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How Diverse Can Spatial Measures of Cultural Diversity Be? Results from Monte Carlo Simulations of an Agent-Based Model 文化多样性的空间尺度有多大?基于智能体模型的蒙特卡罗仿真结果
Pub Date : 2014-04-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2462417
Daniel Arribas-Bel, P. Nijkamp, J. Poot
Cultural diversity is a complex and multi-faceted concept. Commonly used quantitative measures of the spatial distribution of culturally-defined groups – such as segregation, isolation or concentration indexes – are often only capable of identifying just one aspect of this distribution. The strengths or weaknesses of any measure can only be comprehensively assessed empirically. This paper provides evidence on the empirical properties of various spatial measures of cultural diversity by using Monte Carlo replications of agent-based modeling (MC-ABM) simulations with synthetic data assigned to a realistic and detailed geographical context of the city of Amsterdam. Schelling’s classical segregation model is used as the theoretical engine to generate patterns of spatial clustering. The data inputs include the initial population, the number and shares of various cultural groups, and their preferences with respect to co-location. Our MC-ABM data generating process produces output maps that enable us to assess the performance of various spatial measures of cultural diversity under a range of demographic compositions and preferences. We find that, as our simulated city becomes more diverse, stable residential location equilibria are only possible when people, particularly minorities, become more tolerant. We test whether observed measures can be interpreted as revealing unobserved preferences for co-location of individuals with their own group and find that the segregation and isolation measures of spatial diversity are shown to be non-decreasing in increasing preference for within-group co-location, but the Gini coefficient and concentration measures are not.
文化多样性是一个复杂的、多方面的概念。常用的文化定义群体空间分布的定量测量方法,如隔离、隔离或浓度指数,往往只能识别这种分布的一个方面。任何措施的优点或缺点都只能通过经验来全面评估。本文通过使用基于主体的建模(MC-ABM)模拟的蒙特卡罗复制,并将合成数据分配给阿姆斯特丹市的现实和详细的地理背景,为文化多样性的各种空间测量的经验特性提供了证据。采用schelling经典分离模型作为理论引擎,生成空间聚类模式。输入的数据包括初始人口、各种文化群体的数量和份额,以及他们对共同定位的偏好。我们的MC-ABM数据生成过程生成输出图,使我们能够在一系列人口组成和偏好下评估文化多样性的各种空间测量的表现。我们发现,随着我们的模拟城市变得更加多样化,只有当人们,尤其是少数民族变得更加宽容时,稳定的居住区位平衡才有可能实现。我们检验了观察到的测量是否可以解释为揭示了未观察到的个体与自己的群体共置的偏好,发现空间多样性的隔离和隔离措施显示出对群体内共置偏好的增加不减少,但基尼系数和集中度测量却没有。
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引用次数: 5
Matched Wake Analysis: Finding Causal Relationships in Spatiotemporal Event Data 匹配尾迹分析:寻找时空事件数据中的因果关系
Pub Date : 2014-04-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2425119
Sebastian Schutte, K. Donnay
This paper introduces a new method for finding causal relationships in spatiotemporal event data with potential applications in conflict research, criminology, and epidemiology. The method analyzes how different types of interventions affect subsequent levels of reactive events. Sliding spatiotemporal windows and statistical matching are used for robust and clean causal inference. Thereby, two well-described empirical problems in establishing causal relationships in event data analysis are resolved: the modifiable areal unit problem and selection bias. The paper presents the method formally and demonstrates its effectiveness in Monte Carlo simulations and an empirical example by showing how instances of civilian assistance to US forces changed in response to indiscriminate insurgent violence in Iraq.
本文介绍了一种从时空事件数据中寻找因果关系的新方法,该方法在冲突研究、犯罪学和流行病学中具有潜在的应用前景。该方法分析了不同类型的干预如何影响反应性事件的后续水平。滑动时空窗口和统计匹配用于稳健和清晰的因果推理。因此,在事件数据分析中建立因果关系的两个描述良好的经验问题得到了解决:可修改的面积单位问题和选择偏差。本文正式介绍了该方法,并在蒙特卡罗模拟中证明了其有效性,并通过一个经验例子展示了在伊拉克不分青红皂白的叛乱暴力事件中,向美军提供民事援助的实例是如何变化的。
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引用次数: 35
Spatial Regression-Based Model Specifications for Exogenous and Endogenous Spatial Interaction 基于空间回归的外源性和内源性空间相互作用模型规范
Pub Date : 2014-03-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2420746
J. LeSage, M. Fischer
Spatial interaction models represent a class of models that are used for modelling origin-destination flow data. The focus of this paper is on the log-normal version of the model. In this context, we consider spatial econometric specifications that can be used to accommodate two types of dependence scenarios, one involving endogenous interaction and the other exogenous interaction. These model specifications replace the conventional assumption of independence between origin-destination flows with formal approaches that allow for two different types of spatial dependence in magnitudes. Endogenous interaction reflects situations where there is a reaction to feedback regarding flow magnitudes from regions neighbouring origin and destination regions. This type of interaction can be modelled using specifications proposed by LeSage and Pace (2008) who use spatial lags of the dependent variable to quantify the magnitude and extent of the feedback effects, hence the term endogenous interaction. Exogenous interaction represents a situation where spillovers arise from nearby (or perhaps even distant) regions, and these need to be taken into account when modelling observed variations in flows across the network of regions. In contrast to endogenous interaction, these contextual effects do not generate reactions to the spillovers, leading to a model specification that can be interpreted without considering changes in the long-run equilibrium state of the system of flows. As in the case of social networks, contextual effects are modelled using spatial lags of the explanatory variables that represent characteristics of neighbouring (or more generally connected) regions, but not spatial lags of the dependent variable, hence the term exogenous interaction. In addition to setting forth expressions for the true partial derivatives of non-spatial and endogenous spatial interaction models and associated scalar summary measures from Thomas-Agnan and LeSage (2014), we propose new scalar summary measures for the exogenous spatial interaction specification introduced here. An illustration applies the exogenous spatial interaction model to a flow matrix of teacher movements between 67 school districts in the state of Florida.
空间交互模型代表了一类用于模拟始发-目的地流数据的模型。本文的重点是该模型的对数正态版本。在此背景下,我们考虑了可用于容纳两种依赖情景的空间计量规范,一种涉及内源性相互作用,另一种涉及外源性相互作用。这些模型规范用允许两种不同类型的空间依赖程度的形式化方法取代了传统的起源-目的地流之间独立的假设。内源性相互作用反映了对来自邻近起源和目的地地区的流量大小反馈的反应。这种类型的相互作用可以使用LeSage和Pace(2008)提出的规范来建模,他们使用因变量的空间滞后来量化反馈效应的大小和程度,因此称为内生相互作用。外生相互作用代表了一种情况,即溢出效应来自附近(甚至可能是遥远)地区,当建模观察到跨区域网络的流动变化时,需要考虑到这些因素。与内生相互作用相反,这些背景效应不会对溢出效应产生反应,从而导致可以在不考虑流动系统长期平衡状态变化的情况下解释模型规范。就像在社会网络中一样,背景效应是使用代表邻近(或更普遍的连接)区域特征的解释变量的空间滞后来建模的,但不是因变量的空间滞后,因此称为外生相互作用。除了提出Thomas-Agnan和LeSage(2014)提出的非空间和内生空间相互作用模型的真偏导数表达式以及相关的标量汇总测度外,我们还为本文介绍的外生空间相互作用规范提出了新的标量汇总测度。一个插图将外生空间相互作用模型应用于佛罗里达州67个学区之间教师运动的流动矩阵。
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引用次数: 27
Core-Periphery Model in Discrete Time - An Analysis 离散时间核心-外围模型分析
Pub Date : 2014-02-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2402196
L. Garrido-da-Silva
This paper is devoted to the understanding of the emergence of chaos in the discrete time version of the core-periphery model proposed by Currie and Kubin (2006). To this purpose, we present a careful and thorough analysis of the model, including proofs of relevant unproved statements. We are able to describe the sources of chaos and, in some cases, determine how to eliminate them. The analytical study is complemented by numerical simulations in Matlab.
本文致力于理解Currie和Kubin(2006)提出的核心-外围模型的离散时间版本中混沌的出现。为此,我们对该模型进行了仔细而彻底的分析,包括对相关未证明陈述的证明。我们能够描述混乱的来源,在某些情况下,确定如何消除它们。在Matlab中进行了数值模拟。
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引用次数: 2
Identifying Regional Differences in the Spanish Mortgage Market with Sheaf Methodology 用Sheaf方法识别西班牙抵押贷款市场的地区差异
Pub Date : 2014-02-21 DOI: 10.7200/ESICM.146.0443.4
Magdalena Ferrán Aranaz, J. A. Marquez
The strong expansion of mortgage credit in Spain during the second half of the nineties was due to a decline in interest rates (a reduction that was greater in Spain than elsewhere in Europe) and also to a tremendous competition between financial institutions to increase market share. This expansive phase lasted until 2006, followed by a sharp turnaround in 2007. The aim of this paper is to illustrate the evolution of the mortgage market in different Spanish provinces. We have performed a comparative analysis of different regional trajectories using statistics on the number of monthly housing loans for the period between late 1995 and early 2012, applying sheaf methodology for the visual comparison of geographic time series. We conclude that the provinces that have been hit the hardest by the recent recession are those that reached the higher peaks during the expansionary cycle.
在九十年代后半期,西班牙抵押贷款的强劲扩张是由于利率的下降(西班牙的下降幅度比欧洲其他地方更大)以及金融机构之间为增加市场份额而进行的激烈竞争。这一扩张阶段一直持续到2006年,随后在2007年出现急剧好转。本文的目的是说明西班牙不同省份抵押贷款市场的演变。我们利用1995年底至2012年初期间每月住房贷款数量的统计数据,对不同地区的轨迹进行了比较分析,并应用了地理时间序列的视觉比较的束法。我们得出的结论是,受近期衰退打击最严重的省份是那些在扩张周期中达到较高峰值的省份。
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引用次数: 1
The Asymmetric Spatial Effects for Eastern and Western Regions of Russia 俄罗斯东西部地区的非对称空间效应
Pub Date : 2014-02-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2392296
O. Demidova
The purpose of this study is to identify the spatial effects of the main macroeconomic indicators of the eastern and western regions of Russia. These regions differ significantly in population density and the distances between cities. The main research question we are interested in is the following: how are events occurring in one of the western regions, such as economic growth or a decrease in the unemployment rate, effecting similar indicators in other western and eastern regions. The spatial effects of the western and eastern regions, when considered separately, may differ both qualitatively and with of the ‘flow on effect’. The determinants of the same macro-economic indicators in the eastern and western regions may also differ. In order to test the hypothesis of a possible difference in the spatial effects and determinants for these regions, we have developed a special class of model with four spatial matrices (west-west, east-east, west-east, and east-west) and a double set of control variables (one for each type of region). As the macroeconomic indicators monitor the rate of unemployment in the region, the real regional wage and GRP growth for the year were chosen for our models. We controlled the variables describing the socio-demographic situation in the region, migration processes, economic development, and export-import activity in the region. The models were estimated by the Arellano-Bond method on panel data for Russian regions over 2000-2010. Our analysis revealed, 1) a positive spatial correlation of the main macroeconomic indicators for the western regions, 2) both positive and negative externalities for the eastern regions and 3) the asymmetric influence of eastern and western regions on each other. Usually “impulses” from the western regions have a positive effect on the eastern regions, but the “impulses” from the eastern regions usually do not affect the western regions.
本研究的目的是确定俄罗斯东部和西部地区主要宏观经济指标的空间效应。这些地区的人口密度和城市之间的距离差别很大。我们感兴趣的主要研究问题是:一个西部地区发生的事件,如经济增长或失业率下降,如何影响其他西部和东部地区的类似指标。西部和东部地区的空间效应,如果分开考虑,可能会在质量上和“流动效应”上有所不同。同样的宏观经济指标在东部和西部地区的决定因素也可能不同。为了检验这些地区在空间效应和决定因素方面可能存在差异的假设,我们开发了一类特殊的模型,该模型具有四个空间矩阵(西-西、东-东、西-东和东西)和双控制变量集(每种类型的地区一个)。由于宏观经济指标监测了该地区的失业率,因此我们的模型选择了该地区当年的实际工资和国内生产总值增长率。我们控制了描述该地区社会人口状况、移民过程、经济发展和该地区进出口活动的变量。这些模型采用Arellano-Bond方法对2000-2010年俄罗斯地区的面板数据进行了估计。分析结果表明:西部地区主要宏观经济指标的空间正相关;东部地区的正外部性和负外部性均存在;东部地区与西部地区的相互影响不对称。通常来自西部的“冲动”会对东部产生积极的影响,但来自东部的“冲动”通常不会影响西部。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluating Investments in Economic Corridor Development: Lessons from the South Asia Subregional Economic Cooperation Study 评价经济走廊发展投资:南亚次区域经济合作研究的经验教训
Pub Date : 2014-01-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2382528
H. Brunner, Kislaya Prasad
This paper examines experience of economic corridor development in the South Asia Subregional Economic Cooperation (SASEC) region of South Asia. It lays out an applied framework for prioritizing trade-related interventions and investments according to the expected strength of their combined economic impacts. Along the way, and for the first time, the economic geography of northeastern South Asia has been comprehensively mapped. Computer-driven modeling traces the links between resulting spatial transformations to trade affecting productivity, and the spatial distribution of productivity. Spatial transformation and structural changes suggest another channel for welfare gains from trade. In this way the paper makes a novel contribution to the new economic geography literature.
本文考察了南亚次区域经济合作区域经济走廊发展的经验。它提出了一个适用框架,根据与贸易有关的干预措施和投资的综合经济影响的预期强度,确定其优先次序。在此过程中,南亚东北部的经济地理首次被全面绘制出来。计算机驱动的模型追踪了由此产生的空间转换与影响生产率的贸易之间的联系,以及生产率的空间分布。空间转换和结构变化为贸易福利收益提供了另一条渠道。从而为新经济地理文献做出了新的贡献。
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引用次数: 1
Occupiers' Perception of Commercial Leases: Empirical Evidence from Ede, Nigeria 占用者对商业租赁的感知:来自尼日利亚埃德的经验证据
Pub Date : 2014-01-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2784504
D. Dabara, Ankeli Ikpeme Anthony, O. Adeyanju, A. G. Odewande
The purpose of this study is to examine the perception of commercial property occupiers’ towards their lease structures, terms and duration (LSTD) in Ede, Nigeria. Questionnaire survey was carried out to elicit for information from the occupiers’ in the study area. The targeted population for the study consisted of 917 shops in prime commercial areas of Ede. The sample size adopted was 12% of the population. The random sampling technique was used in selection of the sample size for the study. Structured questionnaires were administered to shop owners in the study area, which totaled 150. However, only 113 questionnaires were retrieved (i.e 75% response rate). The results from the 113 responses were collated and analyzed using both descriptive and inferential statistics. The study revealed that most occupiers in the study area are satisfied with their current lease duration which is mostly of a year (renewable) duration; most of the occupiers are however dissatisfied with some of the terms in their lease structure. It was recommended that the government should intervene in the real estate rental market in Nigeria by harmonizing the LSTD in the country. Leases should also be structured in such a way that it will be acceptable and satisfactory to both the lessees and the lessors. This will help in the mitigation of the constant conflicts experienced among stakeholders in the Nigerian rental property market as well as address the mismatch between what occupiers’ desire and what lenders or lessors provide.
本研究的目的是检查商业物业占用人对他们的租赁结构,期限和持续时间(LSTD)在尼日利亚埃德的看法。采用问卷调查的方式,对研究区内的住户进行问卷调查。该研究的目标人群包括埃德市主要商业区的917家商店。采用的样本量为人口的12%。本研究的样本量选择采用随机抽样方法。研究人员对研究区域的店主进行了结构化问卷调查,共计150份。然而,只有113份问卷被回收(即75%的回复率)。对113份回复的结果进行整理和分析,使用描述性和推断性统计。研究显示,研究区内大部分住户对现时的租期感到满意,大部分租期为一年(可续期);然而,大多数租户对租赁结构中的一些条款不满意。建议政府通过协调该国的LSTD来干预尼日利亚的房地产租赁市场。租约的结构也应使承租人和出租人都能接受和满意。这将有助于缓解尼日利亚租赁房地产市场中利益相关者之间不断发生的冲突,并解决居住者的愿望与贷方或出租人提供的不匹配的问题。
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引用次数: 1
Borrowing Constraints during the Housing Bubble 房地产泡沫时期的借贷限制
Pub Date : 2013-12-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2229571
Irina Barakova, P. Calem, Susan M. Wachter
The impact of borrowing constraints on homeownership has been well established in the literature. Wealth is most likely to restrict homeownership followed by credit and income. Using recent movers from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth and borrowing constraint definitions commonly used in the literature, we examine the impact of these constraints on the probability of homeownership during the housing market boom between 2003 and 2007. We show that whereas the pool of financially constrained households expanded, the marginal impact of borrowing constraints associated with income and credit quality declined during this period. The constraint associated with wealth, however, continued to have a negative impact on homeownership status, all else equal. The fact that lending standards became less strict is accepted; however the impact of this on homeownership has not been previously studied. Here we find that less restrictive underwriting does appear to have reduced the impact of income and credit quality on homeownership but the impact of the wealth constraint persists.
借贷限制对房屋所有权的影响已经在文献中得到了很好的证实。财富最有可能限制住房所有权,其次是信贷和收入。利用1979年全国青年纵向调查的最新数据和文献中常用的借贷约束定义,我们研究了这些约束对2003年至2007年房地产市场繁荣期间房屋所有权概率的影响。我们表明,在此期间,尽管财务受限的家庭数量有所扩大,但与收入和信贷质量相关的借贷限制的边际影响有所下降。然而,在其他条件相同的情况下,与财富相关的约束继续对住房拥有率产生负面影响。人们接受了贷款标准变得不那么严格的事实;然而,这对房屋所有权的影响以前没有研究过。在这里,我们发现限制性较低的承保似乎确实降低了收入和信贷质量对房屋所有权的影响,但财富约束的影响仍然存在。
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引用次数: 60
Assessment of Local Key Sectors in a Triple-Layer Spatial System 三层空间系统的局部关键扇区评价
Pub Date : 2013-09-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2328609
E. Leeuwen, Y. Ishikawa, P. Nijkamp
This article addresses the differentiated impacts of various sectors and branches in a multi-layer regional system. As a case-study the Cairngorms National Park (CNP) in Scotland is used. In this area, policy makers ”at different administrative levels” strongly emphasize the need for new sustainable economic development. We use a novel combination of stakeholder analysis with household questionnaires and interregional input-output analysis to define the most important local key-sectors as carriers for local sustainability. The methodological vehicle employed is based on microsimulation. This paper demonstrates how, even for small areas such as the CNP in Scotland, survey information combined with secondary data and existing input-output tables can be integrated into a useful policy tool.
本文探讨了多层次区域体系中各部门和分支的差异化影响。作为一个案例研究,苏格兰的凯恩戈姆国家公园(CNP)被使用。在这方面,“不同行政级别”的决策者强烈强调需要新的可持续经济发展。我们将利益相关者分析与家庭问卷调查和区域间投入产出分析相结合,以确定最重要的地方关键部门作为地方可持续性的载体。所采用的方法是基于微观模拟。本文展示了如何将调查信息与二手数据和现有投入产出表相结合,整合成一个有用的政策工具,即使是在苏格兰的CNP这样的小地区。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
ERN: Analytical Models (Topic)
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