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Have the Major U.S. Air Carriers Finally Turned the Corner? A Financial Condition Assessment 美国主要航空公司终于渡过难关了吗?财务状况评估
Pub Date : 2016-06-01 DOI: 10.5399/OSU/JTRF.55.2.4352
R. Gritta, Brian J. Adams
Rare prior to the deregulation of the airline industry, air carrier bankruptcies became rather endemic in the period 1982-2005. Since 1982, over 175 airlines have filed under the bankruptcy codes. This number includes eight of the carriers that were formerly referred to as “trunk carriers,” now known as “Majors.” Major carriers are defined as those with annual revenues exceeding $1.0 billion. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the recent performance of these carriers using a statistical model specifically designed to predict the likelihood of financial stress for airlines. The paper will also update past research in this important industry to demonstrate the very precarious nature of profitability. The major reasons for the improvement of the industry’s profitability will be briefly discussed. The analysis will show that the current financial condition of the industry has improved significantly due to increased concentration and the market domination of some carriers, very low fuel costs facing the carriers, and the record low interest rates resulting from the Federal Reserve’s easy monetary policy. the industry may still be fragile or vulnerable to changes in these input factors.
在航空业放松管制之前,航空公司破产很少见,但在1982年至2005年期间,航空公司破产变得相当普遍。自1982年以来,超过175家航空公司根据破产法提交了破产申请。这个数字包括八家以前被称为“干线航空公司”的航空公司,现在被称为“大型航空公司”。大型航空公司的定义是年收入超过10亿美元的航空公司。本文的目的是利用专门设计的统计模型来预测航空公司财务压力的可能性,分析这些航空公司最近的表现。本文还将更新过去在这一重要行业的研究,以证明盈利能力的不稳定性。本文将简要讨论行业盈利能力提高的主要原因。分析将显示,由于一些航空公司的集中度提高和市场主导地位,航空公司面临的燃料成本非常低,以及美联储宽松货币政策导致的创纪录的低利率,目前该行业的财务状况已显著改善。该行业可能仍然很脆弱,或容易受到这些投入因素变化的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring Sustainable Transportation Attitudes and Stages of Change Using Survey and Geospatial Data in New England Campus Commuters 利用调查和地理空间数据探索新英格兰校园通勤者的可持续交通态度和变化阶段
Pub Date : 2016-06-01 DOI: 10.5399/OSU/JTRF.55.2.4349
Tat S. Fu, N. Mundorf, Colleen A Redding, L. Brick, Andrea L. Paiva, J. Prochaska
This paper presents findings of a two-campus project designed to assess alternative/sustainable transportation (AT), which is defined as commuting via non-SOVs (single occupancy vehicles) such as transit, carpooling, walking, or biking. One of the objectives was to test the application of a well-known behavior change model, the Transtheoretical Model of Change (TTM), to transportation behaviors. Additionally, geospatial analysis and visualization were applied using the TTM measures. The survey results show that commuting distances, transit connectivity, and status (i.e., students, staff, and faculty) affected commute modes and stages of readiness to use AT. Another important finding was that the survey data for AT replicated TTM relationship predictions between constructs and stages of change.
本文介绍了一个两校区项目的研究结果,该项目旨在评估替代/可持续交通(AT),它被定义为通过非sov(单占用车辆)通勤,如公共交通、拼车、步行或骑自行车。其中一个目标是测试一个著名的行为改变模型——跨理论变化模型(Transtheoretical model of change, TTM)在交通运输行为中的应用。此外,地理空间分析和可视化应用了TTM措施。调查结果显示,通勤距离、交通连通性和状态(即学生、员工和教师)影响通勤模式和准备使用自动驾驶汽车的阶段。另一个重要的发现是,AT的调查数据复制了构造和变化阶段之间的TTM关系预测。
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引用次数: 4
The Multimodal Connectivity at Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) Stations and the Impact on Ridership 快速公交(BRT)站点的多模式连通性及其对乘客的影响
Pub Date : 2016-03-01 DOI: 10.5399/OSU/JTRF.55.1.4340
Mintesnot G. Woldeamanuel, Craig T. Olwert
A multimodality index (MI) is developed to evaluate the accessibility and convenience of transit use by investigating the connectivity of a Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) with other modes of travel. Better connected stations increase transit system ridership, resulting in environmental and social equity gains. The integration of the Orange Line BRT system in Los Angeles with other travel modes, including bicycles, pedestrians, regular buses, and private automobiles, was analyzed using field observations and LA Metro data to create a multimodality index (MI). While multimodal connectivity of the Orange Line BRT system varies across stations, a positive relationship exists between ridership and the MI, indicating that the MI is a reliable predictor of transit ridership and a useful tool for transit planning.
通过调查快速公交(BRT)与其他出行方式的连通性,建立了多模式指数(MI)来评价公交使用的可达性和便利性。连接更好的车站增加了交通系统的客流量,从而提高了环境和社会公平性。利用现场观察和洛杉矶地铁数据,分析了洛杉矶橙线BRT系统与其他交通方式(包括自行车、行人、普通公交车和私家车)的整合,并创建了一个多模式指数(MI)。虽然橙线BRT系统的多模式连通性因站而异,但客流量与MI之间存在正相关关系,这表明MI是公交客流量的可靠预测指标,也是公交规划的有用工具。
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引用次数: 1
The Impact of Driving Knowledge on Motor Vehicle Fatalities 驾驶知识对机动车死亡事故的影响
Pub Date : 2016-03-01 DOI: 10.5399/OSU/JTRF.55.1.4337
W. Simmons, Andrew M. Welki, T. J. Zlatoper
This paper analyzes the influence of driving knowledge on highway safety by estimating regression models on U.S. state-level data over six years (2005 through 2010). The models incorporate a representative set of motor vehicle fatality determinants. Driving knowledge?as measured by performance on the GMAC Insurance National Drivers Test?has a statistically significant lifesaving effect. Negatively related to the motor vehicle death rate and statistically significant are: real per capita income, precipitation, seat belt use, and a linear trend. Statistically significant positive associations with the rate are found for: the ratio of rural to urban driving, temperature, the percentage of young drivers, the percentage of old drivers, and alcohol consumption.
本文分析了驾驶知识对公路安全的影响,通过估计回归模型对美国州级数据超过六年(2005年至2010年)。这些模型包含了一组有代表性的机动车死亡决定因素。驾驶知识?通过GMAC保险国家驾驶员考试的表现来衡量?具有统计学上显著的救命效果。与机动车死亡率负相关且有统计学意义的有:实际人均收入、降水量、安全带使用情况,并呈线性趋势。统计上发现,与比率呈正相关的因素有:农村与城市驾驶的比例、温度、年轻司机的比例、老年司机的比例和酒精消费。
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引用次数: 3
Airline Fuel Hedging: Do Hedge Horizon and Contract Maturity Matter? 航空燃油套期保值:套期期限和合约到期重要吗?
Pub Date : 2016-03-01 DOI: 10.5399/OSU/JTRF.55.1.4325
Siew Hoon Lim, Peter A. Turner
Large and unpredictable swings in fuel prices create financial uncertainty to airlines. While there are the risks for going unhedged, airlines that hedge to mitigate fuel price risk face the basis risk. This paper examines whether the length of hedge horizon and distance to contract maturity affect the effectiveness of jet fuel cross hedging. Understanding the effects of hedge duration and futures contract maturity helps improve airline’s fuel hedging strategies. We find that (1) regardless of the distance to contract maturity, weekly hedge horizon has the highest effectiveness for jet fuel proxies like heating oil, Brent, WTI, and gasoil; (2) heating oil is the best jet fuel proxy for all hedge hori-zons and contract maturities; and (3) the hedge effectiveness of heating oil is higher for one-month and three-month contracts.
燃油价格大幅且不可预测的波动给航空公司带来了财务上的不确定性。尽管不进行对冲存在风险,但为减轻燃油价格风险而进行对冲的航空公司面临的是基差风险。本文考察了套期期限的长度和合约到期日的距离是否会影响燃油交叉套期保值的有效性。了解套期期和期货合约到期日对航空公司燃油套期保值策略的影响。我们发现(1)无论与合约到期日的距离如何,对于取暖油、布伦特原油、WTI原油和汽油等喷气燃料代理而言,每周对冲地平线具有最高的有效性;(2)取暖油是所有对冲层位和合约到期日的最佳航空燃油代理;(3)取暖油一个月和三个月合约的套期保值效果更高。
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引用次数: 5
Dedicated Energy Crop Supply Chain and Associated Feedstock Transportation Emissions: A Case Study of Tennessee 专用能源作物供应链及相关原料运输排放:以田纳西州为例
Pub Date : 2016-03-01 DOI: 10.5399/OSU/JTRF.55.1.4328
T. Yu, J. Larson, B. English, J. Fu, Jimmy Calcagno, Bradley Wilson
and Bradly Wilson This study minimizes total cost for single-feedstock supply chains of two dedicated energy crops, perennial switchgrass and biomass sorghum, in Tennessee using a spatial optimization model. Greenhouse gas emissions from the transport of feedstock to the conversion facility were estimated for respective feedstock supply chains. Results show that different demand for land types from two feedstocks and the geographically diverse landscape across the state affect the economics of bioenergy crops supply chains and feedstock transportation emissions. Switchgrass is more suitable than biomass sorghum for biofuel production in Tennessee based on the supply chains cost and feedstock hauling emissions.
本研究利用空间优化模型,将田纳西州两种专用能源作物——多年生柳枝稷和生物质高粱——的单一原料供应链的总成本降至最低。从原料运输到转化设施的温室气体排放量对各自的原料供应链进行了估计。结果表明,两种原料对土地类型的不同需求以及全州地理景观的多样性影响了生物能源作物供应链的经济性和原料运输排放。基于供应链成本和原料运输排放,柳枝稷比生物质高粱更适合在田纳西州生产生物燃料。
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引用次数: 1
Effective Light Source for Illuminating Overhead Guide Signs and Improving Roadway Safety 有效光源照亮架空指示牌提高道路安全
Pub Date : 2016-03-01 DOI: 10.5399/OSU/JTRF.55.1.4331
M. Obeidat, M. Rys
Driver safety is considered an important issue to departments of transportation. One way to increase highway safety is to improve the visibility of overhead guide signs for drivers. Visibility improving methods include the use of sign illumination or retroreflective sheeting materials. This paper focuses on sign illumination by comparing five light sources including high pressure sodium (HPS), metal halide (MH), mercury vapor (MV), induction lighting, and light emitting diode (LED). A laboratory experiment was conducted to compare effective light distribution of each light source and a cost analysis was performed to compare initial, maintenance, and operating cost components of the light sources. Results of the light distribution experiment indicated that HPS was the optimum light source followed by MH, induction lighting, MV, and LED. Induction lighting is a promising lighting technology which features good efficiency and long life. According to cost analysis, induction lighting was the most effective source, followed by the LED, HPS, MV, and MH. Of the five light sources considered, induction lighting provided the best overall performance when considering initial cost, operating cost, expected maintenance, and sign illuminance. Environmentally, LED does not contain mercury, and for those agencies that prefer using sources that are friendlier with the environment, the LED can be their best choice.
驾驶员安全被交通部门认为是一个重要的问题。提高公路安全的一种方法是提高驾驶员头顶引导标志的可见度。提高能见度的方法包括使用标识照明或反光板材料。本文通过对高压钠灯(HPS)、金属卤化物灯(MH)、汞蒸气灯(MV)、感应照明和发光二极管(LED)五种光源的比较,重点研究了标识照明。通过实验室实验比较了每个光源的有效光分布,并进行了成本分析,比较了光源的初始、维护和运行成本组成部分。配光实验结果表明,HPS是最佳光源,其次是MH、感应照明、MV和LED。感应照明具有效率高、寿命长等优点,是一种很有发展前途的照明技术。根据成本分析,感应照明是最有效的光源,其次是LED, HPS, MV和MH。在考虑的五种光源中,感应照明在初始成本,运营成本,预期维护和标识照度方面提供了最佳的整体性能。在环境方面,LED不含汞,对于那些更喜欢使用对环境更友好的来源的机构来说,LED可能是他们最好的选择。
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引用次数: 0
Regression Model Evaluation for Highway Bridge Component Deterioration Using National Bridge Inventory Data 基于全国桥梁库存数据的公路桥梁构件劣化回归模型评价
Pub Date : 2016-03-01 DOI: 10.5399/OSU/JTRF.55.1.4334
Pan Lu, S. Pei, D. Tolliver
Accurate prediction of bridge component condition over time is critical for determining a reliable maintenance, repair, and rehabilitation (MRR) strategy for highway bridges. Based on bridge inspection data, regression models are the most-widely adopted tools used by researchers and state agencies to predict future bridge condition (FHWA 2007). Various regression models can produce quite different results because of the differences in modeling assumptions. The evaluation of model quality can be challenging and sometimes subjective. In this study, an external validation procedure was developed to quantitatively compare the forecasting power of different regression models for highway bridge component deterioration. Several regression models for highway bridge component rating over time were compared using the proposed procedure and a traditional apparent model evaluation method based on the goodness-of-fit to data. The results obtained by applying the two methods are compared and discussed in this paper.
准确预测桥梁构件随时间变化的状况对于确定可靠的公路桥梁维护、维修和修复(MRR)策略至关重要。基于桥梁检查数据,回归模型是研究人员和国家机构预测未来桥梁状况最广泛采用的工具(FHWA 2007)。由于建模假设的不同,不同的回归模型会产生截然不同的结果。模型质量的评估是具有挑战性的,有时是主观的。在本研究中,开发了一个外部验证程序来定量比较不同回归模型对公路桥梁构件劣化的预测能力。采用该方法和基于数据拟合优度的传统表观模型评价方法,对几种公路桥梁构件等级随时间变化的回归模型进行了比较。本文对两种方法的结果进行了比较和讨论。
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引用次数: 6
Weights from a Safety Perspective for Interchange Lighting Prioritization 从安全角度考虑立交照明优先级
Pub Date : 2015-06-01 DOI: 10.5399/OSU/JTRF.54.2.4297
S. Pulugurtha, R. Narayanan
The focus of this paper is to research and update weights (values indicating the effect) to multiply ratings of selected factors used in the Total Design Process (TDP) for interchange lighting prioritization from a safety perspective. Results based on analysis using data collected at 80 interchanges along nine segments in North Carolina showed differences in weights for currently used factors such as freeway median width, freeway number of lanes and night-time traffic volume per lane. Results also showed that considering the number of night-time crashes by severity instead of night-to-day crash rate ratio, for prioritization of interchange lighting system installation or maintenance, would reduce the bias towards interchanges with fewer numbers of crashes and lead to better utilization of limited available transportation funds.
本文的重点是研究和更新权重(表示效果的值),以从安全角度对交换照明优先级的总体设计过程(TDP)中使用的选定因素进行乘法评级。基于对北卡罗莱纳州9个路段80个立交收集的数据进行分析的结果显示,当前使用的因素(如高速公路中间宽度、高速公路车道数量和每条车道的夜间交通量)的权重存在差异。研究结果还表明,在确定立交照明系统安装或维护的优先级时,以严重程度来考虑夜间交通事故的数量,而不是以夜间交通事故比率来考虑,可以减少对交通事故较少的立交的偏好,从而更好地利用有限的可用交通资金。
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引用次数: 0
Sustaining Sustainability in Marine Terminals: A Strategic Framework 海运码头的可持续发展:战略框架
Pub Date : 2015-06-01 DOI: 10.5399/OSU/JTRF.54.2.4294
N. Mittal, Alok Baveja, R. Krishnan
Sustainability initiatives in maritime industry, despite their global need and relevance, are often riddled with strategic and implementation issues. Here we examine “green” initiatives of top-five global marine terminal operators. We classify their initiatives as technology-centric, process-centric and relationship-centric, and develop a core-competency-driven framework for these initiatives. Our findings indicate that technological initiatives are easy to adopt and yield quicker impact in reducing emissions and increasing ROI. On the other hand, process-centric and relationship-centric initiatives are more difficult to deploy, take longer to yield benefits, but are difficult to imitate. We argue that terminal operators should recognize the value of long-term initiatives that are difficult to replicate, to build competency.
尽管航运业的可持续发展倡议具有全球需求和相关性,但往往存在战略和实施问题。在这里,我们考察了全球五大海运码头运营商的“绿色”举措。我们将他们的计划分为以技术为中心、以过程为中心和以关系为中心,并为这些计划开发一个核心能力驱动的框架。我们的研究结果表明,技术举措很容易采用,并在减少排放和提高投资回报率方面产生更快的影响。另一方面,以过程为中心和以关系为中心的计划更难部署,需要更长的时间才能产生效益,但很难模仿。我们认为,码头运营商应该认识到难以复制的长期举措的价值,以建立竞争力。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of the Transportation Research Forum
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