否允许投资者识别更有可能确定高估证券发行时间的公司。我们发现,股票定价过高的公司更有可能在之前的资本收购后迅速发行经验丰富的股票和债券。投资者理解发行人想要迅速重返资本市场的动机,对上一次发行后不久的股票和债券发行反应不那么积极。总之,研究结果表明,股票和债券发行之间的持续时间为投资者提供了有价值的信号,说明发行人是否有可能把握市场时机。
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引用次数: 4
期刊
Financial Markets, Institutions and Instruments
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