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Socio-spatial Aspects Contributing to the Spread of COVID-19 in Yogyakarta Province (Indonesia) 促进COVID-19在日惹省(印度尼西亚)传播的社会空间因素
IF 0.3 Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.21638/spbu07.2023.209
R. Pramono, Ramadhani N. Putri
In the early pandemic, the positive cases of COVID-19 predominately occurred in the big cities in Indonesia. However, the virus spread rapidly and extensively across the cities and districts. This shows that the COVID-19 pandemic is limited to urban areas and has spread widely to more remote area This study aims to investigate the correlation between socio-economic characteristics against the spread of confirmed COVID-19 cases. In this study, we collected data from residents with confirmed positive for COVID-19 and their socio-economic profiles in 78 subdistricts in the Special Region of Yogyakarta province, Indonesia. The collected data were statistically analyzed in three sequential steps, including a correlation test, classic assumption test (e.g., normality test, homoscedasticity test, and non-multicollinearity test), and multiple regression test to determine the correlation between the COVID-19-infected population and the socio-economic data in each subdistrict (as dependent variables). The results demonstrated that regions with more urban character, particularly socio-economic, were more susceptible to COVID-19 infection during the first year of the pandemic. However, the socio-spatial aspects such as population density as one of the requirements for the "compact cities" and the proportion of built-up land area were not contributing factors to the viral transmission. Socio-spatial aspects may influence the risk of virus transmission, but not as significantly as social factors and human behavior in an area. Therefore, efforts to prevent the spread of the COVID-19 virus must be more focused on social factors and human behavior.
在大流行早期,COVID-19阳性病例主要发生在印度尼西亚的大城市。然而,病毒在城市和地区迅速而广泛地传播。这表明COVID-19大流行仅限于城市地区,并已广泛传播到更偏远的地区。本研究旨在探讨社会经济特征与COVID-19确诊病例传播之间的相关性。在这项研究中,我们收集了来自印度尼西亚日惹省特区78个街道的COVID-19确诊阳性居民及其社会经济概况的数据。对收集到的数据进行相关检验、经典假设检验(如正态性检验、均方差检验、非多元共线性检验)和多元回归检验3个步骤的统计分析,确定各街道感染人群与社会经济数据(作为因变量)的相关性。结果表明,在大流行的第一年,城市特征更强的地区,特别是社会经济特征更强的地区,更容易感染COVID-19。然而,社会空间方面,如作为“紧凑型城市”要求之一的人口密度和建成土地面积的比例,并不是病毒传播的促成因素。社会空间因素可能会影响病毒传播的风险,但影响程度不如一个地区的社会因素和人类行为。因此,预防新冠病毒传播必须更加注重社会因素和人的行为。
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引用次数: 0
Spatial transformation of the migration system during the crisis 危机时期移民制度的空间转换
IF 0.3 Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.21638/spbu07.2023.102
M. M. Agafoshin, S. Gorokhov, R. Dmitriev
The article devotes to identify the features of the functioning of migration systems in crisis periods characterized by extensive increase of forced migrants' flows. The events of the European migration crisis are analyzed in the case of “Arab countries of Asia - The European Union” migration system. The transformation of the migration system is considered within the framework of geographical variant of the traditional three–stage model of migration process proposed by the authors. The first stage are explored the movements within the region of migration flows formations are explored, the second – the movements between the regions of the formation and accumulation of migration flows within transit regions, the third – the movements within the region of the accumulation of migration flows. Quick increase the number of forced migrants leads to changes in their flow characteristics at each stage, as well as to the expansion of the space of the migration system – compared with that in non-crisis periods. At the same time, there is a complication of the system's structure due to the formation of not only primary and secondary transit regions, but also mono- and poly-branched migration routes within their limits. The findings of the Modified Fractionalization Index (MFI) indicate about a significant decrease in the degree of diversification of migration routes during crisis periods. The result of the distribution of migrants within the region of accumulation is an increase of their territorial concentration. The policy of the European authorities to equalize territorial disparities in the resettlement of migrants has had almost no success. A further increase in the concentration of migrants in the largest urban agglomerations resulting from self-organized movements leads to an aggravation of the ethnic and confessional exclusion of the migrant population.
本文致力于确定危机时期移民系统的功能特征,其特征是被迫移民流动的广泛增加。以“亚洲阿拉伯国家-欧盟”移民体系为例,分析了欧洲移民危机事件。迁移系统的转变是在作者提出的传统迁移过程三阶段模型的地理变异框架内考虑的。第一个阶段是探索迁移流形成区域内的运动,第二个阶段是研究迁移流形成区域和过境区域内迁移流聚集区域之间的运动,第三个阶段是研究迁移流聚集区域内的运动。与非危机时期相比,被迫移民人数的迅速增加导致其在每个阶段的流动特征发生变化,并扩大了移民系统的空间。同时,由于形成了主要和次要的运输区域,并且在其范围内形成了单分支和多分支的迁移路线,使得系统结构变得复杂。修正分馏指数(MFI)的结果表明,在危机时期,移民路线的多样化程度显著下降。移民在集聚区域内分布的结果是其地域集中度的增加。欧洲当局在重新安置移民方面平衡领土差异的政策几乎没有取得成功。由于自我组织的流动,移徙者进一步集中在最大的城市群,导致对移徙人口的种族和宗教排斥加剧。
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引用次数: 1
From carbon polygon to carbon farm: The potential and ways of developing the sequestration carbon industry in the Leningrad Region and St Petersburg 从碳多边形到碳农场:列宁格勒地区和圣彼得堡发展固碳工业的潜力和途径
IF 0.3 Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.21638/spbu07.2023.105
M. Makarova, E. Abakumov, Evgeny V. Shevchenko, N. Paramonova, N. Pakhomova, N. Lvova, M. A. Vetrova, S. Foka, Yu.N. Guzov, V. Ivakhov, D. Ionov, Anton V. Khoroshavin, V. Kostsov, S. Mikushev, E. Mikhailov, Artem A. Pavlovsky, V. Titov
Climate change is one of the most important global problems of the 21st century. The territory of Russia is located in an area of significant observed and forecasted climate change. Achieving Russia's carbon neutrality by 2060 requires the development of a national system for monitoring greenhouse gas emissions and uptake. To achieve this goal, the Ministry of Science and Higher Education launched a pilot programme to create a national network of carbon polygons. St Petersburg State University together with Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory created the concept of Ladoga carbon polygon focusing the study the greenhouse gas absorption (or sequestration) potential of forest ecosystems typical for Northwest Russia. The evolution of this project assumes the establishment of a forest carbon farm (nature-based solutions). Based on the assumption that the territories of forest areas that were previously part of the state agricultural lands of the Leningrad region can be used for carbon farms (afforestation, enhanced carbon uptake by changing land use), an estimate of CO2 absorption has been made. For the total area of forest carbon farms of 677.9 · 103 ha, it was evaluated of 3700 ± 1900 kt CO2/year or (1000 ± 520) ·106kg С/ year. It is shown that the CO2 absorption of such carbon farms can offset up to 20 % of the total CO2 emission of the Leningrad Region and not more than 8 % of the total CO2 emission for the combined region consisting of Leningrad Region and St Petersburg. The economic effect of the operation of forest carbon farms can only be achieved in the long term. At the current price level per tonne of CO2 (35 USD/(t CO2 )), a 1 hectare of forest carbon farm would yield an income of 9500 USD over a 75-year lifetime. This determines the economic feasibility of creating carbon farms, which is also due to the potential for the production of carbon units based on them, which will either be traded on carbon exchanges or be taken into account as the results of activities aimed at reducing carbon emissions.
气候变化是21世纪最重要的全球性问题之一。俄罗斯领土位于观测和预测气候变化显著的地区。要在2060年前实现俄罗斯的碳中和,就需要建立一个监测温室气体排放和吸收的国家体系。为了实现这一目标,科学和高等教育部启动了一个试点项目,以创建一个全国碳多边形网络。圣彼得堡国立大学与Voeikov主要地球物理观测站一起创造了拉多加碳多边形的概念,重点研究俄罗斯西北部典型森林生态系统的温室气体吸收(或封存)潜力。该项目的演变假设建立一个森林碳农场(基于自然的解决方案)。基于假设列宁格勒地区以前作为国家农业用地一部分的森林地区可以用于碳农场(造林,通过改变土地利用增强碳吸收),对二氧化碳吸收进行了估计。对于677.9·103 ha的森林碳场总面积,估算为3700±1900 kt CO2/年或(1000±520)·106kg С/年。研究表明,这些碳农场的二氧化碳吸收可以抵消列宁格勒地区二氧化碳排放总量的20%,而列宁格勒地区和圣彼得堡组成的联合地区的二氧化碳排放总量不超过8%。森林碳农场的经济效益只有长期才能实现。按照目前每吨二氧化碳的价格水平(35美元/吨二氧化碳),1公顷的森林碳农场在75年的生命周期内将产生9500美元的收入。这决定了创建碳农场的经济可行性,这也是由于基于它们生产碳单位的潜力,这些碳单位要么在碳交易所进行交易,要么被视为旨在减少碳排放的活动的结果。
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引用次数: 0
Alternative spatial weights matrices: methodology and application in calculating LISA 可选空间权重矩阵:计算LISA的方法和应用
IF 0.3 Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.21638/spbu07.2023.210
Igor Yu. Okunev, Anna E. Kushnareva
The heuristic potential of spatial methods depends heavily on thechoice ofa spatial weight matrix. The article illustrates the creation and use ofabsolute geographic versus relative socio-political matrix and tests both by calculating spatial autocorrelation for development indicators. Particularly, a comparison is made of spatial association patterns in geometric and geopolitical space on a sample of the 193 UN member states. The Moran's I is calculated to assess the degree of the neighborhood effect for both matrices. International clustering patterns are explored with local indicators of spatial association (LISA), plotted on a map with the two types of matrices. Comparing LISA cartograms helps identify possible opportunities for socio-political phenomena to spread throughout space, as well as the trends inthe spatial organization of the international politics. Carrying out calculations with different matrices allows us to single out groups of observations that constitute the core of the cluster. On the contrary, “transitive” observations that change their cluster affiliation in a supposedly homogeneous group, can also be detected. Also, the usage of different types of weight matrices can help highlight the “gray zones” - parts of the data set that lack spatial autocorrelation and may require additional research. Overall, the results suggest that usingboth absolute topological and relative socio-economic weight matrices is reasonable for the purposes of exploratory spatial analysis. Using matrices based on different types of variables concurrently can assist in detecting new trends in spatial organization and providing empirical confirmation for existing spatial patterns.
空间方法的启发式潜力在很大程度上取决于空间权重矩阵的选择。本文阐述了绝对地理与相对社会政治矩阵的创建和使用,并通过计算发展指标的空间自相关性对两者进行了检验。特别地,以193个联合国成员国为样本,比较了几何空间和地缘政治空间的空间联系模式。计算Moran's I来评估两个矩阵的邻域效应的程度。国际聚类模式探索与空间关联(LISA)的地方指标,绘制在地图上与两种类型的矩阵。比较LISA地图有助于确定社会政治现象在整个空间中传播的可能机会,以及国际政治空间组织的趋势。用不同的矩阵进行计算使我们能够挑出构成集群核心的观察组。相反,“传递性”观测也可以被检测到,这些观测改变了它们在一个假定的同质组中的簇隶属关系。此外,使用不同类型的权重矩阵可以帮助突出“灰色地带”——数据集中缺乏空间自相关性的部分,可能需要额外的研究。总体而言,研究结果表明,在探索性空间分析中,使用绝对拓扑和相对社会经济权重矩阵是合理的。同时使用基于不同类型变量的矩阵有助于发现空间组织的新趋势,并为现有的空间格局提供经验证实。
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引用次数: 0
Advective Components Determination of Mass, Heat and Substances Exchange According to Natural Data at the Mouth of the Black River (Sevastopol Region) 黑河入海口(塞瓦斯托波尔地区)自然数据的质量、热量和物质交换的平流成分测定
IF 0.3 Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.21638/spbu07.2023.107
R. Minkovskaya, K. Slepchuk, Dmitry A. Antonenkov
Physical and mathematical modeling of nonstationary exchange processes in the zone of interaction of heterogeneous waters at the mouths of rivers remains problematic. Therefore, the paper proposes and tests a method for estimating multidirectional water, heat and salts consumption in this zone based on field data. For this purpose, a program of long-term expeditionary research was developed, full-scale measurements were carried out in 2017–2021, an algorithm and a calculation program were developed and methods for quantifying the components of metabolic processes were tested according to full-scale studies in 2019 at the mouth of the Black river, in the zone of interaction of river water and desalinated water of the Sevastopol Bay. The article provides a methodology and an example of the assessment of water, salt and heat exchange for a representative expedition carried out under average hydrometeorological conditions during the low-water periods. Calculations are made by the analytical method, using standard programs, and by the graphical method, by graphical interpolation and planimetry of areas. The discrepancies between the results obtained by different methods were 2–7 %, which indicates the possibility of using this technique to process long-term data with sufficient accuracy. The proposed method for quantifying the components of exchange processes based on natural data can be used in any formation of different types of river mouths for balance calculations, forecasting possible changes in their state and adjacent parts of the sea under the influence of natural and anthropogenic factors, as well as for calibration and verification of models.
河口非均质水相互作用区非平稳交换过程的物理和数学建模仍然存在问题。为此,本文提出并试验了一种基于现场资料的多向水、热、盐耗估算方法。为此,制定了一项长期远征研究计划,在2017-2021年进行了全面测量,开发了一种算法和计算程序,并根据2019年在塞瓦斯托波尔湾河水和淡化水相互作用区域进行的全面研究,测试了量化代谢过程成分的方法。本文提供了在平均水文气象条件下进行的一次有代表性的考察在低潮期进行水、盐和热交换评估的方法和实例。采用解析法、标准程序和图解法、图解插值法和面积平面法进行计算。不同方法得到的结果之间的差异为2 - 7%,表明使用该技术处理长期数据具有足够的精度。所提出的基于自然数据的交换过程组成部分量化方法可用于不同类型河口的任何形成,用于平衡计算、预测自然和人为因素影响下河口状态和邻近海域可能发生的变化,以及用于模式的校准和验证。
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引用次数: 0
Conditions of formation and sources of fluids of the birthplace of barren residential quartz of hydrothermal-metamorphogenic-metasomatic and hydrothermal-metamorphogenic genesis (Middle and South Urals) 乌拉尔中南部热液变质-交代和热液变质成因秃岩石英发源地形成条件及流体来源
IF 0.3 Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.21638/spbu07.2023.201
M. A. Korekina, Alexandr N. Savichev
The paper considers the conditions of quartz formation of hydrothermal-metamorphogenic-metasomatic and hydrothermal-metamorphogenic genesis of deposits and manifestations of the Middle and Southern Urals based on the study of fluid inclusions by methods of thermobarogeochemistry, ion and gas chromatography. It is established that the studied quartz objects are formed in a wide temperature range, against the background of insignificant differences in pressure values. It is shown that the temperatures of mineral formation in deposits of hydrothermal-metamorphogenic-metasomatic genesis vary from 440-230 ° C at a pressure of 1.2-1.4 kbar. The formation of these veins occurred with the participation of K-Mg-Fe-chloride fluid with a salinity of 1.2-8.7 wt. % NaCl-eq., depleted Mg and Fe due to the deposition of magnesia-ferruginous carbonates. A typomorphic feature of hydrothermal-metamorphogenic-metasomatic quartz is the high values of boron associated with the placement of quartz veins among pegmatoids and the presence of boron-containing mineral inclusions on quartz-vein objects. Veins of hydrothermal-metamorphogenic genesis were formed when the crack system was filled with quartz with the participation of a substantially K-Na chloride fluid (0.2-15.5 wt. % NaCl-eq.), at homogenization temperatures of 435-335 ° C and a pressure of 1.3-2.3 kbar. In the composition of fluid inclusions of hydrothermal-metamorphogenic-metasomatic quartz, the sum of "harmful" components (H2O, CO2, CH4, Cl, B, Na, K, Mg and Li) is less than in hydrothermal-metamorphogenic quartz. The studied quartz deposits and veins were formed in the range of temperatures and pressures not higher than the green shale stage during several successive stages: the formation of quartz veins – in a more high-temperature hydrothermal stage, while subsequent changes in quartz veins occurred under the influence of metamorphism processes, with a decrease in temperature. Subsequent changes are associated with the appearance of fracturing, cataclysm and recrystallization of quartz bodies with a decrease in grain size.
通过对流体包裹体的热压地球化学、离子和气相色谱等方法的研究,探讨了乌拉尔中南部地区热液变质交代和热液变质成因的石英形成条件及矿床表现。结果表明,所研究的石英物体是在较宽的温度范围内形成的,背景是压力值差异不显著。结果表明,在1.2 ~ 1.4 kbar压力下,热液-变质-交代成因矿床的矿物形成温度在440 ~ 230℃之间。这些矿脉的形成有钾镁铁氯化铁流体的参与,其盐度为1.2-8.7 wt. % NaCl-eq。镁铁碳酸盐的沉积导致镁铁的枯竭。热液变质交代石英的标型特征是高硼值与石英脉在伟晶岩中的位置和石英脉物体上含硼矿物包裹体的存在有关。当裂缝系统中充满石英,其中含有大量的K-Na氯化流体(0.2-15.5 wt. % NaCl-eq.),在均匀温度为350 -335℃,压力为1.3-2.3 kbar时,形成了热液变质成因脉。在热液-变质-交代石英流体包裹体组成中,“有害”组分(H2O、CO2、CH4、Cl、B、Na、K、Mg和Li)的总和小于热液-变质石英。所研究的石英矿床和石英脉是在不高于绿色页岩阶段的温度和压力范围内连续几个阶段形成的:石英脉的形成-在高温热液阶段,而石英脉的后续变化是在变质作用的影响下发生的,温度下降。随后的变化与石英体的破裂、灾变和再结晶的出现有关,晶粒尺寸变小。
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引用次数: 0
Hydrochemical assessment of transboundary rivers (on the example of the Narva border river) 跨界河流的水化学评价(以纳尔瓦河为例)
IF 0.3 Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.21638/spbu07.2023.108
T. Potapova, Olga V. Zadonskaja, Tatyana V. Parshina
The purpose of the study is to establish the regularities of the formation of the biogenic regime of the Narva River. Based on experimental data on the determination of concentrations of chemical elements for the long-term observation period from 1992 to 2019, a trend of reducing the content of biogenic elements over the past 14 years has been revealed. This is a consequence of reducing the anthropogenic load due to the reconstruction of treatment facilities on the Estonian and Russian sides. Analysis of intra-annual changes in the content of biogenic elements showed a steady increase in the content of nitrogen compounds during high water with maximum water runoff and an increase in phosphorus content in the autumn period. This indicates a significant influence of the waters of Lake Peipus and the Narva reservoir, which determine the intra-reservoir processes that intensify at the end of the warm season. The calculation of runoff based on experimental data of average annual water consumption and monthly determinations of concentrations of mineral, biogenic and organic substances for the period from 1992 to 2019. The calculated values of the runoff indicators are: ionic runoff 43,1 t/km2, total phosphorus 9,8 kg/km2, total nitrogen 142 kg/km2, organic carbon 2,75 t/km2, according to the background values of the runoff indicators of the Baltic region. It is important to note that for the period from 1993 to 2006; significantly higher runoff rates for phosphorus phosphates and nitrogen nitrates corresponded to the literature data on runoff from reclaimed agricultural areas, which also indicates a significant decrease in the biogenic load on the Narva River in the last decade from 2006 to 2019.
研究的目的是建立纳尔瓦河生物成因机制的形成规律。根据1992 - 2019年长期观察期化学元素浓度测定实验数据,揭示了近14年来生物源元素含量降低的趋势。这是由于重建爱沙尼亚和俄罗斯两方面的处理设施而减少了人为负荷的结果。生物源元素含量的年际变化分析表明,高水期径流量最大,氮化合物含量稳定增加,秋季磷含量增加。这表明沛浦斯湖和纳尔瓦水库的水有重大影响,它们决定了在暖季结束时加剧的水库内过程。基于1992 - 2019年平均年用水量实验数据和月矿物、生物和有机物质浓度测定的径流计算根据波罗的海地区径流指标的背景值,径流指标的计算值为:离子径流43.1 t/km2,总磷9.8 kg/km2,总氮142 kg/km2,有机碳2.75 t/km2。值得注意的是,1993年至2006年期间;与文献数据相对应的是,开垦农业区径流中磷和硝态氮的径流量显著增加,这也表明在2006年至2019年的过去十年中,纳尔瓦河的生物负荷显著减少。
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引用次数: 0
On the revision of historical collections of three-dimensional models of foraminifers from the Paleontological Museum of St Petersburg State University 圣彼得堡国立大学古生物博物馆有孔虫三维模型历史藏品的修订
IF 0.3 Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.21638/spbu07.2023.205
I. Y. Bugrova
Two collections of plaster models of foraminifera from the Paleontological Museum of St. Petersburg State University were studied. The first one (No. ПЛ ОФ 721) is represented by 95 objects. The time of its acquisition and authorship were unknown, some of the models were kept without labels, there was no catalog and records of its receipt. The collection has not been used for teaching or exposure in the museum. As it turned out the creator of the original collection was Academician Alcide d'Orbigny, who first described foraminifers as a separate group of animals in 1826 in the monograph “Tableau méthodique de la classe des Céphalopodes”. The 100 plaster foraminiferal models were made by him to illustrate the classification the new group. The original d'Orbigny’s collection is kept in the National Museum of Natural History in Paris, and its copies were acquired by museums and universities in different countries. The copy of the d'Orbigny collection of the Paleontological Museum of St. Petersburg State University was probably made by the German trading company “Dr. F. Krantz, Rheinisches Mineralien-Kontor”. It was acquired by the St. Petersburg Imperial University for the Geological Cabinet (museum), which were created since 1870 by Professor A.A. Inostrantsev. Based on literary sources, the history of revisions of the d'Orbigny collection has been restored. That made it possible to correct errors in the museum labels, as well as to establish the original names of species depicted as models and bring them into line with the now accepted foraminiferal taxonomy. The second collection (No. ПЛ ОФ 75) is only a part (15 objects) of the collection of 100 models made by Václav Frič to illustrate foraminiferal classification scheme by the Austrian paleontologist August von Reuss. It was purchased for the Geological Cabinet of the Higher Women's (Bestuzhev) Courses and subsequently entered the Department of Paleontology, established at Petrograd University in 1919. As a result of the revision, the species affiliation of the species depicted as the models was established in accordance with the modern system of foraminifera.
研究了来自圣彼得堡国立大学古生物博物馆的两组有孔虫石膏模型。第一个(不。ПЛ ОФ 721)由95个对象表示。它的获得时间和作者是未知的,一些模型没有标签,没有目录和收据记录。这些藏品没有被用于教学或在博物馆展出。原来,最初的收藏的创造者是阿尔西德·德·奥比尼院士,他在1826年的专着《有孔虫是一种独立的动物》中首次将有孔虫描述为一组单独的动物。他制作了100个石膏有孔虫模型来说明新类群的分类。奥比尼的原作保存在巴黎的国家自然历史博物馆,复制品则被不同国家的博物馆和大学收藏。圣彼得堡国立大学古生物博物馆的奥比尼藏品的复制品可能是由德国贸易公司Dr. F. Krantz, Rheinisches Mineralien-Kontor制造的。它被圣彼得堡帝国大学收购为地质柜(博物馆),该博物馆是由A.A. Inostrantsev教授于1870年创建的。根据文献资料,已经恢复了奥比尼收藏的修订历史。这样一来,就有可能纠正博物馆标签上的错误,也有可能确定作为模型的物种的原始名称,并使它们与现在公认的有孔虫分类学保持一致。第二辑(编号:ПЛ ОФ 75)只是Václav frinik为说明奥地利古生物学家August von Reuss的有孔虫分类方案而制作的100个模型中的一部分(15件物品)。它是为高等妇女(Bestuzhev)课程的地质内阁购买的,随后进入了1919年在彼得格勒大学成立的古生物学系。修正的结果是,根据现代有孔虫系统,建立了模型中所描述物种的隶属关系。
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引用次数: 0
Big cities of Russia and their suburbs as centers of attraction of internal migrants 俄罗斯的大城市及其郊区是吸引国内移民的中心
IF 0.3 Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.21638/spbu07.2023.103
N. Mkrtchyan, R. I. Gilmanov
Big cities and their suburbs are the main centers of attraction for internal Russian migrants, pulling the population from peripheral territories. Based on detailed data on internal Russian migration for 2011-2020. the scale of net migration is estimated in Moscow, St. Petersburg and five groups of cities with a population of 100 thousand inhabitants or more, and their suburbs. The size of the suburbs depends on the population of the cities - the larger it is, the greater the distance the cities extend their influence and, accordingly, the greater the radius of the allocation of suburbs. The number of inhabitants of cities and their suburbs is determined on the basis of the 2010 population census data, based on the distance from the city center, near, middle and far suburbs are distinguished. It is estimated that 89.6 million people lived in major cities and their suburbs (2010). The process of population concentration continued. The migration growth of Big cities and their suburbs is comparable in size, and suburbs are significantly larger in intensity than cities. The suburbs of regional capitals and largest cities have the most intensive migration growth. The nearest suburbs of cities grow most intensively due to migration. Every year, Big cities lose 40-50 thousand people in migration with their suburbs. We are not inclined to consider this evidence of the process of suburbanization, the main role is played by the sprawl of cities and the attractiveness of living in the maximum transport accessibility to their centers. Migration in the suburbs that are formed near Moscow and St. Petersburg deserves further study.
大城市及其郊区是吸引俄罗斯国内移民的主要中心,将人口从外围地区吸引过来。基于2011-2020年俄罗斯国内移民的详细数据。据估计,莫斯科、圣彼得堡和五个人口在10万以上的城市群及其郊区的净移民规模。郊区的规模取决于城市的人口——人口越多,城市的影响范围就越大,相应地,郊区的分配半径也就越大。城市及其郊区的居民人数是根据2010年人口普查数据确定的,根据与市中心的距离,区分近、中、远郊区。据估计,有8960万人居住在大城市及其郊区(2010年)。人口集中的过程仍在继续。大城市及其郊区的移民增长规模相当,郊区的移民增长强度明显大于城市。地区首府和大城市的郊区是移民增长最密集的地区。离城市最近的郊区由于移民而增长最为密集。每年,大城市有4 -5万人随郊区迁移。我们不倾向于考虑这一郊区化过程的证据,主要作用是城市的扩张和居住在最大交通可达性的城市中心的吸引力。在莫斯科和圣彼得堡附近形成的郊区的移民值得进一步研究。
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引用次数: 1
Urbanization and Suburbanization: Which One Determines Population Migration in Moscow Oblast? 城市化与郊区化:哪一个决定莫斯科州人口迁移?
IF 0.3 Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.21638/spbu07.2022.208
L. Karachurina
The aim of this paper is to examine population migration to Moscow Oblast. Moscow Oblast belongs to a small number of Russia’s regions characterized by intensive and diverse population migration. The region attracts migrants from other federal subjects of Russia as well as from abroad, there are also a distinct migration flow to Moscow Oblast originating in Moscow and migration within the borders of Moscow Oblast itself. The motives for migration are analyzed separately for studied migration flows along with the factors of the region’s attractivity for migrants, the differences between migrant flows (moving to Moscow Oblast, moving within Moscow Oblast and ‘non-mobile’ population) are identified. The research was conducted with the help of a specially designed questionnaire via SurveyMonkey platform. The study showed that the ‘suburbanization’ motives for migration related to ecological situation, privacy and monotonous urban environment are not dominant even amongst groups of migrants who have moved to villa communities and townhouses. The following factors indicating great importance for all groups of migrants were identified: the ratio between land price and distance from the center of Moscow, access to the advantages of Moscow city’s labor market, service, and leisure industry. In this context, we can imply that importance of the ‘urban logic’ remains high. Survey responses on the importance of location characteristics, as well as demographic parameters show that the most peculiar population group is ‘non-mobile’ population of Moscow Oblast. Approximately 62% of respondents from households that include those who had migration experience are oriented to work or study in Moscow. The most ‘targeted’ at the capital are migrants who had moved to Moscow Oblast from Moscow.
本文的目的是考察人口迁移到莫斯科州。莫斯科州属于俄罗斯少数几个以人口密集和多样化迁移为特征的地区。该地区吸引了来自俄罗斯其他联邦主体以及国外的移民,也有一个独特的移民流动到莫斯科州起源于莫斯科和莫斯科州本身的边界内的移民。对移民的动机分别进行了分析,研究了移民流动以及该地区对移民的吸引力因素,确定了移民流动(迁移到莫斯科州,在莫斯科州内迁移和“非流动”人口)之间的差异。研究是通过SurveyMonkey平台特别设计的问卷进行的。研究表明,即使在移居别墅社区和联排别墅的移民群体中,与生态状况、隐私和单调的城市环境有关的“郊区化”动机也不占主导地位。以下因素表明了对所有移民群体的重要性:地价与莫斯科市中心距离之间的比率,莫斯科城市劳动力市场的优势,服务和休闲产业。在这种情况下,我们可以暗示“城市逻辑”的重要性仍然很高。关于位置特征重要性的调查反馈,以及人口参数表明,最奇特的人口群体是莫斯科州的“非流动”人口。在有移民经历的家庭中,约62%的受访者倾向于在莫斯科工作或学习。首都最受“攻击”的是从莫斯科搬到莫斯科州的移民。
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引用次数: 2
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Vestnik of Saint Petersburg University Earth Sciences
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