Fine particulate pollution (PM2.5) is a leading mortality risk factor in the People's Republic of China (PRC) and many Asian countries. Current studies of PM2.5 mortality have been conducted at the national and provincial levels, or at the grid-based micro level, and report only the exposure index or attributable premature deaths. Little is known about the welfare implications of PM2.5 mortality for urban areas. In this study, we estimate the total cost of PM2.5 mortality, the benefit of its reduction achieved through meeting various air quality targets, and the benefit of mortality reduction achieved through a uniform 10 micrograms per cubic meter decrease in PM2.5 concentration in the urban areas of 300 major cities in the PRC. Significant heterogeneity exists in welfare indicators across rich versus poor and clean versus dirty cities. The results indicate that cities in the PRC should accelerate the fine particulate pollution control process and implement more stringent air quality targets to achieve much greater mortality reduction benefits.
{"title":"An Economic Evaluation of the Health Effects of Reducing Fine Particulate Pollution in Chinese Cities","authors":"Yana Jin, Shiqiu Zhang","doi":"10.1162/adev_a_00114","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/adev_a_00114","url":null,"abstract":"Fine particulate pollution (PM2.5) is a leading mortality risk factor in the People's Republic of China (PRC) and many Asian countries. Current studies of PM2.5 mortality have been conducted at the national and provincial levels, or at the grid-based micro level, and report only the exposure index or attributable premature deaths. Little is known about the welfare implications of PM2.5 mortality for urban areas. In this study, we estimate the total cost of PM2.5 mortality, the benefit of its reduction achieved through meeting various air quality targets, and the benefit of mortality reduction achieved through a uniform 10 micrograms per cubic meter decrease in PM2.5 concentration in the urban areas of 300 major cities in the PRC. Significant heterogeneity exists in welfare indicators across rich versus poor and clean versus dirty cities. The results indicate that cities in the PRC should accelerate the fine particulate pollution control process and implement more stringent air quality targets to achieve much greater mortality reduction benefits.","PeriodicalId":39852,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Review","volume":"35 1","pages":"58-84"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2018-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1162/adev_a_00114","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48238634","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The People's Republic of China (PRC) launched seven emissions trading scheme (ETS) pilot projects in 2013–2014 to explore a cost-effective approach for low-carbon development. The central government subsequently announced its plans for the full-fledged implementation of ETS in the entire PRC in late 2017. To ensure the success of ETS in the PRC, it is necessary to gain a better understanding of the experiences and lessons learned in the pilot projects. In this paper, we provide a policy overview of the seven pilot projects, including policy design, legislative basis, and market performance. We use the synthetic control method to evaluate the carbon mitigation effect of each of the seven ETS pilots. Our findings are that success has been limited and uneven across the pilot projects, which warrants deeper evaluation of the differences between them and caution in scheme expansion. Results from the analysis also shed light on policy improvements that can benefit the nationwide development of ETS.
{"title":"Carbon Trading Scheme in the People's Republic of China: Evaluating the Performance of Seven Pilot Projects","authors":"Xing Chen, Jintao Xu","doi":"10.1162/adev_a_00117","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/adev_a_00117","url":null,"abstract":"The People's Republic of China (PRC) launched seven emissions trading scheme (ETS) pilot projects in 2013–2014 to explore a cost-effective approach for low-carbon development. The central government subsequently announced its plans for the full-fledged implementation of ETS in the entire PRC in late 2017. To ensure the success of ETS in the PRC, it is necessary to gain a better understanding of the experiences and lessons learned in the pilot projects. In this paper, we provide a policy overview of the seven pilot projects, including policy design, legislative basis, and market performance. We use the synthetic control method to evaluate the carbon mitigation effect of each of the seven ETS pilots. Our findings are that success has been limited and uneven across the pilot projects, which warrants deeper evaluation of the differences between them and caution in scheme expansion. Results from the analysis also shed light on policy improvements that can benefit the nationwide development of ETS.","PeriodicalId":39852,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Review","volume":"35 1","pages":"131-152"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2018-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1162/adev_a_00117","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47309422","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Special Issue on The Climate Change Challenge to Asia's Development","authors":"","doi":"10.1162/adev_e_00120","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/adev_e_00120","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":39852,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Review","volume":"85 3","pages":"iii-V"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2018-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1162/adev_e_00120","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41258559","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Fossil fuel subsidies are widespread in developing countries, where reform efforts are often derailed by disputes over the likely distribution of gains and losses. The impacts of subsidy reform are transmitted to households through changes in energy prices and prices of other goods and services, as well as through factor earnings. Most empirical studies focus on consumer expenditures alone, and computable general equilibrium analyses typically report only total effects without decomposing them by source. Meanwhile, analytical models neglect important open-economy characteristics relevant to developing countries. In this paper, we develop an analytical model of a small open economy with a preexisting fossil fuel subsidy and identify direct and indirect impacts of subsidy reform on real household incomes. Our results, illustrated with data from Viet Nam, highlight two important drivers of distributional change: (i) the mix of tradable and nontradable goods, reflecting the structure of a trade-dependent economy; and (ii) household heterogeneity in sources of factor income.
{"title":"Fossil Fuel Subsidy Reform in the Developing World: Who Wins, Who Loses, and Why?","authors":"I. Coxhead, Corbett A. Grainger","doi":"10.1162/adev_a_00119","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/adev_a_00119","url":null,"abstract":"Fossil fuel subsidies are widespread in developing countries, where reform efforts are often derailed by disputes over the likely distribution of gains and losses. The impacts of subsidy reform are transmitted to households through changes in energy prices and prices of other goods and services, as well as through factor earnings. Most empirical studies focus on consumer expenditures alone, and computable general equilibrium analyses typically report only total effects without decomposing them by source. Meanwhile, analytical models neglect important open-economy characteristics relevant to developing countries. In this paper, we develop an analytical model of a small open economy with a preexisting fossil fuel subsidy and identify direct and indirect impacts of subsidy reform on real household incomes. Our results, illustrated with data from Viet Nam, highlight two important drivers of distributional change: (i) the mix of tradable and nontradable goods, reflecting the structure of a trade-dependent economy; and (ii) household heterogeneity in sources of factor income.","PeriodicalId":39852,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Review","volume":"35 1","pages":"180-203"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2018-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1162/adev_a_00119","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48581854","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The People's Republic of China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea have launched individual emission trading schemes to control greenhouse gas emissions cost-effectively. This paper reviews key carbon market design elements in the three countries in terms of emission allowances, covered sectors, allowance allocations, monitoring, reporting and verification, compliance and penalties, and offset markets. We assess the performances of the emission trading schemes among the three countries based on secondary-market allowance transactions. Considering heterogeneous climate policy designs in the region, we explore various approaches for the linkage of East Asian carbon markets. Cooperation on carbon markets is instrumental for regional and global climate governance. It could not only help achieve cost-effective emission reductions in the region, but also signal the commitment of the three countries to climate change mitigation.
{"title":"Regional Cooperation on Carbon Markets in East Asia","authors":"Jiajia Li, Junjie Zhang","doi":"10.1162/adev_a_00118","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/adev_a_00118","url":null,"abstract":"The People's Republic of China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea have launched individual emission trading schemes to control greenhouse gas emissions cost-effectively. This paper reviews key carbon market design elements in the three countries in terms of emission allowances, covered sectors, allowance allocations, monitoring, reporting and verification, compliance and penalties, and offset markets. We assess the performances of the emission trading schemes among the three countries based on secondary-market allowance transactions. Considering heterogeneous climate policy designs in the region, we explore various approaches for the linkage of East Asian carbon markets. Cooperation on carbon markets is instrumental for regional and global climate governance. It could not only help achieve cost-effective emission reductions in the region, but also signal the commitment of the three countries to climate change mitigation.","PeriodicalId":39852,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Review","volume":"35 1","pages":"153-179"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2018-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1162/adev_a_00118","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44921128","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Indonesia has introduced a moratorium on the conversion of natural forests to land used for palm oil production. Using a dynamic, bottom-up, interregional computable general equilibrium model of the Indonesian economy, we assess several scenarios of the moratorium and discuss its impacts on the domestic economy as well as on regional economies within Indonesia. We find the moratorium reduces Indonesian economic growth and other macroeconomic indicators, but international transfers can more than compensate the welfare losses. The impacts also vary across regions. Sumatra, which is highly dependent on palm oil and is home to forests that no longer have a high carbon stock, receives fewer transfers and suffers the greatest economic loss. Kalimantan, which is relatively less dependent on palm oil and has forests with a relatively high carbon stock, receives more transfers and gets greater benefit. This implies that additional policy measures anticipating the unbalanced impacts of the moratorium are required if the trade-off between conservation and reducing interregional economic disparity is to be reconciled.
{"title":"Indonesia's Moratorium on Palm Oil Expansion from Natural Forests: Economy-Wide Impacts and the Role of International Transfers","authors":"A. Yusuf, E. Roos, J. Horridge","doi":"10.1162/adev_a_00115","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/adev_a_00115","url":null,"abstract":"Indonesia has introduced a moratorium on the conversion of natural forests to land used for palm oil production. Using a dynamic, bottom-up, interregional computable general equilibrium model of the Indonesian economy, we assess several scenarios of the moratorium and discuss its impacts on the domestic economy as well as on regional economies within Indonesia. We find the moratorium reduces Indonesian economic growth and other macroeconomic indicators, but international transfers can more than compensate the welfare losses. The impacts also vary across regions. Sumatra, which is highly dependent on palm oil and is home to forests that no longer have a high carbon stock, receives fewer transfers and suffers the greatest economic loss. Kalimantan, which is relatively less dependent on palm oil and has forests with a relatively high carbon stock, receives more transfers and gets greater benefit. This implies that additional policy measures anticipating the unbalanced impacts of the moratorium are required if the trade-off between conservation and reducing interregional economic disparity is to be reconciled.","PeriodicalId":39852,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Review","volume":"35 1","pages":"85-112"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2018-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1162/adev_a_00115","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43977916","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
I examine the estimated economic, ecological, and food security effects of future fishery management reform in Asia. Without climate change, most Asian fisheries stand to gain substantially from reforms. Optimizing fishery management could increase catch by 24% and profit by 34% over business-as-usual management. These benefits arise from fishing some stocks more conservatively and others more aggressively. Although climate change is expected to reduce carrying capacity in 55% of Asian fisheries, I find that under climate change large benefits from fishery management reform are maintained, though these benefits are heterogeneous. The case for reform remains strong for both catch and profit, though these numbers are slightly lower than in the no-climate change case. These results suggest that, to maximize economic output and food security, Asian fisheries will benefit substantially from the transition to catch shares or other economically rational fishery management institutions, despite the looming effects of climate change.
{"title":"Does Climate Change Bolster the Case for Fishery Reform in Asia?","authors":"C. Costello","doi":"10.1162/adev_a_00113","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/adev_a_00113","url":null,"abstract":"I examine the estimated economic, ecological, and food security effects of future fishery management reform in Asia. Without climate change, most Asian fisheries stand to gain substantially from reforms. Optimizing fishery management could increase catch by 24% and profit by 34% over business-as-usual management. These benefits arise from fishing some stocks more conservatively and others more aggressively. Although climate change is expected to reduce carrying capacity in 55% of Asian fisheries, I find that under climate change large benefits from fishery management reform are maintained, though these benefits are heterogeneous. The case for reform remains strong for both catch and profit, though these numbers are slightly lower than in the no-climate change case. These results suggest that, to maximize economic output and food security, Asian fisheries will benefit substantially from the transition to catch shares or other economically rational fishery management institutions, despite the looming effects of climate change.","PeriodicalId":39852,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Review","volume":"35 1","pages":"31-57"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2018-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1162/adev_a_00113","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46032065","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper presents an empirical analysis devised to understand the complex relationship between extreme temperatures and mortality in 16 Asian countries where more than 50% of the world's population resides. Using a country-year panel on mortality rates and various measures of high temperatures for 1960–2015, the analysis produces two primary findings. First, high temperatures significantly increase annual mortality rates in Asia. Second, this increase is larger in countries with cooler climates where high temperatures are infrequent. These empirical estimates can help inform climate change impact projections on human health for Asia, which is considered to be highly vulnerable to climate change. The results indicate that unabated warming until the end of the century could increase annual mortality rates by more than 40%, highlighting the need for concrete and rapid actions to help individuals and communities adapt to climate change.
{"title":"Temperature Variability and Mortality: Evidence from 16 Asian Countries","authors":"O. Deschenes","doi":"10.1162/adev_a_00112","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/adev_a_00112","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents an empirical analysis devised to understand the complex relationship between extreme temperatures and mortality in 16 Asian countries where more than 50% of the world's population resides. Using a country-year panel on mortality rates and various measures of high temperatures for 1960–2015, the analysis produces two primary findings. First, high temperatures significantly increase annual mortality rates in Asia. Second, this increase is larger in countries with cooler climates where high temperatures are infrequent. These empirical estimates can help inform climate change impact projections on human health for Asia, which is considered to be highly vulnerable to climate change. The results indicate that unabated warming until the end of the century could increase annual mortality rates by more than 40%, highlighting the need for concrete and rapid actions to help individuals and communities adapt to climate change.","PeriodicalId":39852,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Review","volume":"35 1","pages":"1-30"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2018-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1162/adev_a_00112","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41561364","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Agriculture in both the developing and developed country context is highly sensitive to weather shocks. The intensity of these shocks is likely to increase under climate change, leading to an ongoing debate regarding the ability of farmers to insulate yields and income against accelerating environmental extremes. We study crop diversity as an avenue for increased resilience. Diversity in agricultural systems has been suggested in the agroecology and environmental economics literatures as a powerful means of on-farm insurance, both through physical and market-based channels. However, large-scale empirical evidence of its effectiveness is lacking, and crop diversity is largely absent from the empirical climate impacts literature. We examine the insurance benefits of crop diversity in the context of India at the height of the Green Revolution, a period of rapid change in agricultural diversification due to the increased penetration of a small set of high-yielding variety crops. Building on a basic empirical model from the climate impacts literature, we show that areas with higher crop diversity of planted area display measurably more drought resilience, both in terms of gross and net revenues. We decompose this aggregate result to show that diversification has implications for farmer welfare both through physical (yield) and market (price) channels.
{"title":"Regional Crop Diversity and Weather Shocks in India","authors":"M. Auffhammer, T. Carleton","doi":"10.1162/adev_a_00116","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/adev_a_00116","url":null,"abstract":"Agriculture in both the developing and developed country context is highly sensitive to weather shocks. The intensity of these shocks is likely to increase under climate change, leading to an ongoing debate regarding the ability of farmers to insulate yields and income against accelerating environmental extremes. We study crop diversity as an avenue for increased resilience. Diversity in agricultural systems has been suggested in the agroecology and environmental economics literatures as a powerful means of on-farm insurance, both through physical and market-based channels. However, large-scale empirical evidence of its effectiveness is lacking, and crop diversity is largely absent from the empirical climate impacts literature. We examine the insurance benefits of crop diversity in the context of India at the height of the Green Revolution, a period of rapid change in agricultural diversification due to the increased penetration of a small set of high-yielding variety crops. Building on a basic empirical model from the climate impacts literature, we show that areas with higher crop diversity of planted area display measurably more drought resilience, both in terms of gross and net revenues. We decompose this aggregate result to show that diversification has implications for farmer welfare both through physical (yield) and market (price) channels.","PeriodicalId":39852,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Review","volume":"35 1","pages":"113-130"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2018-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1162/adev_a_00116","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41676521","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study examines how interfirm heterogeneities in modes of technology acquisition and technology intensities are linked to firm ownership in India using a panel data set of about 2,000 firms listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange for the period 2003–2014 drawn from the Prowess database of the Center for Monitoring Indian Economy. Foreign ownership is categorized according to the level of control exercised by foreign firms as defined under the Companies Act of India. A comparative analysis of domestic and different categories of foreign firms was conducted for two time periods: (i) the global boom period of 2004–2008, and (ii) the post global financial crisis period of 2008–2014. A horizontal cluster analysis of 3-digit, industry-level data shows that foreign firms cluster in high-technology industries. The propensity score matching analysis, however, reveals that in a matched sample of foreign and domestic firms, majority-owned foreign firms spend less on research and development and more on technology transfers than their local counterparts, demonstrating that the level of equity holdings by a foreign firm matters. There is little evidence of the global financial crisis affecting the relocation of research and development activities to India. An alternative assessment based on panel data regression analysis confirms these findings and validates the propensity score matching results.
{"title":"The Impact of Foreign Ownership on Research and Development Intensity and Technology Acquisition in Indian Industries: Pre and Post Global Financial Crisis","authors":"A. Aggarwal","doi":"10.1162/adev_a_00103","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/adev_a_00103","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines how interfirm heterogeneities in modes of technology acquisition and technology intensities are linked to firm ownership in India using a panel data set of about 2,000 firms listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange for the period 2003–2014 drawn from the Prowess database of the Center for Monitoring Indian Economy. Foreign ownership is categorized according to the level of control exercised by foreign firms as defined under the Companies Act of India. A comparative analysis of domestic and different categories of foreign firms was conducted for two time periods: (i) the global boom period of 2004–2008, and (ii) the post global financial crisis period of 2008–2014. A horizontal cluster analysis of 3-digit, industry-level data shows that foreign firms cluster in high-technology industries. The propensity score matching analysis, however, reveals that in a matched sample of foreign and domestic firms, majority-owned foreign firms spend less on research and development and more on technology transfers than their local counterparts, demonstrating that the level of equity holdings by a foreign firm matters. There is little evidence of the global financial crisis affecting the relocation of research and development activities to India. An alternative assessment based on panel data regression analysis confirms these findings and validates the propensity score matching results.","PeriodicalId":39852,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Review","volume":"35 1","pages":"1-26"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2018-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1162/adev_a_00103","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48382391","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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