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Empirical Dynamics of Regional Aged Dependency Ratio in South Korea 韩国地区老年抚养比的实证动态
Pub Date : 2013-06-01 DOI: 10.22812/JETEM.2013.24.2.005
Hyoungjong Kim, Yitaek Park, Hun-chang Lee
This paper deals with the changes of aged dependency ratio across the 211 administrative districtions of South Korea between 1995 to 2011. The results show the dynamics of empirical distribution and Theil-L inequality indices for aged dependency ratio. The paper also analyzes the cause of aging inequality among regions. We find that the increase of aging inequality in regional level was mainly due to population mobility before 2005. However, the regional aging inequality is decreasing recently.
本文研究了1995 - 2011年间韩国211个行政区域的老年抚养比变化。结果显示了老年抚养比的经验分布和Theil-L不等式指数的动态变化。本文还分析了地区间老龄化不平等的原因。研究发现,2005年以前,人口流动是导致区域老龄化不平等加剧的主要原因。然而,近年来区域老龄化不平等正在缩小。
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引用次数: 0
Liquidity Constraints and Business Cycles 流动性约束与商业周期
Pub Date : 2013-01-01 DOI: 10.22812/JETEM.2013.24.3.002
Won jun Nah
This paper studies quantitative properties of the models of Kiyotaki and Moore (2001, 2008, 2012) which investigate propagation mechanism through which asset market liquidity affects real economy. The distinct analytical focus in this paper is on the effects of redistribution of wealth between agents due to investment opportunities. Under binding liquidity constraints faced by investors, the impacts of liquidity crunch are propagated to real economy via investment shrinkage. Numerical analyses reveal that the effects of liquidity shocks are amplified when the redistribution of wealth are more prominent. However, liquidity shocks in the secondary market, i.e., in the resaleability of assets, do not seem to be quantitatively significant driving forces of business cycles, at least compared to the ones in the primary market. This study confirmed the negatively correlated responses to liquidity shocks between investment and asset prices, and between investment and consumption, which are already pointed out in the literature. More importantly, this study newly found that liquidity premium in the model positively responded not only to liquidity crunch but also to positive productivity shocks. This pro-cyclicality of liquidity premium needs careful considerations since it can be another arguable defect of the model.
本文研究了Kiyotaki和Moore(2001, 2008, 2012)研究资产市场流动性影响实体经济的传播机制的模型的定量性质。本文独特的分析重点是由于投资机会导致的代理人之间财富再分配的影响。在投资者所面临的约束性流动性约束下,流动性紧缩的影响通过投资收缩传导至实体经济。数值分析表明,当财富再分配更加突出时,流动性冲击的影响会被放大。然而,二级市场的流动性冲击,即资产的可转售性,似乎不是商业周期在数量上的重要驱动力,至少与一级市场相比是如此。本研究证实了投资与资产价格之间,以及投资与消费之间对流动性冲击的负相关反应,这在文献中已经指出。更重要的是,本研究新发现模型中的流动性溢价不仅对流动性紧缩有正向响应,而且对正向生产率冲击也有正向响应。这种流动性溢价的顺周期性需要仔细考虑,因为它可能是该模型的另一个有争议的缺陷。
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引用次数: 1
Analyzing Macroeconomic Effects of Government Debt Using Dynamic General Equilibrium Model 用动态一般均衡模型分析政府债务的宏观经济效应
Pub Date : 2013-01-01 DOI: 10.22812/JETEM.2013.24.4.003
Sunghyun Kim, Soyoung Kim
This paper uses a dynamic general equilibrium model with government sector and analyzes short-run and long-run macroeconomic effects of government debt caused by either increases in government spending or decreases in various tax rates. The simulation results suggest several channels that government debt can negatively affect the economy: First, liquidity premium caused by an increase in government debt increases interest rate and decreases investment, and therefore lowers output and welfare in the long run. This is the most significant negative channel in this model. Second, when government spending builds up public capital, an increase in government debt temporarily crowds out private sector capital, which reduces output and welfare in the short run. Third, when government spending affects neither public sector capital nor household utility, an increase in government debt reduces consumption and increases labor input, thereby reducing social welfare. In addition, if the increase in government debt is caused by a decrease in tax rates, positive effects can dominate.
本文采用一个包含政府部门的动态一般均衡模型,分析了政府支出增加和各种税率降低对政府债务的短期和长期宏观经济效应。模拟结果表明,政府债务对经济的负面影响有几个渠道:首先,政府债务增加导致的流动性溢价提高了利率,减少了投资,从而长期降低了产出和福利。这是这个模型中最重要的负通道。其次,当政府支出积累公共资本时,政府债务的增加会暂时挤出私人部门资本,从而在短期内减少产出和福利。第三,当政府支出既不影响公共部门资本,也不影响家庭效用时,政府债务的增加减少了消费,增加了劳动投入,从而降低了社会福利。此外,如果政府债务的增加是由税率下降引起的,那么积极影响可能占主导地位。
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引用次数: 0
경기변동과청년실업:실직구직의 경기변동상 특성분석 经济变动与青年失业:失业求职的经济变动特性分析
Pub Date : 2012-12-31 DOI: 10.22812/JETEM.2012.23.4.003
남재량, 이철인
청년실업의 경기변동시 특징에 대한 기초자료를 제공하기 위해 이들의 실직구직활동의 경기변동상 특성을 분석·보고한다. 기존의 경기변동문헌에서와 달리 구직확률뿐만 아니라 실직확률의 경기변동시 움직임이 청년실업률을 결정하고 있음을 우리나라의 월별 실업자료를 이용하여 확인하였다. 전반적으로 외환위기 이후 실직확률 증가로 직업의 안정성이 저하된 것은 청년노동력에도...
为了提供青年失业经济变动时特征的基础资料,对他们失业求职活动的经济变动特性进行分析和报告。与现有的经济变动文献不同,利用我国每个月的失业资料确认了不仅是求职概率,失业概率的经济变动时的动向也决定着青年失业率。从整体上看,金融危机之后失业概率的增加导致了职业稳定性的下降…
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引用次数: 0
Business Cycle and Asset Prices: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis with Agency Costs and Habit Formation 商业周期与资产价格:具有代理成本和习惯形成的可计算一般均衡分析
Pub Date : 2010-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1009508
Kunhong Kim, Young-Sik Kim
For the purpose of explaining both business cycles and asset returns, we examine a real business cycle (RBC) model with habit-augmented preferences and endogenous costs of adjusting the capital stock. Following the agencycost model of Carlstrom and Fuerst (1997), capital adjustment costs are affected by the level of entrepreneur’s net worth such that an increase in net worth (following a positive productivity shock) lowers agency costs associated with external …nancing, and hence makes it easier to expand the capital stock. Along with the restricted labor supply, the model resolves the asset pricing puzzles of the consumption-based model in the sense that the implied stochastic discount factor (or pricing kernel) reaches the Hansen-Jagannathan (1991)
为了解释商业周期和资产回报,我们研究了一个具有习惯增强偏好和调整资本存量内生成本的真实商业周期(RBC)模型。根据Carlstrom和Fuerst(1997)的代理成本模型,资本调整成本受到企业家净资产水平的影响,因此净资产的增加(在生产率正冲击之后)会降低与外部融资相关的代理成本,从而使资本存量的扩张更容易。随着劳动力供给的限制,该模型在隐含随机贴现因子(或定价核)达到Hansen-Jagannathan(1991)的意义上解决了基于消费模型的资产定价难题。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
Journal of Economic Theory and Econometrics
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