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An Analysis of Trade Credit Behaviour of Indian Firms 印度企业贸易信用行为分析
Pub Date : 2021-03-01 DOI: 10.1177/13915614211009659
N. Kumar, Arvind Shrivastava, Purnendu Kumar, M. Bhatti
Trade credit transactions are quite common for businesses. The article carries out the trade credit analysis for an emerging economy, namely Indian corporate sector employing rich information dataset covering multiple industries such as manufacturing, services, construction and others, since the period of financial crisis including both firm specific and macro-economic factors. The annual dataset spans 13 years from 2006 to 2018 covering the crisis period. Applying dynamic panel framework, it is found that the inventory management and macro indicators are significant in determining trade credit for Indian firms. While trade payable is chiefly driven by raw material inventory, firms having reasonable stock of raw or finished goods inventory are less likely to offer trade credit. Large-sized firms are found to be both leading consumers and suppliers of the trade credit. The pecking order theory is clearly validated with net profits being preferred over the trade credit that is a more expensive source of finance. Credit from formal financial sources is found to act as a substitute to trade credit borrowing. JEL: G3, G21, E4, C23
贸易信贷交易对企业来说是很常见的。本文采用涵盖制造业、服务业、建筑业等多个行业的丰富信息数据集,对金融危机以来新兴经济体即印度企业部门的贸易信用进行分析,包括企业具体因素和宏观经济因素。年度数据集跨越了2006年至2018年的13年,涵盖了危机时期。应用动态面板框架,发现库存管理和宏观指标对印度企业的贸易信贷有显著影响。虽然应付贸易主要是由原材料库存驱动的,但拥有合理原材料或制成品库存的公司不太可能提供贸易信贷。研究发现,大型企业是贸易信贷的主要消费者和提供者。优先顺序理论显然得到了验证,净利润比贸易信贷更受青睐,后者是一种更昂贵的融资来源。研究发现,来自正式金融来源的信贷可以替代贸易信贷借款。Jel: g3, g21, e4, c23
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引用次数: 1
Structural Transformation in South Asia: Does the Pattern Ensure Growth Momentum? 南亚的结构转型:结构转型能保证增长势头吗?
Pub Date : 2021-03-01 DOI: 10.1177/1391561421989855
R. Jha, S. Afrin
We model the evolution and determinants of shares of agriculture, manufacturing and services to gross domestic product for four South Asian countries (Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka and Pakistan) for 41 years (1974–2018) to understand their structural transformation pattern. Determinants of shares were classified into three broad categories: ‘country fundamentals’, ‘policy’ and ‘decadal dummies’. This is the first article to investigate the empirical regularities of the structural transformation pattern and their determinants for this region. The generalized least squares estimation technique for panel data was applied. We find mixed evidence in support of structural transformation. With the increase in per capita income, the share of agriculture decreases and that of services increases, partially supporting the Kuznets hypothesis; however, the share of manufacturing sector shows a more tepid rise and even decreases in some model specifications. Thus, the Kuznets model of structural transformation is supported to some extent, but not strongly for these countries. JEL: C22, C23, F63, O11
我们对四个南亚国家(孟加拉国、印度、斯里兰卡和巴基斯坦)41年(1974-2018年)农业、制造业和服务业在国内生产总值中所占份额的演变及其决定因素进行了建模,以了解它们的结构转型模式。股票的决定因素被分为三大类:“国家基本面”、“政策”和“十年傻瓜”。本文首次探讨了该地区结构转型模式的经验规律及其决定因素。应用广义最小二乘估计技术对面板数据进行估计。我们发现了支持结构转型的混合证据。随着人均收入的增加,农业占比减少,服务业占比增加,这在一定程度上支持了库兹涅茨的假设;然而,制造业的份额显示出更温和的增长,甚至在一些型号规格中有所下降。因此,库兹涅茨的结构转型模型在一定程度上得到了支持,但对这些国家来说并不强烈。Jel: c22, c23, f63, o11
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引用次数: 0
An Estimation of the Implementation Costs and Financing Options for Introducing a Universal Pension Scheme in Bangladesh 对在孟加拉国推行普遍养恤金计划的实施成本和融资选择的估计
Pub Date : 2021-03-01 DOI: 10.1177/13915614211008102
Mustafiz Rahman, T. I. Khan, Mostafa Amir Sabbih
The number of people aged more than 60 in Bangladesh is projected to constitute 20% of total population by 2051. The demographic momentum makes it necessary to pursue policies that guarantee a secured life for the country’s senior citizens. Currently, more than 40% of old age population (more than 65 years) in Bangladesh do not receive any type of pension or social security benefits. In this backdrop, introduction of a universal pension scheme (UPS) is an idea that should merit serious consideration. The idea of a UPS is also aligned with several Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) targets. Based on the International Labour Organization multi-pillar pension model, the article deals with required financing under different scenarios of introducing UPS in Bangladesh. The study estimates that for introducing a non-contributory UPS in Bangladesh, it would require an additional average allocation equivalent to 0.1%–0.5% of gross domestic product per annum between now and 2040. The article also estimates financing needs considering two options for the contributory UPS. The article concludes that UPS in Bangladesh can be launched on a limited scale which then could be expanded in scope and coverage in a gradual and phased manner. The article also underscores that introduction of UPS will create opportunities to rationalize the existing safety net programmes that will release funds for underwriting the UPS. JEL: H53, H55, I31, I38
预计到2051年,孟加拉国60岁以上的人口将占总人口的20%。人口增长势头使得有必要推行保障该国老年人有保障的生活的政策。目前,孟加拉国超过40%的老年人口(65岁以上)没有领取任何类型的养老金或社会保障福利。在这种背景下,引入全民养老金计划(UPS)是一个值得认真考虑的想法。UPS的理念也与若干可持续发展目标(SDG)目标相一致。本文以国际劳工组织的多支柱养老金模式为基础,分析了在孟加拉国引入UPS的不同情况下所需的资金。该研究估计,从现在到2040年,在孟加拉国引入非缴费式UPS将需要每年平均增加相当于国内生产总值0.1%-0.5%的拨款。文章还估计了融资需求,考虑了两种选择的分担UPS。文章的结论是,孟加拉国的UPS可以在有限的规模上推出,然后可以逐步和分阶段地扩大范围和覆盖范围。文章还强调,UPS的引入将创造机会,使现有的安全网计划合理化,这将为承保UPS提供资金。耶利米:h53, h55, i31, i38
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引用次数: 0
Terrorism and Brain Drain in Pakistan: Is There a Connection? 巴基斯坦的恐怖主义和人才流失:有联系吗?
Pub Date : 2021-03-01 DOI: 10.1177/1391561421997216
Sidra Feroz, B. Yasmin
This study empirically investigates the effect of terrorism and other push and pull factors on the skilled labour out-migration in Pakistan over the time period 1973–2015. The empirical findings based on fully modified ordinary least squares (FM-OLS) technique suggest that the waves of terrorism have not significantly driven the out-migration of skilled labour from Pakistan. Relatively, traditional push factors including inflation, unemployment and rising capital share in gross domestic product (GDP) have remained the major factors behind brain drain from Pakistan. Comparatively, the per capita economic growth, poverty and host and origin country’s emigration policies have curtailed the skilled out-migration. The findings suggest improving socio-economic conditions, increasing GDP per capita and decreasing unemployment and inflation in order to control the out-migration of skilled workers from Pakistan. Besides, the domestic labour market is required to boost the absorption capacity of highly educated and qualified workers in the country by making them more compatible to the existing stock of capital to restrict the brain drain. JEL: F22, F52, J24, C32
本研究实证研究了1973-2015年期间恐怖主义和其他推拉因素对巴基斯坦技术劳动力外迁的影响。基于完全修正的普通最小二乘(FM-OLS)技术的实证结果表明,恐怖主义浪潮并没有显著推动熟练劳动力从巴基斯坦向外迁移。相对而言,包括通货膨胀、失业和国内生产总值(GDP)中资本份额上升在内的传统推动因素仍然是巴基斯坦人才流失的主要因素。相比之下,人均经济增长、贫困以及东道国和原籍国的移民政策限制了技术人员的外迁。调查结果表明,改善社会经济条件,增加人均国内生产总值,减少失业和通货膨胀,以便控制巴基斯坦技术工人的外移。此外,需要国内劳动力市场提高该国对受过高等教育和合格工人的吸收能力,使他们与现有的资本存量更相容,以限制人才外流。j22, f52, j24, c32
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引用次数: 1
The Impact of Policy Shift from In-kind Transfers to Direct Cash Transfers on Paddy Production: Evidence from Mahaweli H System in Sri Lanka 从实物转移到直接现金转移的政策转变对水稻生产的影响:来自斯里兰卡Mahaweli H系统的证据
Pub Date : 2021-03-01 DOI: 10.1177/13915614211004821
S. Perera, A. Rathnayake, Janaka Fernando, T. Navaratne, D. Rajapakshe
In 2016, the Sri Lankan government introduced a policy change related to fertilizer subsidy by converting the in-kind transfer into a direct cash transfer. This research article analyses the consequences of this policy change on the paddy production from economics perspective. The analysis uses national-level data from 1961 to 2013 and farm-level data collected in 2016. Macro-level findings manifest that the use of fertilizer significantly increases the paddy production in Sri Lanka. It was also identified that the cash amount granted under the direct cash transfer policy is not equivalent to the in-kind transfer programme. As a result, paddy production is expected to decline under the direct cash transfer programme when compared to the material subsidy scheme. However, this is against the preference of economists on direct cash transfers over in-kind transfers. The findings reveal that direct cash transfers increase the paddy production under two conditions: (a) when rational farmers effectively utilize the cash grants to optimize their production inputs; and (b) an equivalent amount of in-kind transfer is provided as direct cash transfer. Hence, direct cash transfers are not always better than in-kind transfers; it is better when in-kind transfer is compensated with an equivalent amount of cash transfer. JEL: A1, B1, B2, C1, C5, D6, N5
2016年,斯里兰卡政府出台了一项与化肥补贴相关的政策变化,将实物转移转化为直接现金转移。本文从经济学的角度分析了这一政策变化对水稻生产的影响。该分析使用了1961年至2013年的国家级数据和2016年收集的农场级数据。宏观层面的研究结果表明,化肥的使用显著提高了斯里兰卡的水稻产量。还查明,根据直接现金转移政策提供的现金数额不等于实物转移方案。因此,与物质补贴计划相比,直接现金转移方案下的水稻产量预计会下降。然而,这违背了经济学家对直接现金转移的偏好,而不是实物转移。研究结果表明,现金直接补助在两种情况下提高了水稻产量:理性农户有效利用现金补助优化生产投入;(b)提供等额的实物转移作为直接现金转移。因此,直接现金转移并不总是比实物转移好;最好是用等值的现金转移来补偿实物转移。Jel: a1 b1 b2 c1 c5 d6 n5
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引用次数: 0
The Nexus Of Foreign Reserves, Exchange Rate And Inflation: Recent Empirical Evidence From Sri Lanka 外汇储备、汇率和通货膨胀的关系:来自斯里兰卡的最新经验证据
Pub Date : 2021-02-07 DOI: 10.1177/1391561420987106
Ayesh Ariyasinghe, N. S. Cooray
The conventional mandates of the central banks on meeting stability objectives and maintaining a growth-maximizing inflation rate have come under some criticism since the global financial crises. Maintaining adequate foreign reserves is seen as a viable solution to foreign exchange liquidity needs during crisis periods. Since the end of 2011, many Asian economies, including China and Japan, led from the forefront in central bank-led reserves build-up. However, reserves build-up remains challenging and sensitive for small open economies. Such policies help create ‘risk-neutral’ buffers for monetary and fiscal authorities to absorb transitory current account shocks and foreign exchange stress to smoothen the balance of payments. This study is motivated by the importance of identifying the inflation–foreign reserves nexus that may affect inflation in a manner counterproductive to the central bank mandate of maintaining price stability. It probes the debate of the sustainability of reserves build-up in the long and the short term. The outcome of the study poses several vital questions for fiscal and monetary policymakers concerning their respective mandates. The reserves–inflation nexus and its magnitude is determined using monthly data spanning two decades, through engaging an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and relevant bounds-testing techniques proposed by Pesaran et al. The vector autoregression (VAR), error correction and Johansen cointegration methods supplement the robustness checks. Exchange rate is introduced to enrich the discussion on the reserves–inflation nexus and shows a cointegration relationship in the long run. The study provides an insight into the influence of exchange rate on reserves and inflation. The variance decomposition shows the presence of a lukewarm response from foreign reserves and exchange rate on inflation. Policymakers concerned with inflationary expectations in the medium-to-long term need to consider these signals, as reserves build-up is one of the important policy-driven objectives for a number of economies. JEL: C50, C32, E31, E52, E58, F30, F31, F39
自全球金融危机以来,央行实现稳定目标和维持增长最大化通胀率的传统使命受到了一些批评。保持充足的外汇储备被视为解决危机期间外汇流动性需求的可行办法。自2011年底以来,包括中国和日本在内的许多亚洲经济体在央行主导的外汇储备积累中走在了前列。然而,对于小型开放经济体而言,外汇储备的积累仍然具有挑战性和敏感性。这些政策有助于为货币和财政当局创造“风险中性”缓冲,以吸收暂时性经常账户冲击和外汇压力,以平衡国际收支。这项研究的动机是确定通货膨胀-外汇储备关系的重要性,这可能会以一种与央行维持价格稳定的任务相反的方式影响通货膨胀。它探讨了关于外汇储备积累在长期和短期内可持续性的争论。这项研究的结果为财政和货币政策制定者提出了几个有关其各自职责的重要问题。外汇储备与通货膨胀之间的联系及其幅度是通过采用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)模型和Pesaran等人提出的相关边界检验技术,使用跨越二十年的月度数据确定的。向量自回归(VAR)、误差校正和约翰森协整方法补充了鲁棒性检查。汇率的引入丰富了对储备-通货膨胀关系的讨论,并显示了长期的协整关系。该研究提供了汇率对外汇储备和通货膨胀的影响。方差分解表明,外汇储备和汇率对通货膨胀的反应不温不热。关注中长期通胀预期的政策制定者需要考虑这些信号,因为积累外汇储备是许多经济体重要的政策驱动目标之一。Jel: c50, c32, e31, e52, e58, f30, f31, f39
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引用次数: 2
Love Thy Neighbour? Perceived Community Abidance and Private Compliance to COVID-19 Norms in India 爱你的邻居?印度社区遵守和私人遵守COVID-19规范的情况
Pub Date : 2020-10-21 DOI: 10.1177/13915614211053928
Upasak Das, Prasenjit Sarkhel, Sania Ashraf
To arrest the spread of COVID-19 infection, strict adherence to frequent hand washing and respiratory hygiene protocols have been recommended. While these measures involve private effort, they provide health gains along with collective community benefits and hence are likely to be driven by pro-social motives like altruism and reciprocity. Using data from 934 respondents collected from April till May 2020 across India, we assess if changes in perceived community compliance can predict changes in individual compliance behaviour. We observe statistically significant and positive relationship between the two, even after accounting for observable and omitted variable bias allowing us to view the results from a plausible causal lens. Further, we find subsequent lockdowns having a detrimental effect on individual compliance though the gains from higher perceived community compliance seem to offset this loss. We also find positive perceptions about community can be particularly effective for people with pre-existing co-morbidities. Our findings underscore the need for multi-level behavioural interventions involving local actors and community institutions to sustain private compliance during the pandemic. We suggest these interventions need to be specially targeted for individuals with chronic ailments and emphasize on community behavioural practices in public messaging. JEL Codes: I12, I18, I19, I31
为遏制COVID-19感染的传播,建议严格遵守勤洗手和呼吸卫生规程。虽然这些措施涉及私人努力,但它们在提供集体社区利益的同时也带来了健康收益,因此可能是由利他主义和互惠等亲社会动机驱动的。利用2020年4月至5月在印度各地收集的934名受访者的数据,我们评估了感知社区合规的变化是否可以预测个人合规行为的变化。我们观察到两者之间具有统计学意义的正相关关系,即使在考虑到可观察到的和忽略的变量偏差后,我们也可以从一个合理的因果角度来看待结果。此外,我们发现随后的封锁对个人合规性产生了不利影响,尽管更高的社区合规性似乎抵消了这种损失。我们还发现,对社区的积极看法对已有合并症的人尤其有效。我们的研究结果强调,需要采取涉及当地行为者和社区机构的多层次行为干预措施,以在大流行期间维持私营部门的合规。我们建议这些干预措施需要特别针对患有慢性病的个人,并在公共信息中强调社区行为实践。JEL代码:I12, I18, I19, I31
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引用次数: 2
Demystifying Blue Box Support to Agriculture Under the WTO: Implications for Developing Countries 揭秘WTO下对农业的蓝箱支持:对发展中国家的启示
Pub Date : 2020-09-14 DOI: 10.1177/13915614211035852
S. Sharma, Adeet Dobhal, Surabhi Agrawal, A. Das
Developing members at the WTO face a shrinkage in policy space for supporting their agricultural sector due to the limited room available under the provisions of the Agreement on Agriculture (AoA). Contrastingly, most developed members can provide high levels of product-specific support without breaching their commitments on account of their support entitlements. For some of these members, the so-called ‘Blue Box’ under the AoA, plays a pivotal role in expanding the policy space with respect to domestic support to agricultural products. Though a lot of scholarship has discussed and examined other support provisions under the AoA, the ‘Blue Box’ remains relatively shrouded in mystery. Testimony to this is the fact that although the Blue Box has found use amongst developed members, no developing member, except for China in 2016, has ever used the Blue Box to support their producers. Given the impasse in the Doha Round of negotiations and limited flexibilities available under the AoA, this paper examines the feasibility and compatibility Blue Box measures with developing members’ socio-economic situation. Findings of this paper bring to fore the variations in member practice and the operational flexibilities available in implementing Blue Box programmes to support agriculture. JEL: F13, F14, F17, Q17
由于《农业协定》(AoA)规定的可用空间有限,世贸组织的发展中成员在支持其农业部门方面面临政策空间的缩减。相比之下,大多数发达成员可以提供高水平的特定产品支持,而不会违反其支持权利的承诺。对其中一些成员来说,AoA下所谓的“蓝盒子”在扩大国内农产品支持的政策空间方面发挥着关键作用。尽管许多学者已经讨论和研究了AoA下的其他支持条款,但“蓝盒子”仍然相对神秘。事实证明了这一点,尽管“蓝盒子”在发达成员中得到了使用,但除了2016年的中国之外,没有一个发展中成员使用过“蓝盒子”来支持他们的生产商。鉴于多哈回合谈判的僵局和AoA下有限的灵活性,本文考察了蓝盒措施与发展中成员社会经济状况的可行性和兼容性。本文的研究结果突出了成员实践的差异和实施蓝盒计划以支持农业的操作灵活性。Jel: f13, f14, f17, q17
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引用次数: 4
Financial Inclusion in India: Does Distance Matter? 印度的普惠金融:距离重要吗?
Pub Date : 2020-09-01 DOI: 10.1177/1391561420961649
Saibal Ghosh
Employing a novel district-level survey data for India, the study investigates the impact of distance on financial inclusion. Using advanced econometric techniques, the findings indicate that distance primarily dampens the use of bank accounts as compared with access. These results are robust irrespective of whether distance is measured in terms of the time taken to reach the banking infrastructure or physical distance. These results are robust to a wide battery of robustness checks. The analysis suggests the need for policy strategies that can address the tyranny of distance towards achieving the financial inclusion goal.
该研究采用了一种新颖的印度地区调查数据,调查了距离对普惠金融的影响。使用先进的计量经济学技术,研究结果表明,与获取相比,距离主要抑制了银行账户的使用。无论以到达银行基础设施所需的时间还是物理距离来衡量距离,这些结果都是可靠的。这些结果对于大量的稳健性检查是稳健的。分析表明,在实现普惠金融目标的过程中,需要制定能够解决距离暴政的政策战略。
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引用次数: 4
What Drive Trade Costs? South Asia and Beyond 是什么驱动了贸易成本?南亚及其他地区
Pub Date : 2020-09-01 DOI: 10.1177/1391561420968543
M. Kumari, Nalin Bharti
Higher trade costs in developing countries have received enormous attention during the recent past. In this context, it is imperative to revisit the factors contributing to such higher trade costs. This article attempts to explore the major determinants of trade costs conceptually and empirically. Further, the study endeavours to solve the puzzle of higher trade costs in the South Asian perspective. Using panel data of 93 countries from 2007 to 2015, the study tends to uncover major determinants of trade costs between South Asian countries and their two proximate regional blocks, namely Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) and Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). In estimating the model, the study prefers to use fixed-effect estimation technique, owing to the results of statistical tests carried out to choose the most appropriate model for the estimation. The findings of the study reveal that trade facilitation, political corruption and financial development affect intra-regional trade costs of South Asia significantly. Trade facilitation influences trade costs between South Asia and ASEAN. Moreover, trade facilitation and financial development affect trade costs between South Asia and APEC. The diagnoses of South Asian intra and inter-regional trade costs can push forward ongoing efforts at unlocking the potential of regional integration as well as global integration of the region.
发展中国家较高的贸易成本最近受到了极大的关注。在这方面,必须重新审视导致这种较高贸易成本的因素。本文试图从概念上和实证上探讨贸易成本的主要决定因素。此外,本研究试图从南亚的角度解决较高贸易成本的难题。利用2007年至2015年93个国家的面板数据,该研究倾向于揭示南亚国家及其两个邻近区域集团,即亚太经合组织(APEC)和东南亚国家联盟(ASEAN)之间贸易成本的主要决定因素。在对模型进行估计时,本研究倾向于采用固定效应估计技术,根据所进行的统计检验结果选择最合适的模型进行估计。研究结果表明,贸易便利化、政治腐败和金融发展对南亚区域内贸易成本影响显著。贸易便利化影响南亚与东盟之间的贸易成本。此外,贸易便利化和金融发展影响南亚与APEC之间的贸易成本。对南亚区域内和区域间贸易成本的诊断可以推动正在进行的释放区域一体化潜力的努力以及该地区的全球一体化。
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引用次数: 2
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South Asia Economic Journal
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