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Spatial Heterogeneity in the Severity of COVID-19 Pandemic in India 印度COVID-19大流行严重程度的空间异质性
IF 1.5 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.1142/s0116110523500051
Nidhi Kaicker, R. Gaiha, R. Aggarwal
The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has affected all states and union territories in India, but the spread of infections and the fatality rate across regions have been disproportionate. In this study, inequalities in the severity of the pandemic are examined for a 15-month period, covering both the first and second waves of the virus, using alternate measures based on the official estimates of deaths from COVID-19 as a ratio of all-cause mortality. The observed differences in the severity indicators are explained using socioeconomic, meteorological, and geographical factors. A comparison of severity ratios across states and over time gives a region-specific flavor of the severity of the pandemic and increases understanding of the pressure points in the health system. Our findings are helpful for public health professionals to develop control measures and plan environmental and health policies as an alternative strategy to respond to new COVID-19 outbreaks and prevent future crises.
冠状病毒疾病(新冠肺炎)大流行已影响到印度所有邦和联邦地区,但各地区的感染传播和死亡率不成比例。在这项研究中,使用基于新冠肺炎死亡人数与全因死亡率之比的官方估计的替代措施,对疫情严重程度的不平等进行了为期15个月的研究,涵盖了第一波和第二波病毒。使用社会经济、气象和地理因素来解释严重程度指标中观察到的差异。对各州和一段时间内的严重程度比率进行比较,可以了解特定地区的疫情严重程度,并加深对卫生系统压力点的了解。我们的研究结果有助于公共卫生专业人员制定控制措施,规划环境和卫生政策,作为应对新的新冠肺炎疫情和预防未来危机的替代策略。
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引用次数: 0
Home-Based Work Decisions among Bangladeshi Women 孟加拉国妇女在家工作的决定
IF 1.5 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.1142/s0116110523500026
T. M. TONMOY ISLAM, Aphichoke Kotikula
Between 2003 and 2015, the labor force participation rate of women in Bangladesh increased from 26.0% to 35.6%. On further analysis, we find that much of this gain was due to an increasing number of women working from home. We use the model proposed by Edwards and Field-Hendrey (2002) to study the supply-side factors that affect the location-of-work decision of Bangladeshi women. Afterward, we use a simplified version of the decomposition technique devised by Bourguignon, Ferreira, and Leite (2008) to see which factors are driving women to work from home. Our analysis shows that the rising wealth of Bangladeshi households is associated with the rising number of women choosing to work from home. This trend is prevalent among urban and rural women, and among women in different age groups. We also find that married young women are more likely to work from home.
2003年至2015年间,孟加拉国妇女的劳动力参与率从26.0%上升到35.6%。进一步分析,我们发现这一增长很大程度上是由于越来越多的女性在家工作。我们使用Edwards和field - hendry(2002)提出的模型来研究影响孟加拉国妇女工作地点决策的供给侧因素。之后,我们使用由Bourguignon, Ferreira和Leite(2008)设计的分解技术的简化版本来查看哪些因素驱使女性在家工作。我们的分析表明,孟加拉国家庭财富的增加与越来越多的女性选择在家工作有关。这一趋势在城市和农村妇女以及不同年龄组的妇女中普遍存在。我们还发现,已婚年轻女性更有可能在家工作。
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引用次数: 0
Not All That It Seems: Narrowing of Gender Gaps in Employment During the Onset of COVID-19 in Indonesia 并非所有看起来的那样:印度尼西亚在COVID-19发病期间缩小就业中的性别差距
IF 1.5 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-10337
D. Halim, Sean Hambali, R. Purnamasari
This paper studies the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on Indonesia’s labor market, using the exogenous timing of the pandemic in a seasonal difference-in-differences framework. We use multiple rounds of Indonesia’s National Labor Force Survey to establish a pre-pandemic employment trend and attribute any difference from this trend to the estimated effect of the pandemic on employment outcomes. We find mixed impacts of the pandemic on Indonesia’s labor market. While the pandemic has reduced the gender gap in employment participation due to the “added worker effect” among women, it has also lowered overall employment quality among both women and men. The increase in female employment was mainly driven by women in rural areas without a high school education entering either informal agricultural employment or unpaid family work. For men, the pandemic had negative employment impacts for all subgroups. Among the employed, both women and men work fewer hours and earn lower wages.
本文采用季节性差异中的差异框架,利用疫情的外生时间,研究了COVID-19大流行对印尼劳动力市场的影响。我们利用多轮印度尼西亚全国劳动力调查来确定大流行前的就业趋势,并将这种趋势的任何差异归因于大流行对就业结果的估计影响。我们发现疫情对印尼劳动力市场的影响是复杂的。虽然由于妇女的"附加工人效应",大流行病缩小了就业参与方面的性别差距,但它也降低了妇女和男子的总体就业质量。妇女就业增加的主要原因是农村地区没有受过高中教育的妇女进入非正规农业就业或从事无报酬的家务劳动。对男性来说,这一流行病对所有亚群体的就业都产生了负面影响。在就业人群中,男女工作时间都更短,工资也更低。
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引用次数: 1
Impact of Population Aging on Asia’s Future Economic Growth, 2021–2050 人口老龄化对亚洲未来经济增长的影响(2021-2050
IF 1.5 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.1142/s0116110523500014
Donghyun Park, Kwanho Shin
Developing Asia has grown faster than other parts of the world for decades. However, population aging is expected to pose significant headwinds to the region’s future economic growth. We update and enhance the analysis of Park and Shin (2012) to project the impact of population aging on developing Asia’s growth between 2021 and 2050. Our projections indicate that a demographic transition will have a substantial negative effect on the region’s future growth, but the effect varies across economies. Older economies will suffer a demographic tax, whereas younger economies will continue to enjoy a positive but declining demographic dividend.
几十年来,亚洲发展中国家的经济增长速度一直快于世界其他地区。然而,人口老龄化预计将对该地区未来的经济增长构成重大阻力。我们更新并加强了Park和Shin(2012)的分析,以预测2021年至2050年期间人口老龄化对发展中亚洲经济增长的影响。我们的预测表明,人口结构的转变将对该地区未来的增长产生重大的负面影响,但影响因经济体而异。较老的经济体将遭受人口税,而较年轻的经济体将继续享受积极但不断下降的人口红利。
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引用次数: 0
Income Shocks, Borrowing Constraints, and Household Child Schooling: Evidence from Rural Thailand 收入冲击、借贷限制和家庭子女上学:来自泰国农村的证据
IF 1.5 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.1142/s011611052350004x
Sasiwooth Wongmonta
In rural areas of developing countries, shocks and financial constraints on households are generally recognized as obstacles to children’s schooling opportunities. This paper investigates the effects of income shocks and borrowing constraints on household demand for education in rural Thailand, using the Townsend Thai panel data spanning from 2013 to 2017. Information on annual rainfall at the provincial level is used to estimate a transitory income component for Thai rural households. Estimation results indicate that income risks and borrowing constraints have a substantial negative impact on child schooling outcomes, including educational attainment and the number of years delayed in school. It also finds that transitory income results in increased household education expenditures conditional on children’s attendance at school. These findings suggest that in addition to households’ socioeconomic status, children’s human capital is at risk mainly due to income uncertainty and the absence of well-developed financial and insurance markets.
在发展中国家的农村地区,家庭受到的冲击和财政限制通常被认为是儿童上学机会的障碍。本文利用2013年至2017年汤森泰国面板数据,调查了收入冲击和借贷限制对泰国农村家庭教育需求的影响。省一级的年降雨量信息用于估计泰国农村家庭的临时收入组成部分。估计结果表明,收入风险和借贷限制对儿童上学结果产生了重大负面影响,包括教育程度和延迟上学的年数。它还发现,暂时性收入导致家庭教育支出增加,这是以儿童上学为条件的。这些发现表明,除了家庭的社会经济地位外,儿童的人力资本也面临风险,这主要是由于收入的不确定性以及缺乏发达的金融和保险市场。
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引用次数: 1
Bank Credit Growth and Trust: Does Institutional Quality Matter? Evidence from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations 银行信贷增长与信任:制度质量重要吗?来自东南亚国家联盟的证据
IF 1.5 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.1142/s0116110522500172
Mohamed Albaity, R. Mallek, Abu Hanifa Md Noman, H. Al-Tamimi
This study investigated whether the quality of governance, trustworthiness, and confidence impacts bank credit growth. In addition, we examined credit growth cyclicality in 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. By employing data concerning 282 banks between 2012 and 2019, this study found that trustworthiness boosted bank credit growth. Overall, the increased quality of governance was found to increase credit growth, except for the specific indicators of voice and accountability and political stability, which were found not to influence bank credit growth. Moreover, similar to prior findings in related fields, the empirical results of this study confirmed the complementary effect of informal and formal institutions on bank credit growth. Lastly, results indicated that banks were pro-cyclical regarding credit growth. Overall, the results of this study highlighted the role of the supervisory powers of governments in boosting credit expansion, mainly during economic upturns.
本研究考察了治理质量、可信度和信心是否会影响银行信贷增长。此外,我们研究了东南亚国家联盟10个成员国的信贷增长周期性。通过使用2012年至2019年282家银行的数据,该研究发现,可信度促进了银行信贷增长。总体而言,除了话语权、问责制和政治稳定等具体指标不影响银行信贷增长外,研究发现治理质量的提高促进了信贷增长。此外,与先前相关领域的研究结果相似,本研究的实证结果证实了非正式制度和正式制度对银行信贷增长的互补效应。最后,结果表明,银行在信贷增长方面是顺周期的。总体而言,本研究的结果突出了政府监管权力在促进信贷扩张方面的作用,主要是在经济好转期间。
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引用次数: 1
Behavior of Private Retailers in a Regulated Input Market: An Empirical Analysis of the Fertilizer Subsidy Policy in Nepal 受管制投入市场中私人零售商的行为——尼泊尔化肥补贴政策的实证分析
IF 1.5 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.1142/s0116110522500135
Shriniwas Gautam, D. Choudhary, D. Rahut
The private sector in Nepal participates in the regulated import and distribution of three types of subsidized fertilizer. However, almost 55% of the agrovets (family-owned microenterprises) that retail agricultural inputs do not comply. Many farmers rely on the fertilizer purchased through these agrovets, including subsidized ones. There is no private sector importer of the three types of fertilizer covered by the subsidy program, which indicates that the agrovets either acquire these through leakage in the government distribution system or through illegal cross-border trade from India, both of which are considered legal noncompliance. We discern the determinants for this noncompliant behavior of agrovets using logistic regression. The results from logistic regression suggest that the agrovets that are more likely to comply are registered, have membership in business associations, and have a higher number of competitors. Those with diversified business portfolios and covering a greater number of districts are less likely to comply. Key informants, consisting of both public and private sector stakeholders, were solicited for their views on solving this noncompliant behavior. The private sector unanimously asserts the need for deregulation of fertilizer imports and the participation of agrovets in the distribution of the subsidized fertilizer. In contrast, the public sector is skeptical of the ability and trustworthiness of the private sector in the import and distribution of quality fertilizer. We propose a middle ground to mitigate private sector noncompliance and suggest a policy revisit to increase the fertilizer supply and distribution efficiency.
尼泊尔的私营部门参与了三种补贴肥料的管制进口和分配。然而,零售农业投入的近55%的农企(家庭拥有的微型企业)不符合规定。许多农民依靠从这些小农场购买的化肥,包括得到补贴的小农场。补贴计划所涵盖的三种肥料没有私营部门进口商,这表明农商要么通过政府分销系统的泄漏,要么通过来自印度的非法跨境贸易获得这些肥料,这两种行为都被认为是违法行为。我们辨别的决定因素,这种不服从行为的agrovets使用逻辑回归。逻辑回归结果表明,注册企业、商业协会会员、竞争对手数量较多的农商企业更有可能遵守规则。那些拥有多元化业务组合和覆盖更多地区的公司不太可能遵守规定。主要举报人,包括公共和私营部门的利益相关者,被征求他们对解决这种不合规行为的意见。民间部门一致主张,有必要放宽对化肥进口的限制,并让农业企业参与补贴化肥的分配。相比之下,公共部门对私营部门在进口和分销优质肥料方面的能力和可信度持怀疑态度。我们提出了一个中间立场,以减轻私营部门的不合规行为,并建议重新审视政策,以提高肥料供应和分配效率。
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引用次数: 1
The Employment Effects of Technology, Trade, and Consumption in Global Value Chains: Evidence for Developing Asia 全球价值链中技术、贸易和消费的就业效应:亚洲发展中国家的证据
IF 1.5 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.1142/s011611052250010x
D. Bertulfo, Elisabetta Gentile, Gaaitzen J. de Vries
Global value chains (GVCs) have been a vehicle for job creation in developing Asia, but technology can also displace workers through automation or reshoring of production. We use an input–output approach to examine how employment responded to consumption, trade, and technological progress in 16 economies that accounted for about 95% of employment in developing Asia from 2008 to 2018. Structural decomposition analysis based on the Asian Development Bank’s Multiregional Input–Output database combined with harmonized cross-economy occupation by industry data indicates that, other things being equal, technological change within GVCs and task relocation relate to a decline of routine manual, relative to nonroutine cognitive, occupations in manufacturing. We find no evidence of major shifts in labor demand due to reshoring. Domestic consumption expenditure of goods and services is associated with an increase in labor demand that is large enough to offset efficiency changes in GVCs.
全球价值链(GVCs)一直是亚洲发展中国家创造就业机会的工具,但技术也可以通过自动化或生产回流取代工人。我们使用投入产出方法研究了2008年至2018年期间,占亚洲发展中国家就业约95%的16个经济体的就业如何响应消费、贸易和技术进步。基于亚洲开发银行的多区域投入产出数据库的结构分解分析,结合行业数据协调的跨经济职业表明,在其他条件相同的情况下,全球价值链中的技术变革和任务转移与制造业中常规手工职业相对于非常规认知职业的减少有关。我们没有发现劳动力需求因回流而发生重大变化的证据。商品和服务的国内消费支出与劳动力需求的增加有关,劳动力需求的增加足以抵消全球价值链的效率变化。
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引用次数: 0
Nexus of Technology Adoption, E-commerce, and Global Value Chains: The Case of Asia 技术采用、电子商务和全球价值链的关系:以亚洲为例
IF 1.5 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.1142/s0116110522500147
J. Kang, Dorothea M. Ramizo
Existing literature has examined either the key drivers of global value chain (GVC) exports or the factors affecting e-commerce growth. Studies that investigate the impact of e-commerce, in particular business-to-consumer (B2C) e-commerce, on GVCs are largely missing. The growing prevalence of digital platforms centered around e-commerce marketplaces motivates this study to examine if e-commerce growth in an economy can affect its GVC exports and how information and communication technology infrastructure and technology adoption measures, payment systems, and delivery mechanisms can facilitate this growth. Panel ordinary least squares, feasible generalized least squares, and two-stage least squares estimations are used to determine the relationship between GVC exports and e-commerce sales. The results indicate empirical evidence of the positive impact of B2C e-commerce on GVC exports. The robust and positive impact of B2C e-commerce on GVC exports—when instrumented by secure internet servers, internet bandwidth, and digital payment schemes—suggests growth of B2C e-commerce in an economy can contribute to its GVC participation.
现有文献研究了全球价值链出口的关键驱动因素或影响电子商务增长的因素。调查电子商务,特别是企业对消费者(B2C)电子商务对全球价值链影响的研究基本上缺失。以电子商务市场为中心的数字平台越来越普遍,这促使本研究研究电子商务在一个经济体中的增长是否会影响其全球价值链出口,以及信息和通信技术基础设施和技术采用措施、支付系统和交付机制如何促进这种增长。使用面板普通最小二乘、可行广义最小二乘和两阶段最小二乘估计来确定全球价值链出口与电子商务销售之间的关系。研究结果表明,B2C电子商务对全球价值链出口产生了积极影响。B2C电子商务对全球价值链出口的强劲而积极的影响——当通过安全的互联网服务器、互联网带宽和数字支付计划进行干预时——表明B2C电子商务在一个经济体中的增长可以有助于其参与全球价值链。
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引用次数: 2
Technical Efficiency in Production of Major Food Grains in Punjab, Pakistan 巴基斯坦旁遮普邦主要粮食生产的技术效率
IF 1.5 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.1142/s0116110522500160
A. Salam, A. Hameed
Based on the 2016–2017 farm survey data, this study examines technical efficiency in the production of wheat, rice, and maize in Punjab province in Pakistan. Technical efficiency, under varying returns to scale, in wheat farming averaged 0.65; in rice, it averaged 0.74, and in the case of maize, it was 0.92. A great majority of the sample farmers were estimated to be operating under increasing returns to scale. Estimations of scale inefficiency in wheat cultivation hovered around 18%; in rice, it ranged from 16% to 21%, and in maize, it varied from 7% to 17%. These estimates are indicative of the scope and the potential for increasing technical and scale efficiencies in the production of all food grains, albeit to varying degrees for different crops.
基于2016-2017年的农业调查数据,本研究考察了巴基斯坦旁遮普省小麦、水稻和玉米生产的技术效率。在不同规模收益条件下,小麦种植的技术效率平均为0.65;水稻的平均系数为0.74,玉米的平均系数为0.92。据估计,绝大多数样本农民在规模收益递增的情况下经营。估计小麦种植的规模无效率徘徊在18%左右;在水稻中,这一比例从16%到21%不等,在玉米中,这一比例从7%到17%不等。这些估计表明了提高所有粮食生产的技术和规模效率的范围和潜力,尽管不同作物的提高程度不同。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
Asian Development Review
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