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Impact of Microcredit on Second Generation Borrowers in Bangladesh: Revisited 小额信贷对孟加拉国第二代借款人的影响:重新审视
Pub Date : 2020-03-01 DOI: 10.1177/1391561420908086
Laila Arjuman Ara, Mohammad Masudur Rahman, Chanwahn Kim
This article investigates the economic impact of continuing borrowers’ participation in the microcredit programme on poverty eradication in Bangladesh. A panel data set was collected through a field survey for the years 2013–2016 to identify the impact of a microcredit programme on continuous participation borrowers. The propensity score matching (PSM) method is used to eliminate selection bias and the difference-in-difference (DID) model is applied for the empirical analysis. The findings of the study demonstrate that more benefits are realized from continued participants compared to discontinued participants. JEL: C83, D14, G21, O12
本文调查了借款人继续参与小额信贷计划对孟加拉国消除贫困的经济影响。通过2013-2016年的实地调查收集了一个小组数据集,以确定小额信贷计划对持续参与借款人的影响。采用倾向得分匹配(PSM)方法消除选择偏差,采用差分差分(DID)模型进行实证分析。研究结果表明,与停止服用的参与者相比,继续服用的参与者获益更多。耶利米书:83,14,21,12
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引用次数: 1
Liberalizing Bangladesh’s Services Trade: Is Joining Trade in Services Agreement the Way to Go? 开放孟加拉国服务贸易:加入服务贸易协定是出路吗?
Pub Date : 2020-02-23 DOI: 10.1177/1391561420903198
Susara J. Jansen van Rensburg, R. Rossouw, W. Viviers
Although currently limited, services trade holds great potential for Bangladesh, as services already make a major contribution to GDP and employment. Services represent an important alternative (in the longer term) or complement (in the shorter term) to ready-made garments (RMGs), which have long dominated Bangladesh’s export mix. The country is poised to see declining RMG export revenues when the country graduates out of least developed country (LDC) status and loses its trade preferences in global markets. To build domestic capacity with a view to developing its services export sector, Bangladesh needs to open its market to services imports. But what approach would be best? Can a plurilateral trade agreement (PTA) like the Trade in Services Agreement (TiSA), whose members have sought to stimulate their services sectors through more liberalized trade, ever be an option? We use a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate the effects of TiSA membership on Bangladesh’s economy. The results show that, overall, Bangladesh would derive marginal benefit from TiSA, but employment and exports would suffer. The worst-affected sectors would be agriculture and textiles and clothing, the country’s largest employers. To lessen the impact of increased foreign competition, a regional trade approach is recommended, supported by a sound national services strategy which would include a roadmap for tackling the country’s myriad supply-side shortcomings. JEL: F13, F14, F15, F16
虽然目前有限,但服务贸易对孟加拉国具有巨大潜力,因为服务业已经对国内生产总值和就业作出了重大贡献。服务业是成衣(rmg)的重要替代品(长期而言)或补充(短期而言),成衣长期以来一直主导着孟加拉国的出口结构。当该国走出最不发达国家(LDC)地位并失去其在全球市场上的贸易优惠时,该国即将看到RMG出口收入下降。为了建设国内能力以发展其服务出口部门,孟加拉国需要向服务进口开放市场。但是哪种方法是最好的呢?像《服务贸易协定》(TiSA)这样的诸边贸易协定(PTA),其成员国试图通过更自由化的贸易来刺激本国的服务业,能成为一种选择吗?我们使用动态可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型来模拟TiSA成员资格对孟加拉国经济的影响。结果表明,总体而言,孟加拉国将从TiSA中获得边际利益,但就业和出口将受到影响。受影响最严重的行业将是农业、纺织和服装业,这是该国最大的雇主。为了减轻外国竞争加剧的影响,建议采用区域贸易方法,并辅以健全的国家服务战略,其中包括解决该国无数供应方面缺点的路线图。Jel: f13, f14, f15, f16
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引用次数: 0
Impact of Remittances on Domestic Investment: A Panel Study of Six South Asian Countries 汇款对国内投资的影响:南亚六国的面板研究
Pub Date : 2020-02-23 DOI: 10.1177/1391561420903199
R. Dash
Remittances inflow to South Asian countries increased significantly and is now one of the major sources of external finance overtaking traditional capital inflows such as foreign direct investment (FDI), foreign portfolio investment (FPI) and aid. However, the role of remittances in economic development has not been examined extensively, particularly for South Asian countries. This article examines the impact of remittances on domestic investment for South Asia over 1991–2017. Advanced panel estimation methods (unit root, cointegration and causality) are employed to account for potential country-specific heterogeneity and the endogeneity problem. Results of this study suggest that remittances increase domestic investment in the short term as well as in the long run for South Asia. This indicates that remittances are used not only for consumption purposes but also for investment activities such as human and physical capital development. The panel causality results suggest the presence of uni-directional causality running from remittances to domestic investment. Therefore, the result of this study supports the theoretical argument and previous empirical studies for other developing countries JEL: C3, 01, F3, F22
流入南亚国家的汇款大幅增加,现在已成为超过外国直接投资、外国证券投资和援助等传统资本流入的主要外部资金来源之一。然而,汇款在经济发展中的作用尚未得到广泛审查,特别是对南亚国家而言。本文考察了1991-2017年汇款对南亚国内投资的影响。采用先进的面板估计方法(单位根、协整和因果关系)来解释潜在的国家特定异质性和内生性问题。本研究的结果表明,汇款在短期和长期都增加了南亚的国内投资。这表明汇款不仅用于消费目的,而且还用于人力和物质资本开发等投资活动。面板因果关系结果表明,存在从汇款到国内投资的单向因果关系。因此,本研究的结果支持了其他发展中国家的理论观点和以往的实证研究JEL: C3, 01, F3, F22
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引用次数: 22
Anatomy of Non-tariff Barriers in India–Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement: An Empirical Investigation 印度-斯里兰卡自由贸易协定非关税壁垒剖析:实证研究
Pub Date : 2020-02-10 DOI: 10.1177/1391561420903210
B. Pal, S. Pohit
This article attempts to answer one crucial research question: why the utilization of India–Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement (ISFTA) route for trade is very poor by the Indian exporters (13%) as compared to their Sri Lankan counterpart (65%) even after one decade of its implementation? The available studies have blamed the non-tariff barriers (NTBs) which are hamstringing the growth of trade between these partners development of international trade. However, these have considered NTBs as subset of non-tariff measures (NTMs) which are quite narrow sense of finding the hidden barriers within the International trade process. Therefore, this article has analysed in detail the logistic process involved in international trade between India and Sri Lanka to understand various NTBs sheltered within this logistic process. Further, the article has identified issues which are not directly beyond the logistic process which are affecting the international trade between these two countries. JEL: F0, F1
本文试图回答一个关键的研究问题:为什么在印度-斯里兰卡自由贸易协定(ISFTA)实施十年后,印度出口商对贸易路线的利用(13%)与斯里兰卡出口商(65%)相比非常差?现有的研究归咎于非关税壁垒(NTBs),它们阻碍了这些伙伴之间的贸易增长和国际贸易的发展。然而,它们将非关税措施视为非关税措施的子集,而非关税措施是在国际贸易过程中发现隐藏壁垒的相当狭义的非关税措施。因此,本文详细分析了印度和斯里兰卡之间国际贸易所涉及的物流过程,以了解在这一物流过程中庇护的各种非关税壁垒。此外,本文还确定了影响这两个国家之间国际贸易的不直接超出物流过程的问题。杰尔:f0, f1
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引用次数: 2
Dimensions of Informality in Bangladesh Labour Market and the Consequent Wage Penalty 孟加拉国劳动力市场非正式性的维度和随之而来的工资惩罚
Pub Date : 2019-09-01 DOI: 10.1177/1391561419850303
Mustafiz Rahman, D. Bhattacharya, Md. Al-Hasan
The article examines the various dimensions and underlying causes of informal employment in the Bangladesh labour market and the associated wage penalty. Based on labour force survey data for successive points, we trace the dynamics of employment in Bangladesh along the informal–formal divide over time. Given that wage differential remains a key feature concerning the two market segments, we have carried out mean and quantile decomposition exercises to estimate the wage penalty originating from informality. We find significant wage gaps between formal- and informal-paid employees, formal paid and informal day labour, and formal paid and informal self-employed. The wage gaps range between 65.0 per cent and 225.0 per cent. The gap arises from a combination of observed differences in human capital and job characteristics, and the wage premium accruing from formal employment. JEL: C21, J31
本文考察了孟加拉国劳动力市场非正规就业的各个方面和潜在原因以及相关的工资惩罚。根据连续几个点的劳动力调查数据,我们沿着非正式-正式的分界线追踪了孟加拉国的就业动态。鉴于工资差异仍然是两个细分市场的一个关键特征,我们进行了均值和分位数分解练习,以估计因非正式性而产生的工资惩罚。我们发现,在正式和非正式有偿雇员、正式有偿和非正式临时工、正式有偿和非正式自雇人士之间存在显著的工资差距。工资差距在65.0%至225.0%之间。这一差距是由人力资本和工作特征方面观察到的差异,以及正式就业带来的工资溢价共同造成的。j21, j31
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引用次数: 5
Tests of Income Convergence in ASEAN and SAARC Trading Blocs 东盟和南盟贸易集团收入趋同的检验
Pub Date : 2019-09-01 DOI: 10.1177/1391561419858239
U. Zia, Z. Mahmood
The cherished goal of speedy economic growth in the Asian regional blocs cannot be achieved without attaining income convergence among them. Economic integration and assessment of income convergence or disparities among Asian blocs is the aim of this study. This study assesses a number of factors, such as trade openness, foreign direct investment, intellectual property rights protection and governance, to see how open economies are integrating themselves while competing with each other. Findings reveal that the SAARC group has not shown intra-regional income convergence, while the ASEAN group provides sufficient evidence. Although simultaneously considering SAARC and ASEAN groups in the form of a panel, there is evidence of non-convergence between the two regional groups. An important policy implication of the study is that the ASEAN and SAARC blocs are in dire need for combined and collective policy framework at the regional level. JEL: O19, O31, F15
如果不实现亚洲区域集团之间的收入趋同,亚洲区域集团经济迅速增长的宝贵目标就不可能实现。本研究的目的在于经济整合及评估亚洲各集团间的收入趋同或差距。这项研究评估了一系列因素,如贸易开放程度、外国直接投资、知识产权保护和治理,以了解开放经济体如何在相互竞争的同时实现自我整合。研究结果表明,南盟集团没有表现出区域内收入趋同,而东盟集团提供了充分的证据。虽然以一个小组的形式同时审议南盟和东盟集团,但有证据表明这两个区域集团之间没有趋同。该研究的一个重要政策含义是,东盟和南盟集团迫切需要区域一级的联合和集体政策框架。耶:19、31、15
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引用次数: 7
Nexus between Openness to Trade and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation of Afghanistan 贸易开放与经济增长的关系:对阿富汗的实证调查
Pub Date : 2019-09-01 DOI: 10.1177/1391561419858242
Nassir Ul Haq Wani
The notion that the international trade is the foundation of economic growth dates long back, and even now, an irresistible body of literature confirms a strong and positive link between trade openness and economic growth. However, most of these studies are focused on developed countries. Indeed literature from developing countries are scant, those from under developed and a landlocked country like Afghanistan are almost non-existent. This article endeavours to innovatively scrutinize the relationship between trade liberalization and economic growth in Afghanistan, using biannual data for the period 1995–2016 and thus evaluates the comparative effect of three different measures of trade openness on the economic growth by using more rigorous econometric techniques. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method, JJ CO-integration and ordinary least square (OLS) results suggest significant positive long-run relationship between export and economic growth. In contrast, total volume of trade and imports have significant negative effect on the economic growth. The addition of variables and results of fully modified OLS suggest that the results are robust. The Granger causality and variance decomposition analysis indicate the unidirectional causality between trade openness and economic growth. In export model, causality runs from export to growth. Whereas, in the model with total volume of trade and import, causality runs from growth to total volume of trade and imports in Afghanistan. From the findings, it is concluded that the policymakers should focus on export promotion strategy to enhance the economic growth in Afghanistan. Besides, efficient utilization of capital goods should be ensured and reliance on non-capital goods should be less in order to ensure high domestic production in the country. JEL: F10, F43, C22
国际贸易是经济增长的基础这一概念由来已久,即使在现在,也有大量文献证实了贸易开放与经济增长之间存在着强有力的积极联系。然而,这些研究大多集中在发达国家。的确,来自发展中国家的文献很少,而来自欠发达国家和像阿富汗这样的内陆国家的文献几乎不存在。本文试图利用1995-2016年期间的两年一次的数据,创新地审视阿富汗贸易自由化与经济增长之间的关系,从而通过使用更严格的计量经济学技术,评估三种不同的贸易开放措施对经济增长的比较效果。自回归分布滞后(ARDL)方法、JJ协整和普通最小二乘(OLS)结果表明出口与经济增长之间存在显著的长期正相关关系。相反,贸易总额和进口总额对经济增长有显著的负面影响。变量的加入和完全修正OLS的结果表明,结果是稳健的。格兰杰因果关系和方差分解分析表明,贸易开放与经济增长之间存在单向因果关系。在出口模型中,因果关系从出口到增长。然而,在贸易和进口总量模型中,因果关系从增长到阿富汗的贸易和进口总量。研究结果表明,政策制定者应重视出口促进战略,以促进阿富汗的经济增长。此外,应确保有效利用资本货物,并应减少对非资本货物的依赖,以确保该国的高国内产量。Jel: f10, f43, c22
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引用次数: 4
Tourism and Foreign Direct Investment Inflows in Sri Lanka 斯里兰卡的旅游业和外国直接投资流入
Pub Date : 2019-09-01 DOI: 10.1177/1391561419858475
K. Ravinthirakumaran, E. Selvanathan, S. Selvanathan, Tarlok Singh
This article examines the relationship between tourism and foreign direct investment (FDI) and the factors that enhance tourism in Sri Lanka using data over the years 1978–2015, under a vector autoregressive framework. The results reveal that there is a significant long-run equilibrium relationship between tourism, and a number of variables such as FDI, exchange rate, tourism price and civil war of the country. The results also reveal that there exist unidirectional causal relationships from FDI to tourism and tourism price to tourism, in both the long run and the short run. In light of this finding, it is recommended that Sri Lanka should introduce policies that would increase FDI inflows into the tourism industry and maintain a competitive tourism price to attract more tourist arrivals. JEL: C32, F19, F41, O53
本文在矢量自回归框架下,利用1978-2015年的数据,研究了旅游业与外国直接投资(FDI)之间的关系,以及促进斯里兰卡旅游业发展的因素。结果表明,旅游业与外国直接投资、汇率、旅游价格和国家内战等变量之间存在显著的长期均衡关系。研究结果还表明,FDI与旅游、旅游价格与旅游之间存在单向因果关系,无论从长期还是短期来看都是如此。根据这一发现,建议斯里兰卡应采取政策,增加外国直接投资流入旅游业,并保持有竞争力的旅游价格,以吸引更多的游客。耶利米书:32,19,41,53
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引用次数: 9
Club Convergence among the Major Indian States During 1982–2014: Does Investment in Human Capital Matter? 1982-2014年印度主要邦的俱乐部趋同:人力资本投资重要吗?
Pub Date : 2019-09-01 DOI: 10.1177/1391561419850300
Sulekha Hembram, Souparna Maji, Sushil Kr. Haldar
The objective of this study is to investigate the presence of ‘club convergence’ in respect of income among 15 major states in India during 1982–2014 using Markov chain along with stochastic kernel. The distributional dynamics observed among the major states support the process of ‘club convergence’. The empirical findings prove the hypotheses that economies that are similar in their structural characteristics and initial per capita income levels will converge with each other in per capita terms in the long run. The present study empirically re-establishes the hypotheses of ‘low-level equilibrium trap’ caused by low human capital investment. JEL: C14, H51, H52, O49, O53
本研究的目的是利用马尔可夫链和随机核研究1982-2014年期间印度15个主要邦的收入“俱乐部收敛”的存在。在主要国家之间观察到的分配动态支持“俱乐部趋同”的过程。实证结果证明了结构特征和初始人均收入水平相似的经济体在长期内人均收入水平会趋于一致的假设。本文实证地重新建立了低人力资本投资导致的“低水平均衡陷阱”假说。耶利米书:c14, h51, h52, o49, o53
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引用次数: 11
Size-Competition-Productivity Nexus: Evidence from Indian Manufacturing Firms 规模-竞争-生产力关系:来自印度制造企业的证据
Pub Date : 2019-09-01 DOI: 10.1177/1391561419859185
L. Satpathy, B. R. Mishra
Over the years, researches have witnessed incongruence nature and direction of relationship among product market competition and firm size with the growth of firms’ productivity across the globe. Considering these gaps, this study aims to establish both short- and long-run relationships among these three characteristics of Indian manufacturing firms and intends to find their directions of causalities. This study uses firm-level data over a period of 1998–1999 to 2012–2013. Using Panel ARDL-PMG method, the results reveal the existence of a long-run association among product market competition, firm size and productivity growth for the full sample and for subsamples, categorizing relatively efficient and inefficient firms, and innovative and non-innovative firms. From the panel VECM Granger causality test, it has been observed that there is the long-run feedback relationship among these three variables. The empirical evidence suggests that as the intensity of competition becomes stronger and the firm-specific capabilities expand, they impart improved productivity via within and between firm effects. This draws some major implications for policymakers to embrace more competitive prone policies along with encouragement to firm specificities to realise value-added productivity. JEL: C33, D24, L11, L60
多年来的研究发现,全球范围内,产品市场竞争和企业规模与企业生产率增长之间的关系具有不一致的性质和方向。考虑到这些差距,本研究旨在建立印度制造业企业这三个特征之间的短期和长期关系,并试图找到它们的因果关系方向。本研究使用1998-1999年至2012-2013年期间的公司层面数据。采用面板ARDL-PMG方法,结果表明,在全样本和子样本中,产品市场竞争、企业规模和生产率增长之间存在长期关联,并对相对高效和低效的企业、创新和非创新企业进行了分类。从面板VECM格兰杰因果检验可以看出,这三个变量之间存在长期的反馈关系。实证证据表明,随着竞争强度的增强和企业特定能力的扩大,它们通过企业内部和企业之间的效应来提高生产率。这给政策制定者带来了一些重要的启示,即在鼓励企业实现增值生产力的同时,采取更具竞争力的政策。耶利米书:33,24,11,16
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引用次数: 2
期刊
South Asia Economic Journal
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