Pub Date : 2021-01-01DOI: 10.21638/SPBU05.2021.106
M. Voskanyan, A. Galstyan
This article explores currency regulation in the EAEU countries for the harmonization of currency policies in the context of economic integration. The object of the study is currency regulation in countries of Eurasian integration. The main hypothesis is that EAEU member countries are not ready for currency integration, due to the presence of many macroeconomic distortions in their economies. The authors assess the possibility of creating a monetary union by analyzing and evaluating key criteria for currency integration as known in the scholarly literature. For this goal, the authors conducted a literature review of the key prerequisites for currency integration, including the experience in the countries of the Eurozone. Then the authors analyze currency regulation in EAEU countries for meeting key criteria for currency integration. At this stage, the authors evaluate key factors of currency integration by EAEU member countries. The theoretical and methodological basis of the study was classic and modern approaches in the field of monetary and currency regulation—in particular, the research of modern analysts of the International Monetary Fund, the largest Central Banks of the world, and well-known experts of the field. The research results showed the inexpediency of creating a currency union within the Euroasian economic space at this stage.
{"title":"Exchange rate regulation in economic unions: The case of Euroasian Economic Union","authors":"M. Voskanyan, A. Galstyan","doi":"10.21638/SPBU05.2021.106","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21638/SPBU05.2021.106","url":null,"abstract":"This article explores currency regulation in the EAEU countries for the harmonization of currency policies in the context of economic integration. The object of the study is currency regulation in countries of Eurasian integration. The main hypothesis is that EAEU member countries are not ready for currency integration, due to the presence of many macroeconomic distortions in their economies. The authors assess the possibility of creating a monetary union by analyzing and evaluating key criteria for currency integration as known in the scholarly literature. For this goal, the authors conducted a literature review of the key prerequisites for currency integration, including the experience in the countries of the Eurozone. Then the authors analyze currency regulation in EAEU countries for meeting key criteria for currency integration. At this stage, the authors evaluate key factors of currency integration by EAEU member countries. The theoretical and methodological basis of the study was classic and modern approaches in the field of monetary and currency regulation—in particular, the research of modern analysts of the International Monetary Fund, the largest Central Banks of the world, and well-known experts of the field. The research results showed the inexpediency of creating a currency union within the Euroasian economic space at this stage.","PeriodicalId":41730,"journal":{"name":"Vestnik Sankt-Peterburgskogo Universiteta-Ekonomika-St Petersburg University Journal of Economic Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67781404","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-01-01DOI: 10.21638/spbu05.2021.206
D. Tretyakov, N. Fokin
Due to the fact that at the end of 2014 the Central Bank made the transition to a new monetary policy regime for Russia — the inflation targeting regime, the problem of forecasting inflation rates became more relevant than ever. In the new monetary policy regime, it is important for the Bank of Russia to estimate the future inflation rate as quickly as possible in order to take measures to return inflation to the target level. In addition, for effective monetary policy, the households must trust the actions of monetary authorities and they must be aware of the future dynamics of inflation. Thus, to manage inflationary expectations of economic agents, the Central Bank should actively use the information channel, publish accurate forecasts of consumer price growth. The aim of this work is to build a model for nowcasting, as well as short-term forecasting of the rate of Russian inflation using high-frequency data. Using this type of data in models for forecasting is very promising, since this approach allows to use more information about the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators. The paper shows that using MIDAS model with weekly frequency series (RUB/USD exchange rate, the interbank rate MIACR, oil prices) has more accurate forecast of monthly inflation compared to several basic models, which only use low-frequency data.
{"title":"Does the high-frequency data is helpful for forecasting Russian inflation?","authors":"D. Tretyakov, N. Fokin","doi":"10.21638/spbu05.2021.206","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21638/spbu05.2021.206","url":null,"abstract":"Due to the fact that at the end of 2014 the Central Bank made the transition to a new monetary policy regime for Russia — the inflation targeting regime, the problem of forecasting inflation rates became more relevant than ever. In the new monetary policy regime, it is important for the Bank of Russia to estimate the future inflation rate as quickly as possible in order to take measures to return inflation to the target level. In addition, for effective monetary policy, the households must trust the actions of monetary authorities and they must be aware of the future dynamics of inflation. Thus, to manage inflationary expectations of economic agents, the Central Bank should actively use the information channel, publish accurate forecasts of consumer price growth. The aim of this work is to build a model for nowcasting, as well as short-term forecasting of the rate of Russian inflation using high-frequency data. Using this type of data in models for forecasting is very promising, since this approach allows to use more information about the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators. The paper shows that using MIDAS model with weekly frequency series (RUB/USD exchange rate, the interbank rate MIACR, oil prices) has more accurate forecast of monthly inflation compared to several basic models, which only use low-frequency data.","PeriodicalId":41730,"journal":{"name":"Vestnik Sankt-Peterburgskogo Universiteta-Ekonomika-St Petersburg University Journal of Economic Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67782264","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-01-01DOI: 10.21638/spbu05.2021.306
S. Nefedov
The article is devoted to the analysis of the reasons for Russia’s economic lagging behind during the Great Divergence. The author tests the well-known hypotheses that industrial development was hampered by the opposition of the nobility and the cheap labor of serfs. Upon closer examination, these assumptions are not confirmed. The economic lag was primarily due to the lag in railway construction, which in the 19th century was the main driver of the development of heavy industry. The article analyzes the policy in the field of railway construction during the reign of Emperor Nicholas I (1825–1855). It is shown that the formation of this policy took place in a conflict between the emperor and the ministerial bureaucracy, headed by the Minister of Finance, Count Kankrin. While Nicholas I was guided by military-strategic considerations, the ministers proceeded from economic interests. Economic calculations pointed to the unprofitability of railways compared to transportation by waterways. The technical conservatism of the bureaucracy did not allow adequately assessing the prospects for new technology and the possibility of reducing the cost of transportation in the future. The article analyzes the difference between economic policy in Russia and in England, the United States, France and Germany, which led to the lag of Russia. In the West (with the exception of France), economic policy developed spontaneously on the basis of private initiative. The Russian bureaucracy blocked private initiative, it sought to preserve the capital stored in state banks to finance the great power politic. On the other hand, the railroad “mania” in England was accompanied by a speculative boom and the ruin of many railroad companies. For the Russian bureaucracy, this was another argument in favor of refusing to attract private capital. Meanwhile, “mania” promoted the mobilization of capital from small shareholders for railway construction and spurred the development of industry. Another way of using controlled private initiative was possible, which was implemented in France in the “Legrand project”. But the Russian bureaucracy refused to use private initiative, which doomed the country to an economic lag.
{"title":"On the formation of the phenomenon of the economic lag of Russia in the first half of the 19th century","authors":"S. Nefedov","doi":"10.21638/spbu05.2021.306","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21638/spbu05.2021.306","url":null,"abstract":"The article is devoted to the analysis of the reasons for Russia’s economic lagging behind during the Great Divergence. The author tests the well-known hypotheses that industrial development was hampered by the opposition of the nobility and the cheap labor of serfs. Upon closer examination, these assumptions are not confirmed. The economic lag was primarily due to the lag in railway construction, which in the 19th century was the main driver of the development of heavy industry. The article analyzes the policy in the field of railway construction during the reign of Emperor Nicholas I (1825–1855). It is shown that the formation of this policy took place in a conflict between the emperor and the ministerial bureaucracy, headed by the Minister of Finance, Count Kankrin. While Nicholas I was guided by military-strategic considerations, the ministers proceeded from economic interests. Economic calculations pointed to the unprofitability of railways compared to transportation by waterways. The technical conservatism of the bureaucracy did not allow adequately assessing the prospects for new technology and the possibility of reducing the cost of transportation in the future. The article analyzes the difference between economic policy in Russia and in England, the United States, France and Germany, which led to the lag of Russia. In the West (with the exception of France), economic policy developed spontaneously on the basis of private initiative. The Russian bureaucracy blocked private initiative, it sought to preserve the capital stored in state banks to finance the great power politic. On the other hand, the railroad “mania” in England was accompanied by a speculative boom and the ruin of many railroad companies. For the Russian bureaucracy, this was another argument in favor of refusing to attract private capital. Meanwhile, “mania” promoted the mobilization of capital from small shareholders for railway construction and spurred the development of industry. Another way of using controlled private initiative was possible, which was implemented in France in the “Legrand project”. But the Russian bureaucracy refused to use private initiative, which doomed the country to an economic lag.","PeriodicalId":41730,"journal":{"name":"Vestnik Sankt-Peterburgskogo Universiteta-Ekonomika-St Petersburg University Journal of Economic Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67782554","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-01-01DOI: 10.21638/spbu05.2021.207
S. Belozyorov, O. Sokolovska, A. Faizova
The pandemic of the new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has a huge impact on the global economy, significantly affecting the functioning of all its sectors. In this regard, the search for ways to minimize the negative consequences of such risks is of particular relevance. The article presents the results of a systematic analysis of scientific publications by leading foreign and Russian authors on various aspects of the risks arising from viral threats, as well as ways to reduce the negative consequences of such risks. In particular, studies that evaluate the impact on the economy of various factors that occur during and after epidemics are examined. The analysis of publications showed that researchers distinguish the following factors: 1) the social system of the state; 2) government expenses on the fight against the epidemic; 3) the role of international organizations in combating epidemics in individual countries. Further, various approaches to the construction of models describing the spread of biological threats reflected in publications of representatives of various scientific fields, in particular medical and economicmathematical, including actuarial, modeling are analyzed. Three approaches to modeling the development of infectious diseases are considered, which differ both in the apparatus used and in the predominant field of application of the corresponding models. Particular attention is paid to the contribution that insurance research can make to the development of new theoretical approaches to mitigate the negative economic consequences of COVID-19. The authors distinguish three areas: 1) the use of actuarial models for the analysis and assessment of the risks of biological threats; 2) the use of relevant insurance products in the insurance market as an epidemic risk management tool that provides financial protection; 3) the use of innovative technologies in rendering insurance services (InsurTech).
{"title":"Biological hazard risk studies: a comparative analysis of approaches and the role of insurance","authors":"S. Belozyorov, O. Sokolovska, A. Faizova","doi":"10.21638/spbu05.2021.207","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21638/spbu05.2021.207","url":null,"abstract":"The pandemic of the new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has a huge impact on the global economy, significantly affecting the functioning of all its sectors. In this regard, the search for ways to minimize the negative consequences of such risks is of particular relevance. The article presents the results of a systematic analysis of scientific publications by leading foreign and Russian authors on various aspects of the risks arising from viral threats, as well as ways to reduce the negative consequences of such risks. In particular, studies that evaluate the impact on the economy of various factors that occur during and after epidemics are examined. The analysis of publications showed that researchers distinguish the following factors: 1) the social system of the state; 2) government expenses on the fight against the epidemic; 3) the role of international organizations in combating epidemics in individual countries. Further, various approaches to the construction of models describing the spread of biological threats reflected in publications of representatives of various scientific fields, in particular medical and economicmathematical, including actuarial, modeling are analyzed. Three approaches to modeling the development of infectious diseases are considered, which differ both in the apparatus used and in the predominant field of application of the corresponding models. Particular attention is paid to the contribution that insurance research can make to the development of new theoretical approaches to mitigate the negative economic consequences of COVID-19. The authors distinguish three areas: 1) the use of actuarial models for the analysis and assessment of the risks of biological threats; 2) the use of relevant insurance products in the insurance market as an epidemic risk management tool that provides financial protection; 3) the use of innovative technologies in rendering insurance services (InsurTech).","PeriodicalId":41730,"journal":{"name":"Vestnik Sankt-Peterburgskogo Universiteta-Ekonomika-St Petersburg University Journal of Economic Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67782383","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-01-01DOI: 10.21638/spbu05.2021.101
A. Shastitko, O. Markova, A. Meleshkina
The article provides an analysis of counterparties’ benefits and costs within the framework of regulatory contracts the object of which is structural prescriptions issued by the antimonopoly authority controlling mergers and acquisitions. The purpose of the study is to identify discrete institutional alternatives for creating credible commitments in regulatory contracts with the participation of the monitoring trustee (taking into account the risk of distorted incentives).The object of the study is the regulatory contract between the regulator, the trustee, and the company (merger participant) in the case of divestiture, since this situation is the most sensitive in terms of setting incentives and risks of opportunism. The subject of the study is credible commitments in such regulatory contracts. The analysis is based on methods of new institutional economics and of law and economics, and it employs mathematical modeling. The comparative analysis of discrete institutional alternatives is used as the main methodological approach, and it is based on an analysis of action coordination forms and harmonization of economic agents’ expectations — in this case, the antimonopoly agency, a trustee, and companies involved in mergers and acquisitions transactions. Advantages and disadvantages of the following contracting options were identified: independent monitoring by the regulator;monitoring with the involvement of a trustee whose activities are financed by the competition authority or the company; a hybrid approach financing trustee activities; distribution of income from penalties as a way for financing trustee activities; and a system of pledges in a tripartite contract. The article also defines the conditions for credible commitments within the framework of regulatory contracts. The results of this research can be used as a guideline for institutional design in the Russian antitrust enforcement system.
{"title":"Regulatory contract usage in case of antitrust mergers and acquisitions control","authors":"A. Shastitko, O. Markova, A. Meleshkina","doi":"10.21638/spbu05.2021.101","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21638/spbu05.2021.101","url":null,"abstract":"The article provides an analysis of counterparties’ benefits and costs within the framework of regulatory contracts the object of which is structural prescriptions issued by the antimonopoly authority controlling mergers and acquisitions. The purpose of the study is to identify discrete institutional alternatives for creating credible commitments in regulatory contracts with the participation of the monitoring trustee (taking into account the risk of distorted incentives).The object of the study is the regulatory contract between the regulator, the trustee, and the company (merger participant) in the case of divestiture, since this situation is the most sensitive in terms of setting incentives and risks of opportunism. The subject of the study is credible commitments in such regulatory contracts. The analysis is based on methods of new institutional economics and of law and economics, and it employs mathematical modeling. The comparative analysis of discrete institutional alternatives is used as the main methodological approach, and it is based on an analysis of action coordination forms and harmonization of economic agents’ expectations — in this case, the antimonopoly agency, a trustee, and companies involved in mergers and acquisitions transactions. Advantages and disadvantages of the following contracting options were identified: independent monitoring by the regulator;monitoring with the involvement of a trustee whose activities are financed by the competition authority or the company; a hybrid approach financing trustee activities; distribution of income from penalties as a way for financing trustee activities; and a system of pledges in a tripartite contract. The article also defines the conditions for credible commitments within the framework of regulatory contracts. The results of this research can be used as a guideline for institutional design in the Russian antitrust enforcement system.","PeriodicalId":41730,"journal":{"name":"Vestnik Sankt-Peterburgskogo Universiteta-Ekonomika-St Petersburg University Journal of Economic Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67781361","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-01-01DOI: 10.21638/spbu05.2021.107
A. Stolyarov, I. Sorokin
Investment strategies related to the use of high-dividend shares have been known for more than 30 years. Despite this, they remain relevant today. A large number of studies on this topic are devoted to studying the effectiveness of high-dividend strategies within one market, and cross-country studies evaluate a small number of markets. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the effectiveness of high-dividend strategies in the markets of all APEC economies, with the exception of Brunei and Papua New Guinea. The time horizon of the study is from 2002 to the present. We applied well-known modifications of the classic high-dividend strategy and modifications developed by the authors. We test hypotheses regarding the influence of various factors, such as the number of shares in a portfolio, the month of portfolio formation,classifying the economy as developed or developing, and the return on high-dividend portfolios. We also test the hypothesis that the significance of the high-dividend anomaly exists in various markets, but decreases over time. The results show different levels of effectiveness of high-dividend strategies and the different impact of the factors on the markets of developed and developing APEC economies. We found that high-dividend strategies are generally more effective in emerging markets, but in case of market growth, high-dividend strategies increase their abnormal returns only in developed markets. At the same time, the authors conclude that the number of shares in a high-dividend portfolio directly affects the result of its work. The results have theoretical and practical value, and can be applied in compiling a real investment portfolio.
{"title":"The evaluation of the effectiveness of high-dividend strategies in Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation economies","authors":"A. Stolyarov, I. Sorokin","doi":"10.21638/spbu05.2021.107","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21638/spbu05.2021.107","url":null,"abstract":"Investment strategies related to the use of high-dividend shares have been known for more than 30 years. Despite this, they remain relevant today. A large number of studies on this topic are devoted to studying the effectiveness of high-dividend strategies within one market, and cross-country studies evaluate a small number of markets. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the effectiveness of high-dividend strategies in the markets of all APEC economies, with the exception of Brunei and Papua New Guinea. The time horizon of the study is from 2002 to the present. We applied well-known modifications of the classic high-dividend strategy and modifications developed by the authors. We test hypotheses regarding the influence of various factors, such as the number of shares in a portfolio, the month of portfolio formation,classifying the economy as developed or developing, and the return on high-dividend portfolios. We also test the hypothesis that the significance of the high-dividend anomaly exists in various markets, but decreases over time. The results show different levels of effectiveness of high-dividend strategies and the different impact of the factors on the markets of developed and developing APEC economies. We found that high-dividend strategies are generally more effective in emerging markets, but in case of market growth, high-dividend strategies increase their abnormal returns only in developed markets. At the same time, the authors conclude that the number of shares in a high-dividend portfolio directly affects the result of its work. The results have theoretical and practical value, and can be applied in compiling a real investment portfolio.","PeriodicalId":41730,"journal":{"name":"Vestnik Sankt-Peterburgskogo Universiteta-Ekonomika-St Petersburg University Journal of Economic Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67781546","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-01-01DOI: 10.21638/spbu05.2021.401
Alexey Vorontsovskiy, L. Vyunenko
The article considers the possibility of constructing forecasts for macroeconomic indicators taking into account the turning points in their dynamics trends. The calculations are performed on the base of a discrete approximation for the constraints of a simple economic growth stochastic model using the Monte Carlo method. In the first part, the authors analyze the problems of justifying turning point indicators and show that there is no single approach to their definition. Changes in GDP, oil prices and other indicators often serve as such indicators. In the second part, the authors propose to relate turning points to a change in the value of one of the numerical parameters of the growth model under consideration — the capital depreciation rate. To determine the parameters of the model, a special calibration procedure is proposed, based on solving the optimization problem according to the criterion of the minimum discrepancy between the average calculated and actual trajectories of GDP and Consumption over the calibration period. In the third part, experimental simulations are performed taking into account turning points according to the data of the economies of Finland, Cyprus and Japan. Three turning points are allocated for Cyprus and Japan, and one for Finland. Forecasts of the GDP and Consumption dynamics for these countries at current and constant prices of 2010 are constructed. For all three countries under consideration, the results of simulations show that indirect accounting of turning points by amendment of the capital depreciation rate allows significantly improving the quality of forecasts based on the average calculated trajectory, taking into account the specified confidence interval for the selected forecast period.
{"title":"Forecasting economic development taking into account several turning points: Indicators, model calibration, simulation computations","authors":"Alexey Vorontsovskiy, L. Vyunenko","doi":"10.21638/spbu05.2021.401","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21638/spbu05.2021.401","url":null,"abstract":"The article considers the possibility of constructing forecasts for macroeconomic indicators taking into account the turning points in their dynamics trends. The calculations are performed on the base of a discrete approximation for the constraints of a simple economic growth stochastic model using the Monte Carlo method. In the first part, the authors analyze the problems of justifying turning point indicators and show that there is no single approach to their definition. Changes in GDP, oil prices and other indicators often serve as such indicators. In the second part, the authors propose to relate turning points to a change in the value of one of the numerical parameters of the growth model under consideration — the capital depreciation rate. To determine the parameters of the model, a special calibration procedure is proposed, based on solving the optimization problem according to the criterion of the minimum discrepancy between the average calculated and actual trajectories of GDP and Consumption over the calibration period. In the third part, experimental simulations are performed taking into account turning points according to the data of the economies of Finland, Cyprus and Japan. Three turning points are allocated for Cyprus and Japan, and one for Finland. Forecasts of the GDP and Consumption dynamics for these countries at current and constant prices of 2010 are constructed. For all three countries under consideration, the results of simulations show that indirect accounting of turning points by amendment of the capital depreciation rate allows significantly improving the quality of forecasts based on the average calculated trajectory, taking into account the specified confidence interval for the selected forecast period.","PeriodicalId":41730,"journal":{"name":"Vestnik Sankt-Peterburgskogo Universiteta-Ekonomika-St Petersburg University Journal of Economic Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67782612","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-01-01DOI: 10.21638/spbu05.2021.304
E. Polyakova, Y. Vymyatnina
Expectations of heterogeneous economic agents play a pivotal role in modern macroeconomic theory. Since the standard assumption about a representative fully rational agent and his/her ability to form model-consistent expectations of the underlying process governing real economic outcomes is subject to well-grounded criticism, laboratory experiments are an important tool for gaining new knowledge about the formation of individual expectations. This paper provides an overview of the results of learning-to-forecast experiments based on the New Keynesian model that allow to identify specificities of agents’ expectations formation. These results suggest specific recommendations on ways to increase efficiency of the Central Bank monetary policy. Special attention is paid to agents’ inflation expectations and specificities of applying various types of inflation targeting. The article presents an analysis of the impact of announcing the inflation target on agents’ inflation expectations and the main macroeconomic variables dynamics for two different inflation targeting regimes — strict and flexible. A comparison of point and band versions of inflation targeting is provided for shocks affecting the economy with different intensities. The results of learning-to-forecast experiments presented in the review provide evidence of training and switching between different forecasting heuristics and also indicate the presence of specific cognitive restrictions of agents that extend a certain heuristic rule to all macroeconomic variables for which the forecast is performed.
{"title":"Formation of economic agents’ inflationary expectations and central bank policy effectiveness: Еxperimental approach","authors":"E. Polyakova, Y. Vymyatnina","doi":"10.21638/spbu05.2021.304","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21638/spbu05.2021.304","url":null,"abstract":"Expectations of heterogeneous economic agents play a pivotal role in modern macroeconomic theory. Since the standard assumption about a representative fully rational agent and his/her ability to form model-consistent expectations of the underlying process governing real economic outcomes is subject to well-grounded criticism, laboratory experiments are an important tool for gaining new knowledge about the formation of individual expectations. This paper provides an overview of the results of learning-to-forecast experiments based on the New Keynesian model that allow to identify specificities of agents’ expectations formation. These results suggest specific recommendations on ways to increase efficiency of the Central Bank monetary policy. Special attention is paid to agents’ inflation expectations and specificities of applying various types of inflation targeting. The article presents an analysis of the impact of announcing the inflation target on agents’ inflation expectations and the main macroeconomic variables dynamics for two different inflation targeting regimes — strict and flexible. A comparison of point and band versions of inflation targeting is provided for shocks affecting the economy with different intensities. The results of learning-to-forecast experiments presented in the review provide evidence of training and switching between different forecasting heuristics and also indicate the presence of specific cognitive restrictions of agents that extend a certain heuristic rule to all macroeconomic variables for which the forecast is performed.","PeriodicalId":41730,"journal":{"name":"Vestnik Sankt-Peterburgskogo Universiteta-Ekonomika-St Petersburg University Journal of Economic Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67782535","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-01-01DOI: 10.21638/spbu05.2021.405
E. Fedyunina, L. Oganesyan
This article provides the concept of minimizing transaction expenses for farmland market functioning, based on principles for minimizing transaction expenses on the property rights market developed by R. Coase, O. Williamson, D. North, J. Hodgson, E. Furubotn, original provisions on the dual structure of Russian agricultural land market with full and limited property rights transactions. The comparative institutional analysis of the dual market, transactors of various property types and transaction expense types demonstrates that three stages of full and limited property rights market transaction are characterized by high permanent transaction expenses related to providing data on property rights transaction, negotiations, preparing and signing contracts, as well as formal regulations. Due to high rates of transaction formalization, the full property rights market demonstrates higher expenses than the limited rights market, where expenses for long-term contractual relations are caused mainly by subjective factors and informal restrictions. The amount of expenses is unevenly distributed between transactors depending on land ownership type and form: expenses for state and municipal lands transaction, as well as for shared land ownership, are higher compared to transaction of private property rights. Some high transaction expenses are permanent and establish property rights specification and value, possible to be minimized only with time by amending legal standards and regulations in order to improve market transaction terms. Other expenses are established independently by transactors during the market exchange and can be minimized through indirect regulators changing behavioral aspects of market participants and direct regulators aimed at developing institutional and infrastructural market elements to enhance more effective usage of land resources and improve adaptive efficiency and flexibility of farmland market.
{"title":"The concept of minimization of transaction costs of functioning of the dual market of agricultural lands","authors":"E. Fedyunina, L. Oganesyan","doi":"10.21638/spbu05.2021.405","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21638/spbu05.2021.405","url":null,"abstract":"This article provides the concept of minimizing transaction expenses for farmland market functioning, based on principles for minimizing transaction expenses on the property rights market developed by R. Coase, O. Williamson, D. North, J. Hodgson, E. Furubotn, original provisions on the dual structure of Russian agricultural land market with full and limited property rights transactions. The comparative institutional analysis of the dual market, transactors of various property types and transaction expense types demonstrates that three stages of full and limited property rights market transaction are characterized by high permanent transaction expenses related to providing data on property rights transaction, negotiations, preparing and signing contracts, as well as formal regulations. Due to high rates of transaction formalization, the full property rights market demonstrates higher expenses than the limited rights market, where expenses for long-term contractual relations are caused mainly by subjective factors and informal restrictions. The amount of expenses is unevenly distributed between transactors depending on land ownership type and form: expenses for state and municipal lands transaction, as well as for shared land ownership, are higher compared to transaction of private property rights. Some high transaction expenses are permanent and establish property rights specification and value, possible to be minimized only with time by amending legal standards and regulations in order to improve market transaction terms. Other expenses are established independently by transactors during the market exchange and can be minimized through indirect regulators changing behavioral aspects of market participants and direct regulators aimed at developing institutional and infrastructural market elements to enhance more effective usage of land resources and improve adaptive efficiency and flexibility of farmland market.","PeriodicalId":41730,"journal":{"name":"Vestnik Sankt-Peterburgskogo Universiteta-Ekonomika-St Petersburg University Journal of Economic Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67782178","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-01-01DOI: 10.21638/spbu05.2021.303
S. Petrov
A number of theoretical and applied studies have shown that there is no unambiguous relationship between the market structure, expressed in particular by the firms size, and firms innovation activity. Understanding the nature of the relationship between the market structure, the firms size and their behavior allows us to raise the level of justification for both business strategies and innovation policy, which is also relevant in the context of the digital transformation of the Russian economy. The paper is aimed at considering the problem of an influence of a market structure with due regard for the peculiarities of their industries on firms innovation activity in Russia for the period 2006–2016. This period was chosen due to the transition to a new Russian National Classifier of Economic Activities edition and the beginning of active Russian economy digitalization in 2017. The hypothesis of the study is that in Russia, under the impact of a number of events, the influence of the firms size on their innovative activity in various sectors of the economy is becoming more acute. By building pooled and panel data models it was shown, that at the studied stage of country development a positive relationship between the average firms size in the industry and their innovation activity can be observed. But some conditions for a stronger growth of innovation activity in industries with firms of smaller sizes are emerging and it indicates a change in the Russian economy structure. As a result of assessing the linkage of the innovation activity intensity and firm size, it can be concluded that there is no connection with belonging to the type of economic activity, i. e. the relationship between the share of costs for technological innovations and the size of firms in the Russian economy has no industry specifics. The further development of this study consist in a more study of the factors that determine the results obtained, the development of recommendations for the formation of a working innovation system in Russia, as well as in the field of antimonopoly regulation on the issue of entry barriers.
{"title":"The relationship between the market structure, the firms size and their innovative activity in the sectors of the Russian economy: Experience in industry-specific competitive analysis","authors":"S. Petrov","doi":"10.21638/spbu05.2021.303","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21638/spbu05.2021.303","url":null,"abstract":"A number of theoretical and applied studies have shown that there is no unambiguous relationship between the market structure, expressed in particular by the firms size, and firms innovation activity. Understanding the nature of the relationship between the market structure, the firms size and their behavior allows us to raise the level of justification for both business strategies and innovation policy, which is also relevant in the context of the digital transformation of the Russian economy. The paper is aimed at considering the problem of an influence of a market structure with due regard for the peculiarities of their industries on firms innovation activity in Russia for the period 2006–2016. This period was chosen due to the transition to a new Russian National Classifier of Economic Activities edition and the beginning of active Russian economy digitalization in 2017. The hypothesis of the study is that in Russia, under the impact of a number of events, the influence of the firms size on their innovative activity in various sectors of the economy is becoming more acute. By building pooled and panel data models it was shown, that at the studied stage of country development a positive relationship between the average firms size in the industry and their innovation activity can be observed. But some conditions for a stronger growth of innovation activity in industries with firms of smaller sizes are emerging and it indicates a change in the Russian economy structure. As a result of assessing the linkage of the innovation activity intensity and firm size, it can be concluded that there is no connection with belonging to the type of economic activity, i. e. the relationship between the share of costs for technological innovations and the size of firms in the Russian economy has no industry specifics. The further development of this study consist in a more study of the factors that determine the results obtained, the development of recommendations for the formation of a working innovation system in Russia, as well as in the field of antimonopoly regulation on the issue of entry barriers.","PeriodicalId":41730,"journal":{"name":"Vestnik Sankt-Peterburgskogo Universiteta-Ekonomika-St Petersburg University Journal of Economic Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67782457","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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