Economics of Transition and Institutional Change最新文献

I present reduced-form and structural evidence that the reorganization of the Russian economy in the post-transitional period increased the demand on law and business graduates. This demand shock provides a novel unified explanation of the Russian wage structure for 1985–2015. I then show that this shock is a common feature of all transitional economies, and it contributed to the transformational recession. The demand behaviour is identified with a new skill-biased technical change model of demand for skills with three production inputs (high school graduates and bachelor-level educations with two majors), showing that a technology shift that favours a particular skill might emerge within the skilled group rather than between skilled and unskilled. This is relevant because similar shifts (e.g., data scientists vs. liberal arts) emerge today in the frontier economies that adopt new general-purpose technologies (e.g., machine learning). Thus, this paper informs policymakers today on tools to counteract a potential drop in economic equality and performance that result from this adoption. Lastly, because of similarities between the mechanics of the transition and the 2022 sanctions to discourage Russia's war effort, my results highlight the importance of additional sanctions against the education system to prevent the regime's structural adaptation and preservation.

Dr. Mahathir bin Mohamad is often credited with Malaysia's dramatic economic success post-1980. It is well known that the Mahathir regime installed centralized power in the Office of the Prime Minister (PM) and greatly extended state capacity through a far-reaching clientelist system. Prima Facie, the Malaysian experience appears to validate power centralization and state capacity as complementary to economic development. Though these changes did make Malaysia more susceptible to corruption, dramatically exhibited in 2015 with the 1MDB 5 billion dollar scandal, it has been argued that the clientelist political structure installed in Malaysia generally manages corruption at tolerable levels in order to provide the state the capacity needed to implement controls for economic development that began in the 1980s. While Malaysia experienced impressive economic growth during the Mahathir administration, our test using the Synthetic Control Method finds that GDP per capita fell well below what would have been expected under the governing structures in place in the 1970s, before Mahathir took office—a loss of approximately $4000 per capita below its potential. This study provides evidence of powerful negative economic consequences attributable to greater power centralization and enhanced state capacity inaugurated under Mahathir.

This paper focuses on the Czech economic transition and aims to identify the determinants of unusually high and long-lasting public support for market reforms. The study is based on a unique combination of statistical analysis of survey data and oral history (interviews with reformers, managers etc.), which has enabled us to depict the views of the general public as well as of many people involved in decision-making processes on both macro and micro levels. These findings allow us to propose recommendations on how to gain and maintain public support for economic reforms. Above all, reformers must utilize the period of euphoria and communicate the individual steps of reform with the public.

Traditional fiscal federalism theory holds that decentralization may improve the provision of public goods and services. However, the social welfare field with strong externalities may face different incentives and behavioural logics. This paper provides novel empirical evidence for the causal relationship between decentralization and local pollution. In this paper, we focussed on China's widely spread decentralization reform, which substantially expanded the economic and social management autonomy of county governments. Using the difference-in-differences method and a panel dataset from 1998 to 2007, we found that the reform would compel affected counties to loosen environmental regulation, adopt financial and fiscal policies that would actually support heavy-pollution industries' rapid economic growth. Overall, the reform led to a significant increase in local pollution, thus worsening the overall environmental quality. Moreover, cost-benefit analysis indicated that the reforms generated net gains in social welfare, but the substantial environmental costs cannot be ignored.

We empirically study the role of assets held by women in the creation of household wealth using data from rural India. We design a streamlined model of intrahousehold project funding where moral hazard frictions between spouses and women's asset control are the main ingredients. As predicted by the model, the data show that household asset accumulation depends on women's asset control in a non-monotonic way. Results indicate no presence of multiple equilibrium poverty traps, but do show that exogenous negative shocks will trigger assets aggregation within households where both spouses are present. This resilience mechanism is, however, not found in female headed household as these households have a monotonic relationship between women's wealth control and asset creation. We thus argue that policies to support women's empowerment need to distinguish women based on their individual wealth levels and headship status to enhance household well-being in remote Indian communities.

Does coethnicity with the President affect public infrastructure provision in South Africa? Using municipal-level data for 52 district municipalities from 1996 to 2016, we find that municipalities coethnic with the President are associated with higher water infrastructure provision relative to non-coethnic municipalities. Taking into account various political considerations, results show that ethnic favouritism occurs due to ethnic altruism. Our findings remain robust to different specifications of coethnicity thresholds and are applicable to electricity infrastructure provision. Results suggest that in order to minimise ethnic favouritism, politically independent institutions should oversee the allocation of funding and provision of infrastructure.

This study evaluates the effect of a compulsory military service reform conducted in 2007–2008 on the demand for higher education in Russia. The reform shortened the conscription term (from two years to one year), abolished several deferments, and significantly reduced the number of military departments in Russian universities, which provided an opportunity to avoid being conscripted as a private. The difference between the Russian reform and the armed forces reforms carried out in several European countries in the 1990s–2000s lies in the fact that compulsory military service was not abolished completely. Based on data compiled from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey, we find that the men affected by the reform are, in general, approximately 12% less likely to graduate from higher education. The effect is more pronounced for men from cities and more advantaged family backgrounds. Army veterans exhibit steadily lower demand for higher education irrespective the reform.

The Arab Spring (AS) event characterized the recent history of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. It brought about various economic, political, and social conditions and transformations that affected women's well-being and their status and participation in the labour market. Accordingly, this paper examines the short-run and the long-run effects of the AS on female labour force participation (FLFP) rates in the MENA region. The empirical analysis is implemented through the generalized method of moments (GMM) system estimator for dynamic panel models, using the basic (one-step) and the two-step approaches over different empirical specifications. The benchmark empirical results show that the AS is associated with moderate average increases in FLFP rates in the MENA region. The empirical analysis subsequently emphasizes significant variations and distinct patterns in the AS effects on FLFP rates across MENA countries, and it ties these findings to the AS-related economic, political and social circumstances in these countries.

This study examines whether convergence in institutional quality distinguished by economic and political dimensions of institutions has occurred across countries. The study uses data from 81 countries over the period of 1985 to 2018. The study tests the convergence hypothesis by using three different measures of institutional quality capturing political and economic dimensions of institutions. The empirical results show that convergence in economic institutional quality has occurred and most countries with weak economic institutions have a higher rate of change compared with countries with strong economic institutions. In contrast, for political institutions, the convergence process is short-lived.

After the Doi Moi reforms, Vietnam pursued fiscal decentralization to strengthen the autonomy and governance capacity of local governments. While several empirical studies analysed the impact of fiscal decentralization on the economic growth of Vietnamese provinces, very few studies examined its impact on their social development. This study represents an initial effort to fill this gap. The empirical analysis applied the panel corrected standard errors (PCSE) estimation and stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) to an updated panel data of 63 Vietnamese provinces, spanning the period from 2011 to 2019. The results indicate a positive impact of fiscal decentralization on both economic and social development as well as efficiency of resource utilization for development targets. However, realizing the full potential of fiscal decentralization requires the fulfilment of certain conditions.