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Measuring and Decomposing Output Gap: A Production Function Approach of the USA and EU-27 Countries 产出缺口的测度与分解:美国与欧盟27国的生产函数方法
Pub Date : 2012-10-03 DOI: 10.15208/PIEB.2012.13
D. Máté, Julianna Csugány
The ICT-based techno-economic paradigm shift was sharpened by income inequalities in all over the world. The economic performance of USA and Europe were seemed to more different thanks to global economic events. The main purpose of this study is to estimate various macroeconomic variables such as GDP and labour for the period of 1993-2013. In order to indicate economic growth an alternative growth accounting method was used to decompose impacts of physical capital accumulation, technological changes and labour. Analysing the time series data of various OECD countries we could conclude that a large part of the variations in the output gap stem from the cyclical variations of total labour input and the total factor productivity (TFP). Hence, our results were reflected the relevance of technological progress.
世界各地的收入不平等加剧了基于信息通信技术的技术经济范式转变。由于全球经济事件,美国和欧洲的经济表现似乎更加不同。本研究的主要目的是估计1993-2013年期间的各种宏观经济变量,如GDP和劳动力。为了表明经济增长,一种替代的增长会计方法被用来分解物质资本积累,技术变革和劳动力的影响。通过分析各经合组织国家的时间序列数据,我们可以得出结论,产出缺口的变化很大程度上源于总劳动投入和全要素生产率(TFP)的周期性变化。因此,我们的结果反映了技术进步的相关性。
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引用次数: 1
The Common Error of Common Sense: An Essential Rectification of the Accounting Approach 常识的普遍错误:会计方法的必要修正
Pub Date : 2012-08-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2153218
Egmont Kakarot-Handtke
The present paper takes the explanatory superiority of the integrated monetaryapproach for granted. It will be demonstrated that the accounting approachcould do even better provided it frees itself from theoretically ill-foundednotions like GDP and other artifacts of the equilibrium approach. Nationalaccounting as such does not provide a model of the economy but is the numericalreflex of the underlying theory. It is this theory that will be scrutinized,rectified and ultimately replaced in the following. The formal point of referenceis ‘the integrated approach to credit, money, income, production andwealth’ of Godley and Lavoie.
本文认为综合货币方法的解释性优势是理所当然的。它将证明,会计方法可以做得更好,只要它从理论上没有根据的概念,如GDP和均衡方法的其他人工制品中解脱出来。国民核算本身并不提供经济模型,而是基础理论的数字反映。正是这一理论将在下文中被仔细审查、纠正并最终取代。正式的参考点是Godley和Lavoie的“信贷、货币、收入、生产和财富的综合方法”。
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引用次数: 5
The Validity of Consumption Data: Are the Consumer Expenditure Interview and Diary Surveys Informative? 消费数据的有效性:消费者支出访谈和日记调查是否有用?
Adam Bee, Bruce D. Meyer, James X. Sullivan
This paper examines the quality of data collected in the Consumer Expenditure (CE) Survey, which is the source for the Consumer Price Index weights and is the main source of U.S. consumption microdata. We compare reported spending on a large number of categories of goods and services to comparable national income account data. We do this separately for the two components of the CE--the Interview Survey and the Diary Survey--rather than a combination that has been used in past comparisons. We find that most of the largest categories of consumption are measured well in the Interview Survey as the ratio to the national account data is close to one and has not declined appreciably over time. Several other large categories are reported at a low rate or have seen the ratio to the national accounts decline over time. The results are less encouraging for the Diary Survey. There is no large Diary category that is both measured well and reported at a higher rate than in the Interview Survey. We also compare the ownership of and the value of durables, such as homes and cars, in the CE to other sources. This evidence suggests the CE performs fairly well. Based on observable characteristics, the CE Survey appears to be fairly representative, although there is strong evidence of under-representation at the top of the income distribution and under-reporting of income and expenditures at the top. We then examine the precision of the two surveys and the frequency of no spending overall or for a given spending category. In the Diary Survey, we find much greater dispersion in spending and the dispersion relative to the Interview Survey varies across goods and over time. Diary respondents are much more likely to report zero spending for a consumption category, and a high and increasing fraction of respondents reporting zero for all categories. These results suggest that using Diary data to assess inequality trends and other distributional outcomes is likely to lead to biased and misleading results. Our results have important implications for interpreting and properly using CE data and how best to redesign the CE.
本文考察了消费者支出(CE)调查中收集的数据的质量,这是消费者价格指数权重的来源,也是美国消费微观数据的主要来源。我们将报告的大量商品和服务类别的支出与可比的国民收入账户数据进行比较。我们分别对行政长官的两个组成部分——访谈调查和日记调查——而不是在过去的比较中使用的组合。我们发现,在访谈调查中,大多数最大的消费类别都得到了很好的衡量,因为与国民账户数据的比率接近于1,并且没有随着时间的推移而明显下降。其他几个大类别的报告率很低,或者与国民账户的比率随着时间的推移而下降。日记调查的结果就不那么令人鼓舞了。没有一个大的日记类别既能很好地测量,又能比访谈调查报告的比率更高。我们还比较了CE中房屋和汽车等耐用品的所有权和价值与其他来源的比较。这一证据表明特首的表现相当不错。根据可观察到的特点,行政长官调查似乎具有相当的代表性,尽管有强有力的证据表明,收入分配顶层的代表性不足,顶层的收入和支出报告不足。然后,我们检查了两个调查的准确性,以及总体上没有支出或特定支出类别的频率。在日记调查中,我们发现消费的分散性要大得多,而且与访谈调查相比,分散性因商品和时间而异。日记本受访者更有可能在某一消费类别中报告零支出,而且越来越多的受访者在所有类别中报告零支出。这些结果表明,使用日记数据来评估不平等趋势和其他分配结果可能会导致有偏见和误导性的结果。我们的研究结果对于解释和正确使用CE数据以及如何最好地重新设计CE具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 98
Pollution, Private Investment in Healthcare, and Environmental Policy 污染、医疗保健的私人投资和环境政策
Pub Date : 2012-06-01 DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9442.2012.01696.x
X. Pautrel
In this paper, we demonstrate that, in a two‐period overlapping‐generations model, the relationship between environmental taxation and economic activity (output level and growth) has an inverted‐U shape when we take into account the detrimental impact of pollution on health and the individual decision of each working‐age agent to improve her health. We also demonstrate that the link between environmental tax and lifetime welfare also has an inverted‐U shape, and that a tighter environmental policy might enhance economic activity while reducing steady‐state lifetime welfare. Finally, we investigate the social optimum and the determinants of the optimal environmental tax.
在本文中,我们证明了,在一个两期重叠代模型中,当我们考虑到污染对健康的有害影响和每个工作年龄主体的个人决策以改善她的健康时,环境税收与经济活动(产出水平和增长)之间的关系呈倒U形。我们还证明了环境税和终身福利之间的联系也是倒U形的,并且更严格的环境政策可能会促进经济活动,同时降低稳态终身福利。最后,我们研究了社会最优环境税及其决定因素。
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引用次数: 26
Life‐Cycle Patterns of Interest‐Rate Mark‐Ups in Small‐Firm Finance 小企业融资中利率上升的生命周期模式
Pub Date : 2012-06-01 DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9442.2011.01688.x
Moshe Kim, E. G. Kristiansen, Bent Vale
We derive empirical implications from a theoretical model of bank–borrower relationships. The interest-rate mark-ups of banks are predicted to follow a life-cycle pattern over the age of the borrowing firms. Because of endogenous bank monitoring by competing banks, borrowing firms initially face a low mark-up, and thereafter an increasing mark-up as a result of informational lock-in, until it falls for older firms when the lock-in is resolved. By applying a large sample of predominantly small unlisted firms and a new measure of asymmetric information, we find that firms with significant asymmetric-information problems have a more pronounced life-cycle pattern of interest-rate mark-ups. Additionally, we examine the effects of concentrated banking markets on interest-rate mark-ups. The results indicate that the life cycle of mark-ups is mainly driven by asymmetric-information problems and not by concentration. However, we find evidence that bank market concentration matters for older firms†
我们从银行-借款人关系的理论模型中得出经验意义。据预测,随着借款公司的年龄增长,银行的利率加价将遵循一种生命周期模式。由于竞争银行的内生银行监督,借款公司最初面临低加价,随后由于信息锁定而增加加价,直到锁定解决后,老公司的加价下降。通过应用以小型非上市公司为主的大样本和一种新的信息不对称度量,我们发现存在严重信息不对称问题的公司具有更明显的利率加价的生命周期模式。此外,我们还研究了集中化银行市场对利率加价的影响。结果表明,加价的生命周期主要是由信息不对称问题驱动的,而不是由集中驱动的。然而,我们发现证据表明,银行市场集中度对老公司†有影响
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引用次数: 12
Monetary Union and Pegging in the Presence of Labor Unions 工会存在下的货币联盟与挂钩
Pub Date : 2012-06-01 DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9442.2012.01702.x
A. Korpos
As the European Economic and Monetary Union grows, power over monetary policy is shifting away from the original founders. Previously, researchers have analyzed the impact of replacing an exchange-rate peg with a monetary union in the presence of labor unions. In these studies, the authors have consistently concluded that unemployment in the country that originally controlled monetary policy will rise, although they cite very different reasons. In this paper, we present a more general model that reproduces the previous results in special cases and clarifies the relations across the results. In addition, the more general model shows that the results are reversed in certain conditions.
随着欧洲经济与货币联盟(European Economic and Monetary Union)的发展,货币政策的决定权正从最初的创始国手中转移。此前,研究人员分析了在工会存在的情况下用货币联盟取代汇率挂钩的影响。在这些研究中,作者一致认为,最初控制货币政策的国家的失业率将上升,尽管他们引用了非常不同的原因。在本文中,我们提出了一个更一般的模型,在特殊情况下再现了以前的结果,并澄清了结果之间的关系。此外,更一般的模型表明,在某些条件下,结果是相反的。
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引用次数: 0
Agriculture and Its Integration with National Accounts Statistics: The Indian Case 农业及其与国民经济核算统计的整合:印度案例
Pub Date : 2012-04-23 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2091496
Ankush Agarwal, A. Mitra
This paper examines the select domains of database on agriculture in India and its use in the national accounts statistics. Though the share of agriculture in total value added has declined considerably to less than a quarter at the national level, several states are still agriculture-dependent. Besides, agriculture provides sources of livelihood to more than half of the total work force. Hence, the reliability of agricultural statistics and their integration to national accounts are of great significance from the productivity and sustainability point of view. The paper examines the methods and sources used to collect statistics on acreage and yield of agricultural crops and also their limitations. It also discusses evolution of the national accounts statistics in India and treatment of the agriculture sector therein. The paper concludes, highlighting some of the problems related to the treatment of the agriculture sector in the national accounts in its present form. In suggesting that the services sector value added has expanded much faster than that in the agriculture sector, many issues such as, how well the agriculture sector data compare and can be integrated with the value added originating from the industrial sector or the services sector, need to be tackled very carefully.
本文考察了印度农业数据库的选择领域及其在国民核算统计中的使用。尽管在全国范围内,农业在总增加值中所占的份额已大幅下降至不足四分之一,但仍有几个州依赖农业。此外,农业为一半以上的劳动力提供了生计来源。因此,从生产力和可持续性的角度来看,农业统计的可靠性及其与国民核算的整合具有重要意义。本文考察了用于统计农作物种植面积和产量的方法和来源,以及它们的局限性。它还讨论了印度国民核算统计的演变及其对农业部门的处理。论文最后强调了目前形式的国民核算中与农业部门的待遇有关的一些问题。在提出服务业增加值的增长速度远快于农业部门的同时,许多问题,如农业部门的数据如何与工业部门或服务业的增加值进行比较和整合,需要非常仔细地解决。
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引用次数: 0
The Euro Crisis and the Job Guarantee: A Proposal for Ireland 欧元危机与就业保障:对爱尔兰的建议
Pub Date : 2012-02-17 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2007283
L. Randall Wray
Euroland is in a crisis that is slowly but surely spreading from one periphery country to another; it will eventually reach the center. The blame is mostly heaped upon supposedly profligate consumption by Mediterraneans. But that surely cannot apply to Ireland and Iceland. In both cases, these nations adopted the neoliberal attitude toward banks that was pushed by policymakers in Europe and America, with disastrous results. The banks blew up in a speculative fever and then expected their governments to absorb all the losses. The situation was similar in the United States, but in our case the debts were in dollars and our sovereign currency issuer simply spent, lent, and guaranteed 29 trillion dollars' worth of bad bank decisions. Even in our case it was a huge mistake—but it was "affordable." Ireland and Iceland were not so lucky, as their bank debts were in "foreign" currencies. By this I mean that even though Irish bank debt was in euros, the Government of Ireland had given up its own currency in favor of what is essentially a foreign currency-the euro, which is issued by the European Central Bank (ECB). Every euro issued in Ireland is ultimately convertible, one to one, to an ECB euro. There is neither the possibility of depreciating the Irish euro nor the possibility of creating ECB euros as necessary to meet demands for clearing. Ireland is in a situation similar to that of Argentina a decade ago, when it adopted a currency board based on the US dollar. And yet the authorities demand more austerity, to further reduce growth rates. As both Ireland and Greece have found out, austerity does not mean reduced budget deficits, because tax revenues fall faster than spending can be cut. Indeed, as I write this, Athens has exploded in riots. Is there an alternative path? In this piece I argue that there is. First, I quickly summarize the financial foibles of Iceland and Ireland. I will then-also quickly-summarize the case for debt relief or default. Then I will present a program of direct job creation that could put Ireland on the path to recovery. Understanding the financial problems and solutions puts the jobs program proposal in the proper perspective: a full implementation of a job guarantee cannot occur within the current financial arrangements. Still, something can be done.
欧元区正处于一场危机之中,这场危机正在缓慢但肯定地从一个外围国家蔓延到另一个;它最终会到达中心。这主要归咎于地中海人所谓的挥霍无度。但这肯定不适用于爱尔兰和冰岛。在这两种情况下,这些国家对欧洲和美国的政策制定者所推动的银行采取了新自由主义的态度,结果是灾难性的。银行在投机狂热中崩溃,然后指望政府来承担所有损失。美国的情况也类似,但我们的债务是以美元计价的,我们的主权货币发行者只是花费、放贷和担保了价值29万亿美元的银行坏账。即使在我们的情况下,这也是一个巨大的错误,但它是“负担得起的”。爱尔兰和冰岛就没那么幸运了,因为它们的银行债务都是“外币”。我的意思是,尽管爱尔兰银行的债务是以欧元计价的,但爱尔兰政府已经放弃了自己的货币,转而使用本质上是一种外币——由欧洲中央银行(ECB)发行的欧元。爱尔兰发行的每一欧元最终都可以兑换成欧洲央行的欧元。既不存在爱尔兰欧元贬值的可能性,也不存在创造必要的欧洲央行欧元以满足清算需求的可能性。爱尔兰目前的处境与10年前的阿根廷类似,当时阿根廷采用了以美元为基础的货币发行局。然而,当局要求更多的紧缩措施,以进一步降低增长率。正如爱尔兰和希腊所发现的那样,紧缩并不意味着削减预算赤字,因为税收收入的下降速度快于削减支出的速度。事实上,就在我写这篇文章的时候,雅典已经爆发了骚乱。还有其他的选择吗?在这篇文章中,我认为有。首先,我快速总结一下冰岛和爱尔兰的金融弱点。我将迅速总结一下债务减免或违约的理由。然后,我将提出一个直接创造就业机会的计划,使爱尔兰走上复苏之路。了解财政问题和解决办法,使就业计划提案处于正确的角度:在目前的财政安排下,就业保障的全面实施是不可能发生的。不过,还是有办法的。
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引用次数: 4
Revisiting Business Cycle Synchronisation in the European Union 重新审视欧盟的商业周期同步
Pub Date : 2010-11-26 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1715851
António Afonso, Ana Sequeira
We assess the business cycle synchronization features of aggregate output in the 27 EU countries using annual data for the period 1970-2009. In particular, we compute measures of synchronisation for private consumption, government spending, gross fixed capital formation, exports and imports. Our results show a rise in synchronization over the full period, and although private consumption is the biggest component of GDP, external demand tends to be a more important determinant of business cycle synchronization.
我们使用1970-2009年期间的年度数据评估了27个欧盟国家总产出的商业周期同步特征。特别是,我们计算了私人消费、政府支出、固定资本形成总额、出口和进口的同步指标。我们的研究结果显示,在整个时期内,经济周期的同步性有所上升,尽管私人消费是GDP的最大组成部分,但外部需求往往是商业周期同步性的更重要决定因素。
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引用次数: 23
Intellectual Capital and Value Creation in the Production and Assembly of Vehicles and Auto-Parts Sector in Brazil 巴西汽车及汽车零部件生产和装配行业的智力资本与价值创造
Pub Date : 2009-11-13 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1505522
L. C. Basso, H. Kimura, J. F. Aguiar
This work investigates the relationship between intellectual capital and value creation in the sector of Production and Assembly of Vehicles and Auto-parts in Brazil. Through the access of the database from the Annual Industrial Research conducted by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, we gathered 865 observations, from 2000 to 2006, of public and private Brazilian companies with more than 100 employees. The database allows the estimate of relevant aggregated variables such as national accounts, gross domestic product, intermediate consumption, as well as propitiates a sectorial study of business strategies and performance, including value added by individual companies. In particular, in this study we use data on variables associated to intellectual capital. To achieve the goal of the study, we consider intellectual capital as defined by Pulic (2000, 2002), including human capital and structural capital. For the analysis of business performance, we used Pulic’s VAIC index as a measure of efficiency of the employed financial and intellectual capital. Regression models were run to verify the relationship among the efficiency in the use of intellectual capital and the profitability of Brazilian companies. The gross income, calculated as before selling, general and administrative expenses, depreciation expenses, amortization and interest expenses, was used as measure of the flows of value creation and the profitability was measured by the gross income to the total assets of the companies. Considering the constructs defined by Pulic (2000, 2002), we tested, for the Brazilian sector of Production and Assembly of Vehicles and Auto-parts, the following hypotheses: (i) there is a positive relationship between value creation and intellectual capital, (ii) there is a positive relationship between value creation and stock of intellectual capital, (iii) there is a positive relationship between value creation and efficiency of the employed capital , (iv) there is a positive relationship between value creation and efficiency of the human capital, (v) there is a positive relationship between value creation and efficiency of the structural capital. The results of the study, obtained through panel data analysis and through the use static and dynamic models, support the hypotheses that the intellectual capital of the companies, in its flow and stock dimensions, is positively and significantly related to value creation.
这项工作调查了巴西汽车和汽车零部件生产和组装部门的智力资本与价值创造之间的关系。通过访问巴西地理与统计研究所进行的年度工业研究数据库,我们收集了2000年至2006年期间865项观察结果,这些观察结果来自巴西拥有100名以上员工的公共和私营公司。该数据库可以估算相关的综合变量,如国民账户、国内生产总值(gdp)、中间消费,并有助于对企业战略和业绩(包括个别公司的增加值)进行部门研究。特别是,在本研究中,我们使用了与智力资本相关的变量数据。为了实现研究目标,我们考虑public(2000,2002)定义的智力资本,包括人力资本和结构资本。对于企业绩效的分析,我们使用public的VAIC指数作为使用财务资本和智力资本效率的衡量标准。运用回归模型验证巴西企业智力资本使用效率与盈利能力之间的关系。以出售前计算的总收入、一般和管理费用、折旧费用、摊销和利息费用,被用作衡量价值创造流量的指标,而盈利能力则由公司总资产的总收入来衡量。考虑到public(2000,2002)定义的结构,我们测试了巴西汽车和汽车零部件生产和组装部门的以下假设:(1)价值创造与智力资本之间存在正相关关系,(2)价值创造与智力资本存量之间存在正相关关系,(3)价值创造与使用资本效率之间存在正相关关系,(4)价值创造与人力资本效率之间存在正相关关系,(5)价值创造与结构资本效率之间存在正相关关系通过面板数据分析,并通过静态和动态模型的使用,研究结果支持假设,即公司的智力资本,在其流量和库存维度上,与价值创造呈正相关且显著。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
ERN: Other Macroeconomics: National Income & Product Accounts (Topic)
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