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The Impact of Special Economic Zones on Economic Development: Evidence from Nightlight Analysis in the Lao People’s Democratic Republic 经济特区对经济发展的影响:老挝人民民主共和国夜光分析的证据
IF 1 Q4 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-07-12 DOI: 10.1142/s0116110524400109
Nilaphy Phommachanh
Over the past few decades, special economic zones (SEZs) have become a widely used industrial policy tool to support structural transformation and economic development. Yet their impact on the economy remains inconclusive, especially in developing countries where the lack of data presents a challenge. This study examines the potentially causal effect of SEZs on the economy of the Lao People’s Democratic Republic using harmonized nightlight satellite data as a proxy for annual economic activity in 148 districts from 1992 to 2021. Using counterfactual estimators for causal inference with time-series, cross-sectional data, SEZ establishment appears to result in a statistically significant increase in the economic activity of the host districts. Heterogeneity tests show that (i) SEZs in the Lao People’s Democratic Republic seem to have had a greater impact on economic activity after 2010, coinciding with the establishment of dedicated SEZ agencies; and (ii) industrial zones appear to have a higher impact than tourism zones.
过去几十年来,经济特区(SEZs)已成为支持结构转型和经济发展的一种广泛使用的产业政策工具。然而,经济特区对经济的影响仍无定论,特别是在发展中国家,数据的缺乏是一个难题。本研究使用统一夜光卫星数据作为 1992 年至 2021 年 148 个地区年度经济活动的替代数据,研究经济特区对老挝人民民主共和国经济的潜在因果效应。利用反事实估计法对时间序列、横截面数据进行因果推断,经济特区的建立似乎会导致东道区经济活动的统计意义上的显著增长。异质性检验表明:(i) 老挝人民民主共和国的经济特区似乎在 2010 年之后对经济活动产生了更大的影响,这与专门的经济特区机构的建立时间相吻合;(ii) 工业区似乎比旅游区产生了更大的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Shifting Trade Winds: Southeast Asia’s Response to the United States–People’s Republic of China Trade Dispute 贸易风云变幻:东南亚对美国-中华人民共和国贸易争端的回应
IF 1 Q4 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-07-12 DOI: 10.1142/s0116110524400134
Sunghun Lim, ANH PHUOC THIEN NGUYEN
This study delves into the trade dynamics of Southeast Asian countries in response to the trade dispute between the United States (US) and the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Our analysis uncovers diverse patterns of trade diversion effects among eight Southeast Asian countries, revealing significant disparities in their reactions to this trade dispute. Specifically, we observe Viet Nam’s substantial export growth to both the US and the PRC, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and strategic relocations. Thailand, on the other hand, experiences positive effects on its exports to the US, potentially due to trade diversion, alongside diminishing exports to the PRC. Moreover, we find sector-specific trends, such as an upsurge in machinery exports from Viet Nam, Thailand, and Indonesia. In contrast, Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, and Singapore largely sustained their respective export levels to the US. Our findings highlight the importance of tailored trade policies that consider each Southeast Asian country’s unique industrial structure and degree of global value chain integration.
本研究深入探讨了东南亚国家应对美国(US)与中华人民共和国(PRC)之间贸易争端的贸易动态。我们的分析发现了八个东南亚国家贸易转移效应的不同模式,揭示了这些国家对贸易争端反应的显著差异。具体而言,我们观察到越南受地缘政治不确定性和战略转移的影响,对美国和中国的出口均大幅增长。另一方面,泰国对美国的出口受到积极影响,这可能是由于贸易转移,同时对中国的出口也在减少。此外,我们还发现了一些特定行业的趋势,如越南、泰国和印度尼西亚的机械出口激增。相比之下,文莱达鲁萨兰国、印度尼西亚、马来西亚、缅甸、菲律宾和新加坡在很大程度上保持了各自对美国的出口水平。我们的研究结果凸显了量身定制的贸易政策的重要性,这些政策应考虑到每个东南亚国家独特的产业结构和全球价值链整合程度。
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引用次数: 0
Structural Transformation in Asia and the Pacific 亚太地区的结构转型
IF 1 Q4 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-07-12 DOI: 10.1142/s0116110524020025
John Gibson
Many countries in Asia and the Pacific have experienced rapid economic growth and structural transformation in recent decades. Yet, some countries are still at an early stage of this structural transformation and face external conditions less favorable than those faced by the first movers when they were at a similar early stage in their transformation. The external environment is less auspicious, with trade tensions and “friend-shoring” leading to possible deglobalization, while demographic headwinds could also lower sustainable growth rates and induce technological changes, such as the increased use of robots, that reduce the possibility of relying upon labor-intensive development strategies.
近几十年来,亚太区域许多国家经历了快速的经济增长和结构转型。然而,一些国家仍处于结构转型的早期阶段,所面临的外部条件不如先行者在类似的转型早期阶段所面临的条件有利。外部环境不太有利,贸易紧张局势和 "朋友外包 "可能导致非全球化,而人口方面的不利因素也可能降低可持续增长率,并引发技术变革,如更多地使用机器人,从而降低依赖劳动密集型发展战略的可能性。
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引用次数: 0
Trade Openness and the Growth–Poverty Nexus: A Reappraisal with a New Openness Indicator 贸易开放与增长-贫困的关系:用新的开放度指标重新评估
IF 1 Q4 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-07-12 DOI: 10.1142/s0116110524400092
Wannaphong Durongkaveroj
Developing countries have greatly benefited from globalization, coinciding with economic growth and structural transformation. The standard trade theory postulates that trade openness contributes to poverty alleviation directly by changing factor proportions of production and indirectly through the trickle-down effect of growth. Existing multicountry studies using the trade-to-gross-domestic-product ratio to measure openness often fail to find a direct effect of openness on poverty over and above the growth–poverty nexus. This paper is motivated by the concern that the failure of these studies to detect the effectiveness of the factor proportion channel may be due to limitations of the commonly used measure of trade openness: the trade-to-gross-domestic-product ratio. Using a newly constructed index of trade openness, which I dub “the price convergence index,” I find a significant direct effect of openness on poverty reduction. The results also suggest that the impact of growth on poverty is greater for economies with more open trade regimes.
随着经济增长和结构转型,发展中国家从全球化中获益匪浅。标准贸易理论假设,贸易开放通过改变生产要素比例直接促进减贫,并通过增长的涓滴效应间接促进减贫。现有的多国研究使用贸易与国内生产总值的比率来衡量开放程度,但往往无法发现开放对贫困的直接影响,而无法超越增长与贫困之间的关系。这些研究未能发现要素比例渠道的有效性,可能是由于常用的贸易开放度衡量指标(贸易与国内生产总值之比)的局限性造成的。我使用了一个新构建的贸易开放度指数(我称之为 "价格趋同指数"),发现开放度对减贫有显著的直接影响。结果还表明,对于贸易制度更加开放的经济体来说,增长对贫困的影响更大。
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引用次数: 0
Minimum Wage and Educational Pathways in Indonesia: General or Vocational Tracks? 印度尼西亚的最低工资和教育途径:普通教育还是职业教育?
IF 1 Q4 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-07-12 DOI: 10.1142/s0116110524400110
Dyah Pritadrajati, Nurina Merdikawati, Sweta C. Saxena, A. M. Tjahjadi
This study investigates the relationship between minimum wage policies and educational choices, specifically the decision between vocational and general school enrollment. While higher minimum wages often attract students to vocational education as a faster route to employment, our analysis of Indonesia Family Life Survey data finds little evidence of increased enrollment in vocational education. This suggests that hikes in the minimum wage are unlikely to divert students away from general education. Our findings reveal notable heterogeneity, showing that an increase in the minimum wage is associated with a statistically significant reduction in the likelihood of men and individuals in rural areas to opt for vocational education. These findings underscore the critical need for Indonesia to revitalize its vocational education system, striking a balance between general and vocational pathways to equip its workforce with the skills required for a rapidly changing environment.
本研究调查了最低工资政策与教育选择之间的关系,特别是职业学校和普通学校入学之间的决定。虽然提高最低工资通常会吸引学生接受职业教育,因为这是一条更快的就业途径,但我们对印度尼西亚家庭生活调查数据的分析发现,几乎没有证据表明职业教育的入学率有所提高。这表明,提高最低工资不太可能使学生放弃普通教育。我们的研究结果揭示了显著的异质性,表明最低工资的提高与农村地区男性和个人选择职业教育的可能性在统计上显著降低相关。这些研究结果突出表明,印度尼西亚亟需振兴其职业教育体系,在普通教育和职业教育之间取得平衡,使其劳动力具备适应快速变化环境所需的技能。
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引用次数: 0
Gravity-Based Tools to Assess the Impact of Tariff Changes: An Application to Armenia 评估关税变化影响的重力工具:亚美尼亚的应用
IF 1.5 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-05-20 DOI: 10.1142/s0116110524500057
Arevik GNUTZMANN-MKRTCHYAN, Jules Hugot
This paper uses two empirical tools to quantify the impact of tariff changes on bilateral trade and welfare. Both tools are rooted in structural gravity literature. The first tool estimates the impact of tariff changes on bilateral trade for 5,020 products in a partial equilibrium framework. The second tool quantifies the impact on bilateral aggregate trade in a general equilibrium setup, allowing estimates of trade diversion and welfare changes. These tools are used to estimate the impact of tariff changes on Armenia with regard to (i) its alignment with the external tariff of the Eurasian Economic Union; (ii) free trade agreements between the Eurasian Economic Union and other economies, including Iran and the People’s Republic of China; and (iii) Armenia’s loss of beneficiary status under the Generalised Scheme of Preferences of the European Union.
本文使用两种经验工具来量化关税变化对双边贸易和福利的影响。这两种工具都源于结构引力文献。第一种工具是在局部均衡框架下估算关税变化对 5,020 种产品双边贸易的影响。第二种工具在一般均衡设置中量化对双边总贸易的影响,从而估算贸易转移和福利变化。这些工具用于估算关税变化在以下方面对亚美尼亚的影响:(i) 与欧亚经济联盟的对外关税保持一致;(ii) 欧亚经济联盟与其他经济体(包括伊朗和中华人民共和国)之间的自由贸易协定;(iii) 亚美尼亚失去欧洲联盟普遍优惠计划的受益国地位。
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引用次数: 0
Double Dualism, Economic Growth Slowdown, and Falling Income Inequality in Thailand 泰国的双重二元论、经济增长放缓和收入不平等下降
IF 1.5 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-05-10 DOI: 10.1142/s0116110524500069
Tanadej Vechsuruck, Praopan Pratoomchat
Thailand has experienced a decline in income inequality coupled with unimpressive economic growth since the end of the 1997/98 Asian financial crisis. This paper uses the structuralist approach to understand how these concurrent economic phenomena have become deeply intertwined. We argue that this intertwining results from Thailand’s economic structure, manifesting two types of dualism: (i) the dualism of the formal–informal sectors and (ii) the dualism of the dynamic–stagnant sectors. A decline in the informal sector in recent years coincides with a decrease in income inequality. Further, the second type of dualism between the dynamic and stagnant sectors has emerged since 2000. The stagnant sectors’ employment share has grown faster than that of the dynamic sectors, resulting in a slowdown in economic growth and less inequality. The decline of the informal sector and the rise of the stagnant sectors are the primary engines weighing down economic growth and reducing income inequality in Thailand.
自 1997/98 年亚洲金融危机结束以来,泰国经历了收入不平等程度下降以及经济增长不尽人意的局面。本文采用结构主义方法来理解这些同时出现的经济现象是如何深度交织在一起的。我们认为,这种交织源于泰国的经济结构,表现出两种二元论:(i) 正规-非正规部门的二元论;(ii) 活跃-停滞部门的二元论。近年来,非正规部门的减少与收入不平等的减少相吻合。此外,自 2000 年以来出现了第二种动态部门与停滞部门之间的二元结构。停滞部门的就业份额增长快于活跃部门,导致经济增长放缓,不平等现象减少。非正规部门的衰退和停滞部门的崛起是拖累泰国经济增长和减少收入不平等的主要动力。
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引用次数: 0
Enhancing Enterprise Integration: Analyzing the Impacts of the Belt and Road Initiative on High-Quality Development in the People’s Republic of China 加强企业融合:分析 "一带一路 "倡议对中华人民共和国高质量发展的影响
IF 1.5 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-26 DOI: 10.1142/s0116110524500045
Zhiyang Shen, Songkai Wang, SU Liu
Amid the backdrop of globalization, international trade has emerged as a crucial driver of economic development. The People’s Republic of China (PRC), as the instigator and key participant in the “Belt and Road” initiative, has garnered substantial attention for its trade collaborations with other participating countries. While numerous studies have examined the impact of the initiative on the PRC’s export trade, there has been relatively limited research on its influence on imports by Chinese enterprises. Hence, this paper aims to address this gap by utilizing the PRC’s customs import data from 2010 to 2015 and focusing on enterprises located in the PRC’s core cities along the Belt and Road route. The study seeks to analyze the initiative’s impact and the underlying mechanisms it employs to shape their import patterns. The findings of this research demonstrate that the Belt and Road initiative plays a significant role in fostering “quality growth” through two primary channels: product diversity and urban innovation capability. Notably, these effects are particularly pronounced for foreign-funded enterprises, capital goods, and enterprises situated in coastal cities. By using the Belt and Road initiative as a case study, this paper provides valuable insights that can inform efforts to further enhance the impact of international cooperation, actively expand imports, and achieve the high-quality development of foreign trade.
在全球化背景下,国际贸易已成为经济发展的重要推动力。作为 "一带一路 "倡议的发起者和主要参与者,中华人民共和国(PRC)与其他参与国的贸易合作备受关注。虽然已有大量研究探讨了 "一带一路 "倡议对中国出口贸易的影响,但有关其对中国企业进口影响的研究却相对有限。因此,本文利用中国海关 2010 年至 2015 年的进口数据,以中国 "一带一路 "沿线核心城市的企业为研究对象,旨在填补这一空白。本研究旨在分析 "一带一路 "倡议的影响及其塑造企业进口模式的内在机制。研究结果表明,"一带一路 "倡议通过产品多样性和城市创新能力这两个主要渠道,在促进 "高质量增长 "方面发挥了重要作用。值得注意的是,这些效应对于外资企业、资本货物和沿海城市的企业尤为明显。本文以 "一带一路 "倡议为案例,为进一步提升国际合作影响力、积极扩大进口、实现外贸高质量发展提供了宝贵的启示。
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引用次数: 0
Compiling Granular Population Data Using Geospatial Information 利用地理空间信息编制细粒度人口数据
IF 1.5 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-26 DOI: 10.1142/s0116110524500021
Katharina Fenz, Thomas Mitterling, A. J. M. Martinez, J. Bulan, Ron Lester Durante, Marymell A. Martillan, Mildred B. Addawe, Isabell Roitner-Fransecky
Detailed data on the distribution of human populations are valuable inputs to research and decision making. This study aims at compiling data on population density that are more granular than government-published estimates and assessing different methods and model specifications. As a first step, we combine government-published data with publicly available data like land cover classes, elevation, slope, and nighttime lights, and then apply a random forest approach to estimate population density in the Philippines and Thailand at the 100 meter (m) by 100 m level. Second, we use different specifications of random forest and Bayesian model averaging (BMA) techniques to forecast grid-level population density and evaluate their predictive power. The use of a random forest model showed that reasonable forecasts of grid-level population growth rates are achievable. The results of this study contribute to the assessment of methods like random forest and BMA in forecasting population distributions.
有关人口分布的详细数据是研究和决策的宝贵投入。本研究旨在汇编比政府公布的估计值更精细的人口密度数据,并评估不同的方法和模型规格。首先,我们将政府公布的数据与土地覆被等级、海拔、坡度和夜间灯光等公开数据相结合,然后采用随机森林方法估算菲律宾和泰国 100 米乘 100 米级的人口密度。其次,我们使用不同规格的随机森林和贝叶斯模型平均(BMA)技术来预测网格级人口密度,并评估其预测能力。随机森林模型的使用表明,网格级人口增长率的合理预测是可以实现的。这项研究的结果有助于评估随机森林和贝叶斯模型平均法等方法在预测人口分布方面的作用。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing Regional Inequalities in Kazakhstan through Well-Being 通过福祉评估哈萨克斯坦的地区不平等现象
IF 1.5 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-26 DOI: 10.1142/s0116110524500033
A. Rodríguez‐Pose, Federico Bartalucci, B. Kurmanov, Genadiy Rau, Kaisar Nigmetov
Growing disparities in wealth, well-being, and access to services in Kazakhstan have raised serious concerns among policymakers, especially since the January 2022 protests. This paper evaluates these regional inequalities and presents the findings from Kazakhstan’s inaugural well-being survey. The survey, based on global best practices, involves 4,032 face-to-face interviews with a diverse sample across all 20 regions, ensuring representation. The resulting indices—the Subjective Well-Being Index and the Regional Well-Being Index—highlight both within-region and between-region disparities. Notably, the indices reveal significant variations in well-being, with certain regions reporting notably lower satisfaction levels across dimensions like trust in institutions, satisfaction with financial and housing conditions, health care and education quality, and personal security perceptions.
哈萨克斯坦在财富、福利和获得服务方面日益扩大的差距引起了政策制定者的严重关切,尤其是自 2022 年 1 月抗议活动以来。本文对这些地区不平等现象进行了评估,并介绍了哈萨克斯坦首次福祉调查的结果。该调查以全球最佳实践为基础,对所有 20 个地区的不同样本进行了 4032 次面对面访谈,以确保代表性。调查得出的指数--主观幸福指数和地区幸福指数--凸显了地区内和地区间的差异。值得注意的是,这些指数揭示了幸福感方面的显著差异,某些地区在机构信任度、经济和住房条件满意度、医疗保健和教育质量以及个人安全感等方面的满意度明显较低。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Asian Development Review
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