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Impact of Rural Credit on Household Welfare: Evidence from a Long-Term Panel in Bangladesh 农村信贷对家庭福利的影响:来自孟加拉国长期研究小组的证据
Q4 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1142/s0116110523500166
MD. ALAMGIR HOSSAIN, MOHAMMAD ABDUL MALEK, ZHENGFEI YU
Using 791 consistent households in the balanced panel, comprising 3,985 households in the unbalanced panel–from a nationally representative, multipurpose, five-round (1988, 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2014) Mahabub Hossain Panel Data in Bangladesh—we provide evidence for the long-term impact of different rural credit sources—which include formal banks, quasiformal microfinance institutes, and informal channels—on household welfare indicators. We find that the long-term impact of access to rural credit on a few welfare indicators is statistically insignificant and sometimes negative. This finding mostly holds when we investigate the impact of different rural credit sources separately. Our results raise a question on the progressive lending of some credit sources, especially microfinance institutes, and have implications for the introduction of nationwide credit bureaus in Bangladesh.
利用791个均衡面板中的一致性家庭,包括3985个非均衡面板中的家庭——来自孟加拉国具有全国代表性的多用途五轮(1988年、2000年、2004年、2008年和2014年)Mahabub Hossain面板数据——我们为不同农村信贷来源(包括正规银行、准正规小额信贷机构和非正规渠道)对家庭福利指标的长期影响提供了证据。我们发现,获得农村信贷对一些福利指标的长期影响在统计上是微不足道的,有时甚至是负面的。当我们单独考察不同农村信贷来源的影响时,这一发现大多成立。我们的研究结果对一些信贷来源,特别是小额信贷机构的渐进式贷款提出了一个问题,并对在孟加拉国引入全国信贷局产生了影响。
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引用次数: 0
Could Better Jobs for Men Have Improved Gender Equality? The Relationship between Economic Growth and Gender Equality in India 为男性提供更好的工作能促进性别平等吗?印度经济增长与性别平等的关系
Q4 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1142/s0116110523500105
SUJATA BALASUBRAMANIAN
Economic theory suggests that growth may improve gender equality directly by raising women’s employment and indirectly by reducing poverty–thereby causing poorer families to discriminate less against females in intra-household allocations. This paper argues that growth in India has not substantially improved gender equality because it has not sufficiently activated either of these mechanisms. I analyze structural changes from 1982/83 to 2011/12 to show that India’s high-growth period has not been pro-poor. While female employment levels have actually declined since the 1980s, growth has not expanded remunerative employment opportunities sufficiently, even for poor males. This suggests that better-paid jobs for men—by lowering poverty—might actually have led to greater gender equality in India—by reducing poverty-linked gender discrimination. The analysis thus highlights the importance of pro-poor growth, illustrating how structural changes can shape employment, thereby altering the quality of growth and its impact on gender equality.
经济理论表明,经济增长可以通过增加妇女就业直接改善性别平等,通过减少贫困间接改善性别平等,从而使较贫穷的家庭在家庭内部分配中减少对女性的歧视。本文认为,印度的增长并没有实质性地改善性别平等,因为它没有充分激活这两个机制中的任何一个。我分析了1982/83年至2011/12年的结构性变化,结果表明印度的高增长时期并非有利于穷人。虽然自1980年代以来女性就业水平实际上有所下降,但增长并没有充分扩大有报酬的就业机会,即使对贫穷的男性也是如此。这表明,通过减少贫困,为男性提供更高收入的工作,实际上可能会导致印度更大程度的性别平等,减少与贫困相关的性别歧视。因此,分析强调了有利于穷人的增长的重要性,说明了结构变化如何影响就业,从而改变增长的质量及其对性别平等的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Which Way to Go Now? Financing Economic Growth in the Sustainable Development Era 现在该走哪条路?可持续发展时代的经济增长融资
Q4 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1142/s0116110523500142
SUDIP RANJAN BASU, MONICA DAS
Our paper uses a novel methodology to reexamine the relationship between financial development and economic growth in the era of sustainable development. Our empirical procedure deals with both functional-form misspecification bias as well as bias from endogenous regressors. It also provides an estimate of the growth-finance relationship for every country-year observation, allowing us to examine the relationship of interest for various country groups, using a global sample of 133 countries during 1960–2015. Our results indicate that countries with weak institutions and a smaller-than-average banking sector will reap more benefits from bank-based financial systems. The impact of financial development on economic performance has enormous policy implications for international institutions that provide policy support to countries in their pursuit of achieving the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.
本文运用一种新颖的方法,重新审视可持续发展时代金融发展与经济增长的关系。我们的经验程序处理功能形式的错误说明偏差以及来自内生回归量的偏差。它还提供了对每个国家-年度观察的增长-融资关系的估计,使我们能够使用1960-2015年期间133个国家的全球样本来检查不同国家群体的利益关系。我们的研究结果表明,那些机构薄弱、银行业规模低于平均水平的国家将从以银行为基础的金融体系中获得更多好处。金融发展对经济表现的影响对为各国实现《2030年可持续发展议程》提供政策支持的国际机构具有巨大的政策影响。
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引用次数: 0
Mini Symposium: Selected Papers from AEDC 2022 小型研讨会:AEDC 2022论文选集
Q4 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1142/s0116110523020018
Xin Meng
Asian Development ReviewVol. 40, No. 02, pp. 1-3 (2023) Open AccessMini Symposium: Selected Papers from AEDC 2022Xin MengXin MengAustralian National University, Australiahttps://doi.org/10.1142/S0116110523020018Cited by:0 (Source: Crossref) Next AboutSectionsPDF/EPUB ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack CitationsRecommend to Library ShareShare onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditEmail References Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). 2022. “Society at a Glance: Asia/Pacific 2022.” https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/384c9ab9-en/index.html? itemId=/content/component/384c9ab9-en (accessed 28 June 2023). Google Scholar FiguresReferencesRelatedDetails Recommended Vol. 40, No. 02 Metrics Citing Articles Via: History PDF download
亚洲发展评论卷。40, No. 02, pp. 1-3 (2023) Open AccessMini Symposium: from AEDC 2022Xin MengXin MengXin australian National University, australia . https://doi.org/10.1142/S0116110523020018Cited by:0(来源:Crossref)下一页sectionspdf /EPUB tools添加到收藏夹下载CitationsTrack citationsrecommended to Library分享分享on facebook twitter链接InRedditEmail参考资料经济合作与发展组织(OECD)2022. 《社会概览:亚太地区2022》。“https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/384c9ab9-en/index.html?itemId=/content/component/384c9ab9-en(2023年6月28日访问)。Google Scholar FiguresReferencesRelatedDetails推荐卷40,No. 02指标引用文章Via:历史PDF下载
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引用次数: 0
Population Aging, Pension Systems, and Economic Growth: Applying an Overlapping Generations Model to the Informal Sector 人口老龄化、养老金制度与经济增长:代际重叠模型在非正式部门的应用
Q4 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1142/s0116110523500154
NAVARAT TEMSUMRIT
This paper analyzes the effects of an unfunded pension system on economic growth using an extended overlapping generations model to include the informal sector. Emerging countries usually have a more significant informal sector than advanced ones. The findings based on the Thai economy data suggest that an increase in unfunded pension payouts and the noncontributory old-age allowance induces lower output and changes the consumption profiles of the workers. Furthermore, it reduces households’ incentives to save and provide labor, especially among formal workers, which lowers the physical capital stock in the new steady state.
本文利用扩展的重叠代模型分析了无资金准备的养老金制度对经济增长的影响,其中包括非正式部门。新兴国家通常比发达国家拥有更重要的非正式部门。基于泰国经济数据的研究结果表明,无基金养老金支出和非缴费老年津贴的增加导致产出下降,并改变了工人的消费状况。此外,它降低了家庭储蓄和提供劳动力的动机,特别是在正式工人中,这降低了新的稳定状态下的物质资本存量。
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引用次数: 1
Not All That It Seems: Narrowing of Gender Gaps in Employment during the Onset of COVID-19 in Indonesia 并非所有看起来的那样:印度尼西亚在COVID-19发病期间缩小就业中的性别差距
Q4 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1142/s0116110523400012
DANIEL HALIM, SEAN HAMBALI, RIRIN SALWA PURNAMASARI
This paper studies the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on Indonesia’s labor market, using the exogenous timing of the pandemic in a seasonal difference-in-differences framework. We use multiple rounds of Indonesia’s National Labor Force Survey to establish a pre-pandemic employment trend and attribute any difference from this trend to the estimated effect of the pandemic on employment outcomes. We find mixed impacts of the pandemic on Indonesia’s labor market. While the pandemic has reduced the gender gap in employment participation due to the “added worker effect” among women, it has also lowered overall employment quality among both women and men. The increase in female employment was mainly driven by women in rural areas without a high school education entering either informal agricultural employment or unpaid family work. For men, the pandemic had negative employment impacts for all subgroups. Among the employed, both women and men work fewer hours and earn lower wages.
本文采用季节性差异中的差异框架,利用疫情的外生时间,研究了COVID-19大流行对印尼劳动力市场的影响。我们利用多轮印度尼西亚全国劳动力调查来确定大流行前的就业趋势,并将这种趋势的任何差异归因于大流行对就业结果的估计影响。我们发现疫情对印尼劳动力市场的影响是复杂的。虽然由于妇女的"附加工人效应",大流行病缩小了就业参与方面的性别差距,但它也降低了妇女和男子的总体就业质量。妇女就业增加的主要原因是农村地区没有受过高中教育的妇女进入非正规农业就业或从事无报酬的家务劳动。对男性来说,这一流行病对所有亚群体的就业都产生了负面影响。在就业人群中,男女工作时间都更短,工资也更低。
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引用次数: 0
The Role of Foreign Direct Investment and Trade in Urbanization in Developing Asia: Structural Changes after the Global Financial Crisis 外国直接投资和贸易在亚洲发展中国家城市化中的作用:全球金融危机后的结构性变化
Q4 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1142/s0116110523500117
MADHABENDRA SINHA, DARIUS TIRTOSUHARTO
A dynamic between foreign direct investment (FDI) and international trade, and the level of urbanization, has been observed in many developing countries. This study seeks to fill a literature gap on the extent that FDI and international trade impact developing Asian economies through urbanization. The study explores the relationship between FDI, international trade, and urbanization in 31 developing Asian economies from 1991 to 2019, utilizing the dynamic panel model. Empirical results imply the significant effect of FDI inflows and trade openness on urbanization in developing Asia. The impact is clearly observed following the global financial crisis despite increased deglobalization. This finding supports the existence of structural changes and the transformation of economies in the region, which, among other factors, are driven by stronger global supply chains and improved logistics infrastructure in developing Asia.
在许多发展中国家已经观察到外国直接投资和国际贸易与城市化水平之间的动态关系。本研究旨在填补FDI和国际贸易通过城市化对亚洲发展中经济体影响程度的文献空白。利用动态面板模型,研究了1991 - 2019年亚洲31个发展中经济体FDI、国际贸易与城市化之间的关系。实证结果表明,FDI流入和贸易开放对亚洲发展中国家城市化的影响显著。在全球金融危机之后,尽管去全球化趋势加剧,但其影响仍显而易见。这一发现支持了该地区结构变化和经济转型的存在,除其他因素外,这些变化是由亚洲发展中国家更强大的全球供应链和改善的物流基础设施推动的。
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引用次数: 0
The People’s Republic of China’s 40-Year Demographic Dividend and Labor Supply: The Quantity Myth 中华人民共和国40年人口红利与劳动力供给:数量神话
Q4 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1142/s0116110523400048
XIN MENG
During the past 40 years, the economy of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has achieved miraculous growth, a significant part of which many have attributed to its favorable labor supply resulting from the country’s “demographic dividend”–that is, a relatively large share of the working-age population in the total population (WAPS). Currently, this dividend is slipping away, and many in the PRC are very concerned. Against this background, I set out to examine the contributions of various dimensions of the PRC’s changing WAPS and its impact on economic growth. I show that between 1982 and 2015 the increase in WAPS was offset by a decline in the labor force participation rate, resulting in a very limited increase in the quantity of the labor supply. I then estimate the association between regional variations in economic growth and changes in factors such as population size, WAPS, migration, and education. The results lend little support to the view that an expanding WAPS played a major role in the PRC’s economic growth over this period.
在过去的40年里,中华人民共和国(PRC)的经济取得了奇迹般的增长,其中很大一部分归功于该国的“人口红利”——即劳动年龄人口在总人口(WAPS)中所占的相对较大的份额——所带来的有利的劳动力供应。目前,这一红利正在消失,许多中国人对此非常担忧。在此背景下,我开始研究中国不断变化的WAPS的各个方面的贡献及其对经济增长的影响。我表明,在1982年至2015年间,WAPS的增加被劳动力参与率的下降所抵消,导致劳动力供应量的增加非常有限。然后,我估计了经济增长的区域差异与人口规模、WAPS、移民和教育等因素变化之间的关联。研究结果几乎不支持WAPS扩大在这一时期中国经济增长中发挥重要作用的观点。
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引用次数: 0
The Effects of Digitalization, Energy Intensity, and the Demographic Dividend on Viet Nam’s Economic Sustainability Goals 数字化、能源强度和人口红利对越南经济可持续发展目标的影响
Q4 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1142/s0116110523500129
NGO THAI HUNG
This research examines how the digital economy, energy efficiency, and demographic transition might help Viet Nam achieve more sustainable economic development. The causal association between digitalization, the demographic dividend, energy intensity, and long-term economic development has not been thoroughly investigated yet. Therefore, this paper aims to examine the asymmetric relationship between these indicators in Viet Nam, which is recognized as an emerging economy, using the relatively novel quantile-on-quantile regression and Granger causality approaches in different quantiles. The empirical findings suggest that the asymmetric interaction between digital innovation, energy intensity, demographic change, and economic growth in Viet Nam is primarily positive, even though there are slight differences across various quantiles of the selected indicators. In addition, the outcomes of Granger causality in quantile analysis uncover that, during the sample period, a bidirectional association exists between digitalization, the demographic dividend, and economic growth, while a unidirectional causality runs from energy intensity to economic growth.
本研究探讨了数字经济、能源效率和人口转型如何帮助越南实现更可持续的经济发展。数字化、人口红利、能源强度与长期经济发展之间的因果关系尚未得到深入研究。因此,本文旨在研究这些指标之间的不对称关系在越南,这是公认的新兴经济体,使用相对新颖的分位数对分位数回归和格兰杰因果关系方法在不同的分位数。实证结果表明,越南数字创新、能源强度、人口变化和经济增长之间的不对称相互作用主要是正的,尽管所选指标的各个分位数之间存在细微差异。此外,分位数分析的格兰杰因果关系结果表明,在样本期内,数字化、人口红利与经济增长之间存在双向因果关系,而从能源强度到经济增长之间存在单向因果关系。
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引用次数: 0
Climate-Related Transition Risk and Corporate Debt Financing: Evidence from Southeast Asia 气候相关转型风险与企业债务融资:来自东南亚的证据
Q4 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1142/s0116110523400036
GEMMA ESTRADA, RESI ONG OLIVARES, DONGHYUN PARK, SHU TIAN
The Paris Agreement signals increased climate awareness and potential changes in the business environment as an economy decarbonizes. Ratification of the Paris Agreement could heighten climate-related transition risks, especially for companies in high-emitting industries. This research analyzes the impact of Paris Agreement ratification on the debt financing decisions of publicly listed companies in Southeast Asian economies. Our empirical evidence shows that, after announcement of Paris Agreement ratification, firms in high-emitting industries have leverage and financial leverage that are an average of 1.8% and 4.2% lower, respectively, than firms in low-emitting industries. Firms in the region also witnessed higher risks 2 years after ratification, and these risks do not differ significantly between high- and low-emitting industries. This finding implies that firms become riskier under heightened transition risks, and this influences their financial decisions. Governments might thus consider introducing policies that facilitate their response to a low-carbon transition.
《巴黎协定》表明,随着经济脱碳,气候意识增强,商业环境可能发生变化。批准《巴黎协定》可能会加大与气候相关的转型风险,特别是对高排放行业的公司而言。本研究分析了批准《巴黎协定》对东南亚经济体上市公司债务融资决策的影响。我们的实证证据表明,在宣布批准《巴黎协定》后,高排放行业企业的杠杆率和财务杠杆率平均分别比低排放行业企业低1.8%和4.2%。该地区企业在批准后2年的风险也更高,这些风险在高排放行业和低排放行业之间没有显著差异。这一发现表明,在转型风险加剧的情况下,企业的风险增加,这影响了他们的财务决策。因此,各国政府可考虑出台有利于其应对低碳转型的政策。
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引用次数: 0
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Asian Development Review
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