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Vestnik Sankt-Peterburgskogo Universiteta-Ekonomika-St Petersburg University Journal of Economic Studies最新文献

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Determining the Size of Discount Rate for the Purposes of Investment Design and Evaluation of Business: on the Difference in Approaches to Calculation and Application 企业投资设计与评估中贴现率大小的确定:计算方法与应用方法的差异
IF 0.5 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.21638/spbu05.2019.104
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引用次数: 1
Kyrgyz Republic and Structural Reforms: Twenty Years of WTO Membership 吉尔吉斯共和国与结构改革:加入WTO二十年
IF 0.5 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.21638/spbu05.2019.402
M. Smeets, Partnership Technical Assistance Coordination, Muktar Djumaliev
The Kyrgyz Republic joined the WTO twenty years ago with the expectation that structural reforms required for obtaining membership and the application of trade rules would facilitate its transformation from a centrally planned to a market economy and ease its integration into the WTO multilateral trading system. It completed its accession process in record time, liberalized its economy considerably, reduced tariffs significantly, and made substantial commitments in a broad range of services sectors. It adopted legislation in all areas required for WTO membership and created competitive market access conditions for goods and services. Looking back at two decades of WTO membership, there is evidenced that the reform process is paying off. Trade has expanded significantly and new markets have been tapped for imports and exports, thus decreasing its dependency on traditional trading partners. As a result, the economy has grown rapidly. At the same time, many challenges remain to further diversify the economy, take better advantage of opportunities offered in the services trade, attract foreign direct investment, and fully implement all WTO related laws, rules, and regulations. The reform process continues to be essential to Kyrgyzstan’s economic policies to deepen and solidify its integration into the world trading system.
吉尔吉斯共和国20年前加入了世贸组织,当时期望获得成员资格所需的结构改革和贸易规则的适用将促进它从中央计划经济向市场经济的转变,并使它更容易融入世贸组织多边贸易制度。它在创纪录的时间内完成了加入进程,大幅开放了经济,大幅降低了关税,并在广泛的服务部门作出了实质性承诺。它通过了加入世贸组织所需的所有领域的立法,并为货物和服务创造了竞争性的市场准入条件。回顾中国加入世贸组织20年的历程,有证据表明,改革进程正在取得成效。贸易显著扩大,为进出口开辟了新的市场,从而减少了对传统贸易伙伴的依赖。因此,经济迅速增长。与此同时,在进一步实现经济多元化、更好地利用服务贸易机遇、吸引外商直接投资、全面落实世界贸易组织相关法律法规等方面仍面临诸多挑战。改革进程对吉尔吉斯斯坦深化和巩固其融入世界贸易体系的经济政策仍然至关重要。
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引用次数: 1
Keynes vs. Hayek Debates: Rethinking in the Light of Contemporary Macroeconomics 凯恩斯与哈耶克之争:当代宏观经济学视角下的反思
IF 0.5 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.21638/spbu05.2019.206
A. Kavaliou
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引用次数: 0
Macro-drivers and Over-investment of Russian Companies 宏观驱动因素与俄罗斯企业过度投资
IF 0.5 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.21638/spbu05.2019.408
V. Cherkasova, Yana Piankova, UniCredit Bank
A consideration of investment activity in relation to macroeconomic factors suggests that companies have an optimal investment policy. In the majority of studies that analyze companies’ investment activities, attention has been focused mainly on the influence of internal factors as they are manageable, and less has been paid to external factors. In the Russian real-ity, since this may result in bankruptcy, over-investment occurs less frequently than under-investment. Therefore, the main question is: What has a bigger impact on over-investment, macroeconomic factors or internal factors? The goal of our study is to establish macro-drivers as having the strongest impact on the likelihood of over-investment in Russian companies. To measure the influence of macro-drivers, a binary choice regression model is estimated on the basis of panel data. The results reveal that the biggest impact on the probability of over-invest-ment was oil price volatility, decreasing it by 38 %. Exchange rate volatility was second place (–29 %), and GDP growth rate and inflation have an inconsequential influence (7 % and less than –1 % respectively). The analysis of the speed of adjustment to target levels of investment shows that, in the macroeconomic environment Russia experienced in 2012–2017, companies would have target levels of investment, adjustment to which would occur gradually, over a period of around 2 to 5 years, depending on the industry.
考虑到投资活动与宏观经济因素的关系,表明公司有一个最优的投资政策。在大多数分析公司投资活动的研究中,主要关注内部因素的影响,因为它们是可管理的,对外部因素的关注较少。在俄罗斯的现实中,由于这可能导致破产,过度投资比投资不足发生的频率要低。因此,主要问题是:宏观经济因素和内部因素,哪个对过度投资的影响更大?我们研究的目标是确定对俄罗斯公司过度投资可能性影响最大的宏观驱动因素。为了衡量宏观驱动因素的影响,在面板数据的基础上估计了一个二元选择回归模型。结果表明,油价波动对过度投资概率的影响最大,使其降低了38%。汇率波动排在第二位(- 29%),GDP增长率和通货膨胀的影响不大(分别为7%和不到- 1%)。对投资目标水平调整速度的分析表明,在2012-2017年俄罗斯经历的宏观经济环境中,企业将有投资目标水平,调整将在2至5年左右的时间内逐步进行,具体取决于行业。
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引用次数: 0
Estimation of Cost Efficiency in Non-parametric Frontier Models 非参数前沿模型的成本效率估计
IF 0.5 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2017-12-01 DOI: 10.21638/SPBU05.2019.101
G. Besstremyannaya, J. Simm, S. Golovan
The paper proposes a bootstrap methodology for robust estimation of cost efficiency in data envelopment analysis. Our algorithm re-samples "naive" input-oriented efficiency scores, rescales original inputs to bring them to the frontier, and then re-estimates cost efficiency scores for the rescaled inputs. We consider the cases with absence and presence of environmental variables. Simulation analyses with multi-input multi-output production function demonstrate consistency of the new algorithm in terms of the coverage of the confidence intervals for true cost efficiency. Finally, we offer real data estimates for Japanese banking industry. Using the nationwide sample of Japanese banks in 2009, we show that the bias of cost efficiency scores may be linked to the bank charter and the presence of the environmental variables in the model. A package `rDEA', developed in the R language, is available from the GitHub and CRAN repository.
本文提出了一种用于数据包络分析中成本效率稳健估计的bootstrap方法。我们的算法对“幼稚”的面向输入的效率分数进行重新采样,重新缩放原始输入以将其带到前沿,然后重新估计重新缩放输入的成本效率分数。我们考虑不存在和存在环境变量的情况。多输入多输出生产函数的仿真分析表明,新算法在真实成本效率的置信区间覆盖方面是一致的。最后,我们提供了日本银行业的真实数据估计。利用2009年日本银行的全国样本,我们发现成本效率得分的偏差可能与银行章程和模型中环境变量的存在有关。GitHub和CRAN存储库中提供了一个用R语言开发的包“rDEA”。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
Vestnik Sankt-Peterburgskogo Universiteta-Ekonomika-St Petersburg University Journal of Economic Studies
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