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Earned Income Tax Credit and Heterogenous Agent Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model 劳动所得税抵免与异质主体动态随机一般均衡模型
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.22812/JETEM.2021.32.1.004
Jong-suk Han, Sun-Bin Kim, Chang, Yongsung
As the Earned Income Tax Credit(EITC) massively expanded in 2019, 20% of total households benefit from the credit. Due to this large reform, we expect that any future reform will also largely affect the aggregate economy; thus, the heterogeneous agent life cycle dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (HA-LC-DSGE) model will be widely used in future research. This paper reviews the EITC reforms in Korea since the first implementation and surveys the previous studies, examining the labor supply effects. We address why the HA-LC-DSGE model is necessary to examine the current EITC system in Korea. Then, we provide an example of the HA-LC-DSGE model with a policy simulation of the EITC expansion and explain the model's salient ingredients to understand the results.
随着2019年劳动所得税抵免(EITC)的大幅扩大,20%的家庭受益于该抵免。由于这次大的改革,我们预计未来的任何改革也将在很大程度上影响经济总量;因此,异质agent生命周期动态随机一般均衡(HA-LC-DSGE)模型将在未来的研究中得到广泛应用。本文回顾了韩国EITC改革实施以来的情况,并对以往的研究进行了回顾,考察了其对劳动力供给的影响。我们解释了为什么HA-LC-DSGE模型是必要的,以检查韩国目前的EITC系统。然后,我们提供了一个具有EITC扩展政策模拟的HA-LC-DSGE模型的示例,并解释了模型的突出成分,以理解结果。
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引用次数: 0
Impacts of Ambient Air Pollution on Health Risk in Korea: A Spatial Panel Model Assessment 韩国环境空气污染对健康风险的影响:空间面板模型评估
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.22812/JETEM.2021.32.1.001
Hyung Sun Yim, Seong‐Hoon Cho, Byeongseon Seo
This paper investigates the impact of air quality pollution on respiratory health risk in Korea. In particular, we consider transboundary effects of particulate matter (PM10) on the health risk of pneumonia by using the spatial panel model. PM10, generated by natural phenomena and anthropogenic activities, migrates to neighboring areas contributing to not only local but also ambient regional health risks. We employ the spatial panel model to explain the spillover effects of air pollution on the respiratory health risk. The panel data covers environmental, demographic and economic variables that are associated with pneumonia of 120 local districts in Korea during the period from 2010 to 2015. Empirical evidence based on non-spatial and spatial models commonly indicates that the impact of air pollution on pneumonia-related risk is significant. The spatial panel model assessment reveals improvement in explanation and evidences more significant effect of ambient air pollution on pneumonia related hospital visits. As such, evidences of spatial dependence and borderless impacts of air pollution on the health risk of pneumonia are found to be strong. We also investigate the spatial dynamics of the potential association between air pollution and respiratory diseases with respect to variations in wind direction by extending the conventional weight matrix specification. Empirical results imply that transboundary effects of PM10 on health risk are stronger for districts located downwind from Northwest districts than from other directions.
本文调查了韩国空气质量污染对呼吸健康风险的影响。特别地,我们使用空间面板模型考虑了颗粒物(PM10)对肺炎健康风险的跨界影响。由自然现象和人为活动产生的PM10迁移到邻近地区,不仅造成当地健康风险,而且造成环境区域健康风险。本文采用空间面板模型来解释空气污染对呼吸健康风险的溢出效应。该小组数据涵盖了2010年至2015年期间韩国120个地方区与肺炎相关的环境、人口、经济变量。基于非空间和空间模型的经验证据通常表明,空气污染对肺炎相关风险的影响是显著的。空间面板模型评价表明,环境空气污染对肺炎相关就诊的影响在解释和证据方面有所改善。因此,空气污染对肺炎健康风险的空间依赖性和无边界影响的证据很强。我们还通过扩展传统的权重矩阵规范,研究了空气污染和呼吸系统疾病之间与风向变化的潜在关联的空间动力学。实证结果表明,PM10对健康风险的跨界影响在西北下风地区强于其他方向。
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引用次数: 0
Macroeconomic Changes since 2000 and DSGE Models 2000年以来的宏观经济变化与DSGE模型
Pub Date : 2020-09-30 DOI: 10.22812/JETEM.2020.31.3.004
Tack Yun
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引用次数: 0
Natural Interest Rate, Potential GDP Growth Rate and Long-Term Monetary Policy Stance 自然利率、潜在GDP增长率与长期货币政策立场
Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.22812/JETEM.2020.31.2.003
Seonghoon Cho
The natural rate of interest is the real interest rate that would prevail when the macro economy is in its natural, long-term equilibrium at which the actual GDP growth rate equals its potential rate. The natural rate of interest should therefore comove with the long-term trend of the potential GDP growth. In addition, since monetary policy authority has a significant impact on real interest rates, the difference between real and natural interest rates can be the basis for determining the long-term policy stance for the real sector of the economy. This study estimates potential growth rates and natural interest rates in Korea and the United States based on the Holston et al. (2017) model with important adjustments. We use the real market interest rate faced by economic agents, which may be different from the traditional real rate computed using the policy rate. Also, GDP per capita is considered, which is theoretically more suitable when population growth is taken into account. The estimation results using these new measures and the associated adjustment in the model reveal that the estimated natural rate of interest captures the theoretical characteristics of the natural interest rate better than the estimate using standard real interest rate. In addition, since the 2000s, Korea's real rate was much lower than the estimated natural interest rate, suggesting that the long-term monetary policy stance in Korea might have been strongly accommodating.
自然利率是指宏观经济处于实际GDP增长率等于潜在增长率的自然长期均衡状态时的实际利率。因此,自然利率应与潜在GDP增长的长期趋势一致。此外,由于货币政策权威对实际利率有重大影响,因此实际利率与自然利率之间的差异可以作为确定实体经济部门长期政策立场的基础。本研究基于Holston et al.(2017)模型估算韩国和美国的潜在增长率和自然利率,并进行了重要调整。我们使用经济主体面临的实际市场利率,这可能与传统的使用政策利率计算的实际利率不同。此外,考虑人均GDP,这在理论上更适合考虑人口增长。使用这些新测度的估计结果和模型中的相关调整表明,估计的自然利率比使用标准实际利率的估计更能捕捉自然利率的理论特征。此外,自2000年代以来,韩国的实际利率远低于估计的自然利率,这表明韩国的长期货币政策立场可能是非常宽松的。
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引用次数: 0
Does Credit Supply Accelerate Business Cycle Changes in Korea?: Some New Evidence by Incorporating Regime Changes 信贷供应是否加速了韩国商业周期的变化?:纳入政权更迭的一些新证据
Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.22812/JETEM.2020.31.2.002
Sei WanKim, JinillKim, JungsooPark
This work empirically investigates how commercial banks' aggregate credit supply is associated with business cycle over different regimes of the Korean economy. Linear empirical models employed in most of previous studies are subject to a potential missapecification problem because it is well known that both real GDP and credit supply reveal different dynamic properties over different regimes. This work finds that credit supply has asymmetric effect on business cycle for expansion and contraction phases when the Smooth Transition Autoregressive Vector Error Correction Model (or STAR-VECM) is employed. Our empirical findings are as follows. Firstly, we find that credit supply has procyclical effect on real GDP in all phases. Secondly, the procyclical effects are significantly intensified especially in contractionary phases which indicates asymmetry of its effect. In sum, this result supports 'Credit Acceleration Hypothesis' of Bernanke et al. (1999). Lastly, we further find that real GDP has asymmetric effects on banks' credit supply with countercyclical effect on expansionary regimes.
本文实证研究了韩国不同经济体制下商业银行的总信贷供给与经济周期的关系。由于众所周知,实际GDP和信贷供应在不同制度下表现出不同的动态特性,因此,以往大多数研究中采用的线性经验模型都存在潜在的错定性问题。本研究发现,当采用平滑过渡自回归向量误差修正模型(STAR-VECM)时,信贷供给对经济周期在扩张和收缩阶段具有不对称的影响。我们的实证研究结果如下。首先,我们发现信贷供给对实际GDP在各个阶段都存在顺周期效应。其次,顺周期效应明显增强,特别是在收缩阶段,表明其效应的不对称性。总之,这一结果支持了伯南克等人(1999)的“信贷加速假说”。最后,我们进一步发现,实际GDP对银行信贷供给具有非对称效应,对扩张性制度具有逆周期效应。
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引用次数: 0
Brexit and Time Dependence and Asymmetry of Dollar-Euro and Pound-Euro Exchange Rates 英国脱欧与美元-欧元和英镑-欧元汇率的时间依赖性和不对称性
Pub Date : 2020-03-31 DOI: 10.22812/JETEM.2020.31.1.003
이재득
This paper analyzes the recent realized volatility and jump of US Dollar/Euro and UK Pound/Euro returns using the high frequency five minute with the nonparametric estimation during years 2010-2018 including year 2016 of UK's national vote of Brexit. The empirical results show that before Brexit vote in year 2016 the Bipower volatilities of US Dollar/Euro and UK Pound/Euro returns have the time dependence effects such as daily and monthly effects, but they do not have weekly effects. But, they have asymmetrical properties on real rate of returns. However, after Brexit vote in year 2016 Bipower volatilities of US Dollar/Euro and UK Pound/Euro returns have only daily effects, but they do not have weekly and monthly effects. Furthermore, they do not have asymmetrical properties on real rate of returns. Before Brexit vote in year 2016, the Bipower jumps of US Dollar/Euro returns were not affected by the previous jumps and they do not have asymmetrical properties. Before Brexit vote in year 2016, Bipower jumps of UK Pound/Euro returns were not affected by the previous rates of returns, but after Brexit vote, jumps of UK Pound/Euro returns were affected by the previous rates of returns. Jumps of UK Pound/Euro returns do not have asymmetrical effects of previous rates of returns and jumps.
本文分析了2010-2018年(包括2016年英国全国脱欧投票)期间,美元/欧元和英镑/欧元回报率最近实现的波动和跳跃,采用高频五分钟非参数估计。实证结果表明,在2016年英国脱欧投票前,美元/欧元和英镑/欧元收益率的二次方波动具有日效应和月效应等时间依赖效应,但不具有周效应。但是,它们在实际回报率上具有不对称性质。然而,在2016年英国脱欧投票后,美元/欧元和英镑/欧元回报率的二次方波动仅具有每日影响,但不具有每周和每月影响。此外,它们在实际回报率上不具有不对称性质。在2016年英国脱欧投票之前,美元/欧元回报率的二次方跳跃没有受到之前跳跃的影响,也不具有不对称性质。在2016年英国脱欧投票之前,英镑/欧元回报率的二次方跳跃不受先前回报率的影响,但在英国脱欧公投之后,英镑/欧洲回报率的跳跃受先前收益率的影响。英镑/欧元收益率的跳跃不会产生先前收益率和跳跃的不对称影响。
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引用次数: 0
Joint Recruitment of Public Institutions: Who Gains and Who Loses? 事业单位联合招聘:谁赢谁输?
Pub Date : 2020-03-31 DOI: 10.22812/JETEM.2020.31.1.002
Jin Park, Jaeok Park
Recently, the Korean government is promoting the joint recruitment of public institutions, in which public institutions performing a similar task set a common date of written tests for entry-level employment. In this study, we analyze the effects of this policy on job seekers and institutions. Using a game-theoretic model with two institutions and a continuum of job seekers, we obtain the following results. First, when job seekers’ preferences for the two institutions are identical and one institution is much preferred to the other one, the less preferred institution and job seekers suffer from joint recruitment because job opportunities at the less preferred institution are not fully utilized under joint recruitment. On the other hand, when each institution is preferred by a half of job seekers, joint recruitment improves the overall utility of job seekers by increasing the likelihood that job seekers enter their preferred institutions. If joint recruitment lowers the overall difficulty of getting a job, it benefits job seekers with low ability more than those with high ability. Based on these results, we evaluate the policy of joint recruitment and discuss policy alternatives.
最近,韩国政府正在推动公共机构的联合招聘,执行类似任务的公共机构为入门级就业设定了共同的笔试日期。在这项研究中,我们分析了这项政策对求职者和机构的影响。使用两个机构和一个求职者连续体的博弈论模型,我们得到了以下结果。首先,当求职者对两个机构的偏好相同,并且一个机构比另一个更受欢迎时,不太受欢迎的机构和求职者会受到联合招聘的影响,因为在联合招聘中,不太被欢迎的机构的工作机会没有得到充分利用。另一方面,当一半的求职者喜欢每个机构时,联合招聘通过增加求职者进入他们喜欢的机构的可能性来提高求职者的整体效用。如果联合招聘降低了求职的总体难度,那么低能力的求职者比高能力的求职人更受益。基于这些结果,我们评估了联合招聘政策,并讨论了替代政策。
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引用次数: 0
Estimation of Residential Electricity Demand in Korea Allowing for a Structural Break 考虑到结构性断裂的韩国居民用电需求估算
Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.22812/JETEM.2020.31.4.003
Seong Yeon Chang
This study examines the time series characteristics of residential electricity demand and its determinants in Korea and the short-run and long-run relationship among them. We employ unit root tests, cointegration, and error-correction models on annual time series for the period 1972--2019. The rapid development of Korea over this period provides clear evidence of the possibility of structural breaks. We find that residential electricity demand and its determinants are trend-stationary processes with a slope change, which implies that there is no need to invoke cointegration methods under the unit root assumption. We expect that the essential modeling strategy presented in this article will be widely applicable.
本文研究了韩国居民用电需求的时间序列特征及其决定因素,以及它们之间的短期和长期关系。我们对1972- 2019年的年度时间序列采用单位根检验、协整和误差校正模型。韩国在这一时期的快速发展为结构性断裂的可能性提供了明确的证据。我们发现居民用电需求及其决定因素是斜率变化的趋势平稳过程,这意味着在单位根假设下无需使用协整方法。我们期望本文中提出的基本建模策略将得到广泛应用。
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引用次数: 0
Recent Development of Closed-form Approximate (Log-)Transition Probability Density Functions of Diffusion Processes 扩散过程的闭型近似(Log-)转移概率密度函数的新进展
Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.22812/JETEM.2020.31.1.004
S. Choi
Transition probability density function (TPDF) or log-TPDF of a diffusion is quite useful in many ways. For example, it can be employed not only to estimate a diffusion by the maximum likelihood estimation but also to simulate data from a diffusion or to price an asset when the underlying process follows a diffusion. However, unfortunately, the true TPDF of a diffusion is unknown with a few exceptions in general. Starting from Ait-Sahalia (2002)'s pioneering work on approximate but explicit TPDF of a univariate time-homogeneous diffusion to Choi (2019a)'s recent work on closed-form approximate TPDF of a multivariate time-inhomogeneous jump diffusion, several researchers have subsequently established the way to approximate the TPDFs or log-TPDFs of more general diffusion models. This article explains how people have resolved problems to generalize the method from Ait-Sahalia(2002)'s paper to Choi(2013, 2015)'s multivariate time-inhomogeneous diffusions. Due to space constraints, explanations of detailed theories or assumptions for their proof are reduced to the minimum and we show important results, with tacit facts not described in the original papers. In addition, we also introduce papers derived from and related to those key studies.
扩散的转移概率密度函数(TPDF)或对数-TPDF在许多方面都很有用。例如,它不仅可以用来通过最大似然估计来估计扩散,还可以用来模拟扩散的数据,或者在基础过程遵循扩散时为资产定价。然而,不幸的是,除了少数例外,扩散的真正TPDF通常是未知的。从Ait-Sahalia(2002)对单变量时间齐次扩散的近似但显式TPDF的开创性工作开始,到Choi (2019a)最近对多变量时间非齐次跳跃扩散的封闭形式近似TPDF的工作,几位研究人员随后建立了近似更一般扩散模型的TPDF或log-TPDF的方法。本文解释了人们如何解决问题,将Ait-Sahalia(2002)的论文方法推广到Choi(2013, 2015)的多元时间非齐次扩散。由于篇幅限制,对理论或假设证明的详细解释被减少到最低限度,我们展示了重要的结果,原始论文中没有描述的隐性事实。此外,我们还介绍了这些重点研究的相关论文。
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引用次数: 0
Equilibrium in Constrained Financial Markets 约束金融市场中的均衡
Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.22812/JETEM.2020.31.4.001
Won Dong Chul, Hahn Guangsug
Redundant assets give rise to peculiar portfolios, called `link portfolios,' under portfolio constraints. Link portfolios are jointly spanned by constrained null-income portfolios and form a linear subspace. The paper provides a general methodology for showing the existence of equilibrium under portfolio constraints by building two theoretical pillars to deal with link portfolios. The two pillars consist of the fundamental theorem of portfolio decomposition and the allocational equivalence between the original economy and the artificial economy built from projecting away link portfolios from the portfolio constraints. Investigating the existence of equilibrium in constrained financial markets boils down to finding a sufficient condition for the fundamental theorem of portfolio constraints to hold. The sufficient condition of the paper is general enough to encompass other sufficient conditions of the literature.
在投资组合约束下,冗余资产会产生特殊的投资组合,称为“链接投资组合”。链接组合由约束的零收益组合共同张成,形成线性子空间。本文通过建立两个理论支柱来处理链接投资组合,提供了一种证明投资组合约束下均衡存在的一般方法。这两大支柱包括投资组合分解的基本定理和原始经济与人工经济之间的配置等价,这些配置等价是通过将链接投资组合从投资组合约束中投影出来而建立起来的。研究受约束金融市场中均衡的存在性,归根结底就是寻找投资组合约束基本定理成立的充分条件。论文的充分条件是一般足以涵盖文献的其他充分条件。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Economic Theory and Econometrics
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