This article makes three basic contributions: (a) review an already existing measure of ‘inclusive growth’ derived from a measure of inclusiveness (an increase which is assumed to be associated with inclusive growth) and show that this is one among a class of an infinite number of possible measures; (b) identify two drawbacks associated with the class of measures of ‘inclusive growth’ mentioned in (a) and come up with a measure of inclusive growth which is not associated with one of these drawbacks and (c) propound a measure of inclusiveness of growth which allows the researcher the room to partition an income-ordered population into blocks so that he/she can concentrate on inter-block inequality in growth rates of per capita income and neglect intra-block inequality (note that the formulation of this measure allows the researcher to partition the population into blocks in any way which he/she wants to) in growth rates of individual incomes. JEL Classification: D30, D31
{"title":"A Note on Measuring Inclusive Growth and the Inclusiveness of Growth","authors":"S. Mitra","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2984408","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2984408","url":null,"abstract":"This article makes three basic contributions: (a) review an already existing measure of ‘inclusive growth’ derived from a measure of inclusiveness (an increase which is assumed to be associated with inclusive growth) and show that this is one among a class of an infinite number of possible measures; (b) identify two drawbacks associated with the class of measures of ‘inclusive growth’ mentioned in (a) and come up with a measure of inclusive growth which is not associated with one of these drawbacks and (c) propound a measure of inclusiveness of growth which allows the researcher the room to partition an income-ordered population into blocks so that he/she can concentrate on inter-block inequality in growth rates of per capita income and neglect intra-block inequality (note that the formulation of this measure allows the researcher to partition the population into blocks in any way which he/she wants to) in growth rates of individual incomes. JEL Classification: D30, D31","PeriodicalId":40308,"journal":{"name":"South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance","volume":"6 1","pages":"194 - 208"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2017-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.2139/ssrn.2984408","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42530469","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-06-01DOI: 10.1177/2277978717695150
Champa Bati Dutta, M. Z. Haider, D. K. Das
This article investigates the causal relationship among foreign direct investment, domestic investment, trade openness and economic growth in Bangladesh over the period 1976–2014. Unit root tests, cointegration methods and Granger causality tests in Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) framework are used to investigate the relationships. The results of Granger causality test based on a stable VECM support a unidirectional causality running from foreign direct investment to growth, domestic investment to trade openness, growth to trade openness and bidirectional causality between domestic investment and growth and foreign direct investment and domestic investment. The results support the investment complementarities in Bangladesh. JEL Classification: E22, F1, O40
{"title":"Dynamics of Economic Growth, Investment and Trade Openness: Evidence from Bangladesh","authors":"Champa Bati Dutta, M. Z. Haider, D. K. Das","doi":"10.1177/2277978717695150","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/2277978717695150","url":null,"abstract":"This article investigates the causal relationship among foreign direct investment, domestic investment, trade openness and economic growth in Bangladesh over the period 1976–2014. Unit root tests, cointegration methods and Granger causality tests in Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) framework are used to investigate the relationships. The results of Granger causality test based on a stable VECM support a unidirectional causality running from foreign direct investment to growth, domestic investment to trade openness, growth to trade openness and bidirectional causality between domestic investment and growth and foreign direct investment and domestic investment. The results support the investment complementarities in Bangladesh. JEL Classification: E22, F1, O40","PeriodicalId":40308,"journal":{"name":"South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance","volume":"6 1","pages":"104 - 82"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2017-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1177/2277978717695150","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43979380","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-06-01DOI: 10.1177/2277978717695157
Shesadri Banerjee
How does volatility of inflation differ across the economies? Addressing this research question, the article undertakes an empirical exercise on monthly consumer price inflation over the sample period of M01, 1958 to M02, 2016 for 41 countries using the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) (1, 1) model. The country-level analysis shows a modest difference of conditional volatility of inflation between the advanced and developing economies. However, this difference increases after controlling the country-specific traits by fixed effect panel estimation using generalized methods of moments on the estimated GARCH series. It is observed that, in the long run, the conditional variability of inflation is nearly three and half times greater in developing countries compared to advanced countries. JEL Classification: E10, E30, E31
{"title":"Empirical Regularities of Inflation Volatility: Evidence from Advanced and Developing Countries","authors":"Shesadri Banerjee","doi":"10.1177/2277978717695157","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/2277978717695157","url":null,"abstract":"How does volatility of inflation differ across the economies? Addressing this research question, the article undertakes an empirical exercise on monthly consumer price inflation over the sample period of M01, 1958 to M02, 2016 for 41 countries using the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) (1, 1) model. The country-level analysis shows a modest difference of conditional volatility of inflation between the advanced and developing economies. However, this difference increases after controlling the country-specific traits by fixed effect panel estimation using generalized methods of moments on the estimated GARCH series. It is observed that, in the long run, the conditional variability of inflation is nearly three and half times greater in developing countries compared to advanced countries. JEL Classification: E10, E30, E31","PeriodicalId":40308,"journal":{"name":"South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance","volume":"6 1","pages":"133 - 156"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2017-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1177/2277978717695157","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42779620","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-06-01DOI: 10.1177/2277978717695154
Jaganath Behera, A. Mishra
This article investigates the existence of a threshold level of inflation and how any such level affects the growth of Indian economy. The article also seeks to examine the dynamic short-run and long-run relationship between inflation and economic growth in India. By employing spline regression method to estimate the threshold level of inflation and the long-run and short-run relationships, the results show a statistically significant structural break in the relationship between inflation and economic growth at 4 per cent. The study suggests that if inflation exceeds the threshold point, that is, 4 per cent, it will negatively affect economic growth. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model bound testing cointegration suggests that there are two cointegration vectors when gross domestic product and rate of interest are considered as the dependent variables. This result confirms the existence of the long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth, inflation, exchange rate and rate of interest. From the long-run analysis, the study found that inflation is positively related to economic growth, whereas the other variables are not significant. JEL Classification: E4, E6
{"title":"The Recent Inflation Crisis and Long-run Economic Growth in India: An Empirical Survey of Threshold Level of Inflation","authors":"Jaganath Behera, A. Mishra","doi":"10.1177/2277978717695154","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/2277978717695154","url":null,"abstract":"This article investigates the existence of a threshold level of inflation and how any such level affects the growth of Indian economy. The article also seeks to examine the dynamic short-run and long-run relationship between inflation and economic growth in India. By employing spline regression method to estimate the threshold level of inflation and the long-run and short-run relationships, the results show a statistically significant structural break in the relationship between inflation and economic growth at 4 per cent. The study suggests that if inflation exceeds the threshold point, that is, 4 per cent, it will negatively affect economic growth. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model bound testing cointegration suggests that there are two cointegration vectors when gross domestic product and rate of interest are considered as the dependent variables. This result confirms the existence of the long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth, inflation, exchange rate and rate of interest. From the long-run analysis, the study found that inflation is positively related to economic growth, whereas the other variables are not significant. JEL Classification: E4, E6","PeriodicalId":40308,"journal":{"name":"South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance","volume":"6 1","pages":"105 - 132"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2017-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1177/2277978717695154","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47067580","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-06-01DOI: 10.1177/2277978717695152
S. Gnangnon
This article examines the relevance of export-upgrading strategy (export quality improvement and export diversification) in developing countries for the structural change in tax revenue (trade tax revenue versus domestic tax revenue). The empirical analysis suggests that the lower the degree of export upgrading (higher export concentration or low quality of export products) the higher the extent of structural change in tax revenue, that is, a tax transition reform. In the meantime, the effect of export upgrading on the extent of structural change in tax revenue appears to be conditioned on the degree of countries’ openness to international trade. JEL Classification: H1, F14, O1
{"title":"Export Upgrading and the Extent of Structural Change in Tax Revenue in Developing Countries","authors":"S. Gnangnon","doi":"10.1177/2277978717695152","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/2277978717695152","url":null,"abstract":"This article examines the relevance of export-upgrading strategy (export quality improvement and export diversification) in developing countries for the structural change in tax revenue (trade tax revenue versus domestic tax revenue). The empirical analysis suggests that the lower the degree of export upgrading (higher export concentration or low quality of export products) the higher the extent of structural change in tax revenue, that is, a tax transition reform. In the meantime, the effect of export upgrading on the extent of structural change in tax revenue appears to be conditioned on the degree of countries’ openness to international trade. JEL Classification: H1, F14, O1","PeriodicalId":40308,"journal":{"name":"South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance","volume":"6 1","pages":"27 - 58"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2017-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1177/2277978717695152","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45579937","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-06-01DOI: 10.1177/2277978717695155
Rudrani Bhattacharya, Abhijit Sen Gupta
Average food inflation in India during the period 2006–2013 was one of the highest among emerging market economies and nearly double the inflation witnessed in India during the previous decade. An often-cited hypothesis argues that the surge in food inflation during this period was driven by rising demand for high-value food products due to higher per capita income and diversification of Indian diets. In this article, we test the validity of this hypothesis by estimating the expenditure elasticity and then calculating the aggregate demand using data from household survey conducted by the National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO). Our results show that in recent years, estimated demand has exceeded supply of all major food products, barring fruits. Moreover, empirical estimates indicate that the demand–supply gap is an important driver of rise in food prices, along with other factors such as minimum support prices, global prices, fiscal deficit and agricultural wages. JEL Classification: E31, E37, Q11
{"title":"What Role Did Rising Demand Play in Driving Food Prices Up?","authors":"Rudrani Bhattacharya, Abhijit Sen Gupta","doi":"10.1177/2277978717695155","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/2277978717695155","url":null,"abstract":"Average food inflation in India during the period 2006–2013 was one of the highest among emerging market economies and nearly double the inflation witnessed in India during the previous decade. An often-cited hypothesis argues that the surge in food inflation during this period was driven by rising demand for high-value food products due to higher per capita income and diversification of Indian diets. In this article, we test the validity of this hypothesis by estimating the expenditure elasticity and then calculating the aggregate demand using data from household survey conducted by the National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO). Our results show that in recent years, estimated demand has exceeded supply of all major food products, barring fruits. Moreover, empirical estimates indicate that the demand–supply gap is an important driver of rise in food prices, along with other factors such as minimum support prices, global prices, fiscal deficit and agricultural wages. JEL Classification: E31, E37, Q11","PeriodicalId":40308,"journal":{"name":"South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance","volume":"6 1","pages":"59 - 81"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2017-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1177/2277978717695155","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48618214","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-12-01DOI: 10.1177/2277978716671051
Tilak Sanyal
The article considers the scope of Pareto improvement through an inequality-inducing income transfer in a society where multiple pure public goods are provided by voluntary contribution only from the rich individual. In contrast to the case of single public good, here we show that in presence of only one poor individual in the society such an income transfer can never be Pareto improving. JEL Classification: H41, D63, D31, H23
{"title":"Pareto Improving Redistribution in the Case of Private Provision of Multiple Pure Public Goods","authors":"Tilak Sanyal","doi":"10.1177/2277978716671051","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/2277978716671051","url":null,"abstract":"The article considers the scope of Pareto improvement through an inequality-inducing income transfer in a society where multiple pure public goods are provided by voluntary contribution only from the rich individual. In contrast to the case of single public good, here we show that in presence of only one poor individual in the society such an income transfer can never be Pareto improving. JEL Classification: H41, D63, D31, H23","PeriodicalId":40308,"journal":{"name":"South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance","volume":"5 1","pages":"220 - 230"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2016-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1177/2277978716671051","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"65465859","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-12-01DOI: 10.1177/2277978716670788
A. Das, Syeed Khan
Since the 1980s, financial liberalization in developing countries has been an important policy prescription of many international organizations including the World Bank (WB) and International Monetary Fund (IMF). It is argued that the liberalization of the financial sector would allocate productive resources in the most efficient way and increase economic growth. However, the relationship between financial liberalization and output is not clear in the existing empirical literature. Applying the cointegration and Granger causality tests within the vector error correction model (VECM) to a data set from 1974 to 2013, our results suggest that output per capita Granger causes financial development, and vice versa. Hence, we find the evidence of bidirectional causality between financial development and GDP in Bangladesh. These results will help policymakers design financial policies in Bangladesh and other developing countries, which face the dilemma of financial liberalization while maintaining a high and stable output growth. JEL Classification: E44, O40, C22
{"title":"Financial Development and Output: A Synthesis of Time Series Cointegration and Causality Tests for Bangladesh","authors":"A. Das, Syeed Khan","doi":"10.1177/2277978716670788","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/2277978716670788","url":null,"abstract":"Since the 1980s, financial liberalization in developing countries has been an important policy prescription of many international organizations including the World Bank (WB) and International Monetary Fund (IMF). It is argued that the liberalization of the financial sector would allocate productive resources in the most efficient way and increase economic growth. However, the relationship between financial liberalization and output is not clear in the existing empirical literature. Applying the cointegration and Granger causality tests within the vector error correction model (VECM) to a data set from 1974 to 2013, our results suggest that output per capita Granger causes financial development, and vice versa. Hence, we find the evidence of bidirectional causality between financial development and GDP in Bangladesh. These results will help policymakers design financial policies in Bangladesh and other developing countries, which face the dilemma of financial liberalization while maintaining a high and stable output growth. JEL Classification: E44, O40, C22","PeriodicalId":40308,"journal":{"name":"South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance","volume":"5 1","pages":"113 - 132"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2016-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1177/2277978716670788","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"65465935","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-12-01DOI: 10.1177/2277978716671042
Ratna Barua, Malabika Roy, Ajitava Raychaudhuri
The market structure, conducts and performance of the Indian banking sector have changed since the introduction of banking sector reforms. Slower economic growth, coupled with asset quality problems in recent years, has taken a toll on the overall health of the Indian banking sector. Higher statutory capital requirement under Basel III has posed another major challenge to the Indian banks. The purpose of the study is to examine the impact of structural changes and conduct of Indian commercial banks on their profitability in the paradigm of structure–conduct–performance (SCP) framework. Market concentration, bank-specific/macroeconomic variables have been considered as important determinants of the profitability. The regression results find a negative relationship between profitability and market concentration and reject SCP hypotheses. The study found that capitalization, credit risk, leverage and ownership structure are the most important determinants of the profitability of Indian banks. The study also found that financial crisis had no significant impact on the profitability of Indian banks. JEL Classification: C4, G21, G28, L19
{"title":"Structure, Conduct and Performance Analysis of Indian Commercial Banks","authors":"Ratna Barua, Malabika Roy, Ajitava Raychaudhuri","doi":"10.1177/2277978716671042","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/2277978716671042","url":null,"abstract":"The market structure, conducts and performance of the Indian banking sector have changed since the introduction of banking sector reforms. Slower economic growth, coupled with asset quality problems in recent years, has taken a toll on the overall health of the Indian banking sector. Higher statutory capital requirement under Basel III has posed another major challenge to the Indian banks. The purpose of the study is to examine the impact of structural changes and conduct of Indian commercial banks on their profitability in the paradigm of structure–conduct–performance (SCP) framework. Market concentration, bank-specific/macroeconomic variables have been considered as important determinants of the profitability. The regression results find a negative relationship between profitability and market concentration and reject SCP hypotheses. The study found that capitalization, credit risk, leverage and ownership structure are the most important determinants of the profitability of Indian banks. The study also found that financial crisis had no significant impact on the profitability of Indian banks. JEL Classification: C4, G21, G28, L19","PeriodicalId":40308,"journal":{"name":"South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance","volume":"5 1","pages":"157 - 185"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2016-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1177/2277978716671042","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"65466043","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-12-01DOI: 10.1177/2277978716671050
Saibal Ghosh
Employing data for 2001–2012, the article analyzes the factors impacting the wealth of Indian billionaires and the performance and innovative activity of firms which these billionaires represent. The analysis indicates that billionaires in rent-thick sectors have higher wealth levels, on average. As well, the evidence also supports lower wealth for self-made and entrepreneurial billionaires. The findings also reveal that self-interested actions by billionaires tend to raise agency costs, which, in turn, dampens profitability and firm value. Finally, there is evidence which suggests a tendency on the part of billionaires to block innovative activity. JEL Classification: D31, N35, P52
{"title":"Billionaire Wealth, Firm Performance and Financial Crisis: An Empirical Analysis for India","authors":"Saibal Ghosh","doi":"10.1177/2277978716671050","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/2277978716671050","url":null,"abstract":"Employing data for 2001–2012, the article analyzes the factors impacting the wealth of Indian billionaires and the performance and innovative activity of firms which these billionaires represent. The analysis indicates that billionaires in rent-thick sectors have higher wealth levels, on average. As well, the evidence also supports lower wealth for self-made and entrepreneurial billionaires. The findings also reveal that self-interested actions by billionaires tend to raise agency costs, which, in turn, dampens profitability and firm value. Finally, there is evidence which suggests a tendency on the part of billionaires to block innovative activity. JEL Classification: D31, N35, P52","PeriodicalId":40308,"journal":{"name":"South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance","volume":"5 1","pages":"133 - 156"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2016-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1177/2277978716671050","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"65465697","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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